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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Brexit speech isn’t going to endear him to large parts of LAB’s voting base

Corbyn is going full Trump:

Read the full story here

Theuniondivvie

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit finally pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

IanB2

No indeed

surby

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

Polruan

Seems like smart opposition politics - he’s arguing for fantasy stuff that May has to tell Brexit-enthusiasts in her own party is impossible.

kle4

SandyRentool said:

I was being serious. The opposite of populism int being unpopular. It is telling the electorate difficult truths and looking like a grown up politician, rather than offering simplistic (non-)solutions. The 2017 manifesto was attempting to do this.

Heck, I almost sounded like a Tory there!

Not used to serious in these parts. Yes, there were bits like that in there. And they won't make that mistake again!

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

It pays to prepate for those even if it doesn't happen.

williamglenn

Polruan said:

Seems like smart opposition politics - he’s arguing for fantasy stuff that May has to tell Brexit-enthusiasts in her own party is impossible.

https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1021727036883263488

kle4

And if they don't react, what then?

Finally go LD? Even Vince is not a fan apparently.

Toms said:

If Corbyn and Trump met would they annihilate?

Let us hope we don't find out - who knows how many of us woukd be caught in the blast.

williamglenn said:

Polruan said:

Seems like smart opposition politics - he’s arguing for fantasy stuff that May has to tell Brexit-enthusiasts in her own party is impossible.

https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1021727036883263488

Yeah, but the base will love that bit.

Stark_Dawning

FPT

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1021722493869010944

Something's afoot. I suspect we'll hear an announcement shortly that Vince is deserting the Lib Dems to lead this new entity with Woodcock as his deputy. They'll probably have recruited a Tory too. My guess is Ed Vaizey.

NickPalmer

I think that it's politically a timely speech - it addresses two perceived near-vacuums, namely Labour's post-Brexit policy (in which Labour is not alone, as I argued here this week) and Labour's wider economic policy. If there's some controversy about it, so much the better.

Meanwhile, if you're bored with squabbling over the Irish border, there's good news: we can start squabbling about the Gibraltar border. I did think the Spanish were being amazingly quiet.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/24/gibraltar-spain-vents-frustration-with-uk-in-brexit-talks

Morris_Dancer

FPT: Mr. P, Woodcock's point about a new party rings true in terms of the electoral landscape. However, Labour MPs love their own brand so much they're tolerating Corbyn and his cult, and Con MPs are unlikely to jump ship if Labour stays united (and thereby risk socialism being inflicted upon the UK).

AndyJS

10 most recent polls, averages:

Lab 39.4%
Con 38.1%
LD 9.0%
UKIP 5.1%
Green 2.9%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018

Changes since GE2017:

Lab -1.6%
Con -5.3%
LD +1.4%
UKIP +3.2%
Green +1.2%

MarqueeMark

The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the word he didn't exist.

His second greatest? Convincing the Corbynistas that Jeremy was with them in Remainderdom....

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1021722493869010944

Unlike no deal Brexit a new party won't come about by accident, so he and others need to get on with it, put in a lot of hard work, and then take some major chances. Even then it probably wouldnt work because the 2 party system isn't broken at all, but my interest in voting for a potential new party is waning with every second they whine about wanting one without doing it. At least he has taken the first step in leaving his old party, if not purely on ideological grounds.

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. P, Woodcock's point about a new party rings true in terms of the electoral landscape. However, Labour MPs love their own brand so much they're tolerating Corbyn and his cult, and Con MPs are unlikely to jump ship if Labour stays united (and thereby risk socialism being inflicted upon the UK).

And as the tories weaken in Brexit struggles, Labour are more likely to stay united as power will be within their grasp. Woodcock was the only one on record as not able to tolerate Corbyn as pm, the others are.

Also, for a new party woukd it be expected to vote against the government on most things? Woodcock probably thinks so, but the Soubrys of the world might not.

ydoethur

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

It's reckless politics as he can't really outbid May with Leavers, while even a modest seepage to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP would see him haemorrhage seats, including to the Tories on a split vote.

For that very reason, I would suggest this means it's more likely that he's concluded there isn't going to be an imminent election, possibly not one while he's leader, and he can therefore come off the fence.

Sunil_Prasannan

"You NEVER go full REMAINER!"

Stark_Dawning

Polruan said:

Seems like smart opposition politics - he’s arguing for fantasy stuff that May has to tell Brexit-enthusiasts in her own party is impossible.

It's very smart politics. He's making Theresa look like a euro-phile even though she's lost the Remainer vote for good. And we might soon have the extraordinary situation of the ERG given tacit support to Jezza.

kle4

NickPalmer said:

I think that it's politically a timely speech - it addresses two perceived near-vacuums, namely Labour's post-Brexit policy (in which Labour is not alone, as I argued here this week) and Labour's wider economic policy. If there's some controversy about it, so much the better.

Meanwhile, if you're bored with squabbling over the Irish border, there's good news: we can start squabbling about the Gibraltar border. I did think the Spanish were being amazingly quiet.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/24/gibraltar-spain-vents-frustration-with-uk-in-brexit-talks

What are they saying over Gibraltar now? Looks to me like it's Spain trying to secure advantage rather than us being unreasonable. They're allowed to try, but it's up to them to convince their fellows that that issue, personal to them, is worth more problems.

OchEye

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1021722493869010944

Something's afoot. I suspect we'll hear an announcement shortly that Vince is deserting the Lib Dems to lead this new entity with Woodcock as his deputy. They'll probably have recruited a Tory too. My guess is Ed Vaizey.

And Margaret Hodge, and Umunna, Kinnock and Smith, all have recently been looking for an excuse to leave before being kicked out as they realise their CLP's are not happy with them.

Polruan

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1021722493869010944

Unlike no deal Brexit a new party won't come about by accident, so he and others need to get on with it, put in a lot of hard work, and then take some major chances. Even then it probably wouldnt work because the 2 party system isn't broken at all, but my interest in voting for a potential new party is waning with every second they whine about wanting one without doing it. At least he has taken the first step in leaving his old party, if not purely on ideological grounds.

Presumably one of the biggest barriers is the current parliamentary maths: if the Tories had say 40 seat majority a few pro-Europeans could defect without making too many waves, but in the current set up it would be absolutely nuclear. Judging by Grieve’s reluctance to push too hard on an issue he considered vitally important (for example) I’m not sure many if any Tories would be prepared to destabilise the government in this way.

ydoethur

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

I think that it's politically a timely speech - it addresses two perceived near-vacuums, namely Labour's post-Brexit policy (in which Labour is not alone, as I argued here this week) and Labour's wider economic policy. If there's some controversy about it, so much the better.

Meanwhile, if you're bored with squabbling over the Irish border, there's good news: we can start squabbling about the Gibraltar border. I did think the Spanish were being amazingly quiet.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/24/gibraltar-spain-vents-frustration-with-uk-in-brexit-talks

What are they saying over Gibraltar now? Looks to me like it's Spain trying to secure advantage rather than us being unreasonable. They're allowed to try, but it's up to them to convince their fellows that that issue, personal to them, is worth more problems.

