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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The early money goes on the LDs in Lewisham East

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,951
    TOPPING said:


    “Lies”

    Desperate stuff, Dicky.

    You claimed I had blamed the EU for the current mess. I haven't. I have blamed May for most of it. So you lied.

    You claimed I wanted a tailor made fantasy Brexit when I have been clear all along I wanted the EEA solution. So again you lied.

    Man up Topping and admit you are too dumb to play these games.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    kle4 said:

    Elliot said:

    Um. Come on, PB.
    I had to go onto the Guardian to confirm the Lords *had* voted to stay in the EEA, despite a whipping operation by both the Tories and Labour.

    I actually presumed the forces of evilBrexiters would carry the day on this one.

    Have the Tories now completely given up any pretence at managing the Lords?

    The Lords is completely unrepresentative because the Lib Dems have so many lifetime appointments due to a brief period of popularity. No advocate of fairness can possibly justify its composition and resulting huge Europhile bias.

    At least it makes clear how elitism is still at the heart of Remainism.
    There are 782 members of the Lords of which 98 are LDs so your assertion is not correct. On PB it is best to check statements for their factual accuracy before posting.
    Nah, I just add 'apparently' to any statements, that way I'm covered if I am wrong. Or just go full Sir Humphrey with 'understanding' things to be true.
    The LibDems have 12.5% of Lords and won 7.4% of the vote last time. Arguably more disproportionate because 782 includes crossbenchers
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    Elliot said:

    Um. Come on, PB.
    I had to go onto the Guardian to confirm the Lords *had* voted to stay in the EEA, despite a whipping operation by both the Tories and Labour.

    I actually presumed the forces of evilBrexiters would carry the day on this one.

    Have the Tories now completely given up any pretence at managing the Lords?

    The Lords is completely unrepresentative because the Lib Dems have so many lifetime appointments due to a brief period of popularity. No advocate of fairness can possibly justify its composition and resulting huge Europhile bias.

    At least it makes clear how elitism is still at the heart of Remainism.
    Did you know the LDs only have 12.5% rep in the Lords?
    Looks like they were the only party to demonstrate unity in the EEA vote...
    image
    That's far closer, presumably to the Labour instruction to abstain.

    Poor Government whipping though. They should have been able to muster 230-235 against that. Looks like they were ambushed a bit.
    Or maybe many Tories in the HoL have more sense than you give them credit for :smile:
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    Scott_P said:
    Is that one more for the list of things Theresa May did not think through?
    Unless she’s a political genius who’s been playing the long game for Remain and mapped out all the ways she could ensure Brexit gets trapped in the long grass.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,358
    OTOH, the Commons is still voting to reject Lords amendments on Brexit legislation: 306 to 278 on Lords amendment on Nuclear Safeguards Bill.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,248

    Scott_P said:
    Is that one more for the list of things Theresa May did not think through?
    Unless she’s a political genius
    If she is she hides it bloody well.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    Repmain!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Elliot said:

    Um. Come on, PB.
    I had to go onto the Guardian to confirm the Lords *had* voted to stay in the EEA, despite a whipping operation by both the Tories and Labour.

    I actually presumed the forces of evilBrexiters would carry the day on this one.

    Have the Tories now completely given up any pretence at managing the Lords?

    The Lords is completely unrepresentative because the Lib Dems have so many lifetime appointments due to a brief period of popularity. No advocate of fairness can possibly justify its composition and resulting huge Europhile bias.

    At least it makes clear how elitism is still at the heart of Remainism.
    There are 782 members of the Lords of which 98 are LDs so your assertion is not correct. On PB it is best to check statements for their factual accuracy before posting.
    Fact-check: The UK is the only country with an Upper House consisting of more members than its Lower House.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is that one more for the list of things Theresa May did not think through?
    Unless she’s a political genius
    If she is she hides it bloody well.
    She understands the importance of being underestimated. ;)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,248

    Elliot said:

    Um. Come on, PB.
    I had to go onto the Guardian to confirm the Lords *had* voted to stay in the EEA, despite a whipping operation by both the Tories and Labour.

    I actually presumed the forces of evilBrexiters would carry the day on this one.

    Have the Tories now completely given up any pretence at managing the Lords?

    The Lords is completely unrepresentative because the Lib Dems have so many lifetime appointments due to a brief period of popularity. No advocate of fairness can possibly justify its composition and resulting huge Europhile bias.

    At least it makes clear how elitism is still at the heart of Remainism.
    There are 782 members of the Lords of which 98 are LDs so your assertion is not correct. On PB it is best to check statements for their factual accuracy before posting.
    Fact-check: The UK is the only country with an Upper House consisting of more members than its Lower House.
    There are plenty of colossal members in the Lower House though. For example, does Watson count double for being an MP and a dick?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,358

    Elliot said:

    Um. Come on, PB.
    I had to go onto the Guardian to confirm the Lords *had* voted to stay in the EEA, despite a whipping operation by both the Tories and Labour.

