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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s a Sheffield rally style hubris around Jeremy Corbyn an

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  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,290
    While we have team twat on the verge of taking power, we have smart sensible people like this who can't get elected.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FniPiSLut8
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    Clearly as I have said only Davidson polls better than May of the main Tory leadership contenders
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    Davidson to take over after May's narrow 2022 victory ?
    If the Tories win next time they will almost certainly lose the 2027 general election.

    No party has won a fifth consecutive term in office for over a century
    Gambler's fallacy
    Not really, General Elections are not independent events - people do grow weary of Governments. Lebo and Norpoth have a paper on this:

    https://docs.google.com/a/stonybrook.edu/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=c3Rvbnlicm9vay5lZHV8bWF0dGhldy1sZWJvfGd4OjY2NzA4Y2IyMThlMGNmMTA

    "The PM and the pendulum"
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Anyone know how far Thatcher was behind Callaghan in the best PM rating in 79 ?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    Davidson to take over after May's narrow 2022 victory ?
    If the Tories win next time they will almost certainly lose the 2027 general election.

    No party has won a fifth consecutive term in office for over a century
    Yes, the Tories have a very slim chance of winning in 2027 if 2022 is another 92 so to speak.
    In fact no party has won a 5th term in office since the Great Reform Act of 1832, the last time it happened was when the Duke of Wellington succeeded the Earl of Liverpool and won the 1830 general election. Though the Liberals won a landslide at the general election after that
    In fact it was so long ago the Liberals were still called the Whigs
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,376
    Bra charts proving conclusively that Labour won General Election 2017!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,376
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    Davidson to take over after May's narrow 2022 victory ?
    If the Tories win next time they will almost certainly lose the 2027 general election.

    No party has won a fifth consecutive term in office for over a century
    Yes, the Tories have a very slim chance of winning in 2027 if 2022 is another 92 so to speak.
    Indeed even Kinnock would likely have won in 1997, Blair just made it a huge Labour landslide
    Even Michael Foot would have won in '97!
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2018
    Another referendum ?

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-there-be-a-second-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-once-we-know-the-terms-the-government-has-negotiated/



    Poll by Opinium 16 May 2018

    Should be a second referendum 37%
    Should not be a second referendum 49%
    Don't Know 14%

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Given Labour got 40% at the general election that means about a quarter of Labour voters do not think Corbyn is up to being PM.

    By contrast the 44% who think May is up to being PM are 2% more than the Tories got at the general election
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    Davidson to take over after May's narrow 2022 victory ?
    If the Tories win next time they will almost certainly lose the 2027 general election.

    No party has won a fifth consecutive term in office for over a century
    Yes, the Tories have a very slim chance of winning in 2027 if 2022 is another 92 so to speak.
    Indeed even Kinnock would likely have won in 1997, Blair just made it a huge Labour landslide
    Even Michael Foot would have won in '97!
    Probably but it would have been much closer
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Given Labour got 40% at the general election that means about a quarter of Labour voters do not think Corbyn is up to being PM.

    By contrast the 44% who think May is up to being PM are 2% more than the Tories got at the general election
    Yes some good numbers for May there.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    Davidson to take over after May's narrow 2022 victory ?
    If the Tories win next time they will almost certainly lose the 2027 general election.

    No party has won a fifth consecutive term in office for over a century
    Yes, the Tories have a very slim chance of winning in 2027 if 2022 is another 92 so to speak.
    In fact no party has won a 5th term in office since the Great Reform Act of 1832, the last time it happened was when the Duke of Wellington succeeded the Earl of Liverpool and won the 1830 general election. Though the Liberals won a landslide at the general election after that
    In fact it was so long ago the Liberals were still called the Whigs
    All you have to do is bet big on a labour majority, and double your bet for the next election each time they lose....
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    TGOHF said:

    Another referendum ?

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-there-be-a-second-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-once-we-know-the-terms-the-government-has-negotiated/



    Poll by Opinium 16 May 2018

    Should be a second referendum 37%
    Should not be a second referendum 49%
    Don't Know 14%

    Remain has now bored everyone so shitless they cant face another 2years of moaning
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Bra charts proving conclusively that Labour won General Election 2017!

    I haven't come across that type of chart before, but no doubt they are excellent for presenting data to Sun readers.

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,376

    Bra charts proving conclusively that Labour won General Election 2017!

    I haven't come across that type of chart before, but no doubt they are excellent for presenting data to Sun readers.

    It was a deliberate error :lol:
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057

    TGOHF said:

    Another referendum ?

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-there-be-a-second-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-once-we-know-the-terms-the-government-has-negotiated/



    Poll by Opinium 16 May 2018

    Should be a second referendum 37%
    Should not be a second referendum 49%
    Don't Know 14%

    Remain has now bored everyone so shitless they cant face another 2years of moaning
    Now leavers know how the rest of the country felt after two decades of their constant whinging ... ;)
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    TGOHF said:

    Another referendum ?

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-there-be-a-second-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-once-we-know-the-terms-the-government-has-negotiated/



    Poll by Opinium 16 May 2018

    Should be a second referendum 37%
    Should not be a second referendum 49%
    Don't Know 14%

    Remain has now bored everyone so shitless they cant face another 2years of moaning
    Let's hope there's no follow through.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Another referendum ?

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-there-be-a-second-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-once-we-know-the-terms-the-government-has-negotiated/



    Poll by Opinium 16 May 2018

    Should be a second referendum 37%
    Should not be a second referendum 49%
    Don't Know 14%

    Remain has now bored everyone so shitless they cant face another 2years of moaning
    Yes - imagine subjecting the country to another referendum, more negotiations and all for a more expensive deal than we had before - not even Jezza is daft enough to have that as a policy.

  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Anyone know how far Thatcher was behind Callaghan in the best PM rating in 79 ?
    O/T there is a long article on the FT website about the VAT point you raised yesterday.

    It says that there has been little negotiation on this yet, the UK wants to stay in some parts of the system but not others and the EU are adamant that there will be no cherry picking. And if there is no deal by March then we're f*ck*d.

    So just like the rest of the Brexit process really.....

  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Given Labour got 40% at the general election that means about a quarter of Labour voters do not think Corbyn is up to being PM.

    By contrast the 44% who think May is up to being PM are 2% more than the Tories got at the general election
    About a third of Labour voters think he's not up to the job, for Corbyn.

    His figures with Labour voters were 67% agree, 21% disagree (and presumably 12% unsure). he also received positive support from 5% of Tory voters and 11% of Lib Dems.

    May's scores with Tories were 81-14, with 21% of Labour voters thinking she has 'what it takes', and 36% of Lib Dems.

    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-04/pm-april-2018-tables.pdf
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mr. Jessop, from Nick Griffin's first comments to now, there's been a rising suspicion that the authorities either don't care or are very lax when it comes to tackling Muslim rape gangs (Rotherham, Rochdale, Oxford, Newcastle etc). So any suggestion of a media cover-up or authorities trying to prevent reporting has a ready made audience predisposed to at least give such a hearing, if not believe it right off the bat.

    The breach of the peace/terms of suspended sentence strangeness coupled with initial reporting restrictions only made that worse.

    [For the record, I do find the arrest terms and charge terms being seemingly different rather peculiar, but am persuaded by the chap (Nazir Ali?) who has performed successfully in prosecuting similar crimes and who was less than sympathetic to Robinson].

    Whether it be child abuse in Rotherham, electoral fraud in Tower Hamlets, or the exploitation of migrant labour in the garment industry in Leicester, our public authorities can seem keener to avoid accusations of racism than to uphold the rule of law.

    Then again, taking the easy way out isn’t new. I’m reading a book about the Easter Rising, and it’s telling that army officers who announced they would refuse to uphold Home Rule were let off, when by rights they should have been court-martialled, and if found guilty hanged.
    Those in the army who refused to do this knew they would get away with it because they had the support of the then Tory party. I know, that Tory party which was always going on about the rule of law and which, conveniently, forgot about this dishonourable part of their history, when criticising those - on the other side - who took up arms against the British state.
    TBF a lot of it was accidental

    As Carson once wrote, he never expected to be treading “the high road to treason and despair”
  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,436
    Grayling has written a letter to MPs blaming the Thameslink timetable introduction debacle on the timetablers in that nationalised entity Network Rail.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/712161/sos-letter-to-mps-gtr.pdf

    The London Reconnections blog has suggested a musical:

    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2018/thameslink-the-musical-act-4-scene-3-the-grayling-letter/
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    TGOHF said:

    Another referendum ?

