politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless LAB can win back Scotland then there’s little chance of

SystemSystem Posts: 12,256
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless LAB can win back Scotland then there’s little chance of Corbyn becoming PM

The biggest impact on the Labour-Conservative seat balance in the past decade was the virtual wipeout of LAB north of the border at GE2015.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,538
    First past the post!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Foxy said:

    First past the post!

    We'll need to check your nomination papers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    Still in third behind the tories? I am surprised. They could do it, or at least win back enough to get over the line, but if the SNP aren't falling back and the tories remain above them still, its still a stumbling block.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Hmm I disagree, with the exception of one or two Lab-Tory battles in Scotland it doesn't matter if the SNP or Labour win the seats. Both back Corbyn for PM.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,286
    'tis on a knife-edge, with so many seats held by a sliver
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm I disagree, with the exception of one or two Lab-Tory battles in Scotland it doesn't matter if the SNP or Labour win the seats. Both back Corbyn for PM.

    I agree. It only takes Labour to win 15 seats off the Conservatives in England and say hello to Prime Minister Corbyn.

    Indeed, were the SNP to resurge to their 2015 levels, Labour might only need to stand still in England and Wales.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    And today the SNP publish (their sat upon for a year) Growth Commission report:

    https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/999542806480859137
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,538
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm I disagree, with the exception of one or two Lab-Tory battles in Scotland it doesn't matter if the SNP or Labour win the seats. Both back Corbyn for PM.

    I agree. It only takes Labour to win 15 seats off the Conservatives in England and say hello to Prime Minister Corbyn.

    Indeed, were the SNP to resurge to their 2015 levels, Labour might only need to stand still in England and Wales.
    The Holyrood elections will be a major pointer, but I do suspect that the Scttish electorate are tiring of the SNP. In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    I disagree with the premise of this thread which assumes Corbyn needs an overall majority to become PM. He does not need a majority nor even to be leader of the largest party to become PM if he gets the backing of the SNP, Plaid, the LDs and the Greens and Cable is much less likely than Clegg was to prop up the Tories. See New Zealand last year where the Nationals won most seats but Labour leader Jacinda Ardern became PM with Green and New Zealand First support. Thus Cable could be our Winston Peters if the Tories fail to win a majority next time or have enough seats again to have a majority with the DUP.

    Thus 'Vote Sturgeon or Cable and get Corbyn', could well be a Tory slogan next time
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    Foxy said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm I disagree, with the exception of one or two Lab-Tory battles in Scotland it doesn't matter if the SNP or Labour win the seats. Both back Corbyn for PM.

    I agree. It only takes Labour to win 15 seats off the Conservatives in England and say hello to Prime Minister Corbyn.

    Indeed, were the SNP to resurge to their 2015 levels, Labour might only need to stand still in England and Wales.
    The Holyrood elections will be a major pointer, but I do suspect that the Scttish electorate are tiring of the SNP. In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.
    Usually, but there are rare places they don't, genetally. With FPTP, and depending on the churn in the fight to be second in Scotland, it might be that holding a lot of Westminster seats will be easier?

    Not easy to make predictions given the turnover up there
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,367
    Whoever takes seats from the Ruthie Party is good for Labour.

    I urge Labour supporters in Scotland to vote accordingly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    What price woukd labour be willing to pay for SNP backing? Presumably authorising another Sindy ref woukd be on the cards, although if the SNP remain dominant I expect one is coming arcs one stage no matter what.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Why does it matter?

    Surely the SNP prefer a Labourr government to a Tory one?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    SandyRentool said:

    Whoever takes seats from the Ruthie Party is good for Labour.

    I urge Labour supporters in Scotland to vote accordingly.

    I approve this message (unlike Kezia).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes, we need a change from a weak leader atop a divided party ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,321
    Anazina said:

    Why does it matter?

    Surely the SNP prefer a Labourr government to a Tory one?

