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‘That was a dress rehearsal. Next time Theresa is toast’
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But to summarise: if the Tory Brexiteers force May out, they're handing the keys of no.10 to Corbyn and his followers.
FPT
England to chase 372 to win.
That was a mighty impressive innings from Calum Macleod. However, England do have considerable firepower right down to no. 10 and I think they will feel this is gettable.
Am I the only person who thinks a bowler averaging 41 after 12 tests and 47 after 28 ODIs already in his late twenties with a long injury history isn't really an international standard bowler, rather someone who should be discarded?
(Oh and NZ women might still squeak 400 at Malahide.)
I also support democracy.
Why do you find that so difficult to understand?
Wtf is going on with bloody Vanilla?!!!
It's in the Sunday Times and from Tim Shipman.
Are we really going to take it that seriously?
I think they would be wary of ousting her unless they have a clear, plausible, better and more Brexitty alternative in place, and they haven't got anyone who matches even one of those criteria right now
If only 42 are backing a vote of confidence, that suggests they don't have the numbers to get her out.
Because that's the real equivalent, and your suggestion I'm afraid doesn't match it.
https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1005049406083788800?s=21
I suspect it might be like 1990 all over again.
May wins a majority of MPs but is fatally damaged in the process.
Pause.
I know that's not relevant to anything, I just wanted to point it out...
He's produced the two best books on politics in recent years.
What does that make their opponents other than “more of the above”?
Seems to be a day for massive scores (we won't mention the Kent score). Will that make Scotland's bowlers nervous?
They almost certainly have the numbers to trigger a vote of no confidence. Do they have the numbers to win it? And if they win it, who comes next? I suspect the answers to these two important questions are No and TBD. So Theresa May has good chances of limping on for quite a while yet.
I was being humorous.
Ho. Ho. Ho.
Her authority may be ethereal but it's not exactly made of titanium now, is it?
Heck the whole Tory disclipline falls apart and the Commons votes to keep us in The Customs Union.
That applies even though Corbyn is utterly unfit to be Minister Without Portfolio, never mind PM. Most votes and most seats and he should be allowed to form a government.
Giggity.
Never mind for the moment who sorted Cummings out with the Russian gig after he graduated. A key to his status lies in his full name:
Dominic Mckenzie Cummings
is an anagram of
iz nice nice Dugin sock mmmm
which must surely refer to this guy: Aleksandr Dugin.
Odysseanism as a sockpuppet for Fourth Wayism?
Incidentally I was very surprised on flicking through some population figures to find York weighs in at over 200,000 people. I had no idea it was that large, although admittedly I don't know it very well. I always thought it was roughly comparable to Worcester but it's more than twice the size. Are there big areas the tourists don't see or are there just a lot of people living very tightly packed together?
Those of us who actually believe in democracy would reserve the right to criticise him (as and when he did things we disagreed with him) and to campaign to defeat him at the next election. But we would not deny his absolute right to be PM and take the actions he saw fit as long as they were in accordance with the constitution and the law.
Democracy is a process not a result.
I did note that where there is a single defining issue and two smaller parties with a majority between them campaigned ont he same side over that issue there is no issue with them forming a legitimate government, but that was of course not the case in 2010 where in several crucial areas, notably tax, the Liberal Democrats were actually quite a lot closer to the Conservatives than Labour.
So I'm not quite sure why you're disagreeing with me (unless it's because you enjoy our arguments)!
Both he and Arron Banks have clearly got it coming to them and they have been saying so for some time by their behaviour. The same is true of Donald Trump even if for the moment the two British traitors are further along the path than he is.
I don't know what the constitutional position is and I am not sure which would be the better way as I can see arguments on both sides.
Yeh, yeh, yeh. More anonymous quotes from ERG wingnuts. Pretty sure we can ignore them and carry on arguing about Brexit.
England meanwhile galloping along at 51 without loss after 6 overs. Coetzer now turning to spin.
Wouldn't it be perfect if Scotland could find a spinner called Alistair Campbell? Would definitely be a mystery spinner of course, very deceptive in bowling
weapons of mass destructiongooglies!Going back further to the December 1910 Parliament, the Liberals and Conservatives effectively had the same number of seats. By 1912 by election reverses had made the Tories the largest party, but it was hardly realistic to expect the Labour Party and Irish Nationalist MPs to switch their support from Asquith to Balfour or Bonar Law!