They're saying Gibraltar could lead to a cliff-edge.

Don't know whether the headline writer has a very advanced sense of humour or none at all.

Basically, on a serious note, they want control of Gibraltar's airport and financial systems in exchange for any deal covering Gibraltar (including the transition deal). The British are suggesting that for some reason this is not acceptable.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1021725067045216257

kle4

Polruan said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1021722493869010944

Unlike no deal Brexit a new party won't come about by accident, so he and others need to get on with it, put in a lot of hard work, and then take some major chances. Even then it probably wouldnt work because the 2 party system isn't broken at all, but my interest in voting for a potential new party is waning with every second they whine about wanting one without doing it. At least he has taken the first step in leaving his old party, if not purely on ideological grounds.

Presumably one of the biggest barriers is the current parliamentary maths: if the Tories had say 40 seat majority a few pro-Europeans could defect without making too many waves, but in the current set up it would be absolutely nuclear. Judging by Grieve’s reluctance to push too hard on an issue he considered vitally important (for example) I’m not sure many if any Tories would be prepared to destabilise the government in this way.

2017 GE really did mess things up an awful lot. Corbyn secure but the PLP still unhappy, so an annoying status quo. Tory rebels powerful but split themselves, and with no majority the gov is easily brought down, making it a tougher leap. The LDs not recovering in popular vote, retreating to a few core areas.

kle4

Stark_Dawning said:

Polruan said:

Seems like smart opposition politics - he’s arguing for fantasy stuff that May has to tell Brexit-enthusiasts in her own party is impossible.

It's very smart politics. He's making Theresa look like a euro-phile even though she's lost the Remainer vote for good. And we might soon have the extraordinary situation of the ERG given tacit support to Jezza.

That wouldn't really surprise me. They want a chaotic situation to ensure no deal, any option that secures that is worth it to them.

kle4

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

.

And why, this time, woukd people think differently? Because of a speech? The tories will advertise Corbyn is no Remainer as well?

I should think most remainers aren't going anywhere. Better Brexit under Corbyn than may I woukd think.

williamglenn

kle4 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Polruan said:

Seems like smart opposition politics - he’s arguing for fantasy stuff that May has to tell Brexit-enthusiasts in her own party is impossible.

It's very smart politics. He's making Theresa look like a euro-phile even though she's lost the Remainer vote for good. And we might soon have the extraordinary situation of the ERG given tacit support to Jezza.

That wouldn't really surprise me. They want a chaotic situation to ensure no deal, any option that secures that is worth it to them.

The ERG attitude, exemplified by archer_101 is that No Deal wouldn't be a chaotic situation at all. We'd serenely carry on as we are now, and it would be an existential threat to the EU because everyone would suddenly realise that it serves no purpose.

Stark_Dawning

Theresa's in a pickle. The only way she can counter Jezza's newly found euro-scepticism is to sound more euro-sceptic herself. And what will be the effect of that? To drive more Remainers to Jezza. Bit of a quandary.

OblitusSumMe

AndyJS said:

10 most recent polls, averages:

Lab 39.4%
Con 38.1%
LD 9.0%
UKIP 5.1%
Green 2.9%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018

Changes since GE2017:

Lab -1.6%
Con -5.3%
LD +1.4%
UKIP +3.2%
Green +1.2%

1.1% gone missing. SNP/PC? UKIP splitters?

TOPPING

Dear god please don't tell me that Vince is going to position himself as the face of an exciting, young, new political Party.

kle4

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Polruan said:

Seems like smart opposition politics - he’s arguing for fantasy stuff that May has to tell Brexit-enthusiasts in her own party is impossible.

It's very smart politics. He's making Theresa look like a euro-phile even though she's lost the Remainer vote for good. And we might soon have the extraordinary situation of the ERG given tacit support to Jezza.

That wouldn't really surprise me. They want a chaotic situation to ensure no deal, any option that secures that is worth it to them.

The ERG attitude, exemplified by archer_101 is that No Deal wouldn't be a chaotic situation at all. We'd serenely carry on as we are now, and it would be an existential threat to the EU because everyone would suddenly realise that it serves no purpose.

Whether that is right or not I meant a chaotic domestic political situation is needed to ensure no deal.

ydoethur

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

.

And why, this time, woukd people think differently? Because of a speech? The tories will advertise Corbyn is no Remainer as well?

I should think most remainers aren't going anywhere. Better Brexit under Corbyn than may I woukd think.

They might think, 'better a Brexit under a Corbyn government constrained by the Liberal Democrats.'

Which would be disastrous for Labour. A few hundred votes vanishing in the wrong seats would see the Conservatives regain a majority.

Pulpstar

British jobs for British workers.

williamglenn

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Polruan said:

Seems like smart opposition politics - he’s arguing for fantasy stuff that May has to tell Brexit-enthusiasts in her own party is impossible.

It's very smart politics. He's making Theresa look like a euro-phile even though she's lost the Remainer vote for good. And we might soon have the extraordinary situation of the ERG given tacit support to Jezza.

That wouldn't really surprise me. They want a chaotic situation to ensure no deal, any option that secures that is worth it to them.

The ERG attitude, exemplified by archer_101 is that No Deal wouldn't be a chaotic situation at all. We'd serenely carry on as we are now, and it would be an existential threat to the EU because everyone would suddenly realise that it serves no purpose.

Whether that is right or not I meant a chaotic domestic political situation is needed to ensure no deal.

It's ambiguous whether Corbyn wants a General Election before Brexit that would leave him holding the baby, or whether he wants the actual chaos of No Deal so he can come in afterwards with a mandate for socialist shock therapy.

kle4

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

.

And why, this time, woukd people think differently? Because of a speech? The tories will advertise Corbyn is no Remainer as well?

I should think most remainers aren't going anywhere. Better Brexit under Corbyn than may I woukd think.

They might think, 'better a Brexit under a Corbyn government constrained by the Liberal Democrats.'

Which would be disastrous for Labour. A few hundred votes vanishing in the wrong seats would see the Conservatives regain a majority.

Except an early GE probably means either the Tories are split, or more likely simply in chaotic free fall. Corbyn has a much easier time of it then.

Pulpstar

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

.

And why, this time, woukd people think differently? Because of a speech? The tories will advertise Corbyn is no Remainer as well?

I should think most remainers aren't going anywhere. Better Brexit under Corbyn than may I woukd think.

They might think, 'better a Brexit under a Corbyn government constrained by the Liberal Democrats.'

Which would be disastrous for Labour. A few hundred votes vanishing in the wrong seats would see the Conservatives regain a majority.

Wimbledon will be a Tory hold at the next election, simply because it isn't at all obvious whether the best vote against Hammond is Labour or Lib Dem.

kle4

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Polruan said:

Seems like smart opposition politics - he’s arguing for fantasy stuff that May has to tell Brexit-enthusiasts in her own party is impossible.