    Nah. 1979 proves otherwise when the SNP became the midwife to Thatcherism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    edited May 2018
    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    From a personal point of view in Epping Forest a Corbyn minority government propped up by the LDs and SNP and the Greens would be ideal for local Tories but I also think it would be a disaster for the country so will try hard to avoid it
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    'Move on to GE2017 which proved to be something of a setback for Sturgeon’s party losing 21 seats and holding onto 35.'

    I'm disappointed that this has not been expressed as the SNP losing almost half their seats.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,717
    Anazina said:

    Why does it matter?

    Surely the SNP prefer a Labourr government to a Tory one?

    The SNP would prefer Labour, but they'd be unreliable supporters. It's better to have Labour MP's.
  • topherdawsontopherdawson Posts: 61
    The only way SLAB will recover in Scotland would be if they supported independence, or at least took no position on it. Significant numbers of their supporters support independence.
    Unionist voters have coalesced around the Tories, pulling support from the LD's and Labour. This effect has inflated the Tory vote to second; if independence was not the primary political issue in Scotland, Labour would naturally be above the Tories.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,321
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm I disagree, with the exception of one or two Lab-Tory battles in Scotland it doesn't matter if the SNP or Labour win the seats. Both back Corbyn for PM.

    I agree. It only takes Labour to win 15 seats off the Conservatives in England and say hello to Prime Minister Corbyn.

    Indeed, were the SNP to resurge to their 2015 levels, Labour might only need to stand still in England and Wales.
    I agree.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anazina said:

    Why does it matter?

    Surely the SNP prefer a Labourr government to a Tory one?

    Nah. 1979 proves otherwise when the SNP became the midwife to Thatcherism.
    They no confidenced Callaghan leading to a general election, they did not prop up Thatcher
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,717
    topherdawson said:

    The only way SLAB will recover in Scotland would be if they supported independence, or at least took no position on it. Significant numbers of their supporters support independence.
    Unionist voters have coalesced around the Tories, pulling support from the LD's and Labour. This effect has inflated the Tory vote to second; if independence was not the primary political issue in Scotland, Labour would naturally be above the Tories.

    Nothing would please the Scottish Conservatives more. They'd be chasing 55% of the voters, their rivals would be fighting over 45%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    FPT: Any timetable for the Irish results/exit polling?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2018
    "Alas".... obv meant to put "thank god"

    And Poch - 5 more years! Sorry Chelsea / TSE.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,321
    edited May 2018
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    "Alas".... obv meant to put "thank god"

    And Poch - 5 more years! Sorry Chelsea / TSE.

    Nah this is Levy ensuring he gets a bigger compensation package from Chelsea when Poch eventually does one.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,483
    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Why does it matter?

    Surely the SNP prefer a Labourr government to a Tory one?

    The SNP would prefer Labour, but they'd be unreliable supporters. It's better to have Labour MP's.
    Agreed, but in terms of the header, it's probably true that it doesn't matter for the purpose of forming the next Government. The SNP can't prop up a Tory government in 2022 without very serious voter impact.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,321
    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    But it will be the will of the people.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    Given the practical choices on offer, I suggest those appalled by both main parties use their vote so far as they can to secure the most paralysis in Parliament possible. Whoever gets their hands on the reins of power needs to do so in handcuffs.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anazina said:

    Why does it matter?

    Surely the SNP prefer a Labourr government to a Tory one?

    Nah. 1979 proves otherwise when the SNP became the midwife to Thatcherism.
    It must gall Thatcherites that they have to be grateful to the SNP, Liberals and a couple of Irish Nat abstentions for their moment in the sun. And of course that their 18 years of rule was the midwife of devolution and unending Nattery.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited May 2018
    FPT For what it's worth (probably not much) London works for me even as anywhere else* requires driving and somewhat dents the appeal of a night out with you fellow anoraks. :wink:

    (PS wheelchair access also a requirement for yours truly)

    (Edit: *Assuming Shaftesbury is not on the likely list of options haha!)
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    Marcelo at 4.1 to get booked in the Champions League final (betfair) looks value to me.
    Surely there'll be a moment where his best bet is to pull down Mo Salah rather than let him run.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,321
    edited May 2018
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anazina said:

    Why does it matter?

