Sarah Wollaston's twitter remark is neither funny nor informative - just gratuitously trying to stir up trouble. She is becoming a liability to the Conservative party.
Her historical position on the EU would be pretzel-shaped.....
Williamson isn't after an extra £20bn. He's after an extra £20bn per year, which should be enough. I agree that 10 years wouldn't be enough time to get it finished but it would be long enough to get the contracts in place and building underway.
So he's asking for a 40% increase in defence spending? I wonder if the fireplace showroom has kept his job open because I have a feeling the stupid twat might be needing it.
Nunuone’s posts on the Dems are absolutely spot on. I follow Dems/those on the American Left on twitter, they are 100% done with Trump voters (I don’t blame them). Dems will be looking to other ways to win, like as Southam has noted. Biden is especially unlikely to be the nominee in this MeToo era.
However, for a trading nation, the sea-lanes of the world need to be kept open, which means a strong navy able to project force - which in turn means having both carriers commissioned and usable, together with necessary escorts, plus sufficient destroyers / frigates to patrol elsewhere. We should also have an army capable of deploying at least 30,000 on major extended overseas operations such as the Gulf or Iraq Wars, with enough spare to cope with either a secondary conflict or domestic disturbance duties. So yes, there should be a sizable increase in spending, incremented over 5-10 years.
Yeah, that's going to take a lot more than a sizable increase and it's going to take a lot longer than 10 years.
To provision two carrier strike g.
Pompey and Guzz are already full so there isn't the dock space for all of this (tories closed Portland and sold it off) so we need another Naval base on the Channel. Has anyone seen those forms we use for compulsory purchase orders?
Naturally we don't have anywhere near enough crew for all of this so they'll have to be recruited, trained and seasoned.
20bn and ten years wouldn't touch the sides. The hulls themselves are an expensive and time consuming proposition but all that pales when compared to building the supporting infrastructure and having sufficient people to crew them.
Williamson isn't after an extra £20bn. He's after an extra £20bn per year, which should be enough. I agree that 10 years wouldn't be enough time to get it finished but it would be long enough to get the contracts in place and building underway.
As an aside, you don't necessarily need both carriers operating simulataneously, though they should be able to in an emergency, even if it means having to strip support from elsewhere. But we should have both operational, so that there's always at least one at sea or ready to go to sea at any given time, while the other's down for servicing, refitting and so on. Granted, that still means having the facilities to support them and the aircraft to operate from them, but it doesn't necessarily mean two full carrier groups' worth of escorts.
So you advocate completely repositioning the UK's strategic global role?
I mean it sounds great (subject of course to @Dura_Ace's reality check it ain't gonna fkin happen, etc) but why? Why now?
Is it Brexit? I think it is for @Casino_Royale who is feeling a bit insecure right now, but you also?
No, I advocate putting in place the hardware, personnel and attitude necessary to enable the strategic global role the UK currently claims (but can't really deliver on).
However, for a trading nation, the sea-lanes of the world need to be kept open, which means a strong navy able to project force - which in turn means havilict or domestic disturbance duties. So yes, there should be a sizable increase in spending, incremented over 5-10 years.
Yeah, that's going to take a lot more than a sizable increase and it's going to take a lot longer than 10 years.
To provision two carrier strike g.
Pompey and Guzz are already full so there isn't the dock space for all of this (tories closed Portland and sold it off) so we need another Naval base on the Channel. Has anyone seen those forms we use for compulsory purchase orders?
Naturally we don't have anywhere near enough crew for all of this so they'll have to be recruited, trained and seasoned.
20bn and ten years wouldn't touch the sides. The hulls themselves are an expensive and time consuming proposition but all that pales when compared to building the supporting infrastructure and having sufficient people to crew them.
Williamson isn't after an extra £20bn. He's after an extra £20bn per year, which should be enough. I agree that 10 years wouldn't be enough time to get it finished but it would be long enough to get the contracts in place and building underway.
As an aside, you don't necessarily need both carriers operating simulataneously, though they should be able to in an emergency, even if it means having to strip support from elsewhere. But we should have both operational, so that there's always at least one at sea or ready to go to sea at any given time, while the other's down for servicing, refitting and so on. Granted, that still means having the facilities to support them and the aircraft to operate from them, but it doesn't necessarily mean two full carrier groups' worth of escorts.
So you advocate completely repositioning the UK's strategic global role?
I mean it sounds great (subject of course to @Dura_Ace's reality check it ain't gonna fkin happen, etc) but why? Why now?
Is it Brexit? I think it is for @Casino_Royale who is feeling a bit insecure right now, but you also?