It's very smart politics. He's making Theresa look like a euro-phile even though she's lost the Remainer vote for good. And we might soon have the extraordinary situation of the ERG given tacit support to Jezza.

That wouldn't really surprise me. They want a chaotic situation to ensure no deal, any option that secures that is worth it to them.

The ERG attitude, exemplified by archer_101 is that No Deal wouldn't be a chaotic situation at all. We'd serenely carry on as we are now, and it would be an existential threat to the EU because everyone would suddenly realise that it serves no purpose.

Whether that is right or not I meant a chaotic domestic political situation is needed to ensure no deal.

It's ambiguous whether Corbyn wants a General Election before Brexit that would leave him holding the baby, or whether he wants the actual chaos of No Deal so he can come in afterwards with a mandate for socialist shock therapy.

I woukd think the latter, who woukd want to take on the job right now, but he needs to be prepared at least.

Sunil_Prasannan

TOPPING said:

Dear god please don't tell me that Vince is going to position himself as the face of an exciting, young, new political Party.

Lay that Cable

OblitusSumMe

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

It's reckless politics as he can't really outbid May with Leavers, while even a modest seepage to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP would see him haemorrhage seats, including to the Tories on a split vote.

For that very reason, I would suggest this means it's more likely that he's concluded there isn't going to be an imminent election, possibly not one while he's leader, and he can therefore come off the fence.

Isn't this positioning to provide the justification for voting with the ERG to bring down whatever agreement May manages to make with the EU (if there is one) and hopefully thereby trigger an election?

ydoethur

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

.

And why, this time, woukd people think differently? Because of a speech? The tories will advertise Corbyn is no Remainer as well?

I should think most remainers aren't going anywhere. Better Brexit under Corbyn than may I woukd think.

They might think, 'better a Brexit under a Corbyn government constrained by the Liberal Democrats.'

Which would be disastrous for Labour. A few hundred votes vanishing in the wrong seats would see the Conservatives regain a majority.

Except an early GE probably means either the Tories are split, or more likely simply in chaotic free fall. Corbyn has a much easier time of it then.

Well, they are split. So are Labour. So are the SNP. The only major party in Parliament that isn't in a complete muddle are the Greens, and they're so off the wall nobody would be able to tell if they were. But there is no sign of the government collapsing at this stage although May will surely not make it much past Christmas.

That's why I think this clarification is made on the assumption there will not be an election. If there is, he's given a hostage to fortune now.

kle4

Pulpstar said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

.

And why, this time, woukd people think differently? Because of a speech? The tories will advertise Corbyn is no Remainer as well?

I should think most remainers aren't going anywhere. Better Brexit under Corbyn than may I woukd think.

They might think, 'better a Brexit under a Corbyn government constrained by the Liberal Democrats.'

Which would be disastrous for Labour. A few hundred votes vanishing in the wrong seats would see the Conservatives regain a majority.

Wimbledon will be a Tory hold at the next election, simply because it isn't at all obvious whether the best vote against Hammond is Labour or Lib Dem.

There were a few Scottish seats like that, unclear who the best non SNP chance was. In the end in places like East Renfrewshire it wasn't even close in the end. It might get more obvious on the ground than it appears now.

williamglenn

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Polruan said:

Seems like smart opposition politics - he’s arguing for fantasy stuff that May has to tell Brexit-enthusiasts in her own party is impossible.

It's very smart politics. He's making Theresa look like a euro-phile even though she's lost the Remainer vote for good. And we might soon have the extraordinary situation of the ERG given tacit support to Jezza.

That wouldn't really surprise me. They want a chaotic situation to ensure no deal, any option that secures that is worth it to them.

The ERG attitude, exemplified by archer_101 is that No Deal wouldn't be a chaotic situation at all. We'd serenely carry on as we are now, and it would be an existential threat to the EU because everyone would suddenly realise that it serves no purpose.

Whether that is right or not I meant a chaotic domestic political situation is needed to ensure no deal.

It's ambiguous whether Corbyn wants a General Election before Brexit that would leave him holding the baby, or whether he wants the actual chaos of No Deal so he can come in afterwards with a mandate for socialist shock therapy.

I woukd think the latter, who woukd want to take on the job right now, but he needs to be prepared at least.

Either way I think it's wishful thinking on his part. He's gambling that the Tories won't support a second referendum under any circumstances, but this kind of rhetoric will leave him high and dry if May goes for it.

kle4

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

.

And why, this time, woukd people think differently? Because of a speech? The tories will advertise Corbyn is no Remainer as well?

I should think most remainers aren't going anywhere. Better Brexit under Corbyn than may I woukd think.

They might think, 'better a Brexit under a Corbyn government constrained by the Liberal Democrats.'

Which would be disastrous for Labour. A few hundred votes vanishing in the wrong seats would see the Conservatives regain a majority.

Except an early GE probably means either the Tories are split, or more likely simply in chaotic free fall. Corbyn has a much easier time of it then.

Well, they are split. So are Labour. So are the SNP. The only major party in Parliament that isn't in a complete muddle are the Greens, and they're so off the wall nobody would be able to tell if they were. But there is no sign of the government collapsing at this stage although May will surely not make it much past Christmas.

That's why I think this clarification is made on the assumption there will not be an election. If there is, he's given a hostage to fortune now.

I meant a formal split. I put that as less likely than merely chaos. Labour's coalition will hold together better as they scent victory. Then they encounter similar problems.

Sunil_Prasannan

Pulpstar said:

British jobs for British workers.

"This is a LOCAL blog for LOCAL people! There's nothing for YOU here!"

kle4

OblitusSumMe said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

It's reckless politics as he can't really outbid May with Leavers, while even a modest seepage to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP would see him haemorrhage seats, including to the Tories on a split vote.

For that very reason, I would suggest this means it's more likely that he's concluded there isn't going to be an imminent election, possibly not one while he's leader, and he can therefore come off the fence.

Isn't this positioning to provide the justification for voting with the ERG to bring down whatever agreement May manages to make with the EU (if there is one) and hopefully thereby trigger an election?

Good call. He won't be able to abstain on that one, so why vote the same as JRM, the Corbyn of the Tories? That's cracked the conundrum.

ydoethur

OblitusSumMe said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

It's reckless politics as he can't really outbid May with Leavers, while even a modest seepage to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP would see him haemorrhage seats, including to the Tories on a split vote.

For that very reason, I would suggest this means it's more likely that he's concluded there isn't going to be an imminent election, possibly not one while he's leader, and he can therefore come off the fence.

Isn't this positioning to provide the justification for voting with the ERG to bring down whatever agreement May manages to make with the EU (if there is one) and hopefully thereby trigger an election?

While that might be a possible explanation, it seems unlikely Mogg would support him even over Brexit given how much they loathe each other - not forgetting that Corbyn was accused by Mogg of deliberately lying on the floor of the House. Bear in mind, the ERG only has to block legislation to secure hard Brexit by default. There is no need for them to take any sort of positive decision.

