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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON still on 28 percent in ComRes online poll
I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy
Agree 23% (+8 since March 2012)
Disagree 50% (-9)
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However, the big question is, who holds the public's trust on the economy? The economy has now spent five years at the top of Ipsos MORI Issues Index, and economic credibility is something Labour have fought hard to win back since losing it in 2008.
Having narrowed the gap to the Conservatives recently this latest poll shows the Tories holding an 18 point lead over Labour as the party with the best policies on managing the economy 38 per cent to 20 per cent.
http://www.channel4.com/news/politics-ipsos-mori-polling-labour-lib-dem-conservative
Ed Miliband's "We are bringing socialism back to Britain", is either inspired or the worst gaffe in British political history. I know where my money will be going.
Your predecessors probably lost money when the marxist ideology of the NHS was brought in.
'Evening tim. I think the drink has been getting to you.'
No,it's Ed using his family as props.
Did the polling take place this afternoon on the trains down to Brighton?
Trust in Miliband and Balls "to make the right decisions about the economy" rising since March 2012?
This is Saturday night at the Brighton Apollo.
What on earth would be the results if the facts were known?
Women and men view the Tories the same.
Men are more negative than women on Labour.
I expect that is because (a) the recovery is still at an early stage and hasn't really filtered through into the general consciousness yet and (b) women felt the loss of child benefit more acutely
People have more common sense than you give them credit for (a typical left wing failing). Trust them, they will see through all the fluff and work out what is best for themselves.
Plus of course as you are loading up on OEs yourself the sting is drawn somewhat.
@TimGattITV: Ed Miliband on Damian McBride: "I complained to Gordon [Brown] about what Damian was up to...I was worried by him" http://t.co/zfMoVVhT4U
Con 39
Lab 27
Ld 21
Not far off the final 2010 result.
Seek help.
Place your bets...
As Mike pointed out in August the Tories had a lead of 22% on the economy (Mori 45% to 23%) just 3 weeks before the 1997 GE. So with the Tory lead 3% less today are you suggesting another Labour landslide in the offing? I am sure you could not possibly comment!
Let's not waste time arguing whether they're correct. But it looks as though the Eds' "Falling living standards" push is having an impact. Osborne's jubilation over statistics that aren't reflected in people's actual experience strikes a false note.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10325076/Ed-Miliband-Im-bringing-socialism-back-to-Britain.html
In 1997 the electorate took competent management of the economy for granted. Under John Major the economy grew by 22% at a compound rate of 1% per quarter over five years. The best performance for any post war UK government.
In 2010 the electorate took note of what happens when madmen take control of the economy. Under Blair and Brown, between 2005 and 2010, the UK economy grew by 2% at a compound rate of 0.1% per quarter over five years. The second worst performance of any post war government.
Are you suggesting that voters will have forgotten the events and impact of the third Blair-Brown Labour term when they mark their ballot papers in 2015?
'Miliband says anyone caught briefing against colleagues while he's leader will be sacked: "Totally unacceptable" http://t.co/zfMoVVhT4U
Has he forgotten about the Lasagne dinners or is he just too weak?
'www.dailymail.co.uk/.../Ed-Balls-Yvette-Cooper-dish-trouble-Miliband-las...
29 Jan 2012 - ED Balls and Yvette Cooper have been accused of plotting against Ed Miliband at a lasagne dinner. The husband-and-wife Labour duo wined ...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
@ToryTreasury: Important firms not paying min wage are punished, but interesting Lab announcing penalties policy Unite calling for http://t.co/Qtv1EVIREg
Compare with the Thatcher years when you had Harry Enfield's 'loadsamoney' character. And what was Loadsamoney's job? A plasterer.
Not to mention that there's always money available for Cameron to give to foreigners, for Cameron to throw at political problems or for Cameron to spend on his pet projects. For that matter there's always money available for Cameron to spend on his wife's pet projects as well.
Martin Bright in The Times http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/thunderer/article3875368.ece
Surely it conflates what he should *do* with what he should *promise*. Potentially a misleading result.
To be fair, though, it is easy to muddle up the price and the value of something
"Are you suggesting that voters will have forgotten the events and impact of the third Blair-Brown Labour term when they mark their ballot papers in 2015?"
They certainly seemed to have forgotten the Black Wednesday and the Tory's ERM fiasco quickly enough
Good polls for labour,the tories need to fight labour on the cost of living because at the moment labour winning hands down,thats with labour not offering much.
Ed's "Falling living standards" push is as short sighted as their "Too far, too fast" line in 2010. It is not so much jumping on a bandwagon as catching a non-stop train going in the wrong direction.
Improvements in living standards are coincident economic indicators. They follow other economic changes and are coincident with periods of sustained economic growth. George Osborne will not need to continue to outperform all the UK's major competitors, as he has on growth, for living standards to improve as a consequence of a cyclical period of sustained economic growth.
So like the two Eds' line on austerity, their new line on living standards will be overcome by obvious and tangible outcomes, making them "wrong again" on a fundamental line of opposition attack.
And before you come back with the difference between perception and reality, you should note that 'consumer expectations' are generally considered to be the last of the leading economic indicators. When indices of consumer expectations turn up - as has been the case over the past few months - then this is interpreted by economists as being a confirmation of an economic upturn and the beginning of a sustained period of on trend growth.
Ed Balls should know all this so why he is pursuing this line of attack is beyond comprehension. Maybe he thinks the electorate are idiots? He was after all educated at Keble and Harvard.
