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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.

    The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.

    Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.

    The issue with Windrush is not just the policy but the extent to which May looks to have thrown Rudd under a bus. That kind of disloyalty - after the way Rudd served her in the general election - will not go down well.

    I've never thought that May could serve to 2022. For the first time, I can see her going this year now.
    It was Rudd who decided to resign, May did not sack her and was indeed reluctant to see her go
    You're having a laugh right ?

    May's left her out hanging to dry, used her as a human shield for policies enacted when she was at HO and finally chucked her under the bus when it all got too hot to handle
    As I said it was Rudd who decided to resign not May who sacked her
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,489
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.

    The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.

    Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.

    The issue with Windrush is not just the policy but the extent to which May looks to have thrown Rudd under a bus. That kind of disloyalty - after the way Rudd served her in the general election - will not go down well.

    I've never thought that May could serve to 2022. For the first time, I can see her going this year now.
    It was Rudd who decided to resign, May did not sack her and was indeed reluctant to see her go
    You're having a laugh right ?

    May's left her out hanging to dry, used her as a human shield for policies enacted when she was at HO and finally chucked her under the bus when it all got too hot to handle
    The only problem with the last part of that is that Rudd going makes things a whole lot worse for May.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nunuone said:

    Anna Soubry welcomes her friemd Amber to the back benches

    Brexit in BINO beckons

    Rest in RIP Brexit....
    PIN number
    River Avon
    HIV virus
    program code?
  • Nah, she was always on Team Osborne.

    She was his former PPS.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Given that one cabinet minister off the record told the BBC the other day that there wasn't much sympathy for Rudd, you could look to someone around the cabinet table for leaking information. I'd not rule out the civil service, however.

    I think though, illegal/non productive immigration issue is one where a substantive slice of the public feels the country needs to get a grip of things. Therefore there needs to be care taken that whether this situation somehow changes voters views either way. I'm not sure how much it will. Thus it might be an idea for the government to double down on the general issue.

    Meanwhile someone, probably the Israelis, have yet again flattened some Iranian & Syrian facilities this evening. If it is the Israelis, no one seems to see them coming and no one seems able or willing to stop them. Strange that.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,489
    Foxy said:

    I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.

    The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.

    Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.

    The issue with Windrush is not just the policy but the extent to which May looks to have thrown Rudd under a bus. That kind of disloyalty - after the way Rudd served her in the general election - will not go down well.

    I've never thought that May could serve to 2022. For the first time, I can see her going this year now.
    I think the same. While I dont particularly like Rudds politics, I do like her loyalty and devotion to duty. She stood in well at the debates at no notice. I do not like to see anyone lose her job.

    The Windrush focus will now move on to May, and can she survive it? I think it will be quite damaging to her.
    Rudd also stood up and urged her Cabinet mates to also stand up and clap to give May time to recover from a coughing fit during the last tory conference speech. This is the 'human' bit i guess that Osborne is tweeting about.

    Angry people on benches: Sourby, Morgan, Rudd.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    viewcode said:

    nunuone said:

    Anna Soubry welcomes her friemd Amber to the back benches

    Brexit in BINO beckons

    Rest in RIP Brexit....
    PIN number
    ?
  • nunuone said:

    viewcode said:

    nunuone said:

    Anna Soubry welcomes her friemd Amber to the back benches

    Brexit in BINO beckons

    Rest in RIP Brexit....
    PIN number
    ?
    The first rule of tautology club is the first rule of tautology club.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    Tom @_tom_burke_

    Amber Rudd has resigned on 29 April, which is shortly before May
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    I'm watching the 2015 general election on youtube....imagine all of this would not be happening if the Tories failed to win a majority....

    How is it even the exit poll underestimated the tories by 20 seats, even though it did much better then the polls? Are Tories just more er....conservative in nature?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    The visuals will be terrible tomorrow if the forecast biblical storm does hit London -- reporters and the new Home Secretary outside a dark, rain-lashed Number 10. It might be better if the announcement were made overnight (preferably before midnight so we can go to bed).
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2018
    Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!

    40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.

    Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    nunuone said:

    I'm watching the 2015 general election on youtube....imagine all of this would not be happening if the Tories failed to win a majority....

    How is it even the exit poll underestimated the tories by 20 seats, even though it did much better then the polls? Are Tories just more er....conservative in nature?

