Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those PBers who took the Barnet tips are in the money this mor

2

Comments

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Surely the thing to take more than anything else, is that the next election is unlikely to produce a majority for either party.

    Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, and Johnny Mercer are the only Tory MPs who can lead the Tories to a majority next time.
    Mercer was all over the shop last night.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    "BBC News Online

    The outgoing Conservative leader of Plymouth City Council says his team "accepts the will of the people" after Labour gained four seats from them in the local elections."

    No, BBC, the Tories lost one to Labour - UKIP lost 3, which was why control changed hands.

    Sloppy.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,303

    Surely the thing to take more than anything else, is that the next election is unlikely to produce a majority for either party.

    Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, and Johnny Mercer are the only Tory MPs who can lead the Tories to a majority next time.
    Book talking? :-)
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,408
    AndyJS said:

    Redbridge now Lab 51 Con 12. (was Lab 35, Con 25, LD 3)
    Cons lose half their seats, LDs gone.

    Tories missed one seat in Redbridge by 10 votes, can't remember which ward it was.
    Must have been Bridge ward - there was a recount.
  • Options
    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    nunuone said:

    nunuone said:

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/992190522260361217

    Does this mean tories finally have a Cllr in Manchester (city) again?

    oh no it's in bury, never mind.
    Morning all

    I'm in the ward next door to Pilkington Park. Bury MBC is just the local council district - i'd say 90% of Whitefielders consider themselves as "Manchester". The postal address is "Whitefield, Manchester, M45".

    Next door but one to this ward is Kersal, in Salford CC's jurisdiction. Massively Jewish, it also went from Lab to Con last night. Kersal is even closer to central Manchester, you can almost reach out and touch Mcr Town Hall or Cathedral from that ward.

    Tory success (relatively speaking) here, alongside recent wins I believe in and around Eccles (not checked last night's results), plus the seats they have managed to hold in Trafford, are all in my view "Manchester" Tory wins, even if not within the very tightly and curiously drawn boundaries of "the City of Manchester", which excludes large areas most folk think of as part of the wider city.

    Disappointed Labour held my own ward by 200 odd votes from a strong Tory challenge, and that across Bury MBC the Tories only made a net gain of 1 seat from Labour. But 8 years in to a Tory led administration, that is not I suppose a terrible position to be in, slightly chipping away at Labour's hold rather than them reinforcing it.

    Not shaping up to be that bad a night for the Tories really - very surprised they have held on so well in London.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,787

    Anyhoo.

    LIVERPOOL F.C.

    I think I might need to sell the souls of family and pimp out my girlfriend to get a ticket for the final, but I think I’ll do it.

    Got to hand it the Ukrainians, the equivalent of their Premier Inns in Kyiv which are normally £50 a night are charging £3,000 per night on final night.

    Stay up all night and fly back the next day? :)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563

    Surely the thing to take more than anything else, is that the next election is unlikely to produce a majority for either party.

    Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, and Johnny Mercer are the only Tory MPs who can lead the Tories to a majority next time.
    Book talking? :-)
    Pure happenstance.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Foxy said:

    Anyhoo.

    LIVERPOOL F.C.

    I think I might need to sell the souls of family and pimp out my girlfriend to get a ticket for the final, but I think I’ll do it.

    Got to hand it the Ukrainians, the equivalent of their Premier Inns in Kyiv which are normally £50 a night are charging £3,000 per night on final night.

    Stay up all night and fly back the next day? :)
    Is an option. Is what I effectively did in Istanbul 2005.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,787

    Foxy said:

    Anyhoo.

    LIVERPOOL F.C.

    I think I might need to sell the souls of family and pimp out my girlfriend to get a ticket for the final, but I think I’ll do it.

    Got to hand it the Ukrainians, the equivalent of their Premier Inns in Kyiv which are normally £50 a night are charging £3,000 per night on final night.

    Stay up all night and fly back the next day? :)
    Is an option. Is what I effectively did in Istanbul 2005.
    Glad I booked my Moscow hotel early! £70 for Fox jr and me on WC Final night, though will be watching in Red Square.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    currystar said:

    Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. Divided and ineffective, unpleasant in patches, ineffective across the board and weak and directionless. May is hapless, the economy is not great (although not dire) - bumping along the bottom at best and there is no strategy or vision, no clear idea of "why" they are in power.

