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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Labour prepares for its conference today’s YouGov report

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  • Financier said:

    At the half-way stage of the Conference Season (TUC, UKIP and LDs done, LAB and Cons to come)

    The UKIP conference has not been 'done'. It is on Friday/Saturday.

    http://www.ukip.org/54-events/715-conference-2013-celebrate-20-years-of-ukip
  • This Yougov is probably an outlier wthin a trend that is against Labour. But it is still fun to dream, oh deep joy. Having endured a few days of the LDs strutting around placing deposits on the Conservatives image, we now enter the time of Damien McBride followed shortly after by the smell around Hancock. Meanwhile the LD MP that has some dubious views on Jews - David Ward - has had the LD whip reinstated. Makes the use of the word Liberal in Lib Dems very ironic if not a miss-selling under the Trade Descriptions Act.

    Polls notoriously bounce around at conference season and I doubt we’ll see a reliable YouGov poll until a week after the final party pitch – ...... but still would have expected to see a LibDem bouncet.
    No doubt Labour will regain the lead soon, maybe tomorrow, but the pre-conference season polls did reveal a trend and it will interesting to see if that continues after the shindigs are over.
    The impact of a Conference may not be until the day after it finishes. In the LDs case they spent time clarifying all the things that the 10% of voters who like them would welcome. However most of the other 90% actually want a crack down on welfare and immigration etc. So maybe the LDs were just reinforcing their 10%? We shall see.
    Regarding Labour we are now well past the summer holiday season and I always expect the Conservatives to do better (and Labour worse) in polls that are not in a holiday period.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Plato said:

    RT @DJack_Journo: Fancy that! Ed Miliband has richest Labour top table ever with 20 millionaires, writes @tnewtondunn ow.ly/i/3bIh9

    "The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”

    Orwell predicts the future of the Labour party and, sadly, all our politics in 1945.

    It's more about house price inflation.

    Clearly that is a factor SO but the bigger picture is that politics has become a middle class, aspirational career for PPEs on the make. Our politics is drawn from a small and increasingly unrepresentative portion of our population who make themselves look ridiculous when they try to pretend they are one of us.

    The tories always had tendencies that way although you think back to Maggie and John Major who weren't. For Labour it is unquestionably a major part of the Blair legacy. If our politics is to engage more people it needs a broader range of voice.
    The Guardian had an article about this. Less than 350,000 houses are estimated to be worth £1 million. That's about 1.4% of the 25 million houses in the UK.

    If middle class now means the top 1% of society then words have begun to lost their meaning - something Orwell also wrote about.
  • Point of order - there is no such thing as the "0207" area of London. The code for London is simply 020 and the 7s and 8s are part of the actual number. We have leading threes and all sorts now and the old 0171 0181 boundaries were blurred long ago.

    The idea that London has two phone codes is a myth. It has just one: 020.

    Aren't the 0207 numbers in the centre of London and the 0208s around the outer parts, or

    Point of order - there is no such thing as the "0207" area of London. The code for London is simply 020 and the 7s and 8s are part of the actual number. We have leading threes and all sorts now and the old 0171 0181 boundaries were blurred long ago.

    The idea that London has two phone codes is a myth. It has just one: 020.

    Aren't the 0207 numbers in the centre of London and the 0208s around the outer parts, or Greater London?

    Are there any 0208s in central London and vice versa?

    Yes - there are 8s in inner London now I believe along with 3s and 7s- the code for London is 020: why some people still think it has two codes a decade or so after it unified is beyond me.




    Fair enough, I knew there were 0203s.

    To be fair to @SouthamObserver, most people who have livedor worked in London over the last twenty years would know what he meant by the 0207 part of London



    I had no idea about the 0203 numbers, or that there were 0208s in inner London. I just assumed 0207 had taken over from 0171. But I still remember clearly when it was 01 and have vague memories of the first three digits being alphabetised (?). When I was very young we lived in GULliver. That became 485.

    http://www.rhaworth.myby.co.uk/phreak/tenp_01.htm
  • Bobajob said:

    DavidL said:

    As OGH points out, in polling terms, essentially meaningless poll within MOE of a 4-5 point Labour lead.

    Further the two internals asked show bug jumps in favour of the govt, suggesting as Nick Palmer would put it a "Tory leaning" panel:

    Net approval: -21 (+5)
    Net support for coalition: -22 (+15)

    That said, the big jump in coalition support is from within the Coalition (Con +27, LibD +13), so there may be something else going on.....

    However, in terms of the media narrative......

    I wonder if, rather than a Lib Dem bounce, that has been at least partly a consequence of the Lib Dem conference who tried very hard to sell Coalitions as a "good thing".

    The poll is almost certainly an outlier and will no doubt be "corrected" by the next one but it is as bad a poll for the Lib Dems as it is for Labour. It is an important part of the tory victory strategy that the Lib Dems get at least 5% back from Labour by the election and I am getting slightly concerned that there is no sign of that happening. No sign at all. Labour are very slowly losing support but not to the Lib Dems.
    I agree with all of that, and think that the "Coalition is a good thing" narrative from the LibDems may have had some effect. There is a very small LD bounce in there and it's possible to imagine it getting bigger in tonight's poll as Clegg's speech got fairly good coverage. If he does pull back some LibDems then we might see a Tory lead, but a low labour lead is probably more likely.

    That said, we all need to keep cool during the conference season - it always produces interesting effects but they tend to cancel out.

    It won't be tonight's poll if it shows a Labour lead Nick. It will be tomorrow's...

    I've no doubt there will be plenty of polls which show labour in the lead in the future, but the trend is pretty clear. Last year it was, 'labour's got a double digit lead', then 'labour's still in the 40s with a 8-9 point lead', then...so on and so forth.

    It probably is an 'outlier' but there should be no doubt that labour should be worried. This, and polls like this will give the tories confidence, and that's one of the greatest qualities any government and party need to have.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    When are we going to see an "outlier" with Lab on 44% ?

    LOL
  • Off-topic:

    I know there are some Apple fans on here (you fools!), so some of you might like this Guardian article on Apple's move to a 64-bit processor architecture on IOS.

    A fair warning: it was written by techies (actually, ex-colleagues of mine) who know the ARM chipset in a rather worryingly intimate way.

    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/sep/18/iphone-5s-apple-a7-chip-64-bit-explained

    And an Anandtech review on the new iPhone 5S, which uses the new architecture. Apparently it's fast. Very fast.
    http://www.anandtech.com/show/7335/the-iphone-5s-review/5

    My immediate reaction to the 64bit news for the 5s was "wow, what's the point in that? Completely useless on this form factor, etc", but doing more research reveals it's not just for show.
    Still won't make me get a 5s yet, still v happy with my 5.

    Upgraded to iOS7 last night. MUCH better than iOS6. Some really nice features.
    The move to 64-bits is a BIG THING (tm). I just need to work out whether it's worth my while learning the basics of the new AArch32 and AArch64 formats, considering modern code shouldn't really need to touch the assembler - let the compiler do the work. (*)

    But the biggest impact won't be on your handheld phone or fondleslab. The real battle is for the server market, and that's what Intel's really worried about. Moving to 64-bit addressing architecture will make ARM processors much more suitable for use in server farms.

    Intel is worried, and rightly so. But their response is also looking rather good, even if you take bogus benchmarks out of the equation.

