NOTHING irritates non-Londoners more than Londoners exulting in the rising value of their properties.
I suspect this underlies most anti-London feeling.
What irritates me most is Londoners complaining about their world-class public transport.
Couldn't agree more. I was at the glamourous National Rail Awards on Thursday where a very drunk attendee had found somone quite senior in TfL and was telling him exactly what she thought of the district line! She should try the Edinburgh trams!
You've made me look like a Reich idiot! BBC glitch sees UKIP leader Farage sporting an unfortunate 'Hitler moustache' after he denies claims of singing Nazi songs
Can someone tell me if the bbc have the technology to deliberately put a glitch on the tv screen where they wanted to on the screen ?
The technology to make a mask of any shape and colour on a TV screen has existed for a long time. I do not doubt that this was deleberate although it would be hard to prove.
NOTHING irritates non-Londoners more than Londoners exulting in the rising value of their properties.
I suspect this underlies most anti-London feeling.
What irritates me most is Londoners complaining about their world-class public transport.
I agree with that, Londoners are incredibly lucky with the Tube and bus network.
When I go to other cities, in Britain and abroad (especially in America and Asia) and they haven't got anything like the Tube, I realise what a boon it is. I didn't need a car for 20 years (til I had kids).
The Undergrounds in other cities are superior in many respects BUT are also about 100 years younger. Bangkok's public transport, apart from the buses (ugh) is excellent, BUT has nowhere near the coverage London's Underground provides. London's buses, of course, are infinitely superior
I *hate* most modern brick churches. No character, no detail, no finesse. The God they venerate must be a rather boring, staid creature, sombre and joyless.
I'd agree. We open the house each year for it - all the tours got fully booked weeks in advance though.
Which house, may I ask?
And do you do private tours? :-)
One place I meant to visit this year (not part of this scheme) is Coggleshall Abbey. I was walking past last year and fell in love with the place, especially when the owner chatted with me for ten minutes.
It's not the sort of thing you should admit on PB, but I have a passion for early bricks and concrete ... ;-)
Two Temple Place in Westminster (only Victorian, I'm afraid, but quite unique - see my avatar as an example!). Sure we can sort something out - if not them we are teaming up with the Museums of Cambridge next spring to do a (free) public exhibition themed around Discovery & Inventions.
What irritates me most is Londoners complaining about their world-class public transport.
Couldn't agree more. I was at the glamourous National Rail Awards on Thursday where a very drunk attendee had found somone quite senior in TfL and was telling him exactly what she thought of the district line! She should try the Edinburgh trams!
What Londoners don't realise is how rare it is for an urban transit system like the Tube to go all the way from the suburbs to the centre. Often you have to change mode and only the centre is well serviced by the local Metro. Often suburban travel is by bus, which can be exeptionally slow.
I *hate* most modern brick churches. No character, no detail, no finesse. The God they venerate must be a rather boring, staid creature, sombre and joyless.
I've been to Greensted. Charming and intriguing, but no way is it the oldest church in the world! There are churches dating back to the 3rd and 4th centuries in the Middle East/Armenia. Even Old St Pancras has a better claim.
Greensted is, I believe, the oldest WOODEN church in the world, though there are some boring historians who reckon it is a bit of a fake. Boo!
Taking Americans to Bradwell is a mind-blowing experience.
I'd agree. We open the house each year for it - all the tours got fully booked weeks in advance though.
Which house, may I ask?
And do you do private tours? :-)
One place I meant to visit this year (not part of this scheme) is Coggleshall Abbey. I was walking past last year and fell in love with the place, especially when the owner chatted with me for ten minutes.
It's not the sort of thing you should admit on PB, but I have a passion for early bricks and concrete ... ;-)
Two Temple Place in Westminster (only Victorian, I'm afraid, but quite unique - see my avatar as an example!). Sure we can sort something out - if not them we are teaming up with the Museums of Cambridge next spring to do a (free) public exhibition themed around Discovery & Inventions.
Thanks, I'd love to take you up on that.
BTW - I went to your 'visit' page, clicked on the 'home' link on the banner, and get a 404. Just thought I'd mention. ;-)
I'm coming from the opposite end of the spectrum from you on this one Richard. I'd much rather astound them with my ingratitude as it's better sport. ;-)
Do you think so AB?
Personally I find the 'arrogant bstard northerner' persona aggravates them far more than the sterotypical 'grumpy ungrateful northerner'.
Making condescending comments about the pitiful hovels that they're mortgaged up to the hilts for is great fun. As in making references to commuting times and beer prices.
;-)
Conversely, my one bed Camden flat, for which I paid £325K less than four years ago, is now worth close on half a million. Heh.
And the £290K flat I bought 15 years ago allowed me to trade into something nicer that is worth a little more...
Do you mind if I ask where? I grew up between Basingstoke and Andover.
Fleet. It's a bit of a compromise but has access to countryside, the SW main line to London and the West Country, a shopping centre I can run most of my weekly errands, Waitrose, is on the M3, close to the M4, and you can drive North without having to use the M25 (although that is much better than it used to be now it has been widened). There are probably nicer places locally even if you stick to "towns", e.g. Farnham and Alton, but they have their own drawbacks (Farnham is too expensive and the town centre traffic sucks, Alton's train service to London is slow and not as good as it should be).
My favorite spaniel was called Fleet (we bought her from a farmer near there) - very fond of the place as a result
Mr. Jessop, old, traditional churches often look fantastic.
Indeed. I'm only an amateur, but I love trying to read old churches, to work out the phasing of alterations. One of the joys of walking around the country was finding, nestled away in some forgotten corner, a wonderful church.
My Aussie ex was an atheist, and flat-refused to go into any churches with me until we visited York. I went walking for the day and, bored, she went into the Minster. She always visited churches with me after that. You don't have to be religious to take a joy in the objects that people created in His name.
Some new buildings can also be spectacular, but have to be very special to make up for the lack of the patina that age gives a structure.
It's why I'm a firm advocate of relaxing the planning laws to allow old buildings to be sympathetically altered in a modern way. Add the best of our world to those of the past.
... as evanescent as the last Scottish Tory that recently popped up (though to be fair to the latter, he was probably a bit creeped out by the scary grooming that kicked in almost immediately).
It was rather repulsive. As soon as he posted the assembled PB Tories had a mutually assisted bukkake session all over the poor newcomer. Enough to put one off blogging for life.
I *hate* most modern brick churches. No character, no detail, no finesse. The God they venerate must be a rather boring, staid creature, sombre and joyless.
I've been to Greensted. Charming and intriguing, but no way is it the oldest church in the world! There are churches dating back to the 3rd and 4th centuries in the Middle East/Armenia. Even Old St Pancras has a better claim.
