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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB stays in the 40s with YouGov as conference season ends
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB stays in the 40s with YouGov as conference season ends
Today’s YouGov is based on fieldwork which started on Tuesday evening and finished late after yesterday – so would have covered the Mili-Mail flare-up and Dave’s big speech yesterday.
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I suspect what the polls over the past 3 weeks really tell us is that most people completely ignore the party conference season and are far more interested in the return of Downton Abbey, Strictly or X Factor than what any politician says.
The pollsters are polling the same group of people over and over again and these people tend to be interested in politics so just how much do they reflect what normal (i.e. non-political junkies) people think or intend to do when they actually have to vote for something.
In any case they don't need 40%
Conversely I wonder if, when the election actually comes, people will be more interested in it, unless we start getting bombarded with "political stuff" from Christmas 2014 until May 2015! I wonder, too, if much of the speculation is habit, since if the Coalition hadn't introduced fixed-term Parliaments we'd probably have had an election by now, and in event us PJ's, plus the political press would have had our antennae twitching every time Vince Cable coughed!
Of course Scotland's an exception this cycle, given the referendum
However, this story from The Daily Mail might amuse.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2441457/Submarine-breaks-surface-Milan-STREET-marketing-stunt-left-bystanders-baffled.html
Mike Smithson"
Hallelujah. Just hope others pay attention to that. Let's wait and see how the dust settles then evaluate the impacts.
No. It's too early to say that.
Pay attention to Mike's words. Wait and see. It is futile to start talking like this for a few weeks. Wait until the shake-out finishes and then we will see where the land lies.
Remember that even the polling impact of a seismic event like Black Wednesday took several weeks, even months, fully to filter through.
"It's too soon to tell."
But as discussed earlier Chou En Lai might not have meant it in the way it was interpreted at the time.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/74916db6-938d-11e0-922e-00144feab49a.html#axzz2gdd77ive
Actions speak (much) louder than words and its what politicians DO to change our lives, perception of the nation and the prospects for the future which matters.
PMs can do that, LotO's cannot.
One thing is clear, though- political leaders are like objects - they exert gravity, which attracts others towards them. The larger the object, the greater their pull and the larger, more numerous and further away the objects are over which they exert their influence and attraction.
[As more objects get attracted to the ever-growing central mass, more and more spinning takes place and more and more heat and light are generated, along with regular nuclear explosions beneath the surface - but that's another story!]
Currently we have TWO political centres of gravity - Salmond and Farage.
The former (Red Dwarf) has a small collection of rocks circling him, but they're likely to impact into the centre in just 12 months' time.
The latter is a Main Sequence star, with at least one planet (Cameron) an asteroid (RedEd) and a considerable volume of inter-planetary dust (Clegg, Lucas) circling ever-faster around the centre.
The key point (before I take the analogy too far!) is that political leaders ARE the centre-ground of politics - they do NOT 'move to the centre-ground'. That was true of Wilson, MrsT, Blair - and NOT true of Heath, Callaghan, Brown - or Foot, Kinnock, Hague or ID-S, either.
And nor is it true of either Cameron or RedEd: and THAT'S our national tragedy.
September (vs August)
Con: 32.9 (+0.1)
Lab: 38.5 (-0.1)
LibD: 9.4 (-0.4)
UKIP: 12.0 (-)
Apart from the LibDems - who are also well within MOE - I think 'flat' would be the most accurate description.
The Conferences, in so far as they have been noticed (hardly at all) have not affected people's lives......
Are you willing to pass your business plans for the next three years to your local council, so that if you don't meet your targets, they can choose to take that part of your business away from you?
If not, why should building companies be subjected to such behaviour?
In fact, it's worse than that. It can take a year or two for planning to go through. That means you have to try and predict the state of your business for around five years ahead, to see if you'll be able to go through with the development. That means knowing whether the finance will be available in a future market.
So would you support it in your own business?
Titters......
