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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Elizabeth Warren trounces betting favourite, Bernie Sanders, i

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  • Options
    chloechloe Posts: 308
    Just been to vote in Barnet. It was fairly quiet.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Miss Chloe, sunny there?

    Mr. Jonathan, decreasing the top rate of income tax has been good, not bad, for the public finances. What matters is the revenue generated not how much individuals are hit. The punitive model of taxation proposed by those greedy for others' wealth would suggest a 100% income tax above a certain threshold would be a good thing. Lower tax rates discourages avoidance/evasion. They're a very good thing.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I was hoping there was an outside chance they might start using English.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088
    Well, there’s RoI and Malta to consider.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,900

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I voted a few days ago as I have a postal vote. A bit odd that. I asked for one for the EU referendum but only for that but they continue to give it to me. Which doesn’t say much for them following my instructions.

    Anyway the Tories and the Lib Dems, who have been the only ones canvassing, were still putting material through my front door at 10 pm last night. Poor sods.

    Re this (fpt) -“And maybe the career opportunities wont exist in a computerised and globalised economy”, I do wonder. IT problems last week in TSB; this week with NHS breast screening - and these are by no means isolated examples. The idea that there will be no work in a computerised world strikes me as optimistic. We will probably spend our time putting right all the cock ups caused by those intelligent computers, just as we now spend our time trying to sort out the messes caused by intelligent humans.

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    It occurs to me that we are getting pretty good at automating the very easy things - but it's also true that some of the very hard problems are more amenable to attack by computer (the game of Go; genome sequencing; prime number discovery... etc).

    The big area in the middle will shrink over time.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    edited May 2018
    timmo said:

    Bit cross with Shadsys mob yestrrday.
    Tried to put a double on the locals..lib dems to win Richmond and Tories to hang on in Kingston..they would only accept singles and then only up to £50...
    They are meant to be bookies.

    You do realise those are errm - well I was going to say related contingencies. But they are actually negatively related (The Lib Dems are shorter in Kingston than Richmond) so looking at the prices they should probably offer you 5-1 (3-1 x 1-2 odds).

    But there is no way anyone except @Shadsy might offer that bet as they'll have a general rule against multiples on politics in the same election.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,900

    On the topic: Hasn't Warren ruled herself out by stating she will definitely complete a Senate term?

    I'm sure, if convinced by the weight of popular demand for her candidature, she'll be able to parse that commitment.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,211

    Mr. 86, what sort of ID? The voting card?

    And one of driving license, passport etc. It’s part of a trial in Bromley, Gosport, Swindon, Watford and Woking.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    "“The services survey adds to signs that the rate of economic growth remained disappointingly subdued at the start of the second quarter. The three PMI surveys collectively showed only a muted rebound in business activity after being disrupted by heavy snowfall in March, failing to regain February’s pace of growth to suggest that the underlying performance of the economy has continued to deteriorate.

    “The overall expansion signalled by the three surveys in April was the second-weakest since the Brexit vote, pointing to a quarterly rate of GDP growth of around 0.2% at the start of the second quarter."

    https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/dd2aa322e7cf46d18dbc51edfb898bf8
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    chloechloe Posts: 308
    chloe said:

    Just been to vote in Barnet. It was fairly quiet.

    Morris Dancer, no rain forecast today so hopefully people will get out and vote.
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    ABLAABLABLAABL Posts: 23
    Not a great start for my Bernie Sanders punt but surely Warren would be rehashing 2016 and playing into Donald Trump hands... https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/political-punts.html
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    tlg86 said:

    Mr. 86, what sort of ID? The voting card?

    And one of driving license, passport etc. It’s part of a trial in Bromley, Gosport, Swindon, Watford and Woking.
    Best way to weed out the Labour voters xD
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088
    tlg86 said:

    Mr. 86, what sort of ID? The voting card?

    And one of driving license, passport etc. It’s part of a trial in Bromley, Gosport, Swindon, Watford and Woking.
    Did you see anyone having problems?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I voted a few days ago as I have a postal vote. A bit odd that. I asked for one for the EU referendum but only for that but they continue to give it to me. Which doesn’t say much for them following my instructions.

    Anyway the Tories and the Lib Dems, who have been the only ones canvassing, were still putting material through my front door at 10 pm last night. Poor sods.

    Re this (fpt) -“And maybe the career opportunities wont exist in a computerised and globalised economy”, I do wonder. IT problems last week in TSB; this week with NHS breast screening - and these are by no means isolated examples. The idea that there will be no work in a computerised world strikes me as optimistic. We will probably spend our time putting right all the cock ups caused by those intelligent computers, just as we now spend our time trying to sort out the messes caused by intelligent humans.

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    Yep, they thought that making 5,000 cars a week was no more difficult than making a few hundred. They’ll get there in the end, apparently Musk and a pile of managers are doing critical path analysis on the factory floor instead of on their computers, because the models bear little resemblance to the reality! It turns out that troubleshooting a factory full of new technology is, well, rocket science.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. 86, ah, so presumably you knew in advance?

    I'll take my passport along anyway.

    Miss Chloe, yes, it's nice here (Yorkshire) too.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,900

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I voted a few days ago as I have a postal vote. A bit odd that. I asked for one for the EU referendum but only for that but they continue to give it to me. Which doesn’t say much for them following my instructions.

    Anyway the Tories and the Lib Dems, who have been the only ones canvassing, were still putting material through my front door at 10 pm last night. Poor sods.

    Re this (fpt) -“And maybe the career opportunities wont exist in a computerised and globalised economy”, I do wonder. IT problems last week in TSB; this week with NHS breast screening - and these are by no means isolated examples. The idea that there will be no work in a computerised world strikes me as optimistic. We will probably spend our time putting right all the cock ups caused by those intelligent computers, just as we now spend our time trying to sort out the messes caused by intelligent humans.

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    That is true - but the Tesla has far fewer parts than a vehicle with a conventional drivetrain, and a far shorter supply chain. The potential to improve production very quickly is still there.
    The real question is whether Tesla can achieve volume production of electric vehicles before the major auto manufacturers manage to do the same (and before the capital markets lose belief in them).
    The other threat to them is China, which is committing very large resources indeed to developing electric vehicle manufacturing.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I voted a few days ago as I have a postal vote. A bit odd that. I asked for one for the EU referendum but only for that but they continue to give it to me. Which doesn’t say much for them following my instructions.

