politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The limitations of polling: How Americans responded when asked if a law that didn’t exist should be repealed
When phone samples were asked for their views about the repeal of the 1975 Public Affairs Act, a piece of legislation that doesn’t exist, 20-40% of those questioned were ready to offer views even though this was entirely fictional.
A classic "fail" in this approach was last Sunday's Sunday People by ComRes when attaching the "toxic" Osborne's name to a question still did not result in an answer they were looking for :
"I agree with George Osborne that the welfare system in Britain is broken": Agree: 66 Disagree: 20
It's an interesting study. I'm not surprised that some people responded to such a question, or the way the results change according to named individuals. The scale is surprising, however.
All in all it's a good article, with some thought-provoking results.
As I said yesterday the daily YG fluctuations do not merit much comment. Maybe weekly or monthly they can tell us something.
Only when our friends on the left can crow about the "failure" of the latest policy initiatives to move the polls in the way they had said the "PB Tories" had said it would.
I expect BenM to be along to condemn the "splitter" Blair for leading to Labour's "slump"! Or not.
Interesting article. But it perhaps tells us more about politics than polling. I suspect some people vote in real elections in a similar way, aligning themselves with a popular figure while knowing less about the issues or proposed legislation.
They will play it, and it will be a pyrrhic victory for the idiots organising it.
As an aside, according to Guido the single's only been downloaded 20,000 times, yet is high on the provisional charts. My (perhaps faulty) memory from the 1980s was that a single needed at least an order of magnitude more sales in order to be at a hope of reaching No. 1 . Have single sales / downloads really fallen that much?
Of course the hysterical press campaign is driving the downloads now. They are like Mary Whitehouse searching for something to be disgusted by.
And I see anti-censorship campaigner Guido Fawkes is demanding censorship.
No. It was already sailing high in this week's chart when I first saw it reported (on here, I think). What's driving the downloads are disrespectful idiots downloading the single.
The 1975 Public Affairs act was signed into law by Gerald Ford in the aftermath of Watergate. while it may be an over reaction, it has stood the test of time. I see no point in repeal.
Next they will suggest that the minister for Silly Walks is an anachronism, though I do accept that the ministry does struggle with contemporary attitudes to disability.
"A public relations expert said Mr Umunna’s response was a ‘PR crime’. Stuart Bell, co-founder of the PR firm DawBell, said: ‘A quote including “no recollection” for this particular situation is a PR crime. Phrases such as “I can’t say for certain” almost scream out “yes, it was me, I did it”.’
"What seems to fluctuate with YG is the Tory number. The Labour one is remarkably steady."
Correct - my own guess for what it's worth is there are more shy/disaffected Tories who can't be added to respond to the survey requests - I typically get about a dozen every month and delete most.
No. It was already sailing high in this week's chart when I first saw it reported (on here, I think). What's driving the downloads are disrespectful idiots downloading the single.
the over-reaction is ridiculous though. the dignified response would be just ignore. let the bbc play it without comment. no-one would notice. maybe some teenagers would be confused (assuming that teenagers are the ones listening to the chart countdown, if anybody is)
@Tim Playing devil's advocate, I expect the Mail and the Telegraph's response would be the standard left response of "No Platform".
Personally, however, I'd play the record. It's poor taste and reflects very badly on the buyers, but the same could be said of two thirds of the top 40.
I can't say I'm overly surprised by the findings. But then as many people will vote despite knowing next to nothing about the candidates or party policies, it's probably useful in trying to identify the scale of the active, clueless, donkey vote in America.
The findings are good fun, and they reflect something that's a little bit true of nearly everyone. It's not possible to keep track of the details of every issue, so everyone from the PM down delegates judgment to some extent: if someone we really respect tells us that the Public Affairs Act needs to be preserved/kept, our initial leaning is as least to listen positively to the arguments. If we're very busy or not very interested (as many people are not in politics) it's tempting to just take their view on trust. That, more than terror of the whips, is one reason why MPs tend to go with their parties in the mass of minor legislative votes.
The reverse is also true. People will offer an opinion on any issue that's been in the news. But we wildly exaggerate the extent to which it makes them rethink how they'll vote.
"John Major had a number of advantages. One was that after only 16 months in office, people were willing to give him the chance to show what he could do (the same chance they would have given Gordon Brown in 2007). Another advantage was Neil Kinnock. Cameron can take no comfort from the first, but nor should he from the second: while many potential Labour voters find Ed Miliband unconvincing, they do not see him as a liability."
Interesting to see that a wealth tax, and a promise of a job to everyone unemployed for a year look likely to reappear for 2015, though in 13 years of New Labour government these were not enacted.
Interesting to see advocacy for EU budget reform, sales of council housing, and targeting 5% inflation there also.
On topic, this is a great object lesson in tribalism and voter stupidity.
