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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those PBers who took the Barnet tips are in the money this mor

SystemSystem Posts: 12,256
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those PBers who took the Barnet tips are in the money this morning

Over the past few weeks there have been several posts here suggesting that the best bet of the local elections was on the key LAB target in London – Barnet. TSE started it all on March 25th when the Tories were 5/1 with Ladbrokes and he suggested that that we should bet that LAB wouldn’t do it.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,323
    edited May 2018
    I seem to be buffing my nails a lot this past week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,323
    The Conservative leader of Barnet Council leader said voters were more concerned about "local issues" than with accusations of anti-Semitism within Labour.

    Richard Cornelius told the Press Association: "They are all basic issues. It's things like potholes, the collection of their rubbish bins and keeping the council tax low.

    "Of course there is a concern about anti-Semitism in the Jewish areas, and of course there is a wider concern about it more generally.

    "People are horrified, and Labour have to address that."

    Article share tools
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Oii - where did my post go - rigged I tell you !! :-)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    Labour in a bubble. Is this enough to burst it? Probably not.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,323
    I think 2017 was Peak Corbyn and Peak May.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/992287533600948229
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LDs take the third seat in Mortlake and Barnes Common from the Tories by one vote:

    https://cabnet.richmond.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=93&RPID=504875057


    Bill Newton Dunn gets in by 6 votes over the Tories in South Richmond:

    https://cabnet.richmond.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=95&RPID=504875057
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited May 2018
    ConHome take:

    The Party can make progress in a new natural heartland – the mass of midlands, Yorkshire and northern marginals that plumped for Brexit… On this site, James Frayne has constantly emphasised the centrality of these voters to the Conservatives’ future – and is absolutely right.

    …While also holding Labour at bay in London. Theresa May, or whoever succeeds her, won’t have the advantage of good local councils as a centrepiece in (we hope) 2022. But a lesson of these elections is that Corbyn and Labour are vulnerable to the charge of extremism. That be built on.

    A big lesson of these elections is: keep the faith on Brexit – and the discontent with the status quo that it stands for. The Prime Minister will do otherwise if she uses the space these results are giving her to have another push at the customs partnership

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/05/these-local-brexit-elections.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    https://twitter.com/barristerblog/status/992311754804756480?s=21
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Dear oh dear. Labour. To be honest I think these results look like a disaster, mid-term, especially given their wild enthusiasms and all the talk about Red London.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories hold the last seat in High Barnet by one vote over Labour.

    https://twitter.com/BarnetCouncil/status/992312308037664768
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    :lol:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/992282855182028801
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,718
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Conservative leader of Barnet Council leader said voters were more concerned about "local issues" than with accusations of anti-Semitism within Labour.

    Richard Cornelius told the Press Association: "They are all basic issues. It's things like potholes, the collection of their rubbish bins and keeping the council tax low.

    "Of course there is a concern about anti-Semitism in the Jewish areas, and of course there is a wider concern about it more generally.

    "People are horrified, and Labour have to address that."

    Article share tools

    The two gains in Chipping Barnet probably reflect the disappearance of the Coleman Effect.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    The conundrum for Labour is Corbyn is immensely popular - unassailable even - with the Momentum/membership arm of the party, but he isn't capable/isn't interested in winning over voters who live outside of his narrow world view.

    He isn't popular in the valleys and neither are Momentum. People here will still vote Labour but even the local activists think his stint as leader is time-wasted.

    Aside from the odd win in the Shires I just don't see it's possible that the Corbyn raison d'etre will ever win over enough middle-ground voters.

    Blair won 1800 seats in 1995. Corbyn has won 40.

    Facts don't lie.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,993
    rottenborough said:

    Dear oh dear. Labour. To be honest I think these results look like a disaster, mid-term, especially given their wild enthusiasms and all the talk about Red London.

    These results are dire for Labour, and moderately good for the Tories. The Lib Dems did quite well within their usual hot-spots, and the Kippers are almost dead.

