Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A week is a long time in politics

1235

Comments

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Sorry for your loss, he sounds like he was a character though :)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291

    kle4 said:

    Bradley Wiggins being very testy on Tour de France coverage at the moment. Claiming all sorts about Damien Collins.

    I am stunned. Good thing the guilty never get testy about being called out as much as the innocent.
    I am not idea what you are suggesting....all I know is according to Wiggins, MPs use parliamentary privilege to spread lies and it is all an establishment setup. All that was missing was an Alex Jones style rant about the deep state.
    Isn't that precisely what Tom Watson did?
    Surprised he didn't mention it. You could have cut the tension with a knife as the guy gently (and I mean gently) asked him about things.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,912
    viewcode said:

    I posted this focus group before - I wonder if I should have bothered - but it is at least an insight into where the public might actually be. There's an irony that this issue is all about the politicians having to listen to the public and yet so much of the debate on here is on the terms set by the political class. If you think these Brexit voters have got some kind of disease of the mind please explain.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmyHSMWK148

    Thank you for that. I did try and get thru it, but even at double speed it was a chore: too much Evan Thingy and pauses. Might have been better as a transcript: I'll try again later tonight.

    Parenthetically, one problem with focus groups is that they're a group: not everybody answers every question. They're a bit of a lazy way to research. However, market research is a collection of short-cuts, so we'll just have to live with it.
    Two key points came out for me.
    1) Didn't seem to be much appetite for another vote and vehement anger at the idea from Leavers.
    2) An overwhelming preference, including among remainers, for a more distant Canada deal rather than a closer Norway deal.

    Very much reinforces my belief that at the moment, no one particularly believes the economic warnings.
  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,436

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Alastair

    I am sorry to read your bad news. I trust it was not too painful and prolonged at the end. Condolences to you and your family.

    Your eulogy really brought your father back to life. It shows that there are somethings which are more important than Brexit!
  • Options
    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Sad news indeed, I knew your father and worked with him when I was an apprentice. He was always full of stories about his childhood in Cumbria. Sad news indeed.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Condolences for you and your family.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123

    malcolmg said:

    I'm getting to be quite sanguine about the prospect of 'no deal'. Yes, there are going to be some unpleasant consequences, but they'll disproportionally affect the places that voted to leave - so that's justice of a sort. But the greatest prize is that it's going to see the Tories out of power for a generation. i.e. We're talking 'Black Wednesday' to the power of 10.

    One good thing will come of it at least then.
    + Witnessing Toby Young's reaction when Jeremy Corbyn walks into 10 Downing Street. Priceless ...
    You think Corbyn and Abbot are capable of sorting out the economic mess that 'no deal' would mean?

    I suggest a run on pound will be just the start.
    Of course, they aren't. It's just that people will prefer a nice socialist economic chaos over a nasty tory economic chaos.
    Tory plus UKIP is on about 44% in the latest polls compared to Labour on 40% and the Tories alone on 36%.
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Been there, got the t-shirt, etc.. A nurse carer helping with my father told me a word that helped. You won't find it in any dictionary but it summed up the feelings after he passed: "Grelief" Grief at the passing and relief that it was over.

    There always feels like there is guilt at not being able to do more, but death is as natural as birth, it is what you do in between that makes a difference, and from your writing, he did very well indeed.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Condolences Alistair and a fine tribute
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    I'm getting to be quite sanguine about the prospect of 'no deal'. Yes, there are going to be some unpleasant consequences, but they'll disproportionally affect the places that voted to leave - so that's justice of a sort. But the greatest prize is that it's going to see the Tories out of power for a generation. i.e. We're talking 'Black Wednesday' to the power of 10.

    One good thing will come of it at least then.
    + Witnessing Toby Young's reaction when Jeremy Corbyn walks into 10 Downing Street. Priceless ...
    You think Corbyn and Abbot are capable of sorting out the economic mess that 'no deal' would mean?

    I suggest a run on pound will be just the start.
    Of course, they aren't. It's just that people will prefer a nice socialist economic chaos over a nasty tory economic chaos.
    Tory plus UKIP is on about 44% in the latest polls compared to Labour on 40% and the Tories alone on 36%.
    UKIP can't be plussed to Tories any more than Lib Dems can be plussed to Labour. Though if you were going to go down that avenue then Labour plus Lib Dems is currently greater than Tories plus UKIP. Which is all utterly meaningless
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    I'm getting to be quite sanguine about the prospect of 'no deal'. Yes, there are going to be some unpleasant consequences, but they'll disproportionally affect the places that voted to leave - so that's justice of a sort. But the greatest prize is that it's going to see the Tories out of power for a generation. i.e. We're talking 'Black Wednesday' to the power of 10.

    One good thing will come of it at least then.
    + Witnessing Toby Young's reaction when Jeremy Corbyn walks into 10 Downing Street. Priceless ...
    You think Corbyn and Abbot are capable of sorting out the economic mess that 'no deal' would mean?

    I suggest a run on pound will be just the start.
    Of course, they aren't. It's just that people will prefer a nice socialist economic chaos over a nasty tory economic chaos.
    Tory plus UKIP is on about 44% in the latest polls compared to Labour on 40% and the Tories alone on 36%.
    UKIP can't be plussed to Tories any more than Lib Dems can be plussed to Labour. Though if you were going to go down that avenue then Labour plus Lib Dems is currently greater than Tories plus UKIP. Which is all utterly meaningless
    Most can given the Tories got 42% at the last general election. LDs are not pro Corbyn in the same way UKIP are pro hard Brexit
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    I'm getting to be quite sanguine about the prospect of 'no deal'. Yes, there are going to be some unpleasant consequences, but they'll disproportionally affect the places that voted to leave - so that's justice of a sort. But the greatest prize is that it's going to see the Tories out of power for a generation. i.e. We're talking 'Black Wednesday' to the power of 10.

    One good thing will come of it at least then.
    + Witnessing Toby Young's reaction when Jeremy Corbyn walks into 10 Downing Street. Priceless ...
    You think Corbyn and Abbot are capable of sorting out the economic mess that 'no deal' would mean?

