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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Brexit speech isn’t going to endear him to large part

Corbyn is going full Trump:
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Finally go LD? Even Vince is not a fan apparently. Let us hope we don't find out - who knows how many of us woukd be caught in the blast. Yeah, but the base will love that bit.
Meanwhile, if you're bored with squabbling over the Irish border, there's good news: we can start squabbling about the Gibraltar border. I did think the Spanish were being amazingly quiet.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/24/gibraltar-spain-vents-frustration-with-uk-in-brexit-talks
Lab 39.4%
Con 38.1%
LD 9.0%
UKIP 5.1%
Green 2.9%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018
Changes since GE2017:
Lab -1.6%
Con -5.3%
LD +1.4%
UKIP +3.2%
Green +1.2%
His second greatest? Convincing the Corbynistas that Jeremy was with them in Remainderdom....
Also, for a new party woukd it be expected to vote against the government on most things? Woodcock probably thinks so, but the Soubrys of the world might not.
It's reckless politics as he can't really outbid May with Leavers, while even a modest seepage to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP would see him haemorrhage seats, including to the Tories on a split vote.
For that very reason, I would suggest this means it's more likely that he's concluded there isn't going to be an imminent election, possibly not one while he's leader, and he can therefore come off the fence.
Don't know whether the headline writer has a very advanced sense of humour or none at all.
Basically, on a serious note, they want control of Gibraltar's airport and financial systems in exchange for any deal covering Gibraltar (including the transition deal). The British are suggesting that for some reason this is not acceptable.
I should think most remainers aren't going anywhere. Better Brexit under Corbyn than may I woukd think.
Which would be disastrous for Labour. A few hundred votes vanishing in the wrong seats would see the Conservatives regain a majority.
That's why I think this clarification is made on the assumption there will not be an election. If there is, he's given a hostage to fortune now.
But even if he were trying that, it's not only risky but plain dumb. Triggering an election while seriously annoying a large part of your electorate didn't prove a winner for May.
Good politics by Corbyn.
But anything other than a meltdown of the UK economy will signal to everyone that the EU and SM are massively overrated and yes, this will lead to the EU coming under existential threat.
Getting to a ge us still problematic, but all these hypotheses are for chaotic breakdowns, so it could happen, and if it does I think Corbyn walks it. His own contradictions won't come home to roost early enough.
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1021698631882207233
So thanks for that.
Like us, he's spent a signifant proportion of his life trolling on the internet. Unlike us, though, he demanded to be taken seriously. That's where he went wrong.
In the ensuing chaos it’s easy to imagine Kate Hoey “accidentally” overshooting and ending up as a signed up ERGer taking the Conservative whip, but that’s by the by.
"I'm very tired."
So while Corbyn can justify voting with the ERG partly as a means to bring down the government, the ERG can justify voting with Corbyn because it doesn't, formally, bring down the government.
And he says the UK’s financial settlement will be conditional on an agreement on trade. - The Guardian
If I am correct, this is the first time the UK government is saying that under certain circumstances, it will not pay on items it is legally committed to.
Sure, Raab, why not? Let's add a sovereign debt crisis to the omnishambles too, why not?
I don't think you'll find the electorate blaming themselves!
Cancel the sleepless nights.
If you give them the benefit of the doubt and believe that they would rather there wasn't a split then they might still engineer one. It is advantageous to control the timing of a split if you cannot prevent it.
To pretend the tories created the Brexit push is to give them too much influence. They opened a door, but they didn't make it and we chose, against advice, to walk through. While the Gov will of course be blamed for bad implementation, the public chose Brexit, not the tories.
"Sky News Breaking
Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
3m3 minutes ago
West Midlands Police says a 47-year-old woman has suffered serious injuries after a corrosive substance was thrown in her face today in Ladywood in Birmingham"
A Mogg or even Boris takeover means it's all up for grabs.