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-there-be-a-second-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-once-we-know-the-terms-the-government-has-negotiated/



    Poll by Opinium 16 May 2018

    Should be a second referendum 37%
    Should not be a second referendum 49%
    Don't Know 14%

    Remain has now bored everyone so shitless they cant face another 2years of moaning
    Now leavers know how the rest of the country felt after two decades of their constant whinging ... ;)
    Lots of truth in that Mr J

    but the correct way to address the constant whining was to answer it and to legitimise any moves with the populace at large.

    Nobody did

    Brexit was totally avoidable
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,115

    but the correct way to address the constant whining was to answer it and to legitimise any moves with the populace at large.

    Nobody did

    Brexit was totally avoidable

    Which also suggests you believe there's nothing inevitable or permanent about it. The 'core vote' for being outside the EU no matter what is relatively small.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Anyone know how far Thatcher was behind Callaghan in the best PM rating in 79 ?
    O/T there is a long article on the FT website about the VAT point you raised yesterday.

    It says that there has been little negotiation on this yet, the UK wants to stay in some parts of the system but not others and the EU are adamant that there will be no cherry picking. And if there is no deal by March then we're f*ck*d.

    So just like the rest of the Brexit process really.....

    There won't be a deal by March, most likely we have the transition period until the end of 2020 and proceed with talks for a Canada style FTA in the meantime
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Given Labour got 40% at the general election that means about a quarter of Labour voters do not think Corbyn is up to being PM.

    By contrast the 44% who think May is up to being PM are 2% more than the Tories got at the general election
    About a third of Labour voters think he's not up to the job, for Corbyn.

    His figures with Labour voters were 67% agree, 21% disagree (and presumably 12% unsure). he also received positive support from 5% of Tory voters and 11% of Lib Dems.

    May's scores with Tories were 81-14, with 21% of Labour voters thinking she has 'what it takes', and 36% of Lib Dems.

    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-04/pm-april-2018-tables.pdf
    Suggesting May has more scope to win over Labour and particularly LD voters than Corbyn has to win over either Tories or LDs
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    but the correct way to address the constant whining was to answer it and to legitimise any moves with the populace at large.

    Nobody did

    Brexit was totally avoidable

    Which also suggests you believe there's nothing inevitable or permanent about it. The 'core vote' for being outside the EU no matter what is relatively small.
    Later generations may see things differently and that's their right, but for now the country is largely Euroskeptical and unlikely to change soon. In my 20s I was a Euroenthusiast, in my 50s I'm not. The Europe I could relate to disappeared some time after Maastricht
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057

    Grayling has written a letter to MPs blaming the Thameslink timetable introduction debacle on the timetablers in that nationalised entity Network Rail.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/712161/sos-letter-to-mps-gtr.pdf

    The London Reconnections blog has suggested a musical:

    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2018/thameslink-the-musical-act-4-scene-3-the-grayling-letter/

    From what I've read there was no single point of failure, or any one organisation to blame; it was a right royal c*ck-up. If, as alleged, the timetable was only finalised a few days before the change, rather than the usual months, then the operator would have needed a miracle to avoid chaos. And that's not to say they didn't make mistakes as well.

    GTR, DfT, and NR all share the blame to varying degrees.

    Do you think my impression is correct?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,743
    edited May 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Anyone know how far Thatcher was behind Callaghan in the best PM rating in 79 ?
    O/T there is a long article on the FT website about the VAT point you raised yesterday.

    It says that there has been little negotiation on this yet, the UK wants to stay in some parts of the system but not others and the EU are adamant that there will be no cherry picking. And if there is no deal by March then we're f*ck*d.

    So just like the rest of the Brexit process really.....

    There won't be a deal by March, most likely we have the transition period until the end of 2020 and proceed with talks for a Canada style FTA in the meantime
    Transition is part of the Deal. If there is no Deal, there is no Transition.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    but the correct way to address the constant whining was to answer it and to legitimise any moves with the populace at large.

    Nobody did

    Brexit was totally avoidable

    Which also suggests you believe there's nothing inevitable or permanent about it. The 'core vote' for being outside the EU no matter what is relatively small.
    It is permanent as we would not be going back in under the same terms.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Anyone know how far Thatcher was behind Callaghan in the best PM rating in 79 ?
    O/T there is a long article on the FT website about the VAT point you raised yesterday.

    It says that there has been little negotiation on this yet, the UK wants to stay in some parts of the system but not others and the EU are adamant that there will be no cherry picking. And if there is no deal by March then we're f*ck*d.

    So just like the rest of the Brexit process really.....

    There won't be a deal by March, most likely we have the transition period until the end of 2020 and proceed with talks for a Canada style FTA in the meantime
    Tansition is part of the Deal. If there is no Deal, there is no Transition.
    Transition is part of the EU exit deal not part of any final FTA deal post transition which is separate
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    Sky News going round the clock on North South divide on life expectancy

    Basically life expectancy had converged by 1995, however from 1997 a gap began to open up

    Anything happen in1997 that might have caused that ?
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    edited May 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Anyone know how far Thatcher was behind Callaghan in the best PM rating in 79 ?
    O/T there is a long article on the FT website about the VAT point you raised yesterday.

    It says that there has been little negotiation on this yet, the UK wants to stay in some parts of the system but not others and the EU are adamant that there will be no cherry picking. And if there is no deal by March then we're f*ck*d.

    So just like the rest of the Brexit process really.....

    There won't be a deal by March, most likely we have the transition period until the end of 2020 and proceed with talks for a Canada style FTA in the meantime
    I find it very hard to believe we will be ready to exit by the end of 2020. Leaving aside the VAT issues - which are very complicated and barely understood - we will need new regulatory bodies for aviation, medicines, food safety etc etc etc, new immigration, agriculture and fisheries policies and, of course, new customs arrangements. All of these require primary legislation, lead-in times to set up the new bodies and new systems. And in most cases there is no evidence that the legislation is even being thought about, let alone drafted or presented to parliament. No real progress has been made on any of these issues since the referendum and the shambolic state of the government suggests that little will be made over the next couple of years either.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,115

    Anything happen in1997 that might have caused that ?

    Things got bitter?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Corbynistas showing how to do Red Wedge....

    ....without the Wedge.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554

    Sky News going round the clock on North South divide on life expectancy

    Basically life expectancy had converged by 1995, however from 1997 a gap began to open up

    Anything happen in1997 that might have caused that ?

    Tory Eurosceptics took charge of the Tory party.

    Euroscepticism ruins life expectancy.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195

    Sky News going round the clock on North South divide on life expectancy

    Basically life expectancy had converged by 1995, however from 1997 a gap began to open up

    Anything happen in1997 that might have caused that ?

    Tory Eurosceptics took charge of the Tory party.

    Euroscepticism ruins life expectancy.
    Hague backed remain, did he not?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1001739501113434112

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Anyone know how far Thatcher was behind Callaghan in the best PM rating in 79 ?
    O/T there is a long article on the FT website about the VAT point you raised yesterday.

    It says that there has been little negotiation on this yet, the UK wants to stay in some parts of the system but not others and the EU are adamant that there will be no cherry picking. And if there is no deal by March then we're f*ck*d.

    So just like the rest of the Brexit process really.....

    There won't be a deal by March, most likely we have the transition period until the end of 2020 and proceed with talks for a Canada style FTA in the meantime
    I find it very hard to believe we will be ready to exit by the end of 2020. Leaving aside the VAT issues - which are very complicated and barely understood - we will need new regulatory bodies for aviation, medicines, food safety etc etc etc, new immigration, agriculture and fisheries policies and, of course, new customs arrangements. All of these require primary legislation, lead-in times to set up the new bodies and new systems. And in most cases there is no evidence that the legislation is even being thought about, let alone drafted or presented to parliament. No real progress has been made on any of these issues since the referendum and the shambolic state of the government suggests that little will be made over the next couple of years either.
    The government is actually already entrancing in statute most EU regulations and directives, see the Data Protection Bill for example which has now been passed to implement GDPR post Brexit
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    Sky News going round the clock on North South divide on life expectancy

    Basically life expectancy had converged by 1995, however from 1997 a gap began to open up

    Anything happen in1997 that might have caused that ?

