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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Trump meets Kim and Brexit edg
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Trump meets Kim and Brexit edges closer
On this week’s Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss Trump’s historic meeting with Kim Jong Un in Singapore. Keiran and Leo debate the significance of the meeting and what happens now whilst Keiran takes us through the latest polling on Trump in America that shows what his re-election campaign might look like, why he remains in a tough spot and why these negotiations with North Korea could make or break him.
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Now walking out.
"Laura Smith MP
Verified account @LauraSmithMP
It isn't acceptable to label the majority of my constituents as racist or to suggest they didn't know what they were voting http://for.It is not the place of politicians to tell the people they were wrong.
7:58 PM - 13 Jun 2018 "
twitter.com/LauraSmithMP/status/1006974022343647232
http://www.crazydaysandnights.net/2018/06/blind-item-9_11.html
https://twitter.com/aphclarkson/status/1006770999629615108?s=21
Galileo on the other hand is built and operated by a group of peers who are in the same political and economic structure; the EU.
"I have learned to self-medicate differently, with a mix of fine wine, hard exercise, country walks, intriguing travel and mildly kinky sex. Plus lots of interaction with my kids and friends and wife, and yet, also, isolation when I need to be quiet and to calm the demons."
Well, you're listing the healthy things the rest of us should be lucky enough (sometimes) to experience. Keep on keeping on.
The Galileo issue is a good example of the latter. The fact that member states took a vote on the issue, which was not,unanimous, and was swayed by the Commission recommendation, is pretty clear evidence that an alternative outcome was equally possible, whatever Barnier’s claims about ‘principle’.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/13/eu-member-states-block-uks-access-to-galileo-satellite-programme-after-brexit
‘Capitulation’ pretty well described the EU’s desired outcome, though.
The chances obviously aren't "0%", or the conversation wouldn't be taking place. Australia is looking to grow and develop its military and security forces and the UK is a natural partner.
Whatever their desired outcome, the reality is different. They took a vote. We lost. Get over it...
"Wish harder" is not a sensible negotiating position for the HMG, but is the Brexiteer solution to every problem.
We talk about the EU as if it were the Borg. In reality, the EU is gravely weakened by the UK’s exit and will become smaller, and more defensive, nervous and inwardly focussed, as a result.
Welcome to PB, Mr. Pit.
Mr. Eagles, your World Cup tips coming up this afternoon?
Dr. Foxy, Hitler was a vegetarian*. Guilt by association is dumb (and if Remain had spent more time on the EU and less on pointing at Farage and making rude noises, they probably would've won).
*Vegetarian was defined a bit more loosely back then, including eating things like kidney. That might sound daft, but in 50 years or so people might feel the same about vegetarians eating fish.
Next year, it will likely drop below Spain and South Korea.
Forget the G7, it might not even make it into the top 20 in five years time.
Lets spend it on satellites instead !
Coming to a bus near you...
https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/interview/academic-weakened-europe-has-once-again-become-a-playground-for-influence-games/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-44471277
Sanctions won't be helping, of course, but then, using chemical weapons and having a role in the downing of a passenger plane aren't exactly the behavioural norms of the civilised world.
Do we really need such a system? after all we do not have it at present. It seems unnessecary duplication to me.
The most interesting point is that anyone who thinks that the June Summit is going to be about resolving blockages in Brexit is almost certainly wrong. The EU has a massive agenda of its own to deal with, specifically how to respond to the new Italian government and the challenges it makes to the current EZ arrangements. Merkel's attention is likely to be elsewhere. Whether this proves a good or a bad thing for us is hard to predict.
I note the FT wrote a good article on this several weeks ago. Like I said last night, the UK is exploring options via its five eyes alliance, and has been doing ‘no deal’ planning for some time:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/bb6bae54-5c3f-11e8-ad91-e01af256df68
The cost of one new aircraft carrier, or about 50 x F35s. It would also support 5,000+ UK jobs over a number of years for a new independent system.
The UK wanted to collaborate on this.
They're cherrypicking, all day long, pausing only to try and appropriate Northern Ireland and impose a customs barrier within a nation-state.
We have two and a half choices: 1. buy our way back into Galileo eating as much shit as necessary on the way. 2. Tag along with the US on ASPN. Get what we're given and probably be surveilled in the process. This recreates the GPS dependency but in a worse way. 2.5 Build our own system with one or more partners. Which requires a lot of money and wishful thinking to turn into a viable proposition.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/13/strawberry-glut-means-supermarkets-selling-cheap-super-size/
For those Remainers who don’t understand, ESA is not the EU. ESA contains members not in the EU (such as Switzerland & Norway), and there are EU members not in ESA (such as Bulgaria & Romania). This is just the same as all the European science projects (e.g., CERN or ESO, they are nothing to do with the EU, they predate the EU and their membership is not coincident with the EU).