    I actually presumed the forces of evilBrexiters would carry the day on this one.

    Have the Tories now completely given up any pretence at managing the Lords?

    The Lords is completely unrepresentative because the Lib Dems have so many lifetime appointments due to a brief period of popularity. No advocate of fairness can possibly justify its composition and resulting huge Europhile bias.

    At least it makes clear how elitism is still at the heart of Remainism.
    Did you know the LDs only have 12.5% rep in the Lords?
    Looks like they were the only party to demonstrate unity in the EEA vote...
    image
    That's far closer, presumably to the Labour instruction to abstain.

    Poor Government whipping though. They should have been able to muster 230-235 against that. Looks like they were ambushed a bit.
    Or maybe many Tories in the HoL have more sense than you give them credit for :smile:
    Some certainly disagree with me very strongly.
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,819
    AndyJS said:

    I'd definitely back the LDs in Lewisham East. Most Tories will vote for them because they know they can't win the seat these days as they could in the 1980s.

    I've put a tenner on, and got an "odds boost" to 14/1.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    Repmain!

    Lots of salesmen in Lewisham apparently. :wink:
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,855


    The LibDems have 12.5% of Lords and won 7.4% of the vote last time. Arguably more disproportionate because 782 includes crossbenchers

    There are 244 Conservative peers now and the Party won 42% of the vote in 2017. Remind me how many peers the Conservatives gave up when they polled only 31% in 1997 ?

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    On-topic, Ladbrokes' odds changes mean nothing. No punter will back Labour or anything else at 1/50 this far out from the event. The LibDem agent has stuck a fiver on for a cheap headline.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,247
    We are slipping towards another general election...
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311

    TOPPING said:


    “Lies”

    Desperate stuff, Dicky.

    You claimed I had blamed the EU for the current mess. I haven't. I have blamed May for most of it. So you lied.

    You claimed I wanted a tailor made fantasy Brexit when I have been clear all along I wanted the EEA solution. So again you lied.

    Man up Topping and admit you are too dumb to play these games.
    You really are being this moronic.

    You are in a tricky bind. Your unrealistic desire for some fantasy Brexit has crumbled at your feet.

    Oh but we could have had Norway which ignores the old freedom of movement issue which, as Meeks has rehearsed many times on here, put you in the same team as some vile fellow travellers.

    Put simply, the slightest insight or understanding would have made it clear that it was never going to happen. But no and now you display the belligerence of someone who knows thy have made a fool of themselves and is trying to tough it out.

    Fail.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    We are slipping towards another general election...

    Don't tell Brenda!
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    The counter-revolution.

    Brexit being the revolution.

    17 million vs...

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,358
    On topic, it doesn't take a genius to work out what the newspaper headlines would be if the Green candidate ran again, leading to a shock win.

    I'm not backing the Liberal Democrats. The idea they could win here is quite ridiculous.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    kle4 said:

    Elliot said:

    Um. Come on, PB.
    I had to go onto the Guardian to confirm the Lords *had* voted to stay in the EEA, despite a whipping operation by both the Tories and Labour.

    I actually presumed the forces of evilBrexiters would carry the day on this one.

    Have the Tories now completely given up any pretence at managing the Lords?

    The Lords is completely unrepresentative because the Lib Dems have so many lifetime appointments due to a brief period of popularity. No advocate of fairness can possibly justify its composition and resulting huge Europhile bias.

    At least it makes clear how elitism is still at the heart of Remainism.
    Rees-Mogg and Boris are presumably part of some other elite?
    The elites are not united on Brexit.
    Elite is fast becoming shorthand for 'people who disagree with me'.
    I have lots of names for those who disagree with me. Elite does not feature.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,358

    On-topic, Ladbrokes' odds changes mean nothing. No punter will back Labour or anything else at 1/50 this far out from the event. The LibDem agent has stuck a fiver on for a cheap headline.

    I'm hoping Labour slip to 1/10. Then I'll stick a few hundred quid on Labour.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856

    We are slipping towards another general election...

    Don't tell Brenda!
    She has to give permission, doesn’t she?

    Oh, *that* Brenda.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    Scott_P said:

    The counter-revolution.

    Brexit being the revolution.

    17 million vs...

    Most of the people who innocently ticked the Leave box in 2016 will be surprised to find they have been conscripted into a revolutionary civil war.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    On-topic, Ladbrokes' odds changes mean nothing. No punter will back Labour or anything else at 1/50 this far out from the event. The LibDem agent has stuck a fiver on for a cheap headline.

