Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Javid now back as favourite to succeed TMay
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Javid now back as favourite to succeed TMay
Betdata.io
0
This discussion has been closed.
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Javid now back as favourite to succeed TMay
Betdata.io
Comments
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/government-grabbing-brexit-bull-horns/
In the same way as Trump has seen the rise of white nationalists being emboldened about their beliefs, Corbynistas take over of the Labour party has emboldened fellow travellers who have similarly unpleasant views.
It still looks like Hunt vs Javid with Hammond as a dark horse as real Brexit converges with what the Chancellor said (or, less kindly, read from a Treasury brief) at the beginning. JRM is a joke; no-one likes Gove and more importantly, no-one trusts him. Boris is ruled out by his past (see previous notes on parallels with Corbyn).
EFTA
South Korea
The "White" Commonwealth
(small gap)
China
(big gap)
The US
India
You can donate here
https://bravetheshave.macmillan.org.uk/shavers/jenny-herdson
https://twitter.com/court_govern/status/1024003490014740482
Tariffs could be held in reserve purely to deal with dumping and other unfair practices. The potential savings for consumers from cheap goods (and for many producers from being able to source cut-price raw materials) would probably more than pay for the costs of subsidising or nationalising any domestic producers for which the extra competition might cause difficulties, but which we felt it essential to retain for national security or other reasons (e.g. the remaining steel plants.)
After all, the bulk of the UK economy is domestic, and much of what we do export is in the form of high-end manufactured products, and services. Reducing the cost of imports might well even help to reduce the balance of trade deficit?
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/bombshell-recording-proves-corbyn-ally-blamed-jewish-trump-fantatics-for-false-antisemitism-clai-1.467802
If the current escalation of people talking about Brexit being the apocalypse continue to the point where it’s inciting public disorder, then the line of free speech has been crossed. Comments about availability of medicines are already bloody close to that line, especially when they seek to form part of a wider narrative.
The recent problems in India of social-media-related murders are very real, and originators of fake and inciteful comments are being prosecuted.
Why would making imports cheaper reduce the volume or increase exports??
I can see Javid PM, Gove Chancellor, Hunt staying at the foreign office. Not sure about the replacement at the Home Office but that looks to me a likely top team.
I'm not sure it is anti-Semitic to say that some Jewish people are Trump fanatics.
It is certainly true of white people.
Bonkers on stilts.
I think I'd rather try to puzzle out Saturday's Stewards Cup !!
To suggest its anti-Semitic is indeed bonkers on stilts.
'Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Germany, INSA poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 29%
SPD-S&D: 18%
AfD-EFDD: 17%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12%
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
FDP-ALDE: 9%
Field work: 27/07/18 – 30/07/18
Sample size: 2,074"
I listened to the tape. I'm not confused one little bit - you appear to be - or I hope you are for your sake.
He literally says (and I transcribe): "Some of these people in the Jewish community support Trump, they're Trump fanatics. So I'm not going to be lectured to by Trump fanatics making up false information without any evidence at all. So I think we should ask the 70 rabbis where is your evidence?"
Now, if you want to tie yourself in knots, there probably are Jews that support Trump. Although as I said, they're rare given Jews' understandable aversion to anyone with a whiff of the fascist about them. If you look hard enough you can find a few members of any community who support anything. Using that as a general smear to cast aspersions on rabbis from across the Jewish community and those who've made complaints as "making up false information" due to some hidden Trumpian agenda (especially when many are on record as despising the great orange halfwit) is clearly anti-Semitic, as I point out, for the same reason accusing a group of Muslims reasonably setting out their complaints racism they've faced of acting in bad faith because some Muslims happen to support very bad people.
It's so obviously racist I can't believe you're trying to argue otherwise. Corbyn really has blackenned hearts and maddened heads. It's just so poisonous.
That isn't what he did.
Jonathan Arkush congratulated Trump on becoming president, there are actually some Jewish people that support Trump. Claiming that a true statement that some Jewish people support Trump is actually a racist statement is pretty stupid.
Shouting racist at true statements just demeans the word racist.
Some Jewish people are Trump supporters is not an anti-Semitic statement, no matter how biased or partisan you are that is pretty simple to figure out.
Perhaps at a human level now, David Cameron will feel less bitter about losing power so dramatically as we approach the time he was probably planning to retire anyway.
see bottom left
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1024023335196418051?s=19
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/netanyahu-absolves-hitler-of-guilt-1.5411578
But with the Druze getting very annoyed with Bibi, along with a lot of others from all sides for the "One Nation Jewish State" policy, which can only be thought of as a version of Apartheid, expect fun.