"I'm not sure that comparing UKIP to the racist Powell or the anti semitic Holocaust denier Le Pen is necessarily useful."
I don't know about useful but quite smart politics. At the moment Miliband-by some very smart positioning-has colonized everything from the centre to all points left. Much of it territory occupied by the Lib Dems during their progressive period.
If they cede that completely they're back to five MPs in a taxi plus a few stragglers in Cornwall. Showing their left wing credentials is what they have to do
Repeating large parts of articles will cause posts to be deleted by me or the moderators to avoid legal actions.
I've already had to deal with 8 specific enforcement notices.
It is okay to link and copy a paragraph to give the general sense. Anything more could land me trouble
(*) I have seen nothing that indicates this proposed law cannot be used against small builders.
Time will tell.
My understanding was that 3 paras was 'fair usage' - if we now have a site policy of one para then I will comply with that.
FYI I included the Sept30/Oct 1 data......
What's your "analysis" then?
This doesn't seem so unlikely after reading this
Revealed: Ed Miliband's Bollinger bolsheviks
Despite the class-war rhetoric, Labour’s elite is still intensely comfortable with being filthy rich — and it’s becoming ever more so - http://www.spectator.co.uk/spectator-life/spectator-life-life/9022871/socialist-climbing/
By next Monday, <<10% would be able to recall a single policy from ANY Party.
Polling on 'Who is your MP?' and 'Who is the Cabinet Minister responsible for...?' let alone 'Who is the LotO?' and 'Name 10 members of the Shadow Cabinet?' show that politics and politicians are of minimal interest to anyone on the (not incorrect) principle that they make no difference whatsoever to any of our lives and have no solutions to any of the manifest problems besetting the country - all of which they, and their predecessors - created and were 100% responsible for.
If a politician could end congestion on the M25, over-crowding on commuter trains, make summers like 2000-2006 the norm or stop immigration dead, they'd be listened to and respected. As it is, they cannot and could not - so they're regarded as irrelevant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CnkCu7N-J0M
But this leads down to, IMO, the biggest question of all, and that is a democracy only works if the electorate can make informed choices. Many cannot.
"Revealed: Ed Miliband's Bollinger bolsheviks"
From Pol Pot to Rothschild. When will the riight wing press sort out their attack lines and coordinate them coherently?
On a betting point, this makes "no polling crossover in 2013" likely. Hard to see any great Tory-boosting events between now and New Year.
The general problem of the Tory conference was that it was negative and grim in tone - the highlights apart from the marriage allowance were mostly that they were going to smack someone - immigrants, young people, anyone on long-term benefits. This was consistent enough to be deliberate, and perhaps they are just going for the "Things are tough, we should make someone (else) pay" vote. That vote certainly exists, but it's not IMO an election-winning approach.
The under 25s stuff seems nasty to me.
People are all for persecuting unpopular groups but I don't think anyone regards the under 25s as one such group.
People are able to differentiate between 'Vicky Pollard' type undeserving underclass and those under 25s who are 'deserving' of state help.
Not every under 25 has a trust fund after all.
Reminds me of a story, told by the Russians in Moscow at the time about Brezhnev.
Keen to impress his peasant mother, he had her whisked in a Zil to his Dacha outside Moscow. When that failed to move her, he flew her to his Palace by the Black Sea. Still unmoved, his private train returned her in style to his suite in the Kremlin.
Stunned by her lack of reaction, he asked her what was wrong?
"It's all very nice, Leonid, but what happens if the Reds come back?"
Whatever the rights and wrongs of these it ruins the image of the government for those who believe in fiscal responsibility.
There is ALWAYS money available for Cameron to give to foreigners, to waste on his pet projects and to throw at political problems.
For all their talk Cameron and Osborne do not believe in living within their means.
F1 driver market stuff:
Marussia retains Bianchi. Unsurprising, as he's probably the pick of the drivers in the pointless teams: http://www.espn.co.uk/marussia/motorsport/story/127527.html
Hulkenberg's seat should be decided this month:
http://www.espn.co.uk/sauber/motorsport/story/127555.html
Lotus seems the likeliest to take him on, and I hope he gets a chance in a more competitive team. I rate him probably as the best driver outside the world champions.
