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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the Tories are using the the appointment of the new Home Secretary

The big news of the day has been the appointment by Theresa May of Sajid Javid as the new Home Secretary – the first time a member of the BAME communities has been appointed to one of the main officers of state.

Read the full story here

JosiasJessop

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Mortimer

Second, like Remain...

alex.

Happy with my sleeper bet on Javid at 60-1 for next Tory leader...

tyson

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

Gallowgate

Good stuff from Javid so far. Hope he delivers.

HYUFD

Major of course came from nowhere to become Foreign Secretary then Chancellor then beat favourite Heseltine for the leadership in 1990 and Kinnock in the 1992 general election for a historic 4th Tory term.

Is Boris Heseltine, Corbyn Kinnock, May Thatcher and Javid Major? If so Labour will need another Blair!

dr_spyn

Aspiration, aspiration, aspiration.

another_richard

Is his head at an angle ?

He looks a bit like the Mekon.

Foxy

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

alex.

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I asked this question about six months ago. Has an excellent back story, a sound pre political career, seems a good media performer and hasn’t attracted any obvious negatives in any of his Cabinet roles to date. The main counter answer seemed to be that he was seen as an initial high flyer who hadn’t really lived up to expectations. Which I admit I felt didn’t really cut it when the likes of Boris and Mogg were leading the betting.

another_richard

SJ was born in 1969.

Would a working class kid from Rochdale have had the same opportunities if he had been born a generation later ?

another_richard

alex. said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I asked this question about six months ago. Has an excellent back story, a sound pre political career, seems a good media performer and hasn’t attracted any obvious negatives in any of his Cabinet roles to date. The main counter answer seemed to be that he was seen as an initial high flyer who hadn’t really lived up to expectations. Which I admit I felt didn’t really cut it when the likes of Boris and Mogg were leading the betting.

He was unimpressive during the steel industry problems a couple of years ago.

Philip_Thompson

another_richard said:

SJ was born in 1969.

Would a working class kid from Rochdale have had the same opportunities if he had been born a generation later ?

He doesn't look nearly 50.

The_Apocalypse

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

Big_G_NorthWales

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I think he is in the frame now

The_Apocalypse

alex. said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I asked this question about six months ago. Has an excellent back story, a sound pre political career, seems a good media performer and hasn’t attracted any obvious negatives in any of his Cabinet roles to date. The main counter answer seemed to be that he was seen as an initial high flyer who hadn’t really lived up to expectations. Which I admit I felt didn’t really cut it when the likes of Boris and Mogg were leading the betting.

Well yes, a ‘bit disappointing’ is an odd criticism to make of anyone when JRM, Boris - and quite frankly Andrea Leadsom - have been considered serious candidates for PM. It will be interesting to see how he does in this new role - if he does well, he could even be the favourite.

alex.

The_Apocalypse said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

Somehow I doubt the target of the poster is working class voters from Rochdale...

tyson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I think he is in the frame now

Good

Big_G_NorthWales

The_Apocalypse said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

Give him time - good start in the HOC today against Abbott ( yes I know)

The_Apocalypse

alex. said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

Somehow I doubt the target of the poster is working class voters from Rochdale...

Even so, the point about personal circumstances and what the government does still remain.

another_richard

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

SJ was born in 1969.

Would a working class kid from Rochdale have had the same opportunities if he had been born a generation later ?

He doesn't look nearly 50.

A lot of blokes look younger than they are.

I wonder if changes in lifestyle and work mean some men age slower than the traditional image.

alex.

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I think he is in the frame now

Good

Because deep down you are desperate for a reason to vote Tory....?

Or maybe against Corbyn.

The_Apocalypse

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

Give him time - good start in the HOC today against Abbott ( yes I know)

I have to say, I did notice on the news that he rejected the phrase ‘hostile’. It’s just words at this stage, but I’m really intrigued as to what his approach is going to be - and whether May will let him go with it if it’s different from hers.

brendan16

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

He was a very successful banker but what exactly has he achieved in his ministerial roles. During his time at MHCLG he made a right mess of implementing the 2017 business rates revaluation and Hammond had to step in with £300m to bail him out.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/21/sajid-javid-accused-misleading-mps-business-rate-rises/

I agree he has a great back story - but what exactly has he achieved in government. Although I accept for the current Cabinet it's not a high bar.