Why is it stupid for voters to trust either their President or the the leaders of their party? And as Nick Palmer reminds us, MPs behave in the same way: trusting the whips and party leaders. Even ministers are said often not to know what is in the bills they present until a day or two before standing up in the House.
Top polling by YouGov. I also liked Panetta-Burns, PPP's polling on a made-up deficit reduction plan.
Pollsters should be doing this kind of thing as a matter of course to give us a baseline to interpret the real results, in the same way that a medical study will have a placebo group. If a pollster tells us that 37% of voters think minister X should resign over affair Y, we should have a dummy poll telling us how many support the resignation of a made-up minister so that we can compare the current scandal to the Null Scandal.
On topic, this is a great object lesson in tribalism and voter stupidity.
Why is it stupid for voters to trust either their President or the the leaders of their party? And as Nick Palmer reminds us, MPs behave in the same way: trusting the whips and party leaders. Even ministers are said often not to know what is in the bills they present until a day or two before standing up in the House.
The poll shows that large numbers of voters will automatically oppose a measure supported by their political opponents, without further information about it, so your proposed mechanism is insufficient to rationalise the behaviour (which in any case seems dangerously naive to me and represents one of the major weaknesses in the behaviour of MPs). That's tribalism, I'd say.
And of course, it shows that many people are willing to venture opinions on subjects about which they know absolutely nothing. That's stupidity, I'd say.
Still 27 minutes of P2 to go. Massa's fastest so far, and let's hope (cf pb2) he stays there.
Interesting poll. It's a shame that some of the most interesting psych experiments (Milgram experiment, Stanley prison) are ethically dubious, because they threw up some fascinating results.
In the same way, decades ago psychologists deliberately frightened very young babies, and in so doing found that physical contact mattered more than appearance. This changed because babies had previously been kept separate from mothers, but afterwards were encouraged to be held a lot. For millions it will have been a benefit, but it's hard to argue the traumatised babies involved will be glad to have participated.
Oh, and on a similar note to the above polling there was a fun homophobic psych experiment (well, questionnaires) I read about. It was about gay rights. Most homophobes, obviously, were against gay people having equal rights regarding adoption and so forth. However, when informed gay people themselves were against themselves having such rights the homophobes did a volte-face and *wanted* them to have rights of adoption, and so forth.
So, disagreeing with the group they disliked mattered more than giving them greater rights.
On topic, this is a great object lesson in tribalism and voter stupidity.
Why is it stupid for voters to trust either their President or the the leaders of their party? And as Nick Palmer reminds us, MPs behave in the same way: trusting the whips and party leaders. Even ministers are said often not to know what is in the bills they present until a day or two before standing up in the House.
That shows a huge degree of incompetency over the management of detail.
@Tim I wasn't aware of the camapign to get the song to Number 1 until I read about it in the Mail and Telegraph. There was also an article containing private family information in the Mail about the Thatchers that left me feeling queazy. <blockquote class="Quote" rel="tim">@JosiasJessop
Of course the hysterical press campaign is driving the downloads now. They are like Mary Whitehouse searching for something to be disgusted by.
And I see anti-censorship campaigner Guido Fawkes is demanding censorship.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="Quote" rel="tim">@JosiasJessop
Of course the hysterical press campaign is driving the downloads now. They are like Mary Whitehouse searching for something to be disgusted by.
And I see anti-censorship campaigner Guido Fawkes is demanding censorship.</blockquote>
Whilst we may debate whether levels of certain crimes are rising or falling, the continued growth of the electronic media and its cheap availability to all has allowed the public pain and humiliation of the victims of crime to be prolonged.
More and more frequently, the press has accounts of people (frequently young girls) who have been abused or raped and their perpetrators of those crimes have posted videos and/or pictures of the action of those crimes on social networking sites such as Facebook. The frequent result has been that the crime victims have committed suicide.
It would appear that our criminal justice system is very slow to react to such events. Whilst it can be difficult to legally control the transnational owners of social networking sites (and I suspect that Facebook is not able to control its site any more), the perpetrators of such crimes are often known to the police who appear to be unable/unwilling to take any action.
At the same time, suspicion of anyone holding but not 'broadcasting' pictures of paedophilic activity brings down the full force of law and a probably a criminal record. Also the same happens if one uses any words that are deemed 'racist' or 'homophobic' etc, but these victims are not publicly and eternally branded as those depicted on Facebook (as copies of their personal abuse is often copied to other websites.)
Our forefathers in the Middle Ages used public humiliation to control those who offended public decency. Did they know more than we do? Of course they were not inhibited by an human rights legislation.
It may be a technical point, but I honestly can't recall seeing Thatcher free millions of people. I suspect I missed her standing next to Buzz Aldrin on the Sea of Tranquility as well.
It may be a technical point, but I honestly can't recall seeing Thatcher free millions of people. I suspect I missed her standing next to Buzz Aldrin on the Sea of Tranquility as well.