    Did you not catch it first time around? :wink:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,489

    The visuals will be terrible tomorrow if the forecast biblical storm does hit London -- reporters and the new Home Secretary outside a dark, rain-lashed Number 10. It might be better if the announcement were made overnight (preferably before midnight so we can go to bed).

    If it is the normal May reshuffle, even if limited, it will take all day tomorrow before Williamson persuades her that he is the man for the job :smiley:
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    nunuone said:

    viewcode said:

    nunuone said:

    Anna Soubry welcomes her friemd Amber to the back benches

    Brexit in BINO beckons

    Rest in RIP Brexit....
    PIN number
    ?
    The first rule of tautology club is the first rule of tautology club.
    I see.....
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Well George, you could always come back - and make it a lot less human.....
    If I was a Tory,that dick head should be ashamed of himself, trying to bring down his own conservative government.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    brendan16 said:

    Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!

    40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.

    Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.

    I think George is right. I've always thought Rudd was the acceptable face of the Tory Party and lets be honest there aren't too many of them
  • Well George, you could always come back - and make it a lot less human.....
    If I was a Tory,that dick head should be ashamed of himself, trying to bring down his own conservative government.
    When did he try to bring down his own conservative government?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Makes it sound like being a 'fully paid up member of the human race' is short supply in Tory circles.

    Oh...
  • brendan16 said:

    Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!

    40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.

    Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.

    I'll put you down as a deficit denier then.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    The visuals will be terrible tomorrow if the forecast biblical storm does hit London -- reporters and the new Home Secretary outside a dark, rain-lashed Number 10. It might be better if the announcement were made overnight (preferably before midnight so we can go to bed).

    If it is the normal May reshuffle, even if limited, it will take all day tomorrow before Williamson persuades her that he is the man for the job :smiley:
    After Hunt refuses to move.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,346

    nunuone said:

    viewcode said:

    nunuone said:

    Anna Soubry welcomes her friemd Amber to the back benches

    Brexit in BINO beckons

    Rest in RIP Brexit....
    PIN number
    ?
    The first rule of tautology club is the first rule of tautology club.
    Such a tautological tautology.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Roger said:

    brendan16 said:

    Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!

    40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.

    Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.

    I think George is right. I've always thought Rudd was the acceptable face of the Tory Party and lets be honest there aren't too many of them
    I love when lefty's say "this tory was more acceptabel".....they never say that at the time!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Well George, you could always come back - and make it a lot less human.....
    If I was a Tory,that dick head should be ashamed of himself, trying to bring down his own conservative government.
    When did he try to bring down his own conservative government?
    Do you see the standard headlines nearly every day,he's on a vendetta.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,546
    On the prescience of Ms Abbott:

    https://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/986685449585512448?s=19

    May in the frame now...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    nunuone said:

    viewcode said:

    nunuone said:

    Anna Soubry welcomes her friemd Amber to the back benches

    Brexit in BINO beckons

    Rest in RIP Brexit....
    PIN number
    ?
    The first rule of tautology club is the first rule of tautology club.
    Such a tautological tautology.
    You can say that again!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,489

    Makes it sound like being a 'fully paid up member of the human race' is short supply in Tory circles.

    Oh...
    "significant contribution"

    Sounds like voting with Sourby and co to me...
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2018

    brendan16 said:

    Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!

    40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.

    Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.

    I'll put you down as a deficit denier then.
    No - there is a choice of what you cut and what you bailout! His mates did very well - by contrast 200,000 frail elderly people in England lost their social care provision from their local council. But bailouts and schemes galore for his mates!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    nunuone said:

    Roger said:

    brendan16 said:

    Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!

    40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.

    Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.

    I think George is right. I've always thought Rudd was the acceptable face of the Tory Party and lets be honest there aren't too many of them
    I love when lefty's say "this tory was more acceptabel".....they never say that at the time!
    The acceptable face of the Toryism is post-resignation Toryism :smile:
  • Well George, you could always come back - and make it a lot less human.....
    If I was a Tory,that dick head should be ashamed of himself, trying to bring down his own conservative government.
    When did he try to bring down his own conservative government?
    Do you see the standard headlines nearly every day,he's on a vendetta.
    Nah.

    Plus I'm not going to take lectures from a traitor like you who is prepared to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Foxy said:

    On the prescience of Ms Abbott:

    https://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/986685449585512448?s=19

    May in the frame now...