    Anyway the Tories and the Lib Dems, who have been the only ones canvassing, were still putting material through my front door at 10 pm last night. Poor sods.

    Re this (fpt) -“And maybe the career opportunities wont exist in a computerised and globalised economy”, I do wonder. IT problems last week in TSB; this week with NHS breast screening - and these are by no means isolated examples. The idea that there will be no work in a computerised world strikes me as optimistic. We will probably spend our time putting right all the cock ups caused by those intelligent computers, just as we now spend our time trying to sort out the messes caused by intelligent humans.

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    Yep, they thought that making 5,000 cars a week was no more difficult than making a few hundred. They’ll get there in the end, apparently Musk and a pile of managers are doing critical path analysis on the factory floor instead of on their computers, because the models bear little resemblance to the reality! It turns out that troubleshooting a factory full of new technology is, well, rocket science.
    Musk will sort it, he is a brilliant entrepreneur not some no mark CEO.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    edited May 2018

    Mr. 86, ah, so presumably you knew in advance?

    I'll take my passport along anyway.

    Miss Chloe, yes, it's nice here (Yorkshire) too.

    Do you get to vote for David Herdson ?

    Left out here, no vote for me today ;(
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,211

    Mr. 86, ah, so presumably you knew in advance?

    I'll take my passport along anyway.

    Miss Chloe, yes, it's nice here (Yorkshire) too.

    Yes, they’ve been advertising it a lot in the run up to the elections and it’s very clear on the polling card what you need to have.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    tlg86 said:

    Mr. 86, ah, so presumably you knew in advance?

    I'll take my passport along anyway.

    Miss Chloe, yes, it's nice here (Yorkshire) too.

    Yes, they’ve been advertising it a lot in the run up to the elections and it’s very clear on the polling card what you need to have.
    It does rather raise the question what you're meant to do if you don't drive or go abroad though.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,211

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. 86, what sort of ID? The voting card?

    And one of driving license, passport etc. It’s part of a trial in Bromley, Gosport, Swindon, Watford and Woking.
    Did you see anyone having problems?
    No, a fair few people had already voted. I stil think it’s a waste of time if they don’t sort out postal vote fraud.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    I think Trump is in for a long hot Summer,Summer Zervos to be precise and there's still a stench of urine around.Does Putin have a copy of the pee-pee tape?I sense Putin has Trump not so much over a barrel but more over a piss-pot.
    Summer Zervos is strutting her stuff and it's v.bad news for Trump.Happy.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. 86, ah, so presumably you knew in advance?

    I'll take my passport along anyway.

    Miss Chloe, yes, it's nice here (Yorkshire) too.

    Yes, they’ve been advertising it a lot in the run up to the elections and it’s very clear on the polling card what you need to have.
    It does rather raise the question what you're meant to do if you don't drive or go abroad though.
    Bus pass has a photo on it! At least ours has.
  • Options
    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    Bit cross with Shadsys mob yestrrday.
    Tried to put a double on the locals..lib dems to win Richmond and Tories to hang on in Kingston..they would only accept singles and then only up to £50...
    They are meant to be bookies.

    You do realise those are errm - well I was going to say related contingencies. But they are actually negatively related (The Lib Dems are shorter in Kingston than Richmond) so looking at the prices they should probably offer you 5-1 (3-1 x 1-2 odds).

    But there is no way anyone except @Shadsy might offer that bet as they'll have a general rule against multiples on politics in the same election.
    Also had a punt on NOC in Sutton..some strange things going on there
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I voted a few days ago as I have a postal vote. A bit odd that. I asked for one for the EU referendum but only for that but they continue to give it to me. Which doesn’t say much for them following my instructions.

    Anyway the Tories and the Lib Dems, who have been the only ones canvassing, were still putting material through my front door at 10 pm last night. Poor sods.

    Re this (fpt) -“And maybe the career opportunities wont exist in a computerised and globalised economy”, I do wonder. IT problems last week in TSB; this week with NHS breast screening - and these are by no means isolated examples. The idea that there will be no work in a computerised world strikes me as optimistic. We will probably spend our time putting right all the cock ups caused by those intelligent computers, just as we now spend our time trying to sort out the messes caused by intelligent humans.

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    That is true - but the Tesla has far fewer parts than a vehicle with a conventional drivetrain, and a far shorter supply chain. The potential to improve production very quickly is still there.
    The real question is whether Tesla can achieve volume production of electric vehicles before the major auto manufacturers manage to do the same (and before the capital markets lose belief in them).
    The other threat to them is China, which is committing very large resources indeed to developing electric vehicle manufacturing.
    https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/ is riveting reading, bearing in mind that contributors are in the main enthusiasts rather than haters. The overall impression is that the owner's experience is akin to driving an intel 286 running a pirated copy of Windows 95, with a wheel added at each corner. This is not a good market to be an early adopter in.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,211
    edited May 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. 86, ah, so presumably you knew in advance?

    I'll take my passport along anyway.

    Miss Chloe, yes, it's nice here (Yorkshire) too.

    Yes, they’ve been advertising it a lot in the run up to the elections and it’s very clear on the polling card what you need to have.
    It does rather raise the question what you're meant to do if you don't drive or go abroad though.
    https://www.woking.gov.uk/council/voterID

    I should have used my rail season ticket to see if they were on the ball!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I voted a few days ago as I have a postal vote. A bit odd that. I asked for one for the EU referendum but only for that but they continue to give it to me. Which doesn’t say much for them following my instructions.

    Anyway the Tories and the Lib Dems, who have been the only ones canvassing, were still putting material through my front door at 10 pm last night. Poor sods.

    Re this (fpt) -“And maybe the career opportunities wont exist in a computerised and globalised economy”, I do wonder. IT problems last week in TSB; this week with NHS breast screening - and these are by no means isolated examples. The idea that there will be no work in a computerised world strikes me as optimistic. We will probably spend our time putting right all the cock ups caused by those intelligent computers, just as we now spend our time trying to sort out the messes caused by intelligent humans.

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    Yep, they thought that making 5,000 cars a week was no more difficult than making a few hundred. They’ll get there in the end, apparently Musk and a pile of managers are doing critical path analysis on the factory floor instead of on their computers, because the models bear little resemblance to the reality! It turns out that troubleshooting a factory full of new technology is, well, rocket science.
    Musk will sort it, he is a brilliant entrepreneur not some no mark CEO.
    Yep, the Tesla team is learning new skills quickly and they’re set up to be able to change things around if they need to. They’ve got half a million deposits for the Model 3 so they’ll find a way of making them!
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,811

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I voted a few days ago as I have a postal vote. A bit odd that. I asked for one for the EU referendum but only for that but they continue to give it to me. Which doesn’t say much for them following my instructions.