No, I advocate putting in place the hardware, personnel and attitude necessary to enable the strategic global role the UK currently claims (but can't really deliver on).
Ah I see. But I think it is only CGS who is claiming, or in the past has ever claimed that.
Sarah Wollaston's twitter remark is neither funny nor informative - just gratuitously trying to stir up trouble. She is becoming a liability to the Conservative party.
It is funny, unless you are BoZo or stupid enough to vote for his bus.
Still, nice to see Brexiteers determined to reach out and try to heal the divisions they created.
A lot of people saying Dems need someone like Biden or Bernie to win white working class voters.
Sorry that is NOT where the Democratic base is. They will not nominate a white man for 2020, identity politics still reigns supreme in the party for better or for worse (of course the right is just as bad when it comes to identity politics if not worse).
Look at Dem nominee's for open House seats, women are way over preforming men and ideology is playing very little part in it apart from the far left candidates getting mostly badly beaten.
Winning the south is key to winning the Democratic nominee since Black voters play a huge role in Dem primaries, punching well above their weight, therefore Harris has a very good shot at the nominee whether she would win in an General I'm not sure. But she's not that left wing as some think except maybe on immigration but America is well to the left on immigration to Britain anyway. Trump is an outlier who got fewer voter then McCain and out of touch Romney.
In the rustbelt that decides the EC at the moment a tough on immigration and anti globalisation message is what they want currently
A lot of people saying Dems need someone like Biden or Bernie to win white working class voters.
Sorry that is NOT where the Democratic base is. They will not nominate a white man for 2020, identity politics still reigns supreme in the party for better or for worse (of course the right is just as bad when it comes to identity politics if not worse).
Look at Dem nominee's for open House seats, women are way over preforming men and ideology is playing very little part in it apart from the far left candidates getting mostly badly beaten.
On current Democratic primary polls Biden and Sanders lead followed by Warren, the likes of Harris are barely more than an asterisk.
It is pointless Democrats building huge leads in coastal states they win easily if they narrowly lose swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan and hence lose the Electoral College
"One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a London currency trading company after he moved into politics. He twice told the world on election night that Leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
Williamson isn't after an extra £20bn. He's after an extra £20bn per year, which should be enough. I agree that 10 years wouldn't be enough time to get it finished but it would be long enough to get the contracts in place and building underway.
So he's asking for a 40% increase in defence spending? I wonder if the fireplace showroom has kept his job open because I have a feeling the stupid twat might be needing it.
No, this was the Mail quote: "When Mr Williamson said he needed his own £20 billion – a minimum of £2 billion a year extra for the next decade – to avoid damaging defence cuts, Mrs May questioned whether the UK had to be a ‘tier one’ military power...." So around 4 or 5% ?
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
She set the precedent with not permanently removing the whip from Zac Goldsmith over his antics Heathrow (and not standing a candidate against him in the by election)
Interesting that it is a pair of adulterers acting shamefully over Heathrow.
"One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a London currency trading company after he moved into politics. He twice told the world on election night that Leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
Pre-Sunderland, most of us thought Remain had edged it.
I bet on Leave, not because I expected Leave to win, but because the odds against Leave were so absurd.
However, for a trading nation, the sea-lanes of the world need to be kept open, which means a strong navy able to project force - which in turn means having both carriers commissioned and usable, together with necessary escorts, plus sufficient destroyers / frigates to patrol elsewhere. We should also have an army capable of deploying at least 30,000 on major extended overseas operations such as the Gulf or Iraq Wars, with enough spare to cope with either a secondary conflict or domestic disturbance duties. So yes, there should be a sizable increase in spending, incremented over 5-10 years.
Yeah, that's going to take a lot more than a sizable increase and it's going to take a lot longer than 10 years.
To provision two carrier strike groups simultaneously you'd have to double the size of RN surface combatant fleet and acquire another three Astutes. The RFA is inadequate for what we're doing now so triple tanker and solid supply hulls. That will need a great deal of vertrep and ASW support so we're probably into increasing the size of the FAA rotary wing fleet. Now Culdrose isn't big enough so let's build another NAS. We probably need at least another 10-12 F-35s for the second air wing. Now Marham isn't big enough. Maybe we can buy Coltishall back and demolish the solar farm.
Pompey and Guzz are already full so there isn't the dock space for all of this (tories closed Portland and sold it off) so we need another Naval base on the Channel. Has anyone seen those forms we use for compulsory purchase orders?
Naturally we don't have anywhere near enough crew for all of this so they'll have to be recruited, trained and seasoned.
