Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
Still, I can see the appeal. Anything the US can do, we can surely do better, and if they can elect Trump as President, then the only way to outdo them in the insanity stakes is to elect Jeremy Corbyn as PM, John McDonnell as Chancellor, and (our Trump card) Diane Abbott as Home Sec, responsible for security in the UK.
I saw this little summary on Trump associates earlier.
Trump former campaign chairman: indicted Trump WH national security adviser: pleads guilty Trump former deputy campaign chairman: pleads guilty Trump campaign foreign policy adviser: pleads guilty Trump personal lawyer and close confidant: under criminal investigation
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
The pro-Con seats are a mix of ex-mining / industrial and rural Scotland plus Wyre Forest which had the Independent MP. Chesterfield had a LibDem MP who would have got lots of tactical votes from natural Conservatives.
The anti-Con seats tend to those with heavy demographic change or where natural Conservative voters have switched tactically to the LibDems. Hove has become like Brighton and Wallasey like Liverpool.
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
NW Leics is much the same, with lots of new housing and industrial units on the old coalfield. Trending Tory.
Trump self-declares as a "germophobe" so he couldn't possibly be associated with any suggestion he could go anywhere near urine,especially in Moscow,with sex-workers.
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
NW Leics is much the same, with lots of new housing and industrial units on the old coalfield. Trending Tory.
NW Leics was +3.6 in 2005, +8.45 in 2010, +12.60 in 2015 and +15.80 in 2017 so yes, very much trending Tory.
Trump self-declares as a "germophobe" so he couldn't possibly be associated with any suggestion he could go anywhere near urine,especially in Moscow,with sex-workers.
He may be a germophobe but politically he's a virus.
So as an LD, and past supporter of the last Coalition, would be most happy with Jezza as a minority government, kept on a short leash by a post Cable LD leader.
I take the opposite view myself. As a Lib Dem I'd be utterly horrified if my party did anything at all to prop up a Corbyn government. The man is a monster, frankly.
Support for a Tory government would be unwise, and a majority LD government seems some way off.
I am not suggesting Coalition, or even Confidence and Supply, but could see a LD party supporting some minority Lab gov legislation.
The Lib Dems would lose my vote if there was any chance of them propping up a Corbyn government.
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
NW Leics is much the same, with lots of new housing and industrial units on the old coalfield. Trending Tory.
NW Leics was +3.6 in 2005, +8.45 in 2010, +12.60 in 2015 and +15.80 in 2017 so yes, very much trending Tory.
The only marginal of the 10 Leics seats is Loughborough, which still is a bellwether.
Trump self-declares as a "germophobe" so he couldn't possibly be associated with any suggestion he could go anywhere near urine,especially in Moscow,with sex-workers.
Urine is normally sterile so that excuse won't wash.
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
NW Leics is much the same, with lots of new housing and industrial units on the old coalfield. Trending Tory.
NW Leics was +3.6 in 2005, +8.45 in 2010, +12.60 in 2015 and +15.80 in 2017 so yes, very much trending Tory.
The only marginal of the 10 Leics seats is Loughborough, which still is a bellwether.
Could Labour please make a special effort there next time? The gain to public life would be considerable if they could take it.
So as an LD, and past supporter of the last Coalition, would be most happy with Jezza as a minority government, kept on a short leash by a post Cable LD leader.
I take the opposite view myself. As a Lib Dem I'd be utterly horrified if my party did anything at all to prop up a Corbyn government. The man is a monster, frankly.
Support for a Tory government would be unwise, and a majority LD government seems some way off.
I am not suggesting Coalition, or even Confidence and Supply, but could see a LD party supporting some minority Lab gov legislation.
The Lib Dems would lose my vote if there was any chance of them propping up a Corbyn government.
They are not going to be propping up a Tory one.
In practice any such NoC outcome would lead to a second election.
All theoretical though. I think it quite likely that none of the parties will have the current leader at the next General Election.
Trump self-declares as a "germophobe" so he couldn't possibly be associated with any suggestion he could go anywhere near urine,especially in Moscow,with sex-workers.
Urine is normally sterile so that excuse won't wash.
Maybe that explanation was just him taking the piss...
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
NW Leics is much the same, with lots of new housing and industrial units on the old coalfield. Trending Tory.
NW Leics was +3.6 in 2005, +8.45 in 2010, +12.60 in 2015 and +15.80 in 2017 so yes, very much trending Tory.
The only marginal of the 10 Leics seats is Loughborough, which still is a bellwether.