You were clearly never forced to join a Trade Union.
It may be a technical point, but I honestly can't recall seeing Thatcher free millions of people. I suspect I missed her standing next to Buzz Aldrin on the Sea of Tranquility as well.
Quite right!
It was the Greenham Common women who ended the Cold War and the TUC that helped engineer the downfall of Soviet oppression...
Ding Dong and Tramp Down the Dirt - well if some are sad enough to want to hear them again, and help tax avoiding big music and electronics firms profits - why not. Will keep someone in employment dispatching and delivering CDs if they are also ordered. Is there still time to download Gordon is a Moron or The W"nker's Song by Ivor Biggun.
I was sad enough to download music from Kate and Will's wedding, and wonder if there will be downloads of Margaret Thatcher's funeral music available later on Wednesday.
You've made it clear that you see Opposition to Section 28 and Thatchers position on the ANC as "middle class concerns"
I haven't heard your views on the doubling of crime during her term in office, the trebling of benefit dependency or this figure
"g. Social spending rose by more than 80 per cent in real terms under Thatcher, against “just” 50 per cent under New Labour. The number of people on incapacity benefit soared."
I don't recall using the phrase "middle class concerns" but lets ignore that.
As to the increase in crime and benefit dependency in the 1980s those were bad things but I suspect that both had increased substantially in the 1970s as well and likewise they would both have increased in similar countries around the world.
I do suspect that they would also have increased under whichever government and prime minister Britain had had during the 1980s.
But as you seem to have the numbers tim perhaps you could let us know the number of people who were benefit dependent in 1970, 1979, 1990, 1997 and 2010? I would be genuinely interested to see the changes.
As to the ANC I think it was perfectly justifiable to regard Nelson Mandela as a terrorist in the 1980s, he did after all plead guilty to acts of terrorism.
I would also say that those acts of terrorism were justifiable for someone from Mandela's background.
And that it was fortunate for South Africa that the ANC's military activities were such dismal failures otherwise the country might have fallen into civil war. Perhaps some people here would have preferred that as long as they could have blamed Thatcher for it?
"Staunchly anti-communist Margaret Thatcher was key in hastening the fall of the Iron Curtain, Poland's former president and anti-communist freedom icon Lech Walesa said Monday, hailing the late former British leader.
"She was a great person. She did a great deal for the world, along with (late US president) Ronald Reagan, pope John Paul II and Solidarity, she contributed to the demise of communism in Poland and Central Europe," an emotional Walesa told AFP."
Beds, baths, and even an X-ray machine are among equipment reported stolen from hospitals across Wales.
Wales' seven health boards were asked for a list of stolen property during the last five years under a Freedom of Information (FOI) request by BBC Wales.
The most expensive theft was £78,000 worth of cable. Across Wales, the list also includes wheelchairs, a Philips X-ray machine and a £4,128 Transit van.
Well she certainly wanted the Berlin Wall to stay up, and was pretty keen on Jaruzelski in Poland. Never mind arming the Khmer Rouge.
Since another_richard revealed you're a Brummy your posts just aren't the same. Gone is the sardonic scouse sharpness to be replaced by the Black Country monotony of Ozzie Osborne's brother. Timmy Osborne twinned with his cousin George, PB is somehow a lesser place today. :-(
Whilst we may debate whether levels of certain crimes are rising or falling, the continued growth of the electronic media and its cheap availability to all has allowed the public pain and humiliation of the victims of crime to be prolonged.
More and more frequently, the press has accounts of people (frequently young girls) who have been abused or raped and their perpetrators of those crimes have posted videos and/or pictures of the action of those crimes on social networking sites such as Facebook. The frequent result has been that the crime victims have committed suicide.
It would appear that our criminal justice system is very slow to react to such events. Whilst it can be difficult to legally control the transnational owners of social networking sites (and I suspect that Facebook is not able to control its site any more), the perpetrators of such crimes are often known to the police who appear to be unable/unwilling to take any action.
At the same time, suspicion of anyone holding but not 'broadcasting' pictures of paedophilic activity brings down the full force of law and a probably a criminal record. Also the same happens if one uses any words that are deemed 'racist' or 'homophobic' etc, but these victims are not publicly and eternally branded as those depicted on Facebook (as copies of their personal abuse is often copied to other websites.)
Our forefathers in the Middle Ages used public humiliation to control those who offended public decency. Did they know more than we do? Of course they were not inhibited by an human rights legislation.
I'm confused by your last para. Do you favour public humiliation for people we don't like, either as a private action or a public sanction? The rest of your post suggests you don't, but the last para seems to imply it was a good thing, regrettably blocked by human rights legislation. Are you suggesting that courts tweet humiliating messages as part of punishment, or that the police should do so without needing to bother with a trial, or that we all just tweet angrily at people we disapprove of, or what?