    Surely the SNP prefer a Labourr government to a Tory one?

    Nah. 1979 proves otherwise when the SNP became the midwife to Thatcherism.
    It must gall Thatcherites that they have to be grateful to the SNP, Liberals and a couple of Irish Nat abstentions for their moment in the sun. And of course that their 18 years of rule was the midwife of devolution and unending Nattery.
    I will always have a special fondness for the Irish Nat that travelled from Belfast to Westminster just so he could abstain in person in the no confidence vote.

    You can’t but class like that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    rkrkrk said:

    Marcelo at 4.1 to get booked in the Champions League final (betfair) looks value to me.
    Surely there'll be a moment where his best bet is to pull down Mo Salah rather than let him run.

    Is the referee known to be card happy - makes a big difference imo.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    But it will be the will of the people.
    Let's see if the Daily Mail still wants to abolish the HoL then, eh?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    Benpointer said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Marcelo at 4.1 to get booked in the Champions League final (betfair) looks value to me.
    Surely there'll be a moment where his best bet is to pull down Mo Salah rather than let him run.

    Is the referee known to be card happy - makes a big difference imo.
    13 yellows in 4 matches in CLeague group stage matches this year.
    19 in 4 matches the previous year.

    Finals do funny things to refs sometimes though I reckon. Some try to stamp their authority really early, while others let more stuff go because of the sense of the occasion.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Would they go in with the Conservatives and the DUP? Especially given in the circumstances the Conservatives would be on the slide.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    what would the alternative be? Another election?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited May 2018
    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Hmmm... would they prop up the Tories again? I doubt it. So what then is the alternative if not either a coalition with Labour (very unlikely) or a confidence and supply apprach to support a Labour minority government.

    There's a lot to be said for a LAB minority government... It would ensure a more measured step to the left, preventing some of the more extreme Momentum policies.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,483
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    Given the practical choices on offer, I suggest those appalled by both main parties use their vote so far as they can to secure the most paralysis in Parliament possible. Whoever gets their hands on the reins of power needs to do so in handcuffs.
    Sadly, as a result of May’s miscalculation last year, the marginal seat I am living in has been turned into a safe Labour seat. My vote is pointless. The only practical thing I can do is try and insulate me and mine from the consequences of Brexit and Corbyn.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    The only scenario I can see the Lib Dems supporting either of the two main parties is if there's a pre-Brexit election and Corbyn offers a second referendum. In that case, the LDs might go for confidence & supply.

    But that ain't gonna happen. Nor is the LDs becoming the largest party, obviously. So adjust the electoral arithmetic accordingly.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    They'd probably get a decent number of Labour MPs who were interested in such a deal.
    But yes - absolute outrage likely to be the result.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    But you're not disputing that the SNP would back Labour?

    In which case Labour 277 + SNP 31 = 308.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    If nothing else, the ‘Grope for Credibility Commission’ is a masterclass in using the hypothetical to divert attention from the actual. So let me invite consideration of another document published this week which is of infinitely more relevance to the lives of the non-chattering classes.

    The report I refer to has been produced by the Scottish Parliament’s Information Centre (SPICe) in response to an important question which has long demanded a definitive answer. How has the Scottish Government treated local authority finances relative to changes in its own budget in recent years?

    The answer is pretty devastating.....In real terms, the research confirms, the local government revenue settlement decreased at a far faster rate (minus 7.1 per cent) than the Scottish Government’s (minus 1.3 per cent). This means that councils have suffered £744.7 million of cuts in revenue – £200 million more than the entire reduction in the Scottish Government’s own budget. Far from protecting local services from the icy blast, the Nationalists have made them their whipping boy.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/brian-wilson-poor-kids-and-pensioners-bear-brunt-of-snp-austerity-1-4744450
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,717
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Would they go in with the Conservatives and the DUP? Especially given in the circumstances the Conservatives would be on the slide.
    They would probably not go in with either.