    I suggest a run on pound will be just the start.
    Of course, they aren't. It's just that people will prefer a nice socialist economic chaos over a nasty tory economic chaos.
    Tory plus UKIP is on about 44% in the latest polls compared to Labour on 40% and the Tories alone on 36%.
    UKIP can't be plussed to Tories any more than Lib Dems can be plussed to Labour. Though if you were going to go down that avenue then Labour plus Lib Dems is currently greater than Tories plus UKIP. Which is all utterly meaningless
    Most can given the Tories got 42% at the last general election. LDs are not pro Corbyn in the same way UKIP are pro hard Brexit
    UKIP are largely anti establishment and more than ever before the BNP in blazers. They're not Tories by another name.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    @AlastairMeeks Sorry to read of your loss, you have penned a fine tribute to your Dad.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    I'm getting to be quite sanguine about the prospect of 'no deal'. Yes, there are going to be some unpleasant consequences, but they'll disproportionally affect the places that voted to leave - so that's justice of a sort. But the greatest prize is that it's going to see the Tories out of power for a generation. i.e. We're talking 'Black Wednesday' to the power of 10.

    One good thing will come of it at least then.
    + Witnessing Toby Young's reaction when Jeremy Corbyn walks into 10 Downing Street. Priceless ...
    You think Corbyn and Abbot are capable of sorting out the economic mess that 'no deal' would mean?

    I suggest a run on pound will be just the start.
    Of course, they aren't. It's just that people will prefer a nice socialist economic chaos over a nasty tory economic chaos.
    Tory plus UKIP is on about 44% in the latest polls compared to Labour on 40% and the Tories alone on 36%.
    UKIP can't be plussed to Tories any more than Lib Dems can be plussed to Labour. Though if you were going to go down that avenue then Labour plus Lib Dems is currently greater than Tories plus UKIP. Which is all utterly meaningless
    Most can given the Tories got 42% at the last general election. LDs are not pro Corbyn in the same way UKIP are pro hard Brexit
    UKIP are largely anti establishment and more than ever before the BNP in blazers. They're not Tories by another name.
    Over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters voted Tory in 2017. Given Corbyn has united the left behind him in a way Miliband failed to do in 2015 when the Tories could survive a higher UKIP share they will not be able to repeat the trick in 2022.

    So while 36% gave a Tory majority in 2015 when Labour were on 30% with Labour now on 40% under Corbyn as Corbyn has squeezed the Green and SNP votes and further squeezed the LDs, gained a fifth of the 2015 UKIP vote and got support from 2015 non voters, a 36% Tory voteshare again will make Corbyn PM in 2022
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    kle4 said:

    OchEye said:

    kle4 said:

    OchEye said:

    The problem for May is that Tory support is not only pro Brexit it is probably now swinging pro No Deal, if PB is any bellwether.

    Only Big G is now sticking up for Chequers.

    Meanwhile, it feels like the EU smell blood. One presumes the EU want a deal, but there is a chance they do not, all the better to crush us completely.

    The UK in it's own collective and electoral decision decided to leave the "club". Can anyone tell me of any instance that a member leaving a club demands that the club changes its rules to benefit the leaver? Just imagine a member leaving a golf club, but demanding that they are allowed to play when they want and get free drinks at the bar. The commission oops! sorry, committee would tell him to close the door on the way out. Byee.. .
    It's a negotiation, that means we ask for things, they ask for things. When people make this argument that the EU has no wiggle room on what to offer because we have left the club it is an argument that negotiation was pointless from the beginning. In which case why were the EU even bothering with it?
    Instead of demanding the impossible, maybe it would have been wiser asking what was possible. Ah! But that wouldn't have made good headlines would it? Just imagine the headers in the Mail and Torygraph "Tories abase themselves before Barnier" Instead, we have this:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-brexit-michel-barnier-brexit-a8456806.html?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1532110058
    The demands we have made may well have been unreasonable (certainly May's should not have taken this long to prepare, given everyone assumed that the EU would say they were unacceptable). But the club analogy, sadly like all analogy, never quite captures everything since it suggests the EU cannot make any concessions, when the whole point of a negotiation is they can - just not necessarily the ones we want them to, and not as many as they will ask of us.
    The EU cannot make concessions. 28, soon to be 27 countries have signed many treaties and agreements between each other and the EU itself. Just look at how difficult it is for the UK to unpick itself and if you think any other country wants to do the same and renegotiate with all the others, you are completely nuts. The others all realise the benefits of being able to trade and move between and across borders, and the power of being able to do deals with other blocs and countries on a basis of strength of size. The UK just carped from the sidelines, and the other 27 will probably be quite glad to see the back of us..
  • Options
    JenSJenS Posts: 91

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    A very moving tribute - it brought tears to my eyes. I have lost both my parents now. As someone said to me, you don't get over it (and you don't, ever), but you do get used to it. Bereavement is an experience that changes us. You see things differently afterwards.

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OchEye said:



    The EU cannot make concessions. 28, soon to be 27 countries have signed many treaties and agreements between each other and the EU itself. Just look at how difficult it is for the UK to unpick itself and if you think any other country wants to do the same and renegotiate with all the others, you are completely nuts. The others all realise the benefits of being able to trade and move between and across borders, and the power of being able to do deals with other blocs and countries on a basis of strength of size. The UK just carped from the sidelines, and the other 27 will probably be quite glad to see the back of us..

    If they were that glad to be rid of us they'd be trying to facilitate a clean break not make things difficult.

    Instead they're taking rejection like a spurned lover.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    A very nice tribute, Mr Meeks.

    My deepest sympathy.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123
    27% of voters are pro capitalism and private free enterprise, 21% are anti capitalism and private free enterprise, 39% of voters are neutral or undecided on a new poll

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1020644317373829120
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    edited July 2018
    Mr Urquhart,

    "Bradley Wiggins being very testy on Tour de France coverage at the moment."

