Wonder if Red Ed's disasterous policy and marginal constituency vote loser will have any effect on the Yougov for tomorrow. We will know if it is a negative effect by abour 20:30 tonight if @Tomnewtondunn tweets "interesting poll". No tweeting from Tom can only mean one thing.
Well the Labour lead did tumble 30% the day of Ed's speech, RedRag.
A very nasty fall.
I doubt he would he survive a second.
Not long to find out. Though looking at all the negative posts on here, surely your prediction of an imminent crossover of a lead in the polls from Labour to Conservative the other day will be true, eh.
Tom has more important things on his mind EdRag:
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 4h Former Labour trade minister (Digby) Lord Jones describes @Ed_Miliband's enforced energy price freeze as "very worrying"
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 4h What does EDF think of @Ed_Miliband's energy bills freeze? We need to hear from External Comms Dir Andrew Brown - Gordon's brother.
Murdoch's press, like the rest of the Greater Tory Party, running round like headless chickens.
This is great political viewing. As Nick Robinson said on the noos earlier, it's highly unusual for an opposition to make such an impact.
Indeed. Even the usually sensible Richard N isn't immune, frantically retweeting "evidence" from every vested interest under the sun. I agree with your analysis below, by the way, about Ed's speech. I didn't much care for the presentation either. Imagine my surprise when I got home to find the media giving it raves.
As Nick Robinson said on the noos earlier, it's highly unusual for an opposition to make such an impact.
That's spot-on. I can't think of any example in the last 50 years, except perhaps Healey back in the 1970s, where an opposition has had such a disastrous impact on the economy and on the prospects for the UK recovery.
Wonder if Red Ed's disasterous policy and marginal constituency vote loser will have any effect on the Yougov for tomorrow. We will know if it is a negative effect by abour 20:30 tonight if @Tomnewtondunn tweets "interesting poll". No tweeting from Tom can only mean one thing.
Well the Labour lead did tumble 30% the day of Ed's speech, RedRag.
A very nasty fall.
I doubt he would he survive a second.
Not long to find out. Though looking at all the negative posts on here, surely your prediction of an imminent crossover of a lead in the polls from Labour to Conservative the other day will be true, eh.
Tom has more important things on his mind EdRag:
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 4h Former Labour trade minister (Digby) Lord Jones describes @Ed_Miliband's enforced energy price freeze as "very worrying"
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 4h What does EDF think of @Ed_Miliband's energy bills freeze? We need to hear from External Comms Dir Andrew Brown - Gordon's brother.
Murdoch's press, like the rest of the Greater Tory Party, running round like headless chickens.
This is great political viewing. As Nick Robinson said on the noos earlier, it's highly unusual for an opposition to make such an impact.
Dunn is a comedian. Indeed, it's not the normal chip-paper of usual Loto speeches.
Indeed. Even the usually sensible Richard N isn't immune, frantically retweeting "evidence" from every vested interest under the sun.
Fitch Ratings have a vested interest in this??
I can't quite decide whether Labour supporters understand the obvious truth that this is utterly bonkers but hope it will be populist, or if they really believe it's a good idea. I hope it's not the latter.
Indeed. Even the usually sensible Richard N isn't immune, frantically retweeting "evidence" from every vested interest under the sun. I agree with your analysis below, by the way, about Ed's speech. I didn't much care for the presentation either. Imagine my surprise when I got home to find the media giving it raves.
He's not been retweeting anything, he's very quiet on Twitter actually - I'm his 4th follower !
Cards on the table - who REALLY thinks Labour won't get a conference bounce.
I'm saying they will get a modest bounce, then the Tory conference will knock things back to where they were before conference season.
If the energy freeze is so bad and will be so unpopular, put yourself out there and say so, otherwise we'll know it's just partisan nonsense.
I don't know. A conference bounce - even quite a big conference bounce - for Labour wouldn't surprise me, not least because simply being present in people's minds tends to have that effect.
But one smallish but significant group have not been given enough attention. The Blairites were upset about Syria. Some of them are seething about the left turn. John Rentoul is only the most visible of these.
Ed Miliband will have reinforced the enthusiasm of his core, but the fringe may be getting fringier.
Indeed. Even the usually sensible Richard N isn't immune, frantically retweeting "evidence" from every vested interest under the sun.
Fitch Ratings have a vested interest in this??
I can't quite decide whether Labour supporters understand the obvious truth that this is utterly bonkers but hope it will be populist, or if they really believe it's a good idea. I hope it's not the latter.
As Nick Robinson said on the noos earlier, it's highly unusual for an opposition to make such an impact.
That's spot-on. I can't think of any example in the last 50 years, except perhaps Healey back in the 1970s, where an opposition has had such a disastrous impact on the economy and on the prospects for the UK recovery.
hyperventilation and hyperbole. Has Fitalass given you some of what she's been smoking for the last five years?
Ed Miliband was being interviewed on the Today programme about his speech at the Labour party conference. Half way through there was an awkward moment. I’ll transcribe it in full.
Justin Webb: “You only had one line on the deficit.”
Ed Miliband: “…”
Instead of commenting, Mr Miliband left four long, faintly menacing seconds of dead air, before his interviewer anxiously stepped back in.
Still, just goes to show how quickly politics can change. In less than 24 hours the Labour leader had gone from one line on the deficit to none.
As Nick Robinson said on the noos earlier, it's highly unusual for an opposition to make such an impact.
That's spot-on. I can't think of any example in the last 50 years, except perhaps Healey back in the 1970s, where an opposition has had such a disastrous impact on the economy and on the prospects for the UK recovery.
Calm down, Chicken Licken.
Conference next week, I know you're rattled but you Tories need to regain some composure and work out how to respond to this.
As Nick Robinson said on the noos earlier, it's highly unusual for an opposition to make such an impact.
That's spot-on. I can't think of any example in the last 50 years, except perhaps Healey back in the 1970s, where an opposition has had such a disastrous impact on the economy and on the prospects for the UK recovery.