    Anyway the Tories and the Lib Dems, who have been the only ones canvassing, were still putting material through my front door at 10 pm last night. Poor sods.

    Re this (fpt) -“And maybe the career opportunities wont exist in a computerised and globalised economy”, I do wonder. IT problems last week in TSB; this week with NHS breast screening - and these are by no means isolated examples. The idea that there will be no work in a computerised world strikes me as optimistic. We will probably spend our time putting right all the cock ups caused by those intelligent computers, just as we now spend our time trying to sort out the messes caused by intelligent humans.

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    The difference between Tesla and GM in the eighties is that GM already had the scale and the financial resources. Tesla depends on investors keeping the money flowing in their direction. Tesla is a valuable company but not necessarily as the mass market manufacturer Musk wants to make it into. The intellectual property could be sold off if the investors so decide.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Oh but London is more important and who wins Barnet or Wandsworth or Kensington is more important because London thinks it's better and more important!!

    Ultimately will it make a huge practical difference to people's lives who runs those councils - same austerity same council tax rises as the only source to offset central government cuts. Westminster and Wandsworth have the lowest council taxes and some of the best services and many boroughs with the highest council taxes have the worst ones,

    Of more interest of course may be what happens in the potential 'Momentum' run councils like Haringey. Will they seek to do something more radical and even refuse to set balanced budgets 1980s style.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    timmo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    Bit cross with Shadsys mob yestrrday.
    Tried to put a double on the locals..lib dems to win Richmond and Tories to hang on in Kingston..they would only accept singles and then only up to £50...
    They are meant to be bookies.

    You do realise those are errm - well I was going to say related contingencies. But they are actually negatively related (The Lib Dems are shorter in Kingston than Richmond) so looking at the prices they should probably offer you 5-1 (3-1 x 1-2 odds).

    But there is no way anyone except @Shadsy might offer that bet as they'll have a general rule against multiples on politics in the same election.
    Also had a punt on NOC in Sutton..some strange things going on there
    Personally I am LD Sutton 5-4, Tories Westminster&Wandsworth 29-20, Labour Barnet 8-13. Hopefully a couple will come in.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,903


    Mr. Jonathan, decreasing the top rate of income tax has been good, not bad, for the public finances. What matters is the revenue generated not how much individuals are hit. The punitive model of taxation proposed by those greedy for others' wealth would suggest a 100% income tax above a certain threshold would be a good thing. Lower tax rates discourages avoidance/evasion. They're a very good thing.

    Morning Mr Dancer :)

    I know full well you aren't a fan of high taxes or of any of that "socialist" nonsense and I would argue the problem is as much cultural as economic. We are encouraged to spend, consume and to believe our quality of life is improved by the number and quality of the "things" we have and for an economy predicated on manufacturing that's understandable.

    The converse of that is we still think of and rely on the State for the basics such as clearing our rubbish, educating our children and looking after us when we are old or sick. The truth is the State cannot, under the current economic and taxational model, do that any more. One option would be Scandinavian style levels of personal and corporate taxation to fund health, care and public services but I assume you and many others would reject that.

    We are then left with the American style model where those who can afford things like health insurance can have world-class medical treatment and the best retirement life money can buy but for those who don't have the funds the options are limited and millions of people in the US literally cannot afford to be sick.

    The same is true here in some respects - those who provide the care here do their best but poverty and dignity don't sit well together and if we want to enjoy a dignified retirement and later life there are some sharp questions we would be asking about whether that extra foreign holiday or that extra gadget was really worth it.

    We want Scandinavian style services but don't want to pay for them in terms of giving money to the Government to provide them. Fine but let's encourage a different economic culture predicated on some different values of economic responsibility, familial responsibility and community responsibility. Looking after ourselves, our families and the people around us ought to be good solid Conservative values but I see no evidence modern Tories think like that.

    Let's have proper tax breaks and incentives for individuals to develop personal care plans and to care for family members. Let's make full-time caring a recognised, serious and valued profession and remunerate accordingly and let's get employers thinking seriously about the multi-generational workforce and what that means.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    kle4 said:

    I wish the voters were. Hold local referendums and we'll see.
    Voters are always keen for their local services to improve, on the back of other people paying more tax.....
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Bernie and Warren are fishing for the same votes. The left wing progressive voters and both have supported single payer for a long time while the others are newcomers. Both are of course from New England but Warren is actually a Democrat.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    @JosiasJessop Your area is being parished so the district & county councils can palm off work in your vicinity and you'll pay for it with a shiny new precept (addition) to your council tax bill.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. 86, ah, so presumably you knew in advance?

    I'll take my passport along anyway.

    Miss Chloe, yes, it's nice here (Yorkshire) too.

    Do you get to vote for David Herdson ?

    Left out here, no vote for me today ;(
    Same here, I enjoy the discussions with the two polling clerks about turnout.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,811
    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I voted a few days ago as I have a postal vote. A bit odd that. I asked for one for the EU referendum but only for that but they continue to give it to me. Which doesn’t say much for them following my instructions.

    Anyway the Tories and the Lib Dems, who have been the only ones canvassing, were still putting material through my front door at 10 pm last night. Poor sods.

    Re this (fpt) -“And maybe the career opportunities wont exist in a computerised and globalised economy”, I do wonder. IT problems last week in TSB; this week with NHS breast screening - and these are by no means isolated examples. The idea that there will be no work in a computerised world strikes me as optimistic. We will probably spend our time putting right all the cock ups caused by those intelligent computers, just as we now spend our time trying to sort out the messes caused by intelligent humans.

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    The difference between Tesla and GM in the eighties is that GM already had the scale and the financial resources. Tesla depends on investors keeping the money flowing in their direction. Tesla is a valuable company but not necessarily as the mass market manufacturer Musk wants to make it into. The intellectual property could be sold off if the investors so decide.
    On industrial logic Tesla wouldn't be manufacturing their own cars. They don't have the scale and the expertise to manage the supply chains and production process. They don't have the same quality standards as the Germans and Japanese, which is big issue for a premium brand. They probably also shouldn't be selling their own cars as they don't have the dealer network and support infrastructure of traditional manufacturers. A joint venture,owned subsidiary or contracted manufacture and marketing would seem the logical arrangements. I guess they would result in Musk leaving the enterprise. Investors are paying $1 billion a quarter to keep him on board. They may tire of it.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I voted a few days ago as I have a postal vote. A bit odd that. I asked for one for the EU referendum but only for that but they continue to give it to me. Which doesn’t say much for them following my instructions.