@CarlottaVance It is the first time I realised that Maggie's actions lead to increasing the diversity of the nation by setting in train the events that enabled people from Eastern Europe to eventually settle in the UK.
"Staunchly anti-communist Margaret Thatcher was key in hastening the fall of the Iron Curtain, Poland's former president and anti-communist freedom icon Lech Walesa said Monday, hailing the late former British leader.
"She was a great person. She did a great deal for the world, along with (late US president) Ronald Reagan, pope John Paul II and Solidarity, she contributed to the demise of communism in Poland and Central Europe," an emotional Walesa told AFP."
Was any prosecution ever undertaken or threatened under section 28?
No, because it didn't create a criminal offence - it was targeted at councils and their employees. It did have a chilling effect, partly because it wasn't clear exactly what it meant and basically anything which portrayed gay people in any kind of sympathetic light was seen as risky - see
Curiously enough mentioned in neither his Wiki entry nor constituency profile.....
......just as well no one holds wealthy parents or going to a posh school against anyone......
Nothings too good for the workers.
It looks like Chuka is making enemies. Personally, I am warming to him. I see why he fits so well into Millibands shadow cabinet. Both have inheireted well.
@CarlottaVance It is the first time I realised that Maggie's actions lead to increasing the diversity of the nation by setting in train the events that enabled people from Eastern Europe to eventually settle in the UK.
"Staunchly anti-communist Margaret Thatcher was key in hastening the fall of the Iron Curtain, Poland's former president and anti-communist freedom icon Lech Walesa said Monday, hailing the late former British leader.
"She was a great person. She did a great deal for the world, along with (late US president) Ronald Reagan, pope John Paul II and Solidarity, she contributed to the demise of communism in Poland and Central Europe," an emotional Walesa told AFP."
I suspect that was to be read with a touch of irony, but in fact her policies did enable lots of Poles to settle in the UK. And in another irony, her policies also led to an undermining of the UK as the most flexible place to do business in the EU when the Visegrad 4 subsequnetly joined. UK governments of all shades have been asleep as to what the opening of the East has meant to the UK economy and how to react.
The Chuka story is laughably weak. He seven years ago made a comment about the crapness of West End bars, which every Londoner will recognise and which is emphatically true. The jealousy over the Ibizan home just shows bumpkin Tory prejudices for what they are: only rightwingers are allowed to enjoy life. Pathetic.
@CarlottaVance It is the first time I realised that Maggie's actions lead to increasing the diversity of the nation by setting in train the events that enabled people from Eastern Europe to eventually settle in the UK.
Another feather in her cap! In particular I suspect she would have been keen to welcome the Poles after WWII
@Alanbrooke I might be wrong, but if I remember correctly, the idea was that the more E European countries that joined, the weaker would be the centralisation powers of the EU? The idea was to dilute the powers of the organisation and the E Europeans were seen as potential allies against the Franco-german bloc?
@CarlottaVance It is the first time I realised that Maggie's actions lead to increasing the diversity of the nation by setting in train the events that enabled people from Eastern Europe to eventually settle in the UK.
"Staunchly anti-communist Margaret Thatcher was key in hastening the fall of the Iron Curtain, Poland's former president and anti-communist freedom icon Lech Walesa said Monday, hailing the late former British leader.
"She was a great person. She did a great deal for the world, along with (late US president) Ronald Reagan, pope John Paul II and Solidarity, she contributed to the demise of communism in Poland and Central Europe," an emotional Walesa told AFP."
I suspect that was to be read with a touch of irony, but in fact her policies did enable lots of Poles to settle in the UK. And in another irony, her policies also led to an undermining of the UK as the most flexible place to do business in the EU when the Visegrad 4 subsequnetly joined. UK governments of all shades have been asleep as to what the opening of the East has meant to the UK economy and how to react.
Miss Plato, perhaps even more disturbing are his comments about May.
If he were sacked, what would his pension situation be?
Generally, if you're sacked from the police - you lose your pension rights, its a very touchy subject that requires you to either get to your 30yrs contracted service or to resign before it happens...
Slightly off point, but Visegrád is well worth a visit. It's a former capital of Hungary with a ruined castle on top of a hill on the bend in the Danube, with fantastic views. The walk up from the river is quite stiff, mind. And it's pronounced Vish-eh-grad (not Visa-grad as I originally imagined).
After WWII, they settled under the Atlee government. Also, used to go with a friend of mind to the Czech and Slovak Club for a decent beer near West Hampstead.
@CarlottaVance It is the first time I realised that Maggie's actions lead to increasing the diversity of the nation by setting in train the events that enabled people from Eastern Europe to eventually settle in the UK.
Another feather in her cap! In particular I suspect she would have been keen to welcome the Poles after WWII
Curiously enough mentioned in neither his Wiki entry nor constituency profile.....
......just as well no one holds wealthy parents or going to a posh school against anyone......