    Yet Labour still look less preferable to many swing voters and Corbyn is unassailable. Can only see a Tory win next GE.

    The economy is not great???????

    We have record employment, record low unemployment, low interest rates, increasing wages. If you want a job you can have one.. The delusion on this site regarding the economy is off the scale.
    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/991975534644088832
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited May 2018

    Anyhoo.

    LIVERPOOL F.C.

    I think I might need to sell the souls of family and pimp out my girlfriend to get a ticket for the final, but I think I’ll do it.

    Got to hand it the Ukrainians, the equivalent of their Premier Inns in Kyiv which are normally £50 a night are charging £3,000 per night on final night.

    It’s good to have the in-laws a £30 cab ride from central Kiev. See you there hopefully! (In Kiev, not at my in-laws’ place).
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Stephen Pollard - @stephenpollard: Livingstone about to go on @SkyNews to talk about Labour antisemitism,
    That's going to go well, isn't it?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359

    Not sure I follow. Who has misjudged the politics?
    Labour enthusiasts misjudged it before the election (by predicting actual gains of those councils) and Tory enthusiasts are misjudging now (by implying that Labour had bad results in those councils).
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Ken on Sky talking about Hitler again.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2018
    Yep, the Tories, whether they like it or not, are the Brexit Party.

    They've got to deliver... And then start reaching out to Remainers AND Leavers under a new leader (that brings Javid into play potentially)
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,370
    Scott_P said:
    More gracious than most. When do we expect results to start coming in again? About 12?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    Sandpit said:

    Ken on Sky talking about Hitler again.

    He's obsessed with it...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    Scott_P said:

    Stephen Pollard - @stephenpollard: Livingstone about to go on @SkyNews to talk about Labour antisemitism,
    That's going to go well, isn't it?

    He seems to be pretty confident a) that he can say whatever he wants with no consequence, and b) that he is a tremendous asset to the party in what he is saying.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2018
    Anyone know that the projected national share of the vote is for these local elections?
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,914
    Scott_P said:

    Stephen Pollard - @stephenpollard: Livingstone about to go on @SkyNews to talk about Labour antisemitism,
    That's going to go well, isn't it?

    That's going to be hiding behind the sofa time I suspect.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    Sandpit said:

    Ken on Sky talking about Hitler again.

    What, literally? Did they at least ask him about it first? What is up with his obsession?

    Was he always such a nasty piece of work and I hadn't noticed?
  • Options
    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    currystar said:

    Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. Divided and ineffective, unpleasant in patches, ineffective across the board and weak and directionless. May is hapless, the economy is not great (although not dire) - bumping along the bottom at best and there is no strategy or vision, no clear idea of "why" they are in power.

    Yet Labour still look less preferable to many swing voters and Corbyn is unassailable. Can only see a Tory win next GE.

    The economy is not great???????

    We have record employment, record low unemployment, low interest rates, increasing wages. If you want a job you can have one.. The delusion on this site regarding the economy is off the scale.
    Errr, OK. still got a deficit, productivity is poor, real wages have been falling and growth is low. Next recession comes along and then what? more QE? Negative interest rates?

    We are doing OK, no more.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Red Roar - @TheRedRoar: Ken Livingstone on @SkyNews saying zionists and nazis collaborated. Also people in Barnet misunderstood his point and he's been smeared
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited May 2018
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ken on Sky talking about Hitler again.

    What, literally? Did they at least ask him about it first? What is up with his obsession?