Alastair Campbell publicly lampooned Damian McBride for the “sickening” decision to serialise excerpts from his book, Power Trip, in a newspaper on the eve of a crucial Labour party conference. The Downing Street former director of communications said he would “not be able to live with himself” had he allowed Labour to be “damaged” in such a way.
In response to the publication in the Daily Mail this week of segments of the political memoir – reportedly for a fee of £130,000 – Mr Campbell wrote on the social networking site: “I do not blame the Mail for buying Labour memoirs, but cannot respect Labour people who sell them knowing they are being bought to damage”.
He went on to attack Mr McBride for his lack of “principles”, lack of “morals” and described the move as a “red line” – adding: “You really are odious. I do hope you dare to go to conference.” http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article3875673.ece
Both Major and Brown suffered "external shocks" to the economy.
Major suffered Black Wednesday and the ERM exit. He responded by delivering the highest level of growth over his term of office since the war.
Brown suffered a global banking crisis. He responded by leading the country through the deepest and longest recession since the war and virtually non-existent growth over five years.
That's what the voters will remember, Olly.
Here is the suitably named Palazzo Hedone in Ragusa awaiting your retirement.
http://bit.ly/19se1YT
Should only take a couple more quarters of central London property bubble for you to be able to afford it as a holiday home.
Idle curiosity, though - do you ever get annoyed with her, and if so do you tell her off with paragraphs of fury like on pb, telling her she's a stupid moron who for two pence you'd sell to cannibals in Papua New Guinea? Or do you say, "Um, maybe don't do that, darling" like a liberal Guardian parent?
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
So like the GDP path, the two Eds will waits in unrelieved suspense for bad news to arrive. And what happens:
- The predicted triple dip never arrives.
- The UK grows while the rest of the EU sinks
- The double dip is written out of the books by an ONS revision
- The UK grows not only faster than all EU countries but Japan and the US as well.
Canute sat at the sea's edge to prove to his people that a King, even with divine powers, could not alter the ebb and flow of the tide.
The two Eds together are not as wise as good old Knut.
They have decided that between them they can defy the natural law and logic of economic ebb and flow. They have chosen to sit on sea's edge when the tide is coming in. It is the wrong call.
@Greg_Callus: Miliband leading on increasing NMW fines from £5k to £50k. Harder to think of a less-effective policy that could actually be made a headline
It is best to disregard youthful folly and misplaced adulation when assessing the acts and art of the mature.
"Labour 'apprentice for each foreign worker' scheme"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24190746
I'm currently unsure what I think about it - the devil will be in the details. On the face of it, it is an interesting idea. However, will it just lead to even more subcontracting? (Yay!)
There's also a question of what sort of highly-skilled jobs could be created for apprentices in our area of industry, where it often takes a degree-minimum (or relevant experience) to do anything productive. You cannot teach someone to design an RF chip in a couple of years, or write the software for it. Therefore the apprentice jobs might just be dogsbody testing work, or sweeping the floors.
Other industries may vary, but Labour might be better trying to concentrate undergraduates into taking courses that industry needs - for example, giving tax breaks to companies who sponsor youths through university.
90%+ of people won't even be aware of Labour's campaign on living standards.
Indeed 90%+ of people won't be aware of anything any politician has said in the last few weeks.
@Greg_Callus: Increasing sentences ten-fold for Bigamy (contrary to s57 Offences Against the Person Act 1861) would be a more substantive policy than this
@suttonnick: Sunday Times front page - "Labour plans have ‘£27bn black hole’" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #lab13
http://news.sky.com/story/1144892/kenya-if-you-were-muslim-they-let-you-go
On Campbell/McBride: whilst both despicable, I think Campbell probably edges it for 45 minutes and Dr. David Kelly (not denying his name, effectively outing him to the press).
That said, both men ought to be put in a sack with a rooster, a dog, a snake and a weasel and then thrown into the Thames.
Well actually I say "feel sorry for" but they are probably Labour voters anyway so consider that sympathy rationed.
Mr. M, it'd be interesting to see if the growth in long-term youth unemployment coincided with the introduction of the minimum wage.
They might get tired of hearing about it though
Put them in the same sack, no animals, and throw them in the Seine.
[Incidentally, it's a reference to an old Roman punishment for something or other. Parricide, perhaps].
I suspect that they had never needed to learn that in their personal lives either.
And judging by the national finances that Cameron and Osborne have presided over they've still not learnt that fact.
The offender was taken to the Field of Mars outside Rome, stripped and had their feet placed on two pedestals placed a couple of feet apart. The offender was then publicly whipped whilst the citizenry threw whatever objects came to hand.
The offender was then placed in a sack with a snake, a chicken and a dog and thrown into the Tiber.
" He half acknowledges that he understands what he might face from the Conservatives. "By any means necessary. That is their modus operandi, isn't it? By any means necessary.""
I mean, really, what does it take? The party of Damien McBride about whom he was worried. The party of Campbell, Whelen and Draper. The party of Mr "making whites angry" appointed by him as a spokesman on immigration. And yet I have no doubt whatsoever that he genuinely still believes that his party is in some way morally superior.
It's a illness. It really is.
FG - 25%
FF - 21%
SF - 18%
Lab - 11%
You can see why FG / FF is the favourite for next Government (5/4 with Paddy Power) as no other option looks viable but it would be a political earthquake.
60 / 40 for the Senate to be abolished in next month's referendum, 1/3 with Paddy Power.