There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to stay in power. I say that with some sadness - I've voted Tory almost all my life (bar '97), and I don't find anything much to love about this government.
Well Boris ties Corbyn with Yougov while May, Mogg, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn so it looks like either Boris succeeds May or Corbyn becomes PM after the next general election
Because a single poll taken today is absolutely guaranteed to predict what will happen in several years' time.
“It’s too difficult to leave the EU, so we should stop trying”.
Okay then, how many Leavers is he expecting to be turned around with that argument?
I have just read the article. That isn't what he is saying at all. Incidentally the article does contain a bit of Article 50 I didn't know about.
‘3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.’
So it looks like extending the negotiation period is quite straight forward after all. That's not the impression I got.
An extension of A50 requires unanimous approval from the other 27 EU states. It’s easy to see how one might get set up to disagree and promulgate the crash-out instead.
But an extension would be in everyone's interest. It would allow enough time for a general election where different programmes for leaving could be put to the electorate. It would be a lot easier to get agreement if you had a party in power with a working majority and a mandate for what it was trying to achieve. Why not wait until then?
Your comment only relates to the U.K. side. Why wouldn’t the EU side decide between themselves that Luxembourg was unhappy to extend and the UK crashes out on March 29th instead?
We don't know what they would think, but I can't see any reason why they should want Britain to leave in bad order.
“It’s too difficult to leave the EU, so we should stop trying”.
Okay then, how many Leavers is he expecting to be turned around with that argument?
I have just read the article. That isn't what he is saying at all. Incidentally the article does contain a bit of Article 50 I didn't know about.
‘3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.’
So it looks like extending the negotiation period is quite straight forward after all. That's not the impression I got.
An extension of A50 requires unanimous approval from the other 27 EU states. It’s easy to see how one might get set up to disagree and promulgate the crash-out instead.
But an extension would be in everyone's interest. It would allow enough time for a general election where different programmes for leaving could be put to the electorate. It would be a lot easier to get agreement if you had a party in power with a working majority and a mandate for what it was trying to achieve. Why not wait until then?
Because it's an obvious - and admitted - ruse to cancel Brexit and invalidate a democratic result.
But the referendum only said we should leave. It didn't say how we should leave. There doesn't seem to be any agreement on that at the moment. Isn't deciding this kind of thing exactly what elections are all about.
There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to stay in power. I say that with some sadness - I've voted Tory almost all my life (bar '97), and I don't find anything much to love about this government.
It could be different with an inspirational leader who believed in their programme of government. Unfortunately I'm not sure that either is possible. Even then, look what Blair did to us.
There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to stay in power. I say that with some sadness - I've voted Tory almost all my life (bar '97), and I don't find anything much to love about this government.
Well Boris ties Corbyn with Yougov while May, Mogg, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn so it looks like either Boris succeeds May or Corbyn becomes PM after the next general election
Because a single poll taken today is absolutely guaranteed to predict what will happen in several years' time.
Hyufd has amazing knowledge of all things poliitics but his inability ever to challenge polls is his weakness
Why anyone is surprised TM is unpopular is a surprise in itelf. She is caught between Brexiteers and Remainers while she is attempting to negotiate a deal that protects business but ensures we leave
I do wonder if she manages a deal just how remainer and leave mps will be able to vote it down and plunge the Country into even deeper despair
I do think the Country should recognise that at least she is holding on in there when most would just pass the batton over to someone else, who would be in the exact same invidious position
Interesting debate on a holiday club Facebook page or 'After Brexit'. Some of the sites are in UK, some in Western Europe. General opinion was that'everything would be allright', there'd be no problems getting to the Club's sites in France and Spain. Basically summed up by the member who opined that it was the Millenium Bug all over again.
I wonder .........
France and Spain are really going to stop tourists coming?
It must already be close to the point where travel agencies and airlines can’t book flights and accommodations for next summer that are insurable against cancellation. Resorts in France, Spain, Portugal and Italy are going bust if the British block bookings don’t get confirmed soon.
Apparently the organisation I belong to is booking accommodation, since it's for members. Travel must be a bit more problematic though.
There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to stay in power. I say that with some sadness - I've voted Tory almost all my life (bar '97), and I don't find anything much to love about this government.
Well Boris ties Corbyn with Yougov while May, Mogg, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn so it looks like either Boris succeeds May or Corbyn becomes PM after the next general election
I don't much care about the personalities, I care about the policies.
There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to stay in power. I say that with some sadness - I've voted Tory almost all my life (bar '97), and I don't find anything much to love about this government.
Well Boris ties Corbyn with Yougov while May, Mogg, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn so it looks like either Boris succeeds May or Corbyn becomes PM after the next general election
Because a single poll taken today is absolutely guaranteed to predict what will happen in several years' time.
Hyufd has amazing knowledge of all things poliitics but his inability ever to challenge polls is his weakness
Why anyone is surprised TM is unpopular is a surprise in itelf. She is caught between Brexiteers and Remainers while she is attempting to negotiate a deal that protects business but ensures we leave
I do wonder if she manages a deal just how remainer and leave mps will be able to vote it down and plunge the Country into even deeper despair
I do think the Country should recognise that at least she is holding on in there when most would just pass the batton over to someone else, who would be in the exact same invidious position
There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to stay in power. I say that with some sadness - I've voted Tory almost all my life (bar '97), and I don't find anything much to love about this government.