    Was he always such a nasty piece of work and I hadn't noticed?
    The question was framed around some people blaming him for the poor Lab performance in Barnet. He started his reply with “Well some people think I said that Hitler was a Zionist, but...”
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    Scott_P said:

    The Red Roar - @TheRedRoar: Ken Livingstone on @SkyNews saying zionists and nazis collaborated. Also people in Barnet misunderstood his point and he's been smeared

    Let us say, for the sake of argument, that that is true Mr Livingstone. Constantly going on about Hitler doesn't seem to be redressing that problem for you, or the party you claim to be trying to help, so perhaps you should just stop talking about it and let time vindicate you, eh?
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Scott_P said:

    The Red Roar - @TheRedRoar: Ken Livingstone on @SkyNews saying zionists and nazis collaborated. Also people in Barnet misunderstood his point and he's been smeared

    The gift that keeps on giving...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,370

    Not sure I follow. Who has misjudged the politics?
    Labour enthusiasts misjudged it before the election (by predicting actual gains of those councils) and Tory enthusiasts are misjudging now (by implying that Labour had bad results in those councils).
    One of the many things that irritate me about Local Election results is that the Councils who count on the second day usually get ignored because the story line has already been set, reported and moved on before they come out.

    As an example here it seems inevitable that Labour will move ahead of the Lib Dems in terms of net gains later today but they will really, really struggle to make anything of this in the narrative. In the past we have had reports of "mixed" results which had become a Tory triumph by the time the last results were counted but it just slipped by.

    I really think all Councils should be strongly encouraged to count on the night. The reporting of democracy is important and it devalues those that don't.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ken on Sky talking about Hitler again.

    What, literally? Did they at least ask him about it first? What is up with his obsession?

    Was he always such a nasty piece of work and I hadn't noticed?
    Yes
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Now Ken’s saying that Labour have to deal with accusations of antisemitism.
    I think he means they have to deal with the perception, rather than the actual problem.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2018
    LOL, I see people who called last year's election hopelessly wrong feel no qualms about rushing back into making confident predictions about the next one.

    I won't deny I'm a little disappointed, I thought Labour would do a smidge better than this (it looks like the big two will be tied in the popular vote, or possibly a 1% Tory lead, whereas until a few weeks ago I was expecting a Labour lead of 2-3%), but there's still all to play for in terms of the next GE. Especially if they learn the lesson not to put their major focus on an immigration issue in the run-up to elections...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    DavidL said:

    Not sure I follow. Who has misjudged the politics?
    Labour enthusiasts misjudged it before the election (by predicting actual gains of those councils) and Tory enthusiasts are misjudging now (by implying that Labour had bad results in those councils).
    One of the many things that irritate me about Local Election results is that the Councils who count on the second day usually get ignored because the story line has already been set, reported and moved on before they come out.

    As an example here it seems inevitable that Labour will move ahead of the Lib Dems in terms of net gains later today but they will really, really struggle to make anything of this in the narrative. In the past we have had reports of "mixed" results which had become a Tory triumph by the time the last results were counted but it just slipped by.

    I really think all Councils should be strongly encouraged to count on the night. The reporting of democracy is important and it devalues those that don't.
    More likely if we tried to make them all count at the same time, they would all wait until morning. Not sure how we could encourage more to do it overnight. My council is moving to morning counts from now on.
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    Danny565 said:

    LOL, I see people who called last year's election hopelessly wrong feel no qualms about rushing back into making confident predictions about the next one.

    Why would we/they? The idea is people should learn from why they were wrong last time when making their new predictions. Now that might not be the case, and in any case the lessons learned might not apply next time, but the alternative is to just go ' who the hell knows?' for another 4 years, and where's the fun in that?
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    Turnout was over 70% in Barnet. Corbyn achieved a major cut-through there.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Now I know everyone is having a bit of a laugh at Owen Jones expense this morning, but he is just doing his best for Labour as is Lansmann even though they aren't to everyone's tastes
    Ken is different, he is completely beyond the pale and I think even UKIP would have chucked him out by now. I genuinely feel bad for my Labour supporting friends that he is in the same party as them. He needs to be chucked out yesterday
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure I follow. Who has misjudged the politics?
    Labour enthusiasts misjudged it before the election (by predicting actual gains of those councils) and Tory enthusiasts are misjudging now (by implying that Labour had bad results in those councils).
    One of the many things that irritate me about Local Election results is that the Councils who count on the second day usually get ignored because the story line has already been set, reported and moved on before they come out.