Get it yet? [to be fair, the Great One didn't get it either, as he was present at the meeting and said nothing]
Because it is plainly true!
Sarah Champion got demoted from the shadow cabinet but is still an MP for talking about British Pakistani men and paedophillia WITHOUT using the word some (in at least some parts of the article) and quite a few people criticised it, not what she said but that she got demoted for doing so.
There are infrequent discussions on here about Muslims (sometimes specific nationalities) and paedophilla, porbably using the word some and paedophillia is a far far worse thing. There aren't really many proud of that whilst there are proud Trump fns.
In regards to the specific Trump angle on it his charge is basically hypocrisy and it is something that crossed my mind.
It is a bit rich to support or even be happy enough with Trump, who had supporters marching with Torches chanting "Jew will not replace us" and then claim that the Labour party is a threat to Jewish people.
Pointing out a true statement, some Jewish people support Trump is clearly not anti-Semitic.
Pointing out the hypocrisy in that particular stance whilst also claiming Labour are a threat is not anti-Semitic either. You can disagree with that being hypocritical, but that doesn't make it anti-Semitic.
He never claimed that Jewish people are involved in some secret plot, that would be anti-Semitic.
https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1024007441854423040
That bit really isn't complicated!
Also I like how supporting IS is being compared to supporting Trump as if Jewish people liking the US president is somehow the equivalent of Asain's support the crazy Islamic death cult.
Some might suggest that statement itself is racist.
It certainly comes across as more racist than the one we are discussing!
I'm getting more confident in my prediction that the Withdrawal Agreement will be agreed between the UK and EU and passed by Parliament and we will formally leave the EU on 29 March next year.
The section on the future trade agreement will be very short and ambiguous. "A customs arrangement and a common rule book for goods" with the trade negotiation kicked down the road into the transition period. Brexit will then have happened for everyone except the ideologues. I think May will then hang on for the transition period to ensure it is SM/CU with the support of the majority of her MPs, respecting the referendum result but also ensuring minimum economic damage. Could be an OK outcome for the Tory Party. They'll lose a few to UKIP but not enough to cause serious damage.
To break it down to a syllogism:
Some Trump supporters may be Jews (note - he doesn't give any examples).
These rabbis are Jews.
Therefore, these rabbis are Trump supporters.
That seems racist to me. It is, for example, similar to things David Irving said after his famous libel defeat (again: The Jews hate me. The media hate me. Therefore the media is controlled by Jews).
Moreover, the initial assumption is that Jews will automatically support Trump, which is also (a) stereotyping (b) totally incorrect - Jews supported Clinton by a three to one margin (71-24). I can only conclude that's based on an equation of Jews = big business = Donald Trump, which in itself is a racially motivated sentiment.
In any case the signatories to the letter were not Americans, represented a wide array of political, religious and indeed diplomatic views and would normally disagree on what the weather was like. Them coming together is extraordinary, but so is Labour's current nervous breakdown. We don't need conspiracy theories to explain one in light of the other.
This as far as I can judge is a perfectly fair cop.
As this account constantly reminds people:
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1023974570376810498
Labour 2018.
Some Trump supporters may be Jews (note - he doesn't give any examples).
These rabbis are Jews.
The next line is the one I chnged.
Therefore, some rabbis are Trump supporters.
Here is the correct version, note it doesn't end in a racist statement.... maths can be hard sometimes.
You're tying yourself in knots because as I clearly stated that's not the bit that makes it racist. You'll always be able to find someone from any community who hold pretty much any view. Ed Balls found a (now naturalised) Mexican illegal immigrant who voted for Trump the other night. Arkush, whose congratulation of Trump you cite, called his travel ban "unjust" and an example of "evil intent towards Muslims" so he's hardly a "Trump fanatic" as Mr Willsman would have it. But that's by the by - we've established that, for the sake of argument we can find a Jew who supports Trump.
What makes it racist is using the trivial fact that some Jews may support Trump to smear an entire community as acting in bad faith. Which is literally what he did. He said, and I quote again: "So I'm not going to be lectured to by Trump fanatics making up false information without any evidence at all. So I think we should ask the 70 rabbis where is your evidence?"
I'll repeat myself, as you don't seem to have an answer. It's a fact that some Muslims support unpleasant people. How would you, or any reasonable non-racist person react if a group of Muslims complained that an organisation's safeguarding policies were inadequate and an official said "Some Muslims support ISIS. So I'm not going to be lectured by ISIS fanatics making up false information. We should ask these Muslims where is your evidence?"
