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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May sees a huge drop in her YouGov leader ratings in three mon

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  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751

    surby said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:


    But, oddly enough, no great change in voting intentions.

    There's been a definite drop in the Tory share. May's parliamentary majority* is slender enough as it is

    *(Tories + DUP)
    Adding the latest YouGov poll to the EMA makes Labour 0.4% ahead.

    Tories 35 short of a majority, losing 27 seats to Labour.

    Con 291
    Lab 281
    LD 16
    Green 1
    PC 3
    SNP 40
    NI 18

    I hope HYUFD does not see this. You will have a million questions to answer.
    Very questionable about how a stable government could be formed from those numbers
    No, that's an easy one: it couldn't.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394
    RobD said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    But will it actually happen?
    It will be worse.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    When the government issues the advisory note, Brexit support will drop 10%.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Poineers,

    Post-Brexit, It's the wardrobe monsters I fear the most.

    I remember the 'how to survive nuclear war" type posters in the 60s. The countdown advice poster in my local gave number nine as 'bend over and put your head between your legs" and number ten was "kiss your arse goodbye"

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    matt said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    If it came to that people like Rees-Mogg (and Corbyn who is absolutely colluding in it) deserve to suffer the fate of Mussolini and Petacci. There will be a queue and a remarkable number of people disowning their recent history.
    The British way would be to give JRM a peerage and condemn Corbyn to lecturing at a former polytechnic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    surby said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    When the government issues the advisory note, Brexit support will drop 10%.
    It probably won't. People's views are too entrenched.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    surby said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:


    But, oddly enough, no great change in voting intentions.

    There's been a definite drop in the Tory share. May's parliamentary majority* is slender enough as it is

    *(Tories + DUP)
    Adding the latest YouGov poll to the EMA makes Labour 0.4% ahead.

    Tories 35 short of a majority, losing 27 seats to Labour.

    Con 291
    Lab 281
    LD 16
    Green 1
    PC 3
    SNP 40
    NI 18

    I hope HYUFD does not see this. You will have a million questions to answer.
    Very questionable about how a stable government could be formed from those numbers
    A minority Labour government could be formed as long as it pursues policies which the LD, SNP, PC , Green will not object to.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Dutch foreign minister has made some very controversial remarks about multiculturalism:

    "Peaceful multicultural societies don't exist, Dutch FM says"

    https://nltimes.nl/2018/07/18/peaceful-multicultural-societies-dont-exist-dutch-fm-says

    "The Netherlands’ foreign minister has been criticised for saying he knew of no peaceful multicultural societies and calling Suriname, a former Dutch colony, a “failed state”.
    Stef Blok, a member of the ruling VVD centre-right party, made the comments about migration and multiculturalism at a closed-door meeting of international organisations in The Hague last week.
    “Give me an example of a multi-ethnic or a multicultural society, in which the original population still lives and where there is a peaceful cohabitation. I don’t know one,” Mr Blok said, according to a leaked recording of his address that was broadcast on Dutch television on Thursday."


    https://www.ft.com/content/2892637c-8aa5-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543

    Singapore? Although it's a bit draconian there.
    Well other than the gun crime and the fact that the "original" population has been somewhat outnumbered, I think the United States of America might disagree. With exception of a few tribes in the Amazon rainforest there are very few mono-ethnic cultures. A certain Mr. Hitler did try to achieve such a status, and this did not end peacefully. A bit more far right wing twattery - when will they learn?
    Iceland?
    Well yes. Ok...apart from Iceland
    On checking Wiki Iceland actually has a higher % of Poles in the population than the UK. With 93% inhabitants born in Iceland, it's probably more diverse than several areas in the UK that voted for Brexit.
    I'd imagine a similar split in Iceland. More diverse in the capital, less diverse in the rural areas.
    Speaking of Iceland, now Michael Gove et al has the prospect of "taking back control" of our fishing, can we look forward to "Cod War 2" . That'll be a good bit of red/white meat for your average Col Blimp to get cross and nationalistic about
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394
    matt said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    If it came to that people like Rees-Mogg (and Corbyn who is absolutely colluding in it) deserve to suffer the fate of Mussolini and Petacci. There will be a queue and a remarkable number of people disowning their recent history.
    A bit excessive, surely?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,306

    I'm looking forward to this film - 28 Days Later meets The Survivors.

    I feel that there should definitely be a Carry On element to the melange.
    Boris as Sid James?
    Yep.
    Charles Hawtrey for JRM & Babs Windsor for Ruth Davidson just to fuck with peoples' heads.
    Bernard Bresslaw for Grayling.
    Kenneth Williams as Nigel Farage and I'd 10/10 watch that film.
    I'd have cast Sid James as Farage - eerily similar grin - and Bernard Bresslaw as Boris, in an inspired piece of casting against type (apart from the essential imbecility).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,018

    I'm looking forward to this film - 28 Days Later meets The Survivors.

    I feel that there should definitely be a Carry On element to the melange.
    Boris as Sid James?
    Yep.
    Charles Hawtrey for JRM & Babs Windsor for Ruth Davidson just to fuck with peoples' heads.
    Bernard Bresslaw for Grayling.
    Kenneth Williams as Nigel Farage and I'd 10/10 watch that film.
    I seem to recall that Williams was an enthusiastic & vocal supporter of us staying in the EEC in the 70s, which would make this actors-raised-from-the-dead fantasy even better.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    I'm looking forward to this film - 28 Days Later meets The Survivors.

    I feel that there should definitely be a Carry On element to the melange.
    Boris as Sid James?
    Yep.
    Charles Hawtrey for JRM & Babs Windsor for Ruth Davidson just to fuck with peoples' heads.
    Bernard Bresslaw for Grayling.
    LOL , Ruth for Hattie Jacques you mean surely.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    If it came to that people like Rees-Mogg (and Corbyn who is absolutely colluding in it) deserve to suffer the fate of Mussolini and Petacci. There will be a queue and a remarkable number of people disowning their recent history.
    A bit excessive, surely?
    I agree. I think it is very unfair on Mussolini family to compare El Duce with someone as right wing as Rees-Mogg
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    CD13 said:

    Mr Poineers,

    Post-Brexit, It's the wardrobe monsters I fear the most.

    I remember the 'how to survive nuclear war" type posters in the 60s. The countdown advice poster in my local gave number nine as 'bend over and put your head between your legs" and number ten was "kiss your arse goodbye"

    The Russians don't need to threaten us with nukes anymore. They have Leave voters to help them achieve their objectives.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    RobD said:

    surby said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    When the government issues the advisory note, Brexit support will drop 10%.
    It probably won't. People's views are too entrenched.
    I think this will be crucial to how the next few months play out. Optimistic me thinks that there is a growing group who supported Brexit, still want to leave, but are having to face up to the complexity cost and duration of the process. A large proportion of this are in "sod it, let's just leave" mode, denying that complexity and cost. However it's the part of that group with growing doubts who might just be open-minded when these notices come out. We'll see!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    CD13 said:

    Mr Poineers,

    Post-Brexit, It's the wardrobe monsters I fear the most.

    I remember the 'how to survive nuclear war" type posters in the 60s. The countdown advice poster in my local gave number nine as 'bend over and put your head between your legs" and number ten was "kiss your arse goodbye"

    The Russians don't need to threaten us with nukes anymore. They have Leave voters to help them achieve their objectives.
    Ah yes, if it wasn't for those Russians, Remain would have surely won!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,906
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    But will it actually happen?
    It will be worse.
    It all depends on the imposition of physical border checks. All parties are absolutely clear that if this happens cross border trade effectively stops overnight. Trucks will be stuck in huge queues on either side of the border waiting to pass through, which means not only are they not delivering that specific load they are not collecting the next one.