    I'm hoping Labour slip to 1/10. Then I'll stick a few hundred quid on Labour.
    I've laid the Lib Dems at 15.5 on Betfair.

    Now if the Greens could get round to some ramping I'd be grateful.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679
    edited May 2018

    We are slipping towards another general election...

    Don't tell Brenda!
    She has to give permission, doesn’t she?

    Oh, *that* Brenda.
    No, not the other one, the "Oh, not another" one.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770

    Scott_P said:

    The counter-revolution.

    Brexit being the revolution.

    17 million vs...

    Most of the people who innocently ticked the Leave box in 2016 will be surprised to find they have been conscripted into a revolutionary civil war.
    You seem to treat remain in that way, so I am not sure why you are surprised - you co-opt your fellows in a remainy insurgency. :)
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Christ! This bloody Customs Union question is turning into the Schleswig-Holstein question of the 21st century. Few understand it and the rest are being driven mad by it.

    I simply will not forgive those Tories who - because of this obsession - end up giving the country a Brexit more harmful than it need be and/or a Corbyn government.

    Swallow your pride. Go back to the EU. Ask for a pause because, frankly, we have no fucking idea what we want or how to get there. Then go back and take as long as needed to do the thinking needed to work out some practical proposals which work in the real world, are acceptable to the EU and don't cause damage to those who live in this country. Get some help from those who know what they're talking about (the Swiss, for instance). Tell IDS that we don't want to hear from him again - ever - and to JRM that talking slowly in a deep voice and wearing a double breasted suit says nothing about your intelligence. And sack that trio of arses: Johnson, Fox and Davis. I wouldn't trust them with a glass of water, never mind something this important.

    Cyclefree for PM.




    ...Except for the weird chocolate phobia, of course.
    Yeah, that goes without saying.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    OTOH, the Commons is still voting to reject Lords amendments on Brexit legislation: 306 to 278 on Lords amendment on Nuclear Safeguards Bill.

    Most, if not all, the Lords amendments will be voted down in the Commons. That's when the Lords must decide whether to fold, or enjoy their last hurrah.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    On topic, it doesn't take a genius to work out what the newspaper headlines would be if the Green candidate ran again, leading to a shock win.

    I'm not backing the Liberal Democrats. The idea they could win here is quite ridiculous.

    I'd like to see a bit of Green ramping in Lewisham.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,166
    Sean_F said:

    OTOH, the Commons is still voting to reject Lords amendments on Brexit legislation: 306 to 278 on Lords amendment on Nuclear Safeguards Bill.

    Most, if not all, the Lords amendments will be voted down in the Commons. That's when the Lords must decide whether to fold, or enjoy their last hurrah.
    The CU one may not be.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    All of whom are in the pay of the EU.
    Edit: except Adonis.
    I see you edited your comment before I could point out its flaw!

    Also when was Hezza paid by the EU?

    I think you'll also find the others were formerly paid by the EU and are now in receipt of pensions underwritten by the British government.
    Damn, you’re right on Heseltine, I’d thought he was EU trade minister but actually he was UK trade minister.
    Are you really sure about that? I would agree we paid his wages but....
    There was that nefarious scheme to create a rival to the City at the heart of the EU in Canary Wharf...
    Not quite as daft as his aspirations to create anything of value in Liverpool.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283

    We are slipping towards another general election...

    and another Christmas, Olympics, and Eurovision Song Contest.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    If we have a FTA with the EU with sensible rules of origin the Customs Union issue really becomes a complete irrelevance. A Customs Union is really an adjunct to the SM that we are leaving designed to give it internal and external coherence, something that is not our problem after Brexit. Of course if we don't get a FTA then matters are more complicated but I still don't see why we need a Customs Union, in fact we would not have one in those circumstances.

    The Customs Partnership seems a very complicated way of having rules of origin tests for third party goods coming into either the UK or the EU and then being transferred on either as the original goods or as part of some manufactured product. It really should not require that level of complexity.

    The UK needs to push for a FTA. This is largely a distraction by those who wish us to remain more closely aligned with the Single Market. Boris is not often right but he is about this.

    A customs union is not an irrelevance. It's the only way to avoid rules of origin tests and potential tariffs on all goods passing between the UK and the EU. Apart from the Irish border issue, those RoO checks will kill any supply chain manufacturing in the UK such as automotive manufacturing.

    A customs union should also help retain a large part of the existing set of treaties with third countries, leading to a smaller degradation compared with EU membership than trying to set up our own treaties from scratch.