20bn and ten years wouldn't touch the sides. The hulls themselves are an expensive and time consuming proposition but all that pales when compared to building the supporting infrastructure and having sufficient people to crew them.
Totally agree - running our own blue water carrier fleet isn't affordable on our own, particularly with F35s (which is perhaps one reason the joint European force isn't a completely crazy idea).
In any event, missiles like the Chinese DF-21D, Russian Kh-47M2 and even the Indian BrahMos are rendering carriers obsolete. The US can afford them - and perhaps develop the systems to protect them - but for us, it's a vanity project.
Rather than dreaming about projecting force in former colonial outposts, the object of defence spending ought to be to make it more trouble than it's worth to fuck with us.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
So we don't need to be in the EU for the EU to need our help? Interesting.....
There are multiple ironies in that story - France’s defence minister, Florence Parly, told the newspaper Le Figaro on Sunday: “Defence Europe requires a common strategic culture … The deadlines and decisions in the EU are still much too long compared to the urgency that can arise from a critical situation in a country where Europeans would consider that there is a strong stake for their security.”
The European Intervention Initiative is outside the EU’s structures, so will allow for full UK involvement after Brexit.
Parly said: “This is clearly an initiative that allows some non-EU states to associate. The UK has been very good because it wants to maintain cooperation with Europe beyond bilateral ties.”
The UK has traditionally been wary of efforts to build a European defence cooperation that could challenge Nato structures, but has become a champion of such initiatives since the vote to leave the EU... - but at root it is about common interests and common sense.
Which is how we (and the EU) ought to be approaching the Brexit negotiations.
"One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a London currency trading company after he moved into politics. He twice told the world on election night that Leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
Pre-Sunderland, most of us thought Remain had edged it.
I bet on Leave, not because I expected Leave to win, but because the odds against Leave were so absurd.
From what I know of polling companies, I think it is very unlikely that they would have secretly commissioned polls, with a view to selling the data to a favoured few clients, which were at variance with their eve of poll figures.
I'm pretty sure Farage did believe that Remain had narrowly won.
"One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a London currency trading company after he moved into politics. He twice told the world on election night that Leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
Pre-Sunderland, most of us thought Remain had edged it.
I bet on Leave, not because I expected Leave to win, but because the odds against Leave were so absurd.
OK, but read the article anyway - it's quite interesting. Could they be implying that Farage may have been ramping for his City trading friends?
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
If the Tories are whipped to support and manage only a couple of abstentions and Zac voting against, then it should pass if the SNP abstain even with everyone else against.
If the SNP vote against then it could be very close and be up to the DUP.
"One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a London currency trading company after he moved into politics. He twice told the world on election night that Leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
Pre-Sunderland, most of us thought Remain had edged it.
I bet on Leave, not because I expected Leave to win, but because the odds against Leave were so absurd.
OK, but read the article anyway - it's quite interesting. Could they be implying that Farage may have been ramping for his City trading friends?
Yes, I did read the article.
I don't believe that polling companies release false information, so that their clients can make a killing. They make most of their money through market research, and so they need their eve of poll figures to be as accurate as possible.
"One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a London currency trading company after he moved into politics. He twice told the world on election night that Leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
Pre-Sunderland, most of us thought Remain had edged it.
I bet on Leave, not because I expected Leave to win, but because the odds against Leave were so absurd.
OK, but read the article anyway - it's quite interesting. Could they be implying that Farage may have been ramping for his City trading friends?
Have not read it, but I expect some hedge funds had some Brexit believers at the helm and shorted the pound. Others may have expected a remain vote and didn't. Obviously those that got it wrong don't make a story as getting it wrong simply meant your sterling got devalued overnight along with the rest of the country's.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
Agreed. Boris's chances of leading the Tories must now be minimal yet, tragically, he still seems to harbour such ambitions, no matter how deluded. Hence his constant pandering to the Brexit hard Right who, we must assume, he believes can still anoint him.
I think what you meant to say was "Hey rcs1000, you're absolutely right. Look at the history below, and remember that Johnson could probably be pegged as a loss too."
As pointed out, you could add Truman to the list too. But a further point you don't seem to have considered is (a) how closely clustered those defeats are in a time when America was suffering economically and socially appeared next to ungovernable and (b) that some really surprising names are in the other list. Truman was re-elected to general astonishment. Eisenhower suffered two heart attacks before re-election. Clinton was scandal struck even before Lewinsky (Whitewater springs to mind). George W. Bush was unimpressive and was already mired in Iraq. Moreover, given Ford's unique status as an unelected president, arguably he doesn't count.