    Anyway the Tories and the Lib Dems, who have been the only ones canvassing, were still putting material through my front door at 10 pm last night. Poor sods.

    Re this (fpt) -“And maybe the career opportunities wont exist in a computerised and globalised economy”, I do wonder. IT problems last week in TSB; this week with NHS breast screening - and these are by no means isolated examples. The idea that there will be no work in a computerised world strikes me as optimistic. We will probably spend our time putting right all the cock ups caused by those intelligent computers, just as we now spend our time trying to sort out the messes caused by intelligent humans.

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    Yep, they thought that making 5,000 cars a week was no more difficult than making a few hundred. They’ll get there in the end, apparently Musk and a pile of managers are doing critical path analysis on the factory floor instead of on their computers, because the models bear little resemblance to the reality! It turns out that troubleshooting a factory full of new technology is, well, rocket science.
    Musk will sort it, he is a brilliant entrepreneur not some no mark CEO.
    But does he have sufficient know how about mass producing cars or recruiting those who do?
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,903
    Pulpstar said:

    @JosiasJessop Your area is being parished so the district & county councils can palm off work in your vicinity and you'll pay for it with a shiny new precept (addition) to your council tax bill.

    Are you opposed to all local Government ? Should we have no Councils and the State does everything ?

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    edited May 2018
    stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @JosiasJessop Your area is being parished so the district & county councils can palm off work in your vicinity and you'll pay for it with a shiny new precept (addition) to your council tax bill.

    Are you opposed to all local Government ? Should we have no Councils and the State does everything ?
    No I'm not opposed to all local government, but the amount of councils (And associated costs) that exist in rural Britain is ridiculous. We'd be better off on a wholly unitary system, probably keeping the existing county councillors and ditching certainly the district level which would achieve some economies of scale.
    There.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I voted a few days ago as I have a postal vote. A bit odd that. I asked for one for the EU referendum but only for that but they continue to give it to me. Which doesn’t say much for them following my instructions.

    Anyway the Tories and the Lib Dems, who have been the only ones canvassing, were still putting material through my front door at 10 pm last night. Poor sods.

    Re this (fpt) -“And maybe the career opportunities wont exist in a computerised and globalised economy”, I do wonder. IT problems last week in TSB; this week with NHS breast screening - and these are by no means isolated examples. The idea that there will be no work in a computerised world strikes me as optimistic. We will probably spend our time putting right all the cock ups caused by those intelligent computers, just as we now spend our time trying to sort out the messes caused by intelligent humans.

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    Yep, they thought that making 5,000 cars a week was no more difficult than making a few hundred. They’ll get there in the end, apparently Musk and a pile of managers are doing critical path analysis on the factory floor instead of on their computers, because the models bear little resemblance to the reality! It turns out that troubleshooting a factory full of new technology is, well, rocket science.
    Hidden in the article is the contrast between software -- where the rapid prototyping and ship-the-beta practices come from -- and traditional manufacturing where the smallest change might need retooling costing millions and taking months.

    It parallels the arguments used by Richard Stallman against software patents.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    FF43 said:

    Investors are paying $1 billion a quarter to keep him on board. They may tire of it.

    Normally I ask why would a rich man need extra money but! the main reason Musk is accumulating assets is to literally reach other worlds. That doesn't come cheap.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @JosiasJessop Your area is being parished so the district & county councils can palm off work in your vicinity and you'll pay for it with a shiny new precept (addition) to your council tax bill.

    Are you opposed to all local Government ? Should we have no Councils and the State does everything ?
    No I'm not opposed to all local government, but the amount of councils (And associated costs) that exist in rural Britain is ridiculous. We'd be better off on a wholly unitary system, probably keeping the existing county councillors and ditching certainly the district level which would achieve some economies of scale.
    There.
    The one advantage, and it’s a big one, of parish councils is keeping local government local. It’s not far to the office, one bumps into the 'decision makers' in the street. District Councils are now too big and anonymous, and, too often because they are politically controlled, the councillors are too busy keeping in with the party to give too much attention to the area they represent.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010

    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @JosiasJessop Your area is being parished so the district & county councils can palm off work in your vicinity and you'll pay for it with a shiny new precept (addition) to your council tax bill.

    Are you opposed to all local Government ? Should we have no Councils and the State does everything ?
    No I'm not opposed to all local government, but the amount of councils (And associated costs) that exist in rural Britain is ridiculous. We'd be better off on a wholly unitary system, probably keeping the existing county councillors and ditching certainly the district level which would achieve some economies of scale.
    There.
    The one advantage, and it’s a big one, of parish councils is keeping local government local. It’s not far to the office, one bumps into the 'decision makers' in the street. District Councils are now too big and anonymous, and, too often because they are politically controlled, the councillors are too busy keeping in with the party to give too much attention to the area they represent.
    I could take scrapping the district level and keeping parish as a compromise.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454
    I have never heard any jokes about the EU and the English language.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    Freggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Warren is the perfect anti-Trump in many ways with an interesting back story but she gives the impression of not wanting it badly enough.

    Don't they need someone who isn't the polar opposite of Trump? What's the point in piling up extra votes in California?
    I agree. They need someone with appeal beyond the coasts, particularly in the rust bucket states that swung it for Trump the last time. Is that Elizabeth Warren? I don't think so.
    I think someone who plays well in rural america maximises the Dems chance of victory.
    Trump is vulnerable there anyway, and his trade war really hasn't helped.
    I think rural USA is probably beyond the reach of any Democratic candidate. Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin are not. That is where the next election will be won, just as it was lost last time out.
    And FL of course
    Each state has a rural hinterland that Dems whilst not winning need to lose by a respectable margin.

