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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On another planet
Politics is supposed to be the art of the possible. In one sense that’s just a truism: that which happens is, by definition, within the bounds of the possible. However, this week’s shown up again that Bismarck’s aphorism is only true to a degree. There are plenty of politicians who are not interested in the possible but only in their own priorities. And there are others who are sufficiently deluded as to believe that their own priorities are possible, against all available evidence.
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FPT: Incidentally, BBC News at Ten had a segment on Scotland possibly using the pound without a currency union. Good subject, except Sarah Smith failed to point out the glaring problems with such an approach (she did, I think, say there's be no central bank etc, but failed to elaborate about the significant consequences for the financial services sector). Morris Dancer was not impressed.
The Tory Party only ever panics in a crisis
Agree entirely Mr Herdson - MPs should bend their efforts to the task in hand - and for once, Boris was right - the voters want a rest from politicians.
https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/999668615585595392?s=21
And now, to bed.
Where have I heard that before?
ETA: this seems more likely than yet another election being called by the current or new prime minister.
That, couple with Leclerc performing well (and being lauded by Hamilton/Vettel), *and* being a young Ferrari driver means you should keep your eyes peeled for a market on him replacing Raikkonen. I'd be somewhat surprised if it didn't happen.
The objective is to construct a superficial narrative to establish the idea that there was an obvious alternative to whatever reality the government is forced to inhabit. When the contradictions of the Brexit campaign collapse when they encounter reality it is vital that there are many superficial alternatives to blame for that collapse. This is one of them.
In many respects the political debate in the UK since the referendum has been a process of trying to create a narrative of blame for when Brexit inevitably fails to live up to its fantastical campaign promises. There is very little debate about the real trade offs that exist between different priorities.
Please provide any evidence for this outlandish claim
I wouldn’t entirely rule out Hamilton moving to Ferrari, though, slightly unlikely though that might be.
It would be 1997 all over again.
If only Gove and Boris were indeed on another planet.
Could they take Corbyn, Macdonnell, Juncker, Selmayr, Putin, Trump and Kim Jong Un with them?
Think of the benefits to the planet...
However since Corbyn would last all of three months before another election - as he has neither political sense nor any workable policies - you wonder if he might subsequently get punished as well.
There is the potential for the government to manifestly lose the Confidence of the House in its Brexit policy, but it is very unlikely that it would lose a vote on a formal vote of No Confidence as David explains.
This would create a zombie government that existed with only the formal confidence of the house, but without the actual confidence of the house, unable to enact its policy in law, but also too scared of an election to go to the polls and able to survive Parliamentary procedure that would force an election.
The Fixed Term Parliaments Act needs to go and we need to fix this flaw in the Constitution.
Vettel has a say in his team mate. I doubt he'd say yes to Hamilton.
Mr. Me, the absence of a sunset clause in the FTP was and is ineffably stupid.
There is no version of Brexit that commands a majority in the House or the Country.
Anyone who says "will of the people" or "they know what they voted for" is a charlatan.
When even the architects are going public with their concerns about how Brexit will actually turn out, the 52% can no longer be assumed to be in favour...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44257670
(Dr Ydoethur: Suspect tautology!)
https://slate.com/business/2018/05/amazon-is-banning-customers-for-making-too-many-returns.html
Although it does seem the public still want tighter immigration controls, a Mori poll for the Telegraph today shows 2/3 of UK voters want a 'hostile environment' for illegal immigrants
https://mobile.twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1000268248473112577
-Six in ten (60%) people support an immigration policy that is designed to make it as difficult as possible for people who do not have the right to be in the UK to stay here.
- But almost two-thirds (64%) also prioritise that people who have the right to be here are not forced to leave, even if this means that some illegal immigrants are not deported
- The majority of the public (63%) say they are ashamed of how Britain has treated the Windrush generation and six in ten (61%) agree that the Windrush scandal is mainly a result of government incompetence rather than the rules on immigration
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/attitudes-towards-immigration-after-windrush
On Hamilton: lots of drivers want to drive for Ferrari just because of the history. I'd still be surprised if Vettel gave Hamilton the nod.
In justice to him as a multiple world champion and the second most successful driver of all time there seems no reason why he should accept such a position.
'Doethur' (DOY-theer) is 'Doctor'.
So technically my username is spelled Y Doethur.
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/abortion-referendum/its-a-yes-historic-abortion-referendum-set-to-pass-overwhelmingly-by-almost-7030-36948151.html
Watch the bandwagon roll North
We go ahead with that which honours a plurality instead.
I don't see where the votes would come from to pass a vote of No Confidence in either the government or May.
Buy I totally agree with the header . There is no reason to believe an election will resolve matters. It is true a majority, for anyone, would make it a little easier, and despite polling a campaign might lead to that, but all sides are chaotic right now, the public are divided, the last election only made things more complicated, and the idea in particular the tories could pull together for a snap election is laughable. Agreed on both counts.
Belgium without mayonnaise.
They can keep Guinness and Leprechauns without Misogyny and Terrorism.