    Tory Eurosceptics took charge of the Tory party.

    Euroscepticism ruins life expectancy.
    the gap gets worse when Dave takes over
  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,436

    Grayling has written a letter to MPs blaming the Thameslink timetable introduction debacle on the timetablers in that nationalised entity Network Rail.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/712161/sos-letter-to-mps-gtr.pdf

    The London Reconnections blog has suggested a musical:

    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2018/thameslink-the-musical-act-4-scene-3-the-grayling-letter/

    From what I've read there was no single point of failure, or any one organisation to blame; it was a right royal c*ck-up. If, as alleged, the timetable was only finalised a few days before the change, rather than the usual months, then the operator would have needed a miracle to avoid chaos. And that's not to say they didn't make mistakes as well.

    GTR, DfT, and NR all share the blame to varying degrees.

    Do you think my impression is correct?
    I would agree with you.

    From the previous London Reconnections article the problems started with DfTs franchise agreement with GTR.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554
    tlg86 said:

    Sky News going round the clock on North South divide on life expectancy

    Basically life expectancy had converged by 1995, however from 1997 a gap began to open up

    Anything happen in1997 that might have caused that ?

    Tory Eurosceptics took charge of the Tory party.

    Euroscepticism ruins life expectancy.
    Hague backed remain, did he not?
    Eventually after he saw the error of his previously Eurosceptic views.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554

    Sky News going round the clock on North South divide on life expectancy

    Basically life expectancy had converged by 1995, however from 1997 a gap began to open up

    Anything happen in1997 that might have caused that ?

    Tory Eurosceptics took charge of the Tory party.

    Euroscepticism ruins life expectancy.
    the gap gets worse when Dave takes over
    All part of the deficit reduction plan.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mr. Jessop, from Nick Griffin's first comments to now, there's been a rising suspicion that the authorities either don't care or are very lax when it comes to tackling Muslim rape gangs (Rotherham, Rochdale, Oxford, Newcastle etc). So any suggestion of a media cover-up or authorities trying to prevent reporting has a ready made audience predisposed to at least give such a hearing, if not believe it right off the bat.

    The breach of the peace/terms of suspended sentence strangeness coupled with initial reporting restrictions only made that worse.

    [For the record, I do find the arrest terms and charge terms being seemingly different rather peculiar, but am persuaded by the chap (Nazir Ali?) who has performed successfully in prosecuting similar crimes and who was less than sympathetic to Robinson].

    Whether it be child abuse in Rotherham, electoral fraud in Tower Hamlets, or the exploitation of migrant labour in the garment industry in Leicester, our public authorities can seem keener to avoid accusations of racism than to uphold the rule of law.

    Then again, taking the easy way out isn’t new. I’m reading a book about the Easter Rising, and it’s telling that army officers who announced they would refuse to uphold Home Rule were let off, when by rights they should have been court-martialled, and if found guilty hanged.
    Those in the army who refused to do this knew they would get away with it because they had the support of the then Tory party. I know, that Tory party which was always going on about the rule of law and which, conveniently, forgot about this dishonourable part of their history, when criticising those - on the other side - who took up arms against the British state.
    TBF a lot of it was accidental

    As Carson once wrote, he never expected to be treading “the high road to treason and despair”
    One of the overriding impressions of the Easter Rising that comes out from accounts, notably Townshend's, is that no one really expected to be there, nor knew what to do once there, nor had a plan for anything before or after.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    TGOHF said:

    Another referendum ?

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-there-be-a-second-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-once-we-know-the-terms-the-government-has-negotiated/



    Poll by Opinium 16 May 2018

    Should be a second referendum 37%
    Should not be a second referendum 49%
    Don't Know 14%

    As Mr Glenn is fond of saying 'the trend is your friend' (or not, in this case):

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-there-be-a-second-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-once-we-know-the-terms-the-government-has-negotiated/?removed
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,376

    Grayling has written a letter to MPs blaming the Thameslink timetable introduction debacle on the timetablers in that nationalised entity Network Rail.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/712161/sos-letter-to-mps-gtr.pdf

    The London Reconnections blog has suggested a musical:

    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2018/thameslink-the-musical-act-4-scene-3-the-grayling-letter/

    From what I've read there was no single point of failure, or any one organisation to blame; it was a right royal c*ck-up. If, as alleged, the timetable was only finalised a few days before the change, rather than the usual months, then the operator would have needed a miracle to avoid chaos. And that's not to say they didn't make mistakes as well.

    GTR, DfT, and NR all share the blame to varying degrees.

    Do you think my impression is correct?
    I would say yes.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:
    Quite brave for Michael Gove's entourage to be leading on the question of lying in relation to the EU referendum.
  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,436
    There is a similar letter for Lancashire MPs

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/712160/sos-letter-to-mps-northern-rail.pdf

    In this case it is clearer the problems started with Network Rail's late delivery of the electrification between Bolton and Preston.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    Sky News going round the clock on North South divide on life expectancy

    Basically life expectancy had converged by 1995, however from 1997 a gap began to open up

    Anything happen in1997 that might have caused that ?

    Tory Eurosceptics took charge of the Tory party.

    Euroscepticism ruins life expectancy.
    the gap gets worse when Dave takes over
    All part of the deficit reduction plan.
    Hows that Northern Powerhouse working out ?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mr. Jessop, from Nick Griffin's first comments to now, there's been a rising suspicion that the authorities either don't care or are very lax when it comes to tackling Muslim rape gangs (Rotherham, Rochdale, Oxford, Newcastle etc). So any suggestion of a media cover-up or authorities trying to prevent reporting has a ready made audience predisposed to at least give such a hearing, if not believe it right off the bat.

    The breach of the peace/terms of suspended sentence strangeness coupled with initial reporting restrictions only made that worse.

    [For the record, I do find the arrest terms and charge terms being seemingly different rather peculiar, but am persuaded by the chap (Nazir Ali?) who has performed successfully in prosecuting similar crimes and who was less than sympathetic to Robinson].

    Whether it be child abuse in Rotherham, electoral fraud in Tower Hamlets, or the exploitation of migrant labour in the garment industry in Leicester, our public authorities can seem keener to avoid accusations of racism than to uphold the rule of law.

    Then again, taking the easy way out isn’t new. I’m reading a book about the Easter Rising, and it’s telling that army officers who announced they would refuse to uphold Home Rule were let off, when by rights they should have been court-martialled, and if found guilty hanged.
    Those in the army who refused to do this knew they would get away with it because they had the support of the then Tory party. I know, that Tory party which was always going on about the rule of law and which, conveniently, forgot about this dishonourable part of their history, when criticising those - on the other side - who took up arms against the British state.
    TBF a lot of it was accidental

    As Carson once wrote, he never expected to be treading “the high road to treason and despair”
    One of the overriding impressions of the Easter Rising that comes out from accounts, notably Townshend's, is that no one really expected to be there, nor knew what to do once there, nor had a plan for anything before or after.
    Like..... ?
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    HYUFD said:



    The government is actually already entrancing in statute most EU regulations and directives, see the Data Protection Bill for example which has now been passed to implement GDPR post Brexit

    GDPR is merely one small aspect of Brexit policy. Where are the proposals for new regulatory bodies? What proposals does the government have for dealing with cross-border VAT (which affects the price of pretty much any item imported from and EU country) after we come out? What lead-in time does it think these new bodies need? Does it propose to try to agree legislation with the opposition parties bearing in mind the lack of a Commons majority? And how is it that nearly 2 years after the referendum, and 10 months before Brexit day, none of these questions have been tackled?

