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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Best of luck today Theresa – you are going to need it
Given Trump’s unpopularity in the UK this might just help TMay
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The trouble is that people like Clegg don't realise that they are not better than Trump, they are just the reverse of Trump. Elitist snobs who love glad-handing at international organisations and then won't implement the results of the biggest public vote in UK history. Trump exists because people like Clegg exist. If all the Cleggs went away, we wouldn't have Trump!
And no, May will get no sympathy. People are going to realise that Trump is saying what he thinks and that most of them agree with him - May has made a dreadful hash of negotiations and the UK would much rather we had someone like Trump to stand up for our interests. And, of course, he is pointing out that the truth of her dreadful Chequers plan is that we won't be able to agree trade deals with major players such as the US.
The US is our ally and friend, regardless of which muppet they elect. The EU is not our ally and certainly not our friend. May forgot this. Trump is giving her a well-deserved kicking.
Trump is no diplomat, but he was right to state a few home truths. If May's proposed deal goes through, probably modified further to suit the EU, it will be BINO. The UK will become a vassal state ruled from Berlin/Brussels, with no say in trade or many other rules/laws and no ability to do business independently with the rest of the world. It is not what I voted for on 23/6/16.
In passing it should noted that Trump currently has a higher approval rating at home than many leaders of EU countries, and it's their votes he wants, not ours.
I'm certainly no fan of Theresa May but Trumps's antics on UK soil are so far beyond acceptable that it makes even me, a confirmed Liberal Democrat, want stand up for her (in principle rather than on policy, of course).
The Queen must be absolutely dreading meeting this moron... and goodness only knows what he'll come out and say after seeing her.
Trump wouldn’t know the truth if you beat him about the head with it, and ‘home’ ?
Trump most reminds me of a disregulated child in a primary school class.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/07/12/trump-backed-brexit-then-he-used-it-as-leverage-219001
Contrary to the rhetoric, the Trump administration has pursued a predatory policy toward Britain designed to capitalize on the UK’s need for new trading arrangements after Brexit. The United States has sought to exact painful concessions that it was unable to secure when Britain negotiated as a member of the EU.
The Trump administration helped block an agreement between London and Brussels on its agricultural quotas in the World Trade Organization. It has offered Britain a worse deal on the Open Skies Agreement than it currently has as an EU member. Senior Trump administration officials have made it clear that it will insist the UK adopt many U.S. regulations as a condition for an FTA, even though this would necessarily limit Britain’s ability to negotiate a trade deal with the remaining 27 members of the EU. Some demands, like access to the National Health Service for U.S. firms, would be especially controversial in the UK...
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-trade-war-steers-germany-angela-merkel-and-china-xi-jinping-toward-a-united-front/
Trump is an enabler of authoritarian regimes even when he falls out with them.
Since Theresa May is not making any case for her approach and the headbangers are foaming at the mouth but not proposing anything realistically achievable, the public will miserably acquiesce with the government’s proposals but won’t thank it for them.
Her political judgement is so poor that you wonder how she made it so far. She is promoted way beyond her level of competence.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1017553809164374016?s=21
He's only here for a few days. The media will wet itself with excitement, and then we'll return to trench warfare.
And then there are people who believe we voted for British sovereignty.
And who on earth would trust Trump to do a trade deal that benefits the UK
It does look like this interview was organised by Farage, Boris and Tom Newton Dunn of the Sun
It will be interesting to see if this comes out in due course
The winners from cheaper food are the urban poor, who don't vote Conservative.
https://twitter.com/LiamFox/status/1017533483437223936?s=19
As a lifelong conservative I came under attack yesterday from fellow conservatives accusing me of hysteria, not being a proper conservative, and that my son in law working for Airbus should maybe not expect to have a foreign holiday as it will all come right in the end.
I will remain a loyal member of my party and reject the 25% of ERG groups suicidal march to economic disaster
It is so strange that this week has seen me actually move to the Dominic Grieve, Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke side
Really disturbing and dangerous times
Obviously it'd need a Commons majority (there's a Remain majority, of course, but voting for a second referendum is not something that is guaranteed) but also someone to put it forward.