    I don't want to help Labour, but surely even they can see that a leader who hates Britain is not a vote winner.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,788
    not_on_fire said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    TheJezziah said:

    kle4 said:

    TheJezziah said:

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it ction result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.
    Well no more than you get centrists or Blairites complaining now about the same but if you prefer different wording I am fine with that. I can understand the wording as if your ideas are locked out of both main parties then they take very little effect.

    Although I suppose there are counter arguments regarding UKIP and then to a lesser extent the Greens have seen their issues adopted, although a far slower process!
    Certainly centrists aren't disenfranchised either. They have options if they cannot support the current direction of the party.
    Like what? There is nowhere to go. Lib Dem’s dead, still tarnished by coalition. Tories heading right, drunk on Brexit.
    They can form a new party then. The point was they have a vote, and that they don't like the options doesn't change that.
    Forming a new party? You might as well give up on politics altogether under FPTP. Labour needs centrists to win. Always has, always will. Corbyn and co need to wake up to that.
    And none of that has anything to do with disenfranchisement, which was the point. You're not being starved if you're offered 3 meals you don't like, and it might be hard and unrewarding but you can try making a meal yourself. Or more likely, suck it up and eat it.
    A system that requires voters to “suck it up” is not fit for purpose.
    The System Doesn't Require Them To - If They Don't Like The Parties neW Ones Can Arise. Yes it's not easy, but not being easy doesn't mean people are denied a vote

    I happen to think there are better electoral systems, but that isn't what was being complained about, it was stated then when one wing if a party was in the ascendency people were disenfranchised. That is utter tosh.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Faisal: country in "silos" of around 40% for each main party. Peak May and Peak Corbyn have been passed at once.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    More on the Skripals:

    http://news.sky.com/story/salisbury-attack-skripals-poisoned-with-up-to-100g-of-novichok-nerve-agent-says-watchdog-11357769
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,595
    edited May 2018
    Looks like Labour have gained a fair number of Tory council seats in London but 0 Tory councils.

    As I thought might be the case the Jewish vote did for Labour in Barnet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    glw said:

    rottenborough said:

    Dear oh dear. Labour. To be honest I think these results look like a disaster, mid-term, especially given their wild enthusiasms and all the talk about Red London.

    These results are dire for Labour, and moderately good for the Tories. The Lib Dems did quite well within their usual hot-spots, and the Kippers are almost dead.

    I don't want to help Labour, but surely even they can see that a leader who hates Britain is not a vote winner.
    Sounds like they are too busy hurling abuse to worry how Britain sees Corbyn.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/992190522260361217

    Does this mean tories finally have a Cllr in Manchester (city) again?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,208
    The Tories fall to a net loss (which will surely increase during the day) and Labour look set to overcome the Lib Dems as the biggest net winner of seats. But the numbers are tiny. For all practical purposes it is as you were.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    nunuone said:

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/992190522260361217

    Does this mean tories finally have a Cllr in Manchester (city) again?

    oh no it's in bury, never mind.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,483
    HYUFD said:

    Looks like Labour have gained a fair number of Tory council seats in London but 0 Tory councils.

    As I thought might be the case the Jewish vote did for Labour in Barnet.

    Labour bred the identity politics monster. And it’s now bitten them on the arse. Good.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Fenster said:

    The conundrum for Labour is Corbyn is immensely popular - unassailable even - with the Momentum/membership arm of the party, but he isn't capable/isn't interested in winning over voters who live outside of his narrow world view.

    He isn't popular in the valleys and neither are Momentum. People here will still vote Labour but even the local activists think his stint as leader is time-wasted.

    Aside from the odd win in the Shires I just don't see it's possible that the Corbyn raison d'etre will ever win over enough middle-ground voters.

    Blair won 1800 seats in 1995. Corbyn has won 40.

    Facts don't lie.