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    edited May 2018
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mr. Jessop, from Nick Griffin's first comments to now, there's been a rising suspicion that the authorities either don't care or are very lax when it comes to tackling Muslim rape gangs (Rotherham, Rochdale, Oxford, Newcastle etc). So any suggestion of a media cover-up or authorities trying to prevent reporting has a ready made audience predisposed to at least give such a hearing, if not believe it right off the bat.

    The breach of the peace/terms of suspended sentence strangeness coupled with initial reporting restrictions only made that worse.

    [For the record, I do find the on].

    Whether it be child abuse iester, our public authorities can seem keener to avoid accusations of racism than to uphold the rule of law.

    Then again, taking the easy way out isn’t new. I’m reading a book about the Easter Rising, and it’s telling that army officers who announced they would refuse to uphold Home Rule were let off, when by rights they should have been court-martialled, and if found guilty hanged.
    Those in the army who refused to do this knew they would get away with it because they had the support of the then Tory party. I know, that Tory party which was always going on about the rule of law and which, conveniently, forgot about this dishonourable part of their history, when criticising those - on the other side - who took up arms against the British state.
    TBF a lot of it was accidental

    As Carson once wrote, he never expected to be treading “the high road to treason and despair”
    One of the overriding impressions of the Easter Rising that comes out from accounts, notably Townshend's, is that no one really expected to be there, nor knew what to do once there, nor had a plan for anything before or after.
    Like..... ?
    Well they first of all set up in the GPO which strategically was arguably the worst of all choices (immobile, vulnerable, etc), then occupied other buildings also - those in the Jacob's factory I don't think got to fire a shot in anger, and then strategically they didn't bring a plan together and were torn between guerilla fighting ("hedge fighting") and other forms of resistance. The much hoped for regions rising up and marching to Dublin never occurred and hence the Rising was and was able to be contained.

    When the British finally got their act together, they had no flexibility in their operations and just stayed where they were and eventually of course were overwhelmed.

    Far "better" tactics (such as the use of fighting columns) were developed by the time of the war of independence and then the civil war.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking pretty grim for Boris Johnson. The public seem to have concluded fairly definitively that he's not up to the top job:

    That's a deeply, deeply worrying graph.

    Apparently one voter in six believes BoJo is up to being PM.

    Who are these people (apart from HYUFD, obviously) and what are they smoking?
    If this is correct, there are 2.7 m voters who think that Gavin Williamson is up to the job - although that's probably similar to the number who believe in vampires.
    31% of the public think the Jezza is up to the job. Words fail me...
    Anyone know how far Thatcher was behind Callaghan in the best PM rating in 79 ?
    O/T there is a long article on the FT website about the VAT point you raised yesterday.

    It says that there has been little negotiation on this yet, the UK wants to stay in some parts of the system but not others and the EU are adamant that there will be no cherry picking. And if there is no deal by March then we're f*ck*d.

    So just like the rest of the Brexit process really.....

    There won't be a deal by March, most likely we have the transition period until the end of 2020 and proceed with talks for a Canada style FTA in the meantime
    I find it very hard to believe we will be ready to exit by the end of 2020. Leaving aside the VAT issues - which are very complicated and barely understood - we will need new regulatory bodies for aviation, medicines, food safety etc etc etc, new immigration, agriculture and fisheries policies and, of course, new customs arrangements. All of these require primary legislation, lead-in times to set up the new bodies and new systems. And in most cases there is no evidence that the legislation is even being thought about, let alone drafted or presented to parliament. No real progress has been made on any of these issues since the referendum and the shambolic state of the government suggests that little will be made over the next couple of years either.
    You can't blame the civil servants for not having done the work - most of this work needs a settled view on the desired destination, which the government cannot provide - and indeed needs to avoid even trying to decide, for fear of the political consequences mostly internal to the Tory party. Whilst May tries to keep the tent aloft above Tories who range from Remain as far as is possible through join nothing and sign nothing that has the word Europe in it, it is impossible for the administration to do any meaningful work by way of preparation.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    That Andrew O'Hagan article on Grenfell in the LRB is very lengthy and detailed but well worth a read.

    - "The firefighting operation at Grenfell was a huge and dramatic failure, though nobody wanted to say so. The national government’s role was cynical and opportunistic from the start, though everyone missed this in the rush to name local culprits. And journalism, hour by hour and day by day, showed by its feasting on half-baked items that it had lost the power to treat reality fairly. You saw it everywhere. Channel 4 News, the Guardian, the Daily Mail, Sky News, the New York Times: from the middle of that night, they began to turn the fire into the story they wanted it to be. Reality wasn’t good enough, the tragedy wasn’t bad enough, it had to be augmented, it had to be blown up, facts couldn’t be gleaned quickly enough, and stories went without investigation, research, tact or even checking. In a world of perpetual commentary in which everyone and anyone is allowed their own facts, accusation stands as evidence."

    The council comes out of it better than you might expect, the government and the press much worse and Sajid Javid comes out of it looking not good at all.

    That last sentence describes more than just Grenfell.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Bra charts proving conclusively that Labour won General Election 2017!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857

    I’m not sure your bra charts provide sufficient support
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:



    The government is actually already entrancing in statute most EU regulations and directives, see the Data Protection Bill for example which has now been passed to implement GDPR post Brexit

    GDPR is merely one small aspect of Brexit policy. Where are the proposals for new regulatory bodies? What proposals does the government have for dealing with cross-border VAT (which affects the price of pretty much any item imported from and EU country) after we come out? What lead-in time does it think these new bodies need? Does it propose to try to agree legislation with the opposition parties bearing in mind the lack of a Commons majority? And how is it that nearly 2 years after the referendum, and 10 months before Brexit day, none of these questions have been tackled?

    Fewer than 10 new regulatory bodies need to be set up before Brexit but in any case in the transition period we effectively remain in the single market and customs union anyway

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-regulators-idUKKBN1A40PH

    However the government also has to navigate the likes of Rees Mogg and co who want to go straight to hard Brexit next March with no transition period, no regulatory alignment and no customs partnership and no freedom of movement, even if that means going immediately to WTO terms
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    Cyclefree said:

    That Andrew O'Hagan article on Grenfell in the LRB is very lengthy and detailed but well worth a read.

    - "The firefighting operation at Grenfell was a huge and dramatic failure, though nobody wanted to say so. The national government’s role was cynical and opportunistic from the start, though everyone missed this in the rush to name local culprits. And journalism, hour by hour and day by day, showed by its feasting on half-baked items that it had lost the power to treat reality fairly. You saw it everywhere. Channel 4 News, the Guardian, the Daily Mail, Sky News, the New York Times: from the middle of that night, they began to turn the fire into the story they wanted it to be. Reality wasn’t good enough, the tragedy wasn’t bad enough, it had to be augmented, it had to be blown up, facts couldn’t be gleaned quickly enough, and stories went without investigation, research, tact or even checking. In a world of perpetual commentary in which everyone and anyone is allowed their own facts, accusation stands as evidence."

    The council comes out of it better than you might expect, the government and the press much worse and Sajid Javid comes out of it looking not good at all.

    That last sentence describes more than just Grenfell.

    Peter Herbert's first comment, responding to O'Hagan's interview this morning, was "....but these were disadvantaged people..."
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325
    Cyclefree said:

    That Andrew O'Hagan article on Grenfell in the LRB is very lengthy and detailed but well worth a read.

    - "The firefighting operation at Grenfell was a huge and dramatic failure, though nobody wanted to say so. The national government’s role was cynical and opportunistic from the start, though everyone missed this in the rush to name local culprits. And journalism, hour by hour and day by day, showed by its feasting on half-baked items that it had lost the power to treat reality fairly. You saw it everywhere. Channel 4 News, the Guardian, the Daily Mail, Sky News, the New York Times: from the middle of that night, they began to turn the fire into the story they wanted it to be. Reality wasn’t good enough, the tragedy wasn’t bad enough, it had to be augmented, it had to be blown up, facts couldn’t be gleaned quickly enough, and stories went without investigation, research, tact or even checking. In a world of perpetual commentary in which everyone and anyone is allowed their own facts, accusation stands as evidence."

    The council comes out of it better than you might expect, the government and the press much worse and Sajid Javid comes out of it looking not good at all.

