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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Pulpstar says the Tories look value at 13-8 in the Lewisham match bet
Anyone for a couple of Lewisham East match bets? #LewishamEastByElection
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5759969/Poll-reveals-voters-think-House-Lords-outdated-touch-wrong-thwart-Brexit.html
I guess ComRes balked at asking if the 'Traitorous swine Lords should be strung up from Lamposts'....
Remember that LAB has a piss poor record defending by-elections. Copeland last year was the first occasion since 1982 that a governing party took a seat from the main opposition in a by-election. Since the referendum (with the exception of Jo Cox's seat where CON and LD didn't stand) LAB has lost vote share in every by-election.
Bless.
The question is what would have caused such explosions in the wing tip and fuselage? I doubt it could be a fuel explosion, so was it anti-air missiles, or would simple RPGs work when the plane was at such low height?
The problem Russia faces is that their behaviour has been so abhorrent that it's perfectly possible to believe they would do this sort of sh*t.
This sort of thing will not play well with the Great British Public. A question is whether this story has come directly from the Boris camp; if not, who has leaked it?
The airlines have invested heavily in training this perfectly natural tendency out of pilots -because it kills people.
We are directly involved in that MOD scientists are testing for explosives for the Poles: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/27/mod-experts-investigate-polish-leaders-plane-crash-blamed-russian/
I've just been reading the history of 'Old Glory'. It's quite fascinating:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Glory
The political case, however, is much more difficult - most people see such things as unnecessarily extravagant.
The RAF Voyager VIP conversion was a very elegant solution to the problem, take an existing air tanker / troop carrier and put a few biz class seats at the front, at a marginal cost of only a couple of million. That said, if Boris is going to continue to charter planes for his foreign trips, let’s make sure they’re made by Airbus and are in BA colours.
Quite persuasive. Put a small sum on yesterday (think it was Mr. (Miss?) Blue who raised it at the time).
Though the real significance is what the Poles believe.
Agree Raikkonen is great value for pole, as is Ricciardo.
Now a different sort of Scot is showing that generations are shrinking rapidly!
Dusted myself off, showed everyone the CCTV footage of me slumped and gargling, and then had some water and went on the run.
Weird. Maybe I need a holiday.
I’m going to take a serious look at this.
Whether we like it or not, it was a massive enabler of British projection abroad and paid for itself a thousand times over, it was the best value marketing spend the UK ever made.
Edit: and while on the subject of boats, the QE2 hotel has just opened after its refit in Dubai.
https://www.qe2.com
Certainly the investigation does not seem as thorough as the Dutch ones into MH17, but like MH17, the Russians and their agents have not proved too helpful to the investigation.
They have already built facilities to allow them to import US and presumably ME gas but they still get significant quantities from Russia, maybe 35% of their energy use. I expect to see them improving their alternative supplies even further which may well have significant implications well beyond Poland. If the EU as a whole starts to wean itself off Russian energy supplies the consequences for Russia could be pretty catastrophic.
Something like "This plane costs £X a week. Let's spend it on the NHS instead..."
Perhaps it’s now sellable to the public.
Agree on Ricciardo. I was looking at backing the Red Bulls early, but the odds fell off a bit and I think Raikkonen's longer odds presents more value.
I think it is 6-4 now
A glance at trade figures shows no precipitous drop when the yacht was decommissioned. From 1998-2008 our exports doubled.
At running costs of around 10m/year back then, for your thousand fold claim to be true - there would have to have been 10bn of value/year created from that yacht.
This idea will not sell well to the public.
They will still lose by miles of course. But they need to show that they are still players. Bye elections are less common these days and even a pretty pathetic opportunity like this needs to be seized.
EU approval at highest level for years - 75% in Germany
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article176597206/Umfrage-zur-EU-Rekordhoch-bei-Zustimmung-Brexit-fuehrt-zum-Weckruf.html
And given his performance as FS so far, and the staggering number of trade deals signed, he should get ...
a donkey.
It also needed more crew than a T45!
Also, it goes without saying that, Boris can fuck right off with his Brexit Express jet idea.
But the case for the royal yacht rests upon the idea that trade deals are signed which would not otherwise have been signed unless there was a yacht and a big party. If said deals would have been signed anyway - then the yacht did not contribute.
So yes - they are arguing that all that is missing for big new deals is a yacht.
Yes of course you have to do a lot more than just go to a party, but it provides a focal point for the discussions.