SandyRentool

"What does the Conservative party offer a posh kid from the Bullingdon Club?

They make him Prime Minister, or Chancellor of the Exchequer, or Foreign Secretary"

Big_G_NorthWales

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

Give him time - good start in the HOC today against Abbott ( yes I know)

I have to say, I did notice on the news that he rejected the phrase ‘hostile’. It’s just words at this stage, but I’m really intrigued as to what his approach is going to be - and whether May will let him go with it if it’s different from hers.

I think he is in a powerful position and May has other things to do

Philip_Thompson

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

SJ was born in 1969.

Would a working class kid from Rochdale have had the same opportunities if he had been born a generation later ?

He doesn't look nearly 50.

A lot of blokes look younger than they are.

I wonder if changes in lifestyle and work mean some men age slower than the traditional image.

Possibly.

Also for bald men some carry it very differently to others. Hair can be a big give away to age as can baldness but he doesn't look bald it suits him. Not sure why but it does. There's a general political rule of thumb globally that the follically challenged lose elections but I'm not sure if it would work in his case as he doesn't strike me as bald despite being so.

Does that make any sense?

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/991063740119470080

DavidL

brendan16 said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

He was a very successful banker but what exactly has he achieved in his ministerial roles. During his time at MHCLG he made a right mess of implementing the 2017 business rates revaluation and Hammond had to step in with £300m to bail him out.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/21/sajid-javid-accused-misleading-mps-business-rate-rises/

I agree he has a great back story - but what exactly has he achieved in government. Although I accept for the current Cabinet it's not a high bar.

1. Superb condom joke.
2.....

Philip_Thompson

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

Give him time - good start in the HOC today against Abbott ( yes I know)

I have to say, I did notice on the news that he rejected the phrase ‘hostile’. It’s just words at this stage, but I’m really intrigued as to what his approach is going to be - and whether May will let him go with it if it’s different from hers.

Cameron let May get away with it.

If he can move the agenda on then I think she will.

another_richard

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

Give him time - good start in the HOC today against Abbott ( yes I know)

I have to say, I did notice on the news that he rejected the phrase ‘hostile’. It’s just words at this stage, but I’m really intrigued as to what his approach is going to be - and whether May will let him go with it if it’s different from hers.

I think he is in a powerful position and May has other things to do

He needs to start making the Home Office fit for purpose before trying to change any policy.

Philip_Thompson

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

Give him time - good start in the HOC today against Abbott ( yes I know)

I have to say, I did notice on the news that he rejected the phrase ‘hostile’. It’s just words at this stage, but I’m really intrigued as to what his approach is going to be - and whether May will let him go with it if it’s different from hers.

I think he is in a powerful position and May has other things to do

He needs to start making the Home Office fit for purpose before trying to change any policy.

Part of making it fit for purpose can be changing failing policies.

valleyboy

another_richard said:

alex. said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I asked this question about six months ago. Has an excellent back story, a sound pre political career, seems a good media performer and hasn’t attracted any obvious negatives in any of his Cabinet roles to date. The main counter answer seemed to be that he was seen as an initial high flyer who hadn’t really lived up to expectations. Which I admit I felt didn’t really cut it when the likes of Boris and Mogg were leading the betting.

He was unimpressive during the steel industry problems a couple of years ago.

Yep, pretty unpopular in Port Talbot with 1000s of workers facing redundancy he was swanning of to Australia on holidays. He will have to step up several gears to make a fist of the poisoned chalice that is the Home Office. I still think as well it might yet bring down TM.

DavidL

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

SJ was born in 1969.

Would a working class kid from Rochdale have had the same opportunities if he had been born a generation later ?

He doesn't look nearly 50.

A lot of blokes look younger than they are.

I wonder if changes in lifestyle and work mean some men age slower than the traditional image.

Possibly.

Also for bald men some carry it very differently to others. Hair can be a big give away to age as can baldness but he doesn't look bald it suits him. Not sure why but it does. There's a general political rule of thumb globally that the follically challenged lose elections but I'm not sure if it would work in his case as he doesn't strike me as bald despite being so.

