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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Best of luck today Theresa – you are going to need it

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  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited July 2018

    Mrs C, I finished ahead at a Grand Prix! And there was much rejoicing.

    Congratulations! I have to confess to being rather surprised though, I thought that you were an F1 betting expert and regularly cleaned out the bookies with your F1 acumen. I mean, they just go round and round and cannot get past the one at the front so bet on whoever starts the race - how hard can it be? ;)

    Corbyn would not undo our departure from the EU.

    I am passed that Mr Dancer. I am convinced that the only way to kill off the Brexit madness infecting the country is to let it happen. Either we will get 1957's sunny uplands

    :D:D:D

    or we will get an economic mess that will make it clear what a huge mistake the whole thing was. Either way we will know and this whole stupid debate and schism will end.

    If Mrs May shows the political bravery to actually say "We have no choice but to stay in" and then makes it stick via Remain loving MPs then I will be so pleased, but I do not expect it to happen.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,307

    Mrs C, I finished ahead at a Grand Prix! And there was much rejoicing.

    ...

    Mr. B, got to admit, I always forget about the Hockenheim layout and have to dredge it from my memory of old(ish) videogames. Tight and twisty. Shouldn't be much overtaking. Weather forecast suggests rain is possible. May be best to leave it a bit until the weather forecast firms up.

    Could be quite tasty with this year's cars. Corners which were taken near flat are going to be more of a challenge.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Mrs C, backing Corbyn is to move from bad to worse, in my view.

    Not only that, he's not even a fan of the EU.

    That is not the point Mr Dancer. I will not vote for a party that is actively damaging to the UK. To me, the behaviour of the current Tory party proves that they are utterly incompetent to govern and need to be removed.

    I suspect that Corbyn and Very Old Labour will also be quite useless, but the choice is between proven incompetents and potential incompetents.

    It is a lousy choice, but for now, at this moment in time, Corbyn (barely) gets the benefit of the doubt.
    I am not sure how anyone could vote for either party right now - but the Lib Dems instead?

    pfff - ok locally but not for anything else.

    Might have to sit the next one out

    What a mess
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Having seen full video of junker, he is either a very very ill man or was absolutely steaming drunk, neither of which are suitable for his role.

    If he's ill there's no reason why he can't fill the role, disabled people in a wheelchair could do the role.

    If he's drunk then he's not suitable.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Floater said:

    Mrs C, backing Corbyn is to move from bad to worse, in my view.

    Not only that, he's not even a fan of the EU.

    That is not the point Mr Dancer. I will not vote for a party that is actively damaging to the UK. To me, the behaviour of the current Tory party proves that they are utterly incompetent to govern and need to be removed.

    I suspect that Corbyn and Very Old Labour will also be quite useless, but the choice is between proven incompetents and potential incompetents.

    It is a lousy choice, but for now, at this moment in time, Corbyn (barely) gets the benefit of the doubt.
    I am not sure how anyone could vote for either party right now - but the Lib Dems instead?

    pfff - ok locally but not for anything else.

    Might have to sit the next one out

    What a mess
    I would vote for the LibDems if they still existed, but they seem to have vanished without trace.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Realistically it's difficult to see this administration surviving. If it's true that an ex Tory leader consorted with an American President to trash our Prime Minister then this must be a trip through unchartered waters.

    The Party must be in complete turmoil. I wonder whether even the fear of Corbyn will be able to hold it together? It easy to imagine the civilised and sensible making the decision to split from the loonies and the c**ts. This has come at a bad time. The country is concentrated but after the exit from the World cup the mood is febrile. What's the betting it all falls apart next week?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,307
    Interesting.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/i-think-they-like-me-a-lot-in-the-uk-trump-says-as-he-faces-mass-protests-in-britain/2018/07/12/d88c3118-7f01-11e8-a63f-7b5d2aba7ac5_story.html
    The U.S. contingent expected the story to post Friday morning and was startled to leave the dinner Thursday and see it online. Sanders told the British government about the interview but thought it would be somewhat more positive, an official said.

    White House officials were scrambling for what to say to May on Friday. “There’s no way Trump will apologize,” a senior U.S. official said. “But we also don’t want to blow everything up.”...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    The Trump interview was pre recorded at the NATO summit and before he came to the UK and met TM.

    It has been played today after the Blenheim Palace dinner giving the real impression this was his opinion today.

    Questions need to be asked of Boris, Farage and Ton Newton Dunns role in this as it seems very staged to me

    It’s customary for visiting heads of state/government to give interviews to newspapers the day before they arrive. The only person with “questions to answer” is Trump.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Floater said:

    Mrs C, backing Corbyn is to move from bad to worse, in my view.
    Not only that, he's not even a fan of the EU.

    That is not the point Mr Dancer. I will not vote for a party that is actively damaging to the UK. To me, the behaviour of the current Tory party proves that they are utterly incompetent to govern and need to be removed.
    I suspect that Corbyn and Very Old Labour will also be quite useless, but the choice is between proven incompetents and potential incompetents.

    It is a lousy choice, but for now, at this moment in time, Corbyn (barely) gets the benefit of the doubt.
    I am not sure how anyone could vote for either party right now - but the Lib Dems instead?
    pfff - ok locally but not for anything else.
    Might have to sit the next one out
    What a mess
    I would vote for the LibDems if they still existed, but they seem to have vanished without trace.
    Very kind of you Miss Bev, but I can assure you that we the Lib Dems do still exist. In fact, we picked up another local government seat from the Conservatives last night.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    This sounds pretty desperate for Theresa May;

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/13/conservative-mps-asked-withdraw-letters-demanding-vote-confidence/

    What happens if Brady gets 48 letters next week (with recess around coming up soon) ?

    Does the VONC still take place while Parliament isn't sitting? Or does it have to wait until September?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Mrs C, I've made plenty of misjudgements this year but also had quite a sizeable run of bad luck too. Alas.

    I'm afraid I remain baffled. Let us suppose you're right, we leave the EU and economic woe occurs. How does it help us to then have a Marxist Chancellor, and a man who takes the word of Putin over the British state as PM?

    Mr. Xenon, sounds like the EU will be determining trade deals for us. Not 100% sure, though.