Greensted is, I believe, the oldest WOODEN church in the world, though there are some boring historians who reckon it is a bit of a fake. Boo!
You are, of course, right. I should have claimed 'wooden church'. It's still a spectacular place.
I thought Old St Pancras's claim was more the site of the church, rather than the substantial church structure itself?
I *hate* most modern brick churches. No character, no detail, no finesse. The God they venerate must be a rather boring, staid creature, sombre and joyless.
I've been to Greensted. Charming and intriguing, but no way is it the oldest church in the world! There are churches dating back to the 3rd and 4th centuries in the Middle East/Armenia. Even Old St Pancras has a better claim.
Greensted is, I believe, the oldest WOODEN church in the world, though there are some boring historians who reckon it is a bit of a fake. Boo!
Ed Miliband: I'm bringing socialism back to Britain
Ed Miliband has said he is "bringing back socialism" to Britain as he unveiled new plans to strengthen the minimum wage ahead of the Labour Party conference.
John Rentoul tweeted a short time ago: Poll alert: We have a ComRes opinion poll in The Independent on Sunday tomorrow, shared with the Sunday Mirror... ind.pn/1gLmU3L
The Tories huge achilles heel is that voters believe they are a party of the rich for the rich.
In 2010, the Tories got 10.7 million votes.
that's 10.7 million people who either don't believe your bold assertion about their views or for whom it doesn't affect their voting decision
and how many people did not vote Conservative in 2010 , 19 million actively voted against and 16 million did not vote at all . Either they did believe that assertion or it did not affect their voting decision
re Churches - passed St Thomas's church in Monmouth c. 6.00 pm yesterday. The sun lit up the open west door and highlighted the stained glass above the alter. It was a wonderful sight.
Of course not. I wouldn't be buying a one bedroom flat in zone 2 if I had children...
I would be looking at a 3 bed in a commuter town. £60k with two kids, a mortgage and a season ticket is still plenty wealthy. If people are silly enough to have more kids they can afford then that is not the state's problem.
Why 'Of course not'? SeanT has children, and a one bedroom flat, unless there's something about zone 2 that you haven't told us ;-)
Yes, I have been to Repton! The crypt is wonderfully atmospheric. Not done Cappaddoccia yet, it's on the list.
Of course I have - *cough* - been to the oldest temple on earth, Gobekli Tepe. Indeed it bought me a flat.
Cornwall has some lovely churches: Zennor is great, with its moody clifftop location (the stone hedges nearby are said to be the oldest human artefacts still being used for their original purpose).
Been to Zennor on a couple of occasions, and even stayed in the backpacker's hostel there. A lovely place.
I think I've mentioned it before, but just down the inland path to St Ives from Zennor, I came across an old ruined chapel, all overgrown. It freaked me out when I tripped over an old gravestone.
Of course not. I wouldn't be buying a one bedroom flat in zone 2 if I had children...
I would be looking at a 3 bed in a commuter town. £60k with two kids, a mortgage and a season ticket is still plenty wealthy. If people are silly enough to have more kids they can afford then that is not the state's problem.
Why 'Of course not'? SeanT has children, and a one bedroom flat, unless there's something about zone 2 that you haven't told us ;-)
I don't think SeanT's daughters live him full time. From experience, you can get away with a smaller place in that situation.
Ed Miliband: I'm bringing socialism back to Britain
Ed Miliband has said he is "bringing back socialism" to Britain as he unveiled new plans to strengthen the minimum wage ahead of the Labour Party conference.
If Mike had taken off his Westminster-tinted spectacles he might have instead written:
* With the Tory prospects for EURO2014 starting to look better, the Yes prospects for IndyRef2014 start to look better too.
* If the English Tories start to recover the main beneficiary will be the Scottish National Party. Spirits in the Yes camp must have surged overnight.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum
Yes 9/2 (StanJames, Ladbrokes) No 2/9 (Betfair)
If true then it also enhances Tory prospects for future GE's in England
The more that English Conservatives start to believe that the happier I become.
I'm for ever fascinated why Nats think english conservatives are holding back independence rather than Scots Labour voters. It's the Nat inferiority complex in all its glory.
So Ed M reverses spare room subsidy, no tax rises for those under 150k, increase in minimum wage, and loads of extra free childcare - basically it's spend, spend and spend again! We've been here before and it doesn't have a good ending.
Ed Miliband: I'm bringing socialism back to Britain
Ed Miliband has said he is "bringing back socialism" to Britain as he unveiled new plans to strengthen the minimum wage ahead of the Labour Party conference.
Just got back from the UKIP conference (as a non-partisan stallholder), chatted to a lot of delegates. Trying to give a fair impression:
- Demography wasn't as lopsided as one might expect. Plenty of women, some young people, some black people. pensioners group slightly above average, young middle age below average. - Most people perfectly pleasant (including those who already knew my political background, or asked, and including JackW (who looks very well)). No different to any other conference in that way. - Slightly more nutty cases than average - e.g. a chap who was haranguing the Campaign for an English Parliament lady on the "fact" that Britain had had a series of National Socialist governments because they supported the National health service: "Um, I'm not sure I'd go that far", she murmured politely. And a couple of other obsessives who you wouldn't want to share a long train journey with. - But very few obviously weird people overall. Rather, a predominance of wistful nostalgia - people saying yes, they weren't against progress, but weren't we giving up too much of our old values? Not very many people I'd call seriously political in the hardcore sense of years of campaigning on this and that, and only a tiny number of the slick organiser type who are quite visible at the other conferences. A few were intensely into anti-EU sentiments, others just vaguely unhappy with how things were going. Lots of support for animal protection. - Delegates were disconcerted by the Bloom business, but hoping for the best. Mixed feelings on wehther he should have been stamped on or ignored; nobody actually defended him.
Overall, confirmed my feeling that I disagree with UKIP on almost everything, but I don't see any reason to detest them as I detest the BNP. The people I met generally meant well, and there are worse things than that.
Just got back from the UKIP conference (as a non-partisan stallholder), chatted to a lot of delegates. Trying to give a fair impression:
- Demography wasn't as lopsided as one might expect. Plenty of women, some young people, some black people. pensioners group slightly above average, young middle age below average. - Most people perfectly pleasant (including those who already knew my political background, or asked, and including JackW (who looks very well)). No different to any other conference in that way. - Slightly more nutty cases than average - e.g. a chap who was haranguing the Campaign for an English Parliament lady on the "fact" that Britain had had a series of National Socialist governments because they supported the National health service: "Um, I'm not sure I'd go that far", she murmured politely. And a couple of other obsessives who you wouldn't want to share a long train journey with. - But very few obviously weird people overall. Rather, a predominance of wistful nostalgia - people saying yes, they weren't against progress, but weren't we giving up too much of our old values? Not very many people I'd call seriously political in the hardcore sense of years of campaigning on this and that, and only a tiny number of the slick organiser type who are quite visible at the other conferences. A few were intensely into anti-EU sentiments, others just vaguely unhappy with how things were going. Lots of support for animal protection. - Delegates were disconcerted by the Bloom business, but hoping for the best. Mixed feelings on wehther he should have been stamped on or ignored; nobody actually defended him.