    Obama did this in many Northern states and hence was able to win mostly white rural Evangelical Iowa.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Pulpstar, just been out to vote. Checked, but didn't see Mr. Herdson's name. Turnout seemed high but it was earlier than I normally vote so that may explain the difference.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,422
    Theresa just sent me a personal letter for me to vote today

    Thanks Theresa but we are not voting today but the mail shot is working and being on christian name terms is appreciated (though many on here think we are personal friends anyway) !!!!
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,134

    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @JosiasJessop Your area is being parished so the district & county councils can palm off work in your vicinity and you'll pay for it with a shiny new precept (addition) to your council tax bill.

    Are you opposed to all local Government ? Should we have no Councils and the State does everything ?
    No I'm not opposed to all local government, but the amount of councils (And associated costs) that exist in rural Britain is ridiculous. We'd be better off on a wholly unitary system, probably keeping the existing county councillors and ditching certainly the district level which would achieve some economies of scale.
    There.
    The one advantage, and it’s a big one, of parish councils is keeping local government local. It’s not far to the office, one bumps into the 'decision makers' in the street. District Councils are now too big and anonymous, and, too often because they are politically controlled, the councillors are too busy keeping in with the party to give too much attention to the area they represent.
    I think Mr Star might have the wrong end of t'stick: we were part of a parish (Bourn), but since my village of Cambourne dwarfs Bourn, they've been split. So we had a parish council; it's just that it's a new one in name.

    I'm unsure why we need so many parish councillors, though.

    Incidentally, a few years back I was told our parish council had a budget of over a million pounds, which seems a heck of a lot. And yes, we see a lot of their activities, from cutting the grass to litter picking, yet alone all the 'invisible' things.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Interesting that Williamson is among those opposing the Prime Minister.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,134
    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    Investors are paying $1 billion a quarter to keep him on board. They may tire of it.

    Normally I ask why would a rich man need extra money but! the main reason Musk is accumulating assets is to literally reach other worlds. That doesn't come cheap.
    I find Elon Musk fascinating. There is so much to admire in him, and also a fair amount of shittiness too. It's almost as though there are two Musks: the SpaceX one, and the Tesla one. One nice, one bad.

    Of course, that difference can probably be explained by the difference in the space and automobile industries.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,327
    Yes, Theresa's finished. She just wasn't bright or quick witted enough to tackle something as vastly complex and intractable as Brexit. Sajid is now the one to watch. He's enjoying a huge honeymoon at the moment. He needs to strike while the iron's hot.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,175

    Interesting that Williamson is among those opposing the Prime Minister.
    Interesting in the sense of implausible? I don’t think any of these breifings should be taken at face value. For whatever reason, this is what May wants people to think.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Yes, Theresa's finished. She just wasn't bright or quick witted enough to tackle something as vastly complex and intractable as Brexit. Sajid is now the one to watch. He's enjoying a huge honeymoon at the moment. He needs to strike while the iron's hot.
    While I cannot forgive Cameron for holding the referendum before establishing what Brexit might look like, I simply cannot understand why Theresa May triggered Article 50 without any idea of the desired end goal. It is literally incredible.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799

    Interesting that Williamson is among those opposing the Prime Minister.
    Interesting in the sense of implausible? I don’t think any of these breifings should be taken at face value. For whatever reason, this is what May wants people to think.
    Just like the EU briefings.....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    .

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    Yep, they thought that making 5,000 cars a week was no more difficult than making a few hundred. They’ll get there in the end, apparently Musk and a pile of managers are doing critical path analysis on the factory floor instead of on their computers, because the models bear little resemblance to the reality! It turns out that troubleshooting a factory full of new technology is, well, rocket science.
    Hidden in the article is the contrast between software -- where the rapid prototyping and ship-the-beta practices come from -- and traditional manufacturing where the smallest change might need retooling costing millions and taking months.

    It parallels the arguments used by Richard Stallman against software patents.
    Indeed so, software testing is increasingly done in production, with little QA done by any of the big firms any more, we all get used to quickly rolling updates and things getting broken and fixed. Musk is trying to run a factory the same way, which is always going to be a nightmare at the start but could make it easier for them to get up to speed and to innovate - at the expense of having a few of the early models returned as they’re going to be crap.

    At the moment the investors are still on board as they lose $1bn a quarter, Musk is hoping that they get their line running at full speed and making money before the investors have had enough. But this is Elon Musk, the guy who did this (my desktop wallpaper):
    image
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Yes, Theresa's finished. She just wasn't bright or quick witted enough to tackle something as vastly complex and intractable as Brexit. Sajid is now the one to watch. He's enjoying a huge honeymoon at the moment. He needs to strike while the iron's hot.
    While I cannot forgive Cameron for holding the referendum before establishing what Brexit might look like, I simply cannot understand why Theresa May triggered Article 50 without any idea of the desired end goal. It is literally incredible.
    The end goal is the leave the EU and its related organisations..
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,903
    Pulpstar said:


    No I'm not opposed to all local government, but the amount of councils (And associated costs) that exist in rural Britain is ridiculous. We'd be better off on a wholly unitary system, probably keeping the existing county councillors and ditching certainly the district level which would achieve some economies of scale.

    It's an interesting issue and one I often hear discussed in my line of work. I'd make two observations - the relationships between a County and its Districts are complex and often down to personalities within ruling groups of the same party. The "twin hats" as they are known (County and District Councillors) make like difficult for everyone in all honesty.

    I would bar anyone representing the same area on more than one authority. There IS a conflict of interest there whether they like it or not.

    As for the structures themselves, let's take a case in point. Surrey has about 1.2 million people and has a County Council plus eleven District and Borough Councils and any number of Parish Councils (the precept also covers the Police Authority which is another layer to consider).

    If you had a single County Council you'd have 81 Councillors running an authority serving a population the size of Birmingham. You could split the single authority into two - an East Surrey based on Reigate and a West Surrey based on Guildford. The other problem is you have Districts like Spelthorne who want to be Unitaries on their own.

    In lieu of a mutually agreed arrangement, you'd have to have an imposed solution which would naturally cause all sorts of issues. As we've seen elsewhere, there's no "one size fits all" solution (contrast Cornwall and Cheshire). There are those who still publicly blame Ted Heath for the 1974 re-organisation. Would a future Conservative leader like the same opprobrium ? I imagine not.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Jessop, Zhuge Liang wrote: Nothing is harder to see into than people's natures.

    One of the seven methods he recommends is getting them drunk, to observe their nature.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    It is astonishing that we still have the absurd duplication of country and district councils It would be a pain-free saving to sort it out.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, the Democrats would do well to look for a moderately charismatic candidate under 60. The implied contrast would do them no harm.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,756
    Turnout described as 'non-existent' in areas without local election today.