    (*) Yeah, right.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Outliers:

    Considering that - with 95% confidence - one-in-twenty samples (based upon a reasonable population) will be an outlier this whole YouGov gazing is pointless. For YouGov to collect such data requires four weeks and, as with any time-series, much of it may well be out-of-date.

    Yet the obsession exists: It is mainly the left pokeing when they are down and fibrillating when they are up. The problem is - as any fule knows - that the time-series cannot predict when nor where the outlier exists. Today's YouGov looks absurd but it is the most recent: Against which historical survey should it be weighed (or weighted) against.

    So another day and the usual rant-fests. I doubt anyone cognisant - that excludes the Soho Sewer-rat and :tumbleweed: - is no better informed....

    This is true, but as long as you compare like against like, outliers can also provide useful information.

    For example, if you look at all the YouGov polls in May, then the outlier most in the Conservatives favour still had them 6% behind. That's quite a shift in four months.

    This is one of the advantages of the daily YouGov polling - it becomes clear which polls are outliers with only a little hindsight. With a monthly poll - such as from ICM - it is much harder to discriminate between real shifts in opinion and statistical outliers.
    The problem is that this poll looking at it's raw data is not an outlier , the Past Vote in 2010 is pretty much spot on . What turns it into an outlier is the weighting which changes the poll from an actual 8% Labour lead in the sample to a dead heat after weighting adjustments rather than a 5 to 6 % Labour lead that the sampling adjustments of previous days would have given .
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited September 2013
    From the latest IpsosMORI/STV News quarterly Scottish Public Opinion Monitor:

    Referendum voting intention, by party support

    SNP voters: 76% Yes 24% No
    Lab voters: 18% Yes 82% No
    Con voters: 1% Yes 99% No
    LD voters: 15% Yes 85% No

    The key group is obviously the Labour voters intending to vote Yes. 18% is one of the lowest figures I have seen for this group, and the Yes Scotland campaign really needs to build this figure back up towards the 40% level which we have seen before.

    In this task we have a fantastic set of allies in Ed Miliband, Johann Lamont, Anas Sarwar & co.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited September 2013
    A surprising piece from lefty-Janice

    "Will Jeremy Clarkson really stand in Doncaster North? His tweet sounds like a mischievous wind-up concocted over a three-bottle “country supper” with his Chipping Norton chum the Prime Minister. Either way it will unnerve Ed Miliband and his team. His seat, where I, like Clarkson, grew up and my mother still lives, has a fat Labour majority: 47 per cent of the 2010 vote, compared with the Tories’ 21 per cent. But old tribal loyalties have frayed and the town has a cussed streak.

    Until May, Doncaster’s mayor was an English Democrat (latterly Independent), Peter Davies, who stood on an anti-PC platform of sod the EU, immigration, polar bears, gay Pride marches, bus lanes and smoking bans. In essence, the Top Gear ticket. And he won on stolen Labour votes. The local party still bears the taint of Donnygate, the 1990s council corruption scandal; the national party is seen as London-centric, poncey and remote, as personified by Miliband.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/janiceturner/article3872896.ece
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Plato said:

    RT @DJack_Journo: Fancy that! Ed Miliband has richest Labour top table ever with 20 millionaires, writes @tnewtondunn ow.ly/i/3bIh9

    "The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”

    Orwell predicts the future of the Labour party and, sadly, all our politics in 1945.

    It's more about house price inflation.

    Clearly that is a factor SO but the bigger picture is that politics has become a middle class, aspirational career for PPEs on the make. Our politics is drawn from a small and increasingly unrepresentative portion of our population who make themselves look ridiculous when they try to pretend they are one of us.

    The tories always had tendencies that way although you think back to Maggie and John Major who weren't. For Labour it is unquestionably a major part of the Blair legacy. If our politics is to engage more people it needs a broader range of voice.
    The Guardian had an article about this. Less than 350,000 houses are estimated to be worth £1 million. That's about 1.4% of the 25 million houses in the UK.

    If middle class now means the top 1% of society then words have begun to lost their meaning - something Orwell also wrote about.

    That 350,000 is very concentrated in London:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/counties/html/county39.stm#table

    If you look at the average cost of a detached house in London, there are 12 boroughs where it is £1 million plus.
  • Anyone else have the urge to draw an arrow on that bar chart saying "Only The Lib Dems can win here" or is it just me?
  • Miss Plato, I think it very unlikely Clarkson would stand.

    But if he did, the Conservatives should either withdraw or run the lowest key campaign possible.
  • Wow..a complete field chock full of rabbits today...everywhere you look
  • Off-topic:

    I know there are some Apple fans on here (you fools!), so some of you might like this Guardian article on Apple's move to a 64-bit processor architecture on IOS.

    A fair warning: it was written by techies (actually, ex-colleagues of mine) who know the ARM chipset in a rather worryingly intimate way.

    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/sep/18/iphone-5s-apple-a7-chip-64-bit-explained

    And an Anandtech review on the new iPhone 5S, which uses the new architecture. Apparently it's fast. Very fast.
    http://www.anandtech.com/show/7335/the-iphone-5s-review/5

    My immediate reaction to the 64bit news for the 5s was "wow, what's the point in that? Completely useless on this form factor, etc", but doing more research reveals it's not just for show.
    Still won't make me get a 5s yet, still v happy with my 5.

    Upgraded to iOS7 last night. MUCH better than iOS6. Some really nice features.
    The move to 64-bits is a BIG THING (tm). I just need to work out whether it's worth my while learning the basics of the new AArch32 and AArch64 formats, considering modern code shouldn't really need to touch the assembler - let the compiler do the work. (*)

    But the biggest impact won't be on your handheld phone or fondleslab. The real battle is for the server market, and that's what Intel's really worried about. Moving to 64-bit addressing architecture will make ARM processors much more suitable for use in server farms.

    Intel is worried, and rightly so. But their response is also looking rather good, even if you take bogus benchmarks out of the equation.

    (*) Yeah, right.
    It's remarkable that there will be people out there walking around with a fully functional 64bit computer in their pocket whilst still having a 32bit beige-box at home...
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Plato said:

    RT @DJack_Journo: Fancy that! Ed Miliband has richest Labour top table ever with 20 millionaires, writes @tnewtondunn ow.ly/i/3bIh9

    "The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”

    Orwell predicts the future of the Labour party and, sadly, all our politics in 1945.

    It's more about house price inflation.

    Clearly that is a factor SO but the bigger picture is that politics has become a middle class, aspirational career for PPEs on the make. Our politics is drawn from a small and increasingly unrepresentative portion of our population who make themselves look ridiculous when they try to pretend they are one of us.

    The tories always had tendencies that way although you think back to Maggie and John Major who weren't. For Labour it is unquestionably a major part of the Blair legacy. If our politics is to engage more people it needs a broader range of voice.
    The Guardian had an article about this. Less than 350,000 houses are estimated to be worth £1 million. That's about 1.4% of the 25 million houses in the UK.

    If middle class now means the top 1% of society then words have begun to lost their meaning - something Orwell also wrote about.

    That 350,000 is very concentrated in London:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/counties/html/county39.stm#table

    If you look at the average cost of a detached house in London, there are 12 boroughs where it is £1 million plus.
    perhaps the average is not a good statistic in this case. how about the median?

  • " Less than 350,000 houses are estimated to be worth £1 million. That's about 1.4% of the 25 million houses in the UK."

