FPT: Any timetable for the Irish results/exit polling?
Counting starts tomorrow at 9am. There are 40 constituencies. To judge by past experience, some tallies will be known by 10am; the first results around noon to 1pm; and the final result about 3pm.
Polls close at 10pm today. RTE say they will publish their exit poll at 10.30pm.
This morning's collision on the runway at Stansted has delayed a flight to Dublin. No injuries were reported. Apparently "a large number" of passengers were on their way to vote. Rumours that the other plane was carrying Vatican insignia are unsubstantiated.
FPT: Any timetable for the Irish results/exit polling?
Counting starts tomorrow at 9am. There are 40 constituencies. To judge by past experience, some tallies will be known by 10am; the first results around noon to 1pm; and the final result about 3pm.
Polls close at 10pm today. RTE say they will publish their exit poll at 10.30pm.
This morning's collision on the runway at Stansted has delayed a flight to Dublin. No injuries were reported. Apparently "a large number" of passengers were on their way to vote. Rumours that the other plane was carrying Vatican insignia are unsubstantiated.
It's likely to be closer than the Sindyref.
What does "FPT" mean?
What methodology does RTE use for the exit poll - sampling like the French or dual ballot boxes like the Israelis ?
In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.
I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
I do not like the potential scenario, but neither do I like the current puppet govt lurching around in fear of a few dozen xenophobic right wing loons in their own ranks.
Corbyn is a potential screw up. The current govt is s proven screwup.
Corbyn is a proven screw up. His reaction to the Skripal poisoning, Assad using chemical weapons and anti-semitism in his party show that. Having him in charge will make post-Brexit Britain very much worse than it might otherwise be. Abolishing capitalism for socialism, as his Chancellor recently reiterated was his aim, is actively malicious and deeply damaging to my childrens’ futures.
There are no good choices here. Personally, I will no longer tolerate the current government. The system needs a good shake up for its own good even though it will be painful. The current government is already damaging everyone's future including my children's - I will not endorse such a shower by voting for them.
That only leaves one choice however distasteful
I won’t cross this bridge myself, but the PB Tories need to ask themselves just why Corbynism is now mainstream for anyone under the age of 50.
As nobody under 50 has a memory of the last old Labour government from 1974 to 1979 of course.
In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.
I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
I do not like the potential scenario, but neither do I like the current puppet govt lurching around in fear of a few dozen xenophobic right wing loons in their own ranks.
Corbyn is a potential screw up. The current govt is s proven screwup.
Corbyn is a proven screw up. His reaction to the Skripal poisoning, Assad using chemical weapons and anti-semitism in his party show that. Having him in charge will make post-Brexit Britain very much worse than it might otherwise be. Abolishing capitalism for socialism, as his Chancellor recently reiterated was his aim, is actively malicious and deeply damaging to my childrens’ futures.
There are no good choices here. Personally, I will no longer tolerate the current government. The system needs a good shake up for its own good even though it will be painful. The current government is already damaging everyone's future including my children's - I will not endorse such a shower by voting for them.
That only leaves one choice however distasteful
I won’t cross this bridge myself, but the PB Tories need to ask themselves just why Corbynism is now mainstream for anyone under the age of 50.
That's easy:-
- Brexit - Student debt - The cost of housing - Stagnating wages - The NHS and worries over social care - Greedy companies taking the piss out of consumers - Banks: TSB, pensions misspelling to Tata steel workers and too many other examples to list here - People at the top not taking responsibility for their actions - Some Tories sounding as if they'd like to repeal the 1832 Reform Act
etc etc
Criticising and opposing are easy. Creating solutions and resolving problems are hard. Those who think that Corbynism is the answer need to ask themselves whether Corbyn really does have the - or any - solutions to any of these problems.
We’re in the same bucket - forced to vote LD because the alternatives are too grim.
However the LDs don’t have much to say on the above either (bar Brexit).
Looks like curtains for Rajoy and possibly the PP to be replaced as largest party by Ciudadanos. I'd be muy contento! Could also do for PSOE so there's a double bonus. However, all based on the polls which here in Spain make the UK ones look reliable!
The PP led one of the last 3 polls, Ciudadanos the other 2.
I won’t cross this bridge myself, but the PB Tories need to ask themselves just why Corbynism is now mainstream for anyone under the age of 50.
As nobody under 50 has a memory of the last old Labour government from 1974 to 1979 of course.
You have to be 56 to have voted in GE 1979
I am old enough to remember 1979 very clearly although I was just too young to vote in that election. The Labour govt was bad but Maggie looked, in many ways, to be worse because she threatened to upset so many apple carts with her policies, but voters were desperate...
To a certain extent, this is the same thing but the other way around. Corbyn looks like he will upset many apple carts. Whilst personally I doubt that we will get a transformative result like we did under Mrs Thatcher, it is clear that the overall balance of the system needs disturbing. To use a well worn phrase we can only hope that "The long term gain justifies the short term pain" (It would be funny if the irony of deploying a Tory/Brexit supporting slogan for Corbyn was not so sharp).
I do not want to vote for Corbyn, but the Tory party gives me little choice. If the LibDems could pull their head out of their collective backside and offer some sort of salvation then I would vote for them but what are they offering? Nothing that I can see.
I won’t cross this bridge myself, but the PB Tories need to ask themselves just why Corbynism is now mainstream for anyone under the age of 50.
As nobody under 50 has a memory of the last old Labour government from 1974 to 1979 of course.
You have to be 56 to have voted in GE 1979
I am old enough to remember 1979 very clearly although I was just too young to vote in that election. The Labour govt was bad but Maggie looked, in many ways, to be worse because she threatened to upset so many apple carts with her policies, but voters were desperate...