Loughborough trended somewhat to the Tories until 2015, which was reversed in 2017. As I say though, PVI creates new "marginals".
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
NW Leics is much the same, with lots of new housing and industrial units on the old coalfield. Trending Tory.
NW Leics was +3.6 in 2005, +8.45 in 2010, +12.60 in 2015 and +15.80 in 2017 so yes, very much trending Tory.
The only marginal of the 10 Leics seats is Loughborough, which still is a bellwether.
Could Labour please make a special effort there next time? The gain to public life would be considerable if they could take it.
Nicky Morgan is a good constituency MP, without her personal vote it is quite possible that May would have found it even harder to form a government.
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
NW Leics is much the same, with lots of new housing and industrial units on the old coalfield. Trending Tory.
NW Leics was +3.6 in 2005, +8.45 in 2010, +12.60 in 2015 and +15.80 in 2017 so yes, very much trending Tory.
The only marginal of the 10 Leics seats is Loughborough, which still is a bellwether.
Could Labour please make a special effort there next time? The gain to public life would be considerable if they could take it.
Nicky Morgan is a good constituency MP, without her personal vote it is quite possible that May would have found it even harder to form a government.
Is she? Well I'm glad to hear she's good at something.
I will also say she wasn't the worst Sec of State for Education of the last 30 years. However, that isn't especially difficult.
So as an LD, and past supporter of the last Coalition, would be most happy with Jezza as a minority government, kept on a short leash by a post Cable LD leader.
I take the opposite view myself. As a Lib Dem I'd be utterly horrified if my party did anything at all to prop up a Corbyn government. The man is a monster, frankly.
Support for a Tory government would be unwise, and a majority LD government seems some way off.
I am not suggesting Coalition, or even Confidence and Supply, but could see a LD party supporting some minority Lab gov legislation.
The Lib Dems would lose my vote if there was any chance of them propping up a Corbyn government.
You won't really know until after the next GE though will you?
So as an LD, and past supporter of the last Coalition, would be most happy with Jezza as a minority government, kept on a short leash by a post Cable LD leader.
I take the opposite view myself. As a Lib Dem I'd be utterly horrified if my party did anything at all to prop up a Corbyn government. The man is a monster, frankly.
Support for a Tory government would be unwise, and a majority LD government seems some way off.
I am not suggesting Coalition, or even Confidence and Supply, but could see a LD party supporting some minority Lab gov legislation.
The Lib Dems would lose my vote if there was any chance of them propping up a Corbyn government.
You won't really know until after the next GE though will you?
True. But I can see what their leader says. And if it is anything other than an unequivocal no, I won’t vote for them.
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
NW Leics is much the same, with lots of new housing and industrial units on the old coalfield. Trending Tory.
NW Leics was +3.6 in 2005, +8.45 in 2010, +12.60 in 2015 and +15.80 in 2017 so yes, very much trending Tory.
The only marginal of the 10 Leics seats is Loughborough, which still is a bellwether.
Could Labour please make a special effort there next time? The gain to public life would be considerable if they could take it.
Nicky Morgan is a good constituency MP, without her personal vote it is quite possible that May would have found it even harder to form a government.
Andy Reid was a good constituency MP for Loughborough, who sadly lost his seat to the waste of space who now represents the seat.
The top 29 seats to be trending away from Labour are ALL in Scotland (I'm excluding Buckingham for obvious reasons).
The top ten are all very urban seats:
Bethnal Green and Bow Birmingham Hall Green Leicester South Birmingham Hodge Hill Poplar and Limehouse Manchester Withington Walthamstow Liverpool Wavertree Birmingham Ladywood East Ham
Indeed the first 58 seats most to trend Labour are all urban or suburban. Number 59 is Truro and Falmouth.
It is all part of May's "Hostile Environment" for immigrants. Enoch would be proud, he specifically mentioned Commonwealth Doctors returning to their original nation.
SNIP SNIP SNIP
I know people who have been put back straight back on planes when landing in the US because they have played fast and loose with their visas.
To look at it another way: why are the home office spending tens of thousand pounds going through the courts trying to deport this guy, when we have just spent money training him to do a job in the NHS (GP) where there is an enormous skill shortage?
Its just a total waste of money. He should just be given the opportunity of regularising his situation.
Well that is what I said in the original post, but I was just pointing out again that people seem to think that uk visa rules are optional / don’t apply to them and then get a shock when having broken them they get a negative outcome and then guardian publishes a soft soap piece about it breezing over that they broke the rules.