    Best wishes to my fellow PB candidates. May we all get the results we deserve.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088

    Yes, Theresa's finished. She just wasn't bright or quick witted enough to tackle something as vastly complex and intractable as Brexit. Sajid is now the one to watch. He's enjoying a huge honeymoon at the moment. He needs to strike while the iron's hot.
    While I cannot forgive Cameron for holding the referendum before establishing what Brexit might look like, I simply cannot understand why Theresa May triggered Article 50 without any idea of the desired end goal. It is literally incredible.
    The end goal is the leave the EU and its related organisations..
    There was nothing about leaving safely, though.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,327

    Yes, Theresa's finished. She just wasn't bright or quick witted enough to tackle something as vastly complex and intractable as Brexit. Sajid is now the one to watch. He's enjoying a huge honeymoon at the moment. He needs to strike while the iron's hot.
    While I cannot forgive Cameron for holding the referendum before establishing what Brexit might look like, I simply cannot understand why Theresa May triggered Article 50 without any idea of the desired end goal. It is literally incredible.
    Yes, that was destructively cretinous. I think she was desperate to portray herself as Madam Brexit and get the approval of The Daily Mail, Farage etc. But these were always going to be fair-weather friends. She should have been straight with the public: told them that, whilst Brexit would happen, it would take years of hard work to get it right. She opted instead for cheap gimmickry.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    Theresa just sent me a personal letter for me to vote today

    Thanks Theresa but we are not voting today but the mail shot is working and being on christian name terms is appreciated (though many on here think we are personal friends anyway) !!!!

    Interesting. Is it cheaper to just send everyone a letter then to target it to places where people are actually voting, because the Tory GOTV machine seems to be poorly targeted this year.

    I've seen Tories campaigning in no hope London wards and have read similar stories on here.....this is not going to end well is it?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    TOPPING said:

    I have never heard any jokes about the EU and the English language.
    I am told that the EU's conversion to English has been relatively recently. As late as 2005 French was a necessity in the Commission, as you could expect key briefings/conversations to take place in it. It took them the ten years 2005 to 2015 to move away from it.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010

    On topic, the Democrats would do well to look for a moderately charismatic candidate under 60. The implied contrast would do them no harm.

    Yep Warren is 68, Biden 75, Sanders 76 - the oldocracy continues.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,903

    It is astonishing that we still have the absurd duplication of country and district councils It would be a pain-free saving to sort it out.

    Would there be a "saving" ? I think you'll find the back office functions are already being merged across authorities so there's less saving there than you would think.

    The problem is a political one. Tri-Borough in London failed because you had two Conservative and one Labour-run authority which, although geographically close, were politically very different. The other problem as the savings envisaged simply didn't materialise.

    There are any number of cross-Council partnerships around at the moment but all I hear are problems with them. One of those problems is political direction and the truth that even if you have two Councils run by the same Party, that doesn't make them easy to merge or manage. They can and often are very different.

    Those who think all Councils are the same have no idea.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088

    Theresa just sent me a personal letter for me to vote today

    Thanks Theresa but we are not voting today but the mail shot is working and being on christian name terms is appreciated (though many on here think we are personal friends anyway) !!!!


    Doesn’t say a lot for Tory HQ efficiency. Makes one concerned for Craig McKinlay’s chances next month!
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,756
    I am a fan of unitaries, rather than 2-tier councils in the shires.

    I'm sure 99% of the public have no idea which council is responsible for what.

    Good example: District empty the bins, but County run the tip, so who exactly is in charge of rubbish and recycling?
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    O/T Can anyone recommend a good country pub in and around the Surrey Hills? The weather looks good this weekend and fancy a short trip out of London.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    stodge said:

    It is astonishing that we still have the absurd duplication of country and district councils It would be a pain-free saving to sort it out.

    Would there be a "saving" ? I think you'll find the back office functions are already being merged across authorities so there's less saving there than you would think.

    The problem is a political one. Tri-Borough in London failed because you had two Conservative and one Labour-run authority which, although geographically close, were politically very different. The other problem as the savings envisaged simply didn't materialise.

    There are any number of cross-Council partnerships around at the moment but all I hear are problems with them. One of those problems is political direction and the truth that even if you have two Councils run by the same Party, that doesn't make them easy to merge or manage. They can and often are very different.

    Those who think all Councils are the same have no idea.
    Of course there'd be some savings. There'd only be one website for starters.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010

    I am a fan of unitaries, rather than 2-tier councils in the shires.

    I'm sure 99% of the public have no idea which council is responsible for what.

    Good example: District empty the bins, but County run the tip, so who exactly is in charge of rubbish and recycling?

    There we go, cross party support :>
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799

    Yes, Theresa's finished. She just wasn't bright or quick witted enough to tackle something as vastly complex and intractable as Brexit. Sajid is now the one to watch. He's enjoying a huge honeymoon at the moment. He needs to strike while the iron's hot.
    While I cannot forgive Cameron for holding the referendum before establishing what Brexit might look like, I simply cannot understand why Theresa May triggered Article 50 without any idea of the desired end goal. It is literally incredible.
    Didn't Corbyn want Article 50 triggered immediately?
  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,438
    stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:


    No I'm not opposed to all local government, but the amount of councils (And associated costs) that exist in rural Britain is ridiculous. We'd be better off on a wholly unitary system, probably keeping the existing county councillors and ditching certainly the district level which would achieve some economies of scale.

    It's an interesting issue and one I often hear discussed in my line of work. I'd make two observations - the relationships between a County and its Districts are complex and often down to personalities within ruling groups of the same party. The "twin hats" as they are known (County and District Councillors) make like difficult for everyone in all honesty.

    I would bar anyone representing the same area on more than one authority. There IS a conflict of interest there whether they like it or not.

    As for the structures themselves, let's take a case in point. Surrey has about 1.2 million people and has a County Council plus eleven District and Borough Councils and any number of Parish Councils (the precept also covers the Police Authority which is another layer to consider).

    If you had a single County Council you'd have 81 Councillors running an authority serving a population the size of Birmingham. You could split the single authority into two - an East Surrey based on Reigate and a West Surrey based on Guildford. The other problem is you have Districts like Spelthorne who want to be Unitaries on their own.