To a certain extent, this is the same thing but the other way around. Corbyn looks like he will upset many apple carts. Whilst personally I doubt that we will get a transformative result like we did under Mrs Thatcher, it is clear that the overall balance of the system needs disturbing. To use a well worn phrase we can only hope that "The long term gain justifies the short term pain" (It would be funny if the irony of deploying a Tory/Brexit supporting slogan for Corbyn was not so sharp).
I do not want to vote for Corbyn, but the Tory party gives me little choice. If the LibDems could pull their head out of their collective backside and offer some sort of salvation then I would vote for them but what are they offering? Nothing that I can see.
If Corbyn gets in he will be the UK Hollande, I expect the Tories would soon build up a big poll lead and unless the centre left finds a Macron, maybe Umunna?, to replace him the Tories would comfortably win the next general election
I won’t cross this bridge myself, but the PB Tories need to ask themselves just why Corbynism is now mainstream for anyone under the age of 50.
As nobody under 50 has a memory of the last old Labour government from 1974 to 1979 of course.
You have to be 56 to have voted in GE 1979
I am old enough to remember 1979 very clearly although I was just too young to vote in that election. The Labour govt was bad but Maggie looked, in many ways, to be worse because she threatened to upset so many apple carts with her policies, but voters were desperate...
To a certain extent, this is the same thing but the other way around. Corbyn looks like he will upset many apple carts. Whilst personally I doubt that we will get a transformative result like we did under Mrs Thatcher, it is clear that the overall balance of the system needs disturbing. To use a well worn phrase we can only hope that "The long term gain justifies the short term pain" (It would be funny if the irony of deploying a Tory/Brexit supporting slogan for Corbyn was not so sharp).
I do not want to vote for Corbyn, but the Tory party gives me little choice. If the LibDems could pull their head out of their collective backside and offer some sort of salvation then I would vote for them but what are they offering? Nothing that I can see.
If Corbyn gets in he will be the UK Hollande, I expect the Tories would soon build up a big poll lead and unless the centre left finds a Macron, maybe Umunna?, to replace him the Tories would comfortably win the next general election
That may well be the case and I have no problem with that. I am not a Labour supporter trying to "Keep the Tories out". What I want is for the party to lose, indulge in the ritual blood-letting that follows an election loss and make themselves more relevant and reponsive. What Cameron did. What Blair did. What Thatcher did. Every so often it needs doing because continuous rule breeds complacency and entitlement.
I do not give a d*mn about either of the big parties. What I want is for either of them to actually try running things properly instead of fannying around.I will tolerate my dislike if they are competent and doing good for the country, but a bunch of talentless twits I have no time for.
It is a pity that both main parties look useless. The system needs a shock to kickstart its balance.
Looks like curtains for Rajoy and possibly the PP to be replaced as largest party by Ciudadanos. I'd be muy contento! Could also do for PSOE so there's a double bonus. However, all based on the polls which here in Spain make the UK ones look reliable!
The PP led one of the last 3 polls, Ciudadanos the other 2.
Looks like curtains for Rajoy and possibly the PP to be replaced as largest party by Ciudadanos. I'd be muy contento! Could also do for PSOE so there's a double bonus. However, all based on the polls which here in Spain make the UK ones look reliable!
The PP led one of the last 3 polls, Ciudadanos the other 2.
@Beverley_C - Your statement in favour of Corbyn can very easily be applied to Brexit.
To a certain extent, this is the same thing but the other way around. Brexit looks like it will upset many apple carts. Whilst personally I doubt that we will get a transformative result like we did under Mrs Thatcher, it is clear that the overall balance of the system needs disturbing. To use a well worn phrase we can only hope that "The long term gain justifies the short term pain" (It would be funny if the irony of deploying a Tory supporting slogan for Brexit was not so sharp).
I do not want to vote for Brexit, but the status quo gives me little choice. If the establishment could pull their head out of their collective backside and offer some sort of salvation then I would vote for them but what are they offering? Nothing that I can see.
Please think hard before voting for a party headed by Corbyn.
Ciudadanos would presumably be natural allies for Macron in his attempts to drive Euro reform.
Not sure on that - they are broadly centre right but quite fiercely nationalist with regard to Catalonia for example. We could be on for a major re-alignment of both left and right but at the moment the right is significantly stronger overall. Spain is generally pro-EU.
Please think hard before voting for a party headed by Corbyn.
Trust me - I will think d*mn hard before I vote for any of them.
[Edit: I do not necessarily disagree with your "Brexit interpretation" of what I said. It is why I have come to believe that a hard Brexit must happen.]
I disagree with the premise of this thread which assumes Corbyn needs an overall majority to become PM. He does not need a majority nor even to be leader of the largest party to become PM if he gets the backing of the SNP, Plaid, the LDs and the Greens and Cable is much less likely than Clegg was to prop up the Tories. See New Zealand last year where the Nationals won most seats but Labour leader Jacinda Ardern became PM with Green and New Zealand First support. Thus Cable could be our Winston Peters if the Tories fail to win a majority next time or have enough seats again to have a majority with the DUP.
Thus 'Vote Sturgeon or Cable and get Corbyn', could well be a Tory slogan next time
I would like to bet that the LDs will make clear well in advance their extreme distaste for Corbyn otherwise that will certainly be a Tory slogan. It'd work and both sides know it. For the LDs to gain any meaningful number of seats they have to persuade people who voted Tory to switch.
I won’t cross this bridge myself, but the PB Tories need to ask themselves just why Corbynism is now mainstream for anyone under the age of 50.
As nobody under 50 has a memory of the last old Labour government from 1974 to 1979 of course.