    That last sentence describes more than just Grenfell.

    Interesting. I understand that the council is confident (or at least hopeful) that it will emerge from the inquiry with less opprobrium than was heaped upon it by the media.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    @IanB2

    Like..... ?

    Well let's assume you mean Brexit?

    Well yes sort of. But the Easter Risers' cause won in the end. They did change the terms of the debate, and 6 years later there was an Irish Free State, with, as Collins put it "the freedom to get freedom" (I paraphrase). 27 years after that there was a Republic. Now not the 32 counties they wanted, sure, but light years away from what any rational Irish nationalist would've believed in 1912 or 1916.

    I've got a lot of time for Michael Collins. I think the Brexiteers would do well to learn there, because he was a lot more than half right. Once you are "out" time is on your side. You just have to stand still and watch the other lot drift off.
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    edited May 2018
    IanB2 said:

    <

    You can't blame the civil servants for not having done the work - most of this work needs a settled view on the desired destination, which the government cannot provide - and indeed needs to avoid even trying to decide, for fear of the political consequences mostly internal to the Tory party. Whilst May tries to keep the tent aloft above Tories who range from Remain as far as is possible through join nothing and sign nothing that has the word Europe in it, it is impossible for the administration to do any meaningful work by way of preparation.

    Precisely.

    The interests of the country are being sacrificed so that the facade of Tory Party unity can be maintained. This will not end well for either.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325
    edited May 2018
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mr. Jessop, from Nick Griffin's first comments to (snip)

    The breach of the peace/terms of suspended sentence strangeness coupled with initial reporting restrictions only made that worse.

    [For the record, I do find the on].

    Whether it be child abuse iester, our public authorities can seem keener to avoid accusations of racism than to uphold the rule of law.

    Then again, taking the easy way out isn’t new. I’m reading a book about the Easter Rising, and it’s telling that army officers who announced they would refuse to uphold Home Rule were let off, when by rights they should have been court-martialled, and if found guilty hanged.
    Those in the army who refused to do this knew they would get away with it because they had the support of the then Tory party. I know, that Tory party which was always going on about the rule of law and which, conveniently, forgot about this dishonourable part of their history, when criticising those - on the other side - who took up arms against the British state.
    TBF a lot of it was accidental

    As Carson once wrote, he never expected to be treading “the high road to treason and despair”
    One of the overriding impressions of the Easter Rising that comes out from accounts, notably Townshend's, is that no one really expected to be there, nor knew what to do once there, nor had a plan for anything before or after.
    Like..... ?
    Well they first of all set up in the GPO which strategically was arguably the worst of all choices (immobile, vulnerable, etc), then occupied other buildings also - those in the Jacob's factory I don't think got to fire a shot in anger, and then strategically they didn't bring a plan together and were torn between guerilla fighting ("hedge fighting") and other forms of resistance. The much hoped for regions rising up and marching to Dublin never occurred and hence the Rising was and was able to be contained.

    When the British finally got their act together, they had no flexibility in their operations and just stayed where they were and eventually of course were overwhelmed.

    Far "better" tactics (such as the use of fighting columns) were developed by the time of the war of independence and then the civil war.
    Thanks, as a history buff it is interesting to read you fuller comments. Although to be honest I was attempting, and clearly failing, simply to semi-humorously posit the question whether any more recent event might exhibit similar characteristics to those spelled out in your last paragraph....
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    edited May 2018
    welshowl said:


    Well let's assume you mean Brexit?

    Well yes sort of. But the Easter Risers' cause won in the end. They did change the terms of the debate, and 6 years later there was an Irish Free State, with, as Collins put it "the freedom to get freedom" (I paraphrase). 27 years after that there was a Republic. Now not the 32 counties they wanted, sure, but light years away from what any rational Irish nationalist would've believed in 1912 or 1916.

    I've got a lot of time for Michael Collins. I think the Brexiteers would do well to learn there, because he was a lot more than half right. Once you are "out" time is on your side. You just have to stand still and watch the other lot drift off.

    Yes he certainly understood not so much the roll of history (although perhaps that informed his thinking), but perhaps that as you are offered concessions, you must take them because the future is unknown but at least you have what you have.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,115
    welshowl said:

    I've got a lot of time for Michael Collins. I think the Brexiteers would do well to learn there, because he was a lot more than half right. Once you are "out" time is on your side. You just have to stand still and watch the other lot drift off.

    There are some big differences though. The EU is not a sovereign state that we are seceding from, and the world as a whole is becoming more integrated so even standing still may not yield the separation you want.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    edited May 2018
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mr. Jessop, from Nick Griffin's first comments to (snip)

    The breach of the peace/terms of suspended sentence strangeness coupled with initial reporting restrictions only made that worse.

    [For the record, I do find the on].

    Whether it be child abuse iester, our public authorities can seem keener to avoid accusations of racism than to uphold the rule of law.

    Then again, taking the easynd guilty hanged.
    Those in the army who refused to do this knew they would get away with it because they had the support of the then Tory party. I know, that Tory party which was always going on about the rule of law and which, conveniently, forgot about this dishonourable part of their history, when criticising those - on the other side - who took up arms against the British state.
    TBF a lot of it was accidental

    As Carson once wrote, he never expected to be treading “the high road to treason and despair”
    One of the overriding impressions of the Easter Rising that comes out from accounts, notably Townshend's, is that no one really expected to be there, nor knew what to do once there, nor had a plan for anything before or after.
    Like..... ?
    Well they first of all set up in the GPO which strategically was arguably the worst of all choices (immobile, vulnerable, etc), then occupied other buildings also - those in the Jacob's factory I don't think got to fire a shot in anger, and then strategically they didn't bring a plan together and were torn between guerilla fighting ("hedge fighting") and other forms of resistance. The much hoped for regions rising up and marching to Dublin never occurred and hence the Rising was and was able to be contained.

    When the British finally got their act together, they had no flexibility in their operations and just stayed where they were and eventually of course were overwhelmed.

    Far "better" tactics (such as the use of fighting columns) were developed by the time of the war of independence and then the civil war.
    Thanks, as a history buff it is interesting to read you fuller comments. Although to be honest I was attempting, and clearly failing, simply to semi-humorously posit the question whether any more recent event might exhibit similar characteristics to those spelled out in your last paragraph....
    ah. ah ha! haha!

    Sorry! Glad to be of v minor interest!

    Edit: and your comment was EXTREMELY pertinent wrt Br*x*t!!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,115
    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:


    Well let's assume you mean Brexit?

    Well yes sort of. But the Easter Risers' cause won in the end. They did change the terms of the debate, and 6 years later there was an Irish Free State, with, as Collins put it "the freedom to get freedom" (I paraphrase). 27 years after that there was a Republic. Now not the 32 counties they wanted, sure, but light years away from what any rational Irish nationalist would've believed in 1912 or 1916.

    I've got a lot of time for Michael Collins. I think the Brexiteers would do well to learn there, because he was a lot more than half right. Once you are "out" time is on your side. You just have to stand still and watch the other lot drift off.

    Yes he certainly understood not so much the roll of history (although perhaps that informed his thinking), but perhaps that as you are offered concessions, you must take them because the future is unknown but at least you have what you have.
    When you put it like that, Michael Collins would have gone out to bat for Dave's deal. ;)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100

    IanB2 said:

    <

    You can't blame the civil servants for not having done the work - most of this work needs a settled view on the desired destination, which the government cannot provide - and indeed needs to avoid even trying to decide, for fear of the political consequences mostly internal to the Tory party. Whilst May tries to keep the tent aloft above Tories who range from Remain as far as is possible through join nothing and sign nothing that has the word Europe in it, it is impossible for the administration to do any meaningful work by way of preparation.

    Precisely.

    The interests of the country are being sacrificed so that the facade of Tory Party unity can be maintained. This will not end well for either.
    Labour is just as divided on Brexit, Hoey and Umunna are light years apart in their views for example, the fact is it is not going to be easy to carry any deal through Parliament whoever is PM that appeased diehard Remainers and staunch hard Brexiteers that does not mean preparations are not going on.