Does that make any sense?

Nope. I have seen billiard balls that looked less bald than Sajid.

philiph

alex. said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I asked this question about six months ago. Has an excellent back story, a sound pre political career, seems a good media performer and hasn’t attracted any obvious negatives in any of his Cabinet roles to date. The main counter answer seemed to be that he was seen as an initial high flyer who hadn’t really lived up to expectations. Which I admit I felt didn’t really cut it when the likes of Boris and Mogg were leading the betting.

Maybe the bench marks for BME politicians at the moment are Sajid Javid, Sadiq Khan and Chukka Umunna.

Do the first two have much more appeal than Chuka? He oozes far more political charm and smooth smug self belief, which isn't very appealing. The first two seem more genuine and are getting a great trial run in very senior posts.

The money must now be on SJ or SK to be the first BME PM. I would suggest Chukka is toast.

FrancisUrquhart

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

MaxPB

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

Give him time - good start in the HOC today against Abbott ( yes I know)

I have to say, I did notice on the news that he rejected the phrase ‘hostile’. It’s just words at this stage, but I’m really intrigued as to what his approach is going to be - and whether May will let him go with it if it’s different from hers.

I don't see that she has a choice. You can't bring in someone from the outside and then not listen to him, he will just threaten to resign, May needs Javid a lot more than he needs her.

Philip_Thompson

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

SJ was born in 1969.

Would a working class kid from Rochdale have had the same opportunities if he had been born a generation later ?

He doesn't look nearly 50.

A lot of blokes look younger than they are.

I wonder if changes in lifestyle and work mean some men age slower than the traditional image.

Possibly.

Also for bald men some carry it very differently to others. Hair can be a big give away to age as can baldness but he doesn't look bald it suits him. Not sure why but it does. There's a general political rule of thumb globally that the follically challenged lose elections but I'm not sure if it would work in his case as he doesn't strike me as bald despite being so.

Does that make any sense?

Nope. I have seen billiard balls that looked less bald than Sajid.

I think that's part of the issue though.

You look at Iain Duncan Smith and he looks bald. The fact he's still got tufts of grey hair amongst his baldness just accentuates it.

Javid with such a smooth head just looks like hair doesn't belong there rather than striking as missing hair.

FrancisUrquhart

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

A couple of years ago he was getting a similar build up, potential CoE etc, then he had some really dodgy media outings and quickly got shuffled off to a more minor role.

MaxPB

The_Apocalypse said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

To some degree you are correct, but the poster is aimed at the "aspirational" working classes, those who want better for their kids. The Tory party isn't making any headway with this section of voters under Theresa's policies. Dave did ok with them but we haven't really won them over since Thatcher promised to help them become home owners. Now we need to help their kids get good jobs and become home owners.

RoyalBlue

FrancisUrquhart said:

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

It’s now progressive to think that people should dress according to their ethnic heritage. Keep up!

DavidL

BTW and completely O/T Stormy Daniels is an "adult entertainment" actress. She has an affair with the Donald. She allegedly takes a fairly substantial sum not to talk about it. And she is suing him for defamation?

Only in America.....

another_richard

RoyalBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

It’s now progressive to think that people should dress according to their ethnic heritage. Keep up!

Only some people.

alex.

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

SJ was born in 1969.

Would a working class kid from Rochdale have had the same opportunities if he had been born a generation later ?

He doesn't look nearly 50.

A lot of blokes look younger than they are.

I wonder if changes in lifestyle and work mean some men age slower than the traditional image.

Possibly.

Also for bald men some carry it very differently to others. Hair can be a big give away to age as can baldness but he doesn't look bald it suits him. Not sure why but it does. There's a general political rule of thumb globally that the follically challenged lose elections but I'm not sure if it would work in his case as he doesn't strike me as bald despite being so.

Does that make any sense?

Is it too outrageous to suggest that the difference is skin colour?

FrancisUrquhart

RoyalBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

It’s now progressive to think that people should dress according to their ethnic heritage. Keep up!

I feel for the poor kid. As if being a teenager isn’t hard enough and Should be enjoying having had a lovely night at the prom and now is getting shit from a load of twats on the twitter machine.