But do post your analysis supporting the 'rise' theory - and lets see how many polls you rely upon.....
One can only imagine this will be quietly dropped.
US universities are still the most dominant international force in the Times Higher Education rankings.
In top place, as last year, is the California Institute of Technology.
In the UK there are concerns that, outside Oxford, Cambridge and London colleges, many major universities are slipping down international rankings.
The so-called "golden triangle" of UK universities - Oxford, Cambridge and leading London institutions - is seen as a breakaway elite group, with these universities consolidating their international reputations. Imperial College, University College London, LSE and King's College London are all in the top 40. London has more universities in this league table than all of Japan, although only Imperial College makes the top 10.
Edinburgh, Manchester, Bristol, Sheffield, Warwick, Southampton, Nottingham and Newcastle are all seen as going downwards against international rivals.
This is described by the Times Higher Education rankings as showing that "power is draining from the UK regions".
The top 20 still reflects the dominance of wealthy US university powerhouses, taking 15 of the top 20 places, with institutions such Harvard, MIT and Stanford in the leading pack behind the California Institute of Technology.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-24367153
For the rankings see with open access:
http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/2013-14/world-ranking?gclid=CJzBqvaW-rkCFW3KtAodGw8AtQ
In the meantime the electorate are showing a propensity for some jam today. If you were HMG what would you do: splash some cash in the expectation of getting re-elected or save it all up so Liam Byrne can say "ooh look some money" I'll spend it on some Fairness Enforcement Officers for Harriet ?
"Dense with research, the book was published by the Naval Institute Press, which helped to earn it a cover blurb from the former CIA director Admiral Stansfield Turner. Sales took off when a friend in Washington began to pass copies around, one of which landed on the desk of President Reagan. When the President stepped off his helicopter with the book under his arm and a reporter shouted, “What are you reading?”, Reagan showed the world the cover and pronounced it, “the perfect yarn”. After that endorsement, it sold 365,000 in hardback and 4.3 million in paperback." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/obituaries/article3885048.ece
A twenty four year old married couple get a tax break but are forced to move back in with their parents?
Back of an envelope nonsense
But surely, if they are unemployed they don't get the taxbreak, if they are employed they don't get the benefit cut.
Edmund - heard on the radio this morning that Dread Pirate Roberts has been arrested & Silk Road closed down. Bitcoins also being mentioned as currency of choice for these sorts of people.
Are there any implications we should be aware of?
"This week, the Poet Laureate Carol Ann Duffy and various members of the literary set, educational establishment and other wings of the great and good had a letter published in The Times. It provided a brilliant if unwitting insight into what the upper echelons of polite society think of working-class schoolkids: namely that these fragile-minded urchins can’t handle too much academic rigour."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/columnists/article-2442132/Ed-Milibands-Marxist-father-debate-How-hypocritical-Left-upset.html
"Perhaps my memory is failing me, but I can’t recall Ed Miliband rebuking them, or expressing any regret over the behaviour of the louts who held parties to mark Margaret Thatcher’s death before her funeral had taken place.
Oh, I shouldn’t forget that the BBC, which has been scandalised by the suggestion that Ralph Miliband was not a paid-up British patriot, gave endless airtime to a long succession of people who wanted to vent their anger and resentment against the just-deceased Margaret Thatcher.
The truth is that Leftists who reach for the smelling salts when the record of one of their own is reasonably questioned require no lessons in the tricks of denigrating or smearing their political adversaries."
Dolt.
Promised the other day I'd post the list of successful charities in the last funding round. Gave away £85K (much easier to do when it is other people's money) to 5 great organisations out of 245 applications.