But even if he were trying that, it's not only risky but plain dumb. Triggering an election while seriously annoying a large part of your electorate didn't prove a winner for May.

ydoethur

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

.

And why, this time, woukd people think differently? Because of a speech? The tories will advertise Corbyn is no Remainer as well?

I should think most remainers aren't going anywhere. Better Brexit under Corbyn than may I woukd think.

They might think, 'better a Brexit under a Corbyn government constrained by the Liberal Democrats.'

Which would be disastrous for Labour. A few hundred votes vanishing in the wrong seats would see the Conservatives regain a majority.

Except an early GE probably means either the Tories are split, or more likely simply in chaotic free fall. Corbyn has a much easier time of it then.

Well, they are split. So are Labour. So are the SNP. The only major party in Parliament that isn't in a complete muddle are the Greens, and they're so off the wall nobody would be able to tell if they were. But there is no sign of the government collapsing at this stage although May will surely not make it much past Christmas.

That's why I think this clarification is made on the assumption there will not be an election. If there is, he's given a hostage to fortune now.

I meant a formal split. I put that as less likely than merely chaos. Labour's coalition will hold together better as they scent victory. Then they encounter similar problems.

For the reasons noted above, the ERG would not split if they thought there was a risk that by doing so they handed power to Corbyn. So I don't think that's on the cards. A few pro-EU MPs might be a different matter, but if Clarke could survive the leadership of IDS I think they'll be willing to stay for this too.

MaxPB

Polruan said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1021722493869010944

Unlike no deal Brexit a new party won't come about by accident, so he and others need to get on with it, put in a lot of hard work, and then take some major chances. Even then it probably wouldnt work because the 2 party system isn't broken at all, but my interest in voting for a potential new party is waning with every second they whine about wanting one without doing it. At least he has taken the first step in leaving his old party, if not purely on ideological grounds.

Presumably one of the biggest barriers is the current parliamentary maths: if the Tories had say 40 seat majority a few pro-Europeans could defect without making too many waves, but in the current set up it would be absolutely nuclear. Judging by Grieve’s reluctance to push too hard on an issue he considered vitally important (for example) I’m not sure many if any Tories would be prepared to destabilise the government in this way.

I can count three, possibly four that might defect from Tory ranks, not sure about Labour. One of their members could do a count for us.

Sean_F

Good politics by Corbyn.

OchEye

As for Trump's spat with Iran, he obviously has never looked at a map, as all the Iranians have to do is quickly mine the Straits of Hormuz, whether in fact, which is not too difficult, or as a bluff, and quite simply, western economies will go to hell in a bucket very fast. As for the US attacking Iran, er, since Syria, the Russians and Iranians are quite good friends nowadays, leaving any US navy ships trapped in the Persian Gulf as rather tempting targets, or hostage.

MaxPB

TOPPING said:

Dear god please don't tell me that Vince is going to position himself as the face of an exciting, young, new political Party.

It would be about right for a party with no ideas other than remaining in the EU to have a second rate leader like Vince in charge. Old, busted and bereft of power.

archer101au

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Polruan said:

Seems like smart opposition politics - he’s arguing for fantasy stuff that May has to tell Brexit-enthusiasts in her own party is impossible.

It's very smart politics. He's making Theresa look like a euro-phile even though she's lost the Remainer vote for good. And we might soon have the extraordinary situation of the ERG given tacit support to Jezza.

That wouldn't really surprise me. They want a chaotic situation to ensure no deal, any option that secures that is worth it to them.

The ERG attitude, exemplified by archer_101 is that No Deal wouldn't be a chaotic situation at all. We'd serenely carry on as we are now, and it would be an existential threat to the EU because everyone would suddenly realise that it serves no purpose.

Almost right. I think No Deal will be chaotic in the short term because of the lack of detailed preparation (thanks to Remainers), but that this would be resolved within a year. After that, we would serenely start to outperform the EU if our Government was prepared to be proactive with the freedoms we have gained.

But anything other than a meltdown of the UK economy will signal to everyone that the EU and SM are massively overrated and yes, this will lead to the EU coming under existential threat.

williamglenn

Sean_F said:

Good politics by Corbyn.

Too clever/obstinate by half. He'd be f***ed by a second referendum now, and that's what's going to happen.

Polruan

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

.

And why, this time, woukd people think differently? Because of a speech? The tories will advertise Corbyn is no Remainer as well?

I should think most remainers aren't going anywhere. Better Brexit under Corbyn than may I woukd think.

They might think, 'better a Brexit under a Corbyn government constrained by the Liberal Democrats.'

Which would be disastrous for Labour. A few hundred votes vanishing in the wrong seats would see the Conservatives regain a majority.

Except an early GE probably means either the Tories are split, or more likely simply in chaotic free fall. Corbyn has a much easier time of it then.

Well, they are split. So are Labour. So are the SNP. The only major party in Parliament that isn't in a complete muddle are the Greens, and they're so off the wall nobody would be able to tell if they were. But there is no sign of the government collapsing at this stage although May will surely not make it much past Christmas.

That's why I think this clarification is made on the assumption there will not be an election. If there is, he's given a hostage to fortune now.

Not really - the beauty of opposition is you can hold 15 different contradictory views most of the time, and when an election comes round you pick appropriate attack lines. The government’s re-election campaign will accuse you of all sorts of untrue things, and is unlikely to be taken any more seriously if a few of those accusations are actually true. Corbyn can sit on the fence or hop on and off to either side with impunity for the time being.

kle4

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

.

And why, this time, woukd people think differently? Because of a speech? The tories will advertise Corbyn is no Remainer as well?

I should think most remainers aren't going anywhere. Better Brexit under Corbyn than may I woukd think.

They might think, 'better a Brexit under a Corbyn government constrained by the Liberal Democrats.'

Which would be disastrous for Labour. A few hundred votes vanishing in the wrong seats would see the Conservatives regain a majority.

Except an early GE probably means either the Tories are split, or more likely simply in chaotic free fall. Corbyn has a much easier time of it then.

Well, they are split. So are Labour. So are the SNP. The only major party in Parliament that isn't in a complete muddle are the Greens, and they're so off the wall nobody would be able to tell if they were. But there is no sign ne now.

I meant a formal split. I put that as less likely than merely chaos. Labour's coalition will hold together better as they scent victory. Then they encounter similar problems.

For the reasons noted above, the ERG would not split if they thought there was a risk that by doing so they handed power to Corbyn. So I don't think that's on the cards. A few pro-EU MPs might be a different matter, but if Clarke could survive the leadership of IDS I think they'll be willing to stay for this too.

Yes, but in the event of a new GE the party seems unlikey to improve from the polling malaise that has now struck them, caused by their Brexit troubles. What coherent position could they offer as a united front? They couldn't on the Brexit issue. So bleed age to ukip and lab would persist, Corbyn wins.