Yet more envious drivel from you. He is from a rich family? So what? The Labour Party is a broad church made up of people from all social classes.
And Labour posters never ever make something of an MPs parents wealth or the educational choices they made for them....no siree!
Point me to a post where I showed class prejudice. Arguing with you is like debating a childish schoolboy. "Yeah but.."
I didn't - my point was about Labour posters making the same class/wealth observations now being made about Chuka. Are you claiming such comments are not made?
Since you are such a Chuka fanboy, perhaps you could clarify what is meant by "Jetrosexual"!
Come on Bob, Chukka has shown himself to be a vain, arrogant, rich-as-feck, out of touch poshlad. We've got more than enough of those in all our mainstream parties, so he deserves as much ridicule as the rest of 'em.
Curiously enough mentioned in neither his Wiki entry nor constituency profile.....
......just as well no one holds wealthy parents or going to a posh school against anyone......
Yet more envious drivel from you. He is from a rich family? So what? The Labour Party is a broad church made up of people from all social classes.
And Labour posters never ever make something of an MPs parents wealth or the educational choices they made for them....no siree!
Point me to a post where I showed class prejudice. Arguing with you is like debating a childish schoolboy. "Yeah but.."
I didn't - my point was about Labour posters making the same class/wealth observations now being made about Chuka. Are you claiming such comments are not made?
Since you are such a Chuka fanboy, perhaps you could clarify what is meant by "Jetrosexual"!
It's proper "four legs good, two legs better" stuff.
After WWII, they settled under the Atlee government. Also, used to go with a friend of mind to the Czech and Slovak Club for a decent beer near West Hampstead.
@CarlottaVance It is the first time I realised that Maggie's actions lead to increasing the diversity of the nation by setting in train the events that enabled people from Eastern Europe to eventually settle in the UK.
Another feather in her cap! In particular I suspect she would have been keen to welcome the Poles after WWII
Which is why I suspect we will see far fewer Romanian/Bulgarian immigrants than we did Poles - there already being an established Polish diaspora here.
In a 2006 interview, Maude stated that the introduction of Section 28 legislation whilst he was in government (which banned councils from promoting homosexuality and led to the closure of gay support groups) was "a mistake", adding it might have even contributed to the AIDS death of his brother Charles, a homosexual, among others.
I might, or might not, have a ticket to go along tonight (I forget). So does anyone have any ideas for questions that might be asked?
Given that Thatcher was a scientist, and two of the panellists are lawyers, I'm tempted to ask whether there should be more scientists and fewer lawyers in politics...
Curiously enough mentioned in neither his Wiki entry nor constituency profile.....
......just as well no one holds wealthy parents or going to a posh school against anyone......
Yet more envious drivel from you. He is from a rich family? So what? The Labour Party is a broad church made up of people from all social classes.
And Labour posters never ever make something of an MPs parents wealth or the educational choices they made for them....no siree!
Point me to a post where I showed class prejudice. Arguing with you is like debating a childish schoolboy. "Yeah but.."
I didn't - my point was about Labour posters making the same class/wealth observations now being made about Chuka. Are you claiming such comments are not made?
Since you are such a Chuka fanboy, perhaps you could clarify what is meant by "Jetrosexual"!
I have gone from defending him from your pathetic bumpkin prejudices to becoming a fanboy. No room for shades of grey in your brain, clearly. I guess jetrosexual means a trendy, well presented, straight man who travels. It's a bit w*nky but quite normal for clubland - he is a former house DJ and from that culture. So what? At least he's lived a little.
On topic: Reminds me of the Daily show sketch - Asking people who won last night's debate on Hollywood Boulevard in Los Angeles.
And the overwhelming response was "I think Obama edged it", as one might expect in a heavily democrat area.
The problem ? The debate was that evening - it hadn't taken place yet !
O/T On "Ding dong" Well not to my taste but its a free world. The controversy and press coverage will probably drive sales amongst people who didn't even live in Thatcher's Govt.
Why do seemingly intelligent people not understand about their online presence being as important as their private, or professional one?
The bloke will probably lose his job, for not much really, other than having a hatred for Thatcher, and venting that hatred online.
Now, though, after one of their own has been fingered for dodgy tweets, the Police might have a think about chasing after other keyboard warriors.
I agree - I don't really think one's personal politics should have a bearing on one's employment provided your party isn't proscribed and you leave it at the door. However, when the Plod stamp all over a drunk teenager posting a rude tweet about Tom Daley's dead dad - then frankly its sauce for the gander.
This chap was clearly very stupid - that he tweets about the police/has a plod related Twitter name doesn't help as he's blurring the line between his private opinions and the public office he holds. So Misconduct in Public Office charges will no doubt be forthcoming as a result.
The stories about Chuka Umunna are amusing in a "feet of clay" sense, but they're hardly important. Lots of people have made snobby comments about others and lots of people have tinkered with their own Wikipedia entries. His bigger problem is that it's hard to imagine him defusing bigger problems with a deft and humorous confession of idiocy, because he appears to have too big an ego to do the smart thing.