Isn't the real point though that this is an absurd and ridiculous area of public policy?
You have the Government going around deporting vulnerable people who have been here for 40 years, and who probably have every moral right to be here, yet they don't have the paperwork. It's only the guardian that report on it. Thats one of the reasons why I am a guardian 'supporter'.
Whenever it comes up on PB, the poor person involved is inevitably cast as a liar with something to hide, with the guardian only telling 'one side of the story', yet of course the PB commentariat show no actual inclination to look in to what is really going on or find out the truth.
As for this guys case, people in the 20's are often late in sorting paperwork out. It happens to us all. It shouldn't be a big deal. Its a life lesson, not a ground to haul someone through the courts to deport them. The Home office bureaucracy has gone rogue and needs to be set straight.
The issue is that the Home Office needs to treat everyone equally.
If you have, say, a 15 day cure period for everyone then effectively you are just extending the original period and you would still get these cases.
The just thing to do is to send him back to Singapore but to fast track him back in with a legal visa.
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
NW Leics is much the same, with lots of new housing and industrial units on the old coalfield. Trending Tory.
NW Leics was +3.6 in 2005, +8.45 in 2010, +12.60 in 2015 and +15.80 in 2017 so yes, very much trending Tory.
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
NW Leics is much the same, with lots of new housing and industrial units on the old coalfield. Trending Tory.
NW Leics was +3.6 in 2005, +8.45 in 2010, +12.60 in 2015 and +15.80 in 2017 so yes, very much trending Tory.
What do the numbers mean ?
The Tory voteshare in the seat in 2005 was 3.6% higher than the national (inc. NI*) average whereas in 2017 it was 15.8% higher.
(*Since we are talking trends, this doesn't make much difference.)
The Tories improved their position nationally, but they improved it in NW Leics even more.
Regarding PVI, I thought it would also be interesting to look at a whole region. If we look at the former county of Avon the situation in 1992 was as follows:
Northavon C+43 (Lab in 3rd) Woodspring C+32 (Lab in 3rd) Weston C+29 (Lab in 3rd) Wansdyke C+13 Bristol W - C+10 (Lab in 3rd) Kingswood - L+4 Bristol NW - L+8 Bristol E - L+12 Bristol S - L+26 Bath LD maj 7%
In 2017 it is as follows:
Thornbury & Y C+41 (Lab in 3rd) N Somerset C+26 Weston C+18 NE Somerset C+17 Kingswood C+13 Filton & BS - C+6 Bristol NW - L+7 Bristol S - L+27 Bristol E - L+28 Bristol W - L+54 Bath LD maj 12%
Bristol W has massively swung Lab, and Lab have made some progress in Weston and N Somerset as the LDs have declined but Kingswood has swung the other way, while Con currently have the new seat that was created in Filton.
The change in Bristol W reflects the fact that the large houses have been split up into flats or become shared/student houses. The change in Kingswood reflects the new housing that has been built in estates like Emersons Green
Following the conversation about a UK Partisan Voting Index - i.e. to what extent does a seat typically out- or under-perform a party's national share, the biggest changers for the Tories since 2005 have been:
Moving towards the Tories:
1. Wyre Forest (always a Con seat) 2. Banff and Buchan (Con gain 2017) 3. Mansfield (Con gain 2017) 4. Stoke-on-Trent North (never won - just a lot closer now) 5. Plymouth Moor View (Con gain 2015) 6. Chesterfield (never won - just a lot closer now) 7. Morley and Outwood (Con gain 2015) 8. Moray (Con gain 2017) 9. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain 2017) 10. Cannock Chase (Con gain 2010)
Moving away from the Tories:
10. Orkney and Shetland (never won - indeed only started on 13%) 9. Hove (gain 2010, lost 2015) 8. Dulwich and West Norwood (never won) 7. Hammersmith (never won) 6. Enfield North (lost 2015 - now out of sight) 5. Ilford South (never won) 4. Sheffield Hallam (never won) 3. Leeds North West (never won) 2. Wallasey (never won) 1. Bradford West (never won)
Cannock Chase has a lot of nice new executive housing for Birmingham going up. As people in good jobs in Birmingham realised they could get a very nice four bedroom house in Cannock or Rugeley for around £250,000, they started moving to it. That's a trend that's only going to strengthen with the upgrade of the Chase line giving us trains to Stafford, Liverpool, Birmingham and possibly London every 15 minutes.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
NW Leics is much the same, with lots of new housing and industrial units on the old coalfield. Trending Tory.