My point is that without black swan events, social turmoil, economic meltdown and a long time in office, it's bloody difficult to shift incumbents. Indeed, their opponents often seem to just go through the motions (Dole in 1996, Goldwater 1964, Mondale 1984 and Romney 2012 all spring to mind). I can see how this could easily apply to Trump, I'm just saying we shouldn't assume it. As incumbent, he holds three aces.
Remember though, that Clinton was reelected because Perot stood again in 1996.
My point is that incumbents lose about one in four times. Equally, though, the record of Presidents improving their position between first election and second is about fifty-fifty.
Obama: worse Bush II: better Clinton: better Bush I: worse Reagan: better Carter: worse Nixon: worse
So, I would say that - all things being equal - there should be about a 66% chance of Trump being reelected. However, all things are not equal, and so I'd go with something closer to 50:50, and maybe slightly worse.
Nixon did much better in 1972 compared with his narrow win over Humphrey in 1968!
"One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a London currency trading company after he moved into politics. He twice told the world on election night that Leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
Pre-Sunderland, most of us thought Remain had edged it.
I bet on Leave, not because I expected Leave to win, but because the odds against Leave were so absurd.
OK, but read the article anyway - it's quite interesting. Could they be implying that Farage may have been ramping for his City trading friends?
Have not read it, but I expect some hedge funds had some Brexit believers at the helm and shorted the pound. Others may have expected a remain vote and didn't. Obviously those that got it wrong don't make a story as getting it wrong simply meant your sterling got devalued overnight along with the rest of the country's.
It would have been impossible to construct an accurate exit poll, of the type that John Curtice does on election nights, because that can only be done when you have previous votes to compare the figures with. Some banks did commission private exit polls, but if any were accurate, it would have been by sheer luck. Even if Farage had seen a private poll which put Leave ahead, there was no reason to suppose it was more accurate than any of the published polls.
Meh - these attacks on Boris for his long and correctly held view that LHR is a toilet that should be abandoned are simply a proxy for Brexit.
Dry your eyes Remainers - isn't the bigger picture is that the Chinese would have built the Thames Estuary airport but our crap govt of Grayling, May and Hammond go for the poundland option ?
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
Corbyn would easily beat Gove on current polls and Gove knows that which is why he will likely back Boris who polls better
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
I’d be amazed if he’s got support among the MPs. He didn’t last time, and has been underwhelming in a big job since then.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
He seems to have done himself more damage by not resigning than he would have done had he resigned.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
Corbyn would easily beat Gove on current polls and Gove knows that which is why he will likely back Boris who polls better
Are not polls created by "experts"? I'm sure Gove said everyone was tired of listening to experts..
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
He seems to have done himself more damage by not resigning than he would have done had he resigned.
Resigning about something other than Brexit could have been quite smart. He would be ready to step in if/when May falls, but avoids bringing her down himself in such a way that he has to provide a clear alternative.
I've been putting bets on Harris since March 2017.
It became pretty clear early on that the Democrats were going to go for the 'diversity' candidate and hope that the demographic change and a charged-up base would deliver the presidency to the Democrats.
I'm not so sure, to be honest. Trump could possibly win Minnesota in '20, he came within 45,000 votes of winning it in '16. Ditto New Hampshire, Colorado and even Nevada...
Every vote won off an opponent is worth two from people who didn't vote last time, coming out to support you. If the Dems have simply written off blue collar white voters in the mid-West, then they'll be making their job harder.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
He seems to have done himself more damage by not resigning than he would have done had he resigned.
Resigning about something other than Brexit could have been quite smart. He would be ready to step in if/when May falls, but avoids bringing her down himself in such a way that he has to provide a clear alternative.
I've been putting bets on Harris since March 2017.
It became pretty clear early on that the Democrats were going to go for the 'diversity' candidate and hope that the demographic change and a charged-up base would deliver the presidency to the Democrats.
I'm not so sure, to be honest. Trump could possibly win Minnesota in '20, he came within 45,000 votes of winning it in '16. Ditto New Hampshire, Colorado and even Nevada...
I think that local roots and identity politics have some impact, but these are easy to exagerate.
Redneck Evengelicals in the South and Midwest were quite happy to vote for the millionaire New York Yankee huckster, with a history of serial adultery and not going to church.
Policies and campaign do actually matter a bit, even in culture war ridden USA.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
He seems to have done himself more damage by not resigning than he would have done had he resigned.
His bank balance is £70k a year better off if he doesn’t resign!
Presumably Trump's now going to tweet about how shit Harley Davidsons are, and his fans will stop buying them, and the Dems will respond by talking them up. By 2020 all brands will be either Republican or Democratic.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
He seems to have done himself more damage by not resigning than he would have done had he resigned.