I wonder if Grieve et al. will try and make that the result of a meaningful vote.
My point is that to some degree it served May right. The US is our closest ally and she has basically lectured them from afar and failed to back them when she should (don't remember her backing Trump re NATO but he is right) and she wouldn't arrange the visit because she was too weak to face down protesters. Everyone knows Trump wants to be liked. He is the US President. If you can't work out how to manage him appropriately, you shouldn't be in the job and May is getting the pretty foreseeable blowback from her approach.
Lying over Brexit is a Government killer, honestly FTAs are not major election issues.
Whereas Corbyn, the SNP, and the ERG are variously motivated to reject the deal and bring down the government / crash the economy / dissolve the union.
Many of us who want a meaningful Brexit see Trump as expressing, naïvely perhaps and surely tactlessly, a genuine opinion about our chances of a free trade deal with the USA if the current government position is maintained. Our official negotiating posture of unabashed kowtowing to Brussels, acknowledging who is the master and pleading for any crumbs they may deign to drop, is seen as undignified humiliation by our friends (pace @rcs100 re friends and interests).
Listening to a couple of Finnish MEPs (they are held in high regard here in Finland) on the radio this morning, they have a clear view that the negotiations have run out of road and that we are heading for no-deal brexit. On the whole Finns are very keen EU-philes, which is geopolitical reality for them, but also very well disposed to the UK.
The party political aspect and Corbyn's own scepticism (although that could be outweighed by political opportunism) makes things more complicated.
Of course, the no deal/remain side would be immeasurably strengthened by having May campaign for the deal.
BigG is our first prominent counter-revolutionary.
There will be some very queasy Leavers sratching their heads this morning. I'd go s far as to say this could be one of the most significant celebrity endorsements we have seen in a political debate for a very long time.
Having publicly gut-punched May, he's entirely capable of rowing back a bit.
On a separate topic, if you voted for Blair twice, please do not call yourself a lifelong Conservative. It would be a false statement.
Hopefully when TM brings back a deal or a no deal
Still an argument based around eat Spam, holiday in Blackpool is a sure fire vote winner.
For me, the advantage of leaving the CU is to cut tariffs on goods which we don't need to protect.
History will judge most Brexiteers to have been extremely naive about the ease of achieving their goals. Gove and Cummings are the exception.
The most significant event in British political discourse since the election of Margaret Thatcher in 1979 was the BREXIT vote. All flows from it.
The Trump "state visit" (in all but name) is dramatic theatre but May and the other European leaders have from the earliest days of his presidency realized that there is one personal driving force behind Donald's term of office - Narcissism - All flows from it.
Their problem is determining how to deal with it. All flows from it
And I will continue to say I am a lifelong conservative despite your protestations
Try to stand back and see the big picture.
Sadly the big picture is May is seen as stuttering and lacking in imagination. A weak, cautious robot of a leader, with no guile or empathy. She will DEFINITELY ruin the Tory cause for a generation because her managerial style of surrender government contrasts sharply with even Corbyn, who at least knows what he wants, and will welcome a revolution to get there.
She should stand down because she's not up to it.
The Trump and ERG things will not influence the public either way. The voters know what to expect there. May ramming her cabinet with Remainers and being too weak and gutless to even explain her Brexit proposals will have far more impact.
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1017664396238245889?s=21
PB is a fascinating place full of a whole range of opinions and a larger range of people expressing those opinions.
I can see that the direction of travel with some of the exchanges you are having could be quite upsetting for you.
I think you should at all times remind yourself that wonderful as PB is, it is just an internet forum and things said on internet forums should not be taken too seriously. In particular with some of the bonkers posters on here.
And they certainly shouldn’t be taken as any kind of valid comment on you or your life.
(Looks round expectantly to see how this morning's troll of the Corbynistas goes down...)