NW Leics was +3.6 in 2005, +8.45 in 2010, +12.60 in 2015 and +15.80 in 2017 so yes, very much trending Tory.
What do the numbers mean ?
The Tory voteshare in the seat in 2005 was 3.6% higher than the national (inc. NI*) average whereas in 2017 it was 15.8% higher.
(*Since we are talking trends, this doesn't make much difference.)
The Tories improved their position nationally, but they improved it in NW Leics even more.
Regarding PVI, I thought it would also be interesting to look at a whole region. If we look at the former county of Avon the situation in 1992 was as follows:
Northavon C+43 (Lab in 3rd) Woodspring C+32 (Lab in 3rd) Weston C+29 (Lab in 3rd) Wansdyke C+13 Bristol W - C+10 (Lab in 3rd) Kingswood - L+4 Bristol NW - L+8 Bristol E - L+12 Bristol S - L+26 Bath LD maj 7%
In 2017 it is as follows:
Thornbury & Y C+41 (Lab in 3rd) N Somerset C+26 Weston C+18 NE Somerset C+17 Kingswood C+13 Filton & BS - C+6 Bristol NW - L+7 Bristol S - L+27 Bristol E - L+28 Bristol W - L+54 Bath LD maj 12%
Bristol W has massively swung Lab, and Lab have made some progress in Weston and N Somerset as the LDs have declined but Kingswood has swung the other way, while Con currently have the new seat that was created in Filton.
The change in Bristol W reflects the fact that the large houses have been split up into flats or become shared/student houses. The change in Kingswood reflects the new housing that has been built in estates like Emersons Green
Interesting points. (Not important but I don't understand your Northavon 1992 figure. The Tories were 17% ahead of the LDs at that election).
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
I saw some similar stuff earlier
Yeah I posted about it Wednesday & Thursday that something odd was going on, and it seems that the DoD was digging its heels in. There is a lot of dust and smoke being kicked up but what I do know is there are some air assets on the move. Positioning, monitoring or striking I do not know but its more volume than has been loping around sniffing the air in recent days.
This thing has been so convoluted that god knows what the comings and goings are.
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
I saw some similar stuff earlier
Yeah I posted about it Wednesday & Thursday that something odd was going on, and it seems that the DoD was digging its heels in. There is a lot of dust and smoke being kicked up but what I do know is there are some air assets on the move. Positioning, monitoring or striking I do not know but its more volume than has been loping around sniffing the air in recent days.
This thing has been so convoluted that god knows what the comings and goings are.
You saw the continuous P8 flights and the RAF deployment?
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
Technical question: is there a way of destroying chemical stocks without causing widespread damage to the local area where they're stored?
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
Technical question: is there a way of destroying chemical stocks without causing widespread damage to the local area where they're stored?
I will bow to Yokel on this but I think if the temperature is high enough they can be destroyed
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
Technical question: is there a way of destroying chemical stocks without causing widespread damage to the local area where they're stored?
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
I saw some similar stuff earlier
Yeah I posted about it Wednesday & Thursday that something odd was going on, and it seems that the DoD was digging its heels in. There is a lot of dust and smoke being kicked up but what I do know is there are some air assets on the move. Positioning, monitoring or striking I do not know but its more volume than has been loping around sniffing the air in recent days.
This thing has been so convoluted that god knows what the comings and goings are.
You saw the continuous P8 flights and the RAF deployment?
The US have been flying more than the P8 flights, there has been a large gathering effort for days now but the ostensibly maritime patrol flights have been like clockwork. Its more the appearance of other resources in the air that may have a different reason to be cruising through being there but would be worth taking note of. Like USAF tankers.
Nothing, however is certain til you see a weapon launched. Trump is due to make a statement shortly. If usual protocol is practiced, actions are already underway. The only alternatives are a statement to say we will be doing it before you do it, which is stupid, or a volte face.
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
I saw some similar stuff earlier
Yeah I posted about it Wednesday & Thursday that something odd was going on, and it seems that the DoD was digging its heels in. There is a lot of dust and smoke being kicked up but what I do know is there are some air assets on the move. Positioning, monitoring or striking I do not know but its more volume than has been loping around sniffing the air in recent days.
This thing has been so convoluted that god knows what the comings and goings are.
You saw the continuous P8 flights and the RAF deployment?
The US have been flying more than the P8 flights, there has been a large gathering effort for days now but the ostensibly maritime patrol flights have been like clockwork. Its more the appearance of other resources in the air that may have a different reason to be cruising through being there but would be worth taking note of. Like USAF tankers.