    You'd never catch me on a bike. It's too bloody dangerous. All the best riders seem to develop asthma.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    I'm very sorry to hear that.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,775

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Thanks for sharing that, Alastair. Sounds like a lovely man to have as your dad.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    2h2 hours ago

    Sweden, Sifo poll:

    Vote share of Social Democrats (S&D) in different social groups.

    Overall: 26 %

    Female 29
    Male 23

    Age
    18-23: 13
    24-29: 19
    30-49: 22
    50-64: 27
    65+: 36

    Trade Unionist: 34
    Confed of Professional Employees: 28
    Organizations of Academics: 21

    #svpol #val201"
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    Sean_F said:

    More to the point, Leave does not have a majority in either house. If another referendum is put to the country, it will leave Parliament with a Remain option included in it. Leavers could huff and puff until they're red in the face but they don't have the votes to stop it.

    The person with the most agency over all of this in the UK is Theresa May, and her moment of maximum power is the day when the text of the withdrawal agreement is finalised (probably with a very brief political declaration about a future relationship with an Association Agreement structure). If she has an ounce of political sense, she will announce a second referendum with an option to Remain on that day. There will be no possibility that parliament will stand in her way, and a VoNC within the Tory party would be pointless.
    She can announce it if she likes, but it would be her last act as Conservative leader.
    You think? If she did that and remain won the subsequent referendum she'd be a hero. I think she'd finally get her hundred seat majority in the next election. I might even vote for her myself.
    She'd have to break with the Conservative Party, and try to form an anti-Conservative coalition, to get the legislation through, and fight such a referendum.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,872
    Sorry to hear of your loss Alistair, and thankyou for sharing your tribute.

    I remember as eldest son having to do the same when my mother passed away - at the painfully young age of 56.

    Best wishes and condolences to you.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,612

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    My condolences, Alastair.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    27% of voters are pro capitalism and private free enterprise, 21% are anti capitalism and private free enterprise, 39% of voters are neutral or undecided on a new poll

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1020644317373829120

    Would one`s response not depend on the extent to which the government of the day kept private free enterprise under control? Mrs May`s Conservative Government seems hell-bent on letting private free enterprise decide the rules of the game. Examples - abolition of any real planning controls, promoting fracking etc

    Given the choices on offer, my answer would have to be Dunno, though I do know very well. Sloppy survey, I think.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Meeks, my condolences on your loss.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    27% of voters are pro capitalism and private free enterprise, 21% are anti capitalism and private free enterprise, 39% of voters are neutral or undecided on a new poll

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1020644317373829120

    Would one`s response not depend on the extent to which the government of the day kept private free enterprise under control? Mrs May`s Conservative Government seems hell-bent on letting private free enterprise decide the rules of the game. Examples - abolition of any real planning controls, promoting fracking etc

    Given the choices on offer, my answer would have to be Dunno, though I do know very well. Sloppy survey, I think.
    Abolition (or dramatically liberalising) planning controls is precisely what we need to end the housing crisis.
  • Options
    booksellerbookseller Posts: 421

    OchEye said:



    The EU cannot make concessions. 28, soon to be 27 countries have signed many treaties and agreements between each other and the EU itself. Just look at how difficult it is for the UK to unpick itself and if you think any other country wants to do the same and renegotiate with all the others, you are completely nuts. The others all realise the benefits of being able to trade and move between and across borders, and the power of being able to do deals with other blocs and countries on a basis of strength of size. The UK just carped from the sidelines, and the other 27 will probably be quite glad to see the back of us..

    If they were that glad to be rid of us they'd be trying to facilitate a clean break not make things difficult.

    Instead they're taking rejection like a spurned lover.
    Afternoon all.

    As a die-hard Remainer, I am now - reluctantly - coming round to the "Hard-Brexit-as-a-route-to-back-in-the-EU" point of view.

    I don't say this with any great enthusiasm. Too many of my friends are EU nationals living with a Sword of Damocles over them to know just how bloody awful this will be (for them). But FWIW, here's my reasoning. I'm sure I'm not the only one thinking this, and I can hear Moggsy's laughing into his evening cocoa.

    Any semblance of compromise is obviously not possible - the country is too split, and the Brexiteers have powerful forces able to continue to swing opinion and jerk May around too much to be able to a) offer any meaningful concessions, or even be trusted to negotiate in good faith.

    A No Deal Brexit will be painful, economically damaging and leave scar tissue for a generation. But the pain it will inflict will allow us to see the reality of what we've chucked away and the reality of our global situation.

    If - as the Brexiteers predict - the UK moves into the sunny uplands of economic prosperity, then no-one will remember us Remainers in a few years (and I'm sure that chlorine-washed chicken doesn't taste too bad).

    But if things get as bad as I suspect, then I think you will see a movement to get back in the EU. It may take 20 years (it took that long for Farage et al to get us out) but we can go back a more humble nation, ready to properly sign up to Schengen, the Euro, etc. In that way we can become a full partner of the EU, and try to make it work.

    It took 69 years for Texas to (properly) join the Union. It may take us that long too.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Interesting theory bookseller.

    How long has it taken for Ontario to join the USA?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I've often compared the UK to Canada relative to the EU's USA. To expand the analogy further I guess that would make Ireland like Alaska.

    Does that make Varadkar Sarah Palin? Seems about as credible.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,872
    The idea that hard Brexit is the only way back may be psychologically satisfying, but is unlikely to be true.

    Chaos breeds chaos.

    There will be knock on effects that cannot be predicted, but which are unlikely to be positive.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2018
    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123
    edited July 2018

    OchEye said:



    The EU cannot make concessions. 28, soon to be 27 countries have signed many treaties and agreements between each other and the EU itself. Just look at how difficult it is f us..

    If they were that glad to be rid of us they'd be trying to facilitate a clean break not make things difficult.

    Instead they're taking rejection like a spurned lover.
    Afternoon all.

    As a die-hard Remainer, I am now - reluctantly - coming round to the "Hard-Brexit-as-a-route-to-back-in-the-EU" point of view.