As an example, a lot of people with “New Money” in places like the Middle East and China are very careful about how they spend it. They look to build relationships before doing deals, and they can often prevaricate for months or even years before they actually sign a contract. An event at which the contract can be presented is a big lever to get them to the point that they’re ready to sign it, and in their mind shows commitment from their partner.
They also love access to people such as ministers and royalty, and the feeling of prestige that brings. It’s how they work, and if you want to do business with them then you have to play their game.
Boris's days in FCO are numbered, even if they did buy him a plane, he would be out before he could travel in it
To put that into another perspective- in 2016, the UK won 5.9bn GBP of defence export orders. You think the royal yacht alone is worth approximately 3x the value to Britain's exports as our entire defence industry.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-defence-and-security-export-figures-2016/uk-defence-and-security-export-statistics-for-2016
I posted this on the last thread, but thought everybody should be forced able to watch this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cot_Uvc7ZbA
It's me talking about whether US Airlines are a Good (or Bad) investment proposition.
Please watch, and then hit the subscribe button.
Thanks
The Tories have been second to Labour in Lewisham East far more than the LDs and indeed the Tories won the seat in 1983 to 1987 in the two Thatcher general election landslides of that decade.
As you say Lewisham East was over a third Leave at the EU referendum and the Labour candidate in Lewisham East is much more Europhile than Kate Hoey was so there is less room for the LDs to campaign on a 'Stop Brexit' platform
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/998250954410594304
I'm even old enough to remember when Scottish pols said no to indy was the way to guarantee EU membership.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/821335361003646976
https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/824908789128249344
Life comes at you fast.
Brexit without new immigration controls and leaving free movement in place for most Leave voters, especially working class Leave voters, would be no Brexit at all. Staying in the Customs Union but not being able to do our own trade deals would be just about sellable to all but the most ideological Brexiteers but staying in the Single Market with free movement continuing would not.
The only possible exception to that is if somehow we could stay in the Single Market but with new controls on free movement for the UK to reflect the transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 the EU allowed us to have for 7 years but Blair refused to take
SLAB got all they deserved after decades of venal incompetence - lets see what the 'SNP Growth Commission' come up with. Meanwhile, the challenges Ms Sturgeon faces:
https://stephendaisley.com/2018/05/19/sturgeon-under-siege/
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports/survey
I’m not saying that a yacht is the only reason all these deals happen, but as a marketing tool and facilitator of trade there’s never been anything better.
As Mr Ace notes, the old yacht was long overdue for decommissioning when she finally finished her touring of the seas. If we are going to show that Britain is a global trading nation we could do a lot worse than hurry up Britannia’s replacement.
While I think the UK can set up more advantageous trade deals that will require ability and time and trying to set them up while having a shortage of both will lead to worse terms of trade than present.
That some Leavers think that not letting Liam Fox loose on the world is such a terrible sovereignty restriction that they're willing to concede control of UK immigration to the EU is beyond bizarre.
She is basically a pro EU social democrat who happens to be in a nationalist party rather than a MalcG style Scottish nationalist for whom the battle for independence from the oppressive English is the be all and end all. Salmond was more in the latter category.
It’s not just low-cost pizza. Sturgeon’s government wants to crack down on advertising for fatty and salty foods and to extend taxes on sugary drinks. At least Margaret Thatcher only took our milk. Sturgeon wants to empty the entire fridge.
Somehow, Saint Nicola of the Sacred Selfie has turned into Supernanny Sturgeon, a finger-wagging, eyebrow-raising, tut-tutting interferer. Where once thousands packed into concert halls to hang on her every word, now they just want her to give it a rest.
We don’t have a First Minister so much as the human equivalent of a self-service checkout: ‘Do you know how much sugar is in that cake? Do you really need that second G&T? Did you not see the half-price offer on peas and carrots?’
https://stephendaisley.com/2018/05/21/thatcher-took-our-milk-nanny-nicola-wants-to-empty-your-entire-fridge/
It is true that Labour has lost vote share in each of them, from 2.2% (Witney, Stoke on Trent Central) to 8.67% (Richmond Park), with an average loss of 5%.
In Lewisham East they start from 67%. They would have to lose double the vote share they did in Richmond Park (the worst of their post-referendum performances) to even dip below 50%.
Their record may be poor, but they've got a huge cushion, and can afford to have a very very very poor result and still win at a canter. Not impossible, but would take a pre-Coalition-type LD by-election swing.
In other words, half-out/half-in, and no longer part of the EU political project. But, that looser sort of associate membership probably isn’t on offer, so there will need to be a compromise.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/712166/Bringing-Royal-yacht-Britannia-back-could-secure-billions-of-pounds-trade-deals .