I am getting seriously worried . I actually think you believe all the drivel you have been posting in the last 24 hours . you are completely over blowing your response to a reasonable speech by a LOTO and a policy announcement which will be dwarfed in importance by many others in the next 18 months .
As Nick Robinson said on the noos earlier, it's highly unusual for an opposition to make such an impact.
That's spot-on. I can't think of any example in the last 50 years, except perhaps Healey back in the 1970s, where an opposition has had such a disastrous impact on the economy and on the prospects for the UK recovery.
I am getting seriously worried . I actually think you believe all the drivel you have been posting in the last 24 hours . you are completely over blowing your response to a reasonable speech by a LOTO and a policy announcement which will be dwarfed in importance by many others in the next 18 months .
Indeed. The most interesting - and important - announcement for me was the promise to lower the voting age to 16. I didn't even know that was on Labour's radar.
Who do you think he is saying has been calling them it when he says "We've not got the language right at Conservative HQ and the Treasury......there is a danger we may make them feel like parasites, and that we look like the nasty party"...Labour? Yes he has not said it, but he is obviously saying people in Tory HQ and the Treasury are.
They didn't get the language right because they allowed Labour to misrepresent their language.
But let's forget about words and look at actions. This coalition government is really trying to help out that particular demographic, to the tunes of over half a billion pounds:
That's real action and real money on the problem. All done by a coalition Conservative / Lib Dem government. Not a Labour government (although some Labour councils debuted it).
You must be so ashamed.
Josias - He doesn't say they were misrepresented or Labour have lied about what they have said, he said ""We've not got the language right at Conservative HQ and the Treasury......there is a danger we may make them feel like parasites, and that we look like the nasty party"...We've (as in the Conservative Party) not got the language right at Conservative HQ or the Treasury (members of the Conservative Party) and this may make them feel like parasites. I assume the minister will have his finger on the pulse of the language being used at Conservative HQ and the Treasury.
"The most frightening thing is that I have a horrible feeling that Ed really does think that power stations grow spontaneously out of the ground."
Considering EdM's lack of interest in the demolishing of the old Thorpe Marsh coal power station in his constituency and its proposed replacement with a new gas power station you may be right.
I have speculated before that middle class metropolitans associate the phrase 'power station' not with a heavy industrial site which produces electricity but with either a modern art gallery (Bankside) or a property development opportunity (Battersea).
I think what is scaring Richard et al isn;t ed's announcement, but that people might vote for it, which says more about his opinion of the British people and the tories ability to win the argument on this than it does about Ed's proposal itself.
I am getting seriously worried . I actually think you believe all the drivel you have been posting in the last 24 hours . you are completely over blowing your response to a reasonable speech by a LOTO and a policy announcement which will be dwarfed in importance by many others in the next 18 months .
I'm certainly not over-reacting. We are talking about long-term investment commitments of between £100bn and £200bn. A pre-requisite for anyone to put that amount of dosh into an investment is regulatory certainty, which we had in the UK until yesterday, but no longer have today. I have provided a series of quotes from serious, non-partisan figures, none of whom have any vested interest in the subject, to back up my points. The share price of SSE has fallen by nearly 6% today when the market as a whole has been flat.
Maybe you and also Labour supporters think this is a jolly wheeze which will get votes for Labour and that's the end of it. Well, it may get votes for Labour (it will almost certainly lead to a short-term polling boost), but it's not a free lunch: this sort of thing has real repercussions in the real world. The problem of investment in energy infrastructure was already dire; it's just got even worse.
Tim Wigmore in the Telegraph reveals an intersting fact:
"The Left might view Thatcher as an easy scapegoat. But here's the thing: the 221,000 houses built in Thatcher's last year have never been matched since."
Odd how PB's house building enthusiast hasn't mentioned that ;-)
"Both Labour and the Conservatives have consistently shirked house-building. In the context of spending targets on the NHS or education, housing was for too long deemed an unobtrusive way of cutting. You might get voted out because the schools or hospitals weren't good enough, but whoever heard of a government booted out for not building?"
Exactly, which is why EdM is going to spend more money on public sector pay increases and not on building houses.
Have the PB leftists accepted that yet or are they still pretending otherwise ?
As Nick Robinson said on the noos earlier, it's highly unusual for an opposition to make such an impact.
That's spot-on. I can't think of any example in the last 50 years, except perhaps Healey back in the 1970s, where an opposition has had such a disastrous impact on the economy and on the prospects for the UK recovery.
I am getting seriously worried . I actually think you believe all the drivel you have been posting in the last 24 hours . you are completely over blowing your response to a reasonable speech by a LOTO and a policy announcement which will be dwarfed in importance by many others in the next 18 months .
Indeed. The most interesting - and important - announcement for me was the promise to lower the voting age to 16. I didn't even know that was on Labour's radar.
Don't get too excited, R0berts, it is not a mental age.
They didn't get the language right because they allowed Labour to misrepresent their language.
But let's forget about words and look at actions. This coalition government is really trying to help out that particular demographic, to the tunes of over half a billion pounds:
That's real action and real money on the problem. All done by a coalition Conservative / Lib Dem government. Not a Labour government (although some Labour councils debuted it).
You must be so ashamed.
Josias - He doesn't say they were misrepresented or Labour have lied about what they have said, he said ""We've not got the language right at Conservative HQ and the Treasury......there is a danger we may make them feel like parasites, and that we look like the nasty party"...We've (as in the Conservative Party) not got the language right at Conservative HQ or the Treasury (members of the Conservative Party) and this may make them feel like parasites. I assume the minister will have his finger on the pulse of the language being used at Conservative HQ and the Treasury.
Which all matches my interpretation, and not yours.
So we have one Conservative backbench MP who has used it derogatively, and over half a billion pounds given by the coalition to help such 'problem' (*) families.
I think you're on a loser here, mate.