    I don't say this with any great enthusiasm. Too many of my friends are EU nationals living with a Sword of Damocles over them to know just how bloody awful this will be (for them). But FWIW, here's my reasoning. I'm sure I'm not the only one thinking this, and I can hear Moggsy's laughing into his evening cocoa.

    Any semblance of compromise is obviously not possible - the country is too split, and the Brexiteers have powerful forces able to continue to swing opinion and jerk May around too much to be able to a) offer any meaningful concessions, or even be trusted to negotiate in good faith.

    A No Deal Brexit will be painful, economically damaging and leave scar tissue for a generation. But the pain it will inflict will allow us to see the reality of what we've chucked away and the reality of our global situation.

    If - as the Brexiteers predict - the UK moves into the sunny uplands of economic prosperity, then no-one will remember us Remainers in a few years (and I'm sure that chlorine-washed chicken doesn't taste too bad).

    But if things get as bad as I suspect, then I think you will see a movement to get back in the EU. It may take 20 years (it took that long for Farage et al to get us out) but we can go back a more humble nation, ready to properly sign up to Schengen, the Euro, etc. In that way we can become a full partner of the EU, and try to make it work.

    It took 69 years for Texas to (properly) join the Union. It may take us that long too.
    At the most after a few years of tightened immigration rules we will rejoin the single market rather than the full EU and certainly not the Euro.

    More likely the EU evolves to being focused on the Eurozone nations and the original EEC founder members of France, Germany, Italy and the Benelux nations plus Spain and Portugal and Greece (which were then under dictatorships) and Ireland which was then under De Valera isolation and maybe Finland too.

    The UK, Sweden and Denmark will rejoin Norway and Switzerland along with Iceland in EFTA, perhaps joined by some Eastern European nations and Austria too
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123
    edited July 2018
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    27% of voters are pro capitalism and private free enterprise, 21% are anti capitalism and private free enterprise, 39% of voters are neutral or undecided on a new poll

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1020644317373829120

    Would one`s response not depend on the extent to which the government of the day kept private free enterprise under control? Mrs May`s Conservative Government seems hell-bent on letting private free enterprise decide the rules of the game. Examples - abolition of any real planning controls, promoting fracking etc

    Given the choices on offer, my answer would have to be Dunno, though I do know very well. Sloppy survey, I think.
    Compared to Osborne and Cameron, May, with her workers on boards plans and huge extra funds for the NHS and housing targets is less private free enterprise
  • Options
    booksellerbookseller Posts: 421

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    But you are not counting in people like me who will be working hard to rejoin :-)
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    No deal Brexit would cement the already-entrenched views of the public. Since Leavers are much older than Remainers, that would be a major long term problem for the headbangers.
  • Options
    booksellerbookseller Posts: 421

    Interesting theory bookseller.

    How long has it taken for Ontario to join the USA?

    Touché.

    Although of course Ontario hadn't been a member of the US, and thus never broke away and was waiting to re-join. We now have 40 years of positive membership of the EU under our belts. As time goes by, expect nostalgia to rejoin to grow into a potent force.
  • Options
    booksellerbookseller Posts: 421

    The idea that hard Brexit is the only way back may be psychologically satisfying, but is unlikely to be true.

    Chaos breeds chaos.

    There will be knock on effects that cannot be predicted, but which are unlikely to be positive.

    Very psychologically satisfying - and a bit of succour to offer to my EU mates.
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Sorry to hear that, but a lovely piece of writing. My best wishes.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    So sorry to hear that Alastair. My thoughts are with you.

    Thanks for sharing a beautifully written tribute.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123

    Interesting theory bookseller.

    How long has it taken for Ontario to join the USA?

    Touché.

    Although of course Ontario hadn't been a member of the US, and thus never broke away and was waiting to re-join. We now have 40 years of positive membership of the EU under our belts. As time goes by, expect nostalgia to rejoin to grow into a potent force.
    We never originally joined the EEC in the first place, we joined EFTA which in retrospect is where we should have stayed
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Meeks, point of order: Remain and Rejoin are substantially different propositions.

    Not only that, going through economic turbulence will reduce the inclination to return. When people go through something difficult they want to feel it was worth it. I wrote a similar thing when people were wondering if Ed Miliband would resign (pre-2015 election) as Labour leader.

    Mr. Bookseller, positive membership? The reneging of the promise of a referendum on Lisbon and the rising sceptical sentiment does not suppose a comfortable relationship, and the EU's renegotiation, likened to Chamberlain's piece of paper, did not promote the idea that the EU gave a damn for the British public's concerns.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    So sorry to hear that Alastair. My thoughts are with you.

    Thanks for sharing a beautifully written tribute.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,382

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    That's rather naive. We joined because Europe was seen to be doing better economically while the UK was struggling and progressively falling behind.. If economics repeats itself then so will history.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123
    Scott_P said:
    What a stupid question.

    He believes in Brexit because he believes in regaining sovereignty and control of our borders.

    That is not a matter of right or wrong but a question of ideology and belief
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359
    Polruan said:

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Sorry to hear that, but a lovely piece of writing. My best wishes.
    Yes, very much so. It's moments like this when we all take a step back from squabbling. All good wishes.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    edited July 2018

    Corporeal wonders just what you’ve done to deserve your current political situation.

    The answer is hatred of freedom.

    What a load of guff.

    The Corbasm doesn’t especially worry me: it wasn’t, in the main, a reaction against freedom, but a reaction against the limits of capitalism and consumerism. Youngsters might have voted corbyn because of housing, but they don’t lie awake dreaming of council rents, but of being owner occupiers. Many Corbyn voters will become Tories in short order, I’d wager.

    And Eurosceptics don’t detest the freedom of a Europe free from war, but the constraints that the EU Commission puts on individuals’ (and particularly nation states) freedom of action.

