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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Labour prepares for its conference today’s YouGov reports that the party’s lead has been wiped out
Whenever you get a poll that is out of the ordinary you have to treat the findings with some scepticism and today’s YouGov poll for the Sun is no exception.
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http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-shuts-down-climate-commission-20130919-2u185.html
There is a bigger dynamic going on here that Westminster goldfish bowl commentators seem blissfully ignorant of.
However, if we set aside entertaining YouGov polls, and I'm afraid that we must for the time being, this is actually the biggest English political story of this parliamentary term so far. A truly stunning state of affairs if true.
'Conservative party membership has nearly halved throughout Cameron’s premiership'
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/conservative-party-membership-has-nearly-halved-throughout-david-camerons-premiership/
To put things in perspective, the Specatator should really have pointed out for its readers that, against trend, both the SNP and UKIP are growing. Fast.
Further the two internals asked show bug jumps in favour of the govt, suggesting as Nick Palmer would put it a "Tory leaning" panel:
Net approval: -21 (+5)
Net support for coalition: -22 (+15)
That said, the big jump in coalition support is from within the Coalition (Con +27, LibD +13), so there may be something else going on.....
However, in terms of the media narrative......
2010 LD voters are split:
Cons: 14
LAB: 30
LD: 35
UKIP: 12
Green: 6
Nats: 2
Others: 2
"Must be careful not to overreact to one poll showing what might be true had George Osborne not cost the Tories 18 months with his incompetence."
You're quite right Tim. But I'm not sure that today's story is George Osborne.
But even if we assuming today's poll is an outlier, if we're looking at "cost", what has cost Labour a normal opposition mid-term lead?
It's probably an outlier. But if it's an outlier, then it only reflects a 3 to 4 % lead.
What cost Labour 10% off it's lead in a year ?
FPT - “I've felt for a while that Ed's Labour was a pig in a poke and other than the well known antipathy to the Conservatives I couldn't see any logical reason why Labour's vote was holding up.
After blowing his golden chance after the Syria vote all seemed hopeless. It became all too obvious that Labour had chosen a lemon.”
Panelbase/Sunday Times
Scottish Parliament voting intention
Sample size: 1002
Fieldwork: 30 August – 5 September 2013
Constituency vote (FPTP):
SNP 45%
Lab 32%
Con 12%
LD 5%
Grn 2%
oth 4%
List vote (PR):
SNP 46%
Lab 28%
Con 12%
Grn 6%
LD 4%
oth 4%
The poll is almost certainly an outlier and will no doubt be "corrected" by the next one but it is as bad a poll for the Lib Dems as it is for Labour. It is an important part of the tory victory strategy that the Lib Dems get at least 5% back from Labour by the election and I am getting slightly concerned that there is no sign of that happening. No sign at all. Labour are very slowly losing support but not to the Lib Dems.
Orwell predicts the future of the Labour party and, sadly, all our politics in 1945.
I'll wager it won't be so many days until the next outlier like this one?
Anyone want to bet it will?
Considering that - with 95% confidence - one-in-twenty samples (based upon a reasonable population) will be an outlier this whole YouGov gazing is pointless. For YouGov to collect such data requires four weeks and, as with any time-series, much of it may well be out-of-date.
Yet the obsession exists: It is mainly the left pokeing when they are down and fibrillating when they are up. The problem is - as any fule knows - that the time-series cannot predict when nor where the outlier exists. Today's YouGov looks absurd but it is the most recent: Against which historical survey should it be weighed (or weighted) against.
So another day and the usual rant-fests. I doubt anyone cognisant - that excludes the Soho Sewer-rat and :tumbleweed: - is no better informed....
Thanks to Simon St Claire for Roger's nice quote
"After blowing his golden chance after the Syria vote all seemed hopeless. It became all too obvious that Labour had chosen a lemon.”
Topic for today.
Not Osborne not omnishambles.
But feel free to to disagree. Perhaps there are other causes for Labour's poor polling.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/07/16/are-labour-and-tories-really-level-pegging/
So Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper join the ranks of the super rich by ....buying a four bedroomed house in Stoke Newington.
Just as Orwell predicted.
LOL.
Is that a house liable to a Lib Dem Mansion Tax then?