Philip_Thompson

alex. said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

SJ was born in 1969.

Would a working class kid from Rochdale have had the same opportunities if he had been born a generation later ?

He doesn't look nearly 50.

A lot of blokes look younger than they are.

I wonder if changes in lifestyle and work mean some men age slower than the traditional image.

Possibly.

Also for bald men some carry it very differently to others. Hair can be a big give away to age as can baldness but he doesn't look bald it suits him. Not sure why but it does. There's a general political rule of thumb globally that the follically challenged lose elections but I'm not sure if it would work in his case as he doesn't strike me as bald despite being so.

Does that make any sense?

Is it too outrageous to suggest that the difference is skin colour?

I think you might be right.

williamglenn

RoyalBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

It’s now progressive to think that people should dress according to their ethnic heritage. Keep up!

There's something very weird about the relationship between the American psyche and 'roots'.

TOPPING

MaxPB said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

Though it does rather contrast with the outcomes for the vast majority of working class kids from Rochdale.

Yes. I think their own personal circumstances will likely play more of a role in who they vote for than a poster. After eight years in power, the Tories will need more than posters to win voters over. They’ll rightly be looking to what the government does, and how they feel it impacts on their lives.

To some degree you are correct, but the poster is aimed at the "aspirational" working classes, those who want better for their kids. The Tory party isn't making any headway with this section of voters under Theresa's policies. Dave did ok with them but we haven't really won them over since Thatcher promised to help them become home owners. Now we need to help their kids get good jobs and become home owners.

The poster is aimed at Lab voters/waverers who want to be reassured that the Cons aren’t as nasty as everyone says they are and are for the little people.

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

A couple of years ago he was getting a similar build up, potential CoE etc, then he had some really dodgy media outings and quickly got shuffled off to a more minor role.

In fairness I think a fair bit of that had to do with the precipitous fall of his patron (Osborne) and having to win back favour with the new regime. By political standards he was pretty loyal.

But he didn't achieve a lot when at Business in terms of "cutting red tape". Pretty much uncle Vince levels of activity. And he hasn't been exactly prominent in building new housing either.
OTOH facing up to Abbott would make most people look good.

FrancisUrquhart

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

A couple of years ago he was getting a similar build up, potential CoE etc, then he had some really dodgy media outings and quickly got shuffled off to a more minor role.

In fairness I think a fair bit of that had to do with the precipitous fall of his patron (Osborne) and having to win back favour with the new regime. By political standards he was pretty loyal.

But he didn't achieve a lot when at Business in terms of "cutting red tape". Pretty much uncle Vince levels of activity. And he hasn't been exactly prominent in building new housing either.
OTOH facing up to Abbott would make most people look good.

I think the downfall of Osborne is certainly was a big part of it, as was backing Brexit (albeit with Jezza levels of enthusiasm).

Foxy

alex. said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

SJ was born in 1969.

Would a working class kid from Rochdale have had the same opportunities if he had been born a generation later ?

He doesn't look nearly 50.

A lot of blokes look younger than they are.

I wonder if changes in lifestyle and work mean some men age slower than the traditional image.

Possibly.

Also for bald men some carry it very differently to others. Hair can be a big give away to age as can baldness but he doesn't look bald it suits him. Not sure why but it does. There's a general political rule of thumb globally that the follically challenged lose elections but I'm not sure if it would work in his case as he doesn't strike me as bald despite being so.

Does that make any sense?

Is it too outrageous to suggest that the difference is skin colour?

It may be part of it. Hard to imagine Chuka with a perm too!

williamglenn

Conservative MP having a breakdown on twitter.
https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/991054798693765121
https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/991065837275635713

Sunil_Prasannan

FrancisUrquhart said:

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

I remember both Cherie and SamCam wearing the Indian sari to Divali parties. But can't remember if it was ever controversial?

brendan16

FrancisUrquhart said:

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

So some young woman from Utah decides to wear a Chinese style dress to her prom and someone on Twitter accuses her of cultural appropriation and it's now world news?

What next - doing Karaoke is also Japanese cultural appropriation?