    If we ever have the madness of a punitive mansion tax rather than just a smaller hit from a few extra council tax bands, the incentive to sub-divide properties near or over each threshold will be massive. It will eventually lead to the loss of 1/4 to 1/3 of the £1m+houses. It will of course increase the apparent housing stocking by tens of thousands. A miraculous event. But the mansion tax as with all taxes will lead to avoidance.
  • Roger said:

    @David
    "David Kendrick, a member of Shepreth Parish Council, was linked to a group who laid bets on horse races using inside information, colluding with owners and jockeys who had deliberately ridden horses to lose.""
    True or Tory dirty tricks?

    Looks more like Labour's antics - perhaps Mr Kendrick may clarify?

    Mr Kendrick I do feel a lot of sympathy and I like your attitude to it all. Unfortunately if you get into the bed of politics which is full of dogs with fleas, you will have a high chance of catching some.
    I'm not sure that I will make any useful progress by guessing who is responsible. TBH, I doubt if it is the tories. They seem to be asleep in Cambridge.

    And to be fair to the reporter writing the article, he did phone me twice yesterday to check some facts. His view was that he had 'a story'; I do not whinge at that---his job is finding and writing stories.

  • Outliers:

    Considering that - with 95% confidence - one-in-twenty samples (based upon a reasonable population) will be an outlier this whole YouGov gazing is pointless. For YouGov to collect such data requires four weeks and, as with any time-series, much of it may well be out-of-date.

    Yet the obsession exists: It is mainly the left pokeing when they are down and fibrillating when they are up. The problem is - as any fule knows - that the time-series cannot predict when nor where the outlier exists. Today's YouGov looks absurd but it is the most recent: Against which historical survey should it be weighed (or weighted) against.

    So another day and the usual rant-fests. I doubt anyone cognisant - that excludes the Soho Sewer-rat and :tumbleweed: - is no better informed....

    This is true, but as long as you compare like against like, outliers can also provide useful information.

    For example, if you look at all the YouGov polls in May, then the outlier most in the Conservatives favour still had them 6% behind. That's quite a shift in four months.

    This is one of the advantages of the daily YouGov polling - it becomes clear which polls are outliers with only a little hindsight. With a monthly poll - such as from ICM - it is much harder to discriminate between real shifts in opinion and statistical outliers.
    The problem is that this poll looking at it's raw data is not an outlier , the Past Vote in 2010 is pretty much spot on . What turns it into an outlier is the weighting which changes the poll from an actual 8% Labour lead in the sample to a dead heat after weighting adjustments rather than a 5 to 6 % Labour lead that the sampling adjustments of previous days would have given .

    Presumably, that's a YG call and not one that could be influenced by the news agenda desires of the client. It would be interesting to understand why YG did it though.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    " Less than 350,000 houses are estimated to be worth £1 million. That's about 1.4% of the 25 million houses in the UK."

    If we ever have the madness of a punitive mansion tax rather than just a smaller hit from a few extra council tax bands, the incentive to sub-divide properties near or over each threshold will be massive. It will eventually lead to the loss of 1/4 to 1/3 of the £1m+houses. It will of course increase the apparent housing stocking by tens of thousands. A miraculous event. But the mansion tax as with all taxes will lead to avoidance.

    If you have a £1.001M house simply erect a huge phallic statue on the front lawn saving yourself £20k per annum from Vince's grabbing hands.
  • Clarkson might be a native of the Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire but he is also a long term non-resident- Don't think he could count on the local lad support much. But he would do enough to worry Miliband and keep him distracted I would feel
  • Anyone owning a property worth £1 million or more is either going to be asset rich or income rich (or both). They might not feel rich by the standards of those they circulate with, but they are. And we still get pbers bleating about the removal of child benefit from higher rate taxpayers - unaccountably believing that they should be subsidised by the childless on low pay.

    In the words of George Michael, the rich declare themselves poor and most of us are not sure if we have too much but we'll take our chances, 'cause God's stopped keeping score.
  • 'Why the Scots MUST vote for independence! It'll save the rest of us a fortune, says a very provocative Simon Heffer'
    ... Since the mid-Nineties I have been convinced that England and Scotland would benefit from a divorce, or at least from a trial separation. Many Scots don’t much like the English and appear ungrateful for everything that England does for them in showering them with money.

    ... I believe that an independent Scotland would soon find itself unequal to the struggle of self-government, because the English money tap would be turned off. Its people would have to work, or starve.

    ...Much of the potential oil reserves lie in the territorial waters of the Shetland Islands, whose population would rather be part of Norway than of an independent Scotland.

    ... What Scotland is most short of, sadly, is hard-working, wealth-creating Scots. Those with drive and determination seem mostly to be in England, where they can escape the various degrees of state socialism that pass for government in today’s Scotland.

    ... The only question is: when these ‘independent’ Scots eventually see sense and want to rejoin the Union that flourished for 300 years, will England want them back again?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2424713/Why-Scots-MUST-vote-independence-Itll-save-rest-fortune-says-provocative-SIMON-HEFFER.html#ixzz2fKFvf3I0

    Hmmm... how many votes did the campaign for Shetland to join Norway get at the last election? The answer (as if anybody did not know) is a big fat zero.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Plato said:

    RT @DJack_Journo: Fancy that! Ed Miliband has richest Labour top table ever with 20 millionaires, writes @tnewtondunn ow.ly/i/3bIh9

    "The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”

    Orwell predicts the future of the Labour party and, sadly, all our politics in 1945.

    It's more about house price inflation.

    Clearly that is a factor SO but the bigger picture is that politics has become a middle class, aspirational career for PPEs on the make. Our politics is drawn from a small and increasingly unrepresentative portion of our population who make themselves look ridiculous when they try to pretend they are one of us.

    The tories always had tendencies that way although you think back to Maggie and John Major who weren't. For Labour it is unquestionably a major part of the Blair legacy. If our politics is to engage more people it needs a broader range of voice.
    The Guardian had an article about this. Less than 350,000 houses are estimated to be worth £1 million. That's about 1.4% of the 25 million houses in the UK.

    If middle class now means the top 1% of society then words have begun to lost their meaning - something Orwell also wrote about.

    That 350,000 is very concentrated in London:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/counties/html/county39.stm#table

    If you look at the average cost of a detached house in London, there are 12 boroughs where it is £1 million plus.
    There are more than 5 million households in London, so even if they are all in London it's still less than 7% of London households. The richest 10% might form the middle class on a strict Marxist definition, but it's fanciful to argue that people with £1 million homes - even in London - are not a class apart from the vast majority of the population.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:LLOY.L&it=le

    Lloyds up 0.5p since GO sold 6% - not much of a Bernanke bounce..
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I do love Matt Ridley

    " No, it’s not Benjamin Button; the oldest in history died at 122 — the best we can manage today is 116

    The two oldest men in the world died recently. Jiroemon Kimura, a 116-year-old, died in June in Japan after becoming the oldest man yet recorded. His successor Salustiano Sanchez, aged 112 and born in Spain, died last week in New York State. That leaves just two men in the world known to be over 110, compared with 58 women (19 of whom are Japanese, 20 American). By contrast there are now half a million people over 100, and the number is growing at 7 per cent a year.