    As an example here it seems inevitable that Labour will move ahead of the Lib Dems in terms of net gains later today but they will really, really struggle to make anything of this in the narrative. In the past we have had reports of "mixed" results which had become a Tory triumph by the time the last results were counted but it just slipped by.

    I really think all Councils should be strongly encouraged to count on the night. The reporting of democracy is important and it devalues those that don't.
    More likely if we tried to make them all count at the same time, they would all wait until morning. Not sure how we could encourage more to do it overnight. My council is moving to morning counts from now on.
    What’s the reasoning behind morning counts? Given the numbers of votes involved compared to a GE, it shouldn’t have been difficult to have everything done and dusted by midnight or 1am. Most wards would have had fewer than half a dozen boxes to count through.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    Pulpstar said:

    Now I know everyone is having a bit of a laugh at Owen Jones expense this morning, but he is just doing his best for Labour as is Lansmann even though they aren't to everyone's tastes
    Ken is different, he is completely beyond the pale and I think even UKIP would have chucked him out by now. I genuinely feel bad for my Labour supporting friends that he is in the same party as them. He needs to be chucked out yesterday

    There's really no downside to doing so, he will still vote Labour, and presumably therefore so will those who support him.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Scott_P said:
    Did no-one tell him there’s an assistant manager’s job going at Anfield?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure I follow. Who has misjudged the politics?
    Labour enthusiasts misjudged it before the election (by predicting actual gains of those councils) and Tory enthusiasts are misjudging now (by implying that Labour had bad results in those councils).
    One of the many things that irritate me about Local Election results is that the Councils who count on the second day usually get ignored because the story line has already been set, reported and moved on before they come out.

    As an example here it seems inevitable that Labour will move ahead of the Lib Dems in terms of net gains later today but they will really, really struggle to make anything of this in the narrative. In the past we have had reports of "mixed" results which had become a Tory triumph by the time the last results were counted but it just slipped by.

    I really think all Councils should be strongly encouraged to count on the night. The reporting of democracy is important and it devalues those that don't.
    More likely if we tried to make them all count at the same time, they would all wait until morning. Not sure how we could encourage more to do it overnight. My council is moving to morning counts from now on.
    What’s the reasoning behind morning counts? Given the numbers of votes involved compared to a GE, it shouldn’t have been difficult to have everything done and dusted by midnight or 1am. Most wards would have had fewer than half a dozen boxes to count through.
    Higher cost I am guessing
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,787

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    The other thing to bear in mind was that in 2014 the Locals coincided with the Euro elections, so a bit higher profile. I think we are just back to baseline in terms of Local election turnout.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure I follow. Who has misjudged the politics?
    Labour enthusiasts misjudged it before the election (by predicting actual gains of those councils) and Tory enthusiasts are misjudging now (by implying that Labour had bad results in those councils).
    One of the many things that irritate me about Local Election results is that the Councils who count on the second day usually get ignored because the story line has already been set, reported and moved on before they come out.

    As an example here it seems inevitable that Labour will move ahead of the Lib Dems in terms of net gains later today but they will really, really struggle to make anything of this in the narrative. In the past we have had reports of "mixed" results which had become a Tory triumph by the time the last results were counted but it just slipped by.

    I really think all Councils should be strongly encouraged to count on the night. The reporting of democracy is important and it devalues those that don't.
    More likely if we tried to make them all count at the same time, they would all wait until morning. Not sure how we could encourage more to do it overnight. My council is moving to morning counts from now on.
    What’s the reasoning behind morning counts? Given the numbers of votes involved compared to a GE, it shouldn’t have been difficult to have everything done and dusted by midnight or 1am. Most wards would have had fewer than half a dozen boxes to count through.
    I don't really know the reason - you still need all your volunteers arranged, so I cannot think there's any cost factor. Maybe there's a feeling people will be more clear headed in the morning, although i would think if I had been standing for election, or been working hard for weeks to get someone elected, I'd not sleep very soundly overnight anyway, and it doesn't seem to cause a problem.

    Absent a clear positive reason for morning counts, I like that the average citizen can wake up and see the general picture of things, or even the whole picture, first thing.