    Its not just warehouses rapidly emptying of product whether its food or car components or whatever, its physically tying vehicles up in a queue, which puts significant pressure on the rest of UK logistics ability to move products intra UK assuming there is stock to move.

    Which is why the MEDIUM scenario by government had shortages outside core logistics routes inside a week. That would be with only a partial slowdown in cross border. If the EU impose a formal border, and Macron with a heavy heart sends his troops to set up checks at Calais etc then inside a week becomes inside a few days.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,815
    Mr. Divvie, with increasing use of CGI, that's not impossible (as Rogue One showed).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754

    CD13 said:

    Mr Poineers,

    Post-Brexit, It's the wardrobe monsters I fear the most.

    I remember the 'how to survive nuclear war" type posters in the 60s. The countdown advice poster in my local gave number nine as 'bend over and put your head between your legs" and number ten was "kiss your arse goodbye"

    The Russians don't need to threaten us with nukes anymore. They have Leave voters to help them achieve their objectives.
    It's a new variant on MAD: impose sanctions on us, and we'll rile up your nationalist elements until you put sanctions on yourself.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394

    CD13 said:

    Mr Poineers,

    Post-Brexit, It's the wardrobe monsters I fear the most.

    I remember the 'how to survive nuclear war" type posters in the 60s. The countdown advice poster in my local gave number nine as 'bend over and put your head between your legs" and number ten was "kiss your arse goodbye"

    The Russians don't need to threaten us with nukes anymore. They have Leave voters to help them achieve their objectives.
    I'm aiming to be Peoples' Commissar for Foreign Affairs.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,249
    AndyJS said:

    The Dutch foreign minister has made some very controversial remarks about multiculturalism:

    "Peaceful multicultural societies don't exist, Dutch FM says"

    https://nltimes.nl/2018/07/18/peaceful-multicultural-societies-dont-exist-dutch-fm-says

    "The Netherlands’ foreign minister has been criticised for saying he knew of no peaceful multicultural societies and calling Suriname, a former Dutch colony, a “failed state”.
    Stef Blok, a member of the ruling VVD centre-right party, made the comments about migration and multiculturalism at a closed-door meeting of international organisations in The Hague last week.
    “Give me an example of a multi-ethnic or a multicultural society, in which the original population still lives and where there is a peaceful cohabitation. I don’t know one,” Mr Blok said, according to a leaked recording of his address that was broadcast on Dutch television on Thursday."


    https://www.ft.com/content/2892637c-8aa5-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543

    Well, how far back do we go with original population?

    Aborigines in Australia? The waves of migration that swept through India?

    And how do you draw ethnic boundaries? Much of LatAm seems to deal reasonably well with populations that are a mix of Spanish, Ameroindian and African descended. Surely, as well, the fact that we no longer draw distinctions in the UK between Picts, Angles, Saxe, those of Norman heritage, etc., shows that a successful multi-ethnic country just ends up with a new ethnicity based upon the mingling of all the various strains over the years.

    Finally, on the multicultural, you could have said the same of Europe and the religious splits in the 1600s. Show me the successful country where Catholic and Protestant live side by side? (Or even Lutheran and Calvinist.)

    There's a good and important discussion to be had about these things. And it shouldn't be a taboo subject. But this particular speech seems to be pretty devoid of insight.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    surby said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    When the government issues the advisory note, Brexit support will drop 10%.
    Well, our new chickens are now established and laying well, and there's half an acre of garden we could turn over to food production, so we're not too badly set... that aside, it's going to be interesting to see quite how the extreme Brexit faction maintain a united front whilst insisting the Government treats no-deal as a real option for negotiating purposes, yet insist that any given adverse outcome of no-deal for which the Government makes preparations is scaremongering.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    I didn't know the Natural Law Party were active in the USA.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    tpfkar said:

    RobD said:

    surby said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    When the government issues the advisory note, Brexit support will drop 10%.
    It probably won't. People's views are too entrenched.
    I think this will be crucial to how the next few months play out. Optimistic me thinks that there is a growing group who supported Brexit, still want to leave, but are having to face up to the complexity cost and duration of the process. A large proportion of this are in "sod it, let's just leave" mode, denying that complexity and cost. However it's the part of that group with growing doubts who might just be open-minded when these notices come out. We'll see!
    But it's only going to get more difficult to leave after further integration. They might be right when they say this is the last chance to get out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    surby said:

    surby said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:


    But, oddly enough, no great change in voting intentions.

    There's been a definite drop in the Tory share. May's parliamentary majority* is slender enough as it is

    *(Tories + DUP)
    Adding the latest YouGov poll to the EMA makes Labour 0.4% ahead.

    Tories 35 short of a majority, losing 27 seats to Labour.

    Con 291
    Lab 281
    LD 16
    Green 1
    PC 3
    SNP 40
    NI 18

    I hope HYUFD does not see this. You will have a million questions to answer.
    Very questionable about how a stable government could be formed from those numbers
    A minority Labour government could be formed as long as it pursues policies which the LD, SNP, PC , Green will not object to.
    That's why he included 'stable'. It's plenty chaotic now, and despite the dreams of those who think a progressive alliance exists, as though anti tory ism is the only thing of consequence, managing that lot would be far from easy.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    RobD said:

    surby said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    When the government issues the advisory note, Brexit support will drop 10%.
    It probably won't. People's views are too entrenched.
    On that we will agree. Leavers will blame us non-believers/blasphemers for failing to deliver Utopia. Our lack of acquiescence to the true faith hindered the disgraced ex-GP from delivering a GREAT trade deal with His Most EXCELLENT Tweetness President Donald 1st.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Probably cock-up rather than conspiracy, but this is gorgeous:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1021389572129853440

    As is that letter from Mrs H's lawyers. Labour had better get some good legal advice and stop digging .......
    There were a couple of odd points in the letter, the first being it was signed Mishcon de Reya LLP rather than by a person: is this normal legal practice? And after spending a page on how it was impossible to tell which rule 2.1.8 was meant, it was a bit anti-climactic when the next point assumed they meant the Labour Party's rule 2.1.8, rather than, for instance, the International Dance Teachers' Association's rule 2.1.8.
    Own name to client, Firm name to the other side.
    Also worth noting that the Deputy Chairman of Mishcon de Reya, Anthony Julius, wrote a well-regarded book on anti-semitism: "Trials of the Diaspora: A History of Anti-Semitism in England".
    He also represented Deborah Lipstadt in her case against that well known holocaust denier David Irving.
    There is such a wealth of material out there about the anti-semitic circles and people Corbyn has associated with over the years. This could very easily end up, if Labour are not careful, like one of those pyrrhic libel victories where the winner gets 1p in damages but has their character ruined.
    Moseley spanked the papers for more than £1, I thought?
    I was thinking of the Dering case from the early 1960's. Won on a technicality about his work at Auschwitz. Lost his character.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    RobD said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Poineers,

    Post-Brexit, It's the wardrobe monsters I fear the most.