    Why wouldn't we want to be in a customs union?
    I said it is an irrelevance if we have a FTA. That means no tariffs and no complications with supply chains. We would still need RoO but I don't see why they would kill anything. Once you have determined the source of the first gearbox the next million are treated the same way.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    new thread

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    Nigelb said:


    Richard is, in some respects, typical of leavers.

    He has his own idiosyncratic views, held by a subset of those who voted leave, and believes he speaks for the majority of the electorate.

    Note the frequent use of “we”...

    A posting which ignores the fact I have long accepted (and posted on here regularly) that my preferred option will probably not happen because of the issue of freedom of movement. Indeed in the very thread you have posted into I said "I have accepted it is not going to happen because of the way in which May has interpreted the vote but it was certainly perfectly feasible."

    So please do not ascribe views to me that I do not hold.
    That’s fine - so long as you accept you are an idiosyncratic minority representative.

    :smile:
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,951
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:


    “Lies”

    Desperate stuff, Dicky.

    You claimed I had blamed the EU for the current mess. I haven't. I have blamed May for most of it. So you lied.

    You claimed I wanted a tailor made fantasy Brexit when I have been clear all along I wanted the EEA solution. So again you lied.

    Man up Topping and admit you are too dumb to play these games.
    You really are being this moronic.

    You are in a tricky bind. Your unrealistic desire for some fantasy Brexit has crumbled at your feet.

    Oh but we could have had Norway which ignores the old freedom of movement issue which, as Meeks has rehearsed many times on here, put you in the same team as some vile fellow travellers.

    Put simply, the slightest insight or understanding would have made it clear that it was never going to happen. But no and now you display the belligerence of someone who knows thy have made a fool of themselves and is trying to tough it out.

    Fail.
    Yet more garbage from you. You got caught out lying and are now squirming. You really are a worm - and a dishonest one at that. I will make sure to remind people of that if they are ever dumb enough to make a bet with you. Someone who simply cannot be trusted on anything.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    The stakes are pretty high now. Dominic Grieve said on R4 that he thinks it's the UK's greatest peacetime crisis for 300 years. He's fairly well-qualified to speak on the matter; I'd only guessed that it might be the worst in my lifetime, i.e worse than Suez or Iraq.

    OK. So it's apparently greater than the following:

    1) The Jacobite Rising of 1744-46

    2) The Reform Act of 1832

    3) The Chartist petition of 1848

    4) The Irish potato famine of 1845-46

    5) The Home Rule Crisis 1911-14

    6) The Irish Rising, war of independence and civil war of 1916 and 1918-22

    7) The Shoreditch Mutiny of 1919

    8) The General Strike of 1926

    9) The Invergorden Mutiny

    10) The Famine of 1948

    11) The Ulster Crisis of 1969-74

    I think we need to keep a little perspective here, Mr Grieve. Nobody has died as a result of Brexit and unless Juncker crowns his inglorious career of Facism and drunken incompetence by declaring war on us to take revenge for us making him look like the two-bit drug addled failure he is, nobody is going to. One of the more depressing things about Brexit is it leads people I hitherto respected to behave like headless chickens.

    What is also faintly disturbing is that some Remainers don't seem to have thought through what they're saying. During he campaign it was, we're a sovereign country and can do as we like within the EU, which is really not terribly important. Now they're saying the sky will fall if we come out because the EU is so powerful, so vital to us and we're inextricably intertwined with it.
    12) Failure of Burnley FC to win Champions League 2018.
    Ummmm... American independence anyone...
    Nah, that wasn't a crisis. Who wants a load of Americans?
    David Cameron’s cousin, Lord North, saw some reputational damage so I guess some people cared at the time
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:


    “Lies”

    Desperate stuff, Dicky.

    You claimed I had blamed the EU for the current mess. I haven't. I have blamed May for most of it. So you lied.

    You claimed I wanted a tailor made fantasy Brexit when I have been clear all along I wanted the EEA solution. So again you lied.

    Man up Topping and admit you are too dumb to play these games.
    You really are being this moronic.

    You are in a tricky bind. Your unrealistic desire for some fantasy Brexit has crumbled at your feet.

    Oh but we could have had Norway which ignores the old freedom of movement issue which, as Meeks has rehearsed many times on here, put you in the same team as some vile fellow travellers.

    Put simply, the slightest insight or understanding would have made it clear that it was never going to happen. But no and now you display the belligerence of someone who knows thy have made a fool of themselves and is trying to tough it out.

    Fail.
    Yet more garbage from you. You got caught out lying and are now squirming. You really are a worm - and a dishonest one at that. I will make sure to remind people of that if they are ever dumb enough to make a bet with you. Someone who simply cannot be trusted on anything.
    V funny. You go ahead and remind them all. You do know people can’t hear it when you shout at the screen as you type.
This discussion has been closed.