80-odd Tory MPs at an ERG meeting at the same time as the 1922 meeting - Channel 4
Well no wonder the 1922 went so well if 80 odd of the most likely plotters were elsewhere.
I find the “got to stick with May now or it will wreck the negotiation and we will go over cliff” line from those trying to shore her up as hysterical and desperate in equal measure. Mays getting sacked in the morning not because of Brexit, but because she’s crap, and it’s her being crap for so long that has created this mess. Mays baggage is not just the fudge, it’s the cred murdering u turns. Whatever the faction or personality, can she make any promise in her office again to anyone and they believe her?
Whether it’s Javid or one of many others, it’s fresh face, fresh energy, fresh ideas, fresh voice different personality, honeymoon period at home and abroad, most importantly slates wiped clean, its the only way forward from this situation, and its ideal antidote to such a situation. It is that what will clearly win the confidence vote, not an individual losing it. So once it goes to a secret ballot don’t try counting this factions vote, or guess what the other faction may do, or think it’s only 48 of them, just 80 odd, whatever the faction or individual I have just told you what the vast amount of them will vote for.
Most Labour voters voted Remain. What everyone else in their constituency did makes no difference."
Not this again. My constituency in NW England. Referendum 58% Leave. GE 2OI7 Labour 26,000 Cons 6,000, Ukip 6,000, Others bits and bobs. labour majority 20,000
To be honest if you're an MP at the 1922 and everyone starts banging on the desks and welcoming the PM as if she's the world's biggest conquering hero you're hardly going to put your neck out there and then and mention you might VoNC her.
Excellent thread from Mr. Meeks. First time I've ever said that! So much depends now , in my view, on the EU response to T. May's plan. They really do have the power to destroy the government. However, lord only knows how far the collateral damage could spread - Ireland for starters.
Most Labour voters voted Remain. What everyone else in their constituency did makes no difference."
Not this again. My constituency in NW England. Referendum 58% Leave. GE 2OI7 Labour 26,000 Cons 6,000, Ukip 6,000, Others bits and bobs. labour majority 20,000
To be honest if you're an MP at the 1922 and everyone starts banging on the desks and welcoming the PM as if she's the world's biggest conquering hero you're hardly going to put your neck out there and then and mention you might VoNC her.
Especially so when it appears that all those in favour of the PM went to the ‘22 and all those opposed to her went to the ERG.
Given the ERG number around 80, the threshold of 48 for a challenge is a pretty low bar. If someone’s not co-ordinating letters to Mr Brady carefully it could be reached by accident.
The really remarkable thing is how little support the LDs have gained, you couldn't design a better situations for them to prosper than this.
I think I could. It would involve not having betrayed a headline commitment which was hugely important to many of their voters, not having undercut their function as a tactical vote by making it clear they'd swallow whatever the largest party wanted to feed them for a turn in government, not having a leader who seems incapable of getting any press coverage at all, and not being economic centrists in an era of increased polarisation.
They arguably face two major problems which combine to keep them from taking flight. Firstly they were wiped out so badly in 2015 that they are not in a position to claim they are on the verge of a realignment or breakthrough - Lewisham being a case in point. In too many seats they're just not close enough to put the wind up the big two parties and successfully attract moderate voters away from choosing the one they think is the best of a bad bunch. Secondly, the low hanging fruit for a third party are anti-establishment voters, because they will actually vote for you regardless. The Lib Dems used to target these on the activist left thanks to Iraq and their poses on tuition fees etc. - but Corbyn's attracting that crowd, at least until he inevitably gets found out as a fraud who can no more put glitter on the Brexit turd than Boris or Theresa.
The Lib Dems won't get anywhere though until they have a genuinely post-coalition leader who can remake the party in a new image, and capitalise on the other parties' failures. Then they can start to work to solve those problems.
Theresa, you only got "cabinet agreement" on Friday by threatening them with humiliation. That's not real " agreement" - That's people keeping up appearances until they can get home without having to do the walk of shame down the Chequers drive....
"My grandma kept the house immaculate, with display cabinets filled with charming if not particularly valuable china..."
I'm surprised you didn't use the term "Delft rack". Personal comment: my terrace house escaped the ravages,especially popular in the 1960s, of ripping out fireplaces, walls, and other original fixtures: it still has its fitted Delft rack.