Over half a billion pounds to help the worst off and most problematic families. Not in handouts, but to try and help them find a better way forward. It won;t work with all, but every family helped is great for us all.
And it was not done by Labour central government, but by the Conservative and Liberal Democrats.
It's no wonder you fall back on the 'scroungers' lie. You must be so ashamed.
(*) I don't actually like the word 'problem', but it's hard to think of a decent descriptive alternative.
I am getting seriously worried . I actually think you believe all the drivel you have been posting in the last 24 hours . you are completely over blowing your response to a reasonable speech by a LOTO and a policy announcement which will be dwarfed in importance by many others in the next 18 months .
I'm certainly not over-reacting. We are talking about long-term investment commitments of between £100bn and £200bn. A pre-requisite for anyone to put that amount of dosh into an investment is regulatory certainty, which we had in the UK until yesterday, but no longer have today. I have provided a series of quotes from serious, non-partisan figures, none of whom have any vested interest in the subject, to back up my points. The share price of SSE has fallen by nearly 6% today when the market as a whole has been flat.
Maybe you and also Labour supporters think this is a jolly wheeze which will get votes for Labour and that's the end of it. Well, it may get votes for Labour (it will almost certainly lead to a short-term polling boost), but it's not a free lunch: this sort of thing has real repercussions in the real world. The problem of investment in energy infrastructure was already dire; it's just got even worse.
Richard
A policy announcement by an opposition politician which, on a single day, wipes £2 billion off the value of an industry of strategic importance to the country.
Nothing to worry about.
All in a day's knockabout of JCR and blog politics.
'Power Trip' is a rollicking read. McBride writes brilliantly well. Jeez, the turgid politico memoirs I've waded through. I'm half way through this already.
I just heard the Lib Dem energy spokesman say "Miliband's energy policy is already unraveling....." I doubt Red can believe his luck. This morning I was going to post that the best thing that could now happen would be for the Lib Dems to side with the Tories against the energy give away
Talking of give away.... Whilst having a coffee in cap Ferrat I got a call from my stockbroker asking if I wanted to buy any Royal Mail. I said I didn't believe in the privatization so "no".
He said that was a pity because it was a certain profit and likely to pay a dividend in excess of 6%. I asked why? He replied that the government just can't afford to let it fail so he expects the terms to be a give away and he expects them to be oversubscribed by about 10x.
So I decided to abandon my principles and asked him to get me £10,000 worth. He said there's no point as I'd probably end up with just £1,000 worth.
I said that was good because I didn't really want any anyway and my principles could stay intact.
As Nick Robinson said on the noos earlier, it's highly unusual for an opposition to make such an impact.
That's spot-on. I can't think of any example in the last 50 years, except perhaps Healey back in the 1970s, where an opposition has had such a disastrous impact on the economy and on the prospects for the UK recovery.
I am getting seriously worried . I actually think you believe all the drivel you have been posting in the last 24 hours . you are completely over blowing your response to a reasonable speech by a LOTO and a policy announcement which will be dwarfed in importance by many others in the next 18 months .
Indeed. The most interesting - and important - announcement for me was the promise to lower the voting age to 16. I didn't even know that was on Labour's radar.
Don't get too excited, R0berts, it is not a mental age.
@MilibandTips: Don't worry about energy price caps causing blackouts, use candles instead of electricity. #lab13 twitter.com/MilibandTips/status/382912891092885505/photo/1
I just heard the Lib Dem energy spokesman say "Miliband's energy policy is already unraveling....." I doubt he can believe his luck. This morning I was going to post that the best thing that could now happen would be for the Lib Dems to side with the Tories against the populist energy policy.
OT Whilst having a coffee in cap Ferrat I got a call from my stockbroker asking if I wanted to buy any Royal Mail. I said I didn't believe in the privatization so "no".
He said that was a pity because it was a certain profit and likely to pay a dividend in excess of 6%. I asked why? He replied that the government just can't afford to let it fail so he expects the terms to be a give away and he expects them to be oversubscribed by about 10x.
So I decided to abandon my principles just this once and asked him to get me £10,000 worth. He said there's no point as I'd probably end up with just £1,000 worth.
I said that was good because I didn't really want any anyway and my principles could stay intact.
Well done, Roger.
I have always thought you were more of a doe than a stag.
"Richard Barnes, former London deputy mayor, has given a new meaning to being an Assembly “Member” after accidently uploading pictures of his penis to Facebook for all his followers to see.
Barnes, 66, who is the Conservative member for Hillingdon and Ealing in London uploaded the pictures moments ago in what appears to be a rather drastic error caused by his iPhone’s auto upload settings."
I am getting seriously worried . I actually think you believe all the drivel you have been posting in the last 24 hours . you are completely over blowing your response to a reasonable speech by a LOTO and a policy announcement which will be dwarfed in importance by many others in the next 18 months .
I'm certainly not over-reacting. We are talking about long-term investment commitments of between £100bn and £200bn. A pre-requisite for anyone to put that amount of dosh into an investment is regulatory certainty, which we had in the UK until yesterday, but no longer have today. I have provided a series of quotes from serious, non-partisan figures, none of whom have any vested interest in the subject, to back up my points. The share price of SSE has fallen by nearly 6% today when the market as a whole has been flat.
Maybe you and also Labour supporters think this is a jolly wheeze which will get votes for Labour and that's the end of it. Well, it may get votes for Labour (it will almost certainly lead to a short-term polling boost), but it's not a free lunch: this sort of thing has real repercussions in the real world. The problem of investment in energy infrastructure was already dire; it's just got even worse.
Yup it is almost a test of can you join the dots voter and see beyond the end of your nose. There are no free lunches. Trouble is I suspect lasting damage has already been done ( where shall we invest in a power station .. Hmm.. Germany? Canada ? Poland ? UK ? Hmm not the UK they might be dicking about with prices .. Too risky let's go elsewhere). Would you invest in a British power supplier now or a water company - surely that's on the list too and so on). As I wrote yesterday the real killer was the " land grab " thinking. What is secure under Ed? Anything?