According to wiki, other members of Galileo include Morocco, Israel and the Ukraine. Last time I looked, they were not in the EU or in ESA. (Obviously, the other non-EU but ESA countries such as Norway and Switzerland are in Galileo). Again, according to wiki, China was in Galileo, but withdrew because it didn’t think the Europeans could fund it and carry it our successfully.
Given such a disparate membership, there is no reason for us to be excluded from Galileo. If we have contributed skills, expertise and money to the Galileo project, and are now being excluded, then that is theft.
Ultimately, in all science projects like this, if politicians meddle and interfere in the science (for example, by deciding that the best technical group has to be excluded on political grounds), then that makes the project more expensive, dispirits the scientists working on it, and makes it more likely the project will fail (or get seriously delayed).
It seems to me that the EU is clearly in the wrong on this -- but it is no surprise that the familiar bleating voices are tellings us: “Punishment beatings -- this is what we must expect”.
We should frack on.
Mr. Cwsc, quite.
The UK has been clear it wants to collaborate closely on foreign and security policy with the EU. The EU is telling it (on Galileo at least) to jog on.
There are some who always blame the EU. There are others who never do. But, by doing this, the EU makes divergence a necessity and makes it much less likely a future UK government will ever see its in our national interest again to rejoin.
Things will have moved on.
LRIP 12 F-35s fly away for $80 - 85m so fifty of them would also be about 3bn.
Galileo is going to cost 8bn quid. Maybe the UK can build a system for less if David Davis is in charge of the program.
The odd way that some journalists have allowed their Trump Derangement Syndrome (similar sounding Bush Derangement Syndrome, Sarah Palin Derangement Syndrome and Brexit denial Syndromes are commonly present in patients that present with symptoms, but past infections do not build up any kind of immunity, but increase susceptibility) to 'trump' this as somehow bad news, is just weird. Because Kim Jon Ung is a 'bad man', then trying to reach agreement with a bad man (to be less bad) is in itself a 'bad thing'.
Trump has done more to earn a Nobel Peace Prize than his predecessor.
The EU keeps treating us as a “third country” - we should start acting as one.
I'd gain both ways, having solar panels and being paid a premium rate for producing energy even if I use it all myself. I know this is barmy. But a fool (thanks, Ed) and his money ...
Either way, my point was it isn’t unaffordable. The UK Government commits to big strategic projects of that scale, and more, all the time. HS2 and Crossrail are orders of magnitude more expensive.
When politicians meddle in science & technology projects, the result is usually an expensive disaster.
https://twitter.com/tobyperkinsmp/status/1007164064483692544
Chortle.....
Hell, we even had a thread a few weeks back that eulogized Lord Rennard.....
Not the EEA just EFTA. Is it because it starts with E?
My favourite bit of legislation is the Welsh Labour Government’s “The Well-Being of Future Generations Act” (2015).
It commits Welsh politicians to act for the future well-being of Wales.
There was plenty of discussion from the politicians about the wording of the act, and how the future well-being of Wales was being secured by lots of politicians talking about it and drafting legislation that mean it will happen.
There is a possibility, and one which is more close at hand than remote, that the EU posses and uses a supersize super resilient bubble, one so large and strong that it may even be able to repel a weaponised enormo haddock.
Connection to the common people is a thing of the past. Despite (or because of?) improved communication networks over recent years.
I think for the kind of money being asked, it is definitely worth going for it and putting in the most advanced imaging tech vs the outdated stuff going into Galileo.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ehaRquyAYHo
A week ago Boris and J R-M's stars were on the wane and Tory Remainers were starting to assert themselves. Brexit was going so badly that the built in Remain majority in Parliament looked like they might mobilize in the national interest. If May was forced out she wouldn't be replaced by one of the headbangers but by Javid. So the fear of the lunatics taking over the asylum was severely reduced.
Compromises could be made. The wild ones-Boris Fox and the Bulldog-could be fired and the sensible majority could reassert itself. A period of quiet reflection would very likely lead to BINO or even a moratorium while we reflected on where we were going leading to another referendum in a few years time
But then yesterday it became obvious that Corbyn the treacherous bastard is a Leaver. With the leader of the biggest parliamentary block of Remainers at war with his own troops we're back to square one.
They are so bloody fair-minded they keep allowing their electioneering site to be filled with Tory propaganda!
Still leaves us £17.4bn for the NHS
One of the heavily ironic things about hearing the likes of Ken Clarke, Soubry and Grieve wax lyrical about the benefits of openness, immigration and the need to bring down barriers is that they all Barristers, a profession which is the absolute master of erecting numerous arcane barriers to keep out competition and fighting tooth and claw retain their lock on the market.