    Push it to far and May will be getting sympathy from the general public.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Well George, you could always come back - and make it a lot less human.....
    If I was a Tory,that dick head should be ashamed of himself, trying to bring down his own conservative government.
    When did he try to bring down his own conservative government?
    Do you see the standard headlines nearly every day,he's on a vendetta.
    Nah.

    Plus I'm not going to take lectures from a traitor like you who is prepared to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister.
    Lol
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Foxy said:

    On the prescience of Ms Abbott:

    https://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/986685449585512448?s=19

    May in the frame now...

    I'm no Roger but surely that video could use a "Labour" between the PM and the party's slogan.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Don't confuse incompetence with much needed immigration control. The latter is needed.

    The liberal media shouldn't think the public attitude has changed on this, it hasn't, majority still want to reduce inward migration.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    If the country was left to people like Richards, we wouldn't have no borders and we wouldn't deport no one.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    If the country was left to people like Richards, we wouldn't have no borders and we wouldn't deport no one.
    so we would have borders and deport some....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    Who's most likely to replace her?

    Sajid Javid.

    I reckon Alastair made a good case for McVey and Lidington.

    I think Karen Bradley might be a contender.
    I think Lidington is a strong bet, too. And Bradley.
    Karen Bradley is now 4/1 second favourite with Ladbrokes. James Cleverly has been introduced at 33/1.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to say whether this resignation will help or hinder the Tories on Thursday.

    Lib Dems should do well - electors likely to say a plague on both your houses
    All eyes on Sutton, Kingston, Richmond and Watford.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,489

    If the country was left to people like Richards, we wouldn't have no borders and we wouldn't deport no one.
    The target was ludicrous. The tens of thousands! And that included students who are here (and pay big time) for 3 or 4 years.

    Not remotely deliverable.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,316
    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!

    40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.

    Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.

    I'll put you down as a deficit denier then.
    No - there is a choice of what you cut and what you bailout! His mates did very well - by contrast 200,000 frail elderly people in England lost their social care provision from their local council. But bailouts and schemes galore for his mates!
    You do realise that the government is currently making a profit from the various bailout schemes. RBS is set to wipe all that out, but then that was Gordon Brown bailing out Scotland's economy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,489
    MaxPB said:

    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!

    40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.

    Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.

    I'll put you down as a deficit denier then.
    No - there is a choice of what you cut and what you bailout! His mates did very well - by contrast 200,000 frail elderly people in England lost their social care provision from their local council. But bailouts and schemes galore for his mates!
    You do realise that the government is currently making a profit from the various bailout schemes. RBS is set to wipe all that out, but then that was Gordon Brown bailing out Scotland's economy.
    One can argue that Brown should not have bailed out the banks, but none of us know what would have happened if he hadn't. Probably: no cash at ATMs on Monday morning. Panic withdrawals. Bank runs. Business failures. Depression? Who knows?

    And who would like to have had to make that decision?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.

    The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.

    Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.

    The issue with Windrush is not just the policy but the extent to which May looks to have thrown Rudd under a bus. That kind of disloyalty - after the way Rudd served her in the general election - will not go down well.

    I've never thought that May could serve to 2022. For the first time, I can see her going this year now.
    I agree it looks like that, but it's very odd - if you want somone to be your human shield, you surely try not to kill them yourself? But the steady stream of inside leaks that ultimately did for Rudd do seem to have come from high up.

    The thing is, this Government seems generally shambolic. We rather forgot that for a while with the Syria flourish and the appearance of an outline Brexit deal, but essentially most of them don't know what they're doing or why they're doing it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,546

    If the country was left to people like Richards, we wouldn't have no borders and we wouldn't deport no one.
    The whole point of the Windrush scandal is the punishment and deportation of legal, not illegal, migrants.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Incidentally, while Abbott has shown the "inexperienced frontbench fails to score" piece earlier this week to be wrong, the real winner is the Guardian, without whose relentless exposes we'd be little the wiser about any of this,
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    But the steady stream of inside leaks that ultimately did for Rudd do seem to have come from high up.

    What makes you say that?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited April 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Why would anyone want to be HS? It strikes me as the mother of all hospital passes at the best of times. But now, well, you’d be forever sorting out the messes Mrs May left behind.......