    Mr. B, if it rains. Odds are it'll be dry. I'd like some rain, though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754

    A betting point to note for next Conservative leader/next Prime Minister. If you believe that Donald Trump's intervention has been co-ordinated with hardline Leavers, it appears that Boris Johnson is being lined up as their candidate.

    IDS was behind it.

    He used his friendship with John Bolton to persuade Trump to make this intervention.
    When he was leader of the opposition IDS used to enjoy undermining the government by telling tales about how Blair was plotting to create a Euro army and undermine NATO, and he was the first UK cheerleader for the Iraq war. Now he treats a PM from his own party the same way.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/1363947/Britain-should-support-Iraqi-rebels-says-Duncan-Smith.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Mr. P, shafting the self-employed over National Insurance was not sensible.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Having seen full video of junker, he is either a very very ill man or was absolutely steaming drunk, neither of which are suitable for his role.

    I don't think JCJ will get a second commission next year. Timmermans could be worth a punt as his successor. An ex-spook with impeccable Russosceptic credentials might be what the EU needs as it militarises.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Floater said:

    Having seen full video of junker, he is either a very very ill man or was absolutely steaming drunk, neither of which are suitable for his role.

    Option B - - again
    In the clip I saw, Juncker seemed unsteady on his pins but not in a drunk way; there was no side-to-side swaying. He also seemed to be limping.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    GIN1138 said:

    This sounds pretty desperate for Theresa May;

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/13/conservative-mps-asked-withdraw-letters-demanding-vote-confidence/

    What happens if Brady gets 48 letters next week (with recess around coming up soon) ?

    Does the VONC still take place while Parliament isn't sitting? Or does it have to wait until September?

    I cannot answer that but it seems a good way for the ERG to shoot themselves in the foot and cement TM in place for another year
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    The hard Brexiteers - Boris, DD, Fox and others - have in the two years since the referendum utterly failed to come up with any sort of plan for a hard Brexit which works.

    They are now, IMO, scared of the proposal which May has come up with (which has not even been agreed to by the EU and may well not be) because any sort of deal which aligns us closely with the EU will highlight the fact that we will be following rules without any input into them. Eventually people might begin to ask whether it might not make sense to have a say in those rules and go back into the EU. That is what they are scared of - that the failure of their Brexit vision brings into stark relief the stupidity of "vassalage", in JRM's pompous phrase.

    The Brexiteers have engineered a situation where Britain will be in the position of being taxed - or rather ruled - without any representation. Not what they promised. A loss of control rather than taking it back. And it all stems from their utter failure to come up with a coherent alternative plan for extracting Britain, slowly and sensibly and in a sober, grown up and friendly way (the only way Brexit should have been managed), from the EU - rather than all this "with one bound he was free" nonsense.

    So, much as I dislike many aspects of the EU and despite some very serious reservations about the EU's direction of travel and default instincts, I do think we should be thinking seriously about the Remain option while we still have the chance.

    The other options: a crash out or no deal (on the assumption that May's proposal will get nowhere) will have some very serious consequences for us all. Any responsible government has a duty to step back from the brink not just push the barrel over the edge just because of a referendum. It has a duty to say why the no deal options are so unpalatable that people should be given the chance to think about whether they really do want to go ahead.

    All this ideological baloney about the will of the people is so very unEnglish and unpragmatic. We're not some Eastern Europe country with dictators running round in uniforms demanding oaths of loyalty, for heaven's sake. And as Keynes said: "When the facts change, I change my mind."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    Nigelb said:

    Having seen full video of junker, he is either a very very ill man or was absolutely steaming drunk, neither of which are suitable for his role.

    No, I think it was genuinely hip and back problems (he had a wheelchair in tow).
    He's quoted as saying that he'd rather he were drunk.
    The bit of the video where he’s trying to walk forwards does look like his movement is restricted by pain rather than being uncoordinated.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701

    A betting point to note for next Conservative leader/next Prime Minister. If you believe that Donald Trump's intervention has been co-ordinated with hardline Leavers, it appears that Boris Johnson is being lined up as their candidate.

    IDS was behind it.

    He used his friendship with John Bolton to persuade Trump to make this intervention.
    When he was leader of the opposition IDS used to enjoy undermining the government by telling tales about how Blair was plotting to create a Euro army and undermine NATO, and he was the first UK cheerleader for the Iraq war. Now he treats a PM from his own party the same way.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/1363947/Britain-should-support-Iraqi-rebels-says-Duncan-Smith.html
    IDS has a history of undermining Tory PMs.

    He's a shit of the highest order, he did much to help Blair become PM, and he's doing the same for Corbyn.

    If Labour take Chingford and Woodford Green at the next election I'm classing that as a Tory gain.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I'm afraid I remain baffled. Let us suppose you're right, we leave the EU and economic woe occurs. How does it help us to then have a Marxist Chancellor, and a man who takes the word of Putin over the British state as PM?

    It does not help us, but neither does re-electing a bunch whose main objectives are sticking knives in each other while Rome burns.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    This sounds pretty desperate for Theresa May;

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/13/conservative-mps-asked-withdraw-letters-demanding-vote-confidence/

    What happens if Brady gets 48 letters next week (with recess around coming up soon) ?

    Does the VONC still take place while Parliament isn't sitting? Or does it have to wait until September?

    I cannot answer that but it seems a good way for the ERG to shoot themselves in the foot and cement TM in place for another year
    If it's a foregone conclusion TM wins the VONC why are the Whips so worried they are asking people to withdraw their letters?

    It sounds like desperate behaviour from people who know she wouldn't win?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Miss Cyclefree, not sure that's true. A David white paper was leaked online (maybe ConHome?) yesterday. It's essentially the Canada deal with extra bits.

    The May white paper is not the creation of Davis et al. but May et al (the insinuation is guided/dictated by pro-EU Civil Service types). It's not the work of any type of Leaver, but Remainers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    GIN1138 said:

    This sounds pretty desperate for Theresa May;

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/13/conservative-mps-asked-withdraw-letters-demanding-vote-confidence/

    What happens if Brady gets 48 letters next week (with recess around coming up soon) ?

    Does the VONC still take place while Parliament isn't sitting? Or does it have to wait until September?