Overall, confirmed my feeling that I disagree with UKIP on almost everything, but I don't see any reason to detest them as I detest the BNP. The people I met generally meant well, and there are worse things than that.
I've just been reading the various articles on the McBride book. It looks to me that it won't be much of a game changer, as it doesn't tell us much that we didn't know or suspect already. Blair and Brown were too busy fighting to pay much attention to the running of the country and Brown was positively barmy. Unless the Labour Eds get implemented a bit more, I think they'll ride it out, even though Ed Balls really is a 'horrible b'stard. Still, it's fun to read, even though it's slightly scary that someone as unsuited to being PM as Gordon Brown, actually got the job.
I've just been reading the various articles on the McBride book. It looks to me that it won't be much of a game changer, as it doesn't tell us much that we didn't know or suspect already. Blair and Brown were too busy fighting to pay much attention to the running of the country and Brown was positively barmy. Unless the Labour Eds get implemented a bit more, I think they'll ride it out, even though Ed Balls really is a 'horrible b'stard. Still, it's fun to read, even though it's slightly scary that someone as unsuited to being PM as Gordon Brown, actually got the job.
This didn't make a jot of difference to Ed Balls position either..he just rides it out, the same with this "Mr McBride" business.
Just got back from the UKIP conference (as a non-partisan stallholder), chatted to a lot of delegates. Trying to give a fair impression:
- Demography wasn't as lopsided as one might expect. Plenty of women, some young people, some black people. pensioners group slightly above average, young middle age below average. - Most people perfectly pleasant (including those who already knew my political background, or asked, and including JackW (who looks very well)). No different to any other conference in that way. - Slightly more nutty cases than average - e.g. a chap who was haranguing the Campaign for an English Parliament lady on the "fact" that Britain had had a series of National Socialist governments because they supported the National health service: "Um, I'm not sure I'd go that far", she murmured politely. And a couple of other obsessives who you wouldn't want to share a long train journey with. - But very few obviously weird people overall. Rather, a predominance of wistful nostalgia - people saying yes, they weren't against progress, but weren't we giving up too much of our old values? Not very many people I'd call seriously political in the hardcore sense of years of campaigning on this and that, and only a tiny number of the slick organiser type who are quite visible at the other conferences. A few were intensely into anti-EU sentiments, others just vaguely unhappy with how things were going. Lots of support for animal protection. - Delegates were disconcerted by the Bloom business, but hoping for the best. Mixed feelings on wehther he should have been stamped on or ignored; nobody actually defended him.
Overall, confirmed my feeling that I disagree with UKIP on almost everything, but I don't see any reason to detest them as I detest the BNP. The people I met generally meant well, and there are worse things than that.
Sorry for the mishap.
You write a fairly fair appraisal of the conference, nearly headless. I was sorry to miss day two but other matters intervened. I was very surprised that JackW was present. Does he look his 106 years of age and I'm sure his ARSE wasn't showing.
I'm coming from the opposite end of the spectrum from you on this one Richard. I'd much rather astound them with my ingratitude as it's better sport. ;-)
Do you think so AB?
Personally I find the 'arrogant bstard northerner' persona aggravates them far more than the sterotypical 'grumpy ungrateful northerner'.
Making condescending comments about the pitiful hovels that they're mortgaged up to the hilts for is great fun. As in making references to commuting times and beer prices.
;-)
Conversely, my one bed Camden flat, for which I paid £325K less than four years ago, is now worth close on half a million. Heh.
And the £290K flat I bought 15 years ago allowed me to trade into something nicer that is worth a little more...
And, the house I bought in 1990 for £135k, with 1.5 years mortgage to pay is worth....
The wealthy foreigners have done me good ! The shade of money they have brought in is of dubious quality sometimes. Terrible for many, particularly first time buyers, I do accept.
Recently, I have ventured into the commercial property market in West London. There you will come across a big surprise comparing 1989/90 to now.
How do you know Miliband would say the reverse ? It is called preparing the "polical market" for a change of policy. Also, opens up some money to spend in the next parliament though 2015 - 2020 would not see all those mega billions. The other pot of gold is Trident.
How do you know Miliband would say the reverse ? It is called preparing the "polical market" for a change of policy. Also, opens up some money to spend in the next parliament though 2015 - 2020 would not see all those mega billions. The other pot of gold is Trident.
And more spending on top of the welfare giveaways - these Labour people have really got this economy thing sussed - oh wait.....
@MrTFS –“it doesn't tell us much that we didn't know or suspect already. Blair and Brown were too busy fighting to pay much attention to the running of the country and Brown was positively barmy.”
Two points. Political nerds may be familiar with the plots and intrigues that took place within Downing St – However, it will have come as a bit of a surprise for the vast majority I suspect – and it’s also amusing for the nerds to see speculation, finally confirmed and in print.
"Remember this: had Mr Cameron got his way, Tomahawk missiles were due to hit Damascus within 48 hours of that Commons vote. Ed Miliband’s level-headed demand for evidence, and respect for due process in the shape of the United Nations, bought the world time to think again. As a result, Assad has agreed to destroy his chemical weapons peacefully, thus creating the space for possible talks in Geneva that (let us pray) may bring an end to the conflict. "
I couldn't say I am an admirer of Peter Oborne but he puts it straight here. whether you like it or not.
BTW - I went to your 'visit' page, clicked on the 'home' link on the banner, and get a 404. Just thought I'd mention. ;-)
Sure - send me a PM and am sure we can figure out something. I'm not there much myself (no one lives there any more) but sure that one of the team from the foundation can show you around. Worst case we'll let you know when the next Friends tour is, although they may hit you up for £10...
I'm coming from the opposite end of the spectrum from you on this one Richard. I'd much rather astound them with my ingratitude as it's better sport. ;-)
Do you think so AB?
Personally I find the 'arrogant bstard northerner' persona aggravates them far more than the sterotypical 'grumpy ungrateful northerner'.
Making condescending comments about the pitiful hovels that they're mortgaged up to the hilts for is great fun. As in making references to commuting times and beer prices.
;-)
Conversely, my one bed Camden flat, for which I paid £325K less than four years ago, is now worth close on half a million. Heh.