There are things to worry about in rhe world - and there is a Utah high school prom dress.

hunchman

The_Apocalypse said:

alex. said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I asked this question about six months ago. Has an excellent back story, a sound pre political career, seems a good media performer and hasn’t attracted any obvious negatives in any of his Cabinet roles to date. The main counter answer seemed to be that he was seen as an initial high flyer who hadn’t really lived up to expectations. Which I admit I felt didn’t really cut it when the likes of Boris and Mogg were leading the betting.

Well yes, a ‘bit disappointing’ is an odd criticism to make of anyone when JRM, Boris - and quite frankly Andrea Leadsom - have been considered serious candidates for PM. It will be interesting to see how he does in this new role - if he does well, he could even be the favourite.

Well there is a relationship between the new Home Secretary and JRM if you know where to look.

Sunil_Prasannan

williamglenn said:

Conservative MP having a breakdown on twitter.
https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/991054798693765121
/twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/991065837275635713

The Lords ARE unelected!

AlastairMeeks

FrancisUrquhart said:

RoyalBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

It’s now progressive to think that people should dress according to their ethnic heritage. Keep up!

I feel for the poor kid. As if being a teenager isn’t hard enough and Should be enjoying having had a lovely night at the prom and now is getting shit from a load of twats on the twitter machine.

Goodness knows what Twitter would have made of the Village People.

JamesP

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

Richard_Nabavi

DavidL said:

...

But he didn't achieve a lot when at Business in terms of "cutting red tape". Pretty much uncle Vince levels of activity. And he hasn't been exactly prominent in building new housing either.
....

The first part of that is true, and fair criticism. The second part is unfair, I think he's been quite active - on housebuilding, you can't expect results in less than three or four years at best. At the moment, there's the further complication of Brexit uncertainty on the demand side, and a shortage of skills and even of materials on the supply side.

IMO, shares in housebuilders are screaming value IF you think these two problems are over-stated. I'm uncertain, but tentatively buying.

(This is not investment advice, DYOR, you might lose your shirt etc etc).

rcs1000

hunchman said:

The_Apocalypse said:

alex. said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I asked this question about six months ago. Has an excellent back story, a sound pre political career, seems a good media performer and hasn’t attracted any obvious negatives in any of his Cabinet roles to date. The main counter answer seemed to be that he was seen as an initial high flyer who hadn’t really lived up to expectations. Which I admit I felt didn’t really cut it when the likes of Boris and Mogg were leading the betting.

Well yes, a ‘bit disappointing’ is an odd criticism to make of anyone when JRM, Boris - and quite frankly Andrea Leadsom - have been considered serious candidates for PM. It will be interesting to see how he does in this new role - if he does well, he could even be the favourite.

Well there is a relationship between the new Home Secretary and JRM if you know where to look.

In the West Country?

FrancisUrquhart

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

I remember both Cherie and SamCam wearing the Indian sari to Divali parties. But can't remember if it was ever controversial?

What about the Trudeau family trip to India....oh wait, that was controversial for another reason.

Richard_Nabavi

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

The_Apocalypse said:

alex. said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I asked this question about six months ago. Has an excellent back story, a sound pre political career, seems a good media performer and hasn’t attracted any obvious negatives in any of his Cabinet roles to date. The main counter answer seemed to be that he was seen as an initial high flyer who hadn’t really lived up to expectations. Which I admit I felt didn’t really cut it when the likes of Boris and Mogg were leading the betting.

Well yes, a ‘bit disappointing’ is an odd criticism to make of anyone when JRM, Boris - and quite frankly Andrea Leadsom - have been considered serious candidates for PM. It will be interesting to see how he does in this new role - if he does well, he could even be the favourite.

Well there is a relationship between the new Home Secretary and JRM if you know where to look.

In the West Country?

In the Finchley Road, surely?

FrancisUrquhart

AlastairMeeks said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RoyalBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

It’s now progressive to think that people should dress according to their ethnic heritage. Keep up!

I feel for the poor kid. As if being a teenager isn’t hard enough and Should be enjoying having had a lovely night at the prom and now is getting shit from a load of twats on the twitter machine.

Goodness knows what Twitter would have made of the Village People.

Bill Maher nails it,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugLbotr1RuQ

Richard_Nabavi

Talking of cultural appropriation, it's time that the howling mobs turned their attention to all those chaps from all sorts of exotic places who wear suits.