"Leavers have been very clear about what they don’t want and completely befuddled about what they might actually want..."
Another personal comment: Many of the brexitiers I have known "wanted their country back". But I can't see that they ever lost it. Now they're b***ering it up
I can honestly say I have never been more ashamed of our Country.
On the day Boris Johnson was supposed to be hosting a West Balkans Summit arranged by himself he failed to turn up at all leaving the event unhosted and creating fury among the Foreign Ministers present. He was so into himself he was holed up in his Office plotting and scheming to protect his career at the expense of our Country's reputation.
He had previously told Airbus to FO and went awol on the Heathrow vote to save his career which has ended a few days later.
I am unable to identify with him or any of the hard Brexiteers and I will fight to see our party and Country's image restored as business friendly and a Country respected on the World stage.
Tonight thanks to these zealots and the likes of the obnoxious Farage our Country is being laughed at and this at the time our wonderful football team is, wait for it, in the semi finals of the World Cup.
I hope that TM survives but if she doesn't I hope we can have a leader that holds high business and relationships around the World, including the EU, and goes someway along the road to restore our National pride and image
May clearly isn't going via VoNC, but surely she needs to have a majority in parliament prepared to vote for her version of Brexit for her position to be tenable?
May clearly isn't going via VoNC, but surely she needs to have a majority in parliament prepared to vote for her version of Brexit for her position to be tenable?
Unless her plan is to negotiate a deal and then call a referendum.
May clearly isn't going via VoNC, but surely she needs to have a majority in parliament prepared to vote for her version of Brexit for her position to be tenable?
There are behind the scenes moves to involve cross party consensus which even the SNP are party to. This has a long way to go with many twists and turns but if she gets an agreement I cannot see the HOC as a whole rejecting it as it would provoke fury among the electorate, including Brenda, who just want it done
Theresa, you only got "cabinet agreement" on Friday by threatening them with humiliation. That's not real " agreement" - That's people keeping up appearances until they can get home without having to do the walk of shame down the Chequers drive....
If that was what kept them from resigning then and there, then I have less respect for them not more. Better to take that humiliation, which would be more on her than them, than pretend to agree only to reverse position later. Pathetic.
Seems to be taking a while to appoint a foreign secretary?
William Hague is playing hard to get perhaps?
Gareth Southgate is busy till at least Saturday night, possibly Sunday. If he is busy on Sunday there’s a chance he’ll have an appointment at the Palace anyway on Monday.
With so many people "predicting" May will go imminently, one wonders why the 5/2 available on her going by 30th September isn't being snapped up?
Of course we all know why - it's the golden rule of PB:
When someone posts "I predict ......" what they actually mean is "I want ......"
But posting "I want ......" doesn't look very sophisticated so instead they dress it up as a prediction.
No, I don't think that's true. I think May is likely to go quite quickly, but I don't want her to - I don't see how it will help - and I doubt I am alone in that.
May clearly isn't going via VoNC, but surely she needs to have a majority in parliament prepared to vote for her version of Brexit for her position to be tenable?
There are behind the scenes moves to involve cross party consensus which even the SNP are party to. This has a long way to go with many twists and turns but if she gets an agreement I cannot see the HOC as a whole rejecting it as it would provoke fury among the electorate, including Brenda, who just want it done
Will prove bitterly ironic if there is a "meaningful vote" to find only the most extreme Brexiters voting nay.
The other interesting feature will also be the other new Cabinet entrant (as well as the further reshuffle of existing members). Perhaps Rory the Tory will be elevated, not least to restore the Etonian quota. Plus the lower ranks at Minister of State/PUSS.
Perhaps Robert Smithson’s day will be made by Kwasi Kwateng finally getting a job?
The other interesting feature will also be the other new Cabinet entrant (as well as the further reshuffle of existing members). Perhaps Rory the Tory will be elevated, not least to restore the Etonian quota. Plus the lower ranks at Minister of State/PUSS.
Perhaps Robert Smithson’s day will be made by Kwasi Kwateng finally getting a job?
"My grandma kept the house immaculate, with display cabinets filled with charming if not particularly valuable china..."