    As for the 'interests of the country' you would do well to remember 52% of voters in the country voted Leave which is why we have Brexit in the first place!
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389

    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:


    Well let's assume you mean Brexit?

    Well yes sort of. But the Easter Risers' cause won in the end. They did change the terms of the debate, and 6 years later there was an Irish Free State, with, as Collins put it "the freedom to get freedom" (I paraphrase). 27 years after that there was a Republic. Now not the 32 counties they wanted, sure, but light years away from what any rational Irish nationalist would've believed in 1912 or 1916.

    I've got a lot of time for Michael Collins. I think the Brexiteers would do well to learn there, because he was a lot more than half right. Once you are "out" time is on your side. You just have to stand still and watch the other lot drift off.

    Yes he certainly understood not so much the roll of history (although perhaps that informed his thinking), but perhaps that as you are offered concessions, you must take them because the future is unknown but at least you have what you have.
    When you put it like that, Michael Collins would have gone out to bat for Dave's deal. ;)
    Well as a pragmatist in that particular incident I think he would absolutely have done so although we are now stretching the analogy beyond recognition!

    :wink:
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,868
    Five Star and Lega are in talk again to form a new government, so the crisis Brexiters are panting for may be averted yet.

    Let’s hope. We (the U.K.) would be unlikely to escape contagion if Italy were to have a sovereign debt crisis.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:


    Well let's assume you mean Brexit?

    Well yes sort of. But the Easter Risers' cause won in the end. They did change the terms of the debate, and 6 years later there was an Irish Free State, with, as Collins put it "the freedom to get freedom" (I paraphrase). 27 years after that there was a Republic. Now not the 32 counties they wanted, sure, but light years away from what any rational Irish nationalist would've believed in 1912 or 1916.

    I've got a lot of time for Michael Collins. I think the Brexiteers would do well to learn there, because he was a lot more than half right. Once you are "out" time is on your side. You just have to stand still and watch the other lot drift off.

    Yes he certainly understood not so much the roll of history (although perhaps that informed his thinking), but perhaps that as you are offered concessions, you must take them because the future is unknown but at least you have what you have.
    Exactly. You can then work on again from there, and as the other lot evolve and pass laws, through the passage of time the separation will tend to increase.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:


    Well let's assume you mean Brexit?

    Well yes sort of. But the Easter Risers' cause won in the end. They did change the terms of the debate, and 6 years later there was an Irish Free State, with, as Collins put it "the freedom to get freedom" (I paraphrase). 27 years after that there was a Republic. Now not the 32 counties they wanted, sure, but light years away from what any rational Irish nationalist would've believed in 1912 or 1916.

    I've got a lot of time for Michael Collins. I think the Brexiteers would do well to learn there, because he was a lot more than half right. Once you are "out" time is on your side. You just have to stand still and watch the other lot drift off.

    Yes he certainly understood not so much the roll of history (although perhaps that informed his thinking), but perhaps that as you are offered concessions, you must take them because the future is unknown but at least you have what you have.
    When you put it like that, Michael Collins would have gone out to bat for Dave's deal. ;)
    With his hurley maybe rather than his bat?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100

    Five Star and Lega are in talk again to form a new government, so the crisis Brexiters are panting for may be averted yet.

    Let’s hope. We (the U.K.) would be unlikely to escape contagion if Italy were to have a sovereign debt crisis.

    And what is that government going to propose? An end to austerity, a flat tax and mass deportations of African migrants. A clash of some form with the EU will be hard to avoid
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mr. Jessop, from Nick Griffin's first comments to now, there's been a rising suspicion that the authorities either don't care or are very lax when it comes to tackling Muslim rape gangs (Rotherham, Rochdale, Oxford, Newcastle etc). So any suggestion of a media cover-up or authorities trying to prevent reporting has a ready made audience predisposed to at least give such a hearing, if not believe it right off the bat.

    The breach of the peace/terms of suspended sentence strangeness coupled with initial reporting restrictions only made that worse.

    [For the record, I do find the arrest terms and charge terms being seemingly different rather peculiar, but am persuaded by the chap (Nazir Ali?) who has performed successfully in prosecuting similar crimes and who was less than sympathetic to Robinson].

    Whether it be child abuse in Rotherham, electoral fraud in Tower Hamlets, or the exploitation of migrant labour in the garment industry in Leicester, our public authorities can seem keener to avoid accusations of racism than to uphold the rule of law.

    Then again, taking the easy way out isn’t new. I’m reading a book about the Easter Rising, and it’s telling that army officers who announced they would refuse to uphold Home Rule were let off, when by rights they should have been court-martialled, and if found guilty hanged.
    Those in the army who refused to do this knew they would get away with it because they had the support of the then Tory party. I know, that Tory party which was always going on about the rule of law and which, conveniently, forgot about this dishonourable part of their history, when criticising those - on the other side - who took up arms against the British state.
    TBF a lot of it was accidental

    As Carson once wrote, he never expected to be treading “the high road to treason and despair”
    One of the overriding impressions of the Easter Rising that comes out from accounts, notably Townshend's, is that no one really expected to be there, nor knew what to do once there, nor had a plan for anything before or after.
    Carson’s argument was that loyalty to the Crown-ex-Parliament trumps loyalty to the Crown-in-Parliament

    He was a lawyer...
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    edited May 2018
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That Andrew O'Hagan article on Grenfell in the LRB is very lengthy and detailed but well worth a read.

    - "The firefighting operation at Grenfell was a huge and dramatic failure, though nobody wanted to say so. The national government’s role was cynical and opportunistic from the start, though everyone missed this in the rush to name local culprits. And journalism, hour by hour and day by day, showed by its feasting on half-baked items that it had lost the power to treat reality fairly. You saw it everywhere. Channel 4 News, the Guardian, the Daily Mail, Sky News, the New York Times: from the middle of that night, they began to turn the fire into the story they wanted it to be. Reality wasn’t good enough, the tragedy wasn’t bad enough, it had to be augmented, it had to be blown up, facts couldn’t be gleaned quickly enough, and stories went without investigation, research, tact or even checking. In a world of perpetual commentary in which everyone and anyone is allowed their own facts, accusation stands as evidence."

    The council comes out of it better than you might expect, the government and the press much worse and Sajid Javid comes out of it looking not good at all.

    That last sentence describes more than just Grenfell.

    Peter Herbert's first comment, responding to O'Hagan's interview this morning, was "....but these were disadvantaged people..."
    And one of the things that comes out from this was that many weren't. Some of the families rather resent the way they have been presented as poor people stuffed into some horrible flat. O'Hagan is pretty scathing about the people - from politicians to journalists to activists to celebrities - who used this tragedy for their own purposes. One of the best things about the article is that he describes the lives and backgrounds of those he interviewed, including councillors and others, and shows how all of them were much more rounded, interesting and well-meaning people, not the evil Tory toffs and poor put upon victims that we've been fed with.

    What is reasonably clear is that the policy of privatising building control and fire tests was disastrous because the clients then became those trying to get some cladding or other material declared safe rather than the people who lived in the buildings. And if an inspector said no he risked not getting work from that client in future. In other words, competition drove standards down rather than up.

    Also much of the traducing of the council meant that very many of the council employees who worked incredibly hard to help were treated as villains, most unfairly. The section on the fire service is also interesting. They don't come out tremendously well though it would be interesting to have @TwistedFireStopper's take on what O'Hagan writes.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,376
    edited May 2018

    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:


    Well let's assume you mean Brexit?

    Well yes sort of. But the Easter Risers' cause won in the end. They did change the terms of the debate, and 6 years later there was an Irish Free State, with, as Collins put it "the freedom to get freedom" (I paraphrase). 27 years after that there was a Republic. Now not the 32 counties they wanted, sure, but light years away from what any rational Irish nationalist would've believed in 1912 or 1916.

    I've got a lot of time for Michael Collins. I think the Brexiteers would do well to learn there, because he was a lot more than half right. Once you are "out" time is on your side. You just have to stand still and watch the other lot drift off.