And the £290K flat I bought 15 years ago allowed me to trade into something nicer that is worth a little more...
And, the house I bought in 1990 for £135k, with 1.5 years mortgage to pay is worth....
The wealthy foreigners have done me good ! The shade of money they have brought in is of dubious quality sometimes. Terrible for many, particularly first time buyers, I do accept.
Recently, I have ventured into the commercial property market in West London. There you will come across a big surprise comparing 1989/90 to now.
We prefer SW London for commercial property ;-)
But yes: for those who bought early they have gained a lot from the inflow of foreign money and lower interest rates. I'm better placed than most of my generation (I bought in my early 20s thanks to a Help to Buy scheme from my Dad - he underwrote the loan, but it didn't cost him a penny) but there is no way we could afford a house in the area we live in now
BTW - I went to your 'visit' page, clicked on the 'home' link on the banner, and get a 404. Just thought I'd mention. ;-)
Sure - send me a PM and am sure we can figure out something. I'm not there much myself (no one lives there any more) but sure that one of the team from the foundation can show you around. Worst case we'll let you know when the next Friends tour is, although they may hit you up for £10...
"Remember this: had Mr Cameron got his way, Tomahawk missiles were due to hit Damascus within 48 hours of that Commons vote. Ed Miliband’s level-headed demand for evidence, and respect for due process in the shape of the United Nations, bought the world time to think again. As a result, Assad has agreed to destroy his chemical weapons peacefully, thus creating the space for possible talks in Geneva that (let us pray) may bring an end to the conflict. "
I couldn't say I am an admirer of Peter Oborne but he puts it straight here. whether you like it or not.
This is complete counterfactual nonsense, Surby.
The role of the UK was to support the US apply the maximum pressure on Russia, Syria and Iran in order to secure a negotiated resolution of the CW issue through the UNSC.
This goal, which at the moment looks likely to be achieved, was only secured through the US's threat of military intervention being perceived as credible. And to be credible you have to have the political will and military capability to participate in military action as a last resort.
Obama was never going to launch a strike on Syria prior to or during the G20 meeting in St Petersburg, whatever the outcome of the UK Parliamentary vote on Syria.
What Miliband did by splitting the HoC vote was to undermine the UK's diplomatic role in the eyes of Russia, Syria and Iran and in the international community. It also weakened, but not fatally, the position of the US, our country's closest international ally, at a critical point in the negotiations.
It was a dishonourable and unstatesmanlike action which subverted the country's foreign policy interests purely for domestic party political gain.
"Remember this: had Mr Cameron got his way, Tomahawk missiles were due to hit Damascus within 48 hours of that Commons vote. Ed Miliband’s level-headed demand for evidence, and respect for due process in the shape of the United Nations, bought the world time to think again. As a result, Assad has agreed to destroy his chemical weapons peacefully, thus creating the space for possible talks in Geneva that (let us pray) may bring an end to the conflict. "
I couldn't say I am an admirer of Peter Oborne but he puts it straight here. whether you like it or not.
This is complete counterfactual nonsense, Surby.
The role of the UK was to support the US apply the maximum pressure on Russia, Syria and Iran in order to secure a negotiated resolution of the CW issue through the UNSC.
This goal, which at the moment looks likely to be achieved, was only secured through the US's threat of military intervention being perceived as credible. And to be credible you have to have the political will and military capability to participate in military action as a last resort.
Obama was never going to launch a strike on Syria prior to or during the G20 meeting in St Petersburg, whatever the outcome of the UK Parliamentary vote on Syria.
What Miliband did by splitting the HoC vote was to undermine the UK's diplomatic role in the eyes of Russia, Syria and Iran and in the international community. It also weakened, but not fatally, the position of the US, our country's closest international ally, at a critical point in the negotiations.
It was a dishonourable and unstatesmanlike action which subverted the country's foreign policy interests purely for domestic party political gain.
Just as important is that Ed's line wasn't consistent and the result of the vote wasn't his line either. If you want to look principled then you need to follow through properly; if not, you can get points for it working out but not for any principled stand.
Conversely, my one bed Camden flat, for which I paid £325K less than four years ago, is now worth close on half a million. Heh.
See above.
If that keeps you happy then I'm genuinely happy for you.
But it does make you sound insecure.
Everyone I know also has houses which have gone up significantly in value but they don't feel the need to talk about it.
Note they have houses - a four bed detached in a nice area or a one bed flat where the rioters were marauding in 2011.
Each to their own of course.
I was joking. You were banging on about how you like to wind up Londoners, I responded with a jibe/fact that, I know for sure, winds up non-Londoners. As your reply attests.
Anyway I have property-envy of my own. I want a two bed in this same area. Cannot possibly afford it.
On the contrary Sean you didn't wind me up at all.
But if it gives you pleasure to believe so then believe on.
But my point about the irrelevance of price rises if you want to stay in the same area seems to have hit home. In fact for those who want to 'trade up', such as yourself, then rising house prices is a bad thing. That two bed flat would have been an extra £50K more than youre one bed flat two years ago, now its an extra £100K.
And at the end of the day I've still got the nice detached house and you've still got the one bed flat.
But curious you felt the need to stress that your comment was a joke - are you sure I didn't wind you up Sean ;-)
If Mike had taken off his Westminster-tinted spectacles he might have instead written:
* With the Tory prospects for EURO2014 starting to look better, the Yes prospects for IndyRef2014 start to look better too.
* If the English Tories start to recover the main beneficiary will be the Scottish National Party. Spirits in the Yes camp must have surged overnight.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum
Yes 9/2 (StanJames, Ladbrokes) No 2/9 (Betfair)
If true then it also enhances Tory prospects for future GE's in England
The more that English Conservatives start to believe that the happier I become.
I'm for ever fascinated why Nats think english conservatives are holding back independence rather than Scots Labour voters. It's the Nat inferiority complex in all its glory.
Straw-man misrepresentation Alan. In fact, it was my contention that English Conservatives are assisting the move to Scottish independence, not holding it back.
I flagged up my suspicion recently that OGH maths in adding the 'rock bottom' Lab vote of 2010 + the red LibDems = 35% for Ed at the next election...
saying I believed that you couldn't assume those who voted Lab in 2010 would all do so again, perhaps 'fear of nurse for something worse' played a part in that vote...
Out of Labour’s lost 2010 voters, almost 1 in 5 are now supporting the Conservatives (18%) and 1 in 10 (10%) the Lib Dems. Add-in those who’ve switched to UKIP and over a third of these lost voters have shifted to parties to the right of today’s Labour party.
In contrast, just 1 in 20 have moved left to the Greens, with most of the rest (41%) undecided.