    The VONC will take place within 10 days when Parliament isn't sitting.

    Tory MPs will be expected to turn up and vote or send proxies.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,898
    Somewhat unfortunate timing:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44818316

    Chinese surplus with US hits record. I can see trump doubling down on tariffs.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This sounds pretty desperate for Theresa May;

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/13/conservative-mps-asked-withdraw-letters-demanding-vote-confidence/

    What happens if Brady gets 48 letters next week (with recess around coming up soon) ?

    Does the VONC still take place while Parliament isn't sitting? Or does it have to wait until September?

    I cannot answer that but it seems a good way for the ERG to shoot themselves in the foot and cement TM in place for another year
    If it's a foregone conclusion TM wins the VONC why are the Whips so worried they are asking people to withdraw their letters?

    It sounds like desperate behaviour from people who know she wouldn't win?
    Not really. Just think they see it as an unnecessary distraction at the moment
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222

    Mr. P, shafting the self-employed over National Insurance was not sensible.

    Why should the 'structure above' influence one's remittance to the exchequer ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    Tom Newton Dunn says interview was done in the US embassy in Brussels and thinks he will be much different with TM today
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,898
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This sounds pretty desperate for Theresa May;

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/13/conservative-mps-asked-withdraw-letters-demanding-vote-confidence/

    What happens if Brady gets 48 letters next week (with recess around coming up soon) ?

    Does the VONC still take place while Parliament isn't sitting? Or does it have to wait until September?

    I cannot answer that but it seems a good way for the ERG to shoot themselves in the foot and cement TM in place for another year
    If it's a foregone conclusion TM wins the VONC why are the Whips so worried they are asking people to withdraw their letters?

    It sounds like desperate behaviour from people who know she wouldn't win?
    The vote even happening would show the party divided (just in case anyone hasn't noticed). And there is a real risk that she might win unconvincingly. It is not in the party's or the country's interests for this to happen before the deal is done in October.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Mrs C, Labour is also far from united, and its leadership is alarmingly comfortable being friends with the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah, whilst aping the failed economics of socialism.

    An election isn't a choice of approving or not of the Conservatives. Right now, they're divided bitterly and incompetent at governance.

    That doesn't mean the alternative isn't worse. Much worse.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471



    Mr. Xenon, sounds like the EU will be determining trade deals for us. Not 100% sure, though.

    Well if that's the case then the Brexiteers are correct to call this deal a steaming turd and turf her out. We can't agree to that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited July 2018

    A betting point to note for next Conservative leader/next Prime Minister. If you believe that Donald Trump's intervention has been co-ordinated with hardline Leavers, it appears that Boris Johnson is being lined up as their candidate.

    IDS was behind it.

    He used his friendship with John Bolton to persuade Trump to make this intervention.
    When he was leader of the opposition IDS used to enjoy undermining the government by telling tales about how Blair was plotting to create a Euro army and undermine NATO, and he was the first UK cheerleader for the Iraq war. Now he treats a PM from his own party the same way.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/1363947/Britain-should-support-Iraqi-rebels-says-Duncan-Smith.html
    Full marks to the Tory Party. There aren't many with a CV like that-plus lying about his education - that could have risen to the heights of leading his party.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Mr. Pulpstar, the self-employed have no guaranteed sick pay or parental leave (intriguingly, and probably contrary to all reason, Miliband had actually promised to do something about that). Asking them to pay more tax, to equal that of the employed, whilst they lack the benefits of the employed, is ridiculous and wrong.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:

    This sounds pretty desperate for Theresa May;

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/13/conservative-mps-asked-withdraw-letters-demanding-vote-confidence/

    What happens if Brady gets 48 letters next week (with recess around coming up soon) ?

    Does the VONC still take place while Parliament isn't sitting? Or does it have to wait until September?

    The VONC will take place within 10 days when Parliament isn't sitting.

    Tory MPs will be expected to turn up and vote or send proxies.
    I see. Thanks TSE. :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701

    Miss Cyclefree, not sure that's true. A David white paper was leaked online (maybe ConHome?) yesterday. It's essentially the Canada deal with extra bits.

    The May white paper is not the creation of Davis et al. but May et al (the insinuation is guided/dictated by pro-EU Civil Service types). It's not the work of any type of Leaver, but Remainers.

    As has been pointed out repeatedly that Davis white paper repeatedly crossed the EU red lines something Davis might have realised if he had spent more than 4 hours with Barnier.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,635

    Miss Cyclefree, not sure that's true. A David white paper was leaked online (maybe ConHome?) yesterday. It's essentially the Canada deal with extra bits.

    The May white paper is not the creation of Davis et al. but May et al (the insinuation is guided/dictated by pro-EU Civil Service types). It's not the work of any type of Leaver, but Remainers.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-the-alternative-brexit-white-paper-a-draft-from-dexeu-1-mutual-recognition-not-ongoing-harmonisation.html
    Is the DExEU paper that was rejected by the PM. As you say it is based on the Canada/EU deal but with more on financial services.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Cyclefree said:

    The hard Brexiteers - Boris, DD, Fox and others - have in the two years since the referendum utterly failed to come up with any sort of plan for a hard Brexit which works.

    They are now, IMO, scared of the proposal which May has come up with (which has not even been agreed to by the EU and may well not be) because any sort of deal which aligns us closely with the EU will highlight the fact that we will be following rules without any input into them. Eventually people might begin to ask whether it might not make sense to have a say in those rules and go back into the EU. That is what they are scared of - that the failure of their Brexit vision brings into stark relief the stupidity of "vassalage", in JRM's pompous phrase.

    The Brexiteers have engineered a situation where Britain will be in the position of being taxed - or rather ruled - without any representation. Not what they promised. A loss of control rather than taking it back. And it all stems from their utter failure to come up with a coherent alternative plan for extracting Britain, slowly and sensibly and in a sober, grown up and friendly way (the only way Brexit should have been managed), from the EU - rather than all this "with one bound he was free" nonsense.

    So, much as I dislike many aspects of the EU and despite some very serious reservations about the EU's direction of travel and default instincts, I do think we should be thinking seriously about the Remain option while we still have the chance.