    I remember the 'how to survive nuclear war" type posters in the 60s. The countdown advice poster in my local gave number nine as 'bend over and put your head between your legs" and number ten was "kiss your arse goodbye"

    The Russians don't need to threaten us with nukes anymore. They have Leave voters to help them achieve their objectives.
    Ah yes, if it wasn't for those Russians, Remain would have surely won!
    Who knows, but we do know that Vladimir was very pleased with your vote. Congratulations comrade
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,815
    Mr. Polruan, reminds me of the ever so slightly dark joke:

    Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a night.
    Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    RobD said:

    tpfkar said:

    RobD said:

    surby said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    When the government issues the advisory note, Brexit support will drop 10%.
    It probably won't. People's views are too entrenched.
    I think this will be crucial to how the next few months play out. Optimistic me thinks that there is a growing group who supported Brexit, still want to leave, but are having to face up to the complexity cost and duration of the process. A large proportion of this are in "sod it, let's just leave" mode, denying that complexity and cost. However it's the part of that group with growing doubts who might just be open-minded when these notices come out. We'll see!
    But it's only going to get more difficult to leave after further integration. They might be right when they say this is the last chance to get out.
    If in 50 years or 100 years or whenever, the members of the EU collectively decide that it no longer serves a purpose in the world of the future, then "we" can "get out". Until then, there is no point in getting out given that we want and need what we get from EU membership.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Sean_F said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Poineers,

    Post-Brexit, It's the wardrobe monsters I fear the most.

    I remember the 'how to survive nuclear war" type posters in the 60s. The countdown advice poster in my local gave number nine as 'bend over and put your head between your legs" and number ten was "kiss your arse goodbye"

    The Russians don't need to threaten us with nukes anymore. They have Leave voters to help them achieve their objectives.
    I'm aiming to be Peoples' Commissar for Foreign Affairs.
    I think Nigel Farage has his eye on that title, along with a few others.
  • Polruan said:
    These 2 are monsters. Would be cheaper if their captors pit them in a car and parked it in a field. I'm sure someone could then drop something on it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    tpfkar said:

    RobD said:

    surby said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    When the government issues the advisory note, Brexit support will drop 10%.
    It probably won't. People's views are too entrenched.
    I think this will be crucial to how the next few months play out. Optimistic me thinks that there is a growing group who supported Brexit, still want to leave, but are having to face up to the complexity cost and duration of the process. A large proportion of this are in "sod it, let's just leave" mode, denying that complexity and cost. However it's the part of that group with growing doubts who might just be open-minded when these notices come out. We'll see!
    But it's only going to get more difficult to leave after further integration. They might be right when they say this is the last chance to get out.
    If in 50 years or 100 years or whenever, the members of the EU collectively decide that it no longer serves a purpose in the world of the future, then "we" can "get out". Until then, there is no point in getting out given that we want and need what we get from EU membership.
    So much for always being sovereign.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr D,

    They might be right when they say this is the last chance to get out."

    It's a last desperate throw of the dice. "We're all doomed, Mr Mainwaring, we're can't leave even if we wanted to, we left it too late. Resign yourself to your fate."

    I'm not sure that's a winning strategy.




  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    CD13 said:

    Mr Poineers,

    Post-Brexit, It's the wardrobe monsters I fear the most.

    I remember the 'how to survive nuclear war" type posters in the 60s. The countdown advice poster in my local gave number nine as 'bend over and put your head between your legs" and number ten was "kiss your arse goodbye"

    The Russians don't need to threaten us with nukes anymore. They have Leave voters to help them achieve their objectives.
    It's a new variant on MAD: impose sanctions on us, and we'll rile up your nationalist elements until you put sanctions on yourself.
    Mutually Assured Self Harm, or MASH. If I decide to damage my international reputation, you will not make it worse, or I will make sure you do something that makes you look even more silly
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    CD13 said:

    Mr D,

    They might be right when they say this is the last chance to get out."

    It's a last desperate throw of the dice. "We're all doomed, Mr Mainwaring, we're can't leave even if we wanted to, we left it too late. Resign yourself to your fate."

    I'm not sure that's a winning strategy.




    Maybe, but I don't think saying that it's too difficult to leave will make leavers switch to remain.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Probably cock-up rather than conspiracy, but this is gorgeous:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1021389572129853440

    As is that letter from Mrs H's lawyers. Labour had better get some good legal advice and stop digging .......
    There were a couple of odd points in the letter, the first being it was signed Mishcon de Reya LLP rather than by a person: is this normal legal practice? And after spending a page on how it was impossible to tell which rule 2.1.8 was meant, it was a bit anti-climactic when the next point assumed they meant the Labour Party's rule 2.1.8, rather than, for instance, the International Dance Teachers' Association's rule 2.1.8.
    Own name to client, Firm name to the other side.
    Also worth noting that the Deputy Chairman of Mishcon de Reya, Anthony Julius, wrote a well-regarded book on anti-semitism: "Trials of the Diaspora: A History of Anti-Semitism in England".
    He also represented Deborah Lipstadt in her case against that well known holocaust denier David Irving.
    There is such a wealth of material out there about the anti-semitic circles and people Corbyn has associated with over the years. This could very easily end up, if Labour are not careful, like one of those pyrrhic libel victories where the winner gets 1p in damages but has their character ruined.
    Moseley spanked the papers for more than £1, I thought?
    I was thinking of the Dering case from the early 1960's. Won on a technicality about his work at Auschwitz. Lost his character.

    Wasn't there a Philip Roth novel about this ?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    But will it actually happen?
    It will be worse.
    It all depends on the imposition of physical border checks. All parties are absolutely clear that if this happens cross border trade effectively stops overnight. Trucks will be stuck in huge queues on either side of the border waiting to pass through, which means not only are they not delivering that specific load they are not collecting the next one.

    Its not just warehouses rapidly emptying of product whether its food or car components or whatever, its physically tying vehicles up in a queue, which puts significant pressure on the rest of UK logistics ability to move products intra UK assuming there is stock to move.

    Which is why the MEDIUM scenario by government had shortages outside core logistics routes inside a week. That would be with only a partial slowdown in cross border. If the EU impose a formal border, and Macron with a heavy heart sends his troops to set up checks at Calais etc then inside a week becomes inside a few days.
    In 2015 as retaliation for EU sanctions Putin banned imports of food from the EU. Not only the EU though also USA, Canada, Australia and Norway (fish).
    Did the supermarkets run out of food?
    Did the Russians riot because they were starving?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,306

    I'm looking forward to this film - 28 Days Later meets The Survivors.

    I feel that there should definitely be a Carry On element to the melange.
    Boris as Sid James?
    Yep.
    Charles Hawtrey for JRM & Babs Windsor for Ruth Davidson just to fuck with peoples' heads.
    Bernard Bresslaw for Grayling.
    Kenneth Williams as Nigel Farage and I'd 10/10 watch that film.
    I seem to recall that Williams was an enthusiastic & vocal supporter of us staying in the EEC in the 70s, which would make this actors-raised-from-the-dead fantasy even better.
    And who can forget "InfaMay, infaMay, they've all got it in for May !" ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tpfkar said:

    RobD said:

    surby said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    When the government issues the advisory note, Brexit support will drop 10%.
    It probably won't. People's views are too entrenched.
    I think this will be crucial to how the next few months play out. Optimistic me thinks that there is a growing group who supported Brexit, still want to leave, but are having to face up to the complexity cost and duration of the process. A large proportion of this are in "sod it, let's just leave" mode, denying that complexity and cost. However it's the part of that group with growing doubts who might just be open-minded when these notices come out. We'll see!
    But it's only going to get more difficult to leave after further integration. They might be right when they say this is the last chance to get out.
    If in 50 years or 100 years or whenever, the members of the EU collectively decide that it no longer serves a purpose in the world of the future, then "we" can "get out". Until then, there is no point in getting out given that we want and need what we get from EU membership.
    So much for always being sovereign.
    Sovereign does not mean independent. Sovereignty has been pooled, not given away.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,815
    Mr. Glenn, ha.

