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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Brexit is ever to be reversed it’ll be down to the 13% who think Brexit will negatively impact the economy but not their personal finances
New ICM poll has Tories +3 on Labour (Con 43% Lab 40%) but don't worry about that look at this. Although 45% think Brexit will be bad for GB economy only 1 in 3 think it will negatively impact them personally. This is really important for Remain / soft Brexiters to grasp. pic.twitter.com/LfcdIQAtIn
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Arma-Gideon Times......
No difference
No difference
Positive
Would be interesting to run the poll amongst PBers.
If repeated in a general election it would give Con 321, Lab 253, Lib Dem 16, according to Baxter (in reality, I think the Conservatives could finish anywhere between 310-330, with so many tiny majorities).
Rejoining would mean no rebate and signing up to the eurozone. In short, our departure is like jumping over a wall, but the ground is significantly lower on the side we're jumping onto as we leave.
I'd agree with Qs 2 and 3.
I think you've set the Standard for Osborne-related puns.
Personally of course it has been negative since like most other people I am an importer (I buy fuel which is fundamentally a USD purchase). Going forward there are probably some frictional costs for the business, particularly if it is toward the harder end of the spectrum and there may be some big missed opportunity costs if it causes us to lose out on contracts due to being ex EU. Reclaiming of VAT for work done in Europe if that is not possible would be a direct cost.
Of course we're more competitive whilst sterling is weak which is the case compared to the counterfactual of a remain vote particularly to USD.
So the impact would have to be 3 don't know from me
If leaving does result in anything really good or really bad at individual level, opinion could change quite quickly. But if we just bumble on with some sort of fudged deal and nothing much changes, people will continue to give meh answers to polls.
Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).
I live in the country where I can hear sheep bleating from my bathroom window, and wake up to parks and sparrows foraging in my garden. All around me is green verdant countryside.
Peaceful bliss, but never boring.
I think there's a reasonable amount of economic damage/upside that could be tolerated without either side being able to convince the public that it was down to leaving the EU.
So even if we end up in a recession in 2019, I think it's plausible that it could be blamed in the media/public consciousness on other causes.
But negative with a whimper rather than a bang. I dont see any economic or social benefits at all from Brexit. Losing one customer does not help gain another.
On the other hand, increasing staff shortages due to loss of EU workers should increase my ability to improve my pay rate, at least when doing locums.
But I see what Mr P means, and I think he’s right that if, for example, there were massive queues on the M20........ although that might well not impinge North of Watford........ or a lack of/ significant increase in price of vegetables and soft fruit people would start taking a different view.
Interestingly there was on BBC last night a story about shortages of labour to pick, inter alia, strawberries, largely because Romanian workers felt it wasn’t worth coming here.
They're like the person who was sold a manual on how to turn their terraced house into a mansion only to discover after some months with the wrecking ball that they're not getting a mansion but creating a wreck.
It's only at that point that their naivety and avarice will become obvious and they'll want to switch back the clock.
Car weakness is because of a significant aerodynamic flaw, disrupting air flow to the rear. Particularly affects long corners. So, they were ok at Monaco, and will be at Singapore, but they're going to have fun when it comes to Japan and 130R.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/44309487
* if it is a job lossy Brexit my wife is somewhat more likely to be in the firing line than me, so that is the risk factor, but even in 79-82 it is easy to forget that only a few % lost their jobs to create the impact it did. When southerners are genuinely bewildered by the hatred for "Fatcha" (as many on here put it) it is because it never really happened in their eyes (and the left forget at their peril that the southern experience of the 80s is perfectly valid).
Any day to day inflation and tax changes will be dwarfed by the household budget changes of a child turning 3.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1002080118913798144
Had we voted to Remain whilst I would have expected macroeconomic nominal GDP growth to be well north of 2% (maybe even 2.5%) and paying down the deficit even
Faster. However, also think GDP/USD would have been trading north of 1.5, and us to be having record levels of net immigration as the economy sucked in more and more people from across Europe.
George Osborne would have been very happy with that, but I suspect immigration would now be our number one political issue and very contentious, with UKIP surging in the polls.
Except I think it misses the point. The underlying reasons why people voted to Leave matter far more for the future direction of politics than the EU in itself or their interest in it.
I really doubt those riled by mass migration are going to be happy to find nothing has changed in five years time.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/james-cusick/george-osborne-s-london-evening-standard-promises-positive-news-coverage-to-uber-goo
in 5 years a machine will do the picking
http://www.producebusinessuk.com/purchasing/stories/2017/02/07/robot-trials-aim-to-cut-strawberry-harvesting-time-and-control-costs
I suspect that the angry right wing populists will continue to blame everyone but themselves, including the EU for being unfriendly.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/james-cusick/george-osborne-s-london-evening-standard-promises-positive-news-coverage-to-uber-goo
The Standard has denied it. Sort of.
http://www.thedrum.com/news/2018/05/30/evening-standard-denies-taking-cash-uber-and-google-favourable-news-coverage
A2 workers are in all sectors but particularly building and hospitality as I recall.
wanedowned by a Russian oligarch and edited by a Cameroon Tory even TSE has criticised (well, once).May I ask what your evidence is for the surprising suggestion that it has a soul?
Edited for spelling but original amusing and highly Freudian slip left in.
Even if the economy does go south because of a hard Brexit I would also expect that to lead to us returning to the single market and/or the customs union rather than the full EU
In part it is just a recency phenomenon. Mass immigration of Irish here is a historical phenomenon, and their children are born here, and increasingly that is the case forCommonwealth migrants. In time the Romanians will assimilate as well as Michael Howards or John Bercows Romanian ancestors.