Y0kel

Javid next Conservative leader? Not sure about that one at all.

FPT. The news out of Israel should have many mirrors held up to it. Bibi is running interference for Trump, undoubtedly. Western countries, however, know all too well that Iran has been stretching the living crap out of its obligations under the Agreement but why rock that boat? There was nothing new today at all.

Israel always takes care of its interests and it is not willing to just accept the Iranians, who control Assad more than he controls them on his own soil, setting up shop on their border. Never mind the PowerPoint, watch the Knesset, watch the convoys and watch the air activity. Netanyahu's generals are not quite as gung-ho as the boss but they will do as necessary.

The_Apocalypse

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

So after the earlier poll by MORI, YouGov still showing the same picture as last week. So one of these pollsters is wrong (or maybe they’re both wrong).

Foxy

Richard_Nabavi said:

Talking of cultural appropriation, it's time that the howling mobs turned their attention to all those chaps from all sorts of exotic places who wear suits.

Be careful or they might want their pajamas and bungalows back!

Richard_Nabavi

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Talking of cultural appropriation, it's time that the howling mobs turned their attention to all those chaps from all sorts of exotic places who wear suits.

Be careful or they might want their pajamas and bungalows back!

They won't want the dumbed-down curries and chow mein, that's for sure.

RoyalBlue

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

I think the Tories will settle for that with 3 days to go until the local elections.

Richard_Nabavi

The_Apocalypse said:

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

So after the earlier poll by MORI, YouGov still showing the same picture as last week. So one of these pollsters is wrong (or maybe they’re both wrong).

The fieldwork dates and comparisons were different, I believe - the latest Ipsos MORI poll was done on the 20th-24th April and was being compared with the 2nd-7th March.

The broad picture hasn't changed much - the two parties remain neck-and-neck, although there has been a small fall-off in Jeremy Corbyn's ratings and a small drop in Labour's position over the last couple of months or so. The Conservatives seem now to be a smidgen ahead, but it's not a very solid lead.

Foxy

Richard_Nabavi said:

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Talking of cultural appropriation, it's time that the howling mobs turned their attention to all those chaps from all sorts of exotic places who wear suits.

Be careful or they might want their pajamas and bungalows back!

They won't want the dumbed-down curries and chow mein, that's for sure.

I was in Orlando for a research conference some years ago and went to this weird place for dinner: The Pub, Orlando. The food was OK, and beer good, but the Waiters and Waitresses in Cokerney t shirts combined with kilts just a little too much. I had my fill of cultural appropriation that night!

https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Restaurant_Review-d2550961?m=19905

kle4

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

It’s now progressive to think that people should dress according to their ethnic heritage. Keep up!

There's something very weird about the relationship between the American psyche and 'roots'.

True enough. That whole kind of story baffles me.

kle4

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/991063740119470080

Well that was quick.

DavidL

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

Did they actually, you know, bother? I can’t recall a survey with exactly the same result for every party.

kle4

JosiasJessop said:

First.

And I agree that it seems a highly effective poster.

It's powerful in its message, but I question the general assumption than any mere poster is capable of being effective. A good poster doesn't save a bad product, nor does a bad poster ruin a good one after all.

Richard_Nabavi

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/991063740119470080

Well that was quick.

Well, perhaps he's learnt from the fate of the previous occupant of the post...

Sunil_Prasannan

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/991063740119470080

Well that was quick.

Where was Major in 1988?

kle4

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/991063740119470080

Well that was quick.

Where was Major in 1988?

I don't know, I was 2 years old.

DavidL

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

...

But he didn't achieve a lot when at Business in terms of "cutting red tape". Pretty much uncle Vince levels of activity. And he hasn't been exactly prominent in building new housing either.
....

The first part of that is true, and fair criticism. The second part is unfair, I think he's been quite active - on housebuilding, you can't expect results in less than three or four years at best. At the moment, there's the further complication of Brexit uncertainty on the demand side, and a shortage of skills and even of materials on the supply side.

IMO, shares in housebuilders are screaming value IF you think these two problems are over-stated. I'm uncertain, but tentatively buying.

(This is not investment advice, DYOR, you might lose your shirt etc etc).