You have to be 56 to have voted in GE 1979
I am old enough to remember 1979 very clearly although I was just too young to vote in that election. The Labour govt was bad but Maggie looked, in many ways, to be worse because she threatened to upset so many apple carts with at I can see.
If Corbyn gets in he will be the UK Hollande, I expect the Tories would soon build up a big poll lead and unless the centre left finds a Macron, maybe Umunna?, to replace him the Tories would comfortably win the next general election
That may well be the case and I have no problem with that. I am not a Labour supporter trying to "Keep the Tories out". What I want is for the party to lose, indulge in the ritual blood-letting that follows an election loss and make themselves more relevant and reponsive. What Cameron did. What Blair did. What Thatcher did. Every so often it needs doing because continuous rule breeds complacency and entitlement.
I do not give a d*mn about either of the big parties. What I want is for either of them to actually try running things properly instead of fannying around.I will tolerate my dislike if they are competent and doing good for the country, but a bunch of talentless twits I have no time for.
It is a pity that both main parties look useless. The system needs a shock to kickstart its balance.
It should also be pointed out after a term of Tsipras the centre right New Democrats have a big poll lead in Greece now ahead of the next general election there and even in New Zealand Ardern's Labour are trailing the Nationals in polling again.
Certainly I agree that after almost a decade of the Tories in power a more centrist Labour leader similar to Trudeau or Macron could be in for a while but Corbyn ensures the Tories are still very much in the game, as indeed in the short term at least does the Brexit vote
I disagree with the premise of this thread which assumes Corbyn needs an overall majority to become PM. He does not need a majority nor even to be leader of the largest party to become PM if he gets the backing of the SNP, Plaid, the LDs and the Greens and Cable is much less likely than Clegg was to prop up the Tories. See New Zealand last year where the Nationals won most seats but Labour leader Jacinda Ardern became PM with Green and New Zealand First support. Thus Cable could be our Winston Peters if the Tories fail to win a majority next time or have enough seats again to have a majority with the DUP.
Thus 'Vote Sturgeon or Cable and get Corbyn', could well be a Tory slogan next time
I would like to bet that the LDs will make clear well in advance their extreme distaste for Corbyn otherwise that will certainly be a Tory slogan. It'd work and both sides know it. For the LDs to gain any meaningful number of seats they have to persuade people who voted Tory to switch.
Yet even LD abstention on confidence and supply could let Corbyn in
What is the likelihood that Pakistan will overtake Englands first innings total for the fall of only one wicket?
Brilliant! You did it. They need all the help they can get.
When bowlers stop bowling short, they give themselves a chance - something Broad and Anderson seem to have forgotten last night.
They have periodically been forgetting that for the best part of a decade. I really don't understand why they bowl so much short stuff. Its not like either of them are lightning quick. They rely far more on precision and late movement than pace. It's profoundly frustrating watching them.
Mr. Felix, it may well be that Mrs C either doesn't know or forgot the comment that McDonnell made about McVey. There's no need to be condescending.
Thank you Mr Moderator. Oh....
OK - I have looked it up and found it was a remark made four years ago. And he was not even the originator of the remark...
It was wrong, it was inappropriate and he should have apologised, but to bang on about a four year old remark? OK - so McDonnell appears to be happy to be seen as an insensitive berk. That is his problem.
Life is too short for this sort of stuff. Move on.
Hmm I disagree, with the exception of one or two Lab-Tory battles in Scotland it doesn't matter if the SNP or Labour win the seats. Both back Corbyn for PM.
I agree. It only takes Labour to win 15 seats off the Conservatives in England and say hello to Prime Minister Corbyn.
Indeed, were the SNP to resurge to their 2015 levels, Labour might only need to stand still in England and Wales.
The Holyrood elections will be a major pointer, but I do suspect that the Scttish electorate are tiring of the SNP. In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.
You are the Scottish political press circa 2010 and I claim my 5 pounds.
If Corbyn gets in he will be the UK Hollande, I expect the Tories would soon build up a big poll lead and unless the centre left finds a Macron, maybe Umunna?, to replace him the Tories would comfortably win the next general election
Possibly. Initially I think he'd do quite well, as people found he wasn't the madman that the Mail and Sun had built him up to be. By mid-term the difficulties of meeting expectations without upsetting the applecart would be challenging.
But all these things are part of democratic change, as Beverley suggests. People try one thing, then another. Parties respond in one way, then adjust. A situation where an exhausted party hangs on indefinitely on the basis of "but the others might be worse" is fundamentally unhealthy, not only for democracy but also for the parties in question. The Tories really need a period to think what they're about. Labour really needs to try some socialist government and either find it works or find it doesn't. Britain needs both to come up with credible long-term alternatives.
Hmm I'm inclined to think the other way, it should be more like 1-10. At odds against 60-70% may well be value at 11-4, personally I have £10 at 3-20 on it being carried. The gay marriage polling was a long way off but it doesn't neccesarily mean it will be again.
What is the likelihood that Pakistan will overtake Englands first innings total for the fall of only one wicket?
Brilliant! You did it. They need all the help they can get.
When bowlers stop bowling short, they give themselves a chance - something Broad and Anderson seem to have forgotten last night.
They have periodically been forgetting that for the best part of a decade. I really don't understand why they bowl so much short stuff. Its not like either of them are lightning quick. They rely far more on precision and late movement than pace. It's profoundly frustrating watching them.
Bowling short is the fast-medium bowler's virility symbol.
If Corbyn gets in he will be the UK Hollande, I expect the Tories would soon build up a big poll lead and unless the centre left finds a Macron, maybe Umunna?, to replace him the Tories would comfortably win the next general election
Possibly. Initially I think he'd do quite well, as people found he wasn't the madman that the Mail and Sun had built him up to be. By mid-term the difficulties of meeting expectations without upsetting the applecart would be challenging.