Curiously enough mentioned in neither his Wiki entry nor constituency profile.....
......just as well no one holds wealthy parents or going to a posh school against anyone......
Yet more envious drivel from you. He is from a rich family? So what? The Labour Party is a broad church made up of people from all social classes.
And Labour posters never ever make something of an MPs parents wealth or the educational choices they made for them....no siree!
Point me to a post where I showed class prejudice. Arguing with you is like debating a childish schoolboy. "Yeah but.."
I didn't - my point was about Labour posters making the same class/wealth observations now being made about Chuka. Are you claiming such comments are not made?
Since you are such a Chuka fanboy, perhaps you could clarify what is meant by "Jetrosexual"!
I guess jetrosexual means a trendy, well presented, straight man who travels.
No doubt your defence would be just as robust if he was a Tory!
I look forward to your future defences of Tories from "bumpkin prejudices"
His favoured holiday destinations appear to be Ibiza and South Beach....
Comments
"I agree with George Osborne that the welfare system in Britain is broken":
Agree: 66
Disagree: 20
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/poll-reveals-more-half-people-1815925
Latest YouGov / The Sun results 11th April - CON 32%, LAB 42%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%; APP -33
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/hg95lj9txi/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-110413.pdf
Some interesting changes in the supplementaries, which may, or may not, be Thatcher related:
Succeeded in moving on & left its past behind it:
Con : 18 (+5)
Lab : 21 (-3)
Appeals to one section of society rather than whole country:
Con : 52 (+3)
Lab : 22 (+3)
App: -33
More Scotland VI Variations
Scotland Subsample
Cons: 25; LAB: 43; LD: 5; SNP 17; UKIP 8
Yesterday
Cons 17; Lab 40; LD 8; SNP 32; UKIP 2
Previous day:
Cons:14; LAB:35; LD 24; SNP 17; UKIP:9 :
All in all it's a good article, with some thought-provoking results.
I expect BenM to be along to condemn the "splitter" Blair for leading to Labour's "slump"! Or not.
As an aside, according to Guido the single's only been downloaded 20,000 times, yet is high on the provisional charts. My (perhaps faulty) memory from the 1980s was that a single needed at least an order of magnitude more sales in order to be at a hope of reaching No. 1 . Have single sales / downloads really fallen that much?
(fx: checks. It seems it vaties, but has dropped: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_UK_Singles_Chart_number_ones )
"TALKING of the importance of free speech . .
On Sunday, Ding Dong! The Witch Is Dead could well be in the Top Ten.
Hijacked by those celebrating Lady Thatcher’s death, the BBC is likely to play it on the Radio 1 chart show.
Yes, the very thought is truly abhorrent. But there is a big principle at stake.
As Tory MP Rob Wilson has said, Maggie “didn’t free millions of people in order to censor a tiny number of nasty idiots”.
The BBC and other broadcasters should play it — but clearly disassociate themselves from the sentiment behind it."
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/4508014/The-Sun-says-Building-for-the-future.html
Next they will suggest that the minister for Silly Walks is an anachronism, though I do accept that the ministry does struggle with contemporary attitudes to disability.
" As Tory MP Rob Wilson has said, Maggie “didn’t free millions of people in order to censor a tiny number of nasty idiots”."
Stuart Bell, co-founder of the PR firm DawBell, said: ‘A quote including “no recollection” for this particular situation is a PR crime. Phrases such as “I can’t say for certain” almost scream out “yes, it was me, I did it”.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2307514/Labours-Chuka-Umunna-remember-DID-use-law-firm-liken-Barack-Obama-Wikipedia.html#ixzz2QE5A4VxK
"What seems to fluctuate with YG is the Tory number. The Labour one is remarkably steady."
Correct - my own guess for what it's worth is there are more shy/disaffected Tories who can't be added to respond to the survey requests - I typically get about a dozen every month and delete most.
Personally, however, I'd play the record. It's poor taste and reflects very badly on the buyers, but the same could be said of two thirds of the top 40.
This will be filed under great victories for the left - up the with getting 44% in a yougov.
The reverse is also true. People will offer an opinion on any issue that's been in the news. But we wildly exaggerate the extent to which it makes them rethink how they'll vote.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/04/1992-the-last-elected-conservative-government/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=1992-the-last-elected-conservative-government&utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=fbd39c2a70-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email
"John Major had a number of advantages. One was that after only 16 months in
office, people were willing to give him the chance to show what he could do (the
same chance they would have given Gordon Brown in 2007). Another advantage was
Neil Kinnock. Cameron can take no comfort from the first, but nor should he from
the second: while many potential Labour voters find Ed Miliband unconvincing,
they do not see him as a liability."
http://www.labour-party.org.uk/manifestos/1979/1979-labour-manifesto.shtml
Interesting to see that a wealth tax, and a promise of a job to everyone unemployed for a year look likely to reappear for 2015, though in 13 years of New Labour government these were not enacted.