    That leaves 317 pro-Corbyn MP's to 312 anti-Corbyn MP's. Corbyn would become PM, but his government would be very vulnerable to defeats.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Would they go in with the Conservatives and the DUP? Especially given in the circumstances the Conservatives would be on the slide.
    Confidence and supply?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Jenny Tonge would be a fan, surely?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    They do not need to do another coalition deal, just confidence and supply from the LDs would be enough for Corbyn to become PM
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    A very intriguing thought. I doubt the LDs alone would have the muscle to do that, but if they clubbed together with the SNP, maybe together they could force it through. I suspect Corbyn would agree to step aside provided he felt Labour's key policies would get through.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT: Any timetable for the Irish results/exit polling?

    The count is tomorrow
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    El_Capitano said:

    The only scenario I can see the Lib Dems supporting either of the two main parties is if there's a pre-Brexit election and Corbyn offers a second referendum. In that case, the LDs might go for confidence & supply.

    But that ain't gonna happen. Nor is the LDs becoming the largest party, obviously. So adjust the electoral arithmetic accordingly.

    Possible they might be tempted by an EEA deal/very soft Brexit?
    Must admit, I don't really understand why the Lib Dems want to gamble all the marbles on winning a 2nd referendum.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    They do not need to do another coalition deal, just confidence and supply from the LDs would be enough for Corbyn to become PM
    With those numbers for the Lib Dems would not give confidence and supply
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    I do not like the potential scenario, but neither do I like the current puppet govt lurching around in fear of a few dozen xenophobic right wing loons in their own ranks.

    Corbyn is a potential screw up. The current govt is s proven screwup.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    A very intriguing thought. I doubt the LDs alone would have the muscle to do that, but if they clubbed together with the SNP, maybe together they could force it through. I suspect Corbyn would agree to step aside provided he felt Labour's key policies would get through.
    Corbyn voluntarily stepping aside following what would surely look + feel like a victory would be an incredible gesture, I doubt it would happen though. Anyone he'd be keen to step aside for would presumably be just as unpalatable to the Lib Dems.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    A useful first gambit which would be rejected by Labour. Remaining in the customs union and perhaps single market (If we're still in a transitional form of either by then) would be the price to pay for confidence and support.
    I doubt the deal would be as strong as the current DUP-Tory one and the Gov't would be frequently defeated.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Mr. HYUFD, cheers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    A very intriguing thought. I doubt the LDs alone would have the muscle to do that, but if they clubbed together with the SNP, maybe together they could force it through. I suspect Corbyn would agree to step aside provided he felt Labour's key policies would get through.
    If the Lib Dems said they would no-confidence any government that in their view would be headed by a Prime Minister who did not enjoy the support of the majority in the House of Commons, they would probably get their way unless the Conservatives or the DUP decided strategically to abstain. It's not obvious why they would, especially as the wars within the Labour party would be titanic.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    edited May 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anazina said:

    Why does it matter?

    Surely the SNP prefer a Labourr government to a Tory one?

    Nah. 1979 proves otherwise when the SNP became the midwife to Thatcherism.
    It must gall Thatcherites that they have to be grateful to the SNP, Liberals and a couple of Irish Nat abstentions for their moment in the sun. And of course that their 18 years of rule was the midwife of devolution and unending Nattery.
    I will always have a special fondness for the Irish Nat that travelled from Belfast to Westminster just so he could abstain in person in the no confidence vote.

    You can’t but class like that.
    I also think the Sir Alfred Broughton - Bernard Weatherill episode was pretty classy. I fear that they don't make them like that any more.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    Given the practical choices on offer, I suggest those appalled by both main parties use their vote so far as they can to secure the most paralysis in Parliament possible. Whoever gets their hands on the reins of power needs to do so in handcuffs.
    Sadly, as a result of May’s miscalculation last year, the marginal seat I am living in has been turned into a safe Labour seat. My vote is pointless. The only practical thing I can do is try and insulate me and mine from the consequences of Brexit and Corbyn.
    ...which is an impossible aspiration because you really don't know how it will affect you.

    If your seat was recently marginal, I don't see how you can consider your vote a wasted one. The seat clearly has the chance to become marginal and therefore switch parties again in the future. Try living in North Dorset if you want to feel your vote is wasted!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    Of course, one possibility we're not taking into account is that the parties might fracture post-Brexit. I wouldn't entirely rule out a centrist coalition "for the national interest".