But all these things are part of democratic change, as Beverley suggests. People try one thing, then another. Parties respond in one way, then adjust. A situation where an exhausted party hangs on indefinitely on the basis of "but the others might be worse" is fundamentally unhealthy, not only for democracy but also for the parties in question. The Tories really need a period to think what they're about. Labour really needs to try some socialist government and either find it works or find it doesn't. Britain needs both to come up with credible long-term alternatives.
My God... a voice of reason. How did you stumble into this place today?
The London Evening Standard insulting voters in England and Wales who live outside London.
Is it capitalism?
Although it wasn't Brexit related that photo of Johnson at the Olympics wedged in mid air, dangling from a parachute waving his union jacks, will always epitomise Brexit to me!
If Corbyn gets in he will be the UK Hollande, I expect the Tories would soon build up a big poll lead and unless the centre left finds a Macron, maybe Umunna?, to replace him the Tories would comfortably win the next general election
Possibly. Initially I think he'd do quite well, as people found he wasn't the madman that the Mail and Sun had built him up to be. By mid-term the difficulties of meeting expectations without upsetting the applecart would be challenging.
But all these things are part of democratic change, as Beverley suggests. People try one thing, then another. Parties respond in one way, then adjust. A situation where an exhausted party hangs on indefinitely on the basis of "but the others might be worse" is fundamentally unhealthy, not only for democracy but also for the parties in question. The Tories really need a period to think what they're about. Labour really needs to try some socialist government and either find it works or find it doesn't. Britain needs both to come up with credible long-term alternatives.
My God... a voice of reason. How did you stumble into this place today?
This is the party which favours whole scale nationalisation, huge borrowing, loves Russia and Venezuela and warns the free press that 'Change is coming'... Voice of reason indeed.
The London Evening Standard insulting voters in England and Wales who live outside London.
Is it capitalism?
Although it wasn't Brexit related that photo of Johnson at the Olympics wedged in mid air, dangling from a parachute waving his union jacks, will always epitomise Brexit to me!
This was one of the best front pages after the vote:
I disagree with the premise of this thread which assumes Corbyn needs an overall majority to become PM. He does not need a majority nor even to be leader of the largest party to become PM if he gets the backing of the SNP, Plaid, the LDs and the Greens and Cable is much less likely than Clegg was to prop up the Tories. See New Zealand last year where the Nationals won most seats but Labour leader Jacinda Ardern became PM with Green and New Zealand First support. Thus Cable could be our Winston Peters if the Tories fail to win a majority next time or have enough seats again to have a majority with the DUP. Thus 'Vote Sturgeon or Cable and get Corbyn', could well be a Tory slogan next time
I would like to bet that the LDs will make clear well in advance their extreme distaste for Corbyn otherwise that will certainly be a Tory slogan. It'd work and both sides know it. For the LDs to gain any meaningful number of seats they have to persuade people who voted Tory to switch.
Yet even LD abstention on confidence and supply could let Corbyn in
At least Corbyn would be held on a very tight rein by the Lib Dems. The result would probably acceptable to most of the country.
Alternatively, he could look to the Conservatives for their support. After all, he has been sending his troops into the voting lobbies to vote with the Tories in most major divisions in this Parliament. Both Commons and Lords.
In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.
I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
I do not like the potential scenario, but neither do I like the current puppet govt lurching around in fear of a few dozen xenophobic right wing loons in their own ranks.
Corbyn is a potential screw up. The current govt is s proven screwup.
Corbyn is a proven screw up. His reaction to the Skripal poisoning, Assad using chemical weapons and anti-semitism in his party show that. Having him in charge will make post-Brexit Britain very much worse than it might otherwise be. Abolishing capitalism for socialism, as his Chancellor recently reiterated was his aim, is actively malicious and deeply damaging to my childrens’ futures.
There are no good choices here. Personally, I will no longer tolerate the current government. The system needs a good shake up for its own good even though it will be painful. The current government is already damaging everyone's future including my children's - I will not endorse such a shower by voting for them.
That only leaves one choice however distasteful
I won’t cross this bridge myself, but the PB Tories need to ask themselves just why Corbynism is now mainstream for anyone under the age of 50.
That's easy:-
- Brexit - Student debt - The cost of housing - Stagnating wages - The NHS and worries over social care - Greedy companies taking the piss out of consumers - Banks: TSB, pensions misspelling to Tata steel workers and too many other examples to list here - People at the top not taking responsibility for their actions - Some Tories sounding as if they'd like to repeal the 1832 Reform Act
etc etc
Criticising and opposing are easy. Creating solutions and resolving problems are hard. Those who think that Corbynism is the answer need to ask themselves whether Corbyn really does have the - or any - solutions to any of these problems.
This question is never really asked about the opposition save until the GE campaign.
Well I'm asking it now. How can those who say that they will vote Corbyn do so in good conscience if they can't say that he does have solutions?
It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit
But you're not disputing that the SNP would back Labour?
In which case Labour 277 + SNP 31 = 308.
Given that the Conservatives are soaring in Scotland I think the SNP will be more guarded about doing a deal with labour so I wouldn't take that as a certainty. In fact I think it probably wouldn't happen. Another factor is that the Lib Dems currently have no serious targets from labour seats
Cuckoo.
SNP allowing a Tory government in power is an SNP that never wants to be in power in Holyrood again.
If Corbyn gets in he will be the UK Hollande, I expect the Tories would soon build up a big poll lead and unless the centre left finds a Macron, maybe Umunna?, to replace him the Tories would comfortably win the next general election
Possibly. Initially I think he'd do quite well, as people found he wasn't the madman that the Mail and Sun had built him up to be. By mid-term the difficulties of meeting expectations without upsetting the applecart would be challenging.