Well Boris ties Corbyn with Yougov while May, Mogg, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn so it looks like either Boris succeeds May or Corbyn becomes PM after the next general election
Because a single poll taken today is absolutely guaranteed to predict what will happen in several years' time.
Hyufd has amazing knowledge of all things poliitics but his inability ever to challenge polls is his weakness
Why anyone is surprised TM is unpopular is a surprise in itelf. She is caught between Brexiteers and Remainers while she is attempting to negotiate a deal that protects business but ensures we leave
I do wonder if she manages a deal just how remainer and leave mps will be able to vote it down and plunge the Country into even deeper despair
I do think the Country should recognise that at least she is holding on in there when most would just pass the batton over to someone else, who would be in the exact same invidious position
I'm never quite sure why May's fans view her clinging desperately to power no matter the cost to party and country while the Brexit clock ticks away as something to be lauded
There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to stay in power. I say that with some sadness - I've voted Tory almost all my life (bar '97), and I don't find anything much to love about this government.
Well Boris ties Corbyn with Yougov while May, Mogg, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn so it looks like either Boris succeeds May or Corbyn becomes PM after the next general election
Because a single poll taken today is absolutely guaranteed to predict what will happen in several years' time.
Hyufd has amazing knowledge of all things poliitics but his inability ever to challenge polls is his weakness
Why anyone is surprised TM is unpopular is a surprise in itelf. She is caught between Brexiteers and Remainers while she is attempting to negotiate a deal that protects business but ensures we leave
I do wonder if she manages a deal just how remainer and leave mps will be able to vote it down and plunge the Country into even deeper despair
I do think the Country should recognise that at least she is holding on in there when most would just pass the batton over to someone else, who would be in the exact same invidious position
That sounds just a tad too sensible
I fear you may be right but let's hope the grown ups prevail
There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to stay in power. I say that with some sadness - I've voted Tory almost all my life (bar '97), and I don't find anything much to love about this government.
Well Boris ties Corbyn with Yougov while May, Mogg, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn so it looks like either Boris succeeds May or Corbyn becomes PM after the next general election
Because a single poll taken today is absolutely guaranteed to predict what will happen in several years' time.
Hyufd has amazing knowledge of all things poliitics but his inability ever to challenge polls is his weakness
Why anyone is surprised TM is unpopular is a surprise in itelf. She is caught between Brexiteers and Remainers while she is attempting to negotiate a deal that protects business but ensures we leave
I do wonder if she manages a deal just how remainer and leave mps will be able to vote it down and plunge the Country into even deeper despair
I do think the Country should recognise that at least she is holding on in there when most would just pass the batton over to someone else, who would be in the exact same invidious position
I'm never quite sure why May's fans view her clinging desperately to power no matter the cost to party and country while the Brexit clock ticks away as something to be lauded
If there was an alternative I would be the first to call TM's time over but there is not, unless you have someone in mind
There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to stay in power. I say that with some sadness - I've voted Tory almost all my life (bar '97), and I don't find anything much to love about this government.
Well Boris ties Corbyn with Yougov while May, Mogg, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn so it looks like either Boris succeeds May or Corbyn becomes PM after the next general election
Because a single poll taken today is absolutely guaranteed to predict what will happen in several years' time.
Hyufd has amazing knowledge of all things poliitics but his inability ever to challenge polls is his weakness
Why anyone is surprised TM is unpopular is a surprise in itelf. She is caught between Brexiteers and Remainers while she is attempting to negotiate a deal that protects business but ensures we leave
I do wonder if she manages a deal just how remainer and leave mps will be able to vote it down and plunge the Country into even deeper despair
I do think the Country should recognise that at least she is holding on in there when most would just pass the batton over to someone else, who would be in the exact same invidious position
I'm never quite sure why May's fans view her clinging desperately to power no matter the cost to party and country while the Brexit clock ticks away as something to be lauded
If there was an alternative I would be the first to call TM's time over but there is not, unless you have someone in mind
We could do a lot worse than May, and I can't think of anyone else with the bloody-mindedness to keep going through all this without making far worse mistakes.
There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to stay in power. I say that with some sadness - I've voted Tory almost all my life (bar '97), and I don't find anything much to love about this government.
Well Boris ties Corbyn with Yougov while May, Mogg, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn so it looks like either Boris succeeds May or Corbyn becomes PM after the next general election
Because a single poll taken today is absolutely guaranteed to predict what will happen in several years' time.
Hyufd has amazing knowledge of all things poliitics but his inability ever to challenge polls is his weakness
Why anyone is surprised TM is unpopular is a surprise in itelf. She is caught between Brexiteers and Remainers while she is attempting to negotiate a deal that protects business but ensures we leave
I do wonder if she manages a deal just how remainer and leave mps will be able to vote it down and plunge the Country into even deeper despair
I do think the Country should recognise that at least she is holding on in there when most would just pass the batton over to someone else, who would be in the exact same invidious position
I'm never quite sure why May's fans view her clinging desperately to power no matter the cost to party and country while the Brexit clock ticks away as something to be lauded
If there was an alternative I would be the first to call TM's time over but there is not, unless you have someone in mind
We could do a lot worse than May, and I can't think of anyone else with the bloody-mindedness to keep going through all this without making far worse mistakes.