    I think Tower Hamlets were still verifying votes as of around 3/4am, but they are a unique case of course.
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Fenster said:

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    Turnout was over 70% in Barnet. Corbyn achieved a major cut-through there.
    70!? Wow, I know it's middle class so it's expected to have a high turnout..... but wow.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    From May 2017, a reminder that local elections aren't always good predictors for General Election results.


    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-projection-pm-would-win-commons-majority-of-48-based-on-local-election-analysis-10864261

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,787

    currystar said:

    Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. Divided and ineffective, unpleasant in patches, ineffective across the board and weak and directionless. May is hapless, the economy is not great (although not dire) - bumping along the bottom at best and there is no strategy or vision, no clear idea of "why" they are in power.

    Yet Labour still look less preferable to many swing voters and Corbyn is unassailable. Can only see a Tory win next GE.

    The economy is not great???????

    We have record employment, record low unemployment, low interest rates, increasing wages. If you want a job you can have one.. The delusion on this site regarding the economy is off the scale.
    Errr, OK. still got a deficit, productivity is poor, real wages have been falling and growth is low. Next recession comes along and then what? more QE? Negative interest rates?

    We are doing OK, no more.

    Try telling the Millenials that they are doing great economically, and see how that goes down.

    Real wages are down on a decade ago, and at best they are treading water.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    The idea is people should learn from why they were wrong last time when making their new predictions.

    I don't think people have learned though. People are using exactly the same rationales that they were using a year ago ("Corbyn can't appeal outside his comfort zone", "no Tory voter would find Corbyn attractive", "there's little appetite for left-wing economics outside of London", etcetc.), even though that election proved those rationales wrong.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Foxy said:

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    The other thing to bear in mind was that in 2014 the Locals coincided with the Euro elections, so a bit higher profile. I think we are just back to baseline in terms of Local election turnout.
    I've been reading reports of higher turnouts.....
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    The idea is people should learn from why they were wrong last time when making their new predictions.

    I don't think people have learned though. People are using exactly the same rationales that they were using a year ago ("Corbyn can't appeal outside his comfort zone", "no Tory voter would find Corbyn attractive", "there's little appetite for left-wing economics outside of London", etcetc.), even though that election proved those rationales wrong.
    Looks to be an appetite for it on the south coast in spades
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    Turnout was pretty good in most places by local election standards. Turnout was up in Swindon where voter ID was in operation.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    The idea is people should learn from why they were wrong last time when making their new predictions.

    I don't think people have learned though. People are using exactly the same rationales that they were using a year ago ("Corbyn can't appeal outside his comfort zone", "no Tory voter would find Corbyn attractive", "there's little appetite for left-wing economics outside of London", etcetc.), even though that election proved those rationales wrong.
    You are probably right, but the wider point was that it'd be no fun to simply stop predicting because we were wrong before - as is often noted, pundits are almost always wrong, and they still find employment in the commentariat, and random anoraks aren't going to be more reflective than them.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    That report is based on such a limited sample as to render their data meaningless.

    "This constituted 1.67% of voters being declined the right to vote" headline quote does not take into account people who could easily have returned with the correct paperwork. This is admitted in the full document. They didn't bother to find out whether these people did actually vote. It may be that they did - in which case it didn't have any effect at all on the ability to vote. Because they didn't take that basic step, their findings have no substance.

    Being unable to vote on the first visit to the polling station is not the same as being denied a vote.

    Were these trials perfect? Of course not. Is further work necessary? Absolutely. But half-arsed 'research' like this really does nothing to inform the debate.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    Danny565 said:

    LOL, I see people who called last year's election hopelessly wrong feel no qualms about rushing back into making confident predictions about the next one.

    I won't deny I'm a little disappointed, I thought Labour would do a smidge better than this (it looks like the big two will be tied in the popular vote, or possibly a 1% Tory lead, whereas until a few weeks ago I was expecting a Labour lead of 2-3%), but there's still all to play for in terms of the next GE. Especially if they learn the lesson not to put their major focus on an immigration issue in the run-up to elections...