I have expressed doubts on here about certain aspects of GO's policies ( such as boosting the housing market) but geez it pales after yesterday's messages from Brighton.
Restrict prices you will create shortages eventually as producers deem it's not worth their while producing or sell to markets where they can get a better price ( see bog rolls in Venezula 2013, eastern Bloc 1945 - 89, or trying to get a bloody phone installed by the GPO in the 1970's and many others).
Out of interest, given the share price falls today - does insider trading rules apply to political statements? Anyone with prior knowledge of that speech could have had a bit selling short.
"Richard Barnes, former London deputy mayor, has given a new meaning to being an Assembly “Member” after accidently uploading pictures of his penis to Facebook for all his followers to see.
Barnes, 66, who is the Conservative member for Hillingdon and Ealing in London uploaded the pictures moments ago in what appears to be a rather drastic error caused by his iPhone’s auto upload settings."
In short, the flagship policies unveiled by Ed Miliband – on both housing and energy – run as follows. In both cases, the market is dominated by an oligopoly of evil, profiteering mega-firms. Labour, says Ed, will take away their ill-gotten profits, and force them to act for the public good.
And when these firms ask why they should then invest billions in the construction projects or power stations on which Labour's plans for cheap homes and cheap energy depend, given that the party's explicit policy is to confiscate their property and denounce them as parasites? Well, Ed'll get back to you on that. Probably some time after 2015.
He - or at least his wife - appears to be the only Labour politician to have had a positive impact on British industry.
Supporting recent signs of an improving economy, a survey by Superyacht UK has shown that sales of the luxury vessels climbed 3.9 per cent in the 2012/13 financial year, having contracted 2.2 per cent the previous year.
Perhaps Andy could get Marie-France to have a quiet word in Ed's ear?
'But one smallish but significant group have not been given enough attention. The Blairites were upset about Syria. Some of them are seething about the left turn. John Rentoul is only the most visible of these.'
He was certainly not a happy camper last night when he said Labour would be the only anti business party fighting the next election. Digby Jones called it a return to 'ideological tribal socialism'
Sky: Peruvian prosecutors refuse to accept guilty pleas from the two British drug smugglers...
I think that can happen very occasionally with the British courts, for example if the judge believes one defendant is deliberately taking the blame for another person.
Ed has at last shown he is not afraid to take on big business/right wing Tory press. Cons conference and Gideon's Autumn statement will be interesting. Out on the doorstep this weekend. Will be interesting to hear what public have to say. Will post feedback.
Freggles, Bobajob - like antifrank I don't really know, but I suspect VI movements throughout the conference season will be smaller than usual this year - the voting blocks are so solidly entrenched. And as per usual I doubt if the net effect in a few weeks will be visible. Ed's personal ratings should be up, though.
Businesses will view the proposals on tax and energy laid out by Ed Miliband in Brighton today at the Labour Party Conference as a setback for Labour's pro-enterprise credentials.
Rising energy bills are tough on families and businesses. But the proposed energy price freeze will deter much-needed investment and is at odds with Labour's pledge to decarbonise the economy and create a million green jobs.
The main reasons that bills are going up is the combination of rising wholesale prices, the cost of policies needed to keep the lights on and the move to a low-carbon economy.
Meanwhile, the reductions in corporation tax have sent a clear signal that Britain is open for business, boosted investment and spurred job creation.
Mr Miliband’s proposal to reduce business rates has merit, but to do it for some firms, through an increase in corporation tax for others, is divisive.
Success for many smaller firms goes hand-in-hand with that of larger firms through supply chains and it's important to remember that large firms employ ten million people. To be pro-enterprise Labour must speak for all businesses.
On house-building we have fallen woefully behind and the commitment to 200,000 homes a year is a great ambition. To achieve this we need house builders on board, not criticised for holding on to land when it's not viable to build on it.
Employers want to take on more apprentices irrespective of the need to bring in highly-skilled migrants.
Mr Miliband also mentioned a sectoral approach to setting a higher minimum wage, which would be unworkable and hit smallest companies the hardest. Not all companies working in the same sector operate on the same margins.
The best way to raise living standards is through growth. It's only when we start to see solid and sustainable growth that wages will pick up and people will start to feel better off.
It's interesting to note the complete refusal of the Kenyan authorities to engage with the Red Cross's assertion that about 65 people are still missing.
I think that Ed Miliband's Conference speech has done far more to undermine UKIP here and now when it comes to their Conservative leaning supporters. And I can see eighteen months of Red Ed trying to breath new life into that 70's Ford Cortina being enough to remind some UKIPpers that the old days weren't always that great when Labour were in charge. Ed Miliband and his team have now conceded the economic battle and decided to lurch to the left in a 35% core vote strategy, this should sound familiar as its what the Tories did the other way in the early years of Opposition.
Labour have not only abandoned the centre ground of politics to the Conservatives, but they have also made it far easier for them to appeal to wavering voters who are currently flirting with UKIP without having to move too far too the right. And that is very bad news for Labour, the Libdems and UKIP. Going to be interesting to watch the movements in the Conservative and UKIP polling numbers. Its going to be the economy that decides this upcoming GE, and with the emphasis on stability and optimism for its future growth and prosperity. And any Labour policies that can be portrayed as being cynical or risking a sustained longer term recovery of the nations finances are going to be toxic for them.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn It is interesting that Labour feels it must exclude @Nigel_Farage from TV debates - suggests they as vulnerable as Tories to UKIP.
Excluding UKIP will increase their popularity IMO. The debates will be between three people with the same metropolitan views.
I agree with that and pretty dumb of LAB
The more UKIP is promoted the more it undermines the Tories and the better ut us for the red team
You'd think with a PR voting system there'd be a successful anti-EU party there.