There has always been a group of voters who want to kick out all the immigrants and will not be happy unless the Brexit vote leads to BNP/Lega Nord style mass deportations and a complete end to immigration but they are only a small minority of voters, even of Leavers, the type who think the problem with the Windrush affair was the government did not go far enough
Iain Martin is just pissed that Osborne is doing a great job at The Standard despite the predictions of no marks like Iain Martin.
The ratchet will only turn one way once we're left and I find it difficult to imagine it will be in the direction of the aggravation and conflict that has defined the last couple of years.
There may be some Remainer extremists still manning the ramparts as we gradually extricate ourselves further over the next decade or so (and that may be no bad thing) but I cannot see any political party of consequence being willing to go in to a GE on a manifesto of a rejoining referendum.
Voters would run a mile.
The former are more concerned about immigration from outside the EU and particularly those who do not share our culture or values or who have a radical anti western agenda
Average tariff on cars US - 2.5% EU - 10%
Average tarrif on all goods US - 3.5% EU - 5.2%
Free trade imports as % of total US - 48% EU -26%
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article176832903/US-Strafzoelle-Europas-Zerrissenheit-ist-Trumps-grosser-Vorteil.html
All a bit one sided
Anyway there doesn't seem to be any shortage of local strawberries in the supermarkets this year:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/feb/22/earliest-ever-british-strawberries-arrive-supermarket-shelves-wales
Positive - but I do work in an export related business and my investments have gone up
Positive - the country will have to take responsibility for its own actions
There will be sectors and people where the experience will be negative though.
We had two centuries of increasing agricultural productivity and now some people want to reverse it.
Negative (in a dreary November way, but lasting forever)
Strongly positive
Strongly negative
Good to see The Mail has taken up Andrew O'Hagan's piece for the LRB. No one comes out of it particularly well, but I have to say Javid and May seem to have been particularly spineless, solipsistic and opportunist.
But let's not let that stop us having interminable arguments over Brexit on PB, eh? On he whole it's harmless fun and keeps us out of mischief!
Still not as embarrassing as your intervention on the European Arrest Warrant yesterday which was pure Donald Trump.
TSE:[distressed] What have I done?
Darth Gideon (aka Chancellor Osborne): You are fulfilling your destiny, TSE. Become my apprentice. Learn to use the Daft Side of the Force. There's no turning back now.
TSE: I will do whatever you ask. Just help me save Theresa's political career. I can't live without her. If she resigns, I don't know what I will do regarding "May is crap" threads!
Darth Gideon: To cheat political osbcurity is a power only one has achieved through centuries of the study of the Force. But if we work together, I know we can discover the secret to eternal AV Threads!
TSE: I pledge myself to your teachings. To the ways of the REMAIN Campaign.
Darth Gideon: Good. Good! The Force is strong with you, TSE. A powerful REMAINER you will become. Henceforth, you shall be known as Darth... Eagles.
TSE: Thank you... my Master.
Darth Gideon: Lord Eagles... rise.
Interesting piece here by George Eaton on Thatcherite/popular capitalism.
move to Essex faster and you wont have a problem
https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1001835452603731973
https://twitter.com/hhesterm/status/1001923945082351618
Poland
Czecha
Denmark
Sweden
Hungary
Slovenia
Romania
Bulgaria
(The UK)
Although of course Montenegro, Kosovo, and four of the five European microstates (all except Lichtenstein) have adopted it as well despite being outside the EU.
That is why full-blooded federation of the EU is impossible right now. A full-blooded federation of the EZ including the elections for head of government/head of state may however be necessary to stop it imploding altogether.
The grim irony is that if the EZ had gone for federation ten years ago as it should have done and the rest including Switzerland, Norway, Turkey and Ukraine had gone for free trade cum single market we would as a nation have been thrilled I think to join the latter.
"What competition actually does is make service providers deliver more of what the customer wants. When building control was with the local authority, when they were the only people doing it, their customers were the public.’
‘And with social housing, the residents,’ I said.
‘Yes. But once you introduce competition, the customer is the person building the hotel, that’s who they’re really wanting to satisfy, because they want their business. Will I win that business by being really strict and worrying about the patrons’ ability to escape through the door? No. I win that business by saying to the person who’s building the hotel: “I’ll charge you next to nothing for approving the plans and I will use my discretion very generously when I’m looking at your plans and deciding whether or not they actually comply.”’"
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/feb/22/earliest-ever-british-strawberries-arrive-supermarket-shelves-wales
Still if you've been taken in by the annual 'why are Wimbledon strawberries so expensive' story.
Mr. P, a wise and handsome fellow pointed out the wrongness:
https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska/status/1001726927584071680
FTSE reasons for not appointing women board members
The top 10 excuses for not appointing women were:
"I don't think women fit comfortably into the board environment"
"There aren't that many women with the right credentials and depth of experience to sit on the board - the issues covered are extremely complex"
"Most women don't want the hassle or pressure of sitting on a board"
"Shareholders just aren't interested in the make-up of the board, so why should we be?"
"My other board colleagues wouldn't want to appoint a woman on our board"
"All the 'good' women have already been snapped up"
"We have one woman already on the board, so we are done - it is someone else's turn"
"There aren't any vacancies at the moment - if there were I would think about appointing a woman"
"We need to build the pipeline from the bottom - there just aren't enough senior women in this sector"
"I can't just appoint a woman because I want to"
1603 also saw the founding of the company making soy sauce that became Kikkoman....
I think people in this country have had enough of experts.
6 June 2016, in interview with Faisal Islam. Gove's actual quote was: "I think that the people of this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying - from organisations with acronyms - saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong, because these people - these people - are the same ones who got consistently wrong." The shortened quote was reported due to Islam interrupting Gove while he was speaking Gove: Britons "Have Had Enough of Experts" but Gove had no intention of ending the sentence there.
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Michael_Gove