    In lieu of a mutually agreed arrangement, you'd have to have an imposed solution which would naturally cause all sorts of issues. As we've seen elsewhere, there's no "one size fits all" solution (contrast Cornwall and Cheshire). There are those who still publicly blame Ted Heath for the 1974 re-organisation. Would a future Conservative leader like the same opprobrium ? I imagine not.
    Hertfordshire is a similar size with the added difficulty that there is no single major city/town around which to base the unitary around.

    The NHS ccg splits Hertfordshire into two, so a west/east split would probably work, although you would probably spit Hertsmere into two with Potters Bar going into Hertfordshire East.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Theresa just sent me a personal letter for me to vote today

    Thanks Theresa but we are not voting today but the mail shot is working and being on christian name terms is appreciated (though many on here think we are personal friends anyway) !!!!


    Doesn’t say a lot for Tory HQ efficiency. Makes one concerned for Craig McKinlay’s chances next month!
    It's nothing to do with efficiency - it's an all upside call.

    No-on is going to vote against us because they got an email in an area where they can't vote, and because people move around and might be registered in more than one area, it could capture voters that might be missed by area specific targeting.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    murali_s said:

    O/T Can anyone recommend a good country pub in and around the Surrey Hills? The weather looks good this weekend and fancy a short trip out of London.

    Careful Murali, you might bump into Tories. And even worse people who voted for Brexit..
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,422
    Mortimer said:

    Theresa just sent me a personal letter for me to vote today

    Thanks Theresa but we are not voting today but the mail shot is working and being on christian name terms is appreciated (though many on here think we are personal friends anyway) !!!!


    Doesn’t say a lot for Tory HQ efficiency. Makes one concerned for Craig McKinlay’s chances next month!
    It's nothing to do with efficiency - it's an all upside call.

    No-on is going to vote against us because they got an email in an area where they can't vote, and because people move around and might be registered in more than one area, it could capture voters that might be missed by area specific targeting.

    To be fair I receive regular mail shots and this has only been fairly recent. Good to keep communicating
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971
    Mortimer said:

    Theresa just sent me a personal letter for me to vote today

    Thanks Theresa but we are not voting today but the mail shot is working and being on christian name terms is appreciated (though many on here think we are personal friends anyway) !!!!


    Doesn’t say a lot for Tory HQ efficiency. Makes one concerned for Craig McKinlay’s chances next month!
    It's nothing to do with efficiency - it's an all upside call.

    No-on is going to vote against us because they got an email in an area where they can't vote, and because people move around and might be registered in more than one area, it could capture voters that might be missed by area specific targeting.

    They’ll also have email addresses but not physical addresses for lots of people on their database, sending out a million emails costs them almost nothing and might reach a few people who didn’t realise there are elections in their area today.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Yes, Theresa's finished. She just wasn't bright or quick witted enough to tackle something as vastly complex and intractable as Brexit. Sajid is now the one to watch. He's enjoying a huge honeymoon at the moment. He needs to strike while the iron's hot.
    While I cannot forgive Cameron for holding the referendum before establishing what Brexit might look like, I simply cannot understand why Theresa May triggered Article 50 without any idea of the desired end goal. It is literally incredible.
    Didn't Corbyn want Article 50 triggered immediately?
    Corbyn might for all I know or care have had a target. Corbyn is not Prime Minister so it does not really matter very much -- the impotence of opposition. The point is not that the government triggered Article 50 to reach a situation I might not like but that it seems to have had no particular destination in mind at all. That is the incomprehensible part.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    .

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    Yep, they thought that making 5,000 cars a week was no more difficult than making a few hundred. They’ll get there in the end, apparently Musk and a pile of managers are doing critical path analysis on the factory floor instead of on their computers, because the models bear little resemblance to the reality! It turns out that troubleshooting a factory full of new technology is, well, rocket science.
    Hidden in the article is the contrast between software -- where the rapid prototyping and ship-the-beta practices come from -- and traditional manufacturing where the smallest change might need retooling costing millions and taking months.

    It parallels the arguments used by Richard Stallman against software patents.
    Indeed so, software testing is increasingly done in production, with little QA done by any of the big firms any more, we all get used to quickly rolling updates and things getting broken and fixed. Musk is trying to run a factory the same way, which is always going to be a nightmare at the start but could make it easier for them to get up to speed and to innovate - at the expense of having a few of the early models returned as they’re going to be crap.

    At the moment the investors are still on board as they lose $1bn a quarter, Musk is hoping that they get their line running at full speed and making money before the investors have had enough. But this is Elon Musk, the guy who did this (my desktop wallpaper):
    image

    Yes, that seems to be how some companies work. TSB is live testing out its replacement computer systems on its customers.

    Seems to be working, in the sense that customers are finding the problems that were not picked up in system testing. A few more weeks of chaos and the systems will be robust. Job done.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,903
    Pulpstar said:


    Of course there'd be some savings. There'd only be one website for starters.

    The cost of a website ? Seriously ?

    Surrey County Council has a budget of £1.7 billion. I would guess the District and Borough Councils combined come up to maybe £750 million so that's a £2.5 billion business or series of businesses.

    I'm not saying there wouldn't be any savings but as usual people forget the costs of merging services or changing how they are delivered and from where.

    There's some potential on the property site. Once you've abolished the hundreds of Conservative District Councillors in Surrey you won't need meeting places for them so there are 11 District and Borough HQ buildings to be sold or leased.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    Theresa just sent me a personal letter for me to vote today

    Thanks Theresa but we are not voting today but the mail shot is working and being on christian name terms is appreciated (though many on here think we are personal friends anyway) !!!!


    Doesn’t say a lot for Tory HQ efficiency. Makes one concerned for Craig McKinlay’s chances next month!
    It's nothing to do with efficiency - it's an all upside call.

    No-on is going to vote against us because they got an email in an area where they can't vote, and because people move around and might be registered in more than one area, it could capture voters that might be missed by area specific targeting.

    They’ll also have email addresses but not physical addresses for lots of people on their database, sending out a million emails costs them almost nothing and might reach a few people who didn’t realise there are elections in their area today.
    Yup!

    We're also in the run up to GDPR regs taking effect and it might encourage more people to opt in...
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    Glen O'Hara nails his colours to the mast:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/991978441305219073
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    .