I'm surprised you didn't use the term "Delft rack". Personal comment: my terrace house escaped the ravages,especially popular in the 1960s, of ripping out fireplaces, walls, and other original fixtures: it still has its fitted Delft rack.
"Leavers have been very clear about what they don’t want and completely befuddled about what they might actually want..."
Another personal comment: Many of the brexitiers I have known "wanted their country back". But I can't see that they ever lost it. Now they're b***ering it up
I can honestly say I have never been more ashamed of our Country.
On the day Boris Johnson was supposed to be hosting a West Balkans Summit arranged by himself he failed to turn up at all leaving the event unhosted and creating fury among the Foreign Ministers present. He was so into himself he was holed up in his Office plotting and scheming to protect his career at the expense of our Country's reputation.
He had previously told Airbus to FO and went awol on the Heathrow vote to save his career which has ended a few days later.
I am unable to identify with him or any of the hard Brexiteers and I will fight to see our party and Country's image restored as business friendly and a Country respected on the World stage.
Tonight thanks to these zealots and the likes of the obnoxious Farage our Country is being laughed at and this at the time our wonderful football team is, wait for it, in the semi finals of the World Cup.
I hope that TM survives but if she doesn't I hope we can have a leader that holds high business and relationships around the World, including the EU, and goes someway along the road to restore our National pride and image
"My grandma kept the house immaculate, with display cabinets filled with charming if not particularly valuable china..."
I'm surprised you didn't use the term "Delft rack". Personal comment: my terrace house escaped the ravages,especially popular in the 1960s, of ripping out fireplaces, walls, and other original fixtures: it still has its fitted Delft rack.
"Leavers have been very clear about what they don’t want and completely befuddled about what they might actually want..."
Another personal comment: Many of the brexitiers I have known "wanted their country back". But I can't see that they ever lost it. Now they're b***ering it up
I can honestly say I have never been more ashamed of our Country.
On the day Boris Johnson was supposed to be hosting a West Balkans Summit arranged by himself he failed to turn up at all leaving the event unhosted and creating fury among the Foreign Ministers present. He was so into himself he was holed up in his Office plotting and scheming to protect his career at the expense of our Country's reputation.
He had previously told Airbus to FO and went awol on the Heathrow vote to save his career which has ended a few days later.
I am unable to identify with him or any of the hard Brexiteers and I will fight to see our party and Country's image restored as business friendly and a Country respected on the World stage.
Tonight thanks to these zealots and the likes of the obnoxious Farage our Country is being laughed at and this at the time our wonderful football team is, wait for it, in the semi finals of the World Cup.
I hope that TM survives but if she doesn't I hope we can have a leader that holds high business and relationships around the World, including the EU, and goes someway along the road to restore our National pride and image
"My grandma kept the house immaculate, with display cabinets filled with charming if not particularly valuable china..."
I'm surprised you didn't use the term "Delft rack". Personal comment: my terrace house escaped the ravages,especially popular in the 1960s, of ripping out fireplaces, walls, and other original fixtures: it still has its fitted Delft rack.
"Leavers have been very clear about what they don’t want and completely befuddled about what they might actually want..."
Another personal comment: Many of the brexitiers I have known "wanted their country back". But I can't see that they ever lost it. Now they're b***ering it up
I can honestly say I have never been more ashamed of our Country.
On the day Boris Johnson was supposed to be hosting a West Balkans Summit arranged by himself he failed to turn up at all leaving the event unhosted and creating fury among the Foreign Ministers present. He was so into himself he was holed up in his Office plotting and scheming to protect his career at the expense of our Country's reputation.
He had previously told Airbus to FO and went awol on the Heathrow vote to save his career which has ended a few days later.
I am unable to identify with him or any of the hard Brexiteers and I will fight to see our party and Country's image restored as business friendly and a Country respected on the World stage.
Tonight thanks to these zealots and the likes of the obnoxious Farage our Country is being laughed at and this at the time our wonderful football team is, wait for it, in the semi finals of the World Cup.
I hope that TM survives but if she doesn't I hope we can have a leader that holds high business and relationships around the World, including the EU, and goes someway along the road to restore our National pride and image
"My grandma kept the house immaculate, with display cabinets filled with charming if not particularly valuable china..."
