politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the media narrative moving against UKIP the Tory prosp
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the media narrative moving against UKIP the Tory prospects for EURO2014 start to look better
However you look at yesterday’s events at the Ukip conference it is hard to see how it has advanced the purples’ cause. Farage and his team were put under pressure from a hostile media and didn’t perform very well.
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* With the Tory prospects for EURO2014 starting to look better, the Yes prospects for IndyRef2014 start to look better too.
* If the English Tories start to recover the main beneficiary will be the Scottish National Party. Spirits in the Yes camp must have surged overnight.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum
Yes 9/2 (StanJames, Ladbrokes)
No 2/9 (Betfair)
Meanwhile back at the North Queensferry control bunker, a new supply of Nokia phones are on order as the McBride book leads to a surge in mobile phone sales (and repairs) in the Edinburgh/Fife coastal area.
Milibland the Younger had better be very sure there is no paper trail leading from him to either Draper or McBride. We can be sure the Daily Mail and the News International stable will be sniffing around for evidence, if in fact they don't already have it.
For politicos and Westminster village types, none of the McBride revelations are new. However for the general public, news that a PM's intimate team of handlers including Balls, Bland the Younger, McBride and Draper were operating a media department allegedly aimed more at smearing others than spinning news will come as new and for many a shock.
Gordon Brown has made loads of enemies over the past 3 decades and frankly many of them still have wounds to lick. Would be very surprised if the Daily Mail doesn't have its best splash for the night before the Leader's speech at the Labour Conference.
Best thing right now for David Cameron is for the Tory Conference to be slightly lacklustre and boring with no-one rocking the boat. Bloom and McBride seem to be doing it all for him.
In Scotland, this could transform the YES campaign. I have long said that Eck's best hope is the likelihood of another Cameron government in "England" and the Brown revelations will disappoint many Scots who were blinkered towards Brown.
I am not sure about your statement "none of the McBride revelations are new". This story was certainly new for me, and will cause spasms in the SLAB body politic. Oh, the joys of schadenfreude.
'Douglas Alexander stabbed sister in back - McBride' http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/douglas-alexander-stabbed-sister-in-back-mcbride-1-3105134
Everyone knew why Wendy was really sacked, but it is nice to have confirmation that it was the “bring it on" that ended her career.
Euros will be hard to anticipate, but may become clearer after the German elections when any road for Cameron to take towards negotiating new terms will either become open our blocked off.
We're all still breathlessly awaiting Tim's response - 24 hours and counting.....
Happy enough to actually go and live in Scotland?
Can the No parties continue shooting themselves in their feet at this impressive rate? Here's hoping!
The combination of the UKIP and McBride implosions could not have come at a better time for the Yes campaign.
'Scottish independence: Pro-independence rally to be held in Edinburgh'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-24183083
That Panelbase poll has been discredited - ignore it
Only someone as uber privileged as Rachel Reeves could think £60k isn't seen as rich. She should ask the good people of Leeds, Bradford, Manchester, Liverpool or anywhere north of there. Suspect they will have a very different view. Up here in the Highlands, few senior managers or company directors earn £60k.
Was interested to read that Reeves husband was Gordon Brown's private secretary and speech-writer at one time. Another link into the spider's web!
What you deliberately did not mention was that her £60k comments continued and disclosed that Labour will not increase any taxes on people earning upto £60k because , quite rightly, they are not rich !
But in any case, you are wrong because even if you were right, you forget about dual-income households, and 2 x £30k = £60k.
Someone one on £50k can easily have less disposable income than someone on £30k and live in worse house.
It's a nightmare for policy makers.
MPs' salaries, curiously, are just over £60,000. A happy coincidence no doubt.
Unless it is planning to raise business taxes a fair bit.
In fact both Ladbrokes and Hills have the Tories to win most Euro votes at 7/2 this morning.
The only positive for UKIP out of this is - hopefully - ridding themselves of Bloom. Which they should have done months ago.
I do accept that almost every aspect of Coalition policy, other than the 45p rate, has increased the tax burden on those earning £150K+ and that overall they have contributed the most to deficit reduction.
P3's later than usual (11am) so my pre-qualifying piece will be later too. Unsure if I'll offer a tip at this stage. I was surprised to see the odds on Mercedes top scoring had dropped to 3, perhaps because Lotus look off the pace.
My father who is not interested in politics, and has alway s voted labour if he bothered voting at all, phone me after seeing Farage on breakfast tv and Bloom on the news to say he'd be voting UKIP...
Anecdotes I know
Paddy Power's market prices are currently as follows:
2013 H2 ........ 11/10
2014 H1 ........ 9/2
2014 H2 ........ 11/2
2015 H1 ........ 11/2
2015 H2 ........ 4/1
(or later)
Then again, Labour promised not to increase income tax (10% to 20%) or raise tuition fees (indeed, they had 'legislated against them').
On the spare room subsidy/bedroom tax, Labour will win. On the general question of spending/taxation/borrowing I think the Coalition will prevail.
It's interesting we never ever hear, in the media, from people who had been on waiting lists or in cramped accommodation and who now have a home that fits the size of their family.