    For all the continuing improvements in average life expectancy, the maximum age of human beings seems to be stuck. It’s still very difficult even for women to get to 110 and the number of people who reach 115 seems if anything to be falling. According to Professor Stephen Coles, of the Gerontology Research Group at University of California, Los Angeles, your probability of dying each year shoots up to 50 per cent once you reach 110 and 70 per cent at 115..." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3872913.ece


  • If you look at the average cost of a detached house in London, there are 12 boroughs where it is £1 million plus. There are more than 5 million households in London, so even if they are all in London it's still less than 7% of London households. The richest 10% might form the middle class on a strict Marxist definition, but it's fanciful to argue that people with £1 million homes - even in London - are not a class apart from the vast majority of the population.



    They are very lucky and most will tend to be living in inner London. Where I grew up a fair few people bought council houses that are now worth over £1 million. My original argument was in labelling them as "millionaires" without specifying that it is the value of the property, and nothing else, which gets them to that level. Furthermore, if primary properties are going to be used as a measure of net wealth, owning a home (and even a flat) in most parts of London makes you at least "extremely well off", even if you are not "a millionaire"; indeed, you could extend that beyond London and well into the home counties, the south coast and parts of the midlands.



  • If you look at the average cost of a detached house in London, there are 12 boroughs where it is £1 million plus.

    There are more than 5 million households in London, so even if they are all in London it's still less than 7% of London households. The richest 10% might form the middle class on a strict Marxist definition, but it's fanciful to argue that people with £1 million homes - even in London - are not a class apart from the vast majority of the population.



    They are very lucky and most will tend to be living in inner London. Where I grew up a fair few people bought council houses that are now worth over £1 million. My original argument was in labelling them as "millionaires" without specifying that it is the value of the property, and nothing else, which gets them to that level. Furthermore, if primary properties are going to be used as a measure of net wealth, owning a home (and even a flat) in most parts of London makes you at least "extremely well off", even if you are not "a millionaire"; indeed, you could extend that beyond London and well into the home counties, the south coast and parts of the midlands.



    It seems logical to me to include all assets (and liabilities of course) in defining how well off or rich you are including the two main things people miss off when complainig about how not well off they are - houses and pension entitlement - Public sector workers especially like to forget about pension entitlement in moaning about how poor they are
  • Outliers:

    Considering that - with 95% confidence - one-in-twenty samples (based upon a reasonable population) will be an outlier this whole YouGov gazing is pointless. For YouGov to collect such data requires four weeks and, as with any time-series, much of it may well be out-of-date.

    Yet the obsession exists: It is mainly the left pokeing when they are down and fibrillating when they are up. The problem is - as any fule knows - that the time-series cannot predict when nor where the outlier exists. Today's YouGov looks absurd but it is the most recent: Against which historical survey should it be weighed (or weighted) against.

    So another day and the usual rant-fests. I doubt anyone cognisant - that excludes the Soho Sewer-rat and :tumbleweed: - is no better informed....

    This is true, but as long as you compare like against like, outliers can also provide useful information.

    For example, if you look at all the YouGov polls in May, then the outlier most in the Conservatives favour still had them 6% behind. That's quite a shift in four months.

    This is one of the advantages of the daily YouGov polling - it becomes clear which polls are outliers with only a little hindsight. With a monthly poll - such as from ICM - it is much harder to discriminate between real shifts in opinion and statistical outliers.
    The problem is that this poll looking at it's raw data is not an outlier , the Past Vote in 2010 is pretty much spot on . What turns it into an outlier is the weighting which changes the poll from an actual 8% Labour lead in the sample to a dead heat after weighting adjustments rather than a 5 to 6 % Labour lead that the sampling adjustments of previous days would have given .

    Presumably, that's a YG call and not one that could be influenced by the news agenda desires of the client. It would be interesting to understand why YG did it though.

    Past vote won't be the only factor YouGov use. Survation's last change to their weighting was around household income. Perhaps all the Labour respondents in this sample were millionaires? Or public sector employees?

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm finding the contortions Labourites are going though in an attempt to nullify being a *millionaire* very amusing. Next Pat Spin Doctor Hennessey will have attended a "comprehensive [fee paying] " like @Roger did at Millfield.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Mr Rentoul nails it.

    "Nick Clegg, leader of the Illiberal Democrats, will announce in his leader’s speech today a plan to offer school lunches free at the point of consumption to all five-, six- and seven-year-olds.

    This is a nice-sounding idea, and never mind that Lib Dems have opposed it when Labour councils have done it (see picture, thanks to Victoria Mills).

    But it is not a liberal idea to spend £600m of taxpayers’ money on a subsidy to better-off parents... " Great pix to go with the article.

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/09/18/no-such-thing-as-a-free-school-lunch/
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Morning all and I am glad to see my prediction on Twitter yesterday morning that the LibDems might get a conference bounce to 10% has been proved right.

    No doubt this evening the daily YouGov will be back to something like 34/38/14/9 but the direction of travel is now apparent. The interesting thing will be whether the much anticipated cross-over occurs during the Labour conference or whether Ed gets a bouncette giving him a lead in the 5-7 range unless of course its Survation or a similar polling company which will give him a lead of 10 or more.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited September 2013
    Tony Blair's daughter Kathryn held at gunpoint in attempted robbery

    Kathryn Blair was targeted while she was with her boyfriend and friends in Marylebone

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24157161
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Plato said:

    I'm finding the contortions Labourites are going though in an attempt to nullify being a *millionaire* very amusing. Next Pat Spin Doctor Hennessey will have attended a "comprehensive [fee paying] " like @Roger did at Millfield.

    Another idiot who thinks the wealthy aren't allowed to be leftwing.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915






    Presumably, that's a YG call and not one that could be influenced by the news agenda desires of the client. It would be interesting to understand why YG did it though.

    Past vote won't be the only factor YouGov use. Survation's last change to their weighting was around household income. Perhaps all the Labour respondents in this sample were millionaires? Or public sector employees?



    Interesting Tom Newton-Dunn's piece on the 20 millionaire's on the Labour front bench. But of course to be a toff one has to be a Tory. Even the Countess' niece and the High Court judge's grandson can't be described as toffs!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Bobajob said:

    Plato said:

    I'm finding the contortions Labourites are going though in an attempt to nullify being a *millionaire* very amusing. Next Pat Spin Doctor Hennessey will have attended a "comprehensive [fee paying] " like @Roger did at Millfield.

    Another idiot who thinks the wealthy aren't allowed to be leftwing.

    Charming as ever I see - Rich Chums Eton Toffs... oh that's Labour's new Dr Spin and lots of their mates.

    Oops.

    Class War bites Labour on the bum in spades.

    Most amusing as your transparent insult shows.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited September 2013
    Recent polls in Italy

    PD 27.3 SEL (Vendola) 4.6% PSI (Socialists) 0.8% Others CL 0.8%
    Monti 5.3% UDC (Christian Democrats) 1.2% Fini 0.3%
    PDL 26.9% Lega 3.8% Brothers of Italy 2.2% The Right 0.6% Others CR 0.8%
    Grillo 20%
    Communists 1.2% Di Pietro 1.1% Greens 0.7%

    PD 28.1 SEL (Vendola) 3.8%
    Monti 5.4%
    PDL 26.9% Lega 5% Brothers of Italy 2.8%
    Grillo 20.4%


  • Plato said:

    I'm finding the contortions Labourites are going though in an attempt to nullify being a *millionaire* very amusing. Next Pat Spin Doctor Hennessey will have attended a "comprehensive [fee paying] " like @Roger did at Millfield.