I'm never quite sure why May's fans view her clinging desperately to power no matter the cost to party and country while the Brexit clock ticks away as something to be lauded
If there was an alternative I would be the first to call TM's time over but there is not, unless you have someone in mind
I'm getting to the point of thinking that just about anybody willing to pick a stance, stick to it, and tell their opponents to put up or shut up would be better. Even if we ended up with a hard brexiter, we'd at least have a No Deal with a couple of years of dedicated preparation, instead of the car-crash No Deal we seem to be headed for now.
Admittedly though I'm not completely sure that Theresa May's brand of fudge won't work out. If it does, then I'll take it all back. But I'm getting less and less optimistic by the day.
There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to stay in power. I say that with some sadness - I've voted Tory almost all my life (bar '97), and I don't find anything much to love about this government.
Well Boris ties Corbyn with Yougov while May, Mogg, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn so it looks like either Boris succeeds May or Corbyn becomes PM after the next general election
Because a single poll taken today is absolutely guaranteed to predict what will happen in several years' time.
Hyufd has amazing knowledge of all things poliitics but his inability ever to challenge polls is his weakness
Why anyone is surprised TM is unpopular is a surprise in itelf. She is caught between Brexiteers and Remainers while she is attempting to negotiate a deal that protects business but ensures we leave
I do wonder if she manages
I'm never quite sure why May's fans view her clinging desperately to power no matter the cost to party and country while the Brexit clock ticks away as something to be lauded
If there was an alternative I would be the first to call TM's time over but there is not, unless you have someone in mind
Or as Hilaire Belloc put it in his monologue "Jim"
The lion having reached his head The miserable boy was dead When nurse informed his parents they Were more concerned than I can say His mother as she dried her eyes Said "It gives me no surprise He would not do as he was told." His father who was self-controlled Bade all the children round attend To James's miserable end. And always keep ahold of nurse For fear of finding something worse.
I'm never quite sure why May's fans view her clinging desperately to power no matter the cost to party and country while the Brexit clock ticks away as something to be lauded
If there was an alternative I would be the first to call TM's time over but there is not, unless you have someone in mind
I'm getting to the point of thinking that just about anybody willing to pick a stance, stick to it, and tell their opponents to put up or shut up would be better. Even if we ended up with a hard brexiter, we'd at least have a No Deal with a couple of years of dedicated preparation, instead of the car-crash No Deal we seem to be headed for now.
Admittedly though I'm not completely sure that Theresa May's brand of fudge won't work out. If it does, then I'll take it all back. But I'm getting less and less optimistic by the day.
I think most of us share your view in the last sentence but right now we need someone who is not a red rag to a bull to one side or the other. She has the hardest job I can ever remember a British PM to face since the last war
I'm never quite sure why May's fans view her clinging desperately to power no matter the cost to party and country while the Brexit clock ticks away as something to be lauded
If there was an alternative I would be the first to call TM's time over but there is not, unless you have someone in mind
I'm getting to the point of thinking that just about anybody willing to pick a stance, stick to it, and tell their opponents to put up or shut up would be better. Even if we ended up with a hard brexiter, we'd at least have a No Deal with a couple of years of dedicated preparation, instead of the car-crash No Deal we seem to be headed for now.
Admittedly though I'm not completely sure that Theresa May's brand of fudge won't work out. If it does, then I'll take it all back. But I'm getting less and less optimistic by the day.
I think most of us share your view in the last sentence but right now we need someone who is not a red rag to a bull to one side or the other. She has the hardest job I can ever remember a British PM to face since the last war
I'm with Big G on this. My take is that TM is proposing the only solution that is a genuine Brexit but which reduces dusruption to a minimum and maintains close links with the EU. I guess there is room for a few tweaks but the path is very narrow and she occupies it which is one reason her adversaries are being driven mad. Yes, the EU may refuse but they will then be the villains. May's replacement would then run a "khaki" election to some extent which might be effective. If Labour support maniacal Tory rebels and opportunist Nationalists to stop it then they will make a colossal error.
I think if TM gets through Conference she will be there until Brexit. Chances have to be an April/May departure. Getting Brexit done, for better or worse, will give her a ‘legacy’, that thing all PMs crave, and allow her to neatly close her own chapter in British politics being able to say ‘I had a tough, short but eventful time at the top, and I transformed the British constitution’.
As others have said the problem with a challenge is that the alternative doesn’t look to be any better. Javid needs time to bed in as Home Sec (although it’s hard not to see things like the posturing today to be positioning for a leadership bid next year). Boris, Davis and Rudd are busted flushes. Rees-Mogg and Hammond won’t unite both wings of the party and would probably cause it to implode. Leadsom is still too inexperienced. Mordaunt hasn’t held a senior enough role yet. Davidson isn’t in Parliament. Hunt and Gove look ok on paper but both alienate large tracts of the voting public. Javid has to be the favourite, but I can’t think he’d want to move against May now. She is still likely to survive a no confidence vote.
I've just heard that a very close friend of mine has died after committing suicide and I'm just totally devastated
Sorry to read your news, sometimes we can not comprehend the internal turmoil of others.
My best friend at Uni took his own life completely out of the blue. He was probably the funniest, most cheerful bloke in our entire Year. And we just couldn't believe it.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
Germans love telling other countries what to do it seems. Give it a week and we'll be hearing, we'll build and wall and make the British pay for it.
A hard border in Ireland doesn't really impact the UK much economically.