I support the Coalition's position on not restoring the death penalty, but it doesn't make me vote for them. It's not seen as salient since it obviously won't happen - even the AfD wasn't proposing withdrawal, merely a more Cameron-like scepticism. I don't think there are ANY parties in Germany favouring withdrawal, even on the extremes.
Jests aside, I think this week we saw the death of New Labour. The courting of business by Labour is clearly over. It is not just the utilities that are unhappy about price freezes. What other industry will next be the target?
What surprises me most about the proposal is not that it is a populist gimmick (there are plenty of other ways to pay voters £120 per household), it is how poorly worked up. Ed was Energy minister, yet did not have answers to simple and obvious questions such as "how would you ensure continued investment in new power generation?" or "What happens if wholesale prices increase dramatically during the freeze?" Time will tell if any of the other policies are equally shallowly developed.
Speeches and standing ovations count for little. IDS got one 6/52 before his defenestration.
I think that Ed Miliband's Conference speech has done far more to undermine UKIP here and now when it comes to their Conservative leaning supporters. And I can see eighteen months of Red Ed trying to breath new life into that 70's Ford Cortina being enough to remind some UKIPpers that the old days weren't always that great when Labour were in charge. Ed Miliband and his team have now conceded the economic battle and decided to lurch to the left in a 35% core vote strategy, this should sound familiar as its what the Tories did the other way in the early years of Opposition.
Labour have not only abandoned the centre ground of politics to the Conservatives, but they have also made it far easier for them to appeal to wavering voters who are currently flirting with UKIP without having to move too far too the right. And that is very bad news for Labour, the Libdems and UKIP. Going to be interesting to watch the movements in the Conservative and UKIP polling numbers. Its going to be the economy that decides this upcoming GE, and with the emphasis on stability and optimism for its future growth and prosperity. And any Labour policies that can be portrayed as being cynical or risking a sustained longer term recovery of the nations finances are going to be toxic for them.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn It is interesting that Labour feels it must exclude @Nigel_Farage from TV debates - suggests they as vulnerable as Tories to UKIP.
Excluding UKIP will increase their popularity IMO. The debates will be between three people with the same metropolitan views.
I agree with that and pretty dumb of LAB
The more UKIP is promoted the more it undermines the Tories and the better ut us for the red team
"The modern urban obsession with celebrity buildings and high-profile events offers too many publicity-rich targets. A World Trade Centre, a Mumbai hotel, a Boston marathon, a Nairobi shopping mall are all enticing to extremists. Defending them is near impossible. Better at least not to create them. A shopping mall not only wipes out shopping streets, it makes a perfect terrorist fortress, near impossible to assault."
Good point you can hand back £120 or whatever dead easy to one section if you claw it back somewhere else.
Suppose the Tories could say " let's cut fuel VAT by x % " and you get a fuel price cut with us rather than Ed's freeze and with no law of unintended consequences risk of cutting supply or the need to buy in candles just in case... But the books have to balance somewhere else.
a) Conservative Business Interests has a better ring to it.
and:
b) is more topical given next week's party conference.
Sunil / Chuvapp
The most important part of the CBI statement was its concluding paragraph:
The best way to raise living standards is through growth. It's only when we start to see solid and sustainable growth that wages will pick up and people will start to feel better off.
The UK is currently experiencing growth which is not only above the country's fifty year trend level; not only above the EU average and all large European countries including Germany; but also above the OECD average and above its individual members such as the US, Japan and Canada.
If this rate of growth can be sustained through to the end of Q2 2015, it will do far more to improve living standards than any regulatory intervention or market fiddling being proposed by Ed Miliband.
So the real question that should be asked today is not whether Ed is right - any economist will tell you price controls don't work both from theory and known practice - but whether Osborne can maintain the current rate of growth in the UK economy through to the election. If he can, the debate on living standards and energy costs will be long dead before voters mark their crosses..
Now we cannot forecast that far forward with a high degree of reliability, even if we exclude the potential impact of external shocks. But the probability of sustained growth is getter higher by the month, This can be concluded not just from UK data but from better figures from our trading partners, especially in the EU and the US.
And we can look at short term indicators in the UK which are all pointing to sustained growth even if maybe a little off its peak in mid summer.
I will post separately key findings from today's CBI report on September sales, the first of three main retail sales reports for the month. Read it and consider whether its contents are a better or worse guide to the future prospects for UK standards of living than anything said by Ed Miliband in his speech yesterday.
• 46% of respondents reported that sales volumes were up on a year ago, while 12% said they were down, giving a balance of +34% - the strongest since June 2012 (+42%) and exceeding expectations (+26%)
• Retailers expect sales volumes to grow at a similarly strong pace next month (+31%)
• There was a broad-based increase in sales across many sub-sectors with furniture & carpets, department stores, recreational good retailers and grocers performing strongly:
• A balance of +100% of furniture & carpets retailers said business volumes were up – the strongest since August 1996.
• 52% of department stores said business volumes were up, while 0% said they were down, giving a balance of +52%
• 65% of recreational goods retailers said business volumes were up, while 0% said they were down, giving a balance of +65%
• 50% of grocers said business volumes were up, while 17% said they were down, giving a balance of +33%.
• Chemists were the only sub-sector to report a fall in business volumes (-72%)
• Overall, 22% of retailers said that sales volumes were above average for the time of year, while 10% said they were below average, giving a balance of +12% - the highest survey balance since December 2010 (+18%)
• 36% placed more orders with suppliers than they did a year ago and 22% placed fewer, with the resulting balance of +14%.
Wholesalers
50% of wholesalers said sales volumes were up while 10% said they were down, giving a balance of +40% - the strongest pace of growth since June 2013 (+45%). Most sub-sectors saw growth, with building materials (+100%) and clothing, textiles & footwear (+56%) in the lead. Only food & drink saw a decline in sales (-13%), marking the first year-on-year fall since May. Overall, sales are expected to rise solidly again in the year to October, but at a slower pace than this month (+28%).