Resigning about something other than Brexit could have been quite smart. He would be ready to step in if/when May falls, but avoids bringing her down himself in such a way that he has to provide a clear alternative.
Agreed. I am a bit baffled by the fact he has missed this obvious opportunity. More evidence for the case that he is even more of a buffoon than he pretends to be.
In any event, missiles like the Chinese DF-21D, Russian Kh-47M2 and even the Indian BrahMos are rendering carriers obsolete.
So obsolete that China, India, Turkey and Japan are all getting into the carrier game.
More seriously, look at where they are aiming to project power - pretty well in their own backyards (with the possible exception of China, which is attempting to rival the US), which are to some extent territory protected by those same missiles.
And China wants Taiwan back.
What use is a carrier group or two to the UK, on its own ?
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
Corbyn would easily beat Gove on current polls and Gove knows that which is why he will likely back Boris who polls better
Are not polls created by "experts"? I'm sure Gove said everyone was tired of listening to experts..
In any event, missiles like the Chinese DF-21D, Russian Kh-47M2 and even the Indian BrahMos are rendering carriers obsolete.
So obsolete that China, India, Turkey and Japan are all getting into the carrier game.
More seriously, look at where they are aiming to project power - pretty well in their own backyards (with the possible exception of China, which is attempting to rival the US), which are to some extent territory protected by those same missiles.
The way things are going in the US, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump ends up "projecting power" in his own backyard in a very direct way.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
He seems to have done himself more damage by not resigning than he would have done had he resigned.
His bank balance is £70k a year better off if he doesn’t resign!
Not sure about that, people pay to listen (F* knows why) to any old and absolubte guff spouted from anyone with the vaguest connection to Gov't and he could probably do more of that from the back benches.
No doubt @Alanbrooke is all over this, but an RTL poll shows that Merkel is more popular in Bavaria than the leader of the CSU and 75% of people say other issues are more important than migration.
I've been putting bets on Harris since March 2017.
It became pretty clear early on that the Democrats were going to go for the 'diversity' candidate and hope that the demographic change and a charged-up base would deliver the presidency to the Democrats.
I'm not so sure, to be honest. Trump could possibly win Minnesota in '20, he came within 45,000 votes of winning it in '16. Ditto New Hampshire, Colorado and even Nevada...
Latest Democratic primary poll including Harris has Biden 27% Sanders 14% Harris 4%
"One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a London currency trading company after he moved into politics. He twice told the world on election night that Leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
Pre-Sunderland, most of us thought Remain had edged it.
I bet on Leave, not because I expected Leave to win, but because the odds against Leave were so absurd.
OK, but read the article anyway - it's quite interesting. Could they be implying that Farage may have been ramping for his City trading friends?
Yes, I did read the article.
I don't believe that polling companies release false information, so that their clients can make a killing. They make most of their money through market research, and so they need their eve of poll figures to be as accurate as possible.
Neither do I - and that's not what the article said. Here are some of the best bits:
"Boulton jumped straight in with a huge exclusive, declaring he had breaking news. Nigel Farage, the global face of the Brexit campaign, had given Sky what sounded like a concession.
The news pushed the U.K.’s currency up—herding investors toward a cliff hours ahead of one of the largest crashes for any major currency since the birth of the modern global financial system. Trillions of dollars in asset values would be wiped off the books, but not just yet.
Some hedge funds gained confidence, through private exit polls, that most Britons had voted to leave the EU, or that the vote was far closer than the public believed—knowledge pollsters provided while voting was still underway and hours ahead of official tallies. These hedge funds were in the perfect position to earn fortunes by short selling the British pound.
The organizations grew so close that Survation once based its phone operators in UKIP headquarters, according to a knowledgeable source, and Lyons-Lowe became a friend and key adviser to Farage.
The published accounts differ, but both say that Farage had learned the results of an unidentified, financial-services exit poll well before the polls closed at 10 p.m. These accounts also say that Farage learned the results before giving his concession statement to Sky at roughly 9:40 p.m., which the network then aired within seconds of the polls closing at 10 p.m."
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
Corbyn would easily beat Gove on current polls and Gove knows that which is why he will likely back Boris who polls better
Are not polls created by "experts"? I'm sure Gove said everyone was tired of listening to experts..
Meh - these attacks on Boris for his long and correctly held view that LHR is a toilet that should be abandoned are simply a proxy for Brexit.
Dry your eyes Remainers - isn't the bigger picture is that the Chinese would have built the Thames Estuary airport but our crap govt of Grayling, May and Hammond go for the poundland option ?