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    Yep, they thought that making 5,000 cars a week was no more difficult than making a few hundred. They’ll get there in the end, apparently Musk and a pile of managers are doing critical path analysis on the factory floor instead of on their computers, because the models bear little resemblance to the reality! It turns out that troubleshooting a factory full of new technology is, well, rocket science.
    Hidden in the article is the contrast between software -- where the rapid prototyping and ship-the-beta practices come from -- and traditional manufacturing where the smallest change might need retooling costing millions and taking months.

    It parallels the arguments used by Richard Stallman against software patents.
    Indeed so, software testing is increasingly done in production, with little QA done by any of the big firms any more, we all get used to quickly rolling updates and things getting broken and fixed. Musk is trying to run a factory the same way, which is always going to be a nightmare at the start but could make it easier for them to get up to speed and to innovate - at the expense of having a few of the early models returned as they’re going to be crap.

    At the moment the investors are still on board as they lose $1bn a quarter, Musk is hoping that they get their line running at full speed and making money before the investors have had enough. But this is Elon Musk, the guy who did this (my desktop wallpaper):
    image

    Yes, that seems to be how some companies work. TSB is live testing out its replacement computer systems on its customers.

    Seems to be working, in the sense that customers are finding the problems that were not picked up in system testing. A few more weeks of chaos and the systems will be robust. Job done.
    Job done indeed. And the consultants and directors will add to their CVs and Linkedin profiles that they managed an elebenty squillion pound upgrade project. Bonuses all round.
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    On topic, the Democrats would do well to look for a moderately charismatic candidate under 60. The implied contrast would do them no harm.

    "I am not going to exploit my opponents youth and inexperience".
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Of course there'd be some savings. There'd only be one website for starters.

    The cost of a website ? Seriously ?

    Surrey County Council has a budget of £1.7 billion. I would guess the District and Borough Councils combined come up to maybe £750 million so that's a £2.5 billion business or series of businesses.

    I'm not saying there wouldn't be any savings but as usual people forget the costs of merging services or changing how they are delivered and from where.

    There's some potential on the property site. Once you've abolished the hundreds of Conservative District Councillors in Surrey you won't need meeting places for them so there are 11 District and Borough HQ buildings to be sold or leased.
    Websites (& the related IT support contracts), HQ buildings.. it soon starts to add up. The merger costs are one off too whereas the savings, ongoing.
    Look after the thousands and the millions take care of themselves.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,756
    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    O/T Can anyone recommend a good country pub in and around the Surrey Hills? The weather looks good this weekend and fancy a short trip out of London.

    Careful Murali, you might bump into Tories. And even worse people who voted for Brexit..
    I'm reminded of the Goodness Gracious Me sketch:

    To see the real England you've got to go to the villages - there are people there who've never seen a brown face.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,756
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Of course there'd be some savings. There'd only be one website for starters.

    The cost of a website ? Seriously ?

    Surrey County Council has a budget of £1.7 billion. I would guess the District and Borough Councils combined come up to maybe £750 million so that's a £2.5 billion business or series of businesses.

    I'm not saying there wouldn't be any savings but as usual people forget the costs of merging services or changing how they are delivered and from where.

    There's some potential on the property site. Once you've abolished the hundreds of Conservative District Councillors in Surrey you won't need meeting places for them so there are 11 District and Borough HQ buildings to be sold or leased.
    Websites (& the related IT support contracts), HQ buildings.. it soon starts to add up. The merger costs are one off too whereas the savings, ongoing.
    Look after the thousands and the millions take care of themselves.
    We don't need to guess -real data will exist for the savings made in Durham when it went from 2-tier to unitary under County of County Durham County Council*

    *Sadly, not the actual name
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    O/T Can anyone recommend a good country pub in and around the Surrey Hills? The weather looks good this weekend and fancy a short trip out of London.

    Careful Murali, you might bump into Tories. And even worse people who voted for Brexit..
    I'm reminded of the Goodness Gracious Me sketch:

    To see the real England you've got to go to the villages - there are people there who've never seen a brown face.

    Only a couple of black faces in our village of 1000 people.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    .

    It will at the very least be a several decades long transition until our digital overlords take over.

    This story is very much to the point...
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/elon-musk-says-a-flufferbot-caused-the-model-3-delays.html?
    This is a good article on this:
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/

    Basically, running before they could walk.
    .
    Hidden in the article is the contrast between software -- where the rapid prototyping and ship-the-beta practices come from -- and traditional manufacturing where the smallest change might need retooling costing millions and taking months.

    It parallels the arguments used by Richard Stallman against software patents.
    Indeed so, software testing is increasingly done in production, with little QA done by any of the big firms any more, we all get used to quickly rolling updates and things getting broken and fixed. Musk is trying to run a factory the same way, which is always going to be a nightmare at the start but could make it easier for them to get up to speed and to innovate - at the expense of having a few of the early models returned as they’re going to be crap.

    At the moment the investors are still on board as they lose $1bn a quarter, Musk is hoping that they get their line running at full speed and making money before the investors have had enough. But this is Elon Musk, the guy who did this (my desktop wallpaper):
    image

    Yes, that seems to be how some companies work. TSB is live testing out its replacement computer systems on its customers.

    Seems to be working, in the sense that customers are finding the problems that were not picked up in system testing. A few more weeks of chaos and the systems will be robust. Job done.
    It’s not uncommon, when new medicines are introduced to the market, to find problems which were not picked up even in the fairly large scale final trials which are run.

    It’s one of the very few (possibly the only) advantages of the leaving the European Medicines Agency. New medicines will be released there, because there’s a bigger market, before they are brought to the British market.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Greenwich -- it was suggested that the number of posh flats (some with dodgy cladding) that have gone up in the last couple of years might favour the Conservatives -- though it is not one of the councils we can bet on so I've not given it too much thought.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Rentool, sounds like you're suggesting we vote for Batman.
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    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I think that after some theatrics the CU issue will be resolved along these lines:

    1. Two year full alignment, in effect temporary CU membership whilst technology solution implemented.
    2. Joint sign-off of technology solution with independent arbitration.
    3. Temporary solution to continue till solution is agreed to be working.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    O/T Can anyone recommend a good country pub in and around the Surrey Hills? The weather looks good this weekend and fancy a short trip out of London.

    Careful Murali, you might bump into Tories. And even worse people who voted for Brexit..
    I'm reminded of the Goodness Gracious Me sketch:

    To see the real England you've got to go to the villages - there are people there who've never seen a brown face.

    Only a couple of black faces in our village of 1000 people.
    Up until recently round here even the health professionals were white.
This discussion has been closed.