    1992 UK predicted to be a one party state, then along came Blair. Events dear boy, events.

    https://twitter.com/PolProfSteve/status/991289213718016001
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    Can anyone guess what Ken has been talking about this morning?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/992340883998621696/video/1
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,370
    Tories back in positive territory. Up 1 councillor.
    Edit. Spoke too soon. Back to zero.

    Might this have been the last election where UKIP were not "others"?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    Nice try - Labour performance and appalling expectations management are the major stories
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    ?
    ).
    One of the many things that irritate me about Local Election results is that the Councils who count on the second day usually get ignored because the story line has already been set, reported and moved on before they come out.

    As an example here it seems inevitable that Labour will move ahead of the Lib Dems in terms of net gains later today but they will really, really struggle to make anything of this in the narrative. In the past we have had reports of "mixed" results which had become a Tory triumph by the time the last results were counted but it just slipped by.

    I really think all Councils should be strongly encouraged to count on the night. The reporting of democracy is important and it devalues those that don't.
    More likely if we tried to make them all count at the same time, they would all wait until morning. Not sure how we could encourage more to do it overnight. My council is moving to morning counts from now on.
    What’s the reasoning behind morning counts? Given the numbers of votes involved compared to a GE, it shouldn’t have been difficult to have everything done and dusted by midnight or 1am. Most wards would have had fewer than half a dozen boxes to count through.
    I don't really know the reason - you still need all your volunteers arranged, so I cannot think there's any cost factor. Maybe there's a feeling people will be more clear headed in the morning, although i would think if I had been standing for election, or been working hard for weeks to get someone elected, I'd not sleep very soundly overnight anyway, and it doesn't seem to cause a problem.

    Absent a clear positive reason for morning counts, I like that the average citizen can wake up and see the general picture of things, or even the whole picture, first thing.

    I think Tower Hamlets were still verifying votes as of around 3/4am, but they are a unique case of course.
    TH I could understand given the history, but places that count today are going to be transporting the ballot boxes and paying police overtime to guard them overnight anyway, and I always understood that the counters were volunteers from the council staff or from local banks who would presumably prefer not to take a whole day off work today. The candidates and party volunteers would I’m sure be rather the result was known ASAP, but there must be a reason for so many councils to go down the next day route.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,914
    Foxy said:

    currystar said:

    Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. Divided and ineffective, unpleasant in patches, ineffective across the board and weak and directionless. May is hapless, the economy is not great (although not dire) - bumping along the bottom at best and there is no strategy or vision, no clear idea of "why" they are in power.

    Yet Labour still look less preferable to many swing voters and Corbyn is unassailable. Can only see a Tory win next GE.

    The economy is not great???????

    We have record employment, record low unemployment, low interest rates, increasing wages. If you want a job you can have one.. The delusion on this site regarding the economy is off the scale.
    Errr, OK. still got a deficit, productivity is poor, real wages have been falling and growth is low. Next recession comes along and then what? more QE? Negative interest rates?

    We are doing OK, no more.

    Try telling the Millenials that they are doing great economically, and see how that goes down.

    Real wages are down on a decade ago, and at best they are treading water.
    Productivity growth over past 10 years was negative for the first time in almost 100 years.
    https://bankunderground.co.uk/2018/04/25/bitesize-the-past-decades-productivity-growth-in-historical-context/
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,370
    Labour draws level with Lib Dems: 40 all.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Can anyone explain to me on what basis these are great results for the Lib Dems?

    They're looking at a voteshare of about 15% - lower than in any local elections ever before the Coalition.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Foxy said:

    currystar said:

    Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. Divided and ineffective, unpleasant in patches, ineffective across the board and weak and directionless. May is hapless, the economy is not great (although not dire) - bumping along the bottom at best and there is no strategy or vision, no clear idea of "why" they are in power.

    Yet Labour still look less preferable to many swing voters and Corbyn is unassailable. Can only see a Tory win next GE.

    The economy is not great???????

    We have record employment, record low unemployment, low interest rates, increasing wages. If you want a job you can have one.. The delusion on this site regarding the economy is off the scale.
    Errr, OK. still got a deficit, productivity is poor, real wages have been falling and growth is low. Next recession comes along and then what? more QE? Negative interest rates?