The problem with that is that the battle has been lost. I argued for Boris Island or a variant of it, and was disappointed when the option did not go through to the second round.
Then I was faced with a choice: 1) accept I had lost and move on with a solution that is workable, but not optimal. 2) to continue arguing for an option that had been rejected, and attempt to kybosh it at every turn.
The second of these will lead to further delays on something that is IMO an absolutely critical piece of infrastructure. Worse, if the NIMBY protestors against LH3 succeed, you can guarantee that the campaigners against any other option - BI, Gatwick, Stansted etc - will be thoroughly enlivened, and we'll go through this decade-long mess again, and still not end up with a solution.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
He seems to have done himself more damage by not resigning than he would have done had he resigned.
His bank balance is £70k a year better off if he doesn’t resign!
Not sure about that, people pay to listen (F* knows why) to any old and absolubte guff spouted from anyone with the vaguest connection to Gov't and he could probably do more of that from the back benches.
Indeed. I am sure someone on here made a convincing case a few months back that he'd have to resign soon to maintain his expensive lifestyle. He could earn a lot more by not being in the cabinet.
I've been putting bets on Harris since March 2017.
It became pretty clear early on that the Democrats were going to go for the 'diversity' candidate and hope that the demographic change and a charged-up base would deliver the presidency to the Democrats.
I'm not so sure, to be honest. Trump could possibly win Minnesota in '20, he came within 45,000 votes of winning it in '16. Ditto New Hampshire, Colorado and even Nevada...
Latest Democratic primary poll including Harris has Biden 27% Sanders 14% Harris 4%
Yeah, but 3 years out who predicted Trump, or Obama, or Bill Clinton etc?
It is a bit too early for anything more than token bets. Sanders and Biden are too old, and are yesterdays men. They will not run, and if they do they will not win. Their endorsement may be important too.
Meh - these attacks on Boris for his long and correctly held view that LHR is a toilet that should be abandoned are simply a proxy for Brexit.
Dry your eyes Remainers - isn't the bigger picture is that the Chinese would have built the Thames Estuary airport but our crap govt of Grayling, May and Hammond go for the poundland option ?
The problem with that is that the battle has been lost. I argued for Boris Island or a variant of it, and was disappointed when the option did not go through to the second round.
Then I was faced with a choice: 1) accept I had lost and move on with a solution that is workable, but not optimal. 2) to continue arguing for an option that had been rejected, and attempt to kybosh it at every turn.
The second of these will lead to further delays on something that is IMO an absolutely critical piece of infrastructure. Worse, if the NIMBY protestors against LH3 succeed, you can guarantee that the campaigners against any other option - BI, Gatwick, Stansted etc - will be thoroughly enlivened, and we'll go through this decade-long mess again, and still not end up with a solution.
Enough is enough. Perfect is the enemy of good.
Let's call the diggers in.
An admirable approach - wish people would react to referendums in the same manner.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
He seems to have done himself more damage by not resigning than he would have done had he resigned.
His bank balance is £70k a year better off if he doesn’t resign!
Not sure about that, people pay to listen (F* knows why) to any old and absolubte guff spouted from anyone with the vaguest connection to Gov't and he could probably do more of that from the back benches.
Indeed. I am sure someone on here made a convincing case a few months back that he'd have to resign soon to maintain his expensive lifestyle. He could earn a lot more by not being in the cabinet.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
Corbyn would easily beat Gove on current polls and Gove knows that which is why he will likely back Boris who polls better
£50 at evens that Gove doesn't endorse/back Boris in the next Tory leadership contest.
Both routes contain Spain and Brazil. If we can beat both of those teams then France and Senegal will hold no terrors for us. Go for confidence, momentum and a win.
Dangerous precedent being set by the Gov't in not sacking Boris here.
Let's face it: the government is in free fall and Theresa's authority is shot. The likes of Boris are just waiting for a cliff-drop Brexit so they can blame the Remainers and the EU for the ensuing economic collapse. It's all about personal ambition now. The UK is just a tool for the Leavers' personal advancement. It's sadly astonishing that people can hold their own country in that much contempt.
Surely Tory MPs will have more self respect than to back Boris' future leadership ambitions ! It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
He seems to have done himself more damage by not resigning than he would have done had he resigned.
His bank balance is £70k a year better off if he doesn’t resign!
Not sure about that, people pay to listen (F* knows why) to any old and absolubte guff spouted from anyone with the vaguest connection to Gov't and he could probably do more of that from the back benches.