    Cable for next PM is a very big stretch, but at 100/1 it's tempting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,321
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    A very intriguing thought. I doubt the LDs alone would have the muscle to do that, but if they clubbed together with the SNP, maybe together they could force it through. I suspect Corbyn would agree to step aside provided he felt Labour's key policies would get through.
    If the Lib Dems said they would no-confidence any government that in their view would be headed by a Prime Minister who did not enjoy the support of the majority in the House of Commons, they would probably get their way unless the Conservatives or the DUP decided strategically to abstain. It's not obvious why they would, especially as the wars within the Labour party would be titanic.
    Is this how David Miliband becomes next PM?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    They do not need to do another coalition deal, just confidence and supply from the LDs would be enough for Corbyn to become PM
    With those numbers for the Lib Dems would not give confidence and supply
    The unfortunate part is that it is a narrow target in terms of result for us to test the theorem. Obviously all parties are in a very different place to the Clegg-Cameron days.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited May 2018
    El_Capitano said:

    Of course, one possibility we're not taking into account is that the parties might fracture post-Brexit. I wouldn't entirely rule out a centrist coalition "for the national interest".

    Cable for next PM is a very big stretch, but at 100/1 it's tempting.

    FFS how ridiculous! You'll be suggesting Trump could become POTUS next! :smile:

    (Though to be fair to Uncle Vince, whilst both posibilities seem(ed) extremely unlikely, that's where the similarities end - one is a nightmare; PM Cable would be... interesting. He surely couldn't be worse than the present incumbent or the LOTO?)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    But it will be the will of the people.
    yes. It will be an exercise of that sovereignty we don't have because of the EU
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    But you're not disputing that the SNP would back Labour?

    In which case Labour 277 + SNP 31 = 308.
    Given that the Conservatives are soaring in Scotland I think the SNP will be more guarded about doing a deal with labour so I wouldn't take that as a certainty. In fact I think it probably wouldn't happen. Another factor is that the Lib Dems currently have no serious targets from labour seats
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    I wonder how many Labour MPs would in practice support a Corbyn govt 100%. I also see a couple of Tory gains as being as likely as any losses next time. It's by no means sure that Labour will make net gains either. One thing I suspect the voters could well punish any party which precipitated a GE
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    They do not need to do another coalition deal, just confidence and supply from the LDs would be enough for Corbyn to become PM
    With those numbers for the Lib Dems would not give confidence and supply
    To whom?

    All they'd have to do is abstain and Corbyn becomes PM.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    A very intriguing thought. I doubt the LDs alone would have the muscle to do that, but if they clubbed together with the SNP, maybe together they could force it through. I suspect Corbyn would agree to step aside provided he felt Labour's key policies would get through.
    If the Lib Dems said they would no-confidence any government that in their view would be headed by a Prime Minister who did not enjoy the support of the majority in the House of Commons, they would probably get their way unless the Conservatives or the DUP decided strategically to abstain. It's not obvious why they would, especially as the wars within the Labour party would be titanic.
    Is this how David Miliband becomes next PM?
    Wrong Miliband. #200/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    MikeSmithson said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    But you're not disputing that the SNP would back Labour?

    In which case Labour 277 + SNP 31 = 308.
    Given that the Conservatives are soaring in Scotland I think the SNP will be more guarded about doing a deal with labour so I wouldn't take that as a certainty. In fact I think it probably wouldn't happen. Another factor is that the Lib Dems currently have no serious targets from labour seats
    Are you ruling out LD Gain Sheffield Hallam. Given Labour's brexit position, the local elections and the embarrasment of an MP I think a very good chance of a Lib Dem gain there.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,717
    Benpointer said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    Given the practical choices on offer, I suggest those appalled by both main parties use their vote so far as they can to secure the most paralysis in Parliament possible. Whoever gets their hands on the reins of power needs to do so in handcuffs.
    Sadly, as a result of May’s miscalculation last year, the marginal seat I am living in has been turned into a safe Labour seat. My vote is pointless. The only practical thing I can do is try and insulate me and mine from the consequences of Brexit and Corbyn.
    ...which is an impossible aspiration because you really don't know how it will affect you.