I'm surprised you didn't use the term "Delft rack". Personal comment: my terrace house escaped the ravages,especially popular in the 1960s, of ripping out fireplaces, walls, and other original fixtures: it still has its fitted Delft rack.
"Leavers have been very clear about what they don’t want and completely befuddled about what they might actually want..."
Another personal comment: Many of the brexitiers I have known "wanted their country back". But I can't see that they ever lost it. Now they're b***ering it up
I can honestly say I have never been more ashamed of our Country.
On the day Boris Johnson was supposed to be hosting a West Balkans Summit arranged by himself he failed to turn up at all leaving the event unhosted and creating fury among the Foreign Ministers present. He was so into himself he was holed up in his Office plotting and scheming to protect his career at the expense of our Country's reputation.
He had previously told Airbus to FO and went awol on the Heathrow vote to save his career which has ended a few days later.
I am unable to identify with him or any of the hard Brexiteers and I will fight to see our party and Country's image restored as business friendly and a Country respected on the World stage.
Tonight thanks to these zealots and the likes of the obnoxious Farage our Country is being laughed at and this at the time our wonderful football team is, wait for it, in the semi finals of the World Cup.
I hope that TM survives but if she doesn't I hope we can have a leader that holds high business and relationships around the World, including the EU, and goes someway along the road to restore our National pride and image
Alan Duncan (old friend of Theresa’s)? Tobias Elwood another possibility for promotion. Mel Stride or Richard Harrington? But can’t be bothered to look up the list of current Ministers of State....
"Not this again. Most Labour voters voted Remain. What everyone else in their constituency did makes no difference." Not this again. My constituency in NW England. Referendum 58% Leave. GE 2OI7 Labour 26,000 Cons 6,000, Ukip 6,000, Others bits and bobs. labour majority 20,000 Who voted Leave?
Where is that - Makerfield ?
It was never made clear by the Conservatives who were running both the Leave and Remain campaigns exactly what the question was. Many people though that is was about the conditions that Mr Cameron had negotiated so spectacuarly in the previous three weeks with the various head of government in the EU. Since most people hated the Conservatives -understandably - they understood that they ought to vote against the Conservative proposals, and Mr Cameron`s government while they were at it.
That did not mean that they actually wanted to leave the EU. Still less in the way that Mrs May`s hard-line Tories chose to interpret the result.
Alan Duncan (old friend of Theresa’s)? Tobias Elwood another possibility for promotion. Mel Stride or Richard Harrington? But can’t be bothered to look up the list of current Ministers of State....
From Minister of State to FCS would be a very big jump. Has anyone made such a jump since Eden (with a brief interlude as Lord Privy Seal) in 1935?
Alan Duncan (old friend of Theresa’s)? Tobias Elwood another possibility for promotion. Mel Stride or Richard Harrington? But can’t be bothered to look up the list of current Ministers of State....
From Minister of State to FCS would be a very big jump. Has anyone made such a jump since Eden (with a brief interlude as Lord Privy Seal) in 1935?
David Owen.
He went from Minister of State at the FCO to Foreign Secretary.
Edit you could argue John Major too. He went from Chief Secretary which is effectively Minister of State at the Treasury to Foreign Secretary.
Alan Duncan (old friend of Theresa’s)? Tobias Elwood another possibility for promotion. Mel Stride or Richard Harrington? But can’t be bothered to look up the list of current Ministers of State....
From Minister of State to FCS would be a very big jump. Has anyone made such a jump since Eden (with a brief interlude as Lord Privy Seal) in 1935?
Alan Duncan (old friend of Theresa’s)? Tobias Elwood another possibility for promotion. Mel Stride or Richard Harrington? But can’t be bothered to look up the list of current Ministers of State....
From Minister of State to FCS would be a very big jump. Has anyone made such a jump since Eden (with a brief interlude as Lord Privy Seal) in 1935?
David Owen 1977
Neither are exactly dazzling examples of successes.
I rarely agree with Alastair when it comes to Brexit but here we are. I'm a devoted Leaver and former Vote Leave constituency co-ordinator yet to be persuaded that her proposal is betrayal or BINO. It would substantially remove us from the EU and allow for later divergence on industrial and agricultural goods as and when full solutions were in place. Maybe in some parallel universe more planning was done in advance of A50 and Canada+++ was pushed for from the start by a united Cabinet. We're not in that parallel universe though. The EU may (might have?) found some spurious reason to reject May's proposal but that wouldn't make trying it wrong.