In brief: a general election is unlikely to solve it because you can’t use a general election to obtain an incontrovertible mandate for any given policy so a referendum is the only option, but this time round it needs to bear less resemblance to something cobbled together by a mediocre and hungover undergraduate with three essays due within 24 hours. And possibly involve more than one referendum.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
Remember, I belong to the League of Spitfire Owning, Empire Worshipping Brexiteers. However, this guy Pfeiffer is as close to a nonentity as you can get without actually being Andrea Leadsom.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
Germans love telling other countries what to do it seems. Give it a week and we'll be hearing, we'll build and wall and make the British pay for it.
A hard border in Ireland doesn't really impact the UK much economically.
ho hum.
While a Hard Border in Ireland has importance in itself, it is also the same border in the Channel, just in sharper focus.
I am really finding the Tory squirming quite interesting as it is completely unclear quite how it all ends. Vassal state Brexit is probably in pole position, but clown car crash Brexit is not far behind, with the possibility of A50 suspension or a #peoplevote trailing at some distance.
I have arranged my own affairs to cover all the above, so can spectate with interest.
I'm never quite sure why May's fans view her clinging desperately to power no matter the cost to party and country while the Brexit clock ticks away as something to be lauded
If there was an alternative I would be the first to call TM's time over but there is not, unless you have someone in mind
I'm getting to the point of thinking that just about anybody willing to pick a stance, stick to it, and tell their opponents to put up or shut up would be better. Even if we ended up with a hard brexiter, we'd at least have a No Deal with a couple of years of dedicated preparation, instead of the car-crash No Deal we seem to be headed for now.
Admittedly though I'm not completely sure that Theresa May's brand of fudge won't work out. If it does, then I'll take it all back. But I'm getting less and less optimistic by the day.
I think most of us share your view in the last sentence but right now we need someone who is not a red rag to a bull to one side or the other. She has the hardest job I can ever remember a British PM to face since the last war
I'm with Big G on this. My take is that TM is proposing the only solution that is a genuine Brexit but which reduces dusruption to a minimum and maintains close links with the EU. I guess there is room for a few tweaks but the path is very narrow and she occupies it which is one reason her adversaries are being driven mad. Yes, the EU may refuse but they will then be the villains. May's replacement would then run a "khaki" election to some extent which might be effective. If Labour support maniacal Tory rebels and opportunist Nationalists to stop it then they will make a colossal error.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
The Irish are riding the wrong horse. That's why they are becoming increasingly shrill. Varadkar has realised it.
It's hard to see any outcome that isn't wretched for Ireland. The high-tech work being done by Varadker's predecessor was probably the only answer. Varadker has trashed that.
I'm never quite sure why May's fans view her clinging desperately to power no matter the cost to party and country while the Brexit clock ticks away as something to be lauded
If there was an alternative I would be the first to call TM's time over but there is not, unless you have someone in mind
I'm getting to the point of thinking that just about anybody willing to pick a stance, stick to it, and tell their opponents to put up or shut up would be better. Even if we ended up with a hard brexiter, we'd at least have a No Deal with a couple of years of dedicated preparation, instead of the car-crash No Deal we seem to be headed for now.
Admittedly though I'm not completely sure that Theresa May's brand of fudge won't work out. If it does, then I'll take it all back. But I'm getting less and less optimistic by the day.
I think most of us share your view in the last sentence but right now we need someone who is not a red rag to a bull to one side or the other. She has the hardest job I can ever remember a British PM to face since the last war
I'm with Big G on this. My take is that TM is proposing the only solution that is a genuine Brexit but which reduces dusruption to a minimum and maintains close links with the EU. I guess there is room for a few tweaks but the path is very narrow and she occupies it which is one reason her adversaries are being driven mad. Yes, the EU may refuse but they will then be the villains. May's replacement would then run a "khaki" election to some extent which might be effective. If Labour support maniacal Tory rebels and opportunist Nationalists to stop it then they will make a colossal error.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
Don't they have a veto within the EU?
Even if the requirement to maintain borders with third countries was a unanimity rather than QMV matter (not sure which) Ireland would only have the power to veto changes - I can't see how a veto could translate into an a unilateral opt-out from the current status quo.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
Don't they have a veto within the EU?
They are playing Russian roulette at present and I think Ireland are in a very dodgy position and may end up being caught in the crossfire
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
Border in the bay of biscay? No. But while I've doubt most Irish anger will be reserved for us for provoking this situation, much like our own torturous desperations over Brexit ultimately whoevers fault it was is secondary to dealing with it, and Ireland looks like taking the biggest hit of any EU country. The EU woukd be wise to make sure the rest support Ireland a great deal.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
This expectation of EU countries fighting their own corners has long been predicted. Either it won't happen, or it will not be so severe as to be significant.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
This expectation of EU countries fighting their own corners has long been predicted. Either it won't happen, or it will not be so severe as to be significant.
You cannot tell that at present. This could get very nasty within Europe itself
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
Don't they have a veto within the EU?
Even if the requirement to maintain borders with third countries was a unanimity rather than QMV matter (not sure which) Ireland would only have the power to veto changes - I can't see how a veto could translate into an a unilateral opt-out from the current status quo.
Per Article 50; the final deal needs to be approved by the EP, then QMV rules apply to the subsequent European council vote.
There's a curious phenomenon that the latest YouGov poll shows. Conservative voters are now more Remainy than they were in 2017, despite the party being indelibly associated with Brexit. If Conservative Leavers start to get cold feet, the last remaining domestic political barrier to a second referendum will fall away.