Rising London property prices should also be a concern to anyone who values the future wellbeing of the City.
Higher property prices means higher costs for the business located there, not just directly but also through having to pay their employees extra so that they can afford to live within commuting distance. Not to mention having their employees gowing increasing complacent because their flats are increasing in value.
Inevitably this brings forward the day when City business relocates to cheaper and hungrier rivals.
House prices rise and fall at varying rates in different regions of the country. We are hearing a lot about London prices rising disproportionately but little is said about London prices habing fallen more than elsewhere after the financial crash.
Here are some ONS figures:
================================================================ ONS HPI (07/13) UK London England Wales Scotland N.I. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Labour 1997 Q2 61.2 52.8 59.7 65.6 82.4 63.5 Index 2002 Feb 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2007 Q3 183.6 170.2 178.5 216.9 222.5 278.6 Peak 2007 Oct 184.4 171.0 179.2 221.6 225.2 276.7 Coalition 2010 Q2 175.5 160.2 171.5 205.6 219.2 179.6 2012 Q2 175.7 182.8 172.7 198.0 213.3 141.3 Last Qtr. 2013 Q2 180.8 195.4 177.9 205.4 212.3 141.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------- LABOUR UK London England Wales Scotland N.I. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Total Growth 1997 Q1 - 2010 Q2 186.8% 203.4% 187.3% 213.4% 166.0% 182.8% Average Annual Growth 1997 Q1 - 2010 Q2 8.5% 10.0% 8.5% 8.9% 7.6% 6.3% - Pre peak 1997 Q1 - 2007 Q3 11.0% 11.8% 11.0% 12.1% 9.9% 15.1% - Post peak 2007 Q3 - 2010 Q2 (1.6%) (2.2%) (1.4%) (1.9%) (0.5%)(14.8%) ---------------------------------------------------------------- COALITION UK London England Wales Scotland N.I. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Total Growth 2010 Q2 - 2013 Q2 3.0% 22.0% 3.7% (0.1%) (3.1%)(21.1%) Average Annual Growth 2010 Q2 - 2013 Q2 1.0% 6.8% 1.2% (0.0%) (1.1%) (7.6%) - First 2 Years 2010 Q2 - 2013 Q2 0.0% 4.5% 0.2% (1.2%) (0.9%) (7.7%) - Last Year 2012 Q2 - 2013 Q2 2.9% 6.9% 3.0% 3.7% (0.5%) 0.3% ================================================================
FWIW, I have always thought that UKIP will come 3rd in 2014. The fact that they came 2nd in 2009 is misleading, because the Labour vote was unusually low in unusual circumstances. The percentage vote (17%) is a more realistic indicator than the position (2nd).
Rising London property prices should also be a concern to anyone who values the future wellbeing of the City.
Higher property prices means higher costs for the business located there, not just directly but also through having to pay their employees extra so that they can afford to live within commuting distance. Not to mention having their employees gowing increasing complacent because their flats are increasing in value.
Inevitably this brings forward the day when City business relocates to cheaper and hungrier rivals.
I had a very pleasant drink last night with someone who has a lot of insight in these matters.
His view was that since about 2006/7 the property market has not been driven by the City as incomes have been severely compressed, especially the cash portions.
That said, your second point is fair: I know members of my team struggle to afford to buy even a small flat within commutable distance of the office. Cost of living is a real issue for them.
Rising London property prices should also be a concern to anyone who values the future wellbeing of the City.
Higher property prices means higher costs for the business located there, not just directly but also through having to pay their employees extra so that they can afford to live within commuting distance. Not to mention having their employees gowing increasing complacent because their flats are increasing in value.
Inevitably this brings forward the day when City business relocates to cheaper and hungrier rivals.
Had to prune back all comment from my previous post to get the table in within the character limit.
Even though London prices have increased over the last year by 6.9% and 22% since the beginning of the coalition, their starting point was lower.
With the ONS index based at 100 in February 2002, London prices had grown by 60% in the last eight years of the noughties compared with 105% in Wales and 120% in Scotland and 75% in England (including London so distorted down).
What has happened over the past three years in may just be London catching up with the rest of the country. I realise there are other arguments for London prices rising - like cash purchases of prime London properties by foreign nationals - but the ONS index is 'mix adjusted'. This means that it is based on a representative basket of property types and therefore is less sensitive to prime property rising at a faster rate than the rest.
Lots of tories will vote for Cameron, even though they are not impressed with him. Similarly, EdM will gain lots of votes from tribal socialists, even though they don't rate him.
But Farage has a poor day, and we're told the UKIP vote will 'collapse', even amoung those who want out of the EU. It might, but not because of a very ordinary performance at a party conference.
Just got back from the UKIP conference (as a non-partisan stallholder), chatted to a lot of delegates. Trying to give a fair impression:
- Demography wasn't as lopsided as one might expect. Plenty of women, some young people, some black people. pensioners group slightly above average, young middle age below average. - Most people perfectly pleasant (including those who already knew my political background, or asked, and including JackW (who looks very well)). No different to any other conference in that way. - Slightly more nutty cases than average - e.g. a chap who was haranguing the Campaign for an English Parliament lady on the "fact" that Britain had had a series of National Socialist governments because they supported the National health service: "Um, I'm not sure I'd go that far", she murmured politely. And a couple of other obsessives who you wouldn't want to share a long train journey with. - But very few obviously weird people overall. Rather, a predominance of wistful nostalgia - people saying yes, they weren't against progress, but weren't we giving up too much of our old values? Not very many people I'd call seriously political in the hardcore sense of years of campaigning on this and that, and only a tiny number of the slick organiser type who are quite visible at the other conferences. A few were intensely into anti-EU sentiments, others just vaguely unhappy with how things were going. Lots of support for animal protection. - Delegates were disconcerted by the Bloom business, but hoping for the best. Mixed feelings on wehther he should have been stamped on or ignored; nobody actually defended him.
Overall, confirmed my feeling that I disagree with UKIP on almost everything, but I don't see any reason to detest them as I detest the BNP. The people I met generally meant well, and there are worse things than that.
Typically excellent post Nick. The natural UKIP supporter is a casualty of modernity who no longer feels comfortable in their own country.
Can anyone explain to me in simple terms how the child benefit changes lead to 70% marginal rates of taxation?
You mean you don't know yet you pronounced Bobajobs comment the most ridiculous you'd ever read?
Well I can see that if you have several kids and you are paying child care and claiming associated tax credits then an effective 70% marginal rate (and higher) is achieved. It's the idea that this will cause Londoners to stop their career progression when earning £50k rather than push on and get beyond the high marginal rates that makes me laugh. Having said all that, I take the point that withdrawing tax credit and child benefit in the same earnings band is dumb. The thresholds for the former should be much lower.