    There is a big difference between nullify and contextualise. If the value of a primary residence is being taken into account when classifying someone's wealth it means that, for example, a lot of people with low incomes but living mortgage free or light in properties they own are actually very well off. I have no problem with that at all; but the same definitions should apply to one and all, not just to Labour politicians.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "Today’s poll is in fact totally within the margin of error of other YouGov findings this week."

    Yes and no. It's not within the 95% sampling error, but of course the actual margin of error is far more complex. Ergo it could well be within *that second* margin of error, but the only way you can really test that is to assume a particular Labour lead at a given time and work backwards. I'm a busy man at the moment but I'll see if I get an opportunity to do this working backwards (since YouGov's daily polls offer by far the best hope of meaningful analysis - it is not a huge assumption to believe the public don't change their minds day by day every day).
  • Plato - I think Rentoul misses the point that if you confine government spending to only those on the very lowest of income /benefits and still spend over 50% of the national income as the state then you will demoralise very quickly the people who are not rich by any means but provide the most taxation as a group ie people on low to medium salaries who have or have had kids and occasionally want something back from Big State to show for it
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Plato said:

    Bobajob said:

    Plato said:

    I'm finding the contortions Labourites are going though in an attempt to nullify being a *millionaire* very amusing. Next Pat Spin Doctor Hennessey will have attended a "comprehensive [fee paying] " like @Roger did at Millfield.

    Another idiot who thinks the wealthy aren't allowed to be leftwing.

    Charming as ever I see - Rich Chums Eton Toffs... oh that's Labour's new Dr Spin and lots of their mates.

    Oops.

    Class War bites Labour on the bum in spades.

    Most amusing as your transparent insult shows.
    An idiot indeed. I couldn't care less where Hennessy went to school. It doesn't matter. Nor does it matter where Cameron went to school. Why are you so obsessed about it?
  • and latest Italian poll published on Tuersday night

    PD 29.3 SEL (Vendola) 5% Others CL 0.3%
    Monti 3.9% UDC (Christian Democrats) 2.8%
    PDL 27.3% Lega 3.6% Brothers of Italy 2.5% Others CR 1%
    Grillo 20.3%
    Communists 1.1% Di Pietro 0.9%


  • Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes 2m

    I'm going to write today about why Labour people can't stand Lib Dems. I may need some help. Why can't they stand them?
  • Its a little ridiculous and complicated that the state pays (and of course demands you send your kids to school) for free school education and yet won't pay for the extra bit that free school meals costs so we have to go throught this all accounting system of paying and collecting money for it oof parents then create a barrier between kids who get free school meals due to very low family income and those who don't - Its crazy to charge for school meals and thats without even considering the health benefits
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    @isam

    They probably wouldn't know where the boundary was as there is no boundary. Inner and Outer London are clearly defined geographical areas though.

    "From June 2005 new local numbers in London have begun to be allocated with an initial "3" - for example, (020) 3222 1234. Owing to the lingering confusion, people unaware of the correct format are beginning to erroneously assume that there is now a new London code, "0203", and some people confuse this with the dialling code for Coventry (which used to be 0203 prior to PhONEday). Even some newspapers, both local and national, have given this misinformation.[12][13] Some people report mis-dialling of London 3xxx xxxx numbers, where callers are dialling 0207 in front of the local number part instead of just 020. This call connects to the owner of an (020) 73xx xxxx number (in the process, ignoring the final digit actually dialled) instead of to the expected person.
    The geographical significance of the "7" or "8" has been lost with regard to new number issues so that, for example, some newly allocated numbers in central London now begin with an "8"."
  • Plato - I think Rentoul misses the point that if you confine government spending to only those on the very lowest of income /benefits and still spend over 50% of the national income as the state then you will demoralise very quickly the people who are not rich by any means but provide the most taxation as a group ie people on low to medium salaries who have or have had kids and occasionally want something back from Big State to show for it

    He also fails to "get" that clearly there is money left.

    If feeding kids altogether without differentiating between them improves performance and behaviour overall, then the cost of feeding the children of the better off for nothing is far outweighed by the benefits everyone gets from having better educated, better nourished, less disruptive classes in primary schools.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    Bobajob said:

    Plato said:

    Bobajob said:

    Plato said:

    I'm finding the contortions Labourites are going though in an attempt to nullify being a *millionaire* very amusing. Next Pat Spin Doctor Hennessey will have attended a "comprehensive [fee paying] " like @Roger did at Millfield.

    Another idiot who thinks the wealthy aren't allowed to be leftwing.

    Charming as ever I see - Rich Chums Eton Toffs... oh that's Labour's new Dr Spin and lots of their mates.

    Oops.

    Class War bites Labour on the bum in spades.

    Most amusing as your transparent insult shows.
    An idiot indeed. I couldn't care less where Hennessy went to school. It doesn't matter. Nor does it matter where Cameron went to school. Why are you so obsessed about it?
    You might want to have a quiet word with tim about that particular obsession, but of course you won't.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295

    and latest Italian poll published on Tuersday night

    PD 29.3 SEL (Vendola) 5% Others CL 0.3%
    Monti 3.9% UDC (Christian Democrats) 2.8%
    PDL 27.3% Lega 3.6% Brothers of Italy 2.5% Others CR 1%
    Grillo 20.3%
    Communists 1.1% Di Pietro 0.9%


    Andrea, thanks and very interesting, particularly on the continuing strength of Grillo - some time ago weren't there reports that his Parliamentarians were in disarray but that hasn't affected its popularity.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes 2m

    I'm going to write today about why Labour people can't stand Lib Dems. I may need some help. Why can't they stand them?


    I once went to a speech by Collins. Perhaps unsurprisingly he's engaging, and for my money at least*, insightful. His description of the Tories as plumbers as a methaphor for pragmantism is one I'll keep for instance.

    (*I didn't pay to see him, you understand.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,192

    Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes 2m

    I'm going to write today about why Labour people can't stand Lib Dems. I may need some help. Why can't they stand them?

    Well they are liberal. And democrats. What's Labour going to like about that?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT Just been rewatching all of Supernatural and given the number of threads we've had an Scots Indy - this scene made me LOL and cringe.

    The frisbee was superb touch

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0v_YZvbqBc
  • Roger said:

    OT. Following the Dow Jones all time high yesterday could I offer a big thank you to Hunchman for predicting this crash.

    No Hunchman. No Comment


    I believe I'd posted here that I'd advised clients to start buying when FTSE dipped below 5,000 if that's any comfort?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    I hope that Labour doesn't have as many fair minded commentators as Lee Jasper.

    http://order-order.com/2013/09/19/lee-jasper-in-bad-taste-shocker/

    His comments re Kathryn Blair are not his finest moment.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The few, not the many, will be able to get anywhere near Ed Miliband at the Labour Party’s conference dinner in Brighton next week.

    Cost of a table for 10 in a “premium position” at the event: £12,500. Even tables with a less enviable view of the leader are retailing at £6,000 and £3,500.

    Any company – it will mainly be big lobbying firms – that coughs up should be aware that it will have to be named and shamed.

    Individuals or organisations who donate more than £7,500 to the national Labour Party in a calendar year will have their name and the amount published on the Electoral Commission’s website. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10318505/Labour-charge-12500-to-sit-near-Ed-Miliband-at-party-conference-dinner.html
  • ...Public sector workers especially like to forget about pension entitlement in moaning about how poor they are

    With an average pension of £7,800, I think the cash equivalent transfer value at age 60 is about £130,000.