Getting to a ge us still problematic, but all these hypotheses are for chaotic breakdowns, so it could happen, and if it does I think Corbyn walks it. His own contradictions won't come home to roost early enough.

Jonathan

Is Corbyn (or more precisely Milne) trying to engineer a split?

Stark_Dawning

OblitusSumMe said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

It's reckless politics as he can't really outbid May with Leavers, while even a modest seepage to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP would see him haemorrhage seats, including to the Tories on a split vote.

For that very reason, I would suggest this means it's more likely that he's concluded there isn't going to be an imminent election, possibly not one while he's leader, and he can therefore come off the fence.

Isn't this positioning to provide the justification for voting with the ERG to bring down whatever agreement May manages to make with the EU (if there is one) and hopefully thereby trigger an election?

You're right! Labour employed the same tactic when they sided with 'the bastards' over Maastricht. Of course, it was cynical opportunism, but it wrecked the Tories as a unified party and ushered in a generation of Blairite rule. There's little doubt that Mogg and co. would be equally obliging to Jezza.

MaxPB

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

Good politics by Corbyn.

Too clever/obstinate by half. He'd be f***ed by a second referendum now, and that's what's going to happen.

Your desperation is showing. Remaining in the EU is slowly slipping away and no amount of inert keyboard warrior nonsense you post will make any difference. It must genuinely burn inside to see the UK leave the EU for you, what a wonderful thought that is.

kle4

Jonathan said:

Is Corbyn (or more precisely Milne) trying to engineer a split?

Well, he beat his opponents too well, they're too scared to move on him and too gutless to leave.

MaxPB

SeanT said:

Incidentally, this is a rather fine and shocking piece by Toby Young (an old acquaintance of mine).

I was aware that he was forced to step down from the QAUNGO role, because of the monstering he got on Twitter and elsewhere.

I was unaware that as a consequence he lost ALL his positions, and his entire career was ruined, overnight. Just astonishing. And sobering. Whether you are on the left OR the right, these lynchings are horrible. They need to STOP.


https://quillette.com/2018/07/23/the-public-humiliation-diet/

It will now that the right are targeting the left with the same tactics. Suddenly they will be overcome with a sense that people can make mistakes and move on from them.

Theuniondivvie

At least someone likes Jezza's speech.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1021698631882207233

grabcocque

Thanks to Tory psychosis about Europe, we're now heading full steam towards a hard left Labour government and no EU free market and competition rules to restrain them.

So thanks for that.

grabcocque

SeanT said:

Incidentally, this is a rather fine and shocking piece by Toby Young (an old acquaintance of mine).

It's Toby Young, though. A *world class* knob head.

Like us, he's spent a signifant proportion of his life trolling on the internet. Unlike us, though, he demanded to be taken seriously. That's where he went wrong.

Polruan

MaxPB said:

Polruan said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1021722493869010944

Unlike no deal Brexit a new party won't come about by accident, so he and others need to get on with it, put in a lot of hard work, and then take some major chances. Even then it probably wouldnt work because the 2 party system isn't broken at all, but my interest in voting for a potential new party is waning with every second they whine about wanting one without doing it. At least he has taken the first step in leaving his old party, if not purely on ideological grounds.

Presumably one of the biggest barriers is the current parliamentary maths: if the Tories had say 40 seat majority a few pro-Europeans could defect without making too many waves, but in the current set up it would be absolutely nuclear. Judging by Grieve’s reluctance to push too hard on an issue he considered vitally important (for example) I’m not sure many if any Tories would be prepared to destabilise the government in this way.

I can count three, possibly four that might defect from Tory ranks, not sure about Labour. One of their members could do a count for us.

You could think of 50+ Labour MPs who would be tempted, but the problem is that they would be aware that for this to work it needs to be seen as a genuinely new non-partisan movement, and 50 Labour and a handful of each of LD and Tories won’t look like that. I’m not sure how that problem could be overcome.

In the ensuing chaos it’s easy to imagine Kate Hoey “accidentally” overshooting and ending up as a signed up ERGer taking the Conservative whip, but that’s by the by.

dixiedean

OT ITV4 interviewing a guy who RAN the Tour de France course...10 km to go.

"I'm very tired."

kle4

grabcocque said:

Thanks to Tory psychosis about Europe, we're now heading full steam towards a hard left Labour government and no EU free market and competition rules to restrain them.

So thanks for that.

It was the public who voted for it, and 52% of the voting electorate are not tories. Tories didn't create that 52%, they're just the biggest bunch in it.

MaxPB

Polruan said:

MaxPB said:

Polruan said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1021722493869010944

Unlike no deal Brexit a new party won't come about by accident, so he and others need to get on with it, put in a lot of hard work, and then take some major chances. Even then it probably wouldnt work because the 2 party system isn't broken at all, but my interest in voting for a potential new party is waning with every second they whine about wanting one without doing it. At least he has taken the first step in leaving his old party, if not purely on ideological grounds.

Presumably one of the biggest barriers is the current parliamentary maths: if the Tories had say 40 seat majority a few pro-Europeans could defect without making too many waves, but in the current set up it would be absolutely nuclear. Judging by Grieve’s reluctance to push too hard on an issue he considered vitally important (for example) I’m not sure many if any Tories would be prepared to destabilise the government in this way.

I can count three, possibly four that might defect from Tory ranks, not sure about Labour. One of their members could do a count for us.

You could think of 50+ Labour MPs who would be tempted, but the problem is that they would be aware that for this to work it needs to be seen as a genuinely new non-partisan movement, and 50 Labour and a handful of each of LD and Tories won’t look like that. I’m not sure how that problem could be overcome.

In the ensuing chaos it’s easy to imagine Kate Hoey “accidentally” overshooting and ending up as a signed up ERGer taking the Conservative whip, but that’s by the by.

That does seem to be the issue, any new centrist party will just be seen as a bunch of opportunistic Labour MPs who don't like Jez. It will make the Tory position even stronger because the left will be split all over the country.

OblitusSumMe

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

It's reckless politics as he can't really outbid May with Leavers, while even a modest seepage to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP would see him haemorrhage seats, including to the Tories on a split vote.

For that very reason, I would suggest this means it's more likely that he's concluded there isn't going to be an imminent election, possibly not one while he's leader, and he can therefore come off the fence.

Isn't this positioning to provide the justification for voting with the ERG to bring down whatever agreement May manages to make with the EU (if there is one) and hopefully thereby trigger an election?

Even the looniest ERG-ers don't want a Corbyn government. They have to answer to middle class Tory activists, and enormous tax rises and the bankrupting of the country loom larger, for these people, than a period of quasi-ECJ oversight.

If TMay manages to push through some shoddy deal I expect 99% of Tories - even the Moggs and Cashs - to grit their teeth, swallow it, and hold on til a GE in 2022. Of course they will probably dump May and put a Leaver in her place, in the interim - hopefully someone who can campaign and has a political brain.