    We are doing OK, no more.

    Try telling the Millenials that they are doing great economically, and see how that goes down.

    Real wages are down on a decade ago, and at best they are treading water.
    Come and see my company car park - some of them are doing very well thank you.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    And Harold Shipman only killed .000043% of the population, so that's ok.

    Your protests against attempts to eliminate electoral fraud do sound awfully like a turkey voting against Christmas. Is this because your party's continued electability depends on wholesale postal vote rigging, or for some other reason?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Why did people really vote to Leave or Remain? .....immigration and sovereignty headed Leavers’ reasons – contrary to suggestions that the vote was intended to ‘teach politicians a lesson’. Leavers also proved better at characterising Remainers’ reasons than vice versa – something which may be linked to progressives’ greater tendency to disengage from their political opponents.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/04/leavers-have-a-better-understanding-of-remainers-motivations-than-vice-versa/
  • Options
    bardigianibardigiani Posts: 19

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    Perhaps the solution is to only introduce these requirements in areas where there is a significant history of voter fraud....
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    There is some old bloke on sky new now, is he anybody important?
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain to me on what basis these are great results for the Lib Dems?

    They're looking at a voteshare of about 15% - lower than in any local elections ever before the Coalition.

    15% is a lot better than their 8%-10% in most poles.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    edited May 2018
    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain to me on what basis these are great results for the Lib Dems?

    They're looking at a voteshare of about 15% - lower than in any local elections ever before the Coalition.

    On the same measure as the GE was a great result, despite the vote share being down - they're holding core areas, and have made some targeted recoveries.

    With the torrid time they have had of things perhaps great should be in inverted commas to demonstrate it must be a relative judgement. But gaining councils is undeniably positive.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    5/1 against Corbyn next PM is basically a bet on the government collapsing over Brexit before Theresa May can hand over power a year or so before the next election is due in 2022. Otherwise, the next PM will be Conservative and in the Cabinet (which does not necessarily mean in the Cabinet right at the moment).
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    There is some old bloke on sky new now, is he anybody important?

    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/992342043899977728
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain to me on what basis these are great results for the Lib Dems?

    They're looking at a voteshare of about 15% - lower than in any local elections ever before the Coalition.

    They've gained more councils than Labour.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    Floater said:
    Notable Ken claims he has tried not talking about this, and causing a distraction, by not doing all the interviews requested about it. So he is trying.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain to me on what basis these are great results for the Lib Dems?

    They're looking at a voteshare of about 15% - lower than in any local elections ever before the Coalition.

    LDs always get at least around 5% more nationally in local elections than they do at the general election e.g. you get a number of Tory and Labour general election voters who vote LD at council level to fix potholes, so yes nothing spectacular from the LDs here
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    After 103 council results the Tories have made no gains and no losses.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    AndyJS said:

    After 103 council results the Tories have made no gains and no losses.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018

    what are the four and where can I follow them? BBC's updates are useless mix of old and new
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Danny565 said:

    lower than in any local elections ever before the Coalition.

    It's after the coalition
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Mrs May is really crap at these on the stump speeches.
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    Mrs May is really crap at these on the stump speeches.

    what part of being PM is she not crap at? Oh I know having mediocre election results...
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018

    AndyJS said:

    After 103 council results the Tories have made no gains and no losses.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018

    what are the four and where can I follow them? BBC's updates are useless mix of old and new
    Sky News had the latest councils along the bottom of the screen earlier. Norwich is one of the latest results.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,604

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    Perhaps the solution is to only introduce these requirements in areas where there is a significant history of voter fraud....
    Voter fraud is just a fig leaf being used to hide the real motivation from these changes.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    If you want to know how last night was for the Labour Party, you need to look no further than the statement that Jeremy Corbyn has just released on the results. It is not a celebratory comment on Labour’s spectacular night, but a defensive one, describing the local elections as a ‘solid set of results’. He adds:

    ‘In a sign of how worried they are about Labour’s advance, the Tories talked up our chances to unrealistic levels, especially in London. The results show they’re right to be worried – we came within a whisker of winning Wandsworth for the first time in over 40 years.’