    If your seat was recently marginal, I don't see how you can consider your vote a wasted one. The seat clearly has the chance to become marginal and therefore switch parties again in the future. Try living in North Dorset if you want to feel your vote is wasted!
    North Dorset was once fairly marginal (a Liberal seat at one point)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    felix said:

    I wonder how many Labour MPs would in practice support a Corbyn govt 100%.

    Push and shove at the Queen's speech ?

    All of them. Including Woodcock.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,321
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anazina said:

    Why does it matter?

    Surely the SNP prefer a Labourr government to a Tory one?

    Nah. 1979 proves otherwise when the SNP became the midwife to Thatcherism.
    It must gall Thatcherites that they have to be grateful to the SNP, Liberals and a couple of Irish Nat abstentions for their moment in the sun. And of course that their 18 years of rule was the midwife of devolution and unending Nattery.
    I will always have a special fondness for the Irish Nat that travelled from Belfast to Westminster just so he could abstain in person in the no confidence vote.

    You can’t but class like that.
    I also think the Sir Alfred Broughton - Bernard Weatherill episode was pretty classy. I fear that they don't make them like that any more.
    Very true. Very honourable mention to Walter Harrison in that episode too.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    rkrkrk said:

    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    A very intriguing thought. I doubt the LDs alone would have the muscle to do that, but if they clubbed together with the SNP, maybe together they could force it through. I suspect Corbyn would agree to step aside provided he felt Labour's key policies would get through.
    Corbyn voluntarily stepping aside following what would surely look + feel like a victory would be an incredible gesture, I doubt it would happen though. Anyone he'd be keen to step aside for would presumably be just as unpalatable to the Lib Dems.
    Indeed. Brown's time was up becuase he looked like a loser after losing a majority. Corbyn would be in a much stronger position having 'won', and probably willing to go to the people in another election rather than being seen to be weak to Lib Dem demands.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    A very intriguing thought. I doubt the LDs alone would have the muscle to do that, but if they clubbed together with the SNP, maybe together they could force it through. I suspect Corbyn would agree to step aside provided he felt Labour's key policies would get through.
    If the Lib Dems said they would no-confidence any government that in their view would be headed by a Prime Minister who did not enjoy the support of the majority in the House of Commons, they would probably get their way unless the Conservatives or the DUP decided strategically to abstain. It's not obvious why they would, especially as the wars within the Labour party would be titanic.
    Is this how David Miliband becomes next PM?
    Wrong Miliband. #200/1
    Steve's time is coming.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited May 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    Given the practical choices on offer, I suggest those appalled by both main parties use their vote so far as they can to secure the most paralysis in Parliament possible. Whoever gets their hands on the reins of power needs to do so in handcuffs.
    Sadly, as a result of May’s miscalculation last year, the marginal seat I am living in has been turned into a safe Labour seat. My vote is pointless. The only practical thing I can do is try and insulate me and mine from the consequences of Brexit and Corbyn.
    ...which is an impossible aspiration because you really don't know how it will affect you.

    If your seat was recently marginal, I don't see how you can consider your vote a wasted one. The seat clearly has the chance to become marginal and therefore switch parties again in the future. Try living in North Dorset if you want to feel your vote is wasted!
    North Dorset was once fairly marginal (a Liberal seat at one point)
    Fair point - hoisted by my own petard! I'll carry-on voting anyone-but-Tory then. :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    edited May 2018
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    They do not need to do another coalition deal, just confidence and supply from the LDs would be enough for Corbyn to become PM
    With those numbers for the Lib Dems would not give confidence and supply
    Even LD abstentions could make Corbyn PM if Labour + SNP +Plaid +Green>Tory+DUP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. HYUFD, cheers.