Motor traders
64% of motor traders said sales volumes were up while 36% said they were down, giving a balance of +28%, a slower pace of growth than in the previous month (+93%).
Jests aside, I think this week we saw the death of New Labour. The courting of business by Labour is clearly over. It is not just the utilities that are unhappy about price freezes. What other industry will next be the target?
Ch4 asked the same question
If the model for intervention is a small number of firms in a restricted market, would an Ed Miliband government intervene in mobile phones or broadband?
The day after miliband says Cameron for caring about his rich 'friends at the top' we get this.
I do my best of defending the tories against another labour government,labour should be punished for they time in office but Cameron and co just keep making it easy against a average labour opposition,I give up.
You'd think with a PR voting system there'd be a successful anti-EU party there.
I don't think there are ANY parties in Germany favouring withdrawal, even on the extremes.
That's what surprises me. There's a 31% chunk in favour of leaving the EU, and no party has emerged to represent that opinion.
Why's that surprising ? In the UK we've really only had a party favourable to withdrawl in the last 10 years. Like a lot of mainstream parties the BOO position will be a substream of opinion within a broad church. AfD, FDP and CSU have all got their share of eurosceptics of one shade or another.
I would agree with that wholeheartedly, this weeks Labour Conference did indeed see the death of New Labour. I wonder how many UKIPpers who thought another five years of 'New Labour' was a price worth paying to get rid of Cameron will now be quite so relaxed about five years of Old Labour? And what about all those voters who work in the private sector and are relying on continued investment and growth in this area to give them the job security to really see an improvement in their living standards?
Jests aside, I think this week we saw the death of New Labour. The courting of business by Labour is clearly over. It is not just the utilities that are unhappy about price freezes. What other industry will next be the target?
What surprises me most about the proposal is not that it is a populist gimmick (there are plenty of other ways to pay voters £120 per household), it is how poorly worked up. Ed was Energy minister, yet did not have answers to simple and obvious questions such as "how would you ensure continued investment in new power generation?" or "What happens if wholesale prices increase dramatically during the freeze?" Time will tell if any of the other policies are equally shallowly developed.
Speeches and standing ovations count for little. IDS got one 6/52 before his defenestration.
You'd think with a PR voting system there'd be a successful anti-EU party there.
I don't think there are ANY parties in Germany favouring withdrawal, even on the extremes.
That's what surprises me. There's a 31% chunk in favour of leaving the EU, and no party has emerged to represent that opinion.
Yes, it's odd now you mention it. I think partly it's seen as a non-live issue - that's why I compared with the death penalty here. People are for or against, but nobody thinks it's really coming back. I think a party which majored on withdrawal would be seen as unserious - a deadly accusation in Germany. Also, the German party landscape is quite solid because of the high 5% threshold (in Denmark where it's 2% parties come and go a bit more readily), which is not that easy to beat, as both AfD and FDP have found.
Interesting thought. After the Andrew Neil / Nick Robinson lead in to the EdM speech, Nick said he was embargoed from saying anything but Neil blabbed the details anyway. First time I've respected an ex-young tory and thought less of an ex-tory intern frae Paisley.
Out of interest, given the share price falls today - does insider trading rules apply to political statements? Anyone with prior knowledge of that speech could have had a bit selling short.
Comments
This is great political viewing. As Nick Robinson said on the noos earlier, it's highly unusual for an opposition to make such an impact.
Indeed. Even the usually sensible Richard N isn't immune, frantically retweeting "evidence" from every vested interest under the sun. I agree with your analysis below, by the way, about Ed's speech. I didn't much care for the presentation either. Imagine my surprise when I got home to find the media giving it raves.
I'm saying they will get a modest bounce, then the Tory conference will knock things back to where they were before conference season.
If the energy freeze is so bad and will be so unpopular, put yourself out there and say so, otherwise we'll know it's just partisan nonsense.
Indeed, it's not the normal chip-paper of usual Loto speeches.
I can't quite decide whether Labour supporters understand the obvious truth that this is utterly bonkers but hope it will be populist, or if they really believe it's a good idea. I hope it's not the latter.
But one smallish but significant group have not been given enough attention. The Blairites were upset about Syria. Some of them are seething about the left turn. John Rentoul is only the most visible of these.
Ed Miliband will have reinforced the enthusiasm of his core, but the fringe may be getting fringier.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/9490712/Energy-companies-overcharge-customers-by-600m.html
What it probably has / will do is harden Labour's current support. Which, happily for Ed Miliband, is enough to see him PM.
Conference next week, I know you're rattled but you Tories need to regain some composure and work out how to respond to this.
you are completely over blowing your response to a reasonable speech by a LOTO and a policy announcement which will be dwarfed in importance by many others in the next 18 months .
"The most frightening thing is that I have a horrible feeling that Ed really does think that power stations grow spontaneously out of the ground."
Considering EdM's lack of interest in the demolishing of the old Thorpe Marsh coal power station in his constituency and its proposed replacement with a new gas power station you may be right.
I have speculated before that middle class metropolitans associate the phrase 'power station' not with a heavy industrial site which produces electricity but with either a modern art gallery (Bankside) or a property development opportunity (Battersea).
I think what is scaring Richard et al isn;t ed's announcement, but that people might vote for it, which says more about his opinion of the British people and the tories ability to win the argument on this than it does about Ed's proposal itself.
Maybe you and also Labour supporters think this is a jolly wheeze which will get votes for Labour and that's the end of it. Well, it may get votes for Labour (it will almost certainly lead to a short-term polling boost), but it's not a free lunch: this sort of thing has real repercussions in the real world. The problem of investment in energy infrastructure was already dire; it's just got even worse.
If Labour VI goes up it will show that respondents are too stupid to understand the impact of rEd's proposal.
If Labour VI goes down it will show that they are too intelligent to be duped by a charlatan.
If Lib Dem votes go up it will show that Mark Senior has a PB franking machine.