    There you go, mentioning Blair. You know he's not really Labour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/992316940034232320
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Being the only Remain party seems to have worked out reasonably well for LibDems. Or has it all been potholes and rubbish collections?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like Labour have gained a fair number of Tory council seats in London but 0 Tory councils.

    As I thought might be the case the Jewish vote did for Labour in Barnet.

    Labour bred the identity politics monster. And it’s now bitten them on the arse. Good.
    If white people start voting according to identity lines (as they did in the US in 2016) Labour will find themselves out of power for a long time.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Epic fail.

    https://twitter.com/FromSteveHowell/status/992310498136752130

    He is not familiar with that account's views.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    rottenborough said:

    Being the only Remain party seems to have worked out reasonably well for LibDems. Or has it all been potholes and rubbish collections?

    It's served them well in certain parts of London but London isn't the country.
  • flubadubflubadub Posts: 20
    Didn't Childs Hill come in at 8am, not 6am?
    Also the results for the Tories (in order of declaration) were
    Totteridge, Hendon, Garden Suburb,
    Edgware, Hale (1 gain), West Hendon (3 gains),
    Mill Hill, Oakleigh, Finchley Church End,
    Golders Green, Brunswick Park (2/3 with 1 gain), East Barnet (1/3, 1 gain),
    Childs Hill (2/3, hold), High Barnet.

    So Brunswick Park, not Childs Hill, was the result that go them to 32, but realistically Labour's hopes were dim after they not only failed to win Hale but also lost their councillor, and then destroyed when they lost West Hendon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,595
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like Labour have gained a fair number of Tory council seats in London but 0 Tory councils.

    As I thought might be the case the Jewish vote did for Labour in Barnet.

    Labour bred the identity politics monster. And it’s now bitten them on the arse. Good.
    Fair summary
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,251
    Looking at the Barnet and Hillingdon results, I;m wondering if Lab could be at risk of losing Harrow, which starts counting shortly. They only have a majority of 1 and there are a number of split wards.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Soubry is enjoying herself this morning, at Owen Jones expense:

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/992303738692882433
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    dr_spyn said:

    Epic fail.

    https://twitter.com/FromSteveHowell/status/992310498136752130

    He is not familiar with that account's views.

    If tim is a Tory troll he certainly did a very good job of hiding it on here!!
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    rottenborough said:

    Faisal: country in "silos" of around 40% for each main party. Peak May and Peak Corbyn have been passed at once.

    I think Labour may find its sub-35 % without a significant effort.

    and moon-on-a-stick promises.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,718
    DavidL said:

    The Tories fall to a net loss (which will surely increase during the day) and Labour look set to overcome the Lib Dems as the biggest net winner of seats. But the numbers are tiny. For all practical purposes it is as you were.

    The Tories will lose more seats in London, but gain elsewhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,595
    rottenborough said:

    Being the only Remain party seems to have worked out reasonably well for LibDems. Or has it all been potholes and rubbish collections?

    Has been Nimbyism too in many parts of the Home Counties
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    The Tories came very close to gaining overall control in Dudley (which they run) and Walsall (not sure)... if they had flipped the picture would have been Lab council losses.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited May 2018
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    The Tories fall to a net loss (which will surely increase during the day) and Labour look set to overcome the Lib Dems as the biggest net winner of seats. But the numbers are tiny. For all practical purposes it is as you were.

    The Tories will lose more seats in London, but gain elsewhere.
    They don't hold many more seats in London (Kingston being the exception)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like Labour have gained a fair number of Tory council seats in London but 0 Tory councils.

    As I thought might be the case the Jewish vote did for Labour in Barnet.

    Labour bred the identity politics monster. And it’s now bitten them on the arse. Good.
    If white people start voting according to identity lines (as they did in the US in 2016) Labour will find themselves out of power for a long time.
    See endless Matthew Goodwin papers, tweets etc etc.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/992318803651563520
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Looking at the Barnet and Hillingdon results, I;m wondering if Lab could be at risk of losing Harrow, which starts counting shortly. They only have a majority of 1 and there are a number of split wards.