I am not suggesting that we should have thousands of additional homes yet but where is the evidence of planning relaxation, public money for Housing Associations, any kind of profile that suggested that the government had any kind of grip on the problem? He was quite good about the fire but he was not seizing the agenda in the way that Tories need to.

I think investing in housebuilders is quite brave. We have very high multiples of average salary, very slowly increasing wages, low inflation and gradually increasing interest rates. Doesn’t look like an ideal scenario to me.

AndyJS

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

SJ was born in 1969.

Would a working class kid from Rochdale have had the same opportunities if he had been born a generation later ?

He doesn't look nearly 50.

He was born in the same month as Ed Miliband, December 1969.

AnneJGP

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/991063740119470080

Well that was quick.

They're only repeating what they read on PB last night.

Nemtynakht

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

A couple of years ago he was getting a similar build up, potential CoE etc, then he had some really dodgy media outings and quickly got shuffled off to a more minor role.

In fairness I think a fair bit of that had to do with the precipitous fall of his patron (Osborne) and having to win back favour with the new regime. By political standards he was pretty loyal.

But he didn't achieve a lot when at Business in terms of "cutting red tape". Pretty much uncle Vince levels of activity. And he hasn't been exactly prominent in building new housing either.
OTOH facing up to Abbott would make most people look good.

I've always talked him up as a potential Tory leader. He has a great backstory and had been positioned by Osborne as supporter. He was an investment banker and was linked to a fraud on bonuses. Anyone know anything more about it

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3486895/Come-clean-bank-bonus-scheme-Javid-told-Labour-Business-Secretary-accused-showing-contempt-taxpayers-deal-dodge-tax.html

another_richard

DavidL said:

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

Did they actually, you know, bother? I can’t recall a survey with exactly the same result for every party.

Can anyone remember there being a swing to the government a year after a general election ?

Okay its only eleven months and we don't know what the local election results will be but even so things haven't gone according to plan for the government.

For that matter has a government ever had four forced cabinet resignations in a year ?

AndyJS

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

The last YouGov poll before the 2014 local elections was Lab 34%, Con 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, Greens 3%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015

another_richard

AndyJS said:

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

The last YouGov poll before the 2014 local elections was Lab 34%, Con 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, Greens 3%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015

What are the methodolgy changes since then ?

viewcode

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Poor kid...wears a pretty dress to a prom, next she is front and centre in the crosshairs of the twitter mob and on the front page of the bbc website,

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43947959

It’s now progressive to think that people should dress according to their ethnic heritage. Keep up!

There's something very weird about the relationship between the American psyche and 'roots'.

True enough. That whole kind of story baffles me.

In numerous ways the world seems to be going off the rails, and the concept of cultural appropriation is one of them. It is superficially plausible and I understand the arguments, but it is one of those things where the cure would be worse than the disease. Is this young woman really going to be monstered because she wears a a traditional Chinese dress? How would such a rule be judged and how enforced? What about edge cases or proximity? Are there to be gangs of Puritans with tape measures and history books, murmuring "thou shalt not" as they please? Damn, the world is not as nice as it could be...

AndyJS

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

The last YouGov poll before the 2014 local elections was Lab 34%, Con 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, Greens 3%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015

What are the methodolgy changes since then ?

Don't know but they're not very big changes AFAIK. Clearly the Tories are up more than Labour in the polls compared to four years ago.

AndyJS

Local election news: Labour have won the Charles Dickens ward in Portsmouth at the last two local elections in the city. The Labour candidate for the ward on Thursday has defected to become an Independent candidate, although the ballot paper can't be changed at this late stage and therefore a new Labour candidate can't be nominated.

https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/labour-election-candidate-resigns-from-portsmouth-party-after-anti-semitism-row-and-says-politics-is-poison-1-8478116

justin124

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

Did they actually, you know, bother? I can’t recall a survey with exactly the same result for every party.

Can anyone remember there being a swing to the government a year after a general election ?

Okay its only eleven months and we don't know what the local election results will be but even so things haven't gone according to plan for the government.

For that matter has a government ever had four forced cabinet resignations in a year ?