Though more Conservative voters back No Deal Brexit than Labour voters oppose No Deal Brexit and the main reason Tory voters are more Remain than 2017 is 10% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to UKIP
Perhaps remainers should fund UKIP to get it back on its feet so it can filter more loonies out of the Conservative Party.
And hand the next general election to Corbyn
I don't think there's anything the Tories can do to ent.
Well Boris ties Corbyn with Yougov while May, Mogg, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn so it al election
Because a single poll taken today is absolutely guaranteed to predict what will happen in several years' time.
Hyufd has amazing knowledge of all things poliitics but his inability ever to challenge polls is his weakness
Why anyone is surprised TM is unpopular is a surprise in itelf. She is caught between Brexiteers and Remainers while she is try into even deeper despair
I do think the Country should recognise that at least she is holding on in there when most would just pass the batton over to someone else, who would be in the exact same invidious position
I'm never quite sure why May's fans view
If there was an alternative I would be the first to call TM's time over but there is not, unless you have someone in mind
We could do a lot worse than May, and I can't think of anyone else with the bloody-mindedness to keep going through all this without making far worse mistakes.
There might be someone, however given the lack of courage to resign a long time ago - Davis and co mention concerns going back from before Chequers - and lack of courage to force a vote of no confidence in May, it is certainly the case that if there is someone else, they sure as shit don't want the job right now.
May is not clinging on to power. She could be gone at any time and knows it. But those who have to wield the knife won't act, so she has to go through the motions.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
This expectation of EU countries fighting their own corners has long been predicted. Either it won't happen, or it will not be so severe as to be significant.
Which other eu country except ireland has a corner to fight?
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
Don't they have a veto within the EU?
Even if the requirement to maintain borders with third countries was a unanimity rather than QMV matter (not sure which) Ireland would only have the power to veto changes - I can't see how a veto could translate into an a unilateral opt-out from the current status quo.
Per Article 50; the final deal needs to be approved by the EP, then QMV rules apply to the subsequent European council vote.
Thanks, that's helpful - neither those would allow Ireland to block the need to apply border controls in line with its participation in the EU treaties though. If the final deal softened those controls, Ireland (along with others) could reject that softening or be part of rejecting any deal, but that would have the effect of going back to the default "hard border" situation wouldn't it?
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
This expectation of EU countries fighting their own corners has long been predicted. Either it won't happen, or it will not be so severe as to be significant.
You cannot tell that at present. This could get very nasty within Europe itself
There are four or five countries that would be materially affected by a disorderly Brexit, and they're all relative minnows - Ireland being one of them. The rest couldn't give two hoots.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
This expectation of EU countries fighting their own corners has long been predicted. Either it won't happen, or it will not be so severe as to be significant.
You cannot tell that at present. This could get very nasty within Europe itself
Certainly I am not a great prognosticator. But I simply regard it as highly unlikely given the past few years and the presence of us to blame for any downsides to a crash out.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
Don't they have a veto within the EU?
Even if the requirement to maintain borders with third countries was a unanimity rather than QMV matter (not sure which) Ireland would only have the power to veto changes - I can't see how a veto could translate into an a unilateral opt-out from the current status quo.
Per Article 50; the final deal needs to be approved by the EP, then QMV rules apply to the subsequent European council vote.
Thanks, that's helpful - neither those would allow Ireland to block the need to apply border controls in line with its participation in the EU treaties though. If the final deal softened those controls, Ireland (along with others) could reject that softening or be part of rejecting any deal, but that would have the effect of going back to the default "hard border" situation wouldn't it?
Yes, the Irish are in a curious position. They've taken quite a strong line, but if we did exit to the legendary WTO status, they would be at least as badly damaged as we would and the border would be oh so very much in evidence.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
The Irish are riding the wrong horse. That's why they are becoming increasingly shrill. Varadkar has realised it.
However, if it came to it, I believe Ireland would just say No to a hard border, as would the UK. Neither side would erect any infrastructure. What would the EU do then? Pursue Ireland through the ECJ, forcing them to build a fence, risking renewed violence? Then the EU would get all the blame. Not gonna happen
An open border in Ireland would become one of those weird illegal anomalies everyone tolerates as the legal alternative is worse. There would be significant but random customs checks many miles away from the frontier.
I thought the issue was that if Ireland disapplies its border controls with a third country (the UK) then the EU would be open to challenge under WTO rules by every other third country that receives less favourable treatment? While it might be in the interests of everyone in the EU to ignore the anomaly, it would be beneficial to other countries to pay a lot of attention to it.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
This expectation of EU countries fighting their own corners has long been predicted. Either it won't happen, or it will not be so severe as to be significant.
Which other eu country except ireland has a corner to fight?
Well it is accepted on both sides, for the most part, that no deal is not in the best interests of anyone, though we get hit worse, so I presume others have issues they might be less than happy about come a crash out. But I regard it as improbable such is significant enough to sway the rest, when like the JRMs of this world they are on an all or nothing strategy.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
The UK will either have to have a hard border with Ireland, or to have open borders with other WTO countries.
Though in such a hostile, hard Brexit enviroment, erecting such a border will just be par for the course. One of many hosile acts in such a divorce.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
This expectation of EU countries fighting their own corners has long been predicted. Either it won't happen, or it will not be so severe as to be significant.