  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,041
    Scott_P said:
    The man is a tw*t. It's just worrying that a sh*thead like him is basically in charge of our country.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    F1: boss of Ferrari may end up changing. If so, some reckon that might mean Raikkonen stays and Leclerc does not end up joining.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    Scott_P said:
    KG-M and Channel 4 disappearing up their fundament there. Mogg's sanity and integrity shine through.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359

    The problem for May is that Tory support is not only pro Brexit it is probably now swinging pro No Deal, if PB is any bellwether.

    Only Big G is now sticking up for Chequers.

    Meanwhile, it feels like the EU smell blood. One presumes the EU want a deal, but there is a chance they do not, all the better to crush us completely.

    It's a negotiation. Britain has fannied about for over a year and has finally come with a proposal. Barnier is polite about it, sees it as progress, but points out aspects the EU will find difficult. Further discussions will follow, not necessarily to give ground but at least to clarify. What did we expect, that they'd just say "yeah, whatever"?
  • Options
    booksellerbookseller Posts: 421

    Mr. Meeks, point of order: Remain and Rejoin are substantially different propositions.

    Not only that, going through economic turbulence will reduce the inclination to return. When people go through something difficult they want to feel it was worth it. I wrote a similar thing when people were wondering if Ed Miliband would resign (pre-2015 election) as Labour leader.

    Mr. Bookseller, positive membership? The reneging of the promise of a referendum on Lisbon and the rising sceptical sentiment does not suppose a comfortable relationship, and the EU's renegotiation, likened to Chamberlain's piece of paper, did not promote the idea that the EU gave a damn for the British public's concerns.

    The EU - as a political entity - is moving inexorably towards a United States of Europe. Which has always been known. Here's Hugh Gaitskill in 1962: "We must be clear about this; it does
    mean...the end of Britain as an independent European state. I make no apology for repeating
    it. It means the end of a thousand years of history. You may say: “Let it end.”. But, my goodness, it is a decision that needs a little care and thought."

    So the fact that "we didn't know this meant political union" is largely BS.

    My experience of being an EU member has been overwhelmingly positive - hence my use of the word. Yours has been not. I intend to try to get back in. I think that's the root of our disagreement, and whilst I appreciate your position, I cannot agree with it.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    IanB2 said:

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    That's rather naive. We joined because Europe was seen to be doing better economically while the UK was struggling and progressively falling behind.. If economics repeats itself then so will history.
    Would we still have joined ten years later, when Maggie had started to get to grips with the issues behind the "sick man of Europe" tag?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,120
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting theory bookseller.

    How long has it taken for Ontario to join the USA?

    Touché.

    Although of course Ontario hadn't been a member of the US, and thus never broke away and was waiting to re-join. We now have 40 years of positive membership of the EU under our belts. As time goes by, expect nostalgia to rejoin to grow into a potent force.
    We never originally joined the EEC in the first place, we joined EFTA which in retrospect is where we should have stayed
    We joined because being in the "outer seven" was unconducive to our needs.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a stupid question.

    He believes in Brexit because he believes in regaining sovereignty and control of our borders.

    That is not a matter of right or wrong but a question of ideology and belief
    Who knows what Britain will be like in 50 years, it may be booming but voters decided regaining sovereignty through Brexit was worth any short term economic pain abd would bring long term gains
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,295

    Off topic, my father died last Sunday. I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Just catching up. My condolences on your loss. All the best to you and yours.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Bookseller, trying to strangle national identities with red tape and the myth of a European identity will end in tears.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    geoffw said:



    Scott_P said:
    KG-M and Channel 4 disappearing up their fundament there. Mogg's sanity and integrity shine through.
    That's true, though I think that while his sanity is not in doubt I don't think his integrity is anything to write home about in his general dealings with the media. But here's a good example of a leaver wriggling and being evasive.

    https://twitter.com/mpc_1968/status/1019679046979018752
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,120

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    How many independent nations have no border infrastructure on their only land border and frictionless trade across it? Almost by definition delivering such an outcome means being interdependent. If you want to be independent, you need to start by breaking up the UK.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a stupid question.

    He believes in Brexit because he believes in regaining sovereignty and control of our borders.

    That is not a matter of right or wrong but a question of ideology and belief
    Who knows what Britain will be like in 50 years, it may be booming but voters decided regaining sovereignty through Brexit was worth any short term economic pain abd would bring long term gains
    I very much doubt voters are going to be looking at a 50 year time horizon. They’ll be expecting something to show for it sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, Leavers are getting steadily more excited about the next downward twist of the corkscrew. I hope they’re prepared for the unpopularity that would be heading their way in that event.

    They don’t seem to have been prepared for any other post-Brexit developments though.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a stupid question.

    He believes in Brexit because he believes in regaining sovereignty and control of our borders.

    That is not a matter of right or wrong but a question of ideology and belief
    Who knows what Britain will be like in 50 years, it may be booming but voters decided regaining sovereignty through Brexit was worth any short term economic pain abd would bring long term gains
    I very much doubt voters are going to be looking at a 50 year time horizon. They’ll be expecting something to show for it sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, Leavers are getting steadily more excited about the next downward twist of the corkscrew. I hope they’re prepared for the unpopularity that would be heading their way in that event.

    They don’t seem to have been prepared for any other post-Brexit developments though.
    That sonething they will want to see is a reduction in EU regulations and directives affecting the UK and a reduction in immigration from the EU which was why they voted Leave in the first place
  • Options
    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Boris is still living in the foreign secretaries official residence. It seems he doesn't understand that exit means exit.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting theory bookseller.

    How long has it taken for Ontario to join the USA?

    Touché.

    Although of course Ontario hadn't been a member of the US, and thus never broke away and was waiting to re-join. We now have 40 years of positive membership of the EU under our belts. As time goes by, expect nostalgia to rejoin to grow into a potent force.
    We never originally joined the EEC in the first place, we joined EFTA which in retrospect is where we should have stayed
    We joined because being in the "outer seven" was unconducive to our needs.
    No we joined because Heath, like you was an EEC/EU Federalist ideologue who would have signed up straight away to the Euro too if he could, again just like you and had zero interest in our historical and cultural ties to the Commonwealth or USA either, again just like you.