"The Left might view Thatcher as an easy scapegoat. But here's the thing: the 221,000 houses built in Thatcher's last year have never been matched since."
Odd how PB's house building enthusiast hasn't mentioned that ;-)
"Both Labour and the Conservatives have consistently shirked house-building. In the context of spending targets on the NHS or education, housing was for too long deemed an unobtrusive way of cutting. You might get voted out because the schools or hospitals weren't good enough, but whoever heard of a government booted out for not building?"
Exactly, which is why EdM is going to spend more money on public sector pay increases and not on building houses.
Have the PB leftists accepted that yet or are they still pretending otherwise ?
No comment required....too busy ROFL'ing
The new iOS 7 iPhone upgrade has an auto-upload-to-Facebook function...he is not going to be the last one caught out by this.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24276349
So we have one Conservative backbench MP who has used it derogatively, and over half a billion pounds given by the coalition to help such 'problem' (*) families.
I think you're on a loser here, mate.
Over half a billion pounds to help the worst off and most problematic families. Not in handouts, but to try and help them find a better way forward. It won;t work with all, but every family helped is great for us all.
And it was not done by Labour central government, but by the Conservative and Liberal Democrats.
It's no wonder you fall back on the 'scroungers' lie. You must be so ashamed.
(*) I don't actually like the word 'problem', but it's hard to think of a decent descriptive alternative.
A policy announcement by an opposition politician which, on a single day, wipes £2 billion off the value of an industry of strategic importance to the country.
Nothing to worry about.
All in a day's knockabout of JCR and blog politics.
Talking of give away.... Whilst having a coffee in cap Ferrat I got a call from my stockbroker asking if I wanted to buy any Royal Mail. I said I didn't believe in the privatization so "no".
He said that was a pity because it was a certain profit and likely to pay a dividend in excess of 6%. I asked why? He replied that the government just can't afford to let it fail so he expects the terms to be a give away and he expects them to be oversubscribed by about 10x.
So I decided to abandon my principles and asked him to get me £10,000 worth. He said there's no point as I'd probably end up with just £1,000 worth.
I said that was good because I didn't really want any anyway and my principles could stay intact.
I have always thought you were more of a doe than a stag.
;-)
I have no idea what language it is though, Sunil. I have to admit it does look a little foreign to me.
http://www.itv.com/news/2013-09-25/why-is-george-osborne-standing-up-for-bankers-bonuses/
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-09-25/osborne-takes-legal-action-against-eu-over-bonus-caps/
"Richard Barnes, former London deputy mayor, has given a new meaning to being an Assembly “Member” after accidently uploading pictures of his penis to Facebook for all his followers to see.
Barnes, 66, who is the Conservative member for Hillingdon and Ealing in London uploaded the pictures moments ago in what appears to be a rather drastic error caused by his iPhone’s auto upload settings."
http://www.trendingcentral.com/london-deputy-mayor-uploads-dick-pics-to-facebook/
I have expressed doubts on here about certain aspects of GO's policies ( such as boosting the housing market) but geez it pales after yesterday's messages from Brighton.
Restrict prices you will create shortages eventually as producers deem it's not worth their while producing or sell to markets where they can get a better price ( see bog rolls in Venezula 2013, eastern Bloc 1945 - 89, or trying to get a bloody phone installed by the GPO in the 1970's and many others).
How depressing.
twitter.com/pswidlicki/status/382850162407649281
http://yougov.de/news/2013/09/25/umfrage-viele-deutsche-wollen-der-eu-bleiben/
http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://yougov.de/news/2013/09/25/umfrage-viele-deutsche-wollen-der-eu-bleiben/
He - or at least his wife - appears to be the only Labour politician to have had a positive impact on British industry.
Supporting recent signs of an improving economy, a survey by Superyacht UK has shown that sales of the luxury vessels climbed 3.9 per cent in the 2012/13 financial year, having contracted 2.2 per cent the previous year.
Perhaps Andy could get Marie-France to have a quiet word in Ed's ear?
How can they refuse to accept a guilty plea?
'But one smallish but significant group have not been given enough attention. The Blairites were upset about Syria. Some of them are seething about the left turn. John Rentoul is only the most visible of these.'
He was certainly not a happy camper last night when he said Labour would be the only anti business party fighting the next election.
Digby Jones called it a return to 'ideological tribal socialism'
Out on the doorstep this weekend. Will be interesting to hear what public have to say. Will post feedback.
http://news.sky.com/story/1146336/osborne-takes-legal-action-over-eu-bonus-cap
This morning defending the energy companies, this afternoon defending bankers....pure gold!
Modern dating's a minefield of compatibility issues, difficulty connecting, and general responsiveness (and that's just the technology).
Here is the CBI verdict:
Ed Miliband's speech: the business verdict
Businesses will view the proposals on tax and energy laid out by Ed Miliband in Brighton today at the Labour Party Conference as a setback for Labour's pro-enterprise credentials.
Rising energy bills are tough on families and businesses. But the proposed energy price freeze will deter much-needed investment and is at odds with Labour's pledge to decarbonise the economy and create a million green jobs.
The main reasons that bills are going up is the combination of rising wholesale prices, the cost of policies needed to keep the lights on and the move to a low-carbon economy.
Meanwhile, the reductions in corporation tax have sent a clear signal that Britain is open for business, boosted investment and spurred job creation.
Mr Miliband’s proposal to reduce business rates has merit, but to do it for some firms, through an increase in corporation tax for others, is divisive.
Success for many smaller firms goes hand-in-hand with that of larger firms through supply chains and it's important to remember that large firms employ ten million people. To be pro-enterprise Labour must speak for all businesses.
On house-building we have fallen woefully behind and the commitment to 200,000 homes a year is a great ambition. To achieve this we need house builders on board, not criticised for holding on to land when it's not viable to build on it.
Employers want to take on more apprentices irrespective of the need to bring in highly-skilled migrants.