You cannot tell that at present. This could get very nasty within Europe itself
There are four or five countries that would be materially affected by a disorderly Brexit, and they're all relative minnows - Ireland being one of them. The rest couldn't give two hoots.
Holland is not a minnow, and they will suffer, considerably. And of course 3.5m Europeans in the UK.....
Relative is as relative does. Holland gets 3.8% of the total under QMV. I'm prepared to upgrade them to 'Roach' or 'Miller's thumb' - no one can say I'm not a reasonable creature.
The latest IMF report on the EZ countries put the 12 year impact of a WTO Brexit at ~2% less growth than Bremain for the Dutch, and around 4% for the bogtrotters. Of course, the graph will likely be hockey stick shaped, but they didn't include that in t'report.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
Border in the bay of biscay? No. But while I've doubt most Irish anger will be reserved for us for provoking this situation, much like our own torturous desperations over Brexit ultimately whoevers fault it was is secondary to dealing with it, and Ireland looks like taking the biggest hit of any EU country. The EU woukd be wise to make sure the rest support Ireland a great deal.
It's good cop bad cop.
If, say, Germany pushes for a border then the UK has no option but to agree to anything that means there won't be a border. It is exquisitely clever.
We, or at least the sensible PBers have noted how the EU, Ireland, and the UK all don't want a border so it was crazy and illogical that anyone was suggesting it.
Now someone is suggesting it. And it is a bluff we can't call.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
Border in the bay of biscay? No. But while I've doubt most Irish anger will be reserved for us for provoking this situation, much like our own torturous desperations over Brexit ultimately whoevers fault it was is secondary to dealing with it, and Ireland looks like taking the biggest hit of any EU country. The EU woukd be wise to make sure the rest support Ireland a great deal.
It's good cop bad cop.
If, say, Germany pushes for a border then the UK has no option but to agree to anything that means there won't be a border. It is exquisitely clever.
We, or at least the sensible PBers have noted how the EU, Ireland, and the UK all don't want a border so it was crazy and illogical that anyone was suggesting it.
Now someone is suggesting it. It is a bluff we can't call.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
Border in the bay of biscay? No. But while I've doubt most Irish anger will be reserved for us for provoking this situation, much like our own torturous desperations over Brexit ultimately whoevers fault it was is secondary to dealing with it, and Ireland looks like taking the biggest hit of any EU country. The EU woukd be wise to make sure the rest support Ireland a great deal.
It's good cop bad cop.
If, say, Germany pushes for a border then the UK has no option but to agree to anything that means there won't be a border. It is exquisitely clever.
We, or at least the sensible PBers have noted how the EU, Ireland, and the UK all don't want a border so it was crazy and illogical that anyone was suggesting it.
Now someone is suggesting it. And it is a bluff we can't call.
In a hard Brexit we can - let Ireland erect and maintain the border
The death penalty had significant support pre Brexit and will post brexit I have no doubt. I can't sat I recall it as a major moan about the EU as, say, immigration, so I doubt either party will change stance soon.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
The UK will either have to have a hard border with Ireland, or to have open borders with other WTO countries.
Though in such a hostile, hard Brexit enviroment, erecting such a border will just be par for the course. One of many hosile acts in such a divorce.
I'm perfectly content that the UK can have soft customs arrangements on all its land borders. ...
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
This expectation of EU countries fighting their own corners has long been predicted. Either it won't happen, or it will not be so severe as to be significant.
You cannot tell that at present. This could get very nasty within Europe itself
There are four or five countries that would be materially affected by a disorderly Brexit, and they're all relative minnows - Ireland being one of them. The rest couldn't give two hoots.
Holland is not a minnow, and they will suffer, considerably. And of course 3.5m Europeans in the UK.....
Relative is as relative does. Holland gets 3.8% of the total under QMV. I'm prepared to upgrade them to 'Roach' or 'Miller's thumb' - no one can say I'm not a reasonable creature.
The latest IMF report on the EZ countries put the 12 year impact of a WTO Brexit at ~2% less growth than Bremain for the Dutch, and around 4% for the bogtrotters.
While the Brexit deal is QMV, as I recall any Trade Deal requires unanimity, as we saw in CETA and the Belgians. Best not piss off too many "minnows" .
I'd have thought that, in exchange for suspending article 50, the EU27 will demand a price that consists of precisely one thing: a new general election.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
The UK will either have to have a hard border with Ireland, or to have open borders with other WTO countries.
Though in such a hostile, hard Brexit enviroment, erecting such a border will just be par for the course. One of many hosile acts in such a divorce.
I'm perfectly content that the UK can have soft customs arrangements on all its land borders. ...
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
This expectation of EU countries fighting their own corners has long been predicted. Either it won't happen, or it will not be so severe as to be significant.
You cannot tell that at present. This could get very nasty within Europe itself
There are four or five countries that would be materially affected by a disorderly Brexit, and they're all relative minnows - Ireland being one of them. The rest couldn't give two hoots.
Holland is not a minnow, and they will suffer, considerably. And of course 3.5m Europeans in the UK.....
Relative is as relative does. Holland gets 3.8% of the total under QMV. I'm prepared to upgrade them to 'Roach' or 'Miller's thumb' - no one can say I'm not a reasonable creature.
The latest IMF report on the EZ countries put the 12 year impact of a WTO Brexit at ~2% less growth than Bremain for the Dutch, and around 4% for the bogtrotters.
-4% for the UK too, isn't it? We will survive.
