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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If today’s SkyData poll is on the money Brexiters should begin to worry
SkyData poll find backing for second referendum by 10% margin pic.twitter.com/DquF6haFJc
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It probably won't happen, but I found it an intriguing thought.
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
6h6 hours ago
Spain, Demoscopia y Servicios poll:
PP-EPP: 27% (-6)
PSOE-S&D: 25% (+2)
Cs-ALDE: 21% (+8)
UP-LEFT: 17% (-4)"
Only if that reaches a consistent majority will it happen, I reckon.
https://twitter.com/gerardbattenmep/status/1023851645111816192?s=21
https://twitter.com/N_Amberfield/status/1023242097611218949
Quite sad, really. For the real geeks, the loco was withdrawn in 2001 and disposed of (i.e. cut up) the same year, after a 37 year life.
http://www.railuk.info/diesel/getloco.php?item= 37191
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election
If we got a 3-way referendum, it'd be by AV. Or by a two-stage question process. That would ensure no splitting of the vote.
That's the question the next referendum will ask. Could go either way imo; hopefully we will end up with a clear-cut majority one way or the other.
Also it would generally favour the middle option between the two extremes, which goes to show how much the voters hate TMay's proposal.
Robert Stephenson's company and its successor made locos for nearly 150 years. Quite some going.
And then there will be the medicine shortages. We will run out of drugs and people will die. They’re literally saying this. The head of output at Channel 4 News says a No Deal Brexit threatens the supply of insulin from the EU to the UK. ‘What are the government going to do to prevent type-1 diabetics dying?’, he asks. Erm, make a deal with an insulin-producing European country? Or import insulin from the US or India? This is a minor practical matter transformed by vested-interest Remoaners into a terrifying tale of diabetic death. They are happy to panic diabetes sufferers, to lower the quality of life of people with diabetes right now by telling them they might die soon, in the name of wounding Brexit. Such reckless cynicism.
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/the-remainer-politics-of-fear-has-become-unhinged/21634#.W18FSNVKiUk
(Although I thought that the demands about insulin supply were made by Sir Michael Rawlins, chairman of the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency, not 'The head of output at Channel 4 News'.)
"Chequers Deal - douze points"
The poll above looks to be giving changes based on the last general election.
He calls himself a "liberal conservative" (someone else did that once ?) but he sounds socially very conservative compared to Rajoy for example. Big gain for Citizens and I wonder if Cs may feel happier dealing with PSOE down the line rather than PP or rather PP's drift to the Right will exacerbate tensions within Cs.
"Greater Manchester: 65% of people victims of 'hateful behaviour'"
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/30/greater-manchester-65-of-people-victims-of-hateful-behaviour
I have happy memories of Weymouth and Portland. The latter in particular makes a lovely day's walk.
http://www.britishwalks.org/walks/2010/858.php
The idea that a Remain win, won off the back off transferred Deal votes, would close down the Brexit question seems optimistic in the extreme.
It should be said, as this question seems to have gone quiet, that the UK really ought to seek assurance that Remain is even a legal option - never mind one that has agreement among the EU27, before it can be an answer in a new referendum.
It's why in electoral systems like STV, or AV, it can be advantageous to have a party to your extreme standing to encourage turnout so that you can pick up their second preferences. Supporters of either Leave option are presumably likely to back the other in preference to Remain.
Everything is a stitch-up against him and his like for people like Toby Young.
I’ll have my Brexit. Speak not against my Brexit.
I have sworn an oath that I will have my Brexit.
I've never been much of a pundit, but I have no idea what's going to happen. I don't think there's much of a short-term happy ending for the UK whatever transpires.
I managed to talk my father round to it yesterday, just by explaining it to him.
Were the figures to shift a bit further - say 60/30 - then it would be considerably tougher to make any kind of principled (or indeed partisan, self-interested) case against a second referendum.
Yes, my coat.
(edit) Unless, of course, they can persuade everyone that leaving is going to be an unbridled economic success.
Good luck with that.
If your votes - in supposed once in a generation event - just get ignored why participate at all? Weren't the previous two referendums people's votes?
Of course we could just ignore actual votes and let opinion polls decide - if 75 per cent of the the polls had been right in the last week remain would have won and Mrs May would have had a majority of over 100!
The more important point here is that people like Young are being drawn into debating the detail of the coming referendum, rather than simply dismissing or ignoring the idea.
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1023872369524387840
Can Boris be a villain all his life ?
And, what are numbers.... number polled etc etc for the Sky poll?
To oppose this if the voters appear to have changed their minds you have to have a constitutional theory where you support direct democracy, but think of it like a coin toss or a sporting event or something, rather than a way of running things the way the voters want.
"No deal is better than a May deal" is my suggestion for a campaign slogan.
Remain: 24%
Deal: 21%
No Deal: 44%
No Deal is going to get a hammering over the next two months, so the question is which way current No Deal supporting Tories will break. You'll need to have a lot of conversations if you want to talk them into backing Chequers.
We would be in much better political shape had the Brexit referendum been called by a PM who advocated Leave. Had Leave still won then it could have been implemented by that PM, ensuring continuity and that some preparation for Leave would have been made. Had Remain won, and the PM resigned, then the political ructions would have had only minor import, as the voters would have opted for the status quo.
A referendum should be held to ratify a major constitutional change that the PM wishes to implement, not to set off a major constitutional change that the PM wants to avoid.
But aren't we forgetting that May's deal is not going to survive long enough to take part in EURef2?
Good afternoon, everyone.
" Sky Data interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,466 Sky customers online 20-23 July 2018. Data are weighted to the profile of the population. Sky Data is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules."
Unfortunately voters decided otherwise. Up to them, of course.
https://twitter.com/N_Amberfield/status/1023242097611218949/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/6593/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-planned-new-boundaries-give-con-40-more-seats-than-lab-for/p1
But yes, it would certainly be more *democratic* if the voters could remove a government whenever they wanted. The argument for the voting-free terms is that the voters don't know what's good for them and lack the perseverance necessary for governments to do difficult things on their behalf.
I guess here the argument would have to be that the voters know what's good for them, but they lack stamina and their brains are easily overloaded by too much information, so having expressed a preference, they should be obliged to see it through.
As always, you start from the conclusion you want (ultra-Remain) and either fabricate or selectively choose the evidence you want to tell the story that builds to it, so I’m quite relaxed about it.
The idea that solid Leave Tories will move from no deal (or even deal) into Remain is laughable.
https://twitter.com/fav1F62/status/1023281832559824897
Much more likely to be 1990 than 1980.