    I suppose Gaul pooled its sovereignty with Rome.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Many years ago, I was at a European meeting in London and they served Scottish beef. As this was during the height of the BSE scare, the French lady next to me sat back in her chair and looked worried. "Is this safe?" she asked.

    "Who knows?" I said. "The question is, do you feel lucky?"

    She passed on the meat. Scaredy-cats the lot of 'em - the Remainers and the French and somewhat ironic as their cattle were worse. And I'm becoming worried that some Remainers are finally developing the spongiform infection.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Some folks will twist themselves into any uncomfortable position in pursuit of votes.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    surby said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Probably cock-up rather than conspiracy, but this is gorgeous:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1021389572129853440

    As is that letter from Mrs H's lawyers. Labour had better get some good legal advice and stop digging .......
    There were a couple of odd points in the letter, the first being it was signed Mishcon de Reya LLP rather than by a person: is this normal legal practice? And after spending a page on how it was impossible to tell which rule 2.1.8 was meant, it was a bit anti-climactic when the next point assumed they meant the Labour Party's rule 2.1.8, rather than, for instance, the International Dance Teachers' Association's rule 2.1.8.
    Own name to client, Firm name to the other side.
    Also worth noting that the Deputy Chairman of Mishcon de Reya, Anthony Julius, wrote a well-regarded book on anti-semitism: "Trials of the Diaspora: A History of Anti-Semitism in England".
    He also represented Deborah Lipstadt in her case against that well known holocaust denier David Irving.
    There is such a wealth of material out there about the anti-semitic circles and people Corbyn has associated with over the years. This could very easily end up, if Labour are not careful, like one of those pyrrhic libel victories where the winner gets 1p in damages but has their character ruined.
    Moseley spanked the papers for more than £1, I thought?
    I was thinking of the Dering case from the early 1960's. Won on a technicality about his work at Auschwitz. Lost his character.

    Wasn't there a Philip Roth novel about this ?
    Possibly. I've never read any Philip Roth, I'm afraid.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    I'm looking forward to this film - 28 Days Later meets The Survivors.

    I feel that there should definitely be a Carry On element to the melange.
    Boris as Sid James?
    Yep.
    Charles Hawtrey for JRM & Babs Windsor for Ruth Davidson just to fuck with peoples' heads.
    Bernard Bresslaw for Grayling.
    Kenneth Williams as Nigel Farage and I'd 10/10 watch that film.
    I seem to recall that Williams was an enthusiastic & vocal supporter of us staying in the EEC in the 70s, which would make this actors-raised-from-the-dead fantasy even better.
    Shirley Williams ? !!!!!!!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    surby said:

    I'm looking forward to this film - 28 Days Later meets The Survivors.

    I feel that there should definitely be a Carry On element to the melange.
    Boris as Sid James?
    Yep.
    Charles Hawtrey for JRM & Babs Windsor for Ruth Davidson just to fuck with peoples' heads.
    Bernard Bresslaw for Grayling.
    Kenneth Williams as Nigel Farage and I'd 10/10 watch that film.
    I seem to recall that Williams was an enthusiastic & vocal supporter of us staying in the EEC in the 70s, which would make this actors-raised-from-the-dead fantasy even better.
    Shirley Williams ? !!!!!!!!
    Kenneth, surely?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Mr. Glenn, ha.

    I suppose Gaul pooled its sovereignty with Rome.

    Where do the events of 1707 fit on this spectrum?

    ps thanks for remember of that cheerfully effective joke. Summarises the inbuilt assumption that "rest of life" is a constant not a variable nicely.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Dutch foreign minister has made some very controversial remarks about multiculturalism:

    "Peaceful multicultural societies don't exist, Dutch FM says"

    https://nltimes.nl/2018/07/18/peaceful-multicultural-societies-dont-exist-dutch-fm-says

    "The Netherlands’ foreign minister has been criticised for saying he knew of no peaceful multicultural societies and calling Suriname, a former Dutch colony, a “failed state”.
    Stef Blok, a member of the ruling VVD centre-right party, made the comments about migration and multiculturalism at a closed-door meeting of international organisations in The Hague last week.
    “Give me an example of a multi-ethnic or a multicultural society, in which the original population still lives and where there is a peaceful cohabitation. I don’t know one,” Mr Blok said, according to a leaked recording of his address that was broadcast on Dutch television on Thursday."


    https://www.ft.com/content/2892637c-8aa5-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543

    Well, how far back do we go with original population?

    Aborigines in Australia? The waves of migration that swept through India?

    And how do you draw ethnic boundaries? Much of LatAm seems to deal reasonably well with populations that are a mix of Spanish, Ameroindian and African descended. Surely, as well, the fact that we no longer draw distinctions in the UK between Picts, Angles, Saxe, those of Norman heritage, etc., shows that a successful multi-ethnic country just ends up with a new ethnicity based upon the mingling of all the various strains over the years.

    Finally, on the multicultural, you could have said the same of Europe and the religious splits in the 1600s. Show me the successful country where Catholic and Protestant live side by side? (Or even Lutheran and Calvinist.)

    There's a good and important discussion to be had about these things. And it shouldn't be a taboo subject. But this particular speech seems to be pretty devoid of insight.
    Indeed. The Netherlands itself still has profound Catholic /Protestant splits.
    They have parallel football league systems below Championship level.. Catholic leagues play Sunday, Protestant on Saturday, being a trivial example.
    But could you imagine if that were suggested here?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,306
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Dutch foreign minister has made some very controversial remarks about multiculturalism:

    "Peaceful multicultural societies don't exist, Dutch FM says"

    https://nltimes.nl/2018/07/18/peaceful-multicultural-societies-dont-exist-dutch-fm-says

    "The Netherlands’ foreign minister has been criticised for saying he knew of no peaceful multicultural societies and calling Suriname, a former Dutch colony, a “failed state”.
    Stef Blok, a member of the ruling VVD centre-right party, made the comments about migration and multiculturalism at a closed-door meeting of international organisations in The Hague last week.
    “Give me an example of a multi-ethnic or a multicultural society, in which the original population still lives and where there is a peaceful cohabitation. I don’t know one,” Mr Blok said, according to a leaked recording of his address that was broadcast on Dutch television on Thursday."


    https://www.ft.com/content/2892637c-8aa5-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543

    Well, how far back do we go with original population?

    Aborigines in Australia? The waves of migration that swept through India?

    And how do you draw ethnic boundaries? Much of LatAm seems to deal reasonably well with populations that are a mix of Spanish, Ameroindian and African descended. Surely, as well, the fact that we no longer draw distinctions in the UK between Picts, Angles, Saxe, those of Norman heritage, etc., shows that a successful multi-ethnic country just ends up with a new ethnicity based upon the mingling of all the various strains over the years.