    The other options: a crash out or no deal (on the assumption that May's proposal will get nowhere) will have some very serious consequences for us all. Any responsible government has a duty to step back from the brink not just push the barrel over the edge just because of a referendum. It has a duty to say why the no deal options are so unpalatable that people should be given the chance to think about whether they really do want to go ahead.

    All this ideological baloney about the will of the people is so very unEnglish and unpragmatic. We're not some Eastern Europe country with dictators running round in uniforms demanding oaths of loyalty, for heaven's sake. And as Keynes said: "When the facts change, I change my mind."

    The facts haven’t changed. Some people have belatedly recognised them.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    That doesn't mean the alternative isn't worse. Much worse.

    It's not apparent that Corbyn would be worse than whatever this is now. As Foxy observed, at least Corbyn would attempt to share the now inevitable economic pain of Brexit on a more equitable basis.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Mr. Eagles, May's claiming her white paper includes remaining in the single market for goods without (in her view) accepting freedom of movement.

    If you condemn the Davis white paper for that, then you must also condemn May's.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222

    Mr. Pulpstar, the self-employed have no guaranteed sick pay or parental leave (intriguingly, and probably contrary to all reason, Miliband had actually promised to do something about that). Asking them to pay more tax, to equal that of the employed, whilst they lack the benefits of the employed, is ridiculous and wrong.

    These are not benefits provided by the blimmin' state.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    edited July 2018
    Mr. Ace, ha. Socialists always promise to tax the rich. The rich will either emigrate or be taxed to extinction. And then the middle class will be taxed. And before you can say "Comrades, we must all make sacrifices for the good of the Party" the vast majority will be paying more in tax.

    The socialist experiment fails every time it happens. It's the essence of madness to continue committing the same folly and pretending it might be different this time because the earlier attempts weren't 'real socialism'.

    Edited extra bit: Churchill said:
    "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2018

    Miss Cyclefree, not sure that's true. A David white paper was leaked online (maybe ConHome?) yesterday. It's essentially the Canada deal with extra bits.

    The May white paper is not the creation of Davis et al. but May et al (the insinuation is guided/dictated by pro-EU Civil Service types). It's not the work of any type of Leaver, but Remainers.

    As has been pointed out repeatedly that Davis white paper repeatedly crossed the EU red lines something Davis might have realised if he had spent more than 4 hours with Barnier.
    As with Chequers the Davis plan would have been our starting position for negotiations.

    Basically if they'd started with the Davis plan and through negotiations ended at the Chequers plan I could live with it.

    Unfortunately they've decided to START with Chequers which means god only knows where they finish up...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Miss Cyclefree, not sure that's true. A David white paper was leaked online (maybe ConHome?) yesterday. It's essentially the Canada deal with extra bits.

    The May white paper is not the creation of Davis et al. but May et al (the insinuation is guided/dictated by pro-EU Civil Service types). It's not the work of any type of Leaver, but Remainers.

    I know that. But Davis, Fox and Johnson have been in government for nearly 2 years and they have come up with nothing workable. It is not surprising that May has come up with something. The Leavers are, I'm afraid, very good indeed at saying what they are against - but utterly useless at coming up with their own practical workable plan which has a realistic chance of being accepted by those who need to accept it.

    So if the choice is - exit with no deal - or Remain, I am seriously leaning towards Remain. I think it a total abdication of responsibility to allow the country to continue towards a crash out deal with all that that likely implies. Pointing to a referendum nearly 3 years earlier when people were told that leaving would be easy and would have no consequences even if there was no deal is not, I think, a good enough answer. And I suspect that those who lose their jobs will think so too - even if they may have voted to Leave. They will say that they did not vote for this and will punish the politicians in charge. Now, I don't care about the Tories. But I do care about my country and I don't want it heading into potential disaster.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Mr. Pulpstar, I don't care.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    GIN1138 said:

    Miss Cyclefree, not sure that's true. A David white paper was leaked online (maybe ConHome?) yesterday. It's essentially the Canada deal with extra bits.

    The May white paper is not the creation of Davis et al. but May et al (the insinuation is guided/dictated by pro-EU Civil Service types). It's not the work of any type of Leaver, but Remainers.

    As has been pointed out repeatedly that Davis white paper repeatedly crossed the EU red lines something Davis might have realised if he had spent more than 4 hours with Barnier.
    As with Chequers the Davis plan would have been our starting position for negotiations.

    Basically if they'd started with the Davis plan and through negotiations ended at the Chequers plan I could live with it.

    Unfortunately they've decided to START with Chequers which means god only knows where they finish up...
    With all the fury the deal is needed to be close to Chequers
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    GIN1138 said:

    Miss Cyclefree, not sure that's true. A David white paper was leaked online (maybe ConHome?) yesterday. It's essentially the Canada deal with extra bits.

    The May white paper is not the creation of Davis et al. but May et al (the insinuation is guided/dictated by pro-EU Civil Service types). It's not the work of any type of Leaver, but Remainers.

    As has been pointed out repeatedly that Davis white paper repeatedly crossed the EU red lines something Davis might have realised if he had spent more than 4 hours with Barnier.
    As with Chequers the Davis plan would have been our starting position for negotiations.

    Basically if they'd started with the Davis plan and through negotiations ended at the Chequers plan I could live with it.

    Unfortunately they've decided to START with Chequers which means god only knows where they finish up...
    David Davis is shit, he's a failure, he couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

    The Davis plan has been rejected by the EU before why waste their and our time?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Mr. Ace, ha. Socialists always promise to tax the rich. The rich will either emigrate or be taxed to extinction. And then the middle class will be taxed. And before you can say "Comrades, we must all make sacrifices for the good of the Party" the vast majority will be paying more in tax.

    The socialist experiment fails every time it happens. It's the essence of madness to continue committing the same folly and pretending it might be different this time because the earlier attempts weren't 'real socialism'.

    Edited extra bit: Churchill said:
    "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."

    Why are you banging on about socialism? The only vaguely socialist part of JC's program (nationalising rail) has already been pinched by May.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    The hard Brexiteers - Boris, DD, Fox and others - have in the two years since the referendum utterly failed to come up with any sort of plan for a hard Brexit which works.