Not seen anyone comment on the marginal rates caused by the student loan arrangements. With two kids at Uni, if we were to increase our earnings from the £22k we have to about £40k we as a family would lose nearly £7k in maintenance grants. On top of PAYE and NI that gives a marginal rate of about 50%. No doubt loss of tax credits would make it worse if we had younger kids too.
Taking a start point of 2002 is daft, go back to the trough (or best affordability point if you were looking at any other commodity) in the mid nineties
It is not me indexing at 2002, tim. It is the ONS.
I agree that it doesn't make a lot of sense and I guess they will revise it soon, but I can't be arsed to reindex it all. The actual stats go back to 1968 (UK Index end Q2 1968 = 3.6!).
If you really think there is a distortion due to the indexing, I'll have a look.
Apart from a briefing that led the Observer's Andrew Rawnsley to quote an unnamed source describing Brown as "psychologically flawed" and "losing my temper in briefings about Clare Short", Campbell said he had never briefed against a minister. "I never ever did it," he said.
Just got back from the UKIP conference (as a non-partisan stallholder), chatted to a lot of delegates. Trying to give a fair impression:
- Demography wasn't as lopsided as one might expect. Plenty of women, some young people, some black people. pensioners group slightly above average, young middle age below average. - Most people perfectly pleasant (including those who already knew my political background, or asked, and including JackW (who looks very well)). No different to any other conference in that way. - Slightly more nutty cases than average - e.g. a chap who was haranguing the Campaign for an English Parliament lady on the "fact" that Britain had had a series of National Socialist governments because they supported the National health service: "Um, I'm not sure I'd go that far", she murmured politely. And a couple of other obsessives who you wouldn't want to share a long train journey with. - But very few obviously weird people overall. Rather, a predominance of wistful nostalgia - people saying yes, they weren't against progress, but weren't we giving up too much of our old values? Not very many people I'd call seriously political in the hardcore sense of years of campaigning on this and that, and only a tiny number of the slick organiser type who are quite visible at the other conferences. A few were intensely into anti-EU sentiments, others just vaguely unhappy with how things were going. Lots of support for animal protection. - Delegates were disconcerted by the Bloom business, but hoping for the best. Mixed feelings on wehther he should have been stamped on or ignored; nobody actually defended him.
Overall, confirmed my feeling that I disagree with UKIP on almost everything, but I don't see any reason to detest them as I detest the BNP. The people I met generally meant well, and there are worse things than that.
Typically excellent post Nick. The natural UKIP supporter is a casualty of modernity who no longer feels comfortable in their own country.
The interesting thing is most of their supporters and activists are not elderly people born in the 1920s and 30s. They're mostly people who didn't have any problem with the changes Britain went through in the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s.
Taking a start point of 2002 is daft, go back to the trough (or best affordability point if you were looking at any other commodity) in the mid nineties
Again in the interests of factual evidence, the growth rates in London were accelerating into the summer. I have used quarterly figures for the comparative chart posted below (as monthly stats weren't available back to 1997). So to see the impact of July 2013's growth here is a supplementary table.
Although these figures show a substantially higher rise in London, it should be noted that various indices over July and August have been reporting falls in London so we need to be cautious about assuming the early summer growth rates will continue unabated.
================================================================ ONS HPI to July 2013 UK London England Wales Scotland N.I. ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2010 June 175.5 160.2 171.5 205.6 219.2 179.6 2012 July 179.1 186.5 175.8 206.3 219.9 141.0 2013 July 185.0 204.7 182.4 204.8 215.4 143.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------- COALITION UK London England Wales Scotland N.I. Total Growth 2010 Q2 - 2013 Jul 5.4% 27.8% 6.4% (0.4%) (1.7%)(20.1%) 2012 Jul- 2013 Jul 3.3% 9.8% 3.8% (0.7%) (2.0%) 1.8% ================================================================
Just got back from the UKIP conference (as a non-partisan stallholder), chatted to a lot of delegates. Trying to give a fair impression:
- Demography wasn't as lopsided as one might expect. Plenty of women, some young people, some black people. pensioners group slightly above average, young middle age below average. - Most people perfectly pleasant (including those who already knew my political background, or asked, and including JackW (who looks very well)). No different to any other conference in that way. - Slightly more nutty cases than average - e.g. a chap who was haranguing the Campaign for an English Parliament lady on the "fact" that Britain had had a series of National Socialist governments because they supported the National health service: "Um, I'm not sure I'd go that far", she murmured politely. And a couple of other obsessives who you wouldn't want to share a long train journey with. - But very few obviously weird people overall. Rather, a predominance of wistful nostalgia - people saying yes, they weren't against progress, but weren't we giving up too much of our old values? Not very many people I'd call seriously political in the hardcore sense of years of campaigning on this and that, and only a tiny number of the slick organiser type who are quite visible at the other conferences. A few were intensely into anti-EU sentiments, others just vaguely unhappy with how things were going. Lots of support for animal protection. - Delegates were disconcerted by the Bloom business, but hoping for the best. Mixed feelings on wehther he should have been stamped on or ignored; nobody actually defended him.
Overall, confirmed my feeling that I disagree with UKIP on almost everything, but I don't see any reason to detest them as I detest the BNP. The people I met generally meant well, and there are worse things than that.
And there would have been dispropotionate number who were on PTAs, were willing to clear footpaths or pick up litter. Not necessarily compared with other parties, but compared with the general population.
Conference attendees should be given more respect than they usually receive----for sure, they all care.
I've had a bet of £25 with paddy power on the next german government: CDU/CSU/AfD @ 25/1
Sorry, Mike, but I'm sure that's a loser. Merkel has categorically ruled it out. She would explicitly prefer a coalition with the SPD, which will certainly be possible. The AfD have ruled it out too, I think.
I'm less sure about Andy's certainty. He might well be right - their surge has come at precisely the right moment. But nearly every poll is showing them under 5%, and there doesn't seem any special reason why their supporters should be embarrassed.
Holding the euro together given the structural geometry that she inherited and everything that has gone wrong in the last 5 years has been a truly incredible achievement. Many, many people (including me) on the right or eurosceptic wing completely underestimated her. Repeatedly.
Rising London property prices should also be a concern to anyone who values the future wellbeing of the City.
Higher property prices means higher costs for the business located there, not just directly but also through having to pay their employees extra so that they can afford to live within commuting distance. Not to mention having their employees gowing increasing complacent because their flats are increasing in value.
Inevitably this brings forward the day when City business relocates to cheaper and hungrier rivals.