    It's a large sum of money, but it doesn't compare to the wealth some people have in their houses.

    I recently bought out my ex-wife's claim on my pension. On the one hand, this cost me less than £10k. On the other hand, it cost me less than £10k.
  • Some Labour people cannto stand the Lid dems and some labour people don't mind them of course. For those that don't like the lib dems I would say its to do with the lib dems having a leftish outlook on social equality without thinking it has to come from Unions or Big state control of people's lives .
    I am not a liberal democrat as I don't think they are that liberal ,either in social liberalism or economic liberalism but they are obviously more 'liberal' than Labour
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited September 2013
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    Bobajob said:

    Plato said:

    Bobajob said:

    Plato said:

    I'm finding the contortions Labourites are going though in an attempt to nullify being a *millionaire* very amusing. Next Pat Spin Doctor Hennessey will have attended a "comprehensive [fee paying] " like @Roger did at Millfield.

    Another idiot who thinks the wealthy aren't allowed to be leftwing.

    Charming as ever I see - Rich Chums Eton Toffs... oh that's Labour's new Dr Spin and lots of their mates.

    Oops.

    Class War bites Labour on the bum in spades.

    Most amusing as your transparent insult shows.
    An idiot indeed. I couldn't care less where Hennessy went to school. It doesn't matter. Nor does it matter where Cameron went to school. Why are you so obsessed about it?
    You might want to have a quiet word with tim about that particular obsession, but of course you won't.
    The class of the Cameron clique is largely a problem within the Tory Party as we all know.
    The assumption that Cameron promotes from those within his social circle is widespread

    Rather your problem now with twit school Paddy becoming your number two spin merchant, isn't it?
  • Tony Blair's daughter Kathryn held at gunpoint in attempted robbery

    Kathryn Blair was targeted while she was with her boyfriend and friends in Marylebone

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24157161

    Glad she's okay. Apparently there was another attempted mugging half an hour earlier in the same area, also using a gun.

    In which case we've got two rather incompetent muggers who have access to a false or real gun. Incompetence and guns - even fake ones - is not a good combination.
  • ...Public sector workers especially like to forget about pension entitlement in moaning about how poor they are

    With an average pension of £7,800, I think the cash equivalent transfer value at age 60 is about £130,000.

    It's a large sum of money, but it doesn't compare to the wealth some people have in their houses.

    I recently bought out my ex-wife's claim on my pension. On the one hand, this cost me less than £10k. On the other hand, it cost me less than £10k.

    The average pension quote is used a lot by unions to say there is not much difference between private and public pensions but anyone who has been employed in a final benefit scheme for most of there working lives will have a far greater pension that that - Take for example my police friend - He moans about his pay yet will retire in 4 years aged 49 on 2/3rds salary (which isn;t bad at all really) plus a £100,000 one off payment

    It really is a significant asset (why are the unions getting agitated about changes to pensions if not?) If you employ the same criteria to work out the average private pension as the uniosn do to say the avergage public pension isn't that much then I woudl suggest the average private pension is in the low hundreds a year
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    Bobajob said:

    Plato said:

    Bobajob said:

    Plato said:

    I'm finding the contortions Labourites are going though in an attempt to nullify being a *millionaire* very amusing. Next Pat Spin Doctor Hennessey will have attended a "comprehensive [fee paying] " like @Roger did at Millfield.

    Another idiot who thinks the wealthy aren't allowed to be leftwing.

    Charming as ever I see - Rich Chums Eton Toffs... oh that's Labour's new Dr Spin and lots of their mates.

    Oops.

    Class War bites Labour on the bum in spades.

    Most amusing as your transparent insult shows.
    An idiot indeed. I couldn't care less where Hennessy went to school. It doesn't matter. Nor does it matter where Cameron went to school. Why are you so obsessed about it?
    You might want to have a quiet word with tim about that particular obsession, but of course you won't.
    The class of the Cameron clique is largely a problem within the Tory Party as we all know.
    The assumption that Cameron promotes from those within his social circle is widespread

    Rather your problem now with twit school product becoming your number two spin merchant, isn't it?
    Depends if he's any good or not.
    Cameron promotes useless twits simply because of their background.


    Repeat after me, Ed -16, Ed -16. We'll overlook today's YouGov which everyone knows is a bit wonky, but Labour 4-6% ahead with 18 months to go.

    Dave's smiling at you, babe.
  • ...Public sector workers especially like to forget about pension entitlement in moaning about how poor they are

    With an average pension of £7,800, I think the cash equivalent transfer value at age 60 is about £130,000.

    It's a large sum of money, but it doesn't compare to the wealth some people have in their houses.

    I recently bought out my ex-wife's claim on my pension. On the one hand, this cost me less than £10k. On the other hand, it cost me less than £10k.


    For someone in a personal pension to buy an annuity income of £7,800 with inflation linked increases, 50% spouses pension, 3x pension tax free lump sum and at the age of 60.... I'd value that as needing £320,000 in the pension pot... CETV's are not the accurate value to rely on as the age to retirement and assumed investment returns are massive on those.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    @tim, tim, tim - By definition pbTories are smart Tories - that's why we enjoy obscenely expensive cocktails at your expense.
  • tim said:

    Cameron promotes useless twits simply because of their background.

    Hmmm.... Wee-Timmy, are you sure?

    Are you saying that our best Defence-Secretary for a generation - Philip "Lord-of-Spreadsheets" Hammond - was promoted because a) he is a twit, and b) he is working-class?

    I think-not old-bigot. Stop sniffing around Islam-of-Socialism's algorhtyms....
  • ...Public sector workers especially like to forget about pension entitlement in moaning about how poor they are

    With an average pension of £7,800, I think the cash equivalent transfer value at age 60 is about £130,000.

    It's a large sum of money, but it doesn't compare to the wealth some people have in their houses.

    I recently bought out my ex-wife's claim on my pension. On the one hand, this cost me less than £10k. On the other hand, it cost me less than £10k.

    The average pension quote is used a lot by unions to say there is not much difference between private and public pensions but anyone who has been employed in a final benefit scheme for most of there working lives will have a far greater pension that that - Take for example my police friend - He moans about his pay yet will retire in 4 years aged 49 on 2/3rds salary (which isn;t bad at all really) plus a £100,000 one off payment

    It really is a significant asset (why are the unions getting agitated about changes to pensions if not?) If you employ the same criteria to work out the average private pension as the uniosn do to say the avergage public pension isn't that much then I woudl suggest the average private pension is in the low hundreds a year
    The BBC article I got the average pension figure from gave an average private pension figure of about £7,400.

    The difference between the two is indeed in the low hundreds per year.
  • Tim -If the tories are level with labour come May 2015 then I would agree the next PM will be Miliband - Given the trend though and presumably improving economic perfromance I would feel there is a good chance now the PM after 2015 will still be Cameron
  • Sit on the beach, you'll see that the closest point that water from each wave reaches in front of you varies from wave to wave.

    If one reaches your toes, it's best to move your towel back a bit, even if the next one probably won't reach you. If two waves reach you, whereas a while back the nearest they came was thirty yards, then the explanation is that the tide is coming in.
  • re pensions , I just googled the average private pension pot as being £25,000 which would give an indexed annuilty of about £800. Thats presumably an average of the peopel who have a pension scheme , many private sector workers do not have one at all . NEarly all public sector workers do and are in defined benefit schemes . There really is no comparison at all between public and private pension provision that remotely equatesd to equality .