Nothing, however is certain til you see a weapon launched. Trump is due to make a statement shortly. If usual protocol is practiced, actions are already underway. The only alternatives are a statement to say we will be doing it before you do it, which is stupid, or a volte face.
Did you see my link below re possible Russian actions if they decide to respond, and
What time is Trump talking .. and is it a planned statement
In 2 minutes.
I'd not bet on any particular Russian response other than attempt to shoot down some incoming missiles. In fact if the DoD have done their work, the Russians will sit still.
There is no clarity on whether the Damascus explosions are air launched or surface launched weapons but at this point it would be a surprise if everything was not stand off in nature.
It looks like a graded US process: Hit, pause, get something from Assad & Russia or hit again.
Yes - he certainly is looking at more than a token attack
Depends, five of these things landing is like an apocalypse. Plus it appears air defences are going in volume to try to bring the missiles down. Also very loud.
But then all we are aware of is Damascus. No other reports.
Eyes on Akiotiri, they are reportedly off. Short hop.
It looks like bases of one his most Assad's steadfast units, the 4th Division may also be on the list as well as an airfield but reports so far are distant from both facilities.
Eyes on Akiotiri, they are reportedly off. Short hop.
It looks like bases of one his most Assad's steadfast units, the 4th Division may also be on the list as well as an airfield.
Most importantly - Russians at any of these locations?
They should have bugged out if they were. Badged personnel have consolidated.
It should be that some of the delivery is coming from where everyone is not looking, not just over the Med. Anything coming that way is much more in sight of air defences and of course it may well be that an air launched RAF mission will come in exactly that way.....
Eyes on Akiotiri, they are reportedly off. Short hop.
It looks like bases of one his most Assad's steadfast units, the 4th Division may also be on the list as well as an airfield.
Most importantly - Russians at any of these locations?
They should have bugged out if they were. Badged personnel have consolidated.
It should be that some of the delivery is coming from where everyone is not looking, not just over the Med. Anything coming that way is much more in sight of air defences and of course it may well be that an air launched RAF mission will come in exactly that way.....
God - I still shudder to remember our Tornado attacks in Gulf war one - stay safe people
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
Technical question: is there a way of destroying chemical stocks without causing widespread damage to the local area where they're stored?
Yep. blow them up and incinerate them.
Silly question I suppose, but I don't know anything about the subject.
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
Technical question: is there a way of destroying chemical stocks without causing widespread damage to the local area where they're stored?
Yep. blow them up and incinerate them.
Silly question I suppose, but I don't know anything about the subject.
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
Technical question: is there a way of destroying chemical stocks without causing widespread damage to the local area where they're stored?
Yep. blow them up and incinerate them.
Silly question I suppose, but I don't know anything about the subject.
Nothing wrong in asking if unsure
I thought that if you just blow them up you might release a cloud of toxic fumes or something like that, and that there might be a special type of missile to stop that happening.
It looks like something significant re: Syria is coming out this evening.
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
Technical question: is there a way of destroying chemical stocks without causing widespread damage to the local area where they're stored?
Yep. blow them up and incinerate them.
Silly question I suppose, but I don't know anything about the subject.
Nothing wrong in asking if unsure
I thought that if you just blow them up you might release a cloud of toxic fumes or something like that, and that there might be a special type of missile to stop that happening.
Not a chemist, but I think burning is the usual way to dispose of chemical weapons. Probably very high risk to do it with a missile though!
Definitely right about the tankers, B-1 bombers with stand off gear are according to US reports part of the operation.
It appears that notes and a complete set of instructions of the Israeli strike a number of days back has made its way to US planners. Theres a bit of a weak spot that a lot of this stuff is coming through. And thats just one weak spot.
Comments
Saffron Walden (deduct 19 points)
Daventry (deduct 21 points)
Birmingham Perry Barr (add 15 points)
Northampton South (deduct 5 points).
Only the last is an actual marginal.
That doesn't mean there isn't a very solid Labour vote and indeed some serious pockets of deprivation. I believe Rugeley has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in the whole country, for example. But it does suggest that this is a seat that will continue tending heavily blue over time, much faster than I had expected.