    EFTA is where we correctly joined as it kept an economic relationship with Europe without the ideal of political unity of the Euro Federalists which was never something we were culturally interested in, apart from a few fanatics like you
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,120
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a stupid question.

    He believes in Brexit because he believes in regaining sovereignty and control of our borders.

    That is not a matter of right or wrong but a question of ideology and belief
    Who knows what Britain will be like in 50 years, it may be booming but voters decided regaining sovereignty through Brexit was worth any short term economic pain abd would bring long term gains
    I very much doubt voters are going to be looking at a 50 year time horizon. They’ll be expecting something to show for it sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, Leavers are getting steadily more excited about the next downward twist of the corkscrew. I hope they’re prepared for the unpopularity that would be heading their way in that event.

    They don’t seem to have been prepared for any other post-Brexit developments though.
    That sonething they will want to see is a reduction in EU regulations and directives affecting the UK and a reduction in immigration from the EU which was why they voted Leave in the first place
    Why did the breaking point poster not feature EU citizens?

    image
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,902
    geoffw said:



    Scott_P said:
    KG-M and Channel 4 disappearing up their fundament there. Mogg's sanity and integrity shine through.
    No, that's ambition you're looking at.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a stupid question.

    He believes in Brexit because he believes in regaining sovereignty and control of our borders.

    That is not a matter of right or wrong but a question of ideology and belief
    Who knows what Britain will be like in 50 years, it may be booming but voters decided regaining sovereignty through Brexit was worth any short term economic pain abd would bring long term gains
    I very much doubt voters are going to be looking at a 50 year time horizon. They’ll be expecting something to show for it sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, Leavers are getting steadily more excited about the next downward twist of the corkscrew. I hope they’re prepared for the unpopularity that would be heading their way in that event.

    They don’t seem to have been prepared for any other post-Brexit developments though.
    That sonething they will want to see is a reduction in EU regulations and directives affecting the UK and a reduction in immigration from the EU which was why they voted Leave in the first place
    Why did the breaking point poster not feature EU citizens?

    image
    It was Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries to the EU in 2004 which saw the real rise in UKIP support.

    UKIP were on under 10% in 1999 at the European elections rising to 27% by 2014
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,120
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting theory bookseller.

    How long has it taken for Ontario to join the USA?

    Touché.

    Although of course Ontario hadn't been a member of the US, and thus never broke away and was waiting to re-join. We now have 40 years of positive membership of the EU under our belts. As time goes by, expect nostalgia to rejoin to grow into a potent force.
    We never originally joined the EEC in the first place, we joined EFTA which in retrospect is where we should have stayed
    We joined because being in the "outer seven" was unconducive to our needs.
    No we joined because Heath, like you was an EEC/EU Federalist ideologue who would have signed up straight away to the Euro too if he could, again just like you and had zero interest in our historical and cultural ties to the Commonwealth or USA either, again just like you.

    EFTA is where we correctly joined as it kept an economic relationship with Europe without the ideal of political unity of the Euro Federalists which was never something we were culturally interested in
    Why did Macmillan try to join? As Geoffrey Howe said in his resignation speech:

    "As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.

    "The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs."
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Fenman said:

    Boris is still living in the foreign secretaries official residence. It seems he doesn't understand that exit means exit.

    Normal procedure for leaving official residences, Hunt and No. 10 are comfortable with it, apparently.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,120
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a stupid question.

    He believes in Brexit because he believes in regaining sovereignty and control of our borders.

    That is not a matter of right or wrong but a question of ideology and belief
    Who knows what Britain will be like in 50 years, it may be booming but voters decided regaining sovereignty through Brexit was worth any short term economic pain abd would bring long term gains
    I very much doubt voters are going to be looking at a 50 year time horizon. They’ll be expecting something to show for it sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, Leavers are getting steadily more excited about the next downward twist of the corkscrew. I hope they’re prepared for the unpopularity that would be heading their way in that event.

    They don’t seem to have been prepared for any other post-Brexit developments though.
    That sonething they will want to see is a reduction in EU regulations and directives affecting the UK and a reduction in immigration from the EU which was why they voted Leave in the first place
    Why did the breaking point poster not feature EU citizens?

    image
    It was Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries to the EU in 2004 which saw the real rise in UKIP support.

    UKIP were on under 10% in 1999 at the European elections rising to 27% by 2014
    It's true that for the first time, immigration became associated in people's minds with EU membership, but it's a woefully blinkered and simplistic analysis to claim that free movement within the EU is the real root cause of the phenomenon of UKIP.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    27% of voters are pro capitalism and private free enterprise, 21% are anti capitalism and private free enterprise, 39% of voters are neutral or undecided on a new poll

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1020644317373829120

    Would one`s response not depend on the extent to which the government of the day kept private free enterprise under control? Mrs May`s Conservative Government seems hell-bent on letting private free enterprise decide the rules of the game. Examples - abolition of any real planning controls, promoting fracking etc

    Given the choices on offer, my answer would have to be Dunno, though I do know very well. Sloppy survey, I think.
    Compared to Osborne and Cameron, May, with her workers on boards plans and huge extra funds for the NHS and housing targets is less private free enterprise
    Wow, Mr HYUFD, just wowwww!!!!!!!! I haven`t seen this yet. Perhaps I just wasn`t looking hard enough? Or perhaps it comes into the same category of empty promises as the glorious sunlit uplands, that we shall see after Brexit (according to Mr Rees-Mogg) in fifty years time?

    Perhaps those who survive the civil unrest, the breakdown of society, the collapse of the economy (short term, for the next 50 years) and who manage to get all their wealth abroad into safe off-shore havens? The rest of us, not.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    F1: hmm. Ladbrokes has the King of the Road (pole, win, fastest lap) market up but it has multiple entries, whereas Vettel is the only possible winner (of course, no winner is a credible outcome, and odds-on). But he's 17. And he's already got pole with race win odds of about 1.6-1.7.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting theory bookseller.