    They are now, IMO, scared of the proposal which May has come up with (which has not even been agreed to by the EU and may well not be) because any sort of deal which aligns us closely with the EU will highlight the fact that we will be following rules without any input into them. Eventually people might begin to ask whether it might not make sense to have a say in those rules and go back into the EU. That is what they are scared of - that the failure of their Brexit vision brings into stark relief the stupidity of "vassalage", in JRM's pompous phrase.

    The Brexiteers have engineered a situation where Britain will be in the position of being taxed - or rather ruled - without any representation. Not what they promised. A loss of control rather than taking it back. And it all stems from their utter failure to come up with a coherent alternative plan for extracting Britain, slowly and sensibly and in a sober, grown up and friendly way (the only way Brexit should have been managed), from the EU - rather than all this "with one bound he was free" nonsense.

    So, much as I dislike many aspects of the EU and despite some very serious reservations about the EU's direction of travel and default instincts, I do think we should be thinking seriously about the Remain option while we still have the chance.

    The other options: a crash out or no deal (on the assumption that May's proposal will get nowhere) will have some very serious consequences for us all. Any responsible government has a duty to step back from the brink not just push the barrel over the edge just because of a referendum. It has a duty to say why the no deal options are so unpalatable that people should be given the chance to think about whether they really do want to go ahead.

    All this ideological baloney about the will of the people is so very unEnglish and unpragmatic. We're not some Eastern Europe country with dictators running round in uniforms demanding oaths of loyalty, for heaven's sake. And as Keynes said: "When the facts change, I change my mind."

    The facts haven’t changed. Some people have belatedly recognised them.
    I think some facts have changed. But you made this point yesterday and I responded. So I will leave it there.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Cyclefree said:

    The hard Brexiteers - Boris, DD, Fox and others - have in the two years since the referendum utterly failed to come up with any sort of plan for a hard Brexit which works.

    They are now, IMO, scared of the proposal which May has come up with (which has not even been agreed to by the EU and may well not be) because any sort of deal which aligns us closely with the EU will highlight the fact that we will be following rules without any input into them. Eventually people might begin to ask whether it might not make sense to have a say in those rules and go back into the EU. That is what they are scared of - that the failure of their Brexit vision brings into stark relief the stupidity of "vassalage", in JRM's pompous phrase.

    The Brexiteers have engineered a situation where Britain will be in the position of being taxed - or rather ruled - without any representation. Not what they promised. A loss of control rather than taking it back. And it all stems from their utter failure to come up with a coherent alternative plan for extracting Britain, slowly and sensibly and in a sober, grown up and friendly way (the only way Brexit should have been managed), from the EU - rather than all this "with one bound he was free" nonsense.

    So, much as I dislike many aspects of the EU and despite some very serious reservations about the EU's direction of travel and default instincts, I do think we should be thinking seriously about the Remain option while we still have the chance.

    The other options: a crash out or no deal (on the assumption that May's proposal will get nowhere) will have some very serious consequences for us all. Any responsible government has a duty to step back from the brink not just push the barrel over the edge just because of a referendum. It has a duty to say why the no deal options are so unpalatable that people should be given the chance to think about whether they really do want to go ahead.

    All this ideological baloney about the will of the people is so very unEnglish and unpragmatic. We're not some Eastern Europe country with dictators running round in uniforms demanding oaths of loyalty, for heaven's sake. And as Keynes said: "When the facts change, I change my mind."

    For the first time in the last two years this feels like a distinct possibility.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Now, I don't care about the Tories. But I do care about my country and I don't want it heading into potential disaster.

    :+1:
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    DavidL said:

    Somewhat unfortunate timing:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44818316

    Chinese surplus with US hits record. I can see trump doubling down on tariffs.

    The Chinese are providing the American consumer with very cheap goods, paid for in dollars printed by the Federal Reserve.

    Trump wants to remove this subsidy and have the US consumer pay more, thereby increasing inflation and interest rates. Does he know what he is doing?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Miss Cyclefree, I'm surprised you're acknowledging the Davis white paper then immediately saying there's no alternative plan to the May white paper.

    I can see why you and others prefer remaining to the May white paper. That may well be the point of it. Shortly after the referendum result I suggested it was possible the political class would 'negotiate' us an atrocious deal, then put it to the electorate with the alternative being to remain in, to force us to comply.

    I genuinely don't know how I'd vote in such a referendum.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Having seen full video of junker, he is either a very very ill man or was absolutely steaming drunk, neither of which are suitable for his role.

    Option B - - again
    In the clip I saw, Juncker seemed unsteady on his pins but not in a drunk way; there was no side-to-side swaying. He also seemed to be limping.
    He looked wasted to me - I work in the City seen enough of that over the years :-)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,635

    Mr. Ace, ha. Socialists always promise to tax the rich. The rich will either emigrate or be taxed to extinction. And then the middle class will be taxed. And before you can say "Comrades, we must all make sacrifices for the good of the Party" the vast majority will be paying more in tax.

    The socialist experiment fails every time it happens. It's the essence of madness to continue committing the same folly and pretending it might be different this time because the earlier attempts weren't 'real socialism'.

    Edited extra bit: Churchill said:
    "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."

    Thatcher said “The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    Cyclefree said:


    I think some facts have changed. But you made this point yesterday and I responded. So I will leave it there.

    The fact is Leavers have realised that what they said wouldn't happen, ie no deal, is now a distinct possibility.

    Leavers moan like whores about not respecting democracy they also won't be respecting democracy if Leave leads to no deal, something they told voters wouldn't happen and anyone who said otherwise was engaging in Project Fear.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    PClipp said:

    Very kind of you Miss Bev, but I can assure you that we the Lib Dems do still exist.

    Really? Where?
    PClipp said:

    In fact, we picked up another local government seat from the Conservatives last night.

    Congratulations.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    If they could have their time again, would the Leavers put DD, Boris, Fox and the Quiet Man anywhere near Brexit?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,898
    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    Somewhat unfortunate timing:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44818316

    Chinese surplus with US hits record. I can see trump doubling down on tariffs.

    The Chinese are providing the American consumer with very cheap goods, paid for in dollars printed by the Federal Reserve.