Then the sceptics will try and get a better post-Brexit deal.

I think the Fixed Term Parliaments Act muddies this issue somewhat because it means that a vote on the deal cannot be made explicitly a confidence vote.

So while Corbyn can justify voting with the ERG partly as a means to bring down the government, the ERG can justify voting with Corbyn because it doesn't, formally, bring down the government.

kle4

SeanT said:

grabcocque said:

Thanks to Tory psychosis about Europe, we're now heading full steam towards a hard left Labour government and no EU free market and competition rules to restrain them.

So thanks for that.

It is sub-optimal. I am on record as saying that if Brexit leads to a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Brexit vote. We are perilously headed in that direction.

Let's pray TMay can get some kind of OK-ish deal.

I don't see how she does, but I hope so. And that we can then last until 2022 for a new GE - the parties can move on to arguing about the post brexit direction until then at least.

surby

Raab confirms that the withdrawal agreement and implementation bill (known as WAIB in Whitehall) will reinstate parts of the European Communities Act (the legislation that took the UK into the EEC, repealed in the EU Withdrawal Act) so that EU law continues to apply during the transition.

And he says the UK’s financial settlement will be conditional on an agreement on trade. - The Guardian

If I am correct, this is the first time the UK government is saying that under certain circumstances, it will not pay on items it is legally committed to.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1021740907585044481

kle4

MaxPB said:

Polruan said:

MaxPB said:

Polruan said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1021722493869010944

Unlike no deal Brexit a new party won't come about by accident, so he and others need to get on with it, put in a lot of hard work, and then take some major chances. Even then it probably wouldnt work because the 2 party system isn't broken at all, but my interest in voting for a potential new party is waning with every second they whine about wanting one without doing it. At least he has taken the first step in leaving his old party, if not purely on ideological grounds.

Presumably one of the biggest barriers is the current parliamentary maths: if the Tories had say 40 seat majority a few pro-Europeans could defect without making too many waves, but in the current set up it would be absolutely nuclear. Judging by Grieve’s reluctance to push too hard on an issue he considered vitally important (for example) I’m not sure many if any Tories would be prepared to destabilise the government in this way.

I can count three, possibly four that might defect from Tory ranks, not sure about Labour. One of their members could do a count for us.

You could think of 50+ Labour MPs who would be tempted, but the problem is that they would be aware that for this to work it needs to be seen as a genuinely new non-partisan movement, and 50 Labour and a handful of each of LD and Tories won’t look like that. I’m not sure how that problem could be overcome.

In the ensuing chaos it’s easy to imagine Kate Hoey “accidentally” overshooting and ending up as a signed up ERGer taking the Conservative whip, but that’s by the by.

That does seem to be the issue, any new centrist party will just be seen as a bunch of opportunistic Labour MPs who don't like Jez. It will make the Tory position even stronger because the left will be split all over the country.

Why they waited to try again until after 2017 GE no doubt - a bad result to give them a chance to replace him. Whoops.

John_M

surby said:

Raab confirms that the withdrawal agreement and implementation bill (known as WAIB in Whitehall) will reinstate parts of the European Communities Act (the legislation that took the UK into the EEC, repealed in the EU Withdrawal Act) so that EU law continues to apply during the transition.

And he says the UK’s financial settlement will be conditional on an agreement on trade. - The Guardian

If I am correct, this is the first time the UK government is saying that under certain circumstances, it will not pay on items it is legally committed to.

I see Mrs May has decided on the North Korea Brexit.

MaxPB

surby said:

Raab confirms that the withdrawal agreement and implementation bill (known as WAIB in Whitehall) will reinstate parts of the European Communities Act (the legislation that took the UK into the EEC, repealed in the EU Withdrawal Act) so that EU law continues to apply during the transition.

And he says the UK’s financial settlement will be conditional on an agreement on trade. - The Guardian

If I am correct, this is the first time the UK government is saying that under certain circumstances, it will not pay on items it is legally committed to.

Surby, how many Labour MPs do you think would defect to a new centrist party, if one ever got off the ground? I can count maybe four Tory MPs.

Philip_Thompson

surby said:

Raab confirms that the withdrawal agreement and implementation bill (known as WAIB in Whitehall) will reinstate parts of the European Communities Act (the legislation that took the UK into the EEC, repealed in the EU Withdrawal Act) so that EU law continues to apply during the transition.

And he says the UK’s financial settlement will be conditional on an agreement on trade. - The Guardian

If I am correct, this is the first time the UK government is saying that under certain circumstances, it will not pay on items it is legally committed to.

The UK's position is that it is not legally committed to the settlement.

grabcocque

surby said:

Raab confirms that the withdrawal agreement and implementation bill (known as WAIB in Whitehall) will reinstate parts of the European Communities Act (the legislation that took the UK into the EEC, repealed in the EU Withdrawal Act) so that EU law continues to apply during the transition.

And he says the UK’s financial settlement will be conditional on an agreement on trade. - The Guardian

If I am correct, this is the first time the UK government is saying that under certain circumstances, it will not pay on items it is legally committed to.

This, of course, will mean the UK defaulting on spending commitments it's already made.

Sure, Raab, why not? Let's add a sovereign debt crisis to the omnishambles too, why not?

kle4

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

It's reckless politics as he can't really outbid May with Leavers, while even a modest seepage to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP would see him haemorrhage seats, including to the Tories on a split vote.

For that very reason, I would suggest this means it's more likely that he's concluded there isn't going to be an imminent election, possibly not one while he's leader, and he can therefore come off the fence.

Isn't this positioning to provide the justification for voting with the ERG to bring down whatever agreement May manages to make with the EU (if there is one) and hopefully thereby trigger an election?

Even the looniest ERG-ers don't want a Corbyn government. They have to answer to middle class Tory activists, and enormous tax rises and the bankrupting of the country loom larger, for these people, than a period of quasi-ECJ oversight.

If TMay manages to push through some shoddy deal I expect 99% of Tories - even the Moggs and Cashs - to grit their teeth, swallow it, and hold on til a GE in 2022. Of course they will probably dump May and put a Leaver in her place, in the interim - hopefully someone who can campaign and has a political brain.

Then the sceptics will try and get a better post-Brexit deal.

I think the Fixed Term Parliaments Act muddies this issue somewhat because it means that a vote on the deal cannot be made explicitly a confidence vote.

So while Corbyn can justify voting with the ERG partly as a means to bring down the government, the ERG can justify voting with Corbyn because it doesn't, formally, bring down the government.

I'm sure we'll hear all about it in JRMs memoirs - Moggster's munificent musings.

surby

Polruan said:

MaxPB said:

Polruan said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1021722493869010944

Unlike no deal Brexit a new party won't come about by accident, so he and others need to get on with it, put in a lot of hard work, and then take some major chances. Even then it probably wouldnt work because the 2 party system isn't broken at all, but my interest in voting for a potential new party is waning with every second they whine about wanting one without doing it. At least he has taken the first step in leaving his old party, if not purely on ideological grounds.

