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There's a lot of anger in Manchester, 2 defeats yesterday and now Owen's there to cheer them up...
Owen Jones@OwenJones843m
Police estimate there’s over 50,000 marching against the Tories in Manchester. Organisers originally estimated 30,000 would turn up #NHS299
299th march about the NHS against the Tories but never when Labour were in office?
299 patients who died every day under Labour?
299 days to Save the NHS after 24hrs wasn't long enough?
A typo?
norman smith @BBCNormanS 4m
Retro chic Rools. Hammer and Sickle flags still being flown by Communist Party at #nhs299. Demo at #cpc13 pic.twitter.com/lt2TNk7h0Y
Assume it's (b). The government is taking on the nasty end of the risk curve so that borrowers with a riskier scenario can get lower rate loans (remember, it's not that these mortgages don't exist without state intervention, they just cost more). If you went shopping for an equivalent guarantee on the market, then it would cost you quite a lot - in fact the difference between the 75% and 95% mortgage or whatever. Assuming the free market is pricing this risk correctly - a reasonable Tory assumption, right? - then the policy is simply a mortgage interest subsidy for purchase. Fine. I mean, there's no money left, but leaving that aside it might be a good way to spend more of the money we don't have.
However, what happens when the buyer wants to remortgage? They probably have a rate that won't look too smart in 3-5 years. Either the government continues this subsidy; or mortgage payments go up sharply. The only way out for the government is to engineer house price inflation big time so that this year's 95% mortgage is 2016's 75% mortgage. It's that; or deferring price crash and repossessions; or providing open-ended subsidy. None of these are good.
And people complain that 20 months of energy price-capping could have unintended consequences...
Tory Chairman Grant Shapps won't be able to praise Manchester Conservative councillors this afternoon. Cos there aren't any
Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 2m
Marchers shout "Tory scum" outside. Activists watch video of Thatcher's greatest hits inside. Back to the future at #cpc13
Oh and can I just say (assuming it's still relevant) tim's awright, much of the time. To over-simplify and chance my arm speaking for him, for starters he sensibly and viscerally loathes the current Tory culture.
Come back tim. All is unforgiven.
Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour 28m
Some hard working people in Manchester who evidently have not yet bought into Jeremy Hunt' care agenda. pic.twitter.com/MpgJLuLhPN
Therese Coffey @theresecoffey 1m
@patrickwintour I expect they are not from Wales then else they would be marching on Cardiff
Please explain the disingenous bit - the market is less active at 90% as it impacts the banks capital needs by 6x than if lending to lower risk 60% so I don't understand your point at all.
So basically in your post, I'm saying it's essentially your option 'a' and not the 'b' that you are more comfortable with.
Presumably the retired, stay at home mums etc. should also not have a say.
Ha, Hammond gets first genuine laugh as he says Labour is party of fiscal discipline as the Lib Dems are party of ethical election campaigns
You do seem to be arguing that if George Osborne identifies a market failure, it's OK for him to interfere with free market pricing. I guess I just wonder why he's the only one who spotted it, since you'd expect guarantee providers who could undercut the banks' pricing delta to be making money by offering top-up guarantees to buyers otherwise. I'd be more tempted by the view that he knows it's not a market failure, but can't think of anything else to do. Same approach as underlies Ed's power policy really.
And before anyone says, yeah, Labour could well be doing the same if in power. Wouldn't surprise me.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 6m
Andrew Mitchell: buy shares in George Osborne; he's a recovery stock; his shares are greatly under-valued
They need a new logo. Without the green, the squiggle tree is just a squiggle. In fact, it looks like they ripped up the union flag.
The deleveraging of bank balance sheets, dead banks being wound down and as is typical, an overreaction where you swing back too far to risk aversion from risk loving pre 2008.
Affordability is not the risk being addressed here at all and those wrapping it up are wrong to portray it as so. It is the market pricing smaller deposits much more harshly than big deposits/equity and the argument is this is excessively so due to the aftershocks of the crisis.
I have macro-concerns too but the rush to say it's a muppet idea which even OGH simplistically and unwisely joined in last thread is what I was wanting to counter a little.
From 4pm UK time.
Official results:
http://wahl13.bmi.gv.at/
Livestream:
http://tvthek.orf.at/live/6799565
Thanks
DC
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 22m
Inside conference secure zone. Lots of noisy protestors outside. Bit like the dinner scene in Carry On Up The Khyber...
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 15m
@DPJHodges Is traditional for remains of Scottish Tory party to repeat Carry On kilt scene at the perimeter to ward off protesters.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 3m
@iainmartin1 Dear god. The Black Block don't stand a chance.
Sam Sussex @SamSussex
Owen Paterson MP says under #Labour the country was borrowing £300,000 a minute #cpc13
if Osborne's stock's recovery is as fast as the actual recovery, he might be of some value just before he retires.
Adrian Hilton @Adrian_Hilton
How many right-wingers were at the Labour Party conference crying "socialist scum", threatening violence or spitting on guests? #cpc13
Also, the Tories must make sure they don't come close to "socialist scum" either. It won't work.
I assume the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats won't want to go into government with the Freedom Party which means it'll probably be a grand coalition again.
http://audioboo.fm/boos/1628931-hammond-a-conservative-government-will-never-send-our-forces-in-to-battle-without-the-right-kit
It is always readily apparent that countries tend to prepare to fight the previous war, metaphorically speaking, rather than the next one.