Indeed. I expect that his earnings as a backbencher would be several times those he'd get as a minister, from writing, speaking, TV and so on.
Meh - these attacks on Boris for his long and correctly held view that LHR is a toilet that should be abandoned are simply a proxy for Brexit.
Dry your eyes Remainers - isn't the bigger picture is that the Chinese would have built the Thames Estuary airport but our crap govt of Grayling, May and Hammond go for the poundland option ?
The problem with that is that the battle has been lost. I argued for Boris Island or a variant of it, and was disappointed when the option did not go through to the second round.
Then I was faced with a choice: 1) accept I had lost and move on with a solution that is workable, but not optimal. 2) to continue arguing for an option that had been rejected, and attempt to kybosh it at every turn.
The second of these will lead to further delays on something that is IMO an absolutely critical piece of infrastructure. Worse, if the NIMBY protestors against LH3 succeed, you can guarantee that the campaigners against any other option - BI, Gatwick, Stansted etc - will be thoroughly enlivened, and we'll go through this decade-long mess again, and still not end up with a solution.
Enough is enough. Perfect is the enemy of good.
Let's call the diggers in.
An admirable approach - wish people would react to referendums in the same manner.
To be fair, an important clause in the first option is "... solution that is workable". If I didn't think LH3 would work, I'd be against it.
I don't see Senegal as most likely to finish top in Group H. I'd question whether they're even second favourites for that. Given that, I'm sceptical about the rest of the graphic too.
I looked at this the other day, as you say certainly far from certain re Senegal, as Columbia are in that group and if they can win will qualify, but the rest is IMO a fairly likely run out.
Both routes contain Spain and Brazil. If we can beat both of those teams then France and Senegal will hold no terrors for us. Go for confidence, momentum and a win.
I think the chancellor / pubs / clubs / supermarkets / etc etc etc would prefer to hold off on beating Brazil, you know just in case England have an off day and lose.
Look at Dem nominee's for open House seats, women are way over preforming men and ideology is playing very little part in it apart from the far left candidates getting mostly badly beaten.
A lot of these seats will be solidly Republican, so the female over-performance in open House seats may just be a question of who is narked off enough about Trump to volunteer for a kamikaze mission.
In all seriousness, I don't think any team so far in the World Cup looks phenomenal. Brazil clicked for 10 mins and looked a class above everybody else, but their defence (like Germany) is shocking.
That doesn't mean I think England have a chance, but I don't think it is a done deal that the likes of Spain or France can't win.
In all seriousness, I don't think any team so far in the World Cup looks phenomenal. Brazil clicked for 10 mins and looked a class above everybody else, but their defence (like Germany) is shocking.
That doesn't mean I think England have a chance, but I don't think it is a done deal that the likes of Spain or France can't win.
Do Germany have anyone else that can play in Jerome Boateng's role ?
He was terrible, and Germany played better without him.
In all seriousness, I don't think any team so far in the World Cup looks phenomenal. Brazil clicked for 10 mins and looked a class above everybody else, but their defence (like Germany) is shocking.
That doesn't mean I think England have a chance, but I don't think it is a done deal that the likes of Spain or France can't win.
Do Germany have anyone else that can play in Jerome Boateng's role ?
He was terrible, and Germany played better without him.
Well they dropped Hummels, because he turns about as quickly as an oil tanker. I guess he comes in for Boateng.
I don't think there's any team there that we need be scared of.
The only thing we have to fear ... is fear itself.
I don't think any of those are easy matches, but prefer the top stream. 538's predictor is updated and hS Brazil in pole position with Spain close behind. It is an open contest but I think Spain looks most likely, though wouldn't rule out Portugal.
Comments
OK, Hounslow might be upset at becoming a ghetto, but they're only Londoners after all.
Still, nice to see Brexiteers determined to reach out and try to heal the divisions they created.
Oh, wait...
It is pointless Democrats building huge leads in coastal states they win easily if they narrowly lose swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan and hence lose the Electoral College
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
"When Mr Williamson said he needed his own £20 billion – a minimum of £2 billion a year extra for the next decade – to avoid damaging defence cuts, Mrs May questioned whether the UK had to be a ‘tier one’ military power...."
So around 4 or 5% ?
Interesting that it is a pair of adulterers acting shamefully over Heathrow.
I bet on Leave, not because I expected Leave to win, but because the odds against Leave were so absurd.
In any event, missiles like the Chinese DF-21D, Russian Kh-47M2 and even the Indian BrahMos are rendering carriers obsolete. The US can afford them - and perhaps develop the systems to protect them - but for us, it's a vanity project.