    Thanks
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Slackbladder said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    A very intriguing thought. I doubt the LDs alone would have the muscle to do that, but if they clubbed together with the SNP, maybe together they could force it through. I suspect Corbyn would agree to step aside provided he felt Labour's key policies would get through.
    Corbyn voluntarily stepping aside following what would surely look + feel like a victory would be an incredible gesture, I doubt it would happen though. Anyone he'd be keen to step aside for would presumably be just as unpalatable to the Lib Dems.
    Indeed. Brown's time was up becuase he looked like a loser after losing a majority. Corbyn would be in a much stronger position having 'won', and probably willing to go to the people in another election rather than being seen to be weak to Lib Dem demands.

    He wouldn't necessarily get the choice, given how the Fixed Term Parliaments Act works.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    My vote won't matter at the next GE, but I suspect Bassetlaw will be a marginal in the 2030s. Alot of new housing going up in Harworth and other places which should change the demographics away from Labour a bit.
    We'll also have to wait for the inevitable post 2032 tricky Labour GE slump.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Slackbladder said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    A very intriguing thought. I doubt the LDs alone would have the muscle to do that, but if they clubbed together with the SNP, maybe together they could force it through. I suspect Corbyn would agree to step aside provided he felt Labour's key policies would get through.
    Corbyn voluntarily stepping aside following what would surely look + feel like a victory would be an incredible gesture, I doubt it would happen though. Anyone he'd be keen to step aside for would presumably be just as unpalatable to the Lib Dems.
    Indeed. Brown's time was up becuase he looked like a loser after losing a majority. Corbyn would be in a much stronger position having 'won', and probably willing to go to the people in another election rather than being seen to be weak to Lib Dem demands.

    I think Layla Moran's team will realise that and ultimately settle for something substantial on european policy (Which I think Labour will yield) at which point she'll give the nod at the QS.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/999924169545474048
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    UK GDP growth unchanged at 0.1%

    The Office for National Statistics says that GDP growth remained at 0.1% in the first quarter in its second estimate of economic activity.

    It is the slowest growth since 2012    #

    No upward estimate.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/999924169545474048

    Just what have they spiked the oranges with if everyone is going to end up dead?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Gutted to know I could have bought the whole business rather than some wood filler last time I went to Homebase for a quid.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Pulpstar said:

    Gutted to know I could have bought the whole business rather than some wood filler last time I went to Homebase for a quid.

    You'd still have had to queue at the tills.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,483
    Beverley_C said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    I do not like the potential scenario, but neither do I like the current puppet govt lurching around in fear of a few dozen xenophobic right wing loons in their own ranks.

    Corbyn is a potential screw up. The current govt is s proven screwup.
    Corbyn is a proven screw up. His reaction to the Skripal poisoning, Assad using chemical weapons and anti-semitism in his party show that. Having him in charge will make post-Brexit Britain very much worse than it might otherwise be. Abolishing capitalism for socialism, as his Chancellor recently reiterated was his aim, is actively malicious and deeply damaging to my childrens’ futures.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One for @Another_Richard:

    https://www.wikitribune.com/story/2017/12/01/business/uks-farming-industry-in-jeopardy-without-access-to-access-to-eu-labor/25501/
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Pulpstar said:

    Gutted to know I could have bought the whole business rather than some wood filler last time I went to Homebase for a quid.

    It stocks nothing worth buying. It really is dreadful.

    The Australian buyer only took it over last year. Things must be worse than they appear.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2018
    There's more...

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/999930902632456193

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,321
    edited May 2018
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/999924169545474048

    Just what have they spiked the oranges with if everyone is going to end up dead?
    A question that only the late Stephen Milligan could answer ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Slackbladder said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    It is classic Lynton Crosby scare Tactics from some of the Tories on this thread to suggest that Labour only needs to take 15 seats from the Conservatives to ensure that Corbyn becomes p.m. That would make it CON 303 seats to Labour 277. In these circumstances I doubt if the Lib Dems would go in with labour particularly one led by Jeremy Corbyn with all his issues relating to anti-semitism and brexit

    Of course, in 2010 the Lib Dems made it a condition of their discussions with Labour that Gordon Brown would not remain as Prime Minister. Might the Lib Dems similarly make it a condition of discussions with Labour in such a hung Parliament that a Prime Minister acceptable to a majority in Parliament be found?