But all these things are part of democratic change, as Beverley suggests. People try one thing, then another. Parties respond in one way, then adjust. A situation where an exhausted party hangs on indefinitely on the basis of "but the others might be worse" is fundamentally unhealthy, not only for democracy but also for the parties in question. The Tories really need a period to think what they're about. Labour really needs to try some socialist government and either find it works or find it doesn't. Britain needs both to come up with credible long-term alternatives.
My God... a voice of reason. How did you stumble into this place today?
This is the party which favours whole scale nationalisation, huge borrowing, loves Russia and Venezuela and warns the free press that 'Change is coming'... Voice of reason indeed.
Yeah yeah yeah - and you are the party of "Have cake and eat it". How is that working out?
If Corbyn gets in he will be the UK Hollande, I expect the Tories would soon build up a big poll lead and unless the centre left finds a Macron, maybe Umunna?, to replace him the Tories would comfortably win the next general election
Possibly. Initially I think he'd do quite well, as people found he wasn't the madman that the Mail and Sun had built him up to be. By mid-term the difficulties of meeting expectations without upsetting the applecart would be challenging.
But all these things are part of democratic change, as Beverley suggests. People try one thing, then another. Parties respond in one way, then adjust. A situation where an exhausted party hangs on indefinitely on the basis of "but the others might be worse" is fundamentally unhealthy, not only for democracy but also for the parties in question. The Tories really need a period to think what they're about. Labour really needs to try some socialist government and either find it works or find it doesn't. Britain needs both to come up with credible long-term alternatives.
As history clearly proves Britain is not a socialist country, it may not be a natural Thatcherite country either but New Labour and Cameroon Toryism are closer to where most voters are than Corbynism is as would be discovered after a few years of Corbyn as PM.
Though if Corbyn does get in it will largely be on 'time for a change' as you suggest
I disagree with the premise of this thread which assumes Corbyn needs an overall majority to become PM. He does not need a majority nor even to be leader of the largest party to become PM if he gets the backing of the SNP, Plaid, the LDs and the Greens and Cable is much less likely than Clegg was to prop up the Tories. See New Zealand last year where the Nationals won most seats but Labour leader Jacinda Ardern became PM with Green and New Zealand First support. Thus Cable could be our Winston Peters if the Tories fail to win a majority next time or have enough seats again to have a majority with the DUP. Thus 'Vote Sturgeon or Cable and get Corbyn', could well be a Tory slogan next time
I would like to bet that the LDs will make clear well in advance their extreme distaste for Corbyn otherwise that will certainly be a Tory slogan. It'd work and both sides know it. For the LDs to gain any meaningful number of seats they have to persuade people who voted Tory to switch.
Yet even LD abstention on confidence and supply could let Corbyn in
At least Corbyn would be held on a very tight rein by the Lib Dems. The result would probably acceptable to most of the country.
Alternatively, he could look to the Conservatives for their support. After all, he has been sending his troops into the voting lobbies to vote with the Tories in most major divisions in this Parliament. Both Commons and Lords.
He would rely on the LDs on domestic policy and Tory Brexiteers on Brexit
Mr. Felix, it may well be that Mrs C either doesn't know or forgot the comment that McDonnell made about McVey. There's no need to be condescending.
Thank you Mr Moderator. Oh....
OK - I have looked it up and found it was a remark made four years ago. And he was not even the originator of the remark...
It was wrong, it was inappropriate and he should have apologised, but to bang on about a four year old remark? OK - so McDonnell appears to be happy to be seen as an insensitive berk. That is his problem.
Life is too short for this sort of stuff. Move on.
The Mirror banged on about him refusing to apologise this year.
The London Evening Standard insulting voters in England and Wales who live outside London.
Is it capitalism?
Although it wasn't Brexit related that photo of Johnson at the Olympics wedged in mid air, dangling from a parachute waving his union jacks, will always epitomise Brexit to me!
This was one of the best front pages after the vote:
Thanks for that - you have to keep reminding yourself that that is our Foreign Secretary and a man with significant responsibility for delivering Brexit. What could possibly go wrong I ask myself
It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit
But you're not disputing that the SNP would back Labour?
In which case Labour 277 + SNP 31 = 308.
Given that the Conservatives are soaring in Scotland I think the SNP will be more guarded about doing a deal with labour so I wouldn't take that as a certainty. In fact I think it probably wouldn't happen. Another factor is that the Lib Dems currently have no serious targets from labour seats
Cuckoo.
SNP allowing a Tory government in power is an SNP that never wants to be in power in Holyrood again.
The SNP could demand Indy from Corbyn probably without a referendum - and he would give them that.
A referendum would be granted too if the SNP were timid about their demands.
That would be the price and Corbo would pay it in a flash.
The London Evening Standard insulting voters in England and Wales who live outside London.
Is it capitalism?
Osborne is now utterly focused on appealing to London metropolitan liberals and Remainers and using the Evening Standard to do so.
I think his main political ambition now is to be Mayor of London, he has given up on being PM or returning to Westminster so has little need now to bother himself with the provinces and their concerns
It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit
But you're not disputing that the SNP would back Labour?
In which case Labour 277 + SNP 31 = 308.
Given that the Conservatives are soaring in Scotland I think the SNP will be more guarded about doing a deal with labour so I wouldn't take that as a certainty. In fact I think it probably wouldn't happen. Another factor is that the Lib Dems currently have no serious targets from labour seats
Cuckoo.
SNP allowing a Tory government in power is an SNP that never wants to be in power in Holyrood again.