Interesting to see advocacy for EU budget reform, sales of council housing, and targeting 5% inflation there also.
Pollsters should be doing this kind of thing as a matter of course to give us a baseline to interpret the real results, in the same way that a medical study will have a placebo group. If a pollster tells us that 37% of voters think minister X should resign over affair Y, we should have a dummy poll telling us how many support the resignation of a made-up minister so that we can compare the current scandal to the Null Scandal.
And of course, it shows that many people are willing to venture opinions on subjects about which they know absolutely nothing. That's stupidity, I'd say.
Still 27 minutes of P2 to go. Massa's fastest so far, and let's hope (cf pb2) he stays there.
Interesting poll. It's a shame that some of the most interesting psych experiments (Milgram experiment, Stanley prison) are ethically dubious, because they threw up some fascinating results.
In the same way, decades ago psychologists deliberately frightened very young babies, and in so doing found that physical contact mattered more than appearance. This changed because babies had previously been kept separate from mothers, but afterwards were encouraged to be held a lot. For millions it will have been a benefit, but it's hard to argue the traumatised babies involved will be glad to have participated.
Oh, and on a similar note to the above polling there was a fun homophobic psych experiment (well, questionnaires) I read about. It was about gay rights. Most homophobes, obviously, were against gay people having equal rights regarding adoption and so forth. However, when informed gay people themselves were against themselves having such rights the homophobes did a volte-face and *wanted* them to have rights of adoption, and so forth.
So, disagreeing with the group they disliked mattered more than giving them greater rights.
So his five years of faux outraged posturing regarding it here turned out to be all froth.
It was merely a question of pressing the buttons marked outrage.
Never mind tim 99% of people wouldn't know what Section 28 amounted to either and 90% wouldn't care one way or another even if they did.
Incidentally did you know it was the Thatcher government which legalised homosexuality in both Scotland and Northern Ireland?
http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2013/04/people_in_the_south_are_not_so.html#incart_river_default
Mrs T was also a supporter of legalising homosexuality among men in the 1960's; homosexuality amongst women was never illegal, I believe.
As Tory MP Rob Wilson has said, Maggie - “didn’t free millions of people in order to censor a tiny number of nasty idiots”.
Nail on head - Sounds like an eminently sensible chap.
I wasn't aware of the camapign to get the song to Number 1 until I read about it in the Mail and Telegraph.
There was also an article containing private family information in the Mail about the Thatchers that left me feeling queazy. <blockquote class="Quote" rel="tim">@JosiasJessop
Of course the hysterical press campaign is driving the downloads now.
They are like Mary Whitehouse searching for something to be disgusted by.
And I see anti-censorship campaigner Guido Fawkes is demanding censorship.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="Quote" rel="tim">@JosiasJessop
Of course the hysterical press campaign is driving the downloads now.
They are like Mary Whitehouse searching for something to be disgusted by.
And I see anti-censorship campaigner Guido Fawkes is demanding censorship.</blockquote>
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02533/120413-MATT-web_2533890a.jpg
Whilst we may debate whether levels of certain crimes are rising or falling, the continued growth of the electronic media and its cheap availability to all has allowed the public pain and humiliation of the victims of crime to be prolonged.
More and more frequently, the press has accounts of people (frequently young girls) who have been abused or raped and their perpetrators of those crimes have posted videos and/or pictures of the action of those crimes on social networking sites such as Facebook. The frequent result has been that the crime victims have committed suicide.
It would appear that our criminal justice system is very slow to react to such events. Whilst it can be difficult to legally control the transnational owners of social networking sites (and I suspect that Facebook is not able to control its site any more), the perpetrators of such crimes are often known to the police who appear to be unable/unwilling to take any action.
At the same time, suspicion of anyone holding but not 'broadcasting' pictures of paedophilic activity brings down the full force of law and a probably a criminal record. Also the same happens if one uses any words that are deemed 'racist' or 'homophobic' etc, but these victims are not publicly and eternally branded as those depicted on Facebook (as copies of their personal abuse is often copied to other websites.)
Our forefathers in the Middle Ages used public humiliation to control those who offended public decency. Did they know more than we do? Of course they were not inhibited by an human rights legislation.
Can't let one day go by.
Can't let one thread go by.
Can't let one comment go by.
Get a life.
Will it ever make Number 1?
It was the Greenham Common women who ended the Cold War and the TUC that helped engineer the downfall of Soviet oppression...
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4883826/Labour-snob-Chuks-1m-Ibiza-pad-no-West-End-trash-allowed.html
I was sad enough to download music from Kate and Will's wedding, and wonder if there will be downloads of Margaret Thatcher's funeral music available later on Wednesday.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3rD8fUmbRA
Curiously enough mentioned in neither his Wiki entry nor constituency profile.....