Mr Miliband also mentioned a sectoral approach to setting a higher minimum wage, which would be unworkable and hit smallest companies the hardest. Not all companies working in the same sector operate on the same margins.
The best way to raise living standards is through growth. It's only when we start to see solid and sustainable growth that wages will pick up and people will start to feel better off.
I think:
a) Conservative Business Interests has a better ring to it.
and:
b) is more topical given next week's party conference.
Labour have not only abandoned the centre ground of politics to the Conservatives, but they have also made it far easier for them to appeal to wavering voters who are currently flirting with UKIP without having to move too far too the right. And that is very bad news for Labour, the Libdems and UKIP. Going to be interesting to watch the movements in the Conservative and UKIP polling numbers. Its going to be the economy that decides this upcoming GE, and with the emphasis on stability and optimism for its future growth and prosperity. And any Labour policies that can be portrayed as being cynical or risking a sustained longer term recovery of the nations finances are going to be toxic for them.
What surprises me most about the proposal is not that it is a populist gimmick (there are plenty of other ways to pay voters £120 per household), it is how poorly worked up. Ed was Energy minister, yet did not have answers to simple and obvious questions such as "how would you ensure continued investment in new power generation?" or "What happens if wholesale prices increase dramatically during the freeze?" Time will tell if any of the other policies are equally shallowly developed.
Speeches and standing ovations count for little. IDS got one 6/52 before his defenestration.
http://news.sky.com/story/1146481/peru-drugs-pairs-guilty-pleas-rejected
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/23/kenya-mall-attacks-david-cameron
"The modern urban obsession with celebrity buildings and high-profile events offers too many publicity-rich targets. A World Trade Centre, a Mumbai hotel, a Boston marathon, a Nairobi shopping mall are all enticing to extremists. Defending them is near impossible. Better at least not to create them. A shopping mall not only wipes out shopping streets, it makes a perfect terrorist fortress, near impossible to assault."
Good point you can hand back £120 or whatever dead easy to one section if you claw it back somewhere else.
Suppose the Tories could say " let's cut fuel VAT by x % " and you get a fuel price cut with us rather than Ed's freeze and with no law of unintended consequences risk of cutting supply or the need to buy in candles just in case... But the books have to balance somewhere else.
Not sure about that, Avery.
I think:
a) Conservative Business Interests has a better ring to it.
and:
b) is more topical given next week's party conference.
Sunil / Chuvapp
The most important part of the CBI statement was its concluding paragraph:
The best way to raise living standards is through growth. It's only when we start to see solid and sustainable growth that wages will pick up and people will start to feel better off.
The UK is currently experiencing growth which is not only above the country's fifty year trend level; not only above the EU average and all large European countries including Germany; but also above the OECD average and above its individual members such as the US, Japan and Canada.
If this rate of growth can be sustained through to the end of Q2 2015, it will do far more to improve living standards than any regulatory intervention or market fiddling being proposed by Ed Miliband.
So the real question that should be asked today is not whether Ed is right - any economist will tell you price controls don't work both from theory and known practice - but whether Osborne can maintain the current rate of growth in the UK economy through to the election. If he can, the debate on living standards and energy costs will be long dead before voters mark their crosses..
Now we cannot forecast that far forward with a high degree of reliability, even if we exclude the potential impact of external shocks. But the probability of sustained growth is getter higher by the month, This can be concluded not just from UK data but from better figures from our trading partners, especially in the EU and the US.
And we can look at short term indicators in the UK which are all pointing to sustained growth even if maybe a little off its peak in mid summer.
I will post separately key findings from today's CBI report on September sales, the first of three main retail sales reports for the month. Read it and consider whether its contents are a better or worse guide to the future prospects for UK standards of living than anything said by Ed Miliband in his speech yesterday.
The CBI Survey on September Sales
Key findings:
• 46% of respondents reported that sales volumes were up on a year ago, while 12% said they were down, giving a balance of +34% - the strongest since June 2012 (+42%) and exceeding expectations (+26%)
• Retailers expect sales volumes to grow at a similarly strong pace next month (+31%)
• There was a broad-based increase in sales across many sub-sectors with furniture & carpets, department stores, recreational good retailers and grocers performing strongly:
• A balance of +100% of furniture & carpets retailers said business volumes were up – the strongest since August 1996.
• 52% of department stores said business volumes were up, while 0% said they were down, giving a balance of +52%
• 65% of recreational goods retailers said business volumes were up, while 0% said they were down, giving a balance of +65%
• 50% of grocers said business volumes were up, while 17% said they were down, giving a balance of +33%.
• Chemists were the only sub-sector to report a fall in business volumes (-72%)
• Overall, 22% of retailers said that sales volumes were above average for the time of year, while 10% said they were below average, giving a balance of +12% - the highest survey balance since December 2010 (+18%)
• 36% placed more orders with suppliers than they did a year ago and 22% placed fewer, with the resulting balance of +14%.
Wholesalers
50% of wholesalers said sales volumes were up while 10% said they were down, giving a balance of +40% - the strongest pace of growth since June 2013 (+45%). Most sub-sectors saw growth, with building materials (+100%) and clothing, textiles & footwear (+56%) in the lead. Only food & drink saw a decline in sales (-13%), marking the first year-on-year fall since May. Overall, sales are expected to rise solidly again in the year to October, but at a slower pace than this month (+28%).
Motor traders
64% of motor traders said sales volumes were up while 36% said they were down, giving a balance of +28%, a slower pace of growth than in the previous month (+93%).
If the model for intervention is a small number of firms in a restricted market, would an Ed Miliband government intervene in mobile phones or broadband?
Err...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24273838
The day after miliband says Cameron for caring about his rich 'friends at the top' we get this.
I do my best of defending the tories against another labour government,labour should be punished for they time in office but Cameron and co just keep making it easy against a average labour opposition,I give up.
totally agree the best way for living standards is growth.
When can we have a CoE who knows something about wealth creation ?