The SNP could demand Indy from Corbyn probably without a referendum - and he would give them that.
A referendum would be granted too if the SNP were timid about their demands.
That would be the price and Corbo would pay it in a flash.
Not on a confidence and supply deal rather than a coalition and in any case the Tories, LDs and most Labour backbenchers would vote indyref 2 down most likely and certainly would vote down independence with no referendum.
Not to mention the next general election in 2022 is due after the next Holyrood elections in 2021 where polls now predict a majority for the Unionist parties anyway
Mr. Felix, it may well be that Mrs C either doesn't know or forgot the comment that McDonnell made about McVey. There's no need to be condescending.
Thank you Mr Moderator. Oh....
OK - I have looked it up and found it was a remark made four years ago. And he was not even the originator of the remark...
It was wrong, it was inappropriate and he should have apologised, but to bang on about a four year old remark? OK - so McDonnell appears to be happy to be seen as an insensitive berk. That is his problem.
Life is too short for this sort of stuff. Move on.
He has been asked to apologise and has refused. Why?
Life is not too short for this. Not calling out those who threaten women, women in public life, is quite quite wrong. Such women are at risk and I do not need to remind you that one was killed two years ago by the sort of berk who thought violence against political opponents was acceptable.
McDonnell has on other occasions praised the use of violence by those seeking to make a political point and I am not just referring to his support of the IRA.
If unpleasant sexist comments addressed to or about women are a no-no, I do not see why we should give a free pass to politicians who use, condone or refuse to condemn unpleasant violent comments about or addressed to women.
In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.
I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
I do not like the potential scenario, but neither do I like the current puppet govt lurching around in fear of a few dozen xenophobic right wing loons in their own ranks.
Corbyn is a potential screw up. The current govt is s proven screwup.
Corbyn is a proven screw up. His reaction to the Skripal poisoning, Assad using chemical weapons and anti-semitism in his party show that. Having him in charge will make post-Brexit Britain very much worse than it might otherwise be. Abolishing capitalism for socialism, as his Chancellor recently reiterated was his aim, is actively malicious and deeply damaging to my childrens’ futures.
There are no good choices here. Personally, I will no longer tolerate the current government. The system needs a good shake up for its own good even though it will be painful. The current government is already damaging everyone's future including my children's - I will not endorse such a shower by voting for them.
That only leaves one choice however distasteful
I won’t cross this bridge myself, but the PB Tories need to ask themselves just why Corbynism is now mainstream for anyone under the age of 50.
As nobody under 50 has a memory of the last old Labour government from 1974 to 1979 of course.
You have to be 56 to have voted in GE 1979
57 - the election was on the 3rd of May.
I voted, but only because Big Jim postponed his originally intended Autumn 1978 election until after my 18th birthday, he could have clung on until November 1979 but he lost a vote of no confidence early in the year.
In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.
I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
I do not like the potential scenario, but neither do I like the current puppet govt lurching around in fear of a few dozen xenophobic right wing loons in their own ranks.
Corbyn is a potential screw up. The current govt is s proven screwup.
Corbyn is a proven screw up. His reaction to the Skripal poisoning, Assad using chemical weapons and anti-semitism in his party show that. Having him in charge will make post-Brexit Britain very much worse than it might otherwise be. Abolishing capitalism for socialism, as his Chancellor recently reiterated was his aim, is actively malicious and deeply damaging to my childrens’ futures.
There are no good choices here. Personally, I will no longer tolerate the current government. The system needs a good shake up for its own good even though it will be painful. The current government is already damaging everyone's future including my children's - I will not endorse such a shower by voting for them.
That only leaves one choice however distasteful
I won’t cross this bridge myself, but the PB Tories need to ask themselves just why Corbynism is now mainstream for anyone under the age of 50.
As nobody under 50 has a memory of the last old Labour government from 1974 to 1979 of course.
You have to be 56 to have voted in GE 1979
PB'ers deserve better than such lazy and trite commentary
I disagree with the premise of this thread which assumes Corbyn needs an overall majority to become PM. He does not need a majority nor even to be leader of the largest party to become PM if he gets the backing of the SNP, Plaid, the LDs and the Greens and Cable is much less likely than Clegg was to prop up the Tories. See New Zealand last year where the Nationals won most seats but Labour leader Jacinda Ardern became PM with Green and New Zealand First support. Thus Cable could be our Winston Peters if the Tories fail to win a majority next time or have enough seats again to have a majority with the DUP. Thus 'Vote Sturgeon or Cable and get Corbyn', could well be a Tory slogan next time
I would like to bet that the LDs will make clear well in advance their extreme distaste for Corbyn otherwise that will certainly be a Tory slogan. It'd work and both sides know it. For the LDs to gain any meaningful number of seats they have to persuade people who voted Tory to switch.
Yet even LD abstention on confidence and supply could let Corbyn in
At least Corbyn would be held on a very tight rein by the Lib Dems. The result would probably acceptable to most of the country.
Alternatively, he could look to the Conservatives for their support. After all, he has been sending his troops into the voting lobbies to vote with the Tories in most major divisions in this Parliament. Both Commons and Lords.
He would rely on the LDs on domestic policy and Tory Brexiteers on Brexit
I think he could safely count on Conservatives votes there. But I doubt the Lib Dems would support everything Corbyn wanted to do - when he finally tells us what that is, of course. Conservatives are a relative push-over.
Curious that Beverly C is getting this amount of backlash for declaring that she’ll vote Labour, but other PBers who also vote Labour aren’t (such as bigjohnowls, Sandy, Dura Ace et al).
Well I'm asking it now. How can those who say that they will vote Corbyn do so in good conscience if they can't say that he does have solutions?