    Not always the case though. Roy Jenkins did very well out of the Home Office in the 1960s - and Jim Callaghan effectively restored his position in Government after ceasing to be Chancellor. A decade later Merlyn Rees performed ok in the the same office.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Incidentally, while Abbott has shown the "inexperienced frontbench fails to score" piece earlier this week to be wrong, the real winner is the Guardian, without whose relentless exposes we'd be little the wiser about any of this,

    +1.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    When the south was dominated by the Democrats....they held won elections there long after 1968.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsCo/status/989215514084892673
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Foxy said:

    I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.

    The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.

    Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.

    June election anyone? or October?
    Earliest election date now would be June 14th.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,847
    edited April 2018
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rudd may have gone over the potential misleading of Parliament but for the average voter the fact the government has targets for deporting illegal migrants is probably a good thing in their view

    But I doubt the public are happy about deporting legal ones. Even xenophobic Brexiteers
    Hannah Arendt said morality is the choices that you make so that you can be friends with yourself. The voters wanted immigration controlled but didn't want to be presented with the consequences. Brexit will go the same way...
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    MaxPB said:

    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!

    40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.

    Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.

    I'll put you down as a deficit denier then.
    No - there is a choice of what you cut and what you bailout! His mates did very well - by contrast 200,000 frail elderly people in England lost their social care provision from their local council. But bailouts and schemes galore for his mates!
    You do realise that the government is currently making a profit from the various bailout schemes. RBS is set to wipe all that out, but then that was Gordon Brown bailing out Scotland's economy.
    I am specifically referring to help to buy as an example - the bank bailout occurred two years before he came into office. Helping first time buyers pay up to 40 per cent more than they would have done for a new build compared to 2012 is great news for developers but perhaps less so for those first time buyers. Some of the CEO and directors of the major housing developers have been getting tens of millions in bonuses on the back of the scheme - while loading massive debts on those who bought.

    Osborne and his family did very well out of his time in office with the debt fuelled housing boom he created and changes in taxation.

    What may show a profit now may not always do so - because recessions happen as we saw in 2008 and will do again.

    PS Ever wondered why so many young people hate the Tories?, Osborne has destroyed their future core vote - renters don't tend to vote Tory!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    May should follow Rudd out the door. This was a mess entirely of her making. She was the author of the hostile environment not Rudd.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Flashback to 9th December 2006 when Amber Rudd was first selected for Hastings & Rye:

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2006/12/amber_rudd_sele.html
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    On a side issue, Vince Cable has come out very badly from this; he was quoted earlier today as saying that he didn't see why Rudd had to go. It won't register with the general public, but Lib Dem members are getting very worried about Cable.

    If there were a market on "next new major party leader", my money would be on Layla Moran. (Where "major" includes the Lib Dems and excludes UKIP.)
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    Oh, and I'm not convinced that Rudd will necessarily line up behind the Soubryites on the customs union et al. Yes, personally I hope she will, but it seems a little early for her name to be added to the parliamentary arithmetic before she's spoken a word as a backbencher.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.

    The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.

    Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.

    The issue with Windrush is not just the policy but the extent to which May looks to have thrown Rudd under a bus. That kind of disloyalty - after the way Rudd served her in the general election - will not go down well.

    I've never thought that May could serve to 2022. For the first time, I can see her going this year now.
    I agree it looks like that, but it's very odd - if you want somone to be your human shield, you surely try not to kill them yourself? But the steady stream of inside leaks that ultimately did for Rudd do seem to have come from high up.

    The thing is, this Government seems generally shambolic. We rather forgot that for a while with the Syria flourish and the appearance of an outline Brexit deal, but essentially most of them don't know what they're doing or why they're doing it.
    You could say that about the labour front bench.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited April 2018
    nunuone said:

    Don't confuse incompetence with much needed immigration control. The latter is needed.

    The liberal media shouldn't think the public attitude has changed on this, it hasn't, majority still want to reduce inward migration.
    Thankfully the public don’t get to set stupid, counter-productive immigration targets
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2018
    This is a dangerous moment for the government, particularly if the local election results are very bad. Losing Westminster would be disastrous for example.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Roger said:

    brendan16 said:

    Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!

    40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.

    Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.

    I think George is right. I've always thought Rudd was the acceptable face of the Tory Party and lets be honest there aren't too many of them
    That comment shows your total ignorance of amber rudd's business career and the hurt that she caused so many investors Woger. But I wouldn't expect you to know anything of that!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Oh, and I'm not convinced that Rudd will necessarily line up behind the Soubryites on the customs union et al. Yes, personally I hope she will, but it seems a little early for her name to be added to the parliamentary arithmetic before she's spoken a word as a backbencher.