But the state subsidises all this through housing benefit otherwise there wouldn't be a workforce. As we've seen on this thread the people who think they are benefiting like Sean will always be trumped by the old money like Charles who's dads pony up as soon as they come down from Oxbridge. And hot money from around the world gets a return of course knowing that politicians will never let the house of cards collapse
My Dad didn't pony up anything. He used a little bit of theoretical financing capacity in underwriting a loan (with a third party building society). Helpful, but essentially cost free (his core banking relationship is quite flexible on lending ratios for him). It just made Portman feel happier.
Last time the labour lot were in power, my consistent issue with them was them taking too much in tax and then hosing it down the drain by either spending it on the unworthy or by their complete incompetence with money. As none of them had ever run a real business, they simply could not comprehend that you can improve most activities of government by spending less and being efficient.
So the "new" policies of Ed is to do it all over again. I know the great electorate general dont understand numbers, but how do labour expect more of the same old rubbish that created most of the problems in the first place to win an election?
Vote UKIP, get a socialist government who lets the EU walk all over us surely must help Cameron.
Comments
Bangkok's public transport, apart from the buses (ugh) is excellent, BUT has nowhere near the coverage London's Underground provides. London's buses, of course, are infinitely superior
On the other hand, small can be beautiful:
A 1200-year chapel:
http://www.bradwellchapel.org/sphistory.htm
Or a Saxon timber church (from Sunil's neck o' the woods). Perhaps the oldest church in the world, and a wonderful place:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greensted_Church
Asked to choose between a third runway at Heathrow and High Speed 2, Balls replies: "third runway". Miliband would say the reverse.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/09/balls-contradicts-miliband-he-backs-third-runway-over-hs2
Seems slightly odd that 12th century churches look better than most modern churches.
BTW - I went to your 'visit' page, clicked on the 'home' link on the banner, and get a 404. Just thought I'd mention. ;-)
Al-Shabaab.
My Aussie ex was an atheist, and flat-refused to go into any churches with me until we visited York. I went walking for the day and, bored, she went into the Minster. She always visited churches with me after that. You don't have to be religious to take a joy in the objects that people created in His name.
Some new buildings can also be spectacular, but have to be very special to make up for the lack of the patina that age gives a structure.
It's why I'm a firm advocate of relaxing the planning laws to allow old buildings to be sympathetically altered in a modern way. Add the best of our world to those of the past.
I thought Old St Pancras's claim was more the site of the church, rather than the substantial church structure itself?
St Wystan's church at Repton has an early 8th-century crypt. I used to go to services there as a kid, as well as learning to swim in the outdoor pool nearby ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Wystan's_Church,_Repton
Have you ever visited any of the chapel's carved from caves in Cappadocia? Quite spectacular, especially if you go out of season when they're covered in snow.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churches_of_Göreme,_Turkey
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/boxing/24185997
Ed Miliband has said he is "bringing back socialism" to Britain as he unveiled new plans to strengthen the minimum wage ahead of the Labour Party conference.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10325076/Ed-Miliband-Im-bringing-socialism-back-to-Britain.html
Witnesses say attackers told Muslims to leave Nairobi's Westgate centre and shot people they believed were non-Muslim
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/21/gunmen-kenyan-shopping-centre-nairobi
Several other media outlets now carrying that they believe it is a terrorist attack, rather than as initially reported as a robbery gone wrong.
How many actively voted against LD then?
I think I've mentioned it before, but just down the inland path to St Ives from Zennor, I came across an old ruined chapel, all overgrown. It freaked me out when I tripped over an old gravestone.
https://ssl.panoramio.com/photo/75286036
And I've been in St Just in Roseland church as well:
http://www.britishwalks.org/walks/2003/340.php
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24186780
I've spent a few hours in there. RIP to all the victims.
Ed Balls' visage appears about 3 inches below Gromit's upturned tail.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24184473
pic.twitter.com/5d61Phuo8d
Miliband in a Q&A told a member of the public that he was bringing back socialism. That animal sound you heard was Lynton Crosby climaxing.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/09/20/gchq_belgacom_hack_link/
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/british-spy-agency-gchq-hacked-belgian-telecoms-firm-a-923406.html
- Demography wasn't as lopsided as one might expect. Plenty of women, some young people, some black people. pensioners group slightly above average, young middle age below average.
- Most people perfectly pleasant (including those who already knew my political background, or asked, and including JackW (who looks very well)). No different to any other conference in that way.
- Slightly more nutty cases than average - e.g. a chap who was haranguing the Campaign for an English Parliament lady on the "fact" that Britain had had a series of National Socialist governments because they supported the National health service: "Um, I'm not sure I'd go that far", she murmured politely. And a couple of other obsessives who you wouldn't want to share a long train journey with.
- But very few obviously weird people overall. Rather, a predominance of wistful nostalgia - people saying yes, they weren't against progress, but weren't we giving up too much of our old values? Not very many people I'd call seriously political in the hardcore sense of years of campaigning on this and that, and only a tiny number of the slick organiser type who are quite visible at the other conferences. A few were intensely into anti-EU sentiments, others just vaguely unhappy with how things were going. Lots of support for animal protection.
- Delegates were disconcerted by the Bloom business, but hoping for the best. Mixed feelings on wehther he should have been stamped on or ignored; nobody actually defended him.
Overall, confirmed my feeling that I disagree with UKIP on almost everything, but I don't see any reason to detest them as I detest the BNP. The people I met generally meant well, and there are worse things than that.
Unless the Labour Eds get implemented a bit more, I think they'll ride it out, even though Ed Balls really is a 'horrible b'stard.
Still, it's fun to read, even though it's slightly scary that someone as unsuited to being PM as Gordon Brown, actually got the job.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/8566987/Labour-coup-The-Ed-Balls-files-database.html
You write a fairly fair appraisal of the conference, nearly headless. I was sorry to miss day two but other matters intervened. I was very surprised that JackW was present. Does he look his 106 years of age and I'm sure his ARSE wasn't showing.
The wealthy foreigners have done me good ! The shade of money they have brought in is of dubious quality sometimes. Terrible for many, particularly first time buyers, I do accept.
Recently, I have ventured into the commercial property market in West London. There you will come across a big surprise comparing 1989/90 to now.
Hmmmm NPXMP nice about UKIP - not suspicious at all.
Two points. Political nerds may be familiar with the plots and intrigues that took place within Downing St – However, it will have come as a bit of a surprise for the vast majority I suspect – and it’s also amusing for the nerds to see speculation, finally confirmed and in print.
From the Ed Balls' files database. Good reading !