    How long has it taken for Ontario to join the USA?

    Touché.

    Although of course Ontario hadn't been a member of the US, and thus never broke away and was waiting to re-join. We now have 40 years of positive membership of the EU under our belts. As time goes by, expect nostalgia to rejoin to grow into a yed
    We joined because being in the "outer seven" was unconducive to our needs.
    No we joined because Heath, like you was an EEC/EU Federalist ideologue who would have signed up straight away to the Euro too if he could, again just like you and had zero interest in our historical and cultural ties to the Commonwealth or USA either, again just like you.

    EFTA is where we correctly joined as it kept an economic relationship with Europe without the ideal of political unity of the Euro Federalists which was never something we were culturally interested in
    Why did Macmillan try to join? As Geoffrey Howe said in his resignation speech:

    "As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control ot less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs."
    Macmillan and Howe were both wrong, De Gaulle was absolutely right and understood us best when he vetoed our entry as we were a seafaring, Anglo Saxon nation with close links to the Commonwealth and United States who would have undermined the project of continental European unity as we have almost consistently done since our entry with vetoes and opt outs etc.

    The only reason historically we have been interested in European affairs is to prevent one country whether Spain, France or Germany becoming too powerful, we were more interested in creating our empire and building trading links with the rest of the world. In European terms we will trade with them but we belong on the periphery with Scandinavia, Russia and much of Eastern Europe and Turkey. We have never been at the heart of the European project like France, Germany, Italy or the Benelux nations.

    As Churchill said European unity may be fine for those who were conquered by the Fascists but we stood alone and should not be part of it
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123
    edited July 2018
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    27% of voters are pro capitalism and private free enterprise, 21% are anti capitalism and private free enterprise, 39% of voters are neutral or undecided on a new poll

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1020644317373829120

    Would one`s response not depend on the extent to which the government of the day kept private free enterprise under control? Mrs May`s Conservative Government seems hell-bent on letting private free enterprise decide the rules of the game. Examples - abolition of any real planning controls, promoting fracking etc

    Given the choices on offer, my answer would have to be Dunno, though I do know very well. Sloppy survey, I think.
    Compared to Osborne and Cameron, May, with her workers on boards plans and huge extra funds for the NHS and housing targets is less private free enterprise
    Wow, Mr HYUFD, just wowwww!!!!!!!! I haven`t seen this yet. Perhaps I just wasn`t looking hard enough? Or perhaps it comes into the same category of empty promises as the glorious sunlit uplands, that we shall see after Brexit (according to Mr Rees-Mogg) in fifty years time?

    Perhaps those who survive the civil unrest, the breakdown of society, the collapse of the economy (short term, for the next 50 years) and who manage to get all their wealth abroad into safe off-shore havens? The rest of us, not.
    You mean the country where unemployment is half the level Labour left, inflation is less than Labour left and the deficit is lower than Labour left as now? The country too which is going to regain control of our borders after Blair let the floodgates open in 2004?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    edited July 2018
    Betting Post

    F1: Safety car is 2.3 on Ladbrokes. And No Safety Car is 2.2 on Betfair.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited July 2018

    F1: hmm. Ladbrokes has the King of the Road (pole, win, fastest lap) market up but it has multiple entries, whereas Vettel is the only possible winner (of course, no winner is a credible outcome, and odds-on). But he's 17. And he's already got pole with race win odds of about 1.6-1.7.

    Fastest lap almost never goes to the race winner these days, due to tyre management conflicting with the ever-reducing fuel load during the race. It will most likely go to someone out of position (Hamilton, Ricciardo) or someone trying a contra-strategy making a late stop for tyres.

    Incidentally there’s a high chance of a two-stop race tomorrow, the ultrasoft qualifying tyres being good for only a handful of laps and no supersoft here. Verstappen did try and go through P2 on the softs but was too slow and had to go again on the ultras at the end of the session.

    Teams have plenty of spare tyres of the race as P3 was wet.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176


    . . .
    But here's a good example of a leaver wriggling and being evasive.

    Mrs May a leaver? I don't think so. The takeaway from Chequers is that for May and her coterie of remainers a bad deal is better than no deal. Apparently she expects all members of Cabinet to spend at least one day over the summer to campaign on the media or otherwise for Chequers.

  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    I don't know who Adonis spoke to in Northern Ireland, but having crossed the border it would be quite impossible to maintain a hard border. We could do a light touch border, reintroduce checks, but the border is completely porous
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    Amazing.

    The DUP mindset has baffled the finest minds who have studied it for fifty years, yet a third-rate failed academic, failed SPAD, failed educational reformer, failed Minister and failed Parliamentarian spends three days there and he gets it instantly.

    Or - just maybe - he's not quite understood it and yet is utterly convinced he does.

    Given his record in education, I'm betting on the latter...
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Betting Post

    F1: Safety car is 2.3 on Ladbrokes. And No Safety Car is 2.2 on Betfair.

    Free money!!!!!
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    No deal Brexit would cement the already-entrenched views of the public. Since Leavers are much older than Remainers, that would be a major long term problem for the headbangers.
    The currently entrenched views is that there is a small minority passionate either way of which you are one and a large majority in the middle who could live with either scenario and have bigger concerns.

    Time and inertia are not on your side as even with the young those who are passionate fans of the EU are a minority not a majority.

    As time goes on people will concentrate more on their other concerns like the NHS and less on the constitutional matters of our neighbours.

    Plus today's young have grown up in the EU it's all they have ever known and even then the fans of it are a minority. Once we've left they'll start to experience a new normal.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    I don't know who Adonis spoke to in Northern Ireland
    Quite possibly it was mostly himself.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,120

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    No deal Brexit would cement the already-entrenched views of the public. Since Leavers are much older than Remainers, that would be a major long term problem for the headbangers.
    The currently entrenched views is that there is a small minority passionate either way of which you are one and a large majority in the middle who could live with either scenario and have bigger concerns.

    Time and inertia are not on your side as even with the young those who are passionate fans of the EU are a minority not a majority.