Trump former campaign chairman: indicted
Trump WH national security adviser: pleads guilty
Trump former deputy campaign chairman: pleads guilty
Trump campaign foreign policy adviser: pleads guilty
Trump personal lawyer and close confidant: under criminal investigation
https://order-order.com/2018/04/13/diane-abbott-car-crash-ww2-only-time-wed-back-military-action/
The anti-Con seats tend to those with heavy demographic change or where natural Conservative voters have switched tactically to the LibDems. Hove has become like Brighton and Wallasey like Liverpool.
Worryingly the person who was shown up by that particular interview later became Tory leader.
In practice any such NoC outcome would lead to a second election.
All theoretical though. I think it quite likely that none of the parties will have the current leader at the next General Election.
Castle Point
Isle of Wight
Brent Central
Hampstead and Kilburn
Richmond Park
Ealing Southall
Aldridge-Brownhills
Winchester
Hartlepool
Mostly the effect of third parties (UKIP and the LibDems)
I will also say she wasn't the worst Sec of State for Education of the last 30 years. However, that isn't especially difficult.
Bed time.
The top ten are all very urban seats:
Bethnal Green and Bow
Birmingham Hall Green
Leicester South
Birmingham Hodge Hill
Poplar and Limehouse
Manchester Withington
Walthamstow
Liverpool Wavertree
Birmingham Ladywood
East Ham
Indeed the first 58 seats most to trend Labour are all urban or suburban. Number 59 is Truro and Falmouth.
If you have, say, a 15 day cure period for everyone then effectively you are just extending the original period and you would still get these cases.
The just thing to do is to send him back to Singapore but to fast track him back in with a legal visa.
(*Since we are talking trends, this doesn't make much difference.)
The Tories improved their position nationally, but they improved it in NW Leics even more.
Northavon C+43 (Lab in 3rd)
Woodspring C+32 (Lab in 3rd)
Weston C+29 (Lab in 3rd)
Wansdyke C+13
Bristol W - C+10 (Lab in 3rd)
Kingswood - L+4
Bristol NW - L+8
Bristol E - L+12
Bristol S - L+26
Bath LD maj 7%
In 2017 it is as follows:
Thornbury & Y C+41 (Lab in 3rd)
N Somerset C+26
Weston C+18
NE Somerset C+17
Kingswood C+13
Filton & BS - C+6
Bristol NW - L+7
Bristol S - L+27
Bristol E - L+28
Bristol W - L+54
Bath LD maj 12%
Bristol W has massively swung Lab, and Lab have made some progress in Weston and N Somerset as the LDs have declined but Kingswood has swung the other way, while Con currently have the new seat that was created in Filton.
The change in Bristol W reflects the fact that the large houses have been split up into flats or become shared/student houses. The change in Kingswood reflects the new housing that has been built in estates like Emersons Green
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-seeks-large-strike-in-syria-mattis-urges-caution-1523651589?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/fqM785tKDC
http://tass.com/defense/999641
sorry, not sold on this
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5613913/Stabbed-burglar-tried-rob-pensioner-spent-years-preying-elderly-gang-relatives.html
Stories from Washington suggest Mattis fought an action for minimal strikes but may well have been overruled. This would tally with the last 24-36 hours of leaks and public pronouncements from the DoD who were setting out their stall in public forums.
Soon see.
This thing has been so convoluted that god knows what the comings and goings are.
Nothing, however is certain til you see a weapon launched. Trump is due to make a statement shortly. If usual protocol is practiced, actions are already underway. The only alternatives are a statement to say we will be doing it before you do it, which is stupid, or a volte face.
Did you see my link below re possible Russian actions if they decide to respond, and
What time is Trump talking .. and is it a planned statement
I'd not bet on any particular Russian response other than attempt to shoot down some incoming missiles. In fact if the DoD have done their work, the Russians will sit still.
Anything beyond is real guesswork.
It looks like a graded US process: Hit, pause, get something from Assad & Russia or hit again.
But then all we are aware of is Damascus. No other reports.
It looks like bases of one his most Assad's steadfast units, the 4th Division may also be on the list as well as an airfield but reports so far are distant from both facilities.
It should be that some of the delivery is coming from where everyone is not looking, not just over the Med. Anything coming that way is much more in sight of air defences and of course it may well be that an air launched RAF mission will come in exactly that way.....
https://dvparty.uk/
Has anyone been to the Galapagos Islands? If so, any recommendations.
It appears that notes and a complete set of instructions of the Israeli strike a number of days back has made its way to US planners. Theres a bit of a weak spot that a lot of this stuff is coming through. And thats just one weak spot.
And possibly not to Akrotiri either.
http://www.lemonde.fr/
You just hope they have plenty of combat air patrols working. .