The EU may (might have?) found some spurious reason to reject May's proposal but that wouldn't make trying it wrong.
That's really the key. If it gets accepted May likely wins, as God knows people are getting fed up with the "debate", but if the EU says no May is surely finished.
Comments
Whether it’s Javid or one of many others, it’s fresh face, fresh energy, fresh ideas, fresh voice different personality, honeymoon period at home and abroad, most importantly slates wiped clean, its the only way forward from this situation, and its ideal antidote to such a situation. It is that what will clearly win the confidence vote, not an individual losing it. So once it goes to a secret ballot don’t try counting this factions vote, or guess what the other faction may do, or think it’s only 48 of them, just 80 odd, whatever the faction or individual I have just told you what the vast amount of them will vote for.
"Not this again.
Most Labour voters voted Remain. What everyone else in their constituency did makes no difference."
Not this again. My constituency in NW England. Referendum 58% Leave. GE 2OI7 Labour 26,000 Cons 6,000, Ukip 6,000, Others bits and bobs. labour majority 20,000
Who voted Leave?
Given the ERG number around 80, the threshold of 48 for a challenge is a pretty low bar. If someone’s not co-ordinating letters to Mr Brady carefully it could be reached by accident.
His goal was to stop Jameson becoming Governor of the Bank of England.
I think this comes under the same heading.
The Lib Dems won't get anywhere though until they have a genuinely post-coalition leader who can remake the party in a new image, and capitalise on the other parties' failures. Then they can start to work to solve those problems.
On the day Boris Johnson was supposed to be hosting a West Balkans Summit arranged by himself he failed to turn up at all leaving the event unhosted and creating fury among the Foreign Ministers present. He was so into himself he was holed up in his Office plotting and scheming to protect his career at the expense of our Country's reputation.
He had previously told Airbus to FO and went awol on the Heathrow vote to save his career which has ended a few days later.
I am unable to identify with him or any of the hard Brexiteers and I will fight to see our party and Country's image restored as business friendly and a Country respected on the World stage.
Tonight thanks to these zealots and the likes of the obnoxious Farage our Country is being laughed at and this at the time our wonderful football team is, wait for it, in the semi finals of the World Cup.
I hope that TM survives but if she doesn't I hope we can have a leader that holds high business and relationships around the World, including the EU, and goes someway along the road to restore our National pride and image
IF a third of the Parliamentary Party don't support May in a VoNC - what then ? She can continue but as Major found in 1995 all authority has gone.
As in 1990 it's so much easier for the "plotters" if May walks of her own volition.
He apparently said 'I will vote against the Brexit deal on a Monday and vote for confidence in the PM on Tuesday'
Never has the old joke, 'rarely right and never honourable,' seemed more apt.
Not even though that joke was invented by Jeffrey Archer's constituents.
"Where is that - Makerfield ?"
Not far away. St Helens South.
Of course we all know why - it's the golden rule of PB:
When someone posts "I predict ......" what they actually mean is "I want ......"
But posting "I want ......" doesn't look very sophisticated so instead they dress it up as a prediction.
Up the pie-eighters!
Perhaps Robert Smithson’s day will be made by Kwasi Kwateng finally getting a job?
That may be a reason for him to refuse it, of course.
https://twitter.com/lordcfalconer/status/1016327509674164225?s=21
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/04/jeremy-hunt-is-clearly-on-manoeuvres-and-hes-also-1001-to-be-next-tory-leader/
And at 66/1 in November 2017
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/26/my-1001-tip-for-next-pm-is-setting-his-sights-on-number-10/
Good luck.
It is not the British way.
That did not mean that they actually wanted to leave the EU. Still less in the way that Mrs May`s hard-line Tories chose to interpret the result.
He went from Minister of State at the FCO to Foreign Secretary.
Edit you could argue John Major too. He went from Chief Secretary which is effectively Minister of State at the Treasury to Foreign Secretary.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016409335444930561
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1016410594189152257
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1016410594189152257