Of course we will, frothing aside. However, while the 2030 UK economy is going to be around a fifth larger than it is now, it's going to be shaped differently. London will continue to get wealthier relative to the rest of the country, but the automotive & aerospace sectors will probably be considerably smaller (this is per the IFS regional analysis).
I'd have thought that, in exchange for suspending article 50, the EU27 will demand a price that consists of precisely one thing: a new general election.
They've already said it can't happen without one. They can't have it both ways
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
The UK will either have to have a hard border with Ireland, or to have open borders with other WTO countries.
Though in such a hostile, hard Brexit enviroment, erecting such a border will just be par for the course. One of many hosile acts in such a divorce.
I'm perfectly content that the UK can have soft customs arrangements on all its land borders. ...
...
Penny dropped?
Take back control, by having zero control?
Good luck selling that on the doorsteps!
Do people really care that much about customs? I suspect not.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
Border in the bay of biscay? No. But while I've doubt most Irish anger will be reserved for us for provoking this situation, much like our own torturous desperations over Brexit ultimately whoevers fault it was is secondary to dealing with it, and Ireland looks like taking the biggest hit of any EU country. The EU woukd be wise to make sure the rest support Ireland a great deal.
It's good cop bad cop.
If, say, Germany pushes for a border then the UK has no option but to agree to anything that means there won't be a border. It is exquisitely clever.
We, or at least the sensible PBers have noted how the EU, Ireland, and the UK all don't want a border so it was crazy and illogical that anyone was suggesting it.
Now someone is suggesting it. It is a bluff we can't call.
Err. What?
If you know someone has a duff hand, you call it.
We cannot. Because we simply cannot take the chance that they actually mean it.
At the end of the day what does Germany know or care about the last 500 years of Irish history? Fuck all. Just like most PB Leavers on here.
I'd have thought that, in exchange for suspending article 50, the EU27 will demand a price that consists of precisely one thing: a new general election.
They have no power to intervene in that way. It would makes things worse, much worse
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
The UK will either have to have a hard border with Ireland, or to have open borders with other WTO countries.
Though in such a hostile, hard Brexit enviroment, erecting such a border will just be par for the course. One of many hosile acts in such a divorce.
I'm perfectly content that the UK can have soft customs arrangements on all its land borders. ...
...
Penny dropped?
Take back control, by having zero control?
Good luck selling that on the doorsteps!
Just think about it for a minute.
I canvass all the time. It would be very easy to sell a soft Irish border with:
- no FOM - with no benefits paid to EU citizens - no ongoing payments to the EU - control of all our laws and regulations
Literally no one has ever suggested that we should have a hard border in Ireland; we've had the CTA with them for decades...
I'd have thought that, in exchange for suspending article 50, the EU27 will demand a price that consists of precisely one thing: a new general election.
They have no power to intervene in that way. It would makes things worse, much worse
What do you mean? Revoking/extending article 50 requires unanimous consent of the EU27. They'll extract a heavy price for any capitulation. Demanding a new general election would see the UK getting off lightly.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
The UK will either have to have a hard border with Ireland, or to have open borders with other WTO countries.
Though in such a hostile, hard Brexit enviroment, erecting such a border will just be par for the course. One of many hosile acts in such a divorce.
I'm perfectly content that the UK can have soft customs arrangements on all its land borders. ...
...
Penny dropped?
Take back control, by having zero control?
Good luck selling that on the doorsteps!
Do people really care that much about customs? I suspect not.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
Border in the bay of biscay? No. But while I've doubt most Irish anger will be reserved for us for provoking this situation, much like our own torturous desperations over Brexit ultimately whoevers fault it was is secondary to dealing with it, and Ireland looks like taking the biggest hit of any EU country. The EU woukd be wise to make sure the rest support Ireland a great deal.
It's good cop bad cop.
If, say, Germany pushes for a border then the UK has no option but to agree to anything that means there won't be a border. It is exquisitely clever.
We, or at least the sensible PBers have noted how the EU, Ireland, and the UK all don't want a border so it was crazy and illogical that anyone was suggesting it.
Now someone is suggesting it. It is a bluff we can't call.
Err. What?
If you know someone has a duff hand, you call it.
We cannot. Because we simply cannot take the chance that they actually mean it.
At the end of the day what does Germany know or care about the last 500 years of Irish history? Fuck all. Just like most PB Leavers on here.
Well didn't the IRA try to get hold of German arms during WW1?
I'd have thought that, in exchange for suspending article 50, the EU27 will demand a price that consists of precisely one thing: a new general election.
How does that benefit them more than not suspending? If the tories collapse, quite likely, then sure Corbyn would get in, but even if easier to deal with it won't be actually easy for them. And gods forbid we get another hung parliament. How would suspending be a pretext to call for a ge, from their perspective?
At the end of the day what does Germany know or care about the last 500 years of Irish history? Fuck all. Just like most PB Leavers on here.
Oh they mean it.
The EU is a rules-based organisation. Meaning, if the UK refused be compatible with the rules then it will have to be isolated outside them. That's how rules work.
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A lot more of this to come as EU Countries start fighting their own corners
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
The UK will either have to have a hard border with Ireland, or to have open borders with other WTO countries.
Though in such a hostile, hard Brexit enviroment, erecting such a border will just be par for the course. One of many hosile acts in such a divorce.
I'm perfectly content that the UK can have soft customs arrangements on all its land borders. ...