Corbyn certainly doesn't have any solutions as he is too much of an ideologue (in addition to being genuinely stupid and quite lazy) but voting for him is the best way to give the tories their richly deserved punishment beating.
In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.
I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
I do not like the potential scenario, but neither do I like the current puppet govt lurching around in fear of a few dozen xenophobic right wing loons in their own ranks.
Corbyn is a potential screw up. The current govt is s proven screwup.
Corbyn is a proven screw up. His reaction to the Skripal poisoning, Assad using chemical weapons and anti-semitism in his party show that. Having him in charge will make post-Brexit Britain very much worse than it might otherwise be. Abolishing capitalism for socialism, as his Chancellor recently reiterated was his aim, is actively malicious and deeply damaging to my childrens’ futures.
There are no good choices here. Personally, I will no longer tolerate the current government. The system needs a good shake up for its own good even though it will be painful. The current government is already damaging everyone's future including my children's - I will not endorse such a shower by voting for them.
That only leaves one choice however distasteful
I won’t cross this bridge myself, but the PB Tories need to ask themselves just why Corbynism is now mainstream for anyone under the age of 50.
As nobody under 50 has a memory of the last old Labour government from 1974 to 1979 of course.
You have to be 56 to have voted in GE 1979
PB'ers deserve better than such lazy and trite commentary
It is neither lazy nor trite but a statement of the obvious, many young people are socialists until they actually experience living under a socialist government!
Mr. Felix, it may well be that Mrs C either doesn't know or forgot the comment that McDonnell made about McVey. There's no need to be condescending.
Thank you Mr Moderator. Oh....
OK - I have looked it up and found it was a remark made four years ago. And he was not even the originator of the remark...
It was wrong, it was inappropriate and he should have apologised, but to bang on about a four year old remark? OK - so McDonnell appears to be happy to be seen as an insensitive berk. That is his problem.
Life is too short for this sort of stuff. Move on.
He has been asked to apologise and has refused. Why?
Life is not too short for this. Not calling out those who threaten women, women in public life, is quite quite wrong. Such women are at risk and I do not need to remind you that one was killed two years ago by the sort of berk who thought violence against political opponents was acceptable.
McDonnell has on other occasions praised the use of violence by those seeking to make a political point and I am not just referring to his support of the IRA.
If unpleasant sexist comments addressed to or about women are a no-no, I do not see why we should give a free pass to politicians who use, condone or refuse to condemn unpleasant violent comments about or addressed to women.
She's a Tory. They don't really count as proper women.
Curious that Beverly C is getting this amount of backlash for declaring that she’ll vote Labour, but other PBers who also vote Labour aren’t (such as bigjohnowls, Sandy, Dura Ace et al).
I would be sorry to see Beverley C go. But I can assure you that my views on people voting for a Corbyn-led Labour Party apply to everyone who does so and not just her.
I'm slightly surprised that she is though. I would have had her down as a Lib Dem. I think the reason she may have attracted attention is that this is the first time, as far as I know, she has said she will or is likely to vote Labour.
Well I'm asking it now. How can those who say that they will vote Corbyn do so in good conscience if they can't say that he does have solutions?
Corbyn certainly doesn't have any solutions as he is too much of an ideologue (in addition to being genuinely stupid and quite lazy) but voting for him is the best way to give the tories their richly deserved punishment beating.
And then what? The rest of us have to endure a punishment beating from a stupid, lazy ideological leader with no solutions........
Curious that Beverly C is getting this amount of backlash for declaring that she’ll vote Labour, but other PBers who also vote Labour aren’t (such as bigjohnowls, Sandy, Dura Ace et al).
I would be sorry to see Beverley C go. But I can assure you that my views on people voting for a Corbyn-led Labour Party apply to everyone who does so and not just her.
I'm slightly surprised that she is though. I would have had her down as a Lib Dem. I think the reason she may have attracted attention is that this is the first time, as far as I know, she has said she will or is likely to vote Labour.
As Neil Woodford recently said about Capita, to sell now would be to compound the error. In a similiar vein voting in Corbyn would compound the Brexit error.
Curious that Beverly C is getting this amount of backlash for declaring that she’ll vote Labour, but other PBers who also vote Labour aren’t (such as bigjohnowls, Sandy, Dura Ace et al).
I would be sorry to see Beverley C go. But I can assure you that my views on people voting for a Corbyn-led Labour Party apply to everyone who does so and not just her.
I'm slightly surprised that she is though. I would have had her down as a Lib Dem. I think the reason she may have attracted attention is that this is the first time, as far as I know, she has said she will or is likely to vote Labour.
Well I'm asking it now. How can those who say that they will vote Corbyn do so in good conscience if they can't say that he does have solutions?
Corbyn certainly doesn't have any solutions as he is too much of an ideologue (in addition to being genuinely stupid and quite lazy) but voting for him is the best way to give the tories their richly deserved punishment beating.
And then what? The rest of us have to endure a punishment beating from a stupid, lazy ideological leader with no solutions........
Cutting noses etc....
Plus the Tories would revive quicker than Lazarus after a few months of PM Corbyn and Chancellor McDonnell
Bleah. It's quite rare that anyone on PB actually changes their votes - that's the only explanation I can see for the gang-mugging of Beverley C for contemplating moving from LibDem to Labour, which is scarcely a unique seismic change.
I've just been recommending PB to someone interested in politics - let's hope he doesn't think this is typical of how we carry on.
And I'd say the same if Southam voted Tory, or indeed if Roger voted UKIP. We've all got a right to move around if we want to, without too much shrill derision. We have an opinion until we have a different one - that's just how human beings are.