I hope, anyone would say "that's a bit racist" - so the question to you, if you'd agree is why do you think it's ok for you, Mr Willsman and Jeremy Corbyn, to treat Jews and the racism they face differently?
https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1023976951466352641
That said, it's no wonder how many people are talking about Javid, given the improbability or absurdity of so many of the other leading candidates in the betting. As best as I can understand it, JRM is a niche figure in the parliamentary party, Boris widely loathed, and Backstabber Gove presumably isn't that much better off in the popularity stakes? Hunt is another May-like grey timeserver, Raab has made an inauspicious start as May's Brexiteer poodle on a short leash, David Davis is past it, Andrea Leadsom - well, honestly... and Ruth Davidson isn't even an MP.
However, if I were made to back a potential successor then I think I'd want to pick somebody who supported Vote Leave from the outset, other than the above - i.e. people who aren't too unpopular in the parliamentary party, too closely linked with dodgy red coaches, or otherwise tainted. Or, perhaps, associated with Chequers through membership of the current cabinet?
Jonathan Arkush, not exactly just some random Jew congratulated Trump on winning the presidency.
Your mad rants about true statements being racism just come across as unhinged, no lie too big to try and get your own way I suppose.
He then says: “And some of these people in the Jewish community support Trump – they are Trump fanatics and all the rest of it. So I am not going to be lectured to by Trump fanatics making up duff information without any evidence at all.
“So I think we should ask the 70 rabbis where is your evidence of severe and widespread antisemitism in this Party?’”
My version on the evidence we have is unfortunately right and yours is wrong. He is clearly leaping from 'Jews support Trump. These people are Jews. Therefore they are Trump supporters.' Which as I noted above is bunkum anyway (although come to think of it it may be because of Trump's support for Israel and decision to
cause utter unnecessary chaos to show he's a manmove the US embassy to Jerusalem).Good night.
True sunshine in the internet setting would be not allowing people to be anonymous, but to own as their real life selves what they post. But I don't see how we can make that reality either.
The trade limitations issue won't faze the majority of people, and it does seem to retain the supply-chain and goods movement flexibility of the current SM, so would avoid the chaos of a No Deal Brexit.
I think it's inferior to what we have today, but it may be the best we're going to get in terms of avoiding No Deal.
Basically, I doubt we'll see a referendum on the Deal, and I'd very much like to avoid the chaos of No Deal.
Of May's red lines, I believe only one is completely unfuzzable: ending Free Movement. I don't like it, but it's undeniable that that's the key driver for a lot of people and very probably the majority of those who voted Leave. Or, at least, those who voted Leave and have strong views about Brexit. Oh, there are certainly a whole chunk of people for whom the ability to strike trade deals, avoiding SM regulations, and so on were important, but while I'd personally hugely prefer an EEA-style Brexit out of all the ones possibly available, I recognise I'm in a minority (and, anyway, I reluctantly voted Remain so can't consider myself representative in any case).
The maths just doesn't work, unless he makes a separate claim somewhere else about all the rabbi's being Trump fans then we have to make an assumption which we have no evidence for.
If x=3 or x =4 (some Jews trump fans or some Jews not)
and any y = x (all rabbis are Jews)
then y = 3 which is Trump fans or y=4 which isn't Trump fans.
The maths just doesn't work the other way.
If change his words, or change the assumptions as you did so y=3 but doesn't =4 then yes it does start to sound racist, but that is true of lots of statements.
Goodnight.
Edit: Also yes I imagine it is because of his position on Israel he would have support rather than everything else about him, although there are some people who like the other stuff.
It seems to me that he’s criticising the rabbis accusing him by implying they are Trump supporters. That’s clearly a patheticly obvious swerve to try and avoid answering their challenge but I’m not sure it’s intrinsically racist?
Also you could make a charge of hypocrisy at someone who is supportive of Trump who has supporters marching with torches chanting "Jew will not replace us" claiming Labour is a threat to Jews
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/30/labours-anti-semitism-row-blamed-corbyn-ally-jewish-trump-fanatics/
https://order-order.com/2018/07/30/jewish-labour-movement-told-hitler-right/
More poison
“I would like to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory.
"After a divisive campaign, I hope that Mr Trump will move to build bridges and ensure that America’s standing as a beacon of progress, tolerance and free-thinking remains strong.”
Does that sound like a Trump fanatic to you, or just someone trying to be cautiously diplomatic?