    Finally, on the multicultural, you could have said the same of Europe and the religious splits in the 1600s. Show me the successful country where Catholic and Protestant live side by side? (Or even Lutheran and Calvinist.)
    ....
    South Korea.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    surby said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Probably cock-up rather than conspiracy, but this is gorgeous:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1021389572129853440

    As is that letter from Mrs H's lawyers. Labour had better get some good legal advice and stop digging .......
    There were a couple of odd points in the letter, the first being it was signed Mishcon de Reya LLP rather than by a person: is this normal legal practice? And after spending a page on how it was impossible to tell which rule 2.1.8 was meant, it was a bit anti-climactic when the next point assumed they meant the Labour Party's rule 2.1.8, rather than, for instance, the International Dance Teachers' Association's rule 2.1.8.
    Own name to client, Firm name to the other side.
    Also worth noting that the Deputy Chairman of Mishcon de Reya, Anthony Julius, wrote a well-regarded book on anti-semitism: "Trials of the Diaspora: A History of Anti-Semitism in England".
    He also represented Deborah Lipstadt in her case against that well known holocaust denier David Irving.
    There is such a wealth of material out there about the anti-semitic circles and people Corbyn has associated with over the years. This could very easily end up, if Labour are not careful, like one of those pyrrhic libel victories where the winner gets 1p in damages but has their character ruined.
    Moseley spanked the papers for more than £1, I thought?
    I was thinking of the Dering case from the early 1960's. Won on a technicality about his work at Auschwitz. Lost his character.

    Wasn't there a Philip Roth novel about this ?
    Yes, it was the same one except Leon Uris was the author. Almost 45 years play tricks with your mind. I remember I found it absolutely gripping.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QB_VII
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Dutch foreign minister has made some very controversial remarks about multiculturalism:

    "Peaceful multicultural societies don't exist, Dutch FM says"

    https://nltimes.nl/2018/07/18/peaceful-multicultural-societies-dont-exist-dutch-fm-says

    "The Netherlands’ foreign minister has been criticised for saying he knew of no peaceful multicultural societies and calling Suriname, a former Dutch colony, a “failed state”.
    Stef Blok, a member of the ruling VVD centre-right party, made the comments about migration and multiculturalism at a closed-door meeting of international organisations in The Hague last week.
    “Give me an example of a multi-ethnic or a multicultural society, in which the original population still lives and where there is a peaceful cohabitation. I don’t know one,” Mr Blok said, according to a leaked recording of his address that was broadcast on Dutch television on Thursday."


    https://www.ft.com/content/2892637c-8aa5-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543

    Singapore? Although it's a bit draconian there.
    Well other than the gun crime and the fact that the "original" population has been somewhat outnumbered, I think the United States of America might disagree. With exception of a few tribes in the Amazon rainforest there are very few mono-ethnic cultures. A certain Mr. Hitler did try to achieve such a status, and this did not end peacefully. A bit more far right wing twattery - when will they learn?
    Iceland?
    Well yes. Ok...apart from Iceland
    On checking Wiki Iceland actually has a higher % of Poles in the population than the UK. With 93% inhabitants born in Iceland, it's probably more diverse than several areas in the UK that voted for Brexit.
    Or to put it another way there are around 100 times as many Poles living in the UK as in Iceland although the UK has only 2.4 times the land area of Iceland.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    willianglenn: “Sovereign does not mean independent. Sovereignty has been pooled, not given away.”

    The sovereignty argument was not adequately dealt with during the referendum. The amount of Leave voters who say it is about sovereignty, but don't seem to have the first concept of what sovereignty means.

    Scotland is not sovereign. This is why it cannot have an independence referendum that is binding without checking with (sovereign) Westminster. Scotland cannot declare war. Scotland cannot have a seat at the UN.

    The UK is only bound by the rules of EU because it chooses to do so as a sovereign country. If it does not wish to, as with any of of the other sovereign states, it may leave. If UK was not sovereign as liars such as Farage would have us believe, we would have needed permission from Brussels to defend Falklands, to go to war in Iraq, Afghanistan. We would perhaps have to accept a system of PR, drive on the right, have speed limits in KMH and accept Napoleonic law principles.

    Now, I know all the swivel-eyed are going to say that all these things were going to happen, along with the succession of Turkey, but this is all BS. The reality is that without us integration will accelerate, and when we inevitably go back in, in approximately 50 years we will probably have to accept the single currency and numerous other things that we would not have had to had we stayed in. Self harm, nothing else!
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    surby said:

    I'm looking forward to this film - 28 Days Later meets The Survivors.

    I feel that there should definitely be a Carry On element to the melange.
    Boris as Sid James?
    Yep.
    Charles Hawtrey for JRM & Babs Windsor for Ruth Davidson just to fuck with peoples' heads.
    Bernard Bresslaw for Grayling.
    Kenneth Williams as Nigel Farage and I'd 10/10 watch that film.
    I seem to recall that Williams was an enthusiastic & vocal supporter of us staying in the EEC in the 70s, which would make this actors-raised-from-the-dead fantasy even better.
    Shirley Williams ? !!!!!!!!
    Kenneth, surely?
    It was a (un)funny joke !!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited July 2018
    Mr Polruan,

    1707 seems an interesting comparison. The rich Scots having lost a fortune needed a friendly shelter. The poor Scots didn't deserve a say. It's a good job they didn't get one. Democracy? Pah!

    Edit: I'm no historian but I'm sure the Scots will enlighten me if I'm wrong.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    Forget Brexit, Chris Grayling is going to cost the Tories the next election all on his own.

    https://twitter.com/christinetalbot/status/1021418828843167751
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    willianglenn: “Sovereign does not mean independent. Sovereignty has been pooled, not given away.”

    The sovereignty argument was not adequately dealt with during the referendum. The amount of Leave voters who say it is about sovereignty, but don't seem to have the first concept of what sovereignty means.

    Scotland is not sovereign. This is why it cannot have an independence referendum that is binding without checking with (sovereign) Westminster. Scotland cannot declare war. Scotland cannot have a seat at the UN.

    The UK is only bound by the rules of EU because it chooses to do so as a sovereign country. If it does not wish to, as with any of of the other sovereign states, it may leave. If UK was not sovereign as liars such as Farage would have us believe, we would have needed permission from Brussels to defend Falklands, to go to war in Iraq, Afghanistan. We would perhaps have to accept a system of PR, drive on the right, have speed limits in KMH and accept Napoleonic law principles.

    Now, I know all the swivel-eyed are going to say that all these things were going to happen, along with the succession of Turkey, but this is all BS. The reality is that without us integration will accelerate, and when we inevitably go back in, in approximately 50 years we will probably have to accept the single currency and numerous other things that we would not have had to had we stayed in. Self harm, nothing else!

    If the EU does eventually become a federal state, I can't imagine them accepting one region not having the same currency or not being in the Schengen zone. We'd have had to accept those regardless.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    surby said:

    surby said:

    I'm looking forward to this film - 28 Days Later meets The Survivors.

    I feel that there should definitely be a Carry On element to the melange.
    Boris as Sid James?
    Yep.
    Charles Hawtrey for JRM & Babs Windsor for Ruth Davidson just to fuck with peoples' heads.
    Bernard Bresslaw for Grayling.
    Kenneth Williams as Nigel Farage and I'd 10/10 watch that film.
    I seem to recall that Williams was an enthusiastic & vocal supporter of us staying in the EEC in the 70s, which would make this actors-raised-from-the-dead fantasy even better.
    Shirley Williams ? !!!!!!!!
    Kenneth, surely?
    It was a (un)funny joke !!
    I was trying to make an (un)funny riposte. Shirley -> surely... :)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    RobD said:

    willianglenn: “Sovereign does not mean independent. Sovereignty has been pooled, not given away.”