...
Penny dropped?
Take back control, by having zero control?
Good luck selling that on the doorsteps!
Just think about it for a minute.
I canvass all the time. It would be very easy to sell a soft Irish border with:
- no FOM - with no benefits paid to EU citizens - no ongoing payments to the EU - control of all our laws and regulations
Literally no one has ever suggested that we should have a hard border in Ireland; we've had the CTA with them for decades...
Anyone who can achieve those three will win the popular vote
I'd have thought that, in exchange for suspending article 50, the EU27 will demand a price that consists of precisely one thing: a new general election.
They have no power to intervene in that way. It would makes things worse, much worse
There's a little country called Greece that might want to discuss the difference between the EU's theoretical and actual powers.
Comments
My eldest son (51) has lost three of his friends to suicide.
It is so upsetting and leaves everyone devastated
Thinking of you and all your best friends family
Why anyone is surprised TM is unpopular is a surprise in itelf. She is caught between Brexiteers and Remainers while she is attempting to negotiate a deal that protects business but ensures we leave
I do wonder if she manages a deal just how remainer and leave mps will be able to vote it down and plunge the Country into even deeper despair
I do think the Country should recognise that at least she is holding on in there when most would just pass the batton over to someone else, who would be in the exact same invidious position
Admittedly though I'm not completely sure that Theresa May's brand of fudge won't work out. If it does, then I'll take it all back. But I'm getting less and less optimistic by the day.
The lion having reached his head
The miserable boy was dead
When nurse informed his parents they
Were more concerned than I can say
His mother as she dried her eyes
Said "It gives me no surprise
He would not do as he was told."
His father who was self-controlled
Bade all the children round attend
To James's miserable end.
And always keep ahold of nurse
For fear of finding something worse.
As others have said the problem with a challenge is that the alternative doesn’t look to be any better. Javid needs time to bed in as Home Sec (although it’s hard not to see things like the posturing today to be positioning for a leadership bid next year). Boris, Davis and Rudd are busted flushes. Rees-Mogg and Hammond won’t unite both wings of the party and would probably cause it to implode. Leadsom is still too inexperienced. Mordaunt hasn’t held a senior enough role yet. Davidson isn’t in Parliament. Hunt and Gove look ok on paper but both alienate large tracts of the voting public. Javid has to be the favourite, but I can’t think he’d want to move against May now. She is still likely to survive a no confidence vote.
This sounds expensive for Dublin. Could there end up being a border across the Bay of Biscay instead ?
https://amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-will-have-hardest-border-in-europe-if-uk-doesnt-reach-brexit-deal-ally-of-merkel-warns-37142875.html?__twitter_impression=true
Joachim Pfeiffer – a key ally of Chancellor Merkel – painted a dire picture of the outcome.
Mr Pfeiffer said Ireland would “have a border like we have a border with Ukraine, or Belarus” as there would no longer be treaties in place with the UK that would ensure the rules and standards of the EU would be respected.
Mr Pfeiffer said it will be Ireland’s responsibility to erect and manage the Border on the EU side, and the UK’s task to manage the territory of Northern Ireland.
A hard border in Ireland doesn't really impact the UK much economically.
ho hum.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/23/brexit-broke-parliament-people-fix-election-dilemma
In brief: a general election is unlikely to solve it because you can’t use a general election to obtain an incontrovertible mandate for any given policy so a referendum is the only option, but this time round it needs to bear less resemblance to something cobbled together by a mediocre and hungover undergraduate with three essays due within 24 hours. And possibly involve more than one referendum.
The irony is that the UK will not erect a border but Ireland will be forced too
I am really finding the Tory squirming quite interesting as it is completely unclear quite how it all ends. Vassal state Brexit is probably in pole position, but clown car crash Brexit is not far behind, with the possibility of A50 suspension or a #peoplevote trailing at some distance.
I have arranged my own affairs to cover all the above, so can spectate with interest.
May is not clinging on to power. She could be gone at any time and knows it. But those who have to wield the knife won't act, so she has to go through the motions.
Though in such a hostile, hard Brexit enviroment, erecting such a border will just be par for the course. One of many hosile acts in such a divorce.
The latest IMF report on the EZ countries put the 12 year impact of a WTO Brexit at ~2% less growth than Bremain for the Dutch, and around 4% for the bogtrotters. Of course, the graph will likely be hockey stick shaped, but they didn't include that in t'report.
If, say, Germany pushes for a border then the UK has no option but to agree to anything that means there won't be a border. It is exquisitely clever.
We, or at least the sensible PBers have noted how the EU, Ireland, and the UK all don't want a border so it was crazy and illogical that anyone was suggesting it.
Now someone is suggesting it. And it is a bluff we can't call.
If you know someone has a duff hand, you call it.
...
...
Penny dropped?
Good luck selling that on the doorsteps!
Telegraph readers brains just fall out of their arses.
At the end of the day what does Germany know or care about the last 500 years of Irish history? Fuck all. Just like most PB Leavers on here.
I canvass all the time. It would be very easy to sell a soft Irish border with:
- no FOM - with no benefits paid to EU citizens
- no ongoing payments to the EU
- control of all our laws and regulations
Literally no one has ever suggested that we should have a hard border in Ireland; we've had the CTA with them for decades...
The EU is a rules-based organisation. Meaning, if the UK refused be compatible with the rules then it will have to be isolated outside them. That's how rules work.
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