    Harrow is somewhere we did better under Cameron, I don't think May has the same respect among the Indian community. Though I don't think Corbyn is particularly liked.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    rottenborough said:

    Soubry is enjoying herself this morning, at Owen Jones expense:

    ttps://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/992303738692882433

    Owen Jones is the new Eddie Izzard; motivated, enthusiastic and invariably wrong. :lol:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/992317648598859776
    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/992318987240341504
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    edited May 2018
    deleted. snap.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    That's nice.....remind me, who was in power in 2009?

    Windrush victim finally home after being kept out of UK for nine years
    Despite living in London since 1960, Gretel Gocan was not allowed back after she left the country to attend a funeral in her native Jamaica in 2009



    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/windrush-victim-finally-home-after-12477417
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Thanks for the Barnet tip - only £30 up but that's a win on what was billed to be a bad night!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/992318803651563520

    Not sure I follow. Who has misjudged the politics?
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. Divided and ineffective, unpleasant in patches, ineffective across the board and weak and directionless. May is hapless, the economy is not great (although not dire) - bumping along the bottom at best and there is no strategy or vision, no clear idea of "why" they are in power.

    Yet Labour still look less preferable to many swing voters and Corbyn is unassailable. Can only see a Tory win next GE.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    rottenborough said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/992318803651563520

    Not sure I follow. Who has misjudged the politics?
    He is saying Labour messed up by letting the expectations be such that our best results in those places since 1986 is seen as a bad result.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/992318651499012098

    400-odd is quite high for first time effort.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Over to Mrs May:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/992311194156285954
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,208
    CarlottaVance said:

    That's nice.....remind me, who was in power in 2009?

    Windrush victim finally home after being kept out of UK for nine years
    Despite living in London since 1960, Gretel Gocan was not allowed back after she left the country to attend a funeral in her native Jamaica in 2009



    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/windrush-victim-finally-home-after-12477417

    Not sure anyone was but Brown was in office.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,371
    Morning all - I'm just heading off to my count. Laters...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Remember the Croydon Survation poll putting Lab on 50% to Con 37%? According to JohnLoony the actual result was Lab 44.6%, Con 40.0%.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    SandyRentool said:

    Morning all - I'm just heading off to my count. Laters...

    Good Luck!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Over to Mr Corbyn:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/992321585167192065
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,795
    This is a pretty clear steer for Theresa May from John Curtice regarding the "customs arrangement" embroglio.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    Absolutely fantastic night for Theresa. She's now politically immovable. If Boris, Rees-Mogg or whoever attempts to make a challenge now, Theresa can just say: if you were leading the governing party, do you think the voters would reward you with a local-election result as amazing as this? The answer is, of course, a resounding 'no'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Novara Media editor:

    https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/992300425775792135
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    rottenborough said:

    Novara Media editor:

    https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/992300425775792135

    Bless em.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    CarlottaVance said:

    Over to Mr Corbyn:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/992321585167192065

    They've already told them the message: "Why don't you f*** off and join the Tories?"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,788
    DavidL said:

    The Tories fall to a net loss (which will surely increase during the day) and Labour look set to overcome the Lib Dems as the biggest net winner of seats. But the numbers are tiny. For all practical purposes it is as you were.

    Yup, and little overall movement on council control. Something for everyone, Labour clearly coming away with less than they had hyped, Tories more than they had briefed for, so 'mixed' seems a fair summary, albeit Tories more reason to be satisfied with a mixed night, particularly given how bad it could have been.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,336
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I seem to be buffing my nails a lot this past week.

    You'll have to move onto your toenails.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Looking at the Barnet and Hillingdon results, I;m wondering if Lab could be at risk of losing Harrow, which starts counting shortly. They only have a majority of 1 and there are a number of split wards.