1. Arts Together - small Wiltshire based organisation tackling isolation among the eldery. Plan is to roll out first regionally and then, hopefully, nationally www.artstogether.co.uk
2. CHANCE - A small community based organisation in the east end of Sunderland working to improve life chances for some of the most deprived people in the country www.chancesunderland.co.uk
3. CHASE Africa - Working in Africa, through helping people sustainable livelihoods We are funding a pilot to see if integrating the teaching of sustainablity and family planning (the two biggest factors impacting sustainable livelihoods) will work so that CHASE can then use the data to fund raise from bigger organisations www.chaseafrica.org
4. Everyday Magic - Using storytelling techiques to encourge development of imagination, confidence and language skills in multi-cultural state primary schools in London. Funding project to roll out the scheme from Westway into Ealing and parts of Hammersmith. www.everydaymagic.org.uk
5. Franklin Scholars - A start-up programme designed to train Year 10 students ("Franklin Scholars") to mentor and tutor Year 7 pupils at the risk of under-achieving as they transition from primary to secondary school www.franklinscholars.org
I think they are all great organisations - the theme is about finding bright and motivated people with a great idea and helping them to implement it/scale up the project
The existence of a vast government deficit has justified a control on some areas of government expenditure that would otherwise be harder to achieve - eg public sector salaries, some items of social security, government departments except the NHS and DFID. The longer the large deficit remains the longer there is political cover for reducing expenditure on things the government does not want to spend it on.
By giving money away at the same time on mortgage subsidies, cutting income tax, reducing petrol duty, etc, they transfer money in the economy to where they want it to go and maintain a large deficit for a longer period of time, with the large deficit providing political cover so that they can avoid a political debate about whether spending on, say local government adult social services should be cut to fund a marriage tax break.
It is very clever politics, even if it looks like risky economics and contrary to the spirit of democracy.
It is also why it actually makes long-term political sense for a left-wing government to operate with a budget surplus - this will tend to make the country feel more optimistic, secure and generous.
Hasn't that always been the Tory way? Hilton changed it for a while but this is a welcome return to type.
But you're of course right that conference poll movements tend to be mostly froth. All we can say from the current lot is that Miliband's personal position has strengthened and the Tories have missed one opportunity of the remaining handful to remove Labour's modest poll lead. We have two Budgets, two Autumn Statements, one set of conferences (plus Labour's spring conference), one Queen's Speech, the Scottish referendum, the election campaign itself (which rarely shifts much) and Black Swans to come. Apart from this fairly short list, people won't pay much attention, for the reasons you say, and some of these aren't really attention-grabbers either. Praying for helpful Black Swans is always possible, but rarely works out.
tim thinks any change ever is just to complicated for anyone's pretty little head and therefore all welfare should remain unreformed.
Paucity of ambition is another reason not to vote Labour - if more are needed.
tim said:
"The week before the Labour conference saw a YouGov average of 37 for Labour, the week after , over 40.
Not sure what that translates to in PB Toryworld, a win for Maria Hutchings probably"
I'm surprised you don't know. Clearly it means that Labour are in trouble, any day now there will be a terrible backlash against them, Ed has had a terrible conference season and the Daily Mail's attempt to sow the idea in the electorate's mind that he is a dangerous marxist has completely succeeded. Never ever learn....etc...etc..
"You clown"
Sorry my mistake.i'm multi tasking badly this morning
I'm on the YouGov panel and I've been polled 5+ times/week every week for the last couple of months - up from around once a week. Polls cover a wide range of topics as well as matters political. Several others (results never published on here, AFAIK) use political polling as well mixed in with questions on a wide range of other topics.
One, in particular, largely asks about charity advertising but regularly includes a few questions on Party support in 2010, recent elections, and intentions for GE'15.
In summary, its the same small group of nerds and anoraks who are on many/most/all of the on-line polling panels (ie not just on one)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2441457/Submarine-breaks-surface-Milan-STREET-marketing-stunt-left-bystanders-baffled.html
More UK employment growth likely in Q4 after Sep PMIs show largest increase in backlogs of work in survey history pic.twitter.com/UA4KXZGYgB
http://www.trust.org/item/20130927160132-qt52c/?source=shtw
Actually, at the end of his rant, Heseltine was like a kind of results service for Enoch Powells 1968 predictions, confirming Powell to be absolutely correct about the perecntages of large cities that would be made up of descendents of commomwealth immigrants.