    Corbyn is right, by the way: the Tories spent months telling anyone who was half listening that they were going to get trounced in these elections. That they were successful in this briefing war is shown by the fact that Corbyn has to address their predictions at all in this statement.


    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/05/labour-tory-spin-jeremy-corbyn/
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Scott_P said:
    Ah, the 'if you don't agree to a deal which doesn't involve me shooting my feet off, I'll shoot my feet off' gambit.

    Have they thought this one through?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Scott_P said:
    Trade talks might have to be collaped then, the Irish are not acting in good faith in these negotiations now.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    Perhaps the solution is to only introduce these requirements in areas where there is a significant history of voter fraud....
    Voter fraud is just a fig leaf being used to hide the real motivation from these changes.
    If 20-30 people made allegations of fraud, they'd have to live in the same ultra-marginal seat in order to change a general election result.

    It's an utter non-problem and is now being made a 'problem' to disenfranchise maybe 2-3% of Labour voters and less than 1% of Tories.

    I thought we'd grown up when we abolished Rotten Boroughs ... it's like a scene from Blackadder.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    Perhaps the solution is to only introduce these requirements in areas where there is a significant history of voter fraud....
    Voter fraud is just a fig leaf being used to hide the real motivation from these changes.
    No it isn't. Stop spreading scare stories and smears.

    Our electoral system is too open to abuse.

    If you were designing a system from scratch, you would put integrity and security at the heart of it. Ensuring individual, verified voter registration, ensuring absentee ballots were carried out by the person requesting them, ensuring that the person presenting themselves to vote in the polling station is who they say they. All of these are basic things that are necessary for a secure voting system.

    We do not have that. Whatever the scale of abuse of the system, we should still work to ensure that is as secure as we can make it.

    If is it reasonable to be required to show ID to collect a parcel from the Post Office depot or to join my local library, it is surely reasonable to show ID to participate in our electoral process.

    Voter ID works in Northern Ireland.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Scott_P said:
    Not much of a 'negotiation' in 'good faith' if the only option on the table is Hotel California.

    Varadkar is Barnier's useful idiot.....
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    edited May 2018
    So yesterday I went along to vote to be told that I had already voted. As it happened I had come straight from LHR so showed them my passport and after several phone calls was given a "tender" vote. Whatever that is.

    Ealing Council area.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    Perhaps the solution is to only introduce these requirements in areas where there is a significant history of voter fraud....
    Voter fraud is just a fig leaf being used to hide the real motivation from these changes.
    If 20-30 people made allegations of fraud, they'd have to live in the same ultra-marginal seat in order to change a general election result.

    It's an utter non-problem and is now being made a 'problem' to disenfranchise maybe 2-3% of Labour voters and less than 1% of Tories.

    I thought we'd grown up when we abolished Rotten Boroughs ... it's like a scene from Blackadder.
    More smears and made up statistics.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    Scott_P said:
    Ah, the 'if you don't agree to a deal which doesn't involve me shooting my feet off, I'll shoot my feet off' gambit.

    Have they thought this one through?
    It feels like there's a practical problem here though: If the British won't even honour the deal they've already made, what's the point in talking to them about a new one?
  • Options
    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    2 stories of the night,appalling turnout and the Tory shambles of Voter ID.According to Democracy Volunteers' estimates 1.67% of voters might have lost their right to vote due to ID requirements yesterday.

    Only 0.000063% of voters made allegations of fraud in 2017

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/amp/

    The story of the night is that Corbyn & Co are a bunch of loooooooosers! ;)
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    It does very much look as though some Labour supporters think their party benefits from fraud. Why else are they opposing the extremely simple and non-obtrusive measures being piloted?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,129

    Scott_P said:
    Ah, the 'if you don't agree to a deal which doesn't involve me shooting my feet off, I'll shoot my feet off' gambit.

    Have they thought this one through?
    Yes they have. They know that the next step would be a capitulation of the British.
This discussion has been closed.