    I'd say they are at risk of losing it.

    Those 3 red wards on the south-eastern edge of the borough look a bit vulnerable in the light of recent results.

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2014/10/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,788
    rottenborough said:

    Novara Media editor:

    https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/992300425775792135

    Whatever complacencies the Tories may have had or still have, I don't think mocking a polemicist like Owen Jones has much at all to do with it - he's high profile, and hypes Labour's performance massively, and it didn't match the hype.. And the idea when people attack one of your side that means the attackers must be shaken is one of the laziest of partisan defences out there. It doesn't have to be so complicated - they might just have fun mocking Owen Jones.

    I'm also fairly sure that it will be easy to find examples, from all sides, of where a party claimed the results in local elections showed how the country was turning against their opponent, even where their opponent had an overall increase. Because people spin anything and everything after local elections.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Slackbladder said:

    rottenborough said:

    Novara Media editor:

    https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/992300425775792135

    Bless em.
    I'm looking forward to my "luxury communism".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,788
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I seem to be buffing my nails a lot this past week.

    You'll have to move onto your toenails.
    Or use his winnings to have someone else buff the nails for him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,788
    JonCisBack said:

    Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. .

    Without wishing to pry, what sort of ballpark of a lifetime are we talking? If you're 30 that's not quite as much of a cutting remark about their total ineptitude as if you are 90.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2018
    The big picture seems to be:

    - Little change overall
    - Labour made gains in heartland metropolitan seats, but even there not as many as expected
    - Very worrying results for Labour in the Midlands
    - The Tories seem to have picked up most of the low-hanging UKIP fruit, and otherwise are stable
    - I think it's likely that Brandon Lewis and Conservative head office team are improving the effectiveness of Tory campaigning and targeting
    - Good results for the LibDems in a few areas especially Richmond, but overall I'm surprised they haven't done better

    So a mixed bag overall, which on balance is pretty good for Theresa May.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,788
    Has Cable been around at all?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    AndyJS said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Looking at the Barnet and Hillingdon results, I;m wondering if Lab could be at risk of losing Harrow, which starts counting shortly. They only have a majority of 1 and there are a number of split wards.

    I'd say they are at risk of losing it.

    Those 3 red wards on the south-eastern edge of the borough look a bit vulnerable in the light of recent results.

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2014/10/
    they also have sizeable Jewish populations......
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    rottenborough said:

    Slackbladder said:

    rottenborough said:

    Novara Media editor:

    https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/992300425775792135

    Bless em.
    I'm looking forward to my "luxury communism".
    A luxury gulag awaits the non believers.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    rottenborough said:

    Novara Media editor:

    https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/992300425775792135

    slow hand clap.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    geoffw said:

    This is a pretty clear steer for Theresa May from John Curtice regarding the "customs arrangement" embroglio.

    The best way to satisfy Leave voters’ aspirations for a strong economy and a country that’s respected in the world is to exit from Brexit.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,038
    Another Richard I was getting a bit stroppy in the last thread - sorry.

    Richard Tyndall, last thread - thanks for that post.

    Just to clarify my comment on Equity Release, unlike the bad old days where you gave up part of your property these days they are what are called 'Lifetime mortgages' and you retain 100% ownership. They are just mortgages. They have specific terms so for instance you can (up to a point of course) not even pay the interest and let it roll up.

    But at the end of the day they are just mortgage loans.

    So Another Richard, according to your logic you would ban these as well and deprive older people from releasing capital from their homes. After all it is an interest only loan repayable on death (unless you repay earlier) and you don't even have to pay the interest as you go along so worse than what you object to.

    These are much better than the old days when in effect you sold part of your house.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MaraudingWinger/status/992327039343525888
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,038
    kjh said:

    Another Richard I was getting a bit stroppy in the last thread - sorry.

    Richard Tyndall, last thread - thanks for that post.