The aim is to find a government that commands the confidence of Parliament. In a hung Parliament that may not necessarily be led by the party with most votes or most seats. It may also require a change of leader within a party if a particular leader is especially controversial, as I have previously noted.
In the case of the Liberals, since the Irish Nationalists had supported them in pretty much every vote anyway the dynamic was rather different - moreover both times they were (just) the largest party.
The really strange one of course was Macdonald, who led a party of 13 MPs after 1931. But then Lloyd George was in a similar situation, and both times it was irrelevant because they had campaigned on a joint platform with the election winners.
Simple as that. Are they really too stupid to understand the reality of their position?
I said England would fancy their chances, I didn't expect a start like this. For Scotland to win I think from here they need to bowl them out. 280 off 40 is a target to knock off for fun in the T20 age.
Edit - Bairstow now 75 off 34! Blink and you miss it!!!
Or are you going to tell me that it doesn't matter who wins an election, the Sovereign chooses the PM and the Commons supports them?
I am sure he accepts your acquiescence .
I'm fairly sure he wouldn't accept my non-acquiescence
Incidentally I was very surprised on flicking through some population figures to find York weighs in at over 200,000 people. I had no idea it was that large, although admittedly I don't know it very well. I always thought it was roughly comparable to Worcester but it's more than twice the size. Are there big areas the tourists don't see or are there just a lot of people living very tightly packed together?
Yes you are correct , outside the city centre , where the tourists go.There are very large suburbs, which used to be villages years ago.For example Heslington , then in the sixties the University of York was built and now it is part of the larger York area.
I live a couple of miles from York Minster , but just outside the boundary of the York Central Parliamentary seat.So just in York Outer.However all the major suburbs around the walled city are in the City of York Council area.
But everyone goes on holiday on 24 July!
Doesn't seem a likely time does it?
Does anyone even stop for a minute to think their predictions through?
That makes sense.
Who do they want to become PM instead? There doesn't seem to be anyone head & shoulders above the rest and, even if there were, why should he or she want to pick up such a poisoned chalice?
Seems to me like a death wish, a desire to see what sort of a job Mr Corbyn can make of it all.
Good afternoon, everyone.
@NickPalmer: Many thanks for a very interesting article on the previous thread. I'd only just finished reading the header when this new thread appeared.
Aberdeenshire
Angus
Fife
Staffordshire
Leicestershire
Cambridgeshire
Herefordshire
Essex
Kent
Surrey
Somerset
That's gains of Fife, Essex and Surrey and a loss in Berkshire.
Given we are Brexiting very shortly, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to be directing all energy at getting as good a Brexit deal as possible. That is what the Tory party should be focussing on, as in fact that is what they will be judged on.
(I am not a Tory, so the Tory party can of course do what they wish. I think the main objection is that the optics look bad from the outside).
Presumably followed 9 months later by suicide in the bunker, and a change of government enforced by Stalinists?
And 2019 is next year.
I just wanted to point it out...
Surely that is the reason for an insurrection, not to stop one. The problem being that even the Cabinet Brexit committee cannot agree what constitutes a "good deal"
It is the Great Au Pair Famine.
What use are strawberries in abundance, if there is no free labour from Gudrun to prepare them & serve them to your children.
Although I don't know it very well, from what I have seen you live in one of the most beautiful cities in Europe, and I've seen quite a number.
How does replacing May make a Corbyn premiership more likely? It is nonsense to argue that it does.
The country is split pretty much 50:50.
With those numbers, we can’t stay in the EU and make it work for us. And we can’t leave and make it work for us.
May has a shitty hand, but the cards in the hand remain the same whoever is holding them, and whether they want to take us out or keep us in.
2) It can take 2-3 three months to choose her replacement
3) For 2-3 months the Brexit negotiations are on hold/in flux as the Tories select their new leader, where it is possible the EU or us say we're putting negotiations on hold as it might be a waste because the new PM has their own approach
4) Less time increases the chances of a no deal Brexit which will bad for the UK and the economy.
5) A no deal Brexit will do for the Tories what Black Wednesday did for the Tories in 1992
6) Corbyn becomes PM
That's one scenario
The other scenario is that the Tories tear themselves apart in the leadership election that they simply become ungovernable. Her Majesty invites Corbyn to be PM.
There are a few other scenarios to Corbyn becoming PM.