    The sovereignty argument was not adequately dealt with during the referendum. The amount of Leave voters who say it is about sovereignty, but don't seem to have the first concept of what sovereignty means.

    Scotland is not sovereign. This is why it cannot have an independence referendum that is binding without checking with (sovereign) Westminster. Scotland cannot declare war. Scotland cannot have a seat at the UN.

    The UK is only bound by the rules of EU because it chooses to do so as a sovereign country. If it does not wish to, as with any of of the other sovereign states, it may leave. If UK was not sovereign as liars such as Farage would have us believe, we would have needed permission from Brussels to defend Falklands, to go to war in Iraq, Afghanistan. We would perhaps have to accept a system of PR, drive on the right, have speed limits in KMH and accept Napoleonic law principles.

    Now, I know all the swivel-eyed are going to say that all these things were going to happen, along with the succession of Turkey, but this is all BS. The reality is that without us integration will accelerate, and when we inevitably go back in, in approximately 50 years we will probably have to accept the single currency and numerous other things that we would not have had to had we stayed in. Self harm, nothing else!

    If the EU does eventually become a federal state, I can't imagine them accepting one region not having the same currency or not being in the Schengen zone. We'd have had to accept those regardless.
    Talk about crossing bridges before you come to them!!!!!!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,815
    Mr. Eagles, Grayling's a bloody idiot.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    willianglenn: “Sovereign does not mean independent. Sovereignty has been pooled, not given away.”

    The sovereignty argument was not adequately dealt with during the referendum. The amount of Leave voters who say it is about sovereignty, but don't seem to have the first concept of what sovereignty means.

    Scotland is not sovereign. This is why it cannot have an independence referendum that is binding without checking with (sovereign) Westminster. Scotland cannot declare war. Scotland cannot have a seat at the UN.

    The UK is only bound by the rules of EU because it chooses to do so as a sovereign country. If it does not wish to, as with any of of the other sovereign states, it may leave. If UK was not sovereign as liars such as Farage would have us believe, we would have needed permission from Brussels to defend Falklands, to go to war in Iraq, Afghanistan. We would perhaps have to accept a system of PR, drive on the right, have speed limits in KMH and accept Napoleonic law principles.

    Now, I know all the swivel-eyed are going to say that all these things were going to happen, along with the succession of Turkey, but this is all BS. The reality is that without us integration will accelerate, and when we inevitably go back in, in approximately 50 years we will probably have to accept the single currency and numerous other things that we would not have had to had we stayed in. Self harm, nothing else!

    If the EU does eventually become a federal state, I can't imagine them accepting one region not having the same currency or not being in the Schengen zone. We'd have had to accept those regardless.
    Talk about crossing bridges before you come to them!!!!!!!
    It's the ultimate destination of the EU. We wouldn't have been able to retain those opt-outs all the way to the end.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Dutch foreign minister has made some very controversial remarks about multiculturalism:

    "Peaceful multicultural societies don't exist, Dutch FM says"

    https://nltimes.nl/2018/07/18/peaceful-multicultural-societies-dont-exist-dutch-fm-says

    "The Netherlands’ foreign minister has been criticised for saying he knew of no peaceful multicultural societies and calling Suriname, a former Dutch colony, a “failed state”.
    Stef Blok, a member of the ruling VVD centre-right party, made the comments about migration and multiculturalism at a closed-door meeting of international organisations in The Hague last week.
    “Give me an example of a multi-ethnic or a multicultural society, in which the original population still lives and where there is a peaceful cohabitation. I don’t know one,” Mr Blok said, according to a leaked recording of his address that was broadcast on Dutch television on Thursday."


    https://www.ft.com/content/2892637c-8aa5-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543

    Singapore? Although it's a bit draconian there.
    Well other than the gun crime and the fact that the "original" population has been somewhat outnumbered, I think the United States of America might disagree. With exception of a few tribes in the Amazon rainforest there are very few mono-ethnic cultures. A certain Mr. Hitler did try to achieve such a status, and this did not end peacefully. A bit more far right wing twattery - when will they learn?
    Iceland?
    Well yes. Ok...apart from Iceland
    On checking Wiki Iceland actually has a higher % of Poles in the population than the UK. With 93% inhabitants born in Iceland, it's probably more diverse than several areas in the UK that voted for Brexit.
    I'd imagine a similar split in Iceland. More diverse in the capital, less diverse in the rural areas.
    Speaking of Iceland, now Michael Gove et al has the prospect of "taking back control" of our fishing, can we look forward to "Cod War 2" . That'll be a good bit of red/white meat for your average Col Blimp to get cross and nationalistic about
    Does France have any cod?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,815
    King Cole, perhaps, on the other hand, if you're in a train steaming towards a cliff you need to slam the brakes on rather than wait until you reach the end of the track.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Dutch foreign minister has made some very controversial remarks about multiculturalism:

    "Peaceful multicultural societies don't exist, Dutch FM says"

    https://nltimes.nl/2018/07/18/peaceful-multicultural-societies-dont-exist-dutch-fm-says

    "The Netherlands’ foreign minister has been criticised for saying he knew of no peaceful multicultural societies and calling Suriname, a former Dutch colony, a “failed state”.
    Stef Blok, a member of the ruling VVD centre-right party, made the comments about migration and multiculturalism at a closed-door meeting of international organisations in The Hague last week.
    “Give me an example of a multi-ethnic or a multicultural society, in which the original population still lives and where there is a peaceful cohabitation. I don’t know one,” Mr Blok said, according to a leaked recording of his address that was broadcast on Dutch television on Thursday."


    https://www.ft.com/content/2892637c-8aa5-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543

    Well, how far back do we go with original population?

    Aborigines in Australia? The waves of migration that swept through India?

    And how do you draw ethnic boundaries? Much of LatAm seems to deal reasonably well with populations that are a mix of Spanish, Ameroindian and African descended. Surely, as well, the fact that we no longer draw distinctions in the UK between Picts, Angles, Saxe, those of Norman heritage, etc., shows that a successful multi-ethnic country just ends up with a new ethnicity based upon the mingling of all the various strains over the years.

    Finally, on the multicultural, you could have said the same of Europe and the religious splits in the 1600s. Show me the successful country where Catholic and Protestant live side by side? (Or even Lutheran and Calvinist.)

    There's a good and important discussion to be had about these things. And it shouldn't be a taboo subject. But this particular speech seems to be pretty devoid of insight.
    Indeed. The Netherlands itself still has profound Catholic /Protestant splits.
    They have parallel football league systems below Championship level.. Catholic leagues play Sunday, Protestant on Saturday, being a trivial example.
    But could you imagine if that were suggested here?
    Dont give Mrs Foster ideas! Mind, try being a Prod and fancying playing one of the Gaeilc games.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Grayling out of his depth in a teardrop.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    RobD said:

    willianglenn: “Sovereign does not mean independent. Sovereignty has been pooled, not given away.”

    The sovereignty argument was not adequately dealt with during the referendum. The amount of Leave voters who say it is about sovereignty, but don't seem to have the first concept of what sovereignty means.