Rather than dreaming about projecting force in former colonial outposts, the object of defence spending ought to be to make it more trouble than it's worth to fuck with us.
France’s defence minister, Florence Parly, told the newspaper Le Figaro on Sunday: “Defence Europe requires a common strategic culture … The deadlines and decisions in the EU are still much too long compared to the urgency that can arise from a critical situation in a country where Europeans would consider that there is a strong stake for their security.”
The European Intervention Initiative is outside the EU’s structures, so will allow for full UK involvement after Brexit.
Parly said: “This is clearly an initiative that allows some non-EU states to associate. The UK has been very good because it wants to maintain cooperation with Europe beyond bilateral ties.”
The UK has traditionally been wary of efforts to build a European defence cooperation that could challenge Nato structures, but has become a champion of such initiatives since the vote to leave the EU...
- but at root it is about common interests and common sense.
Which is how we (and the EU) ought to be approaching the Brexit negotiations.
I'm pretty sure Farage did believe that Remain had narrowly won.
Could they be implying that Farage may have been ramping for his City trading friends?
It'll be interesting to see who supports him when the contest comes round, far more diginity in death supporting Gove if you want a true beLeaver I think.
If the SNP vote against then it could be very close and be up to the DUP.
He is now thinking about which one to send to the Telegraph subs.
I don't believe that polling companies release false information, so that their clients can make a killing. They make most of their money through market research, and so they need their eve of poll figures to be as accurate as possible.
Not sure this is the headline Trump wanted
Obviously those that got it wrong don't make a story as getting it wrong simply meant your sterling got devalued overnight along with the rest of the country's.
Dry your eyes Remainers - isn't the bigger picture is that the Chinese would have built the Thames Estuary airport but our crap govt of Grayling, May and Hammond go for the poundland option ?
Much better to buy a Triumph though
Redneck Evengelicals in the South and Midwest were quite happy to vote for the millionaire New York Yankee huckster, with a history of serial adultery and not going to church.
Policies and campaign do actually matter a bit, even in culture war ridden USA.
And China wants Taiwan back.
What use is a carrier group or two to the UK, on its own ?
Boris is on -34%
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Michael_Gove
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article178147668/Forsa-Umfrage-Bayern-lehnen-mehrheitlich-Soeders-Politik-ab-Nur-40-Prozent-fuer-CSU.html
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2020
"Boulton jumped straight in with a huge exclusive, declaring he had breaking news. Nigel Farage, the global face of the Brexit campaign, had given Sky what sounded like a concession.
The news pushed the U.K.’s currency up—herding investors toward a cliff hours ahead of one of the largest crashes for any major currency since the birth of the modern global financial system. Trillions of dollars in asset values would be wiped off the books, but not just yet.
Some hedge funds gained confidence, through private exit polls, that most Britons had voted to leave the EU, or that the vote was far closer than the public believed—knowledge pollsters provided while voting was still underway and hours ahead of official tallies. These hedge funds were in the perfect position to earn fortunes by short selling the British pound.
The organizations grew so close that Survation once based its phone operators in UKIP headquarters, according to a knowledgeable source, and Lyons-Lowe became a friend and key adviser to Farage.
The published accounts differ, but both say that Farage had learned the results of an unidentified, financial-services exit poll well before the polls closed at 10 p.m. These accounts also say that Farage learned the results before giving his concession statement to Sky at roughly 9:40 p.m., which the network then aired within seconds of the polls closing at 10 p.m."
Then I was faced with a choice:
1) accept I had lost and move on with a solution that is workable, but not optimal.
2) to continue arguing for an option that had been rejected, and attempt to kybosh it at every turn.
The second of these will lead to further delays on something that is IMO an absolutely critical piece of infrastructure. Worse, if the NIMBY protestors against LH3 succeed, you can guarantee that the campaigners against any other option - BI, Gatwick, Stansted etc - will be thoroughly enlivened, and we'll go through this decade-long mess again, and still not end up with a solution.
Enough is enough. Perfect is the enemy of good.
Let's call the diggers in.
It is a bit too early for anything more than token bets. Sanders and Biden are too old, and are yesterdays men. They will not run, and if they do they will not win. Their endorsement may be important too.
After you, no after you,
On Thursday night the Belgium goal will be defended by England players desperately trying to stop Belgium players trying to score own goals.
If we meet runners up Senegal I know it is possible that Sadio Mane can absolutely destroy England.
The only thing we have to fear ... is fear itself.
That doesn't mean I think England have a chance, but I don't think it is a done deal that the likes of Spain or France can't win.
He was terrible, and Germany played better without him.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/