On here, it's mostly the Second Punic War.
Dan Hodges in the Telegraph - It's time for the Conservative Party to let Margaret Thatcher go
Twitter
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 3m
Hope BBC are filming protests. Might have footage of @TimMontgomerie being spat at and @SebastianEPayne being threatened.
RT @labourpress: Sandwich at #cpc13 costs 65p more than week's worth of marriage tax allowance pic.twitter.com/CJMQlCZFhh
< StupidTweetOfTheDay
Social Democrats 26.5
People's Party 23.5
FPO 22%
Greens 11.5
Team Stronach 5.9
NEOS 4.6
BZO 3.7
Seats projection
SPO 52
OVP 46
FPO 43
Greens 22
Stronach 11
NEOS 9
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
"Fairly right wing" hardly sounds like an insult to the Conservatives. Similarly "fairly left wing" although maybe a bit different because of the very much centrist approach of Blair.
And from one of the best spoof accounts on Twitter
Iain Duncan Smith MP @IDS_MP 28m
Huge anti-cuts protest outside #cpc13 we’ve stopped them getting inside by writing ‘Job Centre’ on all the doors.
The seats projection is: C 308, L 304, LD 12, Others 9, NI 18.
You would need, at least, 3 parties and possibly 4 to form a coalition !
Twitter says the BBC was BANNED from filming anti-Tory protest: twitter.com/search?q=bbc%2…. Here's the scandal in full: pic.twitter.com/cagJBIWfZF
http://t.co/cagJBIWfZF
(I'm generally sceptical of any form of real bias in a left/right sense, plausibly a washy liberalish bias caused simply by being a group of journalists who applied to work at the BBC.)
Just looked at his follwers over 16000 from just 350 tweets - brilliant conversion rate and every numpty who didn't spot it's a parody account is retweeted.
"Slightly left-of-centre", "Centre", "Slightly right-of-centre", which was more than I imagined.
Twitter: BBC won't report protest! (bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…), tories censor BBC (security close area), LOOK AT PROTEST (photo a decade old)
Arf,
if Osborne's stock's recovery is as fast as the actual recovery, he might be of some value just before he retires.
Slow afternoon, Mr. Brooke? You must be bogged down with Eurostat statistics. Still showing UK growth for 2013 to be 0.6% total. And neither Germany nor the USA revised down in line with latest data.
Still they do show the progress being made by the UK under St. George.
Here is Table 1 with the performance of Gordon at its heart:
And here is the progress made under St George. You are with Eurostat in the slow lane.
"As it boomed, whistled and shouted its way past Manchester Central this afternoon, the TUC’s Save Our NHS march seemed reasonable enough. If they want to disagree with the Conservatives on key policy issues, then so be it, that’s government for you.
But when I decided to watch and photograph what I thought was a peaceful protest, I found that some of the comrades joining in weren’t so keen. A middle-aged man clutching a Socialist Worker grabbed me, demanding to know ‘who are you taking photos for?’. I told him I was taking them for me, and tried to walk away. But then two of his companions joined us."
Manchester local election results:
2012: Lab 32, Others 0
2011: Lab 33, Others 0
2010: Lab 23, LD 9
Team Stronach is shown as FRANK on the official site.
Note that SPO + OVP is a majority, so grand coalition could continue.
BUT OVP + FPO + Stronach or OVP + FPO + Neos is also a majority.
So ball is in OVP leader Spindelegger's court.
SPO leader Faymann, as winning party leader (& also sitting Chancellor) expected to have first go at forming govt.
Post 99 election (when FPO in 2nd with 27%), OVP talked for weeks with SPO but it got nowhere, then put together coalition with FPO in a couple of weeks.
All to play for, Grand Coalition may still be favourite but not a cert by any means, all depends on Spindelegger.
Larry the Cat @Number10cat 2h
@Ed_Miliband How do you feel about cats? Asking for a friend...
SPD 53 seats
OVP 46
FPO 42
Greens 22
Stronach 11
NEUS 9
Chirac esp concerned re impact on FN in France.
It slightly amuses me that single people (parents or not) get outraged about married couples getting tax breaks, and are far more livid than the childless are about the huge sums thrown at families on a regular basis.
I do support a tax recognition of married status (inc civil partnerships) because they are the most stable form of relationship. People who are divorced have chosen to be married in the first place and largely chosen to end their marriages since few divorces now are "fault" based.
Those of us who are single without children are generally unable to inheritance tax plan but that doesn't mean I want to stop the IHT inter-spousal transfer which takes people with far greater assets than me out of a potential tax liability when my estate would be liable to £100,000s on inheritance tax.
Below is the text of a letter sent by Alex Salmond, the First Minister of Scotland, to the UK Prime Minister David Cameron today, setting out six reasons why the PM should take part in a live debate with the FM on the subject of Scottish independence.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-power-of-six/#more-41719
Yes doing well - last thing Cameron will do is take the fall.....
Ergo, Eck will blink - or call the whole thing off.......
'wonder if Cameron will stick to his cowardly position on debating independence. Alex keeping up the pressure'
Will Saint Alex use that as yet another excuse when he loses?