    Scotland is not sovereign. This is why it cannot have an independence referendum that is binding without checking with (sovereign) Westminster. Scotland cannot declare war. Scotland cannot have a seat at the UN.

    The UK is only bound by the rules of EU because it chooses to do so as a sovereign country. If it does not wish to, as with any of of the other sovereign states, it may leave. If UK was not sovereign as liars such as Farage would have us believe, we would have needed permission from Brussels to defend Falklands, to go to war in Iraq, Afghanistan. We would perhaps have to accept a system of PR, drive on the right, have speed limits in KMH and accept Napoleonic law principles.

    Now, I know all the swivel-eyed are going to say that all these things were going to happen, along with the succession of Turkey, but this is all BS. The reality is that without us integration will accelerate, and when we inevitably go back in, in approximately 50 years we will probably have to accept the single currency and numerous other things that we would not have had to had we stayed in. Self harm, nothing else!

    If the EU does eventually become a federal state, I can't imagine them accepting one region not having the same currency or not being in the Schengen zone. We'd have had to accept those regardless.
    But they haven't demanded this. So your premise is based on that very powerful small word "if". I recall a German friend of mine who is very pro-British saying to me something along the lines that the problem the British have is that they think the EU commission is much more powerful than it is. Even "if" this was the desire of many Brussels bureaucrats, the ability to implement in the face of the other structures and practical difficulties would be very small. And even if it were proposed, and attempted to be implemented, that would be the time to use our sovereign right to say no and if necessary withdraw. The crazy thing about withdrawing now is that it serves no rational purpose.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    King Cole, perhaps, on the other hand, if you're in a train steaming towards a cliff you need to slam the brakes on rather than wait until you reach the end of the track.

    I suspect the real chances of federation went with Mrs T's support for including the East Europeans.

    Sadly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701

    Mr. Eagles, Grayling's a bloody idiot.

    Yah, he voted Leave.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Forget Brexit, Chris Grayling is going to cost the Tories the next election all on his own.

    https://twitter.com/christinetalbot/status/1021418828843167751

    Another high quality Brexiteer
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    surby said:

    I was talking about the risk to the food supply chain last year - was told I was being hysterical. And yet here we are with the government preparing to issue Protect and Survive 2018 to tell concerned households to stock 14 days of food and medicines in case the worst happens.

    "We've only got 3 days of fresh food supply outside of supermarkets. There'll be trollies thrown through supermarket windows at the end of the first week" is what a senior industry analyst told me. And hey presto, turns out the industry experts are, well, experts after all and not the rent-a-shit morons leading the leave campaign

    When the government issues the advisory note, Brexit support will drop 10%.
    The referendum is over. We’re in the implementation phase now.

    And remind me how all those other Remainer touchstones have gone down with the electorate? Wasn’t Obama meant to move the dial; and the Brexit Budget, and James Chapman’s Twitter feed, and Lancaster House?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    willianglenn: “Sovereign does not mean independent. Sovereignty has been pooled, not given away.”

    The sovereignty argument was not adequately dealt with during the referendum. The amount of Leave voters who say it is about sovereignty, but don't seem to have the first concept of what sovereignty means.

    Scotland is not sovereign. This is why it cannot have an independence referendum that is binding without checking with (sovereign) Westminster. Scotland cannot declare war. Scotland cannot have a seat at the UN.

    The UK is only bound by the rules of EU because it chooses to do so as a sovereign country. If it does not wish to, as with any of of the other sovereign states, it may leave. If UK was not sovereign as liars such as Farage would have us believe, we would have needed permission from Brussels to defend Falklands, to go to war in Iraq, Afghanistan. We would perhaps have to accept a system of PR, drive on the right, have speed limits in KMH and accept Napoleonic law principles.

    Now, I know all the swivel-eyed are going to say that all these things were going to happen, along with the succession of Turkey, but this is all BS. The reality is that without us integration will accelerate, and when we inevitably go back in, in approximately 50 years we will probably have to accept the single currency and numerous other things that we would not have had to had we stayed in. Self harm, nothing else!

    If the EU does eventually become a federal state, I can't imagine them accepting one region not having the same currency or not being in the Schengen zone. We'd have had to accept those regardless.
    But they haven't demanded this. So your premise is based on that very powerful small word "if". I recall a German friend of mine who is very pro-British saying to me something along the lines that the problem the British have is that they think the EU commission is much more powerful than it is. Even "if" this was the desire of many Brussels bureaucrats, the ability to implement in the face of the other structures and practical difficulties would be very small. And even if it were proposed, and attempted to be implemented, that would be the time to use our sovereign right to say no and if necessary withdraw. The crazy thing about withdrawing now is that it serves no rational purpose.
    Of course they haven't demanded it. It's a slow, insidious creep towards a federal EU. One power grab at a time.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    RobD said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr D,

    They might be right when they say this is the last chance to get out."

    It's a last desperate throw of the dice. "We're all doomed, Mr Mainwaring, we're can't leave even if we wanted to, we left it too late. Resign yourself to your fate."

    I'm not sure that's a winning strategy.




    Maybe, but I don't think saying that it's too difficult to leave will make leavers switch to remain.
    The argument isn't that it's too difficult; it's that it isn't worth the cost.
    Moving from pretending you can have all the same benefits from leaving to quantifying how much we will have to pay to get to where you want to. I'm banking on a middle ground group who would have always supported the Vote Leave prospectus, but are sensible enough to pull back from the brink once the full costs are identified.

    Whether it would be even more costly in the future isn't really the point - I suspect that anyone making that argument is a committed leaver.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,869
    Pulpstar said:
    Javid is more powerful than May. She knows that if he walks the game is up for her. He needs to watch out for the briefing machine.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    dr_spyn said:

    Grayling out of his depth in a teardrop.

    It's a sad reflection on the state of modern politics that an idiot like Grayling can hold down a cabinet job for so long. (And the same could be said for some on the Labour front bench).
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited July 2018
    Scott_P said:
    I didn't realise Olly Robbins and the PM were Brexiters? They have been in effective charge of the negotiations for the last 12 months.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    I've got more bad news for the Tories. From looking like a throwback to the loony left London boroughs of the 70's Corbyn is starting to assume the mantle of a senior statesman and he's doing it well.

    The changes have been subtle but within six months to a year I reckon Clark Kent will be no more. Obviously he's being helped by those on the other side but he's a long way from the Corbyn of old.

    *Even those behind him like Dianne Abbott have upped their game and keeping McDonnell in his kennel was a good decision
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    *Long-shot betting tip*

    Steve Bullock, Democratic Governor of Montana.
    I got on at 289/1 for a few quid, still available at 249/1 on betfair.

    Has said he is considering a run and is visiting Iowa this week, "I'm the only Democrat that got re-elected in a statewide race where the President won." is quite a nice line.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/21/politics/democrat-governors-2020/index.html

    Perhaps not as conservative as you might think; he's pro-choice, supports same-sex marriage, gone after FedEx for classifying employees as contractors and challenged the Citizens United case successfully in Montana, although the Supreme Court later ruled against him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Scott_P said:
    What a twat. Because Leavers have been running Brexit, huh?

    #StateSecretsBlownWideOpen
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,635
    edited July 2018
    Roger said:

    I've got more bad news for the Tories. From looking like a throwback to the loony left London boroughs of the 70's Corbyn is starting to assume the mantle of a senior statesman and he's doing it well.
    ...

    Margaret Hodge and Mishcon de Reya will disagree with you.

