Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: How Bad Is The US-China Trade Deficit?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: How Bad Is The US-China Trade Deficit?
The US runs a trade deficit with China of $375bn. It’s a staggering number, larger than the economies of Ireland or Israel. Little wonder than Donald Trump frets that the US is being taken advantage of.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/10/none-will-be-spared-students-fear-reprisals-over-bangladesh-unrest
https://twitter.com/JeremyDuns/status/1028032459059945474
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656
Death by a thousand cuts.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6048807/Photos-Labour-leader-Corbyn-tribute-event-Palestine-martyrs-linked-Munich-massacre.html
There's a bit of a myth that China runs this massive trade surplus, and it's not - in aggregate - true. It's current account as a percentage of GDP is 1.4%, which is lower than Spain (1.7%), Austria (2.1%), Italy (2.9%) and a host of others.
Even in US Dollar terms, China's surplus is surprisingly small; it's well below Germany or Japan, and is less than twice that of the Netherlands - which is not a very large country. We only really fixate on China's surplus because of the insane US-China number (which is rather misleading).
Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.
That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.
He's interrupted the enemy making a mistake. Deliberately.
(Oh, and welcome from sunny Falkirk.)
(I might be joking about the 'sunny' bit.)
However, that still means the media has to either be inept or openly partisan if they don't give the Corbyn story (the most recent one about the graves) substantial prominence.
As an aside, it's disturbing Cressida Dick decided her officers should look into whether Boris committed a criminal offence. As Elizabeth I said to Lord Melchitt, we can't lock people up for being stupid. If we imprisoned people for being stupid Nursie would've been in prison all her life.
Also, aren't the far left trying to permanently embugger the rules so that they're all but guaranteed another far left candidate next time? Corbyn may want to wait for that to go through, if possible.
Mr. B2, hmm.
I think you will further find Alistair Darling was managing the campaign.
I also think you will find the side Labour were supporting in the Indyref won by ten points.
Thats not a defence btw, thats what us Labour activists will be told to say on the doorstep if it gets raised...
Corbyn's acolytes show all the critical thinking of Brian's followers when they asked: "How shall we **** off, o lord?"
It's amazing how supporting Corbyn corrodes the soul of otherwise decent people. I hope Fleet Street's finest are well on their way to contacting some of the blokes in that photo to show them what they are turning themselves into by defending this dismal individual.
Can I gently point out however that the gap after the referendum was actually called was around 7-12 points, with a few outliers either way. So it doesn't look like the campaigns - even the cakeist campaign by Yes, which offered full independence, free trade, EU membership (ironically) and a currency union - made a significant difference?
A salutary reminder that we all get it wrong sometimes.
'What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for the first time in years LAB has a credible alternative First Minister'
https://tinyurl.com/q24mmhc
The first time we get a run of single figure No leads is March-April 2014.
If you want a grapah on this to show how dumb the statement that there was no change in the polling on independence then I would be happy to oblige.
I do sympathise with your predicament, but unless Corbyn leaves/is removed there'll come a point where the only thing your subs and any door knocking you do will be on his behalf.
I don’t think you understand the concept of political dog whistle.
What time period are you talking about? I'm going from Edinburgh agreement onwards.
MPs also fit into these categories since precisely 1 now ex Lab MP don't officially believe he should be PM. The rest do, no matter how much some of them will cry crocodile tears at such stories.
Even then in May 2014 saw a poll lead of 18%, June saw poll leads of 17, 14, 19%, July and August leads of 13%*3 and 20%.
It was only September where the lead collapse to consistent single figures (and occasional Yes leads), almost all of which were below your 7% lower boind. The notion the polling was static is simply wrong.
And this isn't a 'they're all the same' argument, but it is such an easy fallback to have.
For Tories, the Brexit civil war is teetering on the edge of a full-blown culture war, and this week’s Boris episode captured that neatly. For centrists, whether Labour or Tory, what hurts most is the failure of big figures to articulate their position with confidence and skill. MPs despair as Tory high-ups neurotically control the smallest things but freeze when confronted with the bigger picture.
The image of party chairman Brandon Lewis evading TV cameras this week, seemingly having lost his voice over Mr Johnson, captured that failure. Labour centrists endure a mirror image of this, paralytically miserable at their inability to edge the party into a tougher position on antisemitism.
And who would be a Lib Dem? These are all symptoms of the same thing: the low wattage of those who reach the front rank of British politics. Culture wars are becoming easier to fight in Westminster because they obscure the true problem: the sheer lack of quality of those who lead, a topic that can never be discussed in public.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/end-of-days-feel-in-a-westminster-crying-out-for-strong-leadership-7kv3shkmh
I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
It'd be very bad form to reproduce the best (worst) of them, particularly those of extant PBers, but I couldn't resist this. A world view in one post.
Plato Posts: 15,724
December 2014
Dear me
RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…
https://youtu.be/QqCiw0wD44U
I do believe we are past peak Corbyn and he is really damaging the labour brand now
My guess is that a very significant part of the US trade deficit doesn’t really exist. It’s just that the money earned by the likes of Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook and the like is not showing up in the books the way it would if they were minded to pay taxes like other businesses. In real terms I suspect the US is doing much better than the official figures show.
And yet, if we take a step back, doesn’t the picture resolve into something that should be much more worrying? It turns out we are now a country where both major parties are locked in sustained, self-started fights with minority communities. That feels ominous. We are still only in the phoney war of Brexit, after all – the period where the questions are all about who benefits. Who benefited from what even some Brexit voters such as Danny Dyer have decided is turning pear-shaped? Was it Arron Banks? Is it Johnson? Will it be Gove?
If much of history is any guide, we might reasonably fear that once the realities kick in, another phase will follow the period of asking who benefits. And that will be the period where people decide who gets blamed. Who is at the sharp end when things don’t turn out how they were promised? Who is turned against? Who gets it in the neck? It certainly isn’t well-off and socially insulated politicians, however much of a metaphorical pasting they might imagine they take for things that are, after all, their own fault. The weak will suffer. In this context, it is more than a grim symmetry to find significant factions in both major political parties pitting themselves against minority communities. It is an alarm bell.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/10/antisemitism-islamophobia-brexit-boris-johnson-muslim-women-ominous
Obviously don't rule anything out, but come on, push comes to shove stopping the Tories from being the top party 4 elections in a row will be a priority.
(This does presume Corbyn is still there in 4 years, which I don't think is certain even if he is currently safe as houses).
To me, that's relatively strong evidence that he's telling the truth. The idea that they'd hold a commemorative event on the anniversary of one event, and write a press report about it, so that they could cover up secretly commemorating something different, seems a bit farfetched. As far as I can tell, the only evidence to the contrary is that at some point Corbyn was photographed standing near a different grave.
"The Downing Street source said the party is compelled to investigate any complaint."
Even if thousands of letters of complaint come in from members demanding that Theresa May be investigated for bringing the role of Prime Minister into disrepute? But you are "compelled to investigate", Downing Street.....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45153483
That is because May has also won some 2017 Labour voters over to the Tories post Chequers Deal with Yougov to somewhat make up for 2017 Tory voters who have moved to UKIP