    Just to clarify my comment on Equity Release, unlike the bad old days where you gave up part of your property these days they are what are called 'Lifetime mortgages' and you retain 100% ownership. They are just mortgages. They have specific terms so for instance you can (up to a point of course) not even pay the interest and let it roll up.

    But at the end of the day they are just mortgage loans.

    So Another Richard, according to your logic you would ban these as well and deprive older people from releasing capital from their homes. After all it is an interest only loan repayable on death (unless you repay earlier) and you don't even have to pay the interest as you go along so worse than what you object to.

    These are much better than the old days when in effect you sold part of your house.

    My only objection to these is the hype - Just give me the damn interest only loan.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    JonCisBack said:

    Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. Divided and ineffective, unpleasant in patches, ineffective across the board and weak and directionless. May is hapless, the economy is not great (although not dire) - bumping along the bottom at best and there is no strategy or vision, no clear idea of "why" they are in power.

    Yet Labour still look less preferable to many swing voters and Corbyn is unassailable. Can only see a Tory win next GE.

    The economy is not great???????

    We have record employment, record low unemployment, low interest rates, increasing wages. If you want a job you can have one.. The delusion on this site regarding the economy is off the scale.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I could never get properly involved in politics. There's too much bitterness, people refusing to accept when they've done badly, etc.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/992327428214226944?s=21
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    rottenborough said:

    Novara Media editor:

    https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/992300425775792135

    Bubble
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/992328694302683136
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/992327428214226944?s=21

    That was my take, as a Labour supporter I'd want progress on that over the next couple of years but given Corbyn's campaigning ability, potential Brexit compromises and governing fatigue every reason to feel optimistic about a future election as a Labour supporter.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,795
    currystar said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. Divided and ineffective, unpleasant in patches, ineffective across the board and weak and directionless. May is hapless, the economy is not great (although not dire) - bumping along the bottom at best and there is no strategy or vision, no clear idea of "why" they are in power.

    Yet Labour still look less preferable to many swing voters and Corbyn is unassailable. Can only see a Tory win next GE.

    The economy is not great???????

    We have record employment, record low unemployment, low interest rates, increasing wages. If you want a job you can have one.. The delusion on this site regarding the economy is off the scale.
    Right. My only reservation is the lack of balance as evidenced in the deficits (current a/c and budget) and in the housing market.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Good morning and greetings, been lurking for a while but dropping in today. Norwich will be a sea of red later but locally Yarmouth will be the interesting one.
    Labour have, I think, lost permanent support amongst the Jewish community looking nationwide, the interview with the defeated Jewish Labour chap in Barnet was visceral and damning. They also need to start looking seriously at working class towns in the Midlands and North with trepidation see 2010 to 2015 Scotland, but I think can look to make gains in non posh areas of Essex, Kent and the SW. Weird night.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,346
    Redbridge now Lab 51 Con 12. (was Lab 35, Con 25, LD 3)
    Cons lose half their seats, LDs gone.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/992327428214226944?s=21

    facile analysis of local elections is facile


  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    AndyJS said:

    I could never get properly involved in politics. There's too much bitterness, people refusing to accept when they've done badly, etc.

    It is the thoughtless tribalism and the slavish devotion to the Party Line that baffles me. Original thoughts and constructive dialogue seem to be banned from the faithful.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Mr. Paris, one intriguing aspect of F1 is that things constantly change. Temperature affects tyres, wind affects different cars more or less, drivers have good and bad days, the cars are updated all season long.