    Does every lawyer not want to write that sort of letter?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Roger, your timing was impeccable :D
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    I've got more bad news for the Tories. From looking like a throwback to the loony left London boroughs of the 70's Corbyn is starting to assume the mantle of a senior statesman and he's doing it well.
    ...

    Margaret Hodge and Mishcon de Reya will disagree with you.

    Does every lawyer not want to write that sort of letter?
    Rogerdamus right on time there!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    RobD “Of course they haven't demanded it. It's a slow, insidious creep towards a federal EU. One power grab at a time”

    They can only "grab power" if we agree it, as I indicated in my post? The EU is a collective of 28/27 sovereign countries. The real power continues to reside with the Council of Ministers, who are elected representatives of each sovereign democratic state. (This is one of the other great lies, that EU is not democratic). It is most unlikely, given the nature of how it has always been run, that the 27 would completely ignore the wishes of the 28th. It maybe how the schoolboy fantasies of Nigel Farage that imagine this, but there is no evidence in the reality. Where it doesn't work so well is in reverse (which is what EU-loathers want now), where one state wants the other 27 to limit something (eg free movement) that the other 27 wish to retain. The "EU" are not the bully-boys here. We are, and we should be ashamed that our leaders have put us in this position.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    RobD “Of course they haven't demanded it. It's a slow, insidious creep towards a federal EU. One power grab at a time”

    They can only "grab power" if we agree it, as I indicated in my post? The EU is a collective of 28/27 sovereign countries. The real power continues to reside with the Council of Ministers, who are elected representatives of each sovereign democratic state. (This is one of the other great lies, that EU is not democratic). It is most unlikely, given the nature of how it has always been run, that the 27 would completely ignore the wishes of the 28th. It maybe how the schoolboy fantasies of Nigel Farage that imagine this, but there is no evidence in the reality. Where it doesn't work so well is in reverse (which is what EU-loathers want now), where one state wants the other 27 to limit something (eg free movement) that the other 27 wish to retain. The "EU" are not the bully-boys here. We are, and we should be ashamed that our leaders have put us in this position.

    This year an EU proposal for our exit included what amounted to a land grab on NI.

    But definitely not the bully-boy...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,635
    edited July 2018

    RobD “Of course they haven't demanded it. It's a slow, insidious creep towards a federal EU. One power grab at a time”

    They can only "grab power" if we agree it, as I indicated in my post? The EU is a collective of 28/27 sovereign countries. The real power continues to reside with the Council of Ministers, who are elected representatives of each sovereign democratic state. (This is one of the other great lies, that EU is not democratic). It is most unlikely, given the nature of how it has always been run, that the 27 would completely ignore the wishes of the 28th. It maybe how the schoolboy fantasies of Nigel Farage that imagine this, but there is no evidence in the reality. Where it doesn't work so well is in reverse (which is what EU-loathers want now), where one state wants the other 27 to limit something (eg free movement) that the other 27 wish to retain. The "EU" are not the bully-boys here. We are, and we should be ashamed that our leaders have put us in this position.

    You are right about the pre-Lisbon EU. But the replacement of unanimous voting with QMV in most cases is what drove myself and many others to vote to leave. Under QMV we don’t have a say if enough others disagree. The expansion of QMV was a massive power grab.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    CD13 said:

    Mr Polruan,

    1707 seems an interesting comparison. The rich Scots having lost a fortune needed a friendly shelter. The poor Scots didn't deserve a say. It's a good job they didn't get one. Democracy? Pah!

    Edit: I'm no historian but I'm sure the Scots will enlighten me if I'm wrong.

    You got it in one, the small elite rich just did what they wanted and the majority were doomed to 300 years of slavery. It was always thus. So downtrodden the morons voted to stay as slaves to Westminster, unbelievable.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Scott_P said:
    What a twat. Because Leavers have been running Brexit, huh?

    #StateSecretsBlownWideOpen
    So Heseltine wants a calamity for the country for point scoring purposes, Adonis thinks that is a "magisterial" position, and the whole thing gets the imprimatur of a re-bleat from Scottie. Congrats to all 3.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Roger said:

    I've got more bad news for the Tories. From looking like a throwback to the loony left London boroughs of the 70's Corbyn is starting to assume the mantle of a senior statesman and he's doing it well.

    The changes have been subtle but within six months to a year I reckon Clark Kent will be no more. Obviously he's being helped by those on the other side but he's a long way from the Corbyn of old.

    *Even those behind him like Dianne Abbott have upped their game and keeping McDonnell in his kennel was a good decision

    Roger, you were doing well up until "Abbott" she is incoherent and cannot string two words together, surely only in place due to being an old amour of Che.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    malcolmg said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Polruan,

    1707 seems an interesting comparison. The rich Scots having lost a fortune needed a friendly shelter. The poor Scots didn't deserve a say. It's a good job they didn't get one. Democracy? Pah!

    Edit: I'm no historian but I'm sure the Scots will enlighten me if I'm wrong.

    You got it in one, the small elite rich just did what they wanted and the majority were doomed to 300 years of slavery. It was always thus. So downtrodden the morons voted to stay as slaves to Westminster, unbelievable.
    Scots are slaves?

    Where can I buy a few?

    image
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Scott_P said:
    What a twat. Because Leavers have been running Brexit, huh?

    #StateSecretsBlownWideOpen
    Yep, the three horseman of the Brexitapocalypse: Fox, Davis, and Johnson. All three of them all lied about how easy it would all be. They have been proven to be dishonest, not in command of their brief and fundamentally incompetent. They own it, and they need to be held accountable for years to come.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,635
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Dutch foreign minister has made some very controversial remarks about multiculturalism:

    "Peaceful multicultural societies don't exist, Dutch FM says"

    https://nltimes.nl/2018/07/18/peaceful-multicultural-societies-dont-exist-dutch-fm-says

    "The Netherlands’ foreign minister has been criticised for saying he knew of no peaceful multicultural societies and calling Suriname, a former Dutch colony, a “failed state”.
    Stef Blok, a member of the ruling VVD centre-right party, made the comments about migration and multiculturalism at a closed-door meeting of international organisations in The Hague last week.
    “Give me an example of a multi-ethnic or a multicultural society, in which the original population still lives and where there is a peaceful cohabitation. I don’t know one,” Mr Blok said, according to a leaked recording of his address that was broadcast on Dutch television on Thursday."


    https://www.ft.com/content/2892637c-8aa5-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543

    Singapore? Although it's a bit draconian there.
    Well other than the gun crime and the fact that the "original" population has been somewhat outnumbered, I think the United States of America might disagree. With exception of a few tribes in the Amazon rainforest there are very few mono-ethnic cultures. A certain Mr. Hitler did try to achieve such a status, and this did not end peacefully. A bit more far right wing twattery - when will they learn?
    Iceland?
    Well yes. Ok...apart from Iceland
    On checking Wiki Iceland actually has a higher % of Poles in the population than the UK. With 93% inhabitants born in Iceland, it's probably more diverse than several areas in the UK that voted for Brexit.
    I'd imagine a similar split in Iceland. More diverse in the capital, less diverse in the rural areas.
    Speaking of Iceland, now Michael Gove et al has the prospect of "taking back control" of our fishing, can we look forward to "Cod War 2" . That'll be a good bit of red/white meat for your average Col Blimp to get cross and nationalistic about
    Does France have any cod?
    We have already given it away again have we not.
This discussion has been closed.