    Now I say fair enough go and work for the poublic sector if you want that pension but itsdisnohest of unions esepcially to basically hide this massive benefit and pretend somehow the public sector is hard done to in pay and conditions
  • Sit on the beach, you'll see that the closest point that water from each wave reaches in front of you varies from wave to wave.

    If one reaches your toes, it's best to move your towel back a bit, even if the next one probably won't reach you. If two waves reach you, whereas a while back the nearest they came was thirty yards, then the explanation is that the tide is coming in.

    Then it goes out again.

  • percival_snooperpercival_snooper Posts: 1
    edited September 2013
    more signs of a recovery from Inside Housing.

    "David Cowans, chief executive of 81,566-home Places for People Group, tops Inside Housing’s exclusive chief executive salary survey, published tomorrow.

    Mr Cowans’ total salary hit a staggering £378,874 in 2012/13 and included a £106,979 bonus.

    Housing association chief executives’ salaries were generally on the rise in 2012/13. The average total salary received by the heads of the UK’s 100 largest organisations in terms of the number of homes they own and manage, was £167,587, up 2.7 per cent on 2011/12.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295

    Sit on the beach, you'll see that the closest point that water from each wave reaches in front of you varies from wave to wave.

    If one reaches your toes, it's best to move your towel back a bit, even if the next one probably won't reach you. If two waves reach you, whereas a while back the nearest they came was thirty yards, then the explanation is that the tide is coming in.

    Then it goes out again.

    After you've drowned.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Sit on the beach, you'll see that the closest point that water from each wave reaches in front of you varies from wave to wave.

    If one reaches your toes, it's best to move your towel back a bit, even if the next one probably won't reach you. If two waves reach you, whereas a while back the nearest they came was thirty yards, then the explanation is that the tide is coming in.

    Then it goes out again.

    Question is whether that's before or after the election.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Sit on the beach, you'll see that the closest point that water from each wave reaches in front of you varies from wave to wave.

    If one reaches your toes, it's best to move your towel back a bit, even if the next one probably won't reach you. If two waves reach you, whereas a while back the nearest they came was thirty yards, then the explanation is that the tide is coming in.

    I'm sure someone will correct me - but I thought it was every 7th wave that was the largest in a tide?
  • more signs of a recovery from Inside Housing.

    "David Cowans, chief executive of 81,566-home Places for People Group, tops Inside Housing’s exclusive chief executive salary survey, published tomorrow.

    Mr Cowans’ total salary hit a staggering £378,874 in 2012/13 and included a £106,979 bonus.

    Housing association chief executives’ salaries were generally on the rise in 2012/13. The average total salary received by the heads of the UK’s 100 largest organisations in terms of the number of homes they own and manage, was £167,587, up 2.7 per cent on 2011/12.

    The UK really has been captured by a new rentier class of administrators who pay themselves ludicrous amounts of money.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Bugger

    Gavan Reilly @gavreilly
    BREAKING: Ireland officially out of recession, according to the CSO - GDP up 0.4% in second quarter of 2013, but down 1.2% year-on-year
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,847
    edited September 2013

    Tim -If the tories are level with labour come May 2015 then I would agree the next PM will be Miliband - Given the trend though and presumably improving economic perfromance I would feel there is a good chance now the PM after 2015 will still be Cameron

    There's still plenty of time for the trend to swing back towards Labour, even before parity with the Conservatives is reached.

    With the Scottish Independence vote next year, we're probably heading into the most portentous couple of years in British politics for some time.

    Leaving aside the Scottish vote, a Labour majority in 2015 will be a heavy bodyblow to the Conservatives. A Conservative majority would be likewise, and perhaps even worse, for Labour. A second coalition will change the way we see politics in the future - and the end of single-party government.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited September 2013
    You Gov monthly average polling, Jan to Sep this year

    Con, 32.41, 31.65, 30.50, 31.19, 29.76, 31.00, 32.43, 32.89, 33.23

    Lab, 42.64, 42.60, 40.95, 40.43, 39.24, 39.05, 38.96, 38.58, 38.00

    LD, 10.59, 10.95, 11.40, 10.71, 10.00, 10.15, 10.22, 9.84, 9.23

    UKIP, 8.73, 9.05, 11.55, 11.62, 14.33, 13.10, 11.78, 11.84, 12.38

    Lab Lead, 10.23, 10.95, 10.45, 9.24, 9.48, 8.05, 6.52, 5.68, 4.77

    So changes from Jan this year to Sep

    Con plus 0.82

    Lab minus 4.64

    LD minus 1.36

    UKIP plus 3.65

    Lab lead minus 5.46
  • @TSE - The key thing to note is that the Labour lead has been steadily falling, by about 1 point per month, for the last five months. No guarantees that will continue, of course, but it's a marked trend.
  • @TSE - The key thing to note is that the Labour lead has been steadily falling, by about 1 point per month, for the last five months. No guarantees that will continue, of course, but it's a marked trend.

    Agreed and UKIP hurting Labour?

    I did something analysis in May with the phone pollsters, that showed something similar

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/29/polling-averages-and-changes-with-the-phone-pollsters-since-january/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    I'm not sure there is any evidence that the result of the Scottish referendum will have much influence on VI outside Scotland.

  • What a strange poll,Labour with an 8 point unweighted lead, Tories leading amongst women and the young?! Also what good timing,just before the Brighton conference.I wonder if the reverse will apply before the Tory conference?

    Neck and neck for no reason, my disbelief needs a lot of suspension in order to take this one seriously. Good old Sun, always coming good for the Tories. Flexible weighting is a marvellous Crosbian tool. Where is Kellner in all this? However even this poll leaves Labour as the largest party.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    OT

    @Plato

    Fracking on ITV tonight at 7.30pm-8pm.
    May be a bit superficial though.

    Also Mail 4 U
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited September 2013
    The BBC article I got the average pension figure from gave an average private pension figure of about £7,400.
    The difference between the two is indeed in the low hundreds per year.


    Source please !!

    I'm always hearing in my business the average private pension pot to buy an income is only £30,000 or so, that would get you maybe £1,000pa tops with these escalationa and spouse features. Unless someone has 10 such pots then there's no way they are similar...
  • What a strange poll,Labour with an 8 point unweighted lead, Tories leading amongst women and the young?! Also what good timing,just before the Brighton conference.I wonder if the reverse will apply before the Tory conference?

    Neck and neck for no reason, my disbelief needs a lot of suspension in order to take this one seriously. Good old Sun, always coming good for the Tories. Flexible weighting is a marvellous Crosbian tool. Where is Kellner in all this? However even this poll leaves Labour as the largest party.

    It's not a poll by the Sun, it's a poll by YouGov. They're not going to mess with it.

    You can always find WTFs in the weighting and the subsamples and things in any poll if you look for them.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    tim said:

    Plato said:

    RT @DJack_Journo: Fancy that! Ed Miliband has richest Labour top table ever with 20 millionaires, writes @tnewtondunn ow.ly/i/3bIh9

    Depends on how you define millionaire, of course. If you include a primary place of residence then many people who houses in the 0207 area of London would be classed as one, as would uite a few who own a sizeable property in the SE of England, especially if it comes with a bit of land. If you exclude primary home ownership, then the pool gets much smaller.