    Trump wants to remove this subsidy and have the US consumer pay more, thereby increasing inflation and interest rates. Does he know what he is doing?
    Who knows? As Robert has pointed out a trade deficit is essentially a consequence of having too low a savings ratio. Trump is running an extremely large fiscal deficit artificially boosting demand for these Chinese goods. The trade deficit is an inevitable consequence.

    His hope is that tariffs will encourage US producers to onshore output. It might but it is by no means a sure thing. The better approach would be to run a more conservative fiscal policy and support the Fed in tightening credit. But that might not be compatible with his desire to be re-elected.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2018

    If they could have their time again, would the Leavers put DD, Boris, Fox and the Quiet Man anywhere near Brexit?

    If they had their time again would the Tories allow Theresa May to become Prime Minister is the more pertinent question...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Cyclefree said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Rees Moog on R4 right now claiming that Obama was wrong to interfere, but Trump is right

    Fuqwit

    They have the gall to call themselves patriots.
    JRM is an utter c**t. How dare he and people like him side with those who seek to humiliate us and our PM. T May may be useless but for Trump to behave in the way he has is a total disgrace. He is not on our side. Britain has a trade surplus with the US. Any deal with the US would be an attempt by the US to reverse that i.e. to make things worse for us. The so-called special relationship is a fiction and it is long past the time for us to stop believing in this fairy story.

    I would really like May to stand up to Trump at the press conference and say that it is for her - and her Cabinet and the British Parliament - not any foreign leader to decide what is in Britain's interests and that one thing the British do not like are bullies, of whatever variety. She won't of course. But she should.
    The best post in this entire thread. Spot on in every way.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Nick Palmer is still peddling this lie that Corbyn has integrity and sincerity. It's just a blatant lie. Corbyn said he invited Hamas and Hezbollah to parliament as he likes to "speak to all sides" and "have dialogue". Clearly, as shown by his opposition to the Trump visit, he doesn't believe this. He invited Hamas and Hezbollah to parliament because he likes and supports them. Any left winger that believes in human rights is a disgrace if they support Corbyn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,898
    How did our politics become so infantilised? Neither side is better than the other.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    DavidL said:

    How did our politics become so infantilised? Neither side is better than the other.
    So far the numbers protesting against Trump seem pretty small?

    Are things supposed to liven up this afternoon?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Somehow, this feels like No Deal Brexit to me... ;)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-44819316
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    Thread.

    Not sure how John Swinney survives this.

    https://twitter.com/aidankerr___/status/1017713091247788032?s=21
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Mr. Ace, ha. Socialists always promise to tax the rich. The rich will either emigrate or be taxed to extinction. And then the middle class will be taxed. And before you can say "Comrades, we must all make sacrifices for the good of the Party" the vast majority will be paying more in tax.

    The socialist experiment fails every time it happens. It's the essence of madness to continue committing the same folly and pretending it might be different this time because the earlier attempts weren't 'real socialism'.

    Edited extra bit: Churchill said:
    "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."

    Theresa May has promised to increase taxes to pay for increased funding for the NHS. Do you think she will try to tax the rich first, or bypass all the steps you outline and go straight for increasing taxes on the vast majority?
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    I once saw a CNN caption which read "Shetland Islands, England" (admittedly 20 years ago).
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Mr. Ace, ha. Socialists always promise to tax the rich. The rich will either emigrate or be taxed to extinction. And then the middle class will be taxed. And before you can say "Comrades, we must all make sacrifices for the good of the Party" the vast majority will be paying more in tax.

    The socialist experiment fails every time it happens. It's the essence of madness to continue committing the same folly and pretending it might be different this time because the earlier attempts weren't 'real socialism'.

    Edited extra bit: Churchill said:
    "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."

    This is a well worn myth. Taxing people at high rates in a democracy hasn't made the rich extinct anywhere. Nor do the very rich emigrate in any large numbers. They have friends, family and lives they remain attached to. That is why the right wing newspaper have to use anecdotes rather than data over this. Plus the income levels of the very rich are booming, which means we can tax them at much higher rates and they would still see returns on their work much higher than under Thatcher.

    Socialism has failed in many places but that was little to do with tax. It was more because they failed to understand the advantages of well regulated markets compared to central planning and price fixing. When you combine high taxes, good regulation, generous welfare states and markets, it works great. See Scandinavia, Japan, Germany etc.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,898

    Thread.

    Not sure how John Swinney survives this.

    https://twitter.com/aidankerr___/status/1017713091247788032?s=21

    Even worse teachers warned him in advance that it did not have adequate safeguards to prevent such abuse and were told that they would use it in their classes or face disciplinary action. They would also face disciplinary action if they spoke out about it.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, ha. Socialists always promise to tax the rich. The rich will either emigrate or be taxed to extinction. And then the middle class will be taxed. And before you can say "Comrades, we must all make sacrifices for the good of the Party" the vast majority will be paying more in tax.

    The socialist experiment fails every time it happens. It's the essence of madness to continue committing the same folly and pretending it might be different this time because the earlier attempts weren't 'real socialism'.

    Edited extra bit: Churchill said:
    "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."

    Why are you banging on about socialism? The only vaguely socialist part of JC's program (nationalising rail) has already been pinched by May.
    "People's quantitative easing". If you think Corbyn will stop at his manifesto, I have a bridge to sell you.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Their relationship was never better, or was better one was never developed? :p
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    PClipp said:

    Very kind of you Miss Bev, but I can assure you that we the Lib Dems do still exist.

    Really? Where?
    PClipp said:

    In fact, we picked up another local government seat from the Conservatives last night.

    Congratulations.
    Thank you, Miss Bev. Lib Dems really do exist but are not always easy to spot. Lib Dems tend to get drowned out by the bitter infighting in the Conservative ranks, by the insults traded by international leaders, the disgrace and downfall of politicians from time to time - in fact all the froth and nonsense that passes for news in the British media. Personally, I look back with nostalgia to the days when the BBC was a public service, and the Guardian was still based in Manchester-
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Was that before or after they saw what he'd said the The Sun though? :D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    GIN1138 said:

    Was that before or after they saw what he'd said the The Sun though? :D
    Just now live on Sky at Chequers
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Mr. Elliot, when Hollande came to power in France, huge numbers of well-paid Frenchmen moved to London. The extent was so large that I believe London became the third largest 'French' city.