Presumably one of the biggest barriers is the current parliamentary maths: if the Tories had say 40 seat majority a few pro-Europeans could defect without making too many waves, but in the current set up it would be absolutely nuclear. Judging by Grieve’s reluctance to push too hard on an issue he considered vitally important (for example) I’m not sure many if any Tories would be prepared to destabilise the government in this way.

I can count three, possibly four that might defect from Tory ranks, not sure about Labour. One of their members could do a count for us.

You could think of 50+ Labour MPs who would be tempted, but the problem is that they would be aware that for this to work it needs to be seen as a genuinely new non-partisan movement, and 50 Labour and a handful of each of LD and Tories won’t look like that. I’m not sure how that problem could be overcome.

In the ensuing chaos it’s easy to imagine Kate Hoey “accidentally” overshooting and ending up as a signed up ERGer taking the Conservative whip, but that’s by the by.

Kate Hoey is the 11th DUP MP.

Benpointer

kle4 said:

grabcocque said:

Thanks to Tory psychosis about Europe, we're now heading full steam towards a hard left Labour government and no EU free market and competition rules to restrain them.

So thanks for that.

It was the public who voted for it, and 52% of the voting electorate are not tories. Tories didn't create that 52%, they're just the biggest bunch in it.

The Tories mis-framed the referendum, failed to plan for a Leave vote, pissed about for 2 years arguing amongst themselves and have made an absolute horlicks of negotiating our exit.

I don't think you'll find the electorate blaming themselves!

ydoethur

surby said:

Raab confirms that the withdrawal agreement and implementation bill (known as WAIB in Whitehall) will reinstate parts of the European Communities Act (the legislation that took the UK into the EEC, repealed in the EU Withdrawal Act) so that EU law continues to apply during the transition.

And he says the UK’s financial settlement will be conditional on an agreement on trade. - The Guardian

If I am correct, this is the first time the UK government is saying that under certain circumstances, it will not pay on items it is legally committed to.

Making us look like the French Ministry of Agriculture. It's disgusting.

Benpointer

SeanT said:

grabcocque said:

Thanks to Tory psychosis about Europe, we're now heading full steam towards a hard left Labour government and no EU free market and competition rules to restrain them.

So thanks for that.

It is sub-optimal. I am on record as saying that if Brexit leads to a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Brexit vote. We are perilously headed in that direction.

Let's pray TMay can get some kind of OK-ish deal.

I'm sure she'll be cheered by the knowledge that she has your support Sean!

Foxy

surby said:

Raab confirms that the withdrawal agreement and implementation bill (known as WAIB in Whitehall) will reinstate parts of the European Communities Act (the legislation that took the UK into the EEC, repealed in the EU Withdrawal Act) so that EU law continues to apply during the transition.

And he says the UK’s financial settlement will be conditional on an agreement on trade. - The Guardian

If I am correct, this is the first time the UK government is saying that under certain circumstances, it will not pay on items it is legally committed to.

The withdrawal bill can only include a "general principles" trade agreement. There simply is no time for a full agreement. Quite what Raab means in that context is unclear, but he does not have a "laser like focus" in his own words.

kle4

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

grabcocque said:

Thanks to Tory psychosis about Europe, we're now heading full steam towards a hard left Labour government and no EU free market and competition rules to restrain them.

So thanks for that.

It was the public who voted for it, and 52% of the voting electorate are not tories. Tories didn't create that 52%, they're just the biggest bunch in it.

The Tories mis-framed the referendum, failed to plan for a Leave vote, pissed about for 2 years arguing amongst themselves and have made an absolute horlicks of negotiating our exit.

I don't think you'll find the electorate blaming themselves!

Never said they would. The Tories are in office, and have handled it badly due to party infighting, so will pay the price. But they didn't start it.

surby

SeanT said:

Incidentally, this is a rather fine and shocking piece by Toby Young (an old acquaintance of mine).

I was aware that he was forced to step down from the QAUNGO role, because of the monstering he got on Twitter and elsewhere.

I was unaware that as a consequence he lost ALL his positions, and his entire career was ruined, overnight. Just astonishing. And sobering. Whether you are on the left OR the right, these lynchings are horrible. They need to STOP.


https://quillette.com/2018/07/23/the-public-humiliation-diet/

Why ? He deserved everything.

Nigelb

SeanT said:

grabcocque said:

Thanks to Tory psychosis about Europe, we're now heading full steam towards a hard left Labour government and no EU free market and competition rules to restrain them.

So thanks for that.

It is sub-optimal. I am on record as saying that if Brexit leads to a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Brexit vote. We are perilously headed in that direction...

Well that's a huge relief to all of us.
Cancel the sleepless nights.

OblitusSumMe

Jonathan said:

Is Corbyn (or more precisely Milne) trying to engineer a split?

I think engineering splits has sometimes been seen as a way of consolidating power, so it is possible.

If you give them the benefit of the doubt and believe that they would rather there wasn't a split then they might still engineer one. It is advantageous to control the timing of a split if you cannot prevent it.

grabcocque

Philip_Thompson said:

The UK's position is that it is not legally committed to the settlement.

The UK's position is irrelevant. The UK does not get to decide its own credit rating.

Benpointer

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

grabcocque said:

Thanks to Tory psychosis about Europe, we're now heading full steam towards a hard left Labour government and no EU free market and competition rules to restrain them.

So thanks for that.

It was the public who voted for it, and 52% of the voting electorate are not tories. Tories didn't create that 52%, they're just the biggest bunch in it.

The Tories mis-framed the referendum, failed to plan for a Leave vote, pissed about for 2 years arguing amongst themselves and have made an absolute horlicks of negotiating our exit.

I don't think you'll find the electorate blaming themselves!

Never said they would. The Tories are in office, and have handled it badly due to party infighting, so will pay the price. But they didn't start it.

That's precisely what they did do!

kle4

surby said:

Raab confirms that the withdrawal agreement and implementation bill (known as WAIB in Whitehall) will reinstate parts of the European Communities Act (the legislation that took the UK into the EEC, repealed in the EU Withdrawal Act) so that EU law continues to apply during the transition.

And he says the UK’s financial settlement will be conditional on an agreement on trade. - The Guardian

If I am correct, this is the first time the UK government is saying that under certain circumstances, it will not pay on items it is legally committed to.

Yes more things the tories don't have majority support for. Not even sure why the government is going through the motions sometimes.

Recidivist

Anyone who is surprised by this speech from Corbyn doesn't know what Labour's left is actually all about. The looney left/hard left stereotype is pretty much the creation of the right wing tabloids. I'd personally pick the Blairite version of Labour given the choice, but Corbyn's approach isn't off the scale crazy as it often portrayed.

grabcocque

Foxy said:

The withdrawal bill can only include a "general principles" trade agreement. There simply is no time for a full agreement. Quite what Raab means in that context is unclear, but he does not have a "laser like focus" in his own words.