I'll be at the UKIP conference today as a non-partisan standholder for my day job - it'll be interesting to get an impression of the mood. Standholders have a very specific focus for party conferences - whether the delegates are encouraged to tour them. Some of the popular conference centres are good in that respect, some are awful. The Glasgow centre used by the LibDems is not great - delegates have a confusing 10 minutes' walk around the complex from the main building to go and look at the stands. (They'll be back there next year, unusually in October AFTER the other parties for logistical referendum-related reasons.) My colleague at the UKIP stand says the building has the same problem - the conference is 4 floors above the stands.
IIRC Brighton is quite good but Birmingham and I think Manchester are hit and miss - it's worth paying a bit more to get a good location, or they'll stick you in an obscure corner on the landing somewhere. In general, delegates should take the trouble to wander round saying hello to stand-holders, who are paying substantially: 22% of LibDem income last year was from the conference!
The rest is nonsense. Why would pensioners gain disproportionately from the (non existent) housing boom? As a proportion of society they have fewer houseowners than their younger peers and they have smaller houses.
They have been massively disproportionately penalised by our interest rate policy which has devastated their investment income and they have not benefitted from the reduction in mortgage rates to anything like the extent of the rest of the population.
They have been massively penalised by the effects of QE on annuity rates. The last few years have been very bad ones to retire unless you work for the state and have a final salary pension. Why else do you think we have record numbers of 65+ still working?
Of more significance are labour's comments on wealth. At last they've found some smart marketing people who understand and can read their focus groups.
The Tories huge achilles heel is that voters believe they are a party of the rich for the rich. The two figures of £60.000 and £150.000 are not random numbers. The £150.000 is a reminder of Osbornes budget. The £60.000 is twice the amount the Tories believe people on welfare should live on.
Unless Ed manages to do another Syria screw up Labour should be up and running again.
In the 14th century (I apologise for this vulgarly modern reference) taxation was temporary and for specific purposes (most usually making war on France). When tax was collected but the reason disappeared (due to truce) the money was given back.
Then taxation became permanent (and much of it frittered away on things for which it was not raised). Now we seem to be divorcing the motives, the means of collection and the expenditure ever more.
Farage is a salesman rather than a manager, and will say so himself. He didn't cover himself in glory yesterday, but how many voters will that influence? UKIP is half-way between being a single issue pressure group, and a party fit for govt. During this 'adolescence' time, we are going to have the odd day when we don't look very grown-up.
Voters at the next Euro elections will ask themselves: do we want more of the EU, or do we want out? and not: who will make the best PM?
http://m.accountingweb.co.uk/article/profession-braces-child-benefit-chaos/535667
NB it is popular among all but selfish affluent parents.
In contrast the outcome of the German election tomorrow will probably have more of an impact on our future status than the 2014 Euros.
The benefits system is a tangled mess. Not sure if it will, but if IDS' single payment scheme comes off that'd be a great simplification.
In this economy, Some people you rely upon for essential services cannot afford to own any car, let alone a Trabbant.
"The Tories huge achilles heel is that voters believe they are a party of the rich for the rich"
For once, I agree with Roger. This view is especially prevalent in the North (and over the border), and it's part of why Labour are dominant here. But they have a weakness too, and Gillian Duffy is a good example.
Farage, for all his second-hand car-dealer image, recognises this, and has stated Ukip intend to target Labour voters. They may not vote for Ukip in droves, but some will sit on their hands.
As someone who earns around ten times what I earn, and has no children to support, I'd like to see exactly how "unselfish" you are.
It was also plain that he was very angry with Bloom for spoiling a well run conference and making UKIP, once again, a target for the haters to get some whacks in.
We shall see how this second day of conference pans out. I think everyone in the UKIP fold will be on their best behaviour.
So as I say I think the Child Benefit Tax Charge should simply be seen as a removal of a benefit rather than a tax in the way we would normally understand it.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Journey-to-Altmortis-ebook/dp/B00COAEOS8/
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Bane-of-Souls-ebook/dp/B008C2KV48/
The question is how can they do this, while not losing too much support in the SE?
Jonathan's 'food banks' will come in the second wave.
I accept that a strong vote for UKIP in 2014 may have a small and indirect effect on the GE in 2015. A UKIP win could make EM promise an in/out referendum on the EU. If that happened, and he became PM, the tory party could then unite behind the 'BOO' campaign. An in/out referendum under a labour govt would be far more likely to produce the result you claim to want: a win for out.
The group who have much more to complain about is the poorest. They have been hit very hard and that's very tough on them.
SO should be telling us who his pension advisor is as well. Last year my modest pension fund was worth less at the end of the period than it was at the start despite the contributions over the year! I am hoping for a better result this year but pension funds have serious deficits to cover from the crash and returns are generally modest.
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/taxcredits/people-advise-others/entitlement-tables/work-and-child/work-pay-childcare.htm
Again I am not sure that is desirable or sustainable.
I'm guessing that poster's PB activity will be as evanescent as the last Scottish Tory that recently popped up (though to be fair to the latter, he was probably a bit creeped out by the scary grooming that kicked in almost immediately).
Earns 60k,
no pension, £6k season ticket, 3 dependants, owns 3 bed terrace with £250k (90%) mortgage
Earns 30k,
pension, owns company, company car, no dependants, owns 4 bed detached outright.