    With 10% house price inflation in London anyone who bought a four bedroomed house in the right area twenty years ago will find themselves on that list.

    Indeed - I know a fair few people who bought their Victorian council houses back in the 80s and 90s and who, according to the Sun, would now be classed as millionaires - even though they may be on average London wages and are not in a position to realise their asset without making themselves homeless. However, if primary property is to be included in a net wealth assessment no-one who owns a home in the home counties, Sussex, Hampshire etc could be classed as anything other than comfortably off.

    I seem to remember someone calculating that Milibands "substantial inheritance" was one fifth of a house in North London, worth around £60k at the time.

    As a comment on the madness of the London property market the Sun are doing everyone a favour by highlighting it, although sadly it seems half their readership on here won't understand the article.

    tim are you suggesting that £60K is not a substantial amount of money? How the Labour elite are disconnected from the lives or ordinary people!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    £100k pension pot would be lucky to earn you £5k per annum depending on your age and if you want it to rise.

    Details here:

    http://www.sharingpensions.co.uk/annuity_rates.htm

    No wonder public sector types are laughing all the way to the French retirement cottage.
  • Charles said:



    tim are you suggesting that £60K is not a substantial amount of money? How the Labour elite are disconnected from the lives or ordinary people!

    £60K, at the time. I wonder when that was? In the early 80s, for example, you could get a good house for that, even in the smoke
  • Stuart Dickson unaccountably left out this bit of Scottish referendum news:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/18/scottish-independence-spending-cut-warning-thinktank

    "Alex Salmond's hopes of inspiring Scotland's voters to embrace independence a year before the 2014 referendum suffered a blow when a thinktank warned he would need to cut billions from public spending immediately after leaving the UK in order to balance the books.

    The report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies said Scotland's high levels of public spending – 17% above the UK average at £7,932 – would neutralise the benefits of North Sea oil and gas revenues flowing into an independent Scotland's treasury, leaving it facing a 15% cut in spending.

    If Scotland were to meet the current targets to cut its debts, it would need spending cuts of £2.4bn over the first two years after elections to an independent parliament in 2016.

    If Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) projections about falling oil revenues were correct, it would face further cuts of £3.5bn."
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited September 2013
    SeanT said:

    Look at the full figures in the Yougov poll
    Before weighting Con 455 voters Labour 549
    After weighting Con 507 voters Labour 507

    very neatly done to change a Labour lead of 8% into a dead heat

    And bingo!

    I make you the third lefty in a row to claim that in some way three different pollsters are LYING when they've produced these recent results which are unhappy for Labour. We've had claims that IPSOS-MORI "don't know how to poll", another leftwing 20watt said something similar about ICM a few weeks back.

    Don't know about you, but I see a meta-trend here. You can dismiss one leftie freaking out about an unfriendly poll as a rogue, but when you get THREE...

    The Left is now officially Worried.
    One of the benefits of pollsters having to publish their full data tables is that the intelligent student of politics ( that clearly excludes you ) can look at the data and weightings and spot and highlight the differences from poll to poll and pollster to pollster . I will wait in vain for an analysis from you justifying the heavy pro Conservative weighting in this particular poll compared to yesterday's or the day before's .
  • SeanT said:

    Look at the full figures in the Yougov poll
    Before weighting Con 455 voters Labour 549
    After weighting Con 507 voters Labour 507

    very neatly done to change a Labour lead of 8% into a dead heat

    And bingo!

    I make you the third lefty in a row to claim that in some way three different pollsters are LYING when they've produced these recent results which are unhappy for Labour. We've had claims that IPSOS-MORI "don't know how to poll", another leftwing 20watt said something similar about ICM a few weeks back.

    Don't know about you, but I see a meta-trend here. You can dismiss one leftie freaking out about an unfriendly poll as a rogue, but when you get THREE...

    The Left is now officially Worried.
    One of the benefits of pollsters having to publish their full data tables is that the intelligent student of politics ( that clearly excludes you ) can look at the data and weightings and spot and highlight the differences from poll to poll and pollster to pollster . I will wait in vain for an analysis from you justifying the heavy pro Conservative weighting in this particular poll compared to yesterday's or the day before's .
    True, but there are so many details you can pick up on that this process is very prone to confirmation bias, especially if you strongly prefer one outcome or another.
  • SeanT

    The use of the word "leftard" is unacceptable
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Where's Balls?

    Tory Treasury @ToryTreasury
    CBI Industrial Trends encouraging for manufacturing: orders highest since 2007 and expectations highest since 1995 cbi.org.uk/media-centre/p…
  • F1: not a tip (...yet) but considering backing No Safety Car at 1.28. I do loathe short odds bets, but there's a 100% record (over 5 races) of one appearing in Singapore. The mitigating factor might be that the dreadful chicane has been replaced with a corner... but even so, it's tempting.

    Hmm. I wonder if there would've been a safety car if Nelson Piquet Junior hadn't 'crashed' a few years ago.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited September 2013
    Plato said:

    Bugger

    Gavan Reilly @gavreilly
    BREAKING: Ireland officially out of recession, according to the CSO - GDP up 0.4% in second quarter of 2013, but down 1.2% year-on-year

    Most people struggle to define a recession. If we follow a fools-path then Ireland has suffered a mulit-dip recession. Sadly we do understand what a recession is and the Oirish do not have Steph' Flanders - as an excuse - to justify peoples' ignorance....
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT

    The use of the word "leftard" is unacceptable

    Then I will think of something nastier.
    If I was to be mischievous, I might suggest a play on 'larboards' or 'sinistrals'

    But I'm not mischievous ...
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    Anyon know what the retails sales figure for the UK that were released to day. Usually they are splashed across here the minute they are announced.
  • F1: not a tip (...yet) but considering backing No Safety Car at 1.28. I do loathe short odds bets, but there's a 100% record (over 5 races) of one appearing in Singapore. The mitigating factor might be that the dreadful chicane has been replaced with a corner... but even so, it's tempting.

    Hmm. I wonder if there would've been a safety car if Nelson Piquet Junior hadn't 'crashed' a few years ago.

    To be fair, there's no reason for 'crash' to appear in quotes. After all, Nelson Piquet Junior did crash. Now if you'd said 'accident' ... :-)

    One of the murkiest moments in F1's recent past.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    SeanT said:

    SeanT

    The use of the word "leftard" is unacceptable

    Then I will think of something nastier.
    More "sinister", haha.

    ...

    I'll get my coat.
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    edited September 2013
    tim said:

    RedRag1 said:

    Anyon know what the retails sales figure for the UK that were released to day. Usually they are splashed across here the minute they are announced.

    "Retail sales volumes fell 0.9% in August according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) - a surprise for analysts who had expected a rise of around 0.4%."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24156664

    Lots of weather and Olympics related stuff in there, but no splash of them over here from the usual suspects as you say.
    Now I see why they were given the bums rush. Information like this is filed with the not good for Tory polls file, under I for Ignore.
  • More for the Ed is Crap brigade

    Just 1.79% of 2010 Tory voters are planning to vote for Labour

    But 5.36% of 2010 Lab voters are planning to vote Tory
  • SeanT said:

    Then I will think of something nastier.

    Leif-turds? Re-tyred-Eds? Un-sectioned...?

    Open field! Even for a semi-glot like moi....
This discussion has been closed.