    She should be worried about what she did in the past. She won't have a rosy future with monticello and many other failed ventures brought into public knowledge and where it leads.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Yorkcity said:

    Foxy said:

    I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.

    The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.

    Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.

    June election anyone? or October?
    Cannot see June - or indeed October - the conservatives will not open the door to Corbyn
    If she agrees to a customs union and some free movement arrangement.Many will take their chances.
    Labour's version of a custom union with them in power is the stuff of nightmares. Tories may be mad, but not totally insane.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    May should follow Rudd out the door. This was a mess entirely of her making. She was the author of the hostile environment not Rudd.

    And be replaced by?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812

    May should follow Rudd out the door. This was a mess entirely of her making. She was the author of the hostile environment not Rudd.

    And be replaced by?
    Ken Clarke.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    May should follow Rudd out the door. This was a mess entirely of her making. She was the author of the hostile environment not Rudd.

    And be replaced by?
    Ken Clarke.
    Brave......
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,855
    Y0kel said:

    I think though, illegal/non productive immigration issue is one where a substantive slice of the public feels the country needs to get a grip of things. Therefore there needs to be care taken that whether this situation somehow changes voters views either way. I'm not sure how much it will. Thus it might be an idea for the government to double down on the general issue.

    There are - according this LSE report from 2009 - between 400,000 and 850,000 illegal immigrants in the UK, and another 150,000 people of questionable status. It is reasonable to assume that the number will have grown in the last decade.

    The majority of these people (as is almost always the case with illegal immigrants around the word) have come to the UK on one type of visa, and have overstayed, with a small minority having come via people smugglers and the like.

    What staggers me is that the number of illegal immigrants (once you include 'questionable status') is equivalent to ten years net EU migration.

    As you say, this is one area where government has done a particularly poor job.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,855
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to say whether this resignation will help or hinder the Tories on Thursday.

    Lib Dems should do well - electors likely to say a plague on both your houses
    All eyes on Sutton, Kingston, Richmond and Watford.
    My guess is that they'll win Richmond fairly easily, considering there is as much of Twickenham constituency as Richmond Park. (Combine the two and the LibDems were 10,000 vote aheads of the Conservatives.)

    Kingston is likely to be a harder ask: it's not as Remain-y, and the bits of Richmond Park that are in the council area are solidly Conservative.

    In Sutton, the LibDems actually gained seats in 2014 (there aren't many places that was true), and they have 45 seats to the Conservatives 9. For that reason I can't see them losing it. On the other hand, I'd be surprised if they increased their majority there.

    Watford I know nothing of.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,855
    edited April 2018
    For those who want the scoop on Amber Rudd's business career, the Guardian has the details: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/amber-rudd-monticello-ill-fated-step-complicated-career-bahamas-leaks
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    May should follow Rudd out the door. This was a mess entirely of her making. She was the author of the hostile environment not Rudd.

    And be replaced by?
    I'd rather Michael Gove or even Boris Johnson than May.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Y0kel said:

    I think though, illegal/non productive immigration issue is one where a substantive slice of the public feels the country needs to get a grip of things. Therefore there needs to be care taken that whether this situation somehow changes voters views either way. I'm not sure how much it will. Thus it might be an idea for the government to double down on the general issue.

    There are - according this LSE report from 2009 - between 400,000 and 850,000 illegal immigrants in the UK, and another 150,000 people of questionable status. It is reasonable to assume that the number will have grown in the last decade.

    The majority of these people (as is almost always the case with illegal immigrants around the word) have come to the UK on one type of visa, and have overstayed, with a small minority having come via people smugglers and the like.

    What staggers me is that the number of illegal immigrants (once you include 'questionable status') is equivalent to ten years net EU migration.

    As you say, this is one area where government has done a particularly poor job.
    Net EU migration is 40-85k per year? That doesn't sound right.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,855
    edited April 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    Y0kel said:

    I think though, illegal/non productive immigration issue is one where a substantive slice of the public feels the country needs to get a grip of things. Therefore there needs to be care taken that whether this situation somehow changes voters views either way. I'm not sure how much it will. Thus it might be an idea for the government to double down on the general issue.

    There are - according this LSE report from 2009 - between 400,000 and 850,000 illegal immigrants in the UK, and another 150,000 people of questionable status. It is reasonable to assume that the number will have grown in the last decade.