Indeed the DUP is now closer to Poland's governing socially conservative Law and Justice Party than any of the main parties elsewhere in the UK and in the Republic of Ireland.
Poland of course is now the only European country along with Northern Ireland where abortion is still illegal and one of the few European countries along with Northern Ireland and Italy and Switzerland and a few other Eastern European nations that have not yet legalised gay marriage
In Fairness the only way I see an approach which gets through the Commons easily is if labour agree to it, and they keep shifting the goalposts and the tories aren't inclined to do so, so a path forward is tricky. I don't think it as certain as he believes but William might end up bring right at this rate about it all not happening, not due to a plan, but just failure to agree on an approach.
BBC: Virgin boss Sir Richard Branson readies himself for space
Mr. Sandpit, that's possible. However, Raikkonen's had a couple of one year extensions and there's a chance he might walk even if they don't renew it again. Plus, they need a replacement sooner or later.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44251343
SF have shifted their position 180 degrees in the last 20 years on social issues
however since this is a devolved issue they cant do anything until they return to Stormont as its a devolved issue
they must now be tempted as I reckon repeal will carry up north and would seriously wrongfoot the DUP
Therefore, the subsequent political ramifications would be more interesting.
The economic ones would of course be disastrous. And wouldn't it be the crowning irony if Corbyn, the man who has repeatedly talked about his insane desire to ape that crook Chavez who literally beggared the wealthiest country in Latin America, got the blame for an economic disaster of the Tories' making?
The Brexit situation is akin to a General Election in which one party, let's say the LDs, achieved an overall majority but the media/elite/the chattering classes refused to accept it. "They don't understand what they voted for, the manifesto was unclear, they're racist/misogynist/thick."
So they start off with legal challenges but lose them, then it's they cheated, they lied or there was foreign intervention. They refuse to engage and try to delay as much as they can, all the time demanding a recount.
If after two or three years of little progress they succeeded in engineering another general election, do you think the voters would accept this? Even many of those voters who wanted a Tory or Labour government.
It's all over, Remainers, you have nowhere to go. What are you pinning your hopes on, now that the tide of history is sweeping away your sandcastles of anger and despair?
There won't be another referendum, it would be the kiss of death to democracy, and most Remainers accept this.
As a Leave supporter, I say this in sorrow - not in anger.
In the 2017 General Election the Conservatives were massively ahead in the opinion polls and looking very likely to get circa 400 seats - and then Theresa May started making her 'staged appearances' and every time she opened her mouth you could feel the support ebbing away. The campaign from the start was poorly organised, poorly led, and indeed if ever anyone wanted to know how to lose an election they should examine May and the Conservative campaign of 2017.
With a new leader the Conservatives could easily win a clear majority at the next General Election as long the new leader is a true Brexit supporter and has the ability to communicate with the electorate. These conditions narrows down the field greatly, although the second condition could be somewhat reduced in importance if the new Conservative leader had a team of such who could do it for them, though this would be risky.
The new leader should concentrate first on the EU referendum, tie in the Conservative vote, then explain how Labour's policies would turn the UK into a Nicaragua+++. The electorate are neither dumb nor stupid, when they hear such common sense and evident truths the 'swing voters' will overwhelmingly go Conservative.
But as said above it requires a new leader, someone who will expel from the Conservative Party those who vote against the very major promises made in the manifesto - and thereby give the electorate a belief that what is promised in the manifesto will be adhered to.
But having said that, was it not reported that Germany could have wiped out Greek debt for less than the war reparations (possibly indexed) that the Greeks had waived?
Though I doubt this MP has totted up how much we might need to pay to various former colonies if his passion for compensation catches on.
I'm not saying these people are making any sense, but for the sake of argument let's pretend they have a rational strategy, and try to work out what it is.
Where you sit decides where you stand, so leavers generally represent places with strong UKIPpery.
Currently the government is heading for either a car-crash brexit that will bollocks up the economy or, from the point of view of the tabloids and the kipper-curious, a traitrous betrayal. Long-term these are both horrible for the Conservative Party, especially if you're defending against a kipperesque challenger.
A new election hopefully puts Jeremy Corbyn in charge of the final deal and the resulting goat rodeo, and failing that Tory MPs get an extra year. Seems like a win either way, no?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/424984.stm
Assuming a Yes vote in the Republic, what is the time limit on abortions likely to be?
And if you want to run the election on Brexit, then simply holding another referendum will be safer than alienating all Remain-supporting Conservative supporters.
But good luck with the Venezuela attacks that failed so dismally last year.
Of course he’s an egotist - almost all F1 drivers are (with the exception of the great Jim Clark) - but that’s all the more reason to take on the challenge.
Neither he nor Vettel are at their best when getting beaten, so it would be an interesting test for the team manager....
First you have to win your referendum, though.
I understand that some Leavers erroneously believe that we voted for things other than simply leaving the EU. We didn't, there was only one thing on the ballot paper.
I've never understood the tremendously guilty whites who feel bad about slavery. It ended centuries before they were born. People who were never slaves blaming people who never owned or trade slaves for slavery centuries ago just seems nuts to me.