"Remember this: had Mr Cameron got his way, Tomahawk missiles were due to hit Damascus within 48 hours of that Commons vote. Ed Miliband’s level-headed demand for evidence, and respect for due process in the shape of the United Nations, bought the world time to think again. As a result, Assad has agreed to destroy his chemical weapons peacefully, thus creating the space for possible talks in Geneva that (let us pray) may bring an end to the conflict. "
I couldn't say I am an admirer of Peter Oborne but he puts it straight here. whether you like it or not.
Twitter
norman smith @BBCNormanS 49s
Tories hold 18 point lead over Labour on managing the economy says @IpsosMORI poll #lab13
Edward Mayes @eljmayes 10m
Ipsos MORI "Which Party has the best policies on managing the economy?" Poll- CON 38 LAB 20
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-160.htm
But yes: for those who bought early they have gained a lot from the inflow of foreign money and lower interest rates. I'm better placed than most of my generation (I bought in my early 20s thanks to a Help to Buy scheme from my Dad - he underwrote the loan, but it didn't cost him a penny) but there is no way we could afford a house in the area we live in now
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-199.htm
http://www.channel4.com/news/politics-ipsos-mori-polling-labour-lib-dem-conservative
All indications are that this attack was both sectarian and also, potentially, foccussed on Westerners (that includes Israelis)
The obvious conclusion is Al Shabaab from nearby Somalia but some of the accents suggest its got wider scope.
The role of the UK was to support the US apply the maximum pressure on Russia, Syria and Iran in order to secure a negotiated resolution of the CW issue through the UNSC.
This goal, which at the moment looks likely to be achieved, was only secured through the US's threat of military intervention being perceived as credible. And to be credible you have to have the political will and military capability to participate in military action as a last resort.
Obama was never going to launch a strike on Syria prior to or during the G20 meeting in St Petersburg, whatever the outcome of the UK Parliamentary vote on Syria.
What Miliband did by splitting the HoC vote was to undermine the UK's diplomatic role in the eyes of Russia, Syria and Iran and in the international community. It also weakened, but not fatally, the position of the US, our country's closest international ally, at a critical point in the negotiations.
It was a dishonourable and unstatesmanlike action which subverted the country's foreign policy interests purely for domestic party political gain.
But if it gives you pleasure to believe so then believe on.
But my point about the irrelevance of price rises if you want to stay in the same area seems to have hit home. In fact for those who want to 'trade up', such as yourself, then rising house prices is a bad thing. That two bed flat would have been an extra £50K more than youre one bed flat two years ago, now its an extra £100K.
And at the end of the day I've still got the nice detached house and you've still got the one bed flat.
But curious you felt the need to stress that your comment was a joke - are you sure I didn't wind you up Sean ;-)
saying I believed that you couldn't assume those who voted Lab in 2010 would all do so again, perhaps 'fear of nurse for something worse' played a part in that vote...
I'd suggest this research might support my view?
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/09/21/exclusive-uncut-poll-over-1-in-4-2010-lab-voters-have-been-lost-here’s-what-can-be-done-to-win-them-back/#more-17194
In contrast, just 1 in 20 have moved left to the Greens, with most of the rest (41%) undecided.
Higher property prices means higher costs for the business located there, not just directly but also through having to pay their employees extra so that they can afford to live within commuting distance. Not to mention having their employees gowing increasing complacent because their flats are increasing in value.
Inevitably this brings forward the day when City business relocates to cheaper and hungrier rivals.
I don't like the hassle of being a landlord, but the market seems to be going only one way for the next year.
5% swing:
Lab -> 73
Con -> 80
LD -> 43
10% swing:
Lab -> 125 (additional 52 seats)
Con -> 150 (additional 70 seats)
LD -> 127 (additional 84 seats)
House prices rise and fall at varying rates in different regions of the country. We are hearing a lot about London prices rising disproportionately but little is said about London prices habing fallen more than elsewhere after the financial crash.
Here are some ONS figures:
Some people are embarrassed to admit they're supporting them and therefore the polls are likely to be underestimating their numbers a bit.
His view was that since about 2006/7 the property market has not been driven by the City as incomes have been severely compressed, especially the cash portions.
That said, your second point is fair: I know members of my team struggle to afford to buy even a small flat within commutable distance of the office. Cost of living is a real issue for them.
Even though London prices have increased over the last year by 6.9% and 22% since the beginning of the coalition, their starting point was lower.
With the ONS index based at 100 in February 2002, London prices had grown by 60% in the last eight years of the noughties compared with 105% in Wales and 120% in Scotland and 75% in England (including London so distorted down).
What has happened over the past three years in may just be London catching up with the rest of the country. I realise there are other arguments for London prices rising - like cash purchases of prime London properties by foreign nationals - but the ONS index is 'mix adjusted'. This means that it is based on a representative basket of property types and therefore is less sensitive to prime property rising at a faster rate than the rest.
But Farage has a poor day, and we're told the UKIP vote will 'collapse', even amoung those who want out of the EU. It might, but not because of a very ordinary performance at a party conference.
Not seen anyone comment on the marginal rates caused by the student loan arrangements. With two kids at Uni, if we were to increase our earnings from the £22k we have to about £40k we as a family would lose nearly £7k in maintenance grants. On top of PAYE and NI that gives a marginal rate of about 50%. No doubt loss of tax credits would make it worse if we had younger kids too.
I agree that it doesn't make a lot of sense and I guess they will revise it soon, but I can't be arsed to reindex it all. The actual stats go back to 1968 (UK Index end Q2 1968 = 3.6!).
If you really think there is a distortion due to the indexing, I'll have a look.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2013/09/german-election-diary-5
Apart from a briefing that led the Observer's Andrew Rawnsley to quote an unnamed source describing Brown as "psychologically flawed" and "losing my temper in briefings about Clare Short", Campbell said he had never briefed against a minister. "I never ever did it," he said.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/21/damian-mcbride-labour-alastair-campbell-miliband
Although these figures show a substantially higher rise in London, it should be noted that various indices over July and August have been reporting falls in London so we need to be cautious about assuming the early summer growth rates will continue unabated.
Conference attendees should be given more respect than they usually receive----for sure, they all care.
I'm less sure about Andy's certainty. He might well be right - their surge has come at precisely the right moment. But nearly every poll is showing them under 5%, and there doesn't seem any special reason why their supporters should be embarrassed.
Telegraph - Ed Miliband: I'm bringing socialism back to Britain
Holding the euro together given the structural geometry that she inherited and everything that has gone wrong in the last 5 years has been a truly incredible achievement. Many, many people (including me) on the right or eurosceptic wing completely underestimated her. Repeatedly.
So the "new" policies of Ed is to do it all over again. I know the great electorate general dont understand numbers, but how do labour expect more of the same old rubbish that created most of the problems in the first place to win an election?
Vote UKIP, get a socialist government who lets the EU walk all over us surely must help Cameron.