The agricultural concessions we make to the EU is already over the line for many farmers. What we'd have to accept for America wouldn't even leave the line visible for the majority of farmers.
He really has a problem with women in power, doesn’t he? Merkel, May and before them Clinton....
This is the kind of idiot rewriting of history that is so contemptible about Leavers. The Leavers in government have flounced off one by one in an attempt to secure by sabotage what they could not obtain in Cabinet by force of argument. Leavers are pretending to be victims after they have acted with incompetent malice.
TM has mishandled this in some ways but there is nobody else who seems to have a clue how to act in our best interests.
I am not concerned about her standing down but the only way forward is deal or remain.
My main issue is for the first time I have come under attack from fellow conservatives who seem to have lost all sense with reality but as you say it is a forum and these things hapoen, sadly
I hope all is well at Tabman Towers ?
Was your analysis a metaphor for the Coalition government ? ..
Someone, somewhere needs to teach Trump a lesson.
How on earth could Boris and Davies stay in place?
Take the personalities out of it, they were presented with proposals which forced them to renege on what they'd offered the electorate. What they'd offered the electorate might have been pie in the sky (your opinion) but May has lacked the imagination to think BIG. They had to go.
On NATO, he had a point, but often he doesn't. Not much different from any other politician who believes what they want to believe, and only look at facts that reinforce their opinion. The only difference is that he's much ruder (uncouth, in fact).
Tomorrow, you may well find that he and Mrs May are bessie mates.
He might even change his mind about the EU eventually. Strong, he thinks so. Stable not.
Mr G, I've no problem with anyone who changes their mind. Mr Meeks might even come round to wanting to leave the EU.
I have the utmost respect for BigG personally but someone who voted for Blair twice is not a 'lifelong conservative' even if he generally does vote and campaign for the Tories.
To explain that from a Tory perspective try telling a Labour member and Corbyn supporter someone who voted for Cameron twice is a 'lifelong Labour voter' and wait for the reaction
Some posters of this parish take it personally when you change your political position (as I found out myself a couple of months ago)
Ignore the purists and zealots or do what I did and take several weeks off and relax
I had my first real Brexit wobble last month as I was driving through a quaint market town, the kind of place you think only exists in postcards these days. And I said to myself, Brexit is going to make everything shit, isn't it?
I despise the EU, I think it's an affront to democracy. I think freedom of movement has caused untold damage to the fabric of society, I think the Euro has been an unmitigated disaster and I think the tin-eared bureaucrats in Brussels have absolutely no interest in representing the interests of British citizens - and make no mistake, as the Brexit negotiations are showing, they are very much the ones in charge.
I still think Brexit is a good idea from a democratic point of view. There is more to life than money - the right to self-determination being one of them. But if we end up as a vassal state, what has been the point of it all? And if the deal is worse than what we had before, or worse, leads to economic disaster, I am inclined to agree that the leaders of the revolution will be swiftly devoured by those who believed in them.
"It will be very disturbing and dangerous times if you don't respect leaves referendum result."
Some people prefer selective democracy. Only stuff they approve of can be allowed to go through. A little like the politburo democracy. They're superior people, you see.
Australia and New Zealand stripped away all tax payer funding for farming and their agricultural sectors are booming
Pointing out the two nations were the largest investors in each other’s economies, “with over a trillion dollars of investments between us” she rammed home that the UK is the largest investor in the US, “providing nearly a fifth of all foreign investment in your country”.
“We invest 30% more than our nearest rival. More than 20 times what China invests. And more than France and Germany combined.
“That all means a great deal more than simply numbers in bank accounts. It means jobs, opportunities and wealth for hardworking people right across America,”
“Tomorrow morning, around 24,000 men and women in Michigan will get up and go to work for a UK-owned company. Another 40,000 will do the same in Ohio. 60,000 in Pennsylvania.
“In Texas, British employers provide work for an incredible 100,000 people.”
Mostly reflects fairly well on May though her strategy seems primarily to suck it up and keep her temper.