Comments
I knew that would get us a break through.
https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/10.2514/1.A34153
Autophage Engines: Toward a Throttleable Solid Motor
Polls close at 10pm today. RTE say they will publish their exit poll at 10.30pm.
This morning's collision on the runway at Stansted has delayed a flight to Dublin. No injuries were reported. Apparently "a large number" of passengers were on their way to vote. Rumours that the other plane was carrying Vatican insignia are unsubstantiated.
It's likely to be closer than the Sindyref.
What does "FPT" mean?
FPT = 'from previous/preceding/prior thread'.
You have to be 56 to have voted in GE 1979
However the LDs don’t have much to say on the above either (bar Brexit).
Podemos and the PSOE are also not far behind
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election
To a certain extent, this is the same thing but the other way around. Corbyn looks like he will upset many apple carts. Whilst personally I doubt that we will get a transformative result like we did under Mrs Thatcher, it is clear that the overall balance of the system needs disturbing. To use a well worn phrase we can only hope that "The long term gain justifies the short term pain" (It would be funny if the irony of deploying a Tory/Brexit supporting slogan for Corbyn was not so sharp).
I do not want to vote for Corbyn, but the Tory party gives me little choice. If the LibDems could pull their head out of their collective backside and offer some sort of salvation then I would vote for them but what are they offering? Nothing that I can see.
I do not give a d*mn about either of the big parties. What I want is for either of them to actually try running things properly instead of fannying around.I will tolerate my dislike if they are competent and doing good for the country, but a bunch of talentless twits I have no time for.
It is a pity that both main parties look useless. The system needs a shock to kickstart its balance.
To a certain extent, this is the same thing but the other way around. Brexit looks like it will upset many apple carts. Whilst personally I doubt that we will get a transformative result like we did under Mrs Thatcher, it is clear that the overall balance of the system needs disturbing. To use a well worn phrase we can only hope that "The long term gain justifies the short term pain" (It would be funny if the irony of deploying a Tory supporting slogan for Brexit was not so sharp).
I do not want to vote for Brexit, but the status quo gives me little choice. If the establishment could pull their head out of their collective backside and offer some sort of salvation then I would vote for them but what are they offering? Nothing that I can see.
Please think hard before voting for a party headed by Corbyn.
[Edit: I do not necessarily disagree with your "Brexit interpretation" of what I said. It is why I have come to believe that a hard Brexit must happen.]
Certainly I agree that after almost a decade of the Tories in power a more centrist Labour leader similar to Trudeau or Macron could be in for a while but Corbyn ensures the Tories are still very much in the game, as indeed in the short term at least does the Brexit vote
Good value loser, I think.
It was wrong, it was inappropriate and he should have apologised, but to bang on about a four year old remark? OK - so McDonnell appears to be happy to be seen as an insensitive berk. That is his problem.
Life is too short for this sort of stuff. Move on.
But all these things are part of democratic change, as Beverley suggests. People try one thing, then another. Parties respond in one way, then adjust. A situation where an exhausted party hangs on indefinitely on the basis of "but the others might be worse" is fundamentally unhealthy, not only for democracy but also for the parties in question. The Tories really need a period to think what they're about. Labour really needs to try some socialist government and either find it works or find it doesn't. Britain needs both to come up with credible long-term alternatives.
The gay marriage polling was a long way off but it doesn't neccesarily mean it will be again.
I do not support ANY of the main parties. None. Nada.
If you are upset with me because I do not slavishly devote myself to following the high mantra of the Tory Party.... well too darn bad.
Alternatively, he could look to the Conservatives for their support. After all, he has been sending his troops into the voting lobbies to vote with the Tories in most major divisions in this Parliament. Both Commons and Lords.
SNP allowing a Tory government in power is an SNP that never wants to be in power in Holyrood again.
Though if Corbyn does get in it will largely be on 'time for a change' as you suggest
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/john-mcdonnell-refuses-apologise-repeating-11888475.amp
Bloody PB Tories
A referendum would be granted too if the SNP were timid about their demands.
That would be the price and Corbo would pay it in a flash.
I think his main political ambition now is to be Mayor of London, he has given up on being PM or returning to Westminster so has little need now to bother himself with the provinces and their concerns
Fuck off
Not to mention the next general election in 2022 is due after the next Holyrood elections in 2021 where polls now predict a majority for the Unionist parties anyway
He has been asked to apologise and has refused. Why?
Life is not too short for this. Not calling out those who threaten women, women in public life, is quite quite wrong. Such women are at risk and I do not need to remind you that one was killed two years ago by the sort of berk who thought violence against political opponents was acceptable.
McDonnell has on other occasions praised the use of violence by those seeking to make a political point and I am not just referring to his support of the IRA.
If unpleasant sexist comments addressed to or about women are a no-no, I do not see why we should give a free pass to politicians who use, condone or refuse to condemn unpleasant violent comments about or addressed to women.
I voted, but only because Big Jim postponed his originally intended Autumn 1978 election until after my 18th birthday, he could have clung on until November 1979 but he lost a vote of no confidence early in the year.
As for fascists, this place is beginning to feel like it might have a few spare.
I'm done here
Thatcher even won under 30s in 1983
I'm slightly surprised that she is though. I would have had her down as a Lib Dem. I think the reason she may have attracted attention is that this is the first time, as far as I know, she has said she will or is likely to vote Labour.
Cutting noses etc....
Sorry. He “quoted a constituent” who said she should be lynched
Mrs C, I do hope you come back.
I've just been recommending PB to someone interested in politics - let's hope he doesn't think this is typical of how we carry on.
And I'd say the same if Southam voted Tory, or indeed if Roger voted UKIP. We've all got a right to move around if we want to, without too much shrill derision. We have an opinion until we have a different one - that's just how human beings are.