Yes - 1960/1961 Macmillan's Tories made gains from Labour at the Local Elections. Labour won in 1964.

surby

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

Are we sure they didn't release the wrong poll ?

surby

another_richard said:

alex. said:

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

I asked this question about six months ago. Has an excellent back story, a sound pre political career, seems a good media performer and hasn’t attracted any obvious negatives in any of his Cabinet roles to date. The main counter answer seemed to be that he was seen as an initial high flyer who hadn’t really lived up to expectations. Which I admit I felt didn’t really cut it when the likes of Boris and Mogg were leading the betting.

He was unimpressive during the steel industry problems a couple of years ago.

He has been unimpressive anywhere. Period.

I really wonder what Kwasi has done wrong.

Pulpstar

The_Apocalypse said:

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

So after the earlier poll by MORI, YouGov still showing the same picture as last week. So one of these pollsters is wrong (or maybe they’re both wrong).

The Mori PM approval is an important number. May seems to have pulled it back to the high 30s generally which, given the high two party vote share would lead to roughly level pegging VI or so.

But Corbyn's ratings have sharply reversed from back just after the GE. If the Tories were to chose the right man or woman to succeed May, they could yet crucify Labour at the next GE.

Elliot

Pulpstar said:

The_Apocalypse said:

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

So after the earlier poll by MORI, YouGov still showing the same picture as last week. So one of these pollsters is wrong (or maybe they’re both wrong).

The Mori PM approval is an important number. May seems to have pulled it back to the high 30s generally which, given the high two party vote share would lead to roughly level pegging VI or so.

But Corbyn's ratings have sharply reversed from back just after the GE. If the Tories were to chose the right man or woman to succeed May, they could yet crucify Labour at the next GE.

A veteran like Tugendhat, Mercer or Mordaunt would really bring the contrast home.

surby

I notice in the previous thread Mike made it a point that only a third of Labour voters were satisfied with Corbyn.

May's satisfaction rating amongst Tory voters is only 38%. Not that different.

archer101au

tyson said:

Sajid Javid....as I said earlier,. he is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head....I don't understand why he has never been mentioned as a runner and rider in the leadership debate.....

You are making the mistake of equating media image with talent. So far, Javid has not shown that he has any particular political philosophy other than ambition. His big chance came at the EU Ref when, despite clearly being a leaver, he supported Remain because he thought they would win and it would be better for his career.

People don't want media performers any more - they are looking for politicians with genuine convictions. Which is why JRM is clear favourite amongst Con members.

Javid may be able to get into the frame IF he can show he really believes in anything, but I am not holding my breath....

williamglenn

archer101au said:

His big chance came at the EU Ref when, despite clearly being a leaver, he supported Remain because he thought they would win and it would be better for his career.

Perhaps it was the reverse? Maybe he was never a leaver but thought pretending to be would be good for his career. After all, that's the more common pretence for a Tory politician.

RobD

AnneJGP said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/991063740119470080

Well that was quick.

They're only repeating what they read on PB last night.

Implying Top Tories aren't on PB....

rcs1000

williamglenn said:

archer101au said:

His big chance came at the EU Ref when, despite clearly being a leaver, he supported Remain because he thought they would win and it would be better for his career.

Perhaps it was the reverse? Maybe he was never a leaver but thought pretending to be would be good for his career. After all, that's the more common pretence for a Tory politician.

I know of one Conservative MP that was fearsomely anti-EU to his Association Chairman, but whose views were - how to put this - more nuanced in private.

CarlottaVance

What Mueller wants to ask Trump:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/30/us/politics/questions-mueller-wants-to-ask-trump-russia.html

CarlottaVance

JamesP said:

New YouGov Poll: 24th-25th April

CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/991066535019057152

SCOTTISH SUBSAMPLE ALERT KLAXON

Con: 31
Lab: 22
SNP: 35

On a more serious note....

Best PM by 2017 Vote - among own voters (current VI)

May: 84 (93)
Corbyn: 58 (73)

And among Tory voters the most important issues are:

#1 Brexit (70)
#2 Immigration (43)
#3 = Health (34), Economy (33) Defence (33)

While Labour voters have very different concerns - apart from Brexit:
#1 Brexit (54)
#2 Health (51)
#3 Housing (30)