    Mr. Me, increasing taxes such as VAT apply to everyone. The mooted increase in National Insurance for the self-employed would have hit plenty of people who are not rich.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    How did our politics become so infantilised? Neither side is better than the other.
    So far the numbers protesting against Trump seem pretty small?

    Are things supposed to liven up this afternoon?
    The big protest is expected today, yes. Apparently members of Boris’ family are set to take part:
    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1017695816889327616?s=21
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    Very kind of you Miss Bev, but I can assure you that we the Lib Dems do still exist.

    Really? Where?
    PClipp said:

    In fact, we picked up another local government seat from the Conservatives last night.

    Congratulations.
    Thank you, Miss Bev. Lib Dems really do exist but are not always easy to spot. Lib Dems tend to get drowned out by the bitter infighting in the Conservative ranks, by the insults traded by international leaders, the disgrace and downfall of politicians from time to time - in fact all the froth and nonsense that passes for news in the British media. Personally, I look back with nostalgia to the days when the BBC was a public service, and the Guardian was still based in Manchester-
    Or the coalition government of Cameron and Clegg
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394

    A betting point to note for next Conservative leader/next Prime Minister. If you believe that Donald Trump's intervention has been co-ordinated with hardline Leavers, it appears that Boris Johnson is being lined up as their candidate.

    IDS was behind it.

    He used his friendship with John Bolton to persuade Trump to make this intervention.
    Whether this is true or not, Boris will be the Leaver candidate. JRM has always supported him and he won't stand if Boris does. DD does not want to be leader. And the rest have disgraced themselves.

    If May does fall, I think Boris is most likely to replace her as a result of recent events. Much will depend how convincing he is when he starts his public campaign for a CETA style Brexit.
    Boris will be lucky to get enough nominations to stand let alone make it to the final two.

    This week confirmed his deep unsuitability for the role.

    A British citizen died at the hands of Russian operations in the UK so he skipped the COBRA meeting and missed a summit of Balkan countries making the UK looking like even more of a joke.

    Tory MPs won't forget that and neither will the country.
    When even Tory voters split 43/39 over whether Boris is a liability, (let alone other parties' voters) you know it's over for him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,307
    Elliot said:

    Mr. Ace, ha. Socialists always promise to tax the rich. The rich will either emigrate or be taxed to extinction. And then the middle class will be taxed. And before you can say "Comrades, we must all make sacrifices for the good of the Party" the vast majority will be paying more in tax.

    The socialist experiment fails every time it happens. It's the essence of madness to continue committing the same folly and pretending it might be different this time because the earlier attempts weren't 'real socialism'.

    Edited extra bit: Churchill said:
    "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."

    This is a well worn myth. Taxing people at high rates in a democracy hasn't made the rich extinct anywhere. Nor do the very rich emigrate in any large numbers. They have friends, family and lives they remain attached to. That is why the right wing newspaper have to use anecdotes rather than data over this. Plus the income levels of the very rich are booming, which means we can tax them at much higher rates and they would still see returns on their work much higher than under Thatcher.

    Socialism has failed in many places but that was little to do with tax. It was more because they failed to understand the advantages of well regulated markets compared to central planning and price fixing. When you combine high taxes, good regulation, generous welfare states and markets, it works great. See Scandinavia, Japan, Germany etc.
    True, up to a point - though even Sweden found they had to row back on taxation at some point.
    And per capita welfare spending is lower in Japan than in the UK.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Mr. Elliot, when Hollande came to power in France, huge numbers of well-paid Frenchmen moved to London. The extent was so large that I believe London became the third largest 'French' city.

    Mr. Me, increasing taxes such as VAT apply to everyone. The mooted increase in National Insurance for the self-employed would have hit plenty of people who are not rich.

    London is the fifth largest French city and has been for a long time. Your "huge numbers" sounds like Trump. You have to speak in vague terms because the actual number is tiny.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    Baby blimp having to come down now after two hours.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Mr. Elliot, when Hollande came to power in France, huge numbers of well-paid Frenchmen moved to London. The extent was so large that I believe London became the third largest 'French' city.

    You might believe it but it's almost certainly not correct. The third largest city in France is Lyon with half a million people. There is no way there are more French people in London than that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    How did our politics become so infantilised? Neither side is better than the other.
    So far the numbers protesting against Trump seem pretty small?

    Are things supposed to liven up this afternoon?
    The big protest is expected today, yes. Apparently members of Boris’ family are set to take part:
    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1017695816889327616?s=21
    Rachel no doubt
  • GreenHeronGreenHeron Posts: 148

    Miss Cyclefree, not sure that's true. A David white paper was leaked online (maybe ConHome?) yesterday. It's essentially the Canada deal with extra bits.

    The May white paper is not the creation of Davis et al. but May et al (the insinuation is guided/dictated by pro-EU Civil Service types). It's not the work of any type of Leaver, but Remainers.

    As has been pointed out repeatedly that Davis white paper repeatedly crossed the EU red lines something Davis might have realised if he had spent more than 4 hours with Barnier.
    You say that as if it's Davis's fault that he's spent more time with Barnier. The alternative explanation is that he was sidelined by May/Robbins from day 1, which makes it very difficult to argue that the Brexiteers truly own whatever Brexit we eventually end up with.

    That aside, I think that the Chequers deal, if delivered, will be received reasonably well by the population as a whole and should May/Robbins be able to get it implemented then it can be sold as a triumph for them. The issue is, what happens if/when the EU waters it down further? Have May/Robbins got the guts or inclination to stand firm and threaten to walk away?

    As for Trump, I have no issue with him shooting his mouth off on Brexit, as I didn't with Obama. However, like Obama, he should not be surprised if his words have the opposite effect to that intended. Indeed, saying that the US will negotiate with the EU rather than the UK can be interpreted as suggesting we might as well remain. I'm sure ScottP and WillamGlenn are sharpening their pencils right now.
  • GreenHeronGreenHeron Posts: 148
    ...NOT spent more time with Barnier...
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Elliot, when Hollande came to power in France, huge numbers of well-paid Frenchmen moved to London. The extent was so large that I believe London became the third largest 'French' city.