    As time goes on people will concentrate more on their other concerns like the NHS and less on the constitutional matters of our neighbours.

    Plus today's young have grown up in the EU it's all they have ever known and even then the fans of it are a minority. Once we've left they'll start to experience a new normal.
    The "common rule book" will be a matter for us, not just our neighbours, and we'll want to have a say in it. Inertia is not on your side.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Sandpit, indeed.

    It's possible Vettel could get King of the Road. Even if not, the win aspect is very hedgeable, so if you can hedge the fastest lap bit too, it could be all green.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,123
    edited July 2018

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    No deal Brexit would cement the already-entrenched views of the public. Since Leavers are much older than Remainers, that would be a major long term problem for the headbangers.
    The currently entrenched views is that there is a small minority passionate either way of which you are one and a large majority in the middle who could live with either scenario and have bigger concerns.

    Time and inertia are not on your side as even with the young those who are passionate fans of the EU are a minority not a majority.

    As time goes on people will concentrate more on their other concerns like the NHS and less on the constitutional matters of our neighbours.

    Plus today's young have grown up in the EU it's all they have ever known and even then the fans of it are a minority. Once we've left they'll start to experience a new normal.
    The "common rule book" will be a matter for us, not just our neighbours, and we'll want to have a say in it. Inertia is not on your side.
    Even then once we have brought immigration under greater control we could do that to some extent in the single market and not the full EU, if we don't like some rules we could not implement them as Norway does not implement 25% of EU laws
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    No deal Brexit would cement the already-entrenched views of the public. Since Leavers are much older than Remainers, that would be a major long term problem for the headbangers.
    The currently entrenched views is that there is a small minority passionate either way of which you are one and a large majority in the middle who could live with either scenario and have bigger concerns.

    Time and inertia are not on your side as even with the young those who are passionate fans of the EU are a minority not a majority.

    As time goes on people will concentrate more on their other concerns like the NHS and less on the constitutional matters of our neighbours.

    Plus today's young have grown up in the EU it's all they have ever known and even then the fans of it are a minority. Once we've left they'll start to experience a new normal.
    The "common rule book" will be a matter for us, not just our neighbours, and we'll want to have a say in it. Inertia is not on your side.
    We never had a say in it even as EU members. What Germany wanted went.

    At least this way it only affects products and they can't be punitive to our global financial and professional sectors.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Thanks all for your kind words.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Thanks all for your kind words.

    My condolences.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    Thanks all for your kind words.

    My commiserations also (I've only just caught up with the thread). It sounds as if your dad was quite a character. Best wishes to all the family.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,041
    edited July 2018
    The DUP will be the biggest catalyst for a united Ireland. We all knew they were a bit mad, now we know they are thick as well! Amazing stuff!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059
    edited July 2018
    Elliot said:

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    No deal Brexit would cement the already-entrenched views of the public. Since Leavers are much older than Remainers, that would be a major long term problem for the headbangers.
    The currently entrenched views is that there is a small minority passionate either way of which you are one and a large majority in the middle who could live with either scenario and have bigger concerns.

    Time and inertia are not on your side as even with the young those who are passionate fans of the EU are a minority not a majority.

    As time goes on people will concentrate more on their other concerns like the NHS and less on the constitutional matters of our neighbours.

    Plus today's young have grown up in the EU it's all they have ever known and even then the fans of it are a minority. Once we've left they'll start to experience a new normal.
    The "common rule book" will be a matter for us, not just our neighbours, and we'll want to have a say in it. Inertia is not on your side.
    We never had a say in it even as EU members. What Germany wanted went.

    At least this way it only affects products and they can't be punitive to our global financial and professional sectors.
    Elliott, this is the kind of comment that I find most annoying on PB. It comes from a position of smug and supreme ignorance.

    You have no idea about certification processes, about the interplay between the ISO, the EU and the UK. You have no idea about what "common rule book" exists in financial or professional services. I suspect you don't even know what goes into the process of getting consumer electronics CE certified.

    Instead you have lazy prejudice.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    murali_s said:

    The DUP will be the biggest catalyst for a united Ireland. We all knew they were a bit mad, now we know they are thick as well! Amazing stuff!
    Surely even the DUP wouldn't invade the Republic? If they do, we're really facing the end of days!
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    murali_s said:

    The DUP will be the biggest catalyst for a united Ireland. We all knew they were a bit mad, now we know they are thick as well! Amazing stuff!
    Andrew Adonis possibly has had the very worst case of Brexit Derangement Syndrome
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Elliot said:

    The bigger reason why hard Brexit won't lead to rejoining is that any turmoil will be short term.

    There is no long term reason we can't be a successful independent nation. The problems are in disentangling us from the current mess.

    No deal Brexit would cement the already-entrenched views of the public. Since Leavers are much older than Remainers, that would be a major long term problem for the headbangers.
    The currently entrenched views is that there is a small minority passionate either way of which you are one and a large majority in the middle who could live with either scenario and have bigger concerns.

    Time and inertia are not on your side as even with the young those who are passionate fans of the EU are a minority not a majority.

    As time goes on people will concentrate more on their other concerns like the NHS and less on the constitutional matters of our neighbours.

    Plus today's young have grown up in the EU it's all they have ever known and even then the fans of it are a minority. Once we've left they'll start to experience a new normal.
    The "common rule book" will be a matter for us, not just our neighbours, and we'll want to have a say in it. Inertia is not on your side.
    We never had a say in it even as EU members. What Germany wanted went.

    At least this way it only affects products and they can't be punitive to our global financial and professional sectors.
    That's complete nonsense. The UK was very influential in the drafting of EU regulations. It isn't perhaps the biggest issue related to Europe, but giving up our say on regs that we are compelled to follow either as part of a deal or for pragmatic reasons if we don't get a deal is definitely a downgrade.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    F1: just returned and Ladbrokes seem to be rejigging their odds on many markets.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    Judging by his twitter feed, I doubt if Adonis met any DUP voters, but still felt confident enough to pronounce.
This discussion has been closed.