......just as well no one holds wealthy parents or going to a posh school against anyone......
As to the increase in crime and benefit dependency in the 1980s those were bad things but I suspect that both had increased substantially in the 1970s as well and likewise they would both have increased in similar countries around the world.
I do suspect that they would also have increased under whichever government and prime minister Britain had had during the 1980s.
But as you seem to have the numbers tim perhaps you could let us know the number of people who were benefit dependent in 1970, 1979, 1990, 1997 and 2010? I would be genuinely interested to see the changes.
As to the ANC I think it was perfectly justifiable to regard Nelson Mandela as a terrorist in the 1980s, he did after all plead guilty to acts of terrorism.
I would also say that those acts of terrorism were justifiable for someone from Mandela's background.
And that it was fortunate for South Africa that the ANC's military activities were such dismal failures otherwise the country might have fallen into civil war. Perhaps some people here would have preferred that as long as they could have blamed Thatcher for it?
"Staunchly anti-communist Margaret Thatcher was key in hastening the fall of the Iron Curtain, Poland's former president and anti-communist freedom icon Lech Walesa said Monday, hailing the late former British leader.
"She was a great person. She did a great deal for the world, along with (late US president) Ronald Reagan, pope John Paul II and Solidarity, she contributed to the demise of communism in Poland and Central Europe," an emotional Walesa told AFP."
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130408/thatcher-hastened-fall-iron-curtain-polands-lech-walesa
Wales' seven health boards were asked for a list of stolen property during the last five years under a Freedom of Information (FOI) request by BBC Wales.
The most expensive theft was £78,000 worth of cable. Across Wales, the list also includes wheelchairs, a Philips X-ray machine and a £4,128 Transit van.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-22109590
Hospitals are quick enough to impose fines for over-parking - but to lose a transit van and beds - MODERATED
It is the first time I realised that Maggie's actions lead to increasing the diversity of the nation by setting in train the events that enabled people from Eastern Europe to eventually settle in the UK.
http://web.archive.org/web/20070818063344/http://www.knittingcircle.org.uk/gleanings2889.html
(picked this link up from wikipedia's piece on the Section)
tim, if I have wrongly tagged you as coming from Birmingham then let me apologise.
Your knowledge of things Brummy suggested as much to me.
With the exception of Aston Villa's celebrity fans Birmingham must be the most unfashionable of Britain's cities.
And with that a good day to all at PB.
It looks like Chuka is making enemies. Personally, I am warming to him. I see why he fits so well into Millibands shadow cabinet. Both have inheireted well.
RT @CataNigra: I hope M Thatcher's death was degrading and painful, tweets sick Scotland Yard sergeant http://t.co/aXLmrlkxZM via @MailOnline
RT @PaulGoodmanCH: "We have the sixth largest aid programme in the western world." #Thatcher #CompassionateConservatism #87Manifesto
I might be wrong, but if I remember correctly, the idea was that the more E European countries that joined, the weaker would be the centralisation powers of the EU? The idea was to dilute the powers of the organisation and the E Europeans were seen as potential allies against the Franco-german bloc?
If he were sacked, what would his pension situation be?
That was the theory, it hasn't worked in practice.
The bloke will probably lose his job, for not much really, other than having a hatred for Thatcher, and venting that hatred online.
Now, though, after one of their own has been fingered for dodgy tweets, the Police might have a think about chasing after other keyboard warriors.
Also, used to go with a friend of mind to the Czech and Slovak Club for a decent beer near West Hampstead.
Since you are such a Chuka fanboy, perhaps you could clarify what is meant by "Jetrosexual"!
Come on Bob, Chukka has shown himself to be a vain, arrogant, rich-as-feck, out of touch poshlad.
We've got more than enough of those in all our mainstream parties, so he deserves as much ridicule as the rest of 'em.
I might, or might not, have a ticket to go along tonight (I forget). So does anyone have any ideas for questions that might be asked?
Given that Thatcher was a scientist, and two of the panellists are lawyers, I'm tempted to ask whether there should be more scientists and fewer lawyers in politics...
And the overwhelming response was "I think Obama edged it", as one might expect in a heavily democrat area.
The problem ? The debate was that evening - it hadn't taken place yet !
O/T On "Ding dong" Well not to my taste but its a free world. The controversy and press coverage will probably drive sales amongst people who didn't even live in Thatcher's Govt.
This chap was clearly very stupid - that he tweets about the police/has a plod related Twitter name doesn't help as he's blurring the line between his private opinions and the public office he holds. So Misconduct in Public Office charges will no doubt be forthcoming as a result.
Conservatives are so tribal.
http://tinyurl.com/d3gsay8
I look forward to your future defences of Tories from "bumpkin prejudices"
His favoured holiday destinations appear to be Ibiza and South Beach....