    Just IMAGINE the reaction of the Corbynites...
    A very intriguing thought. I doubt the LDs alone would have the muscle to do that, but if they clubbed together with the SNP, maybe together they could force it through. I suspect Corbyn would agree to step aside provided he felt Labour's key policies would get through.
    Corbyn voluntarily stepping aside following what would surely look + feel like a victory would be an incredible gesture, I doubt it would happen though. Anyone he'd be keen to step aside for would presumably be just as unpalatable to the Lib Dems.
    Indeed. Brown's time was up becuase he looked like a loser after losing a majority. Corbyn would be in a much stronger position having 'won', and probably willing to go to the people in another election rather than being seen to be weak to Lib Dem demands.

    He wouldn't necessarily get the choice, given how the Fixed Term Parliaments Act works.
    Wouldn't a vote of no-confidence work?

    Depends how it falls out. We have a GE, May well, well short of a majority, and resigns. Tory's can't form government, Queenie goes to Corbyn who says no, we'll have another election, and we will vote for the that in the COE.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/999924169545474048

    Just what have they spiked the oranges with if everyone is going to end up dead?
    Whatever it is, it'll be military grade.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Pulpstar said:

    UK GDP growth unchanged at 0.1%

    The Office for National Statistics says that GDP growth remained at 0.1% in the first quarter in its second estimate of economic activity.

    It is the slowest growth since 2012    #

    No upward estimate.

    So basically, stagnation. This is why Labour will win the next GE.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,483
    Benpointer said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    Given the practical choices on offer, I suggest those appalled by both main parties use their vote so far as they can to secure the most paralysis in Parliament possible. Whoever gets their hands on the reins of power needs to do so in handcuffs.
    Sadly, as a result of May’s miscalculation last year, the marginal seat I am living in has been turned into a safe Labour seat. My vote is pointless. The only practical thing I can do is try and insulate me and mine from the consequences of Brexit and Corbyn.
    ...which is an impossible aspiration because you really don't know how it will affect you.

    If your seat was recently marginal, I don't see how you can consider your vote a wasted one. The seat clearly has the chance to become marginal and therefore switch parties again in the future. Try living in North Dorset if you want to feel your vote is wasted!
    I can make some educated guesses. I can take seriously what Corbyn and McDonnell say about their economic plans and make plans of my own. I have already started on that process.

    Until last year, where I live was a three-way marginal with barely 1000 votes between the top 3 parties. Now Labour has a 10,000 vote majority. I am not really inclined to vote Tory. But any other vote is utterly wasted.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Beverley_C said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gutted to know I could have bought the whole business rather than some wood filler last time I went to Homebase for a quid.

    It stocks nothing worth buying. It really is dreadful.

    The Australian buyer only took it over last year. Things must be worse than they appear.
    It does, but its all a bit expensive. I wonder how Wickes is doing ?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Foxy said:

    In the end, voters usually want to give the other side a go after a bit.

    I have reached that point myself. Time to vote for Corbyn.
    Yes: a pro-Russian anti-semitic government is exactly what we need to draw the poison of Brexit.........
    I do not like the potential scenario, but neither do I like the current puppet govt lurching around in fear of a few dozen xenophobic right wing loons in their own ranks.

    Corbyn is a potential screw up. The current govt is s proven screwup.
    Corbyn is a proven screw up. His reaction to the Skripal poisoning, Assad using chemical weapons and anti-semitism in his party show that. Having him in charge will make post-Brexit Britain very much worse than it might otherwise be. Abolishing capitalism for socialism, as his Chancellor recently reiterated was his aim, is actively malicious and deeply damaging to my childrens’ futures.
    There are no good choices here. Personally, I will no longer tolerate the current government. The system needs a good shake up for its own good even though it will be painful. The current government is already damaging everyone's future including my children's - I will not endorse such a shower by voting for them.

    That only leaves one choice however distasteful
This discussion has been closed.