- It's actual worth is irrelevant.
- The status quo is irrelevant.
- All else is irrelevant.
http://youtu.be/kp48FdiAkBQ
http://www.bulldogtrust.org/grantmaking.htm
"“Businesses in the vast service sector reported an ongoing growth spurt in September, expanding at a rate just shy of August‟s recent high.
The buoyant data follow similar upbeat surveys of the manufacturing and construction sectors, and collectively the surveys suggest the economy will have expanded by as much as 1.2% in the third quarter; its fastest growth rate since the pre-crisis days of 2007.
“There are encouraging signs that the strong pace of expansion will persist in the coming months:
September saw one of the largest inflows of new business ever seen by the services survey,
business confidence about the year ahead picked up again and other surveys have shown the mood among households to have also improved.
“Not surprisingly, employers are taking on more staff to meet growing demand, which should help bring unemployment down."
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b668420fbbc0481898a1c701a1b55cfc
Mind you, you do have a weakness for very small base sizes when it comes to Eastleigh......
Some people seem overly sensitive about an analysis of Miliband's background.
A few interesting snippets:
1. "Over the last ten years, YouGov has carefully recruited a panel of over 350,000 British adults to take part in our surveys."
2. "Telephone polling companies generally achieve only 15 interviews for every 100 residential numbers they dial."
3. "It should be borne in mind that any organisation attempting to “move” our figures by, say, ten percentage points would have to infiltrate more than 5,000 people. Any attempt to do this would quickly be detected."
Removing bribes from people who have never had them is easier than from those who have got a taste for the teet of the taxpayer.
Conversely child benefit was done the other way round - hence the gnashing of teeth. Should have withdrawn it for 3+ children from say 2014 - plenty of time for family planning.
Of course the usual lefty whiners wouldn't stop complaining about not yet conceived children missing out on vouchers and dead guys not paying any IHT anymore.
Can anyone explain simply, ideally with pictures, why I'm wrong about that? I generally am, which is why I don't do a lot of betting.
I'm baffled by the bizarre reaction to the policies being developed to prevent youngsters falling straight from school into welfare dependency. This is both the right thing to do, for the young people concerned even more than for the taxpayer, and will be popular. The details will obviously need to be worked out to ensure that genuine cases of need are handled properly, but there is over a year to do that; this is something for the manifesto, not a programme for the current coalition.
The other key thing to note is an improved sense of purpose and unity on the Conservative side; they do seem to be getting their act together. If Crosby can help harness the Boris magic-dust as well, that could be very helpful as well.
Of course, none of this guarantees that the public won't put Ed Miliband into No 10; the market for snake-oil has always been quite buoyant. He'd be a worse PM even than Brown, though; I don't think there can now be any doubt about that.
YouGov: September (vs YA)
Con: 33 (-)
Lab: 38.5 (-4.5)
LibDem: 9.4 (+0.2)
UKIP: 12.0 (+4.7)
2) If you had any money on deposit in Silk Road you don't have it any more.
3) The federal government, and the FBI specifically, is now one of the world's largest holders of bitcoins. This will do interesting things to their incentives.
4) The traditional model where one company runs a marketplace while holding onto their users' money is horribly broken, as we also saw when Intrade went bust and took everybody's money with it.
5) Bitcoin has features that allow escrow without a third-party. These have largely been ignored by users up until now, but this will now change.
6) This will change the world.
7) We will no longer need bookmakers.
You're the one who thinks everyone on this site is too stupid to notice your 'Eastleigh Con woman's vote' meme is based on a miniscule base size.....And also won't spot when 'Dave's women problem' morphs into 'Labour's women lead' everytime the polling position changes.....