    Yes he certainly understood not so much the roll of history (although perhaps that informed his thinking), but perhaps that as you are offered concessions, you must take them because the future is unknown but at least you have what you have.
    When you put it like that, Michael Collins would have gone out to bat for Dave's deal. ;)
    I am certain that Michael Collins must have been seriously pissed at having to stay inside the cramped Command Module, while Aldrin and Armstrong took all the glory on the Lunar surface.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Five Star and Lega are in talk again to form a new government, so the crisis Brexiters are panting for may be averted yet.

    Let’s hope. We (the U.K.) would be unlikely to escape contagion if Italy were to have a sovereign debt crisis.

    If the latter were to occur then I think the UK would probably fare pretty well. Most banks and funds have sold up their periphery positions. Most long ago and few have got back in. The main contagion would be economic rather than monetary as Italy falling out of the Eurozone would undoubtedly trigger a recession to end all recessions in the EU. Unfortunately our fiscal position is still poor and we have no monetary ammunition left for another crisis.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    edited May 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    That Andrew O'Hagan article on Grenfell in the LRB is very lengthy and detailed but well worth a read.

    - "The firefighting operation at Grenfell was a huge and dramatic failure, though nobody wanted to say so. The national government’s role was cynical and opportunistic from the start, though everyone missed this in the rush to name local culprits. And journalism, hour by hour and day by day, showed by its feasting on half-baked items that it had lost the power to treat reality fairly. You saw it everywhere. Channel 4 News, the Guardian, the Daily Mail, Sky News, the New York Times: from the middle of that night, they began to turn the fire into the story they wanted it to be. Reality wasn’t good enough, the tragedy wasn’t bad enough, it had to be augmented, it had to be blown up, facts couldn’t be gleaned quickly enough, and stories went without investigation, research, tact or even checking. In a world of perpetual commentary in which everyone and anyone is allowed their own facts, accusation stands as evidence."

    The council comes out of it better than you might expect, the government and the press much worse and Sajid Javid comes out of it looking not good at all.

    That last sentence describes more than just Grenfell.

    That’s very well said by O’Hagan. I’ve never seen a disaster jumped on by so many people with an agenda, and the media letting them all run with it and adding their own spin to the tragic events.

    Even the way the enquiry is happening is putting emotions over facts, there needs to be an independent factual investigation by the HSE (or another government body, along the lines of transport accident investigations) then the public enquiry and inquests into the deaths. If it’s not done properly and impartially, we risk the lessons not being learned and similar tragedies happening again in the future.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited May 2018
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1001797006455705600

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 43 (=)
    LAB 40 (=)
    LD 8 (=)
    UKIP 3 (=)
    GRN 2 (-1)

    Fieldwork 25th-29th May (Changes on 11th-13th) N=2,002 Writeup @AndrewSparrow

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/30/brexit-public-health-at-risk-if-uk-loses-access-to-eu-food-safety-databases-say-council-chiefs-politics-live?page=with:block-5b0e5e3de4b0033069060948#block-5b0e5e3de4b0033069060948
    Strong 'n Stable Tory share!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,290
    edited May 2018
    I don't know how much Jezfest is going down like a bucket of cold sick has anything to do with waning support for wanting to sing seven nation army like a sheep or the fact that the line-up is utter shit.

    There are loads of festivals across the summer in the UK and this has no artists that da kidz will be rushing to want to see. The Magic Numbers haven't had a hit record for over 10 years, they are about as popular with the yuff as Eddie Izzard.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Cyclefree said:

    That Andrew O'Hagan article on Grenfell in the LRB is very lengthy and detailed but well worth a read.

    - "The firefighting operation at Grenfell was a huge and dramatic failure, though nobody wanted to say so. The national government’s role was cynical and opportunistic from the start, though everyone missed this in the rush to name local culprits. And journalism, hour by hour and day by day, showed by its feasting on half-baked items that it had lost the power to treat reality fairly. You saw it everywhere. Channel 4 News, the Guardian, the Daily Mail, Sky News, the New York Times: from the middle of that night, they began to turn the fire into the story they wanted it to be. Reality wasn’t good enough, the tragedy wasn’t bad enough, it had to be augmented, it had to be blown up, facts couldn’t be gleaned quickly enough, and stories went without investigation, research, tact or even checking. In a world of perpetual commentary in which everyone and anyone is allowed their own facts, accusation stands as evidence."

    The council comes out of it better than you might expect, the government and the press much worse and Sajid Javid comes out of it looking not good at all.

    That last sentence describes more than just Grenfell.

    Agree - its a very long read but worth persevering. Curiously the Tory Councillor who called up the leader of the council telling him he'd have to resign was a near contemporary of May's, was President of the Union and was immediately succeeded by Alan Duncan, Philip May then Michael Crick. The President the year before had been Damian Green.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    <

    You can't blame the civil servants for not having done the work - most of this work needs a settled view on the desired destination, which the government cannot provide - and indeed needs to avoid even trying to decide, for fear of the political consequences mostly internal to the Tory party. Whilst May tries to keep the tent aloft above Tories who range from Remain as far as is possible through join nothing and sign nothing that has the word Europe in it, it is impossible for the administration to do any meaningful work by way of preparation.

    Precisely.

    The interests of the country are being sacrificed so that the facade of Tory Party unity can be maintained. This will not end well for either.
    Labour is just as divided on Brexit, Hoey and Umunna are light years apart in their views for example, the fact is it is not going to be easy to carry any deal through Parliament whoever is PM that appeased diehard Remainers and staunch hard Brexiteers that does not mean preparations are not going on.

    As for the 'interests of the country' you would do well to remember 52% of voters in the country voted Leave which is why we have Brexit in the first place!
    But how many people voted for a totally destructive Brexit, which is Mrs May`s interpretation of the result?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    <

    You can't blame the civil servants for not having done the work - most of this work needs a settled view on the desired destination, which the government cannot provide - and indeed needs to avoid even trying to decide, for fear of the political consequences mostly internal to the Tory party. Whilst May tries to keep the tent aloft above Tories who range from Remain as far as is possible through join nothing and sign nothing that has the word Europe in it, it is impossible for the administration to do any meaningful work by way of preparation.

    Precisely.

    The interests of the country are being sacrificed so that the facade of Tory Party unity can be maintained. This will not end well for either.
    Labour is just as divided on Brexit, Hoey and Umunna are light years apart in their views for example, the fact is it is not going to be easy to carry any deal through Parliament whoever is PM that appeased diehard Remainers and staunch hard Brexiteers that does not mean preparations are not going on.

    As for the 'interests of the country' you would do well to remember 52% of voters in the country voted Leave which is why we have Brexit in the first place!
    But how many people voted for a totally destructive Brexit, which is Mrs May`s interpretation of the result?
    Except that is not Mrs May's interpretation of the result which would be following the Mogg line of straight to WTO terms and no regulatory alignment or customs partnership or transition period and future FTA at all.

    Just because May is not following the diehard Remainer agenda of staying fully in the single market and customs union and leaving free movement in place does not mean she is pushing for totally destructive hard Brexit either!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,290
    Forget pineapple on pizza being the last days of Rome....there are currently over 100k people (and have been for the past 24hrs) watching a video stream of a bobblehead standing infront of a tv screen with a picture saying "please stand by".
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    <

    You can't blame the civil servants for not having done the work - most of this work needs a settled view on the desired destination, which the government cannot provide - and indeed needs to avoid even trying to decide, for fear of the political consequences mostly internal to the Tory party. Whilst May tries to keep the tent aloft above Tories who range from Remain as far as is possible through join nothing and sign nothing that has the word Europe in it, it is impossible for the administration to do any meaningful work by way of preparation.

    Precisely.

    The interests of the country are being sacrificed so that the facade of Tory Party unity can be maintained. This will not end well for either.
    Labour is just as divided on Brexit, Hoey and Umunna are light years apart in their views for example, the fact is it is not going to be easy to carry any deal through Parliament whoever is PM that appeased diehard Remainers and staunch hard Brexiteers that does not mean preparations are not going on.
    As for the 'interests of the country' you would do well to remember 52% of voters in the country voted Leave which is why we have Brexit in the first place!
    But how many people voted for a totally destructive Brexit, which is Mrs May`s interpretation of the result?
    Except that is not Mrs May's interpretation of the result which would be following the Mogg line of straight to WTO terms and no regulatory alignment or customs partnership or transition period and future FTA at all.