    The majority of these people (as is almost always the case with illegal immigrants around the word) have come to the UK on one type of visa, and have overstayed, with a small minority having come via people smugglers and the like.

    What staggers me is that the number of illegal immigrants (once you include 'questionable status') is equivalent to ten years net EU migration.

    As you say, this is one area where government has done a particularly poor job.
    Net EU migration is 40-85k per year? That doesn't sound right.
    The latest number (for the 12 months to September 2017) was 90,000, against 210,000 from non-EU. See: https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics

    (And I was adding the 150,000 people of 'questionable status' to bring the high end of the illegal immigration range up to c. 1m.)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    May should follow Rudd out the door. This was a mess entirely of her making. She was the author of the hostile environment not Rudd.

    And be replaced by?
    I'd rather Michael Gove or even Boris Johnson than May.
    A view not shared by voters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    rcs1000 said:

    For those who want the scoop on Amber Rudd's business career, the Guardian has the details: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/amber-rudd-monticello-ill-fated-step-complicated-career-bahamas-leaks

    Thanks - not quite as lurid as some would have us believe....

    Another Russian poisoning?

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/bp-chief-executive-bob-dudley-poisoned-in-russian-plot-20180430-p4zccy.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,855

    rcs1000 said:

    For those who want the scoop on Amber Rudd's business career, the Guardian has the details: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/amber-rudd-monticello-ill-fated-step-complicated-career-bahamas-leaks

    Thanks - not quite as lurid as some would have us believe....
    While I'm not big on the Guardian's politics, it is pretty much the only broadsheet doing really decent reporting these days.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,855
    edited April 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    For those who want the scoop on Amber Rudd's business career, the Guardian has the details: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/amber-rudd-monticello-ill-fated-step-complicated-career-bahamas-leaks

    Thanks - not quite as lurid as some would have us believe....
    Also, most of the allegations seem to actually pertain to her father. Her real crime seems to have been the investor relations person at one of a million "dot com" incubators around the year 2000.

    And for humour value, I ran Monticello through the Companies House website and found a distinct lack of references to Finchley Road.
  • AndyJS said:

    This is a dangerous moment for the government, particularly if the local election results are very bad. Losing Westminster would be disastrous for example.

    Since I suggested Laddies' 10/1 odds against a 2018 GE just one week ago, they have trimmed their odds to just 6/1 and that's probably before taking account of Amber Rudd's resignation at approx 10pm last night. Betfred currently go 7/1.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For those who want the scoop on Amber Rudd's business career, the Guardian has the details: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/amber-rudd-monticello-ill-fated-step-complicated-career-bahamas-leaks

    Thanks - not quite as lurid as some would have us believe....
    And for humour value, I ran Monticello through the Companies House website and found a distinct lack of references to Finchley Road.
    Ah....but did you check Area 51.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Another one who's quite amusing when he's not writing about you know what...

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/990711597256642560
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    When good people compromise their principles and beliefs for power they all too often end up like Amber Rudd. She implemented a policy created by Theresa May that deliberately viewed immigrants as not worthy of decent, humane treatment, and which saw certain kinds of British citizen as expendable - all driven to get positive headlines in right wing newspapers. On a personal level, she has had a horrible few years. I feel very sorry for her.

    For May, this is a thoroughly-deserved headache. She has lost her human should, the backbenches gain another pro-Customs Union MP and she has to find a way of maintaining the cabinet’s Leave/Remain balance. It’s going to be tough.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For those who want the scoop on Amber Rudd's business career, the Guardian has the details: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/amber-rudd-monticello-ill-fated-step-complicated-career-bahamas-leaks

    Thanks - not quite as lurid as some would have us believe....
    Also, most of the allegations seem to actually pertain to her father. Her real crime seems to have been the investor relations person at one of a million "dot com" incubators around the year 2000.

    And for humour value, I ran Monticello through the Companies House website and found a distinct lack of references to Finchley Road.
    I thought you could do better quality research than that Robert. You've not even scratched the surface with the above.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,329

    Another one who's quite amusing when he's not writing about you know what...

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/990711597256642560

    I think Paul Mason demonstrates that we are Peak Conspiraloon.
  • May should follow Rudd out the door. This was a mess entirely of her making. She was the author of the hostile environment not Rudd.

    And be replaced by?
    Ken Clarke.
    Good taste...
This discussion has been closed.