    You might believe it but it's almost certainly not correct. The third largest city in France is Lyon with half a million people. There is no way there are more French people in London than that.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/emmanuel-macron-london-to-be-the-sixth-biggest-french-city-a3473126.html
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Nigelb said:

    Elliot said:

    Mr. Ace, ha. Socialists always promise to tax the rich. The rich will either emigrate or be taxed to extinction. And then the middle class will be taxed. And before you can say "Comrades, we must all make sacrifices for the good of the Party" the vast majority will be paying more in tax.

    The socialist experiment fails every time it happens. It's the essence of madness to continue committing the same folly and pretending it might be different this time because the earlier attempts weren't 'real socialism'.

    Edited extra bit: Churchill said:
    "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."

    This is a well worn myth. Taxing people at high rates in a democracy hasn't made the rich extinct anywhere. Nor do the very rich emigrate in any large numbers. They have friends, family and lives they remain attached to. That is why the right wing newspaper have to use anecdotes rather than data over this. Plus the income levels of the very rich are booming, which means we can tax them at much higher rates and they would still see returns on their work much higher than under Thatcher.

    Socialism has failed in many places but that was little to do with tax. It was more because they failed to understand the advantages of well regulated markets compared to central planning and price fixing. When you combine high taxes, good regulation, generous welfare states and markets, it works great. See Scandinavia, Japan, Germany etc.
    True, up to a point - though even Sweden found they had to row back on taxation at some point.
    And per capita welfare spending is lower in Japan than in the UK.
    Japanese welfare spending consists of hiring the poor to build government infrastructure projects.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394
    Cyclefree said:

    Miss Cyclefree, not sure that's true. A David white paper was leaked online (maybe ConHome?) yesterday. It's essentially the Canada deal with extra bits.

    The May white paper is not the creation of Davis et al. but May et al (the insinuation is guided/dictated by pro-EU Civil Service types). It's not the work of any type of Leaver, but Remainers.

    I know that. But Davis, Fox and Johnson have been in government for nearly 2 years and they have come up with nothing workable. It is not surprising that May has come up with something. The Leavers are, I'm afraid, very good indeed at saying what they are against - but utterly useless at coming up with their own practical workable plan which has a realistic chance of being accepted by those who need to accept it.

    So if the choice is - exit with no deal - or Remain, I am seriously leaning towards Remain. I think it a total abdication of responsibility to allow the country to continue towards a crash out deal with all that that likely implies. Pointing to a referendum nearly 3 years earlier when people were told that leaving would be easy and would have no consequences even if there was no deal is not, I think, a good enough answer. And I suspect that those who lose their jobs will think so too - even if they may have voted to Leave. They will say that they did not vote for this and will punish the politicians in charge. Now, I don't care about the Tories. But I do care about my country and I don't want it heading into potential disaster.
    I'd far rather have a deal than not, but I recognise that it may not be possible to agree one. As I've said, I find the Chequers proposals quite reasonable, but I'm sceptical that they'll be agreed by the EU.

    If a deal cannot be agreed, I'd rather transition to WTO terms, than cancel Brexit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    edited July 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Elliot, when Hollande came to power in France, huge numbers of well-paid Frenchmen moved to London. The extent was so large that I believe London became the third largest 'French' city.

    You might believe it but it's almost certainly not correct. The third largest city in France is Lyon with half a million people. There is no way there are more French people in London than that.
    Even Boris said London was France’s sixth largest city.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26823489

    Mr Dancer is a typical Leaver, massively overestimating the number of foreigners in the UK.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,307
    Elliot said:

    Nigelb said:

    Elliot said:

    Mr. Ace, ha. Socialists always promise to tax the rich. The rich will either emigrate or be taxed to extinction. And then the middle class will be taxed. And before you can say "Comrades, we must all make sacrifices for the good of the Party" the vast majority will be paying more in tax.

    The socialist experiment fails every time it happens. It's the essence of madness to continue committing the same folly and pretending it might be different this time because the earlier attempts weren't 'real socialism'.

    Edited extra bit: Churchill said:
    "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."

    This is a well worn myth. Taxing people at high rates in a democracy hasn't made the rich extinct anywhere. Nor do the very rich emigrate in any large numbers. They have friends, family and lives they remain attached to. That is why the right wing newspaper have to use anecdotes rather than data over this. Plus the income levels of the very rich are booming, which means we can tax them at much higher rates and they would still see returns on their work much higher than under Thatcher.

    Socialism has failed in many places but that was little to do with tax. It was more because they failed to understand the advantages of well regulated markets compared to central planning and price fixing. When you combine high taxes, good regulation, generous welfare states and markets, it works great. See Scandinavia, Japan, Germany etc.
    True, up to a point - though even Sweden found they had to row back on taxation at some point.
    And per capita welfare spending is lower in Japan than in the UK.
    Japanese welfare spending consists of hiring the poor to build government infrastructure projects.
    Actually, I was wrong - my figures for Japan were slightly out of date. But it's a good illustration of how rapidly these relative welfare spending figures fluctuate.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394
    edited July 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    How did our politics become so infantilised? Neither side is better than the other.
    So far the numbers protesting against Trump seem pretty small?

    Are things supposed to liven up this afternoon?
    The big protest is expected today, yes. Apparently members of Boris’ family are set to take part:
    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1017695816889327616?s=21
    Rachel no doubt
    I don't understand why the Stop the War Coalition are protesting. They're basically on the same side as Putin and Trump.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    So, last Friday at Chequers the Cabinet were forced to surrender their mobile phones. This Friday who has the phone of the tweeter-in-chief?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Ms. Apocalypse, not hugely surprising as Boris' sister is, I think, a Lib Dem now.

    Mr. Elliot, either that or I just don't keep a record of all the information I ever hear...

    Mr. Ace, went to check. Wikipedia's stats are, a bit unhelpfully, from the 2011 census which has 66,000 Frenchmen in London. Must admit, I find that astoundingly small. It's doubly unhelpful because Hollande was in office from 2012 to 2017.
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