    Just because May is not following the diehard Remainer agenda of staying fully in the single market and customs union and leaving free movement in place does not mean she is pushing for totally destructive hard Brexit either!
    I fear you are still blinded by the "We can have our cake and eat it" school of Tory thinking. A totally destructive Brexit is what she is heading for - ably guided there by the very serious, dedicated and hard-working Boris Johnson, of course.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Forget pineapple on pizza being the last days of Rome....there are currently over 100k people (and have been for the past 24hrs) watching a video stream of a bobblehead standing infront of a tv screen with a picture saying "please stand by".

    Are you one of them?!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,290
    MaxPB said:

    Forget pineapple on pizza being the last days of Rome....there are currently over 100k people (and have been for the past 24hrs) watching a video stream of a bobblehead standing infront of a tv screen with a picture saying "please stand by".

    Are you one of them?!
    No....
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    <

    You can't blame the civil servants for not having done the work - most of this work needs a settled view on the desired destination, which the government cannot provide - and indeed needs to avoid even trying to decide, for fear of the political consequences mostly internal to the Tory party. Whilst May tries to keep the tent aloft above Tories who range from Remain as far as is possible through join nothing and sign nothing that has the word Europe in it, it is impossible for the administration to do any meaningful work by way of preparation.

    Precisely.

    The interests of the country are being sacrificed so that the facade of Tory Party unity can be maintained. This will not end well for either.
    Labour is just as divided on Brexit, Hoey and Umunna are light years apart in their views for example, the fact is it is not going to be easy to carry any deal through Parliament whoever is PM that appeased diehard Remainers and staunch hard Brexiteers that does not mean preparations are not going on.
    As for the 'interests of the country' you would do well to remember 52% of voters in the country voted Leave which is why we have Brexit in the first place!
    But how many people voted for a totally destructive Brexit, which is Mrs May`s interpretation of the result?
    Except that is not Mrs May's interpretation of the result which would be following the Mogg line of straight to WTO terms and no regulatory alignment or customs partnership or transition period and future FTA at all.

    Just because May is not following the diehard Remainer agenda of staying fully in the single market and customs union and leaving free movement in place does not mean she is pushing for totally destructive hard Brexit either!
    I fear you are still blinded by the "We can have our cake and eat it" school of Tory thinking. A totally destructive Brexit is what she is heading for - ably guided there by the very serious, dedicated and hard-working Boris Johnson, of course.
    I wonder, is there any form of Brexit that isn't totally destructive? One in which the UK actually leaves.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,290
    edited May 2018
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/joepike/status/1001793245821788160

    Can't be going too far from London....might get a nosebleed.

    The BBC found that nearly 60% of managers refused to move from London to MediaCity, while just 31 of 144 agreed to relocate to operations in Birmingham.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/apr/01/channel-4-move-location-location-location-manchester-leeds-birmingham
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited May 2018
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    <

    You can't blame the civil servants for not having done the work - most of this work needs a settled view on the desired destination, which the government cannot provide - and indeed needs to avoid even trying to decide, for fear of the political consequences mostly internal to the Tory party. Whilst May tries to keep the tent aloft above Tories who range from Remain as far as is possible through join nothing and sign nothing that has the word Europe in it, it is impossible for the administration to do any meaningful work by way of preparation.

    Precisely.

    The interests of the country are being sacrificed so that the facade of Tory Party unity can be maintained. This will not end well for either.
    Labour is just as divided on Brexit, Hoey and Umunna are light years apart in their views for example, the fact is it is not going to be easy to carry any deal through Parliament whoever is PM that appeased diehard Remainers and staunch hard Brexiteers that does not mean preparations are not going on.
    As for the 'interests of the country' you would do well to remember 52% of voters in the country voted Leave which is why we have Brexit in the first place!
    But how many people voted for a totally destructive Brexit, which is Mrs May`s interpretation of the result?
    Except that is not Mrs May's interpretation of the result which would be following the Mogg line of straight to WTO terms and no regulatory alignment or customs partnership or transition period and future FTA at all.

    Just because May is not following the diehard Remainer agenda of staying fully in the single market and customs union and leaving free movement in place does not mean she is pushing for totally destructive hard Brexit either!
    I fear you are still blinded by the "We can have our cake and eat it" school of Tory thinking. A totally destructive Brexit is what she is heading for - ably guided there by the very serious, dedicated and hard-working Boris Johnson, of course.
    No, you are guided sad to say it seems by a complete refusal to accept the Leave vote which requires ending free movement and not staying fully in the single market and customs union.

    Even Barnier has said the Canada style FTA May is aiming for is entirely possible provided she does not go full Mogg and cut ties on everything completely (although May wants to go one better ideally with a distinctive FTA for the UK)
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    Scott_P said:
    They should have put Barrow and Carlisle on the list. In fact they should have moved Channel 4 to Barrow and shown the likes of Jon Snow what life is like in the bits of Britain no-one ever visits.

    Come to think of it, that would make quite a good TV show. Moving a trendy tv company to some god-forsaken place in the back of beyond and seeing how they survive...... I might pitch it. :)
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    PClipp said:



    I fear you are still blinded by the "We can have our cake and eat it" school of Tory thinking. A totally destructive Brexit is what she is heading for - ably guided there by the very serious, dedicated and hard-working Boris Johnson, of course.

    We are now in a position in which we will either have to jump over the cliff without a parachute or accept the EU's terms for a transitional deal. These terms will probably involve continued budget contributions and participating in pretty much all the EU economic structure without any say in the political structure for the indefinite future. There is no time for either the UK or EU to come up with any other way forward in the 10 short months we now have before Brexit day.

    The government will have to choose one of these options and it is far from clear that it will be able to survive the strains this will cause.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,038
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    They should have put Barrow and Carlisle on the list. In fact they should have moved Channel 4 to Barrow and shown the likes of Jon Snow what life is like in the bits of Britain no-one ever visits.

    Come to think of it, that would make quite a good TV show. Moving a trendy tv company to some god-forsaken place in the back of beyond and seeing how they survive...... I might pitch it. :)
    Trouble with Barrow is that isn’t even near itself. Or so it appears. Carlisle might not be a bad bet, actually. And, what happened to Norwich?
    Pity Newcastle’s off the list; live local culture. Would be good for C4.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    They should have put Barrow and Carlisle on the list. In fact they should have moved Channel 4 to Barrow and shown the likes of Jon Snow what life is like in the bits of Britain no-one ever visits.

    Come to think of it, that would make quite a good TV show. Moving a trendy tv company to some god-forsaken place in the back of beyond and seeing how they survive...... I might pitch it. :)
    Middlesbrough.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,115

    PClipp said:



    I fear you are still blinded by the "We can have our cake and eat it" school of Tory thinking. A totally destructive Brexit is what she is heading for - ably guided there by the very serious, dedicated and hard-working Boris Johnson, of course.

    We are now in a position in which we will either have to jump over the cliff without a parachute or accept the EU's terms for a transitional deal. These terms will probably involve continued budget contributions and participating in pretty much all the EU economic structure without any say in the political structure for the indefinite future. There is no time for either the UK or EU to come up with any other way forward in the 10 short months we now have before Brexit day.

    The government will have to choose one of these options and it is far from clear that it will be able to survive the strains this will cause.
    Someone's got a plan!

    https://metro.co.uk/2018/05/30/wetherspoons-boss-plan-brexit-reduce-prices-pubs-shops-7589395/

    The boss of pub chain Wetherspoons has offered Theresa May a plan for Brexit that involves leaving the EU with no deal but he says pubs would benefit.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    They should have put Barrow and Carlisle on the list. In fact they should have moved Channel 4 to Barrow and shown the likes of Jon Snow what life is like in the bits of Britain no-one ever visits.

    Come to think of it, that would make quite a good TV show. Moving a trendy tv company to some god-forsaken place in the back of beyond and seeing how they survive...... I might pitch it. :)
    "Bear Grylls presents - trendy metropolitan media wankers surviving in Carlisle"

    Got a bit of a ring to it.
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