    Politics is a little similar. Things will have changed by the time of the next election. Not least because of the EU. How things will shift is unclear, but the changes could be dramatic and have equally significant electoral implications.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,483
    TheJezziah said:



    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/992327428214226944?s=21

    That was my take, as a Labour supporter I'd want progress on that over the next couple of years but given Corbyn's campaigning ability, potential Brexit compromises and governing fatigue every reason to feel optimistic about a future election as a Labour supporter.
    The last two may very well hurt the Tories at the next GE. And I don't underestimate Corbyn's campaigning ability. But it didn't help Labour all that much this time round so possibly you risk being over-optimistic in assuming that the next election will be a rerun of 2017 as far as Corbyn is concerned.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,249
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    rottenborough said:

    Slackbladder said:

    rottenborough said:

    Novara Media editor:

    https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/992300425775792135

    Bless em.
    I'm looking forward to my "luxury communism".
    A luxury gulag awaits the non believers.
    It's called Middlesbrough.....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Surely the thing to take more than anything else, is that the next election is unlikely to produce a majority for either party.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,323
    Anyhoo.

    LIVERPOOL F.C.

    I think I might need to sell the souls of family and pimp out my girlfriend to get a ticket for the final, but I think I’ll do it.

    Got to hand it the Ukrainians, the equivalent of their Premier Inns in Kyiv which are normally £50 a night are charging £3,000 per night on final night.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like Labour have gained a fair number of Tory council seats in London but 0 Tory councils.

    As I thought might be the case the Jewish vote did for Labour in Barnet.

    Labour bred the identity politics monster. And it’s now bitten them on the arse. Good.
    If white people start voting according to identity lines (as they did in the US in 2016) Labour will find themselves out of power for a long time.

    Doesn't that depend on what identity white people feel they have? I am white, I am not sure I have the same sense of my identity as white, pro-Brexit Tories have of theirs.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,323
    Slackbladder said:

    Surely the thing to take more than anything else, is that the next election is unlikely to produce a majority for either party.

    Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, and Johnny Mercer are the only Tory MPs who can lead the Tories to a majority next time.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Redbridge now Lab 51 Con 12. (was Lab 35, Con 25, LD 3)
    Cons lose half their seats, LDs gone.

    Tories missed one seat in Redbridge by 10 votes, can't remember which ward it was.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Cyclefree said:

    TheJezziah said:



    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/992327428214226944?s=21

    That was my take, as a Labour supporter I'd want progress on that over the next couple of years but given Corbyn's campaigning ability, potential Brexit compromises and governing fatigue every reason to feel optimistic about a future election as a Labour supporter.
    The last two may very well hurt the Tories at the next GE. And I don't underestimate Corbyn's campaigning ability. But it didn't help Labour all that much this time round so possibly you risk being over-optimistic in assuming that the next election will be a rerun of 2017 as far as Corbyn is concerned.
    Jezza will also be 73? at the next election, and have been leader for 7 years. A lot can happen between now and then.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Cyclefree said:

    TheJezziah said:



    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/992327428214226944?s=21

    That was my take, as a Labour supporter I'd want progress on that over the next couple of years but given Corbyn's campaigning ability, potential Brexit compromises and governing fatigue every reason to feel optimistic about a future election as a Labour supporter.
    The last two may very well hurt the Tories at the next GE. And I don't underestimate Corbyn's campaigning ability. But it didn't help Labour all that much this time round so possibly you risk being over-optimistic in assuming that the next election will be a rerun of 2017 as far as Corbyn is concerned.
    I'm not taking anything for granted the Tories winning the next election is certainly a possibility, I really couldn't see a landslide (outside of some extreme events) but a decent majority if things work out in their favour is plausible. A repeat could happen as well leaving the Tories hanging on but it doesn't seem delusional to feel optimistic about Labour making gains from where we are in the next election, from not just the Tories but the SNP as well.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Paris, one intriguing aspect of F1 is that things constantly change. Temperature affects tyres, wind affects different cars more or less, drivers have good and bad days, the cars are updated all season long.

    Politics is a little similar. Things will have changed by the time of the next election. Not least because of the EU. How things will shift is unclear, but the changes could be dramatic and have equally significant electoral implications.

    The only thing I think you can get from the locals is an idea of the state of the opposition. Practically every single one in my admittedly short experience has seen a kicking to the party in power.

    Governments typically recover.
This discussion has been closed.