Raab is gonna have this job for, what, three months tops, before he's forced to resign or humiliate himself on the EU altar. He's making empty threats now because it's the only window he's going to have to play to the crowd.

RobD

surby said:

SeanT said:

Incidentally, this is a rather fine and shocking piece by Toby Young (an old acquaintance of mine).

I was aware that he was forced to step down from the QAUNGO role, because of the monstering he got on Twitter and elsewhere.

I was unaware that as a consequence he lost ALL his positions, and his entire career was ruined, overnight. Just astonishing. And sobering. Whether you are on the left OR the right, these lynchings are horrible. They need to STOP.


https://quillette.com/2018/07/23/the-public-humiliation-diet/

Why ? He deserved everything.

What did he do to deserve that?

surby

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

It's reckless politics as he can't really outbid May with Leavers, while even a modest seepage to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP would see him haemorrhage seats, including to the Tories on a split vote.

For that very reason, I would suggest this means it's more likely that he's concluded there isn't going to be an imminent election, possibly not one while he's leader, and he can therefore come off the fence.

https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/

kle4

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

grabcocque said:

Thanks to Tory psychosis about Europe, we're now heading full steam towards a hard left Labour government and no EU free market and competition rules to restrain them.

So thanks for that.

It was the public who voted for it, and 52% of the voting electorate are not tories. Tories didn't create that 52%, they're just the biggest bunch in it.

The Tories mis-framed the referendum, failed to plan for a Leave vote, pissed about for 2 years arguing amongst themselves and have made an absolute horlicks of negotiating our exit.

I don't think you'll find the electorate blaming themselves!

Never said they would. The Tories are in office, and have handled it badly due to party infighting, so will pay the price. But they didn't start it.

That's precisely what they did do!

No they didn't. They didn't create the public desire to leave that built and built to the point they felt they needed to give us a choice. The main party wanted us to make a different choice, but people from across the spectrum said otherwise.

To pretend the tories created the Brexit push is to give them too much influence. They opened a door, but they didn't make it and we chose, against advice, to walk through. While the Gov will of course be blamed for bad implementation, the public chose Brexit, not the tories.

Benpointer

SeanT said:

grabcocque said:

SeanT said:

Incidentally, this is a rather fine and shocking piece by Toby Young (an old acquaintance of mine).

It's Toby Young, though. A *world class* knob head.

Like us, he's spent a signifant proportion of his life trolling on the internet. Unlike us, though, he demanded to be taken seriously. That's where he went wrong.

I personally know Toby Young pretty well. He was a boorish if sometimes amusing drunk in his 20s, and a laddish but sometimes eloquent loafer in his 30s, in others words, quite like me, or you? We've all done and said stupid shit.

Since then I have met him and corresponded with him quite a few times, and (you can believe me or not) he has sincerely transformed into a thoughtful, hardworking, imaginative, and determined reformer on all kinds of educational matters. He's had success and failure, but he really means it, and he REALLY knows what he's talking about on lots of this stuff.

He personally gave me very good and kind advice when I had a painful, difficult family/educational decision to make. He took time to help me.

He's a nice guy, now. And very smart. He'd have been a good diverse voice on that board.

Instead, his talents are thrown aside and his reputation trashed because of some stupid tweets and the mere fact he's rightwing. It's ridiculous and sad. And it's now happening to the left as well:

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1021436636750598144

grabcocque said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The UK's position is that it is not legally committed to the settlement.

The UK's position is irrelevant. The UK does not get to decide its own credit rating.

+1 Well said!

surby

RobD said:

surby said:

SeanT said:

Incidentally, this is a rather fine and shocking piece by Toby Young (an old acquaintance of mine).

I was aware that he was forced to step down from the QAUNGO role, because of the monstering he got on Twitter and elsewhere.

I was unaware that as a consequence he lost ALL his positions, and his entire career was ruined, overnight. Just astonishing. And sobering. Whether you are on the left OR the right, these lynchings are horrible. They need to STOP.


https://quillette.com/2018/07/23/the-public-humiliation-diet/

Why ? He deserved everything.

What did he do to deserve that?

By being a pillock ?

Dura_Ace

kle4 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

ydoethur said:

surby said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has pushmepullme Jezza Brexit pulled itself a teeny bit too much in one direction?

He must think there will be a general election within months. Well, October - November or February - March.

I would have thought this would cause him serious problems at an election. It puts him firmly in the Leaver camp. Now of course, everyone who's paid attention knows he's been there all his life already. But that doesn't include most voters, who just knew he was less Brexit-oriented than May and voted accordingly.

It's reckless politics as he can't really outbid May with Leavers, while even a modest seepage to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP would see him haemorrhage seats, including to the Tories on a split vote.

For that very reason, I would suggest this means it's more likely that he's concluded there isn't going to be an imminent election, possibly not one while he's leader, and he can therefore come off the fence.

Isn't this positioning to provide the justification for voting with the ERG to bring down whatever agreement May manages to make with the EU (if there is one) and hopefully thereby trigger an election?

Even the looniest ERG-ers don't want a Corbyn government. They have to answer to middle class Tory activists, and enormous tax rises and the bankrupting of the country loom larger, for these people, than a period of quasi-ECJ oversight.

If TMay manages to push through some shoddy deal I expect 99% of Tories - even the Moggs and Cashs - to grit their teeth, swallow it, and hold on til a GE in 2022. Of course they will probably dump May and put a Leaver in her place, in the interim - hopefully someone who can campaign and has a political brain.

Then the sceptics will try and get a better post-Brexit deal.

I think the Fixed Term Parliaments Act muddies this issue somewhat because it means that a vote on the deal cannot be made explicitly a confidence vote.

So while Corbyn can justify voting with the ERG partly as a means to bring down the government, the ERG can justify voting with Corbyn because it doesn't, formally, bring down the government.

I'm sure we'll hear all about it in JRMs memoirs - Moggster's munificent musings.

"The Naked Papist"

AndyJS

O/T

"Sky News Breaking
‏Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
3m3 minutes ago

West Midlands Police says a 47-year-old woman has suffered serious injuries after a corrosive substance was thrown in her face today in Ladywood in Birmingham"

grabcocque

Dura_Ace said:

kle4 said:

I'm sure we'll hear all about it in JRMs memoirs - Moggster's munificent musings.

"The Naked Papist"

Every Mogg has his May

Nigelb

SeanT said:

Nigelb said:

SeanT said:

grabcocque said:

Thanks to Tory psychosis about Europe, we're now heading full steam towards a hard left Labour government and no EU free market and competition rules to restrain them.

So thanks for that.

It is sub-optimal. I am on record as saying that if Brexit leads to a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Brexit vote. We are perilously headed in that direction...

Well that's a huge relief to all of us.
Cancel the sleepless nights.

I'm here to soothe.

TOPPING

@MaxPB I think your four Tory MPs increases dramatically depending upon what power the brex-o-loons are able to grab.

A Mogg or even Boris takeover means it's all up for grabs.