Well actually both. We have such a plethora of VI polls that as the Labour leads narrows we will see outliers at the forefront of the trend.
My ARSE predicts that we shall see more of these outlier trend polls to the stage where the trend is set clearly and Labour leads eventually become the outlier. The crossover will be muddied by the Euro election next year but will revert to type within months.
The latest ARSE 2015 GE prediction issued on 10 Sep indicates :
Con 306 .. Lab 268 .. LibDem 40 .. Others 36
The tories always had tendencies that way although you think back to Maggie and John Major who weren't. For Labour it is unquestionably a major part of the Blair legacy. If our politics is to engage more people it needs a broader range of voice.
Just as Orwell predicted.
LOL.
Is that a house liable to a Lib Dem Mansion Tax then?
So much for a LibDem/Lab coalition then?
Tut-tut-tut! You forgot about their special "married-couple allowance" that they screwed the English tax-payer for...!
:naughty-naughty:
I'd have thought it has as much to do with professional politician syndrome, where they stuffed their boots with cash in the noughties through claiming for everything, swapping houses and building a property portfolio. When all your costs are being paid your salary is just pure disposable income. The Balls household had an income of £600k if memory serves me right on the expenses scandal.
I would add of course this is not just a Labour issue it covers all parties and the longer an MP is in the system the better off they are.
Point of order - there is no such thing as the "0207" area of London. The code for London is simply 020 and the 7s and 8s are part of the actual number. We have leading threes and all sorts now and the old 0171 0181 boundaries were blurred long ago.
The idea that London has two phone codes is a myth. It has just one: 020.
The fact they have personally done rather well out of the housing policies you have been ranting against on here for some months is, of course, a pure coincidence.
That however would be a very warped and unfair thought.... certainly not one to bet on!
And by the way, Ladbrokes are by far the best bookie when it comes to allowing high stakes. 4p? Aye right.
OK, if they only have exactly £1 million, pack in their job and use some of the money for living expenses then they will not be.
Simply put a few hundred quid doesn't interest me but others may take a different view and my ARSE doesn't reflect my personal betting strategy rather it's an organ for PBers to handle as they see fit.
However MPs most of them weren't lucky Londoners they came to the city on the back of election and became millionaires through taxpayer subsidies for their housing portfolios. And that's not a party political issues it's politicians v the rest.
(Lots of LibDem ministers on telly has boosted the government, and the main party of government is the Conservatives.)
With 10% house price inflation in London anyone who bought a four bedroomed house in the right area twenty years ago will find themselves on that list.
Indeed - I know a fair few people who bought their Victorian council houses back in the 80s
And they will then not be millionaires.
Why not? With a £300K house, and £700K in savings, plus what additional funds they had.
OK, if they only have exactly £1 million, pack in their job and use some of the money for living expenses then they will not be.
I can understand an argument that defines a millionaire as someone who earns £1m per annum but asset millionaires will be increasingly common. It makes no difference if the asset is held £1m in cash or in some other form, that's the millionaire's choice.
The key word there is asset. Ed is certainly an asset millionaire. As are many, many people in this country; including a fair number of PB posters who perhaps might not class themselves as being very well off. But if you own your own home in the south of England or even the midlands and have a relatively small, or no, mortgage, you are a member of the financial elite and have no right to moan about anything, as you can always move to Hartlepool and live the life of Reilly!
Just a random thoughtlet but I feel that the overall value of party conferences is much more limited that prior to the 24hour news cycle era we now enjoy.
Roger is half right FPT. The crucial question is what EdM says to Lab=>LD switchers.
There is no compelling reason to return. Tories were wrong? Um, no they weren't, we are in the middle of a recovery. Wrong sort of recovery? Too nuanced. Living standards fallen? Firmer ground but wait for the bribes.
Oh and tim the issue about the Millibands' house is not the value of the inheritance but the fact that they used a deed of variation, a perfectly sensible (and of course) legal structure designed to avoid tax. At the same time as berating tax avoiders.
That said, we all need to keep cool during the conference season - it always produces interesting effects but they tend to cancel out.
Before weighting Con 455 voters Labour 549
After weighting Con 507 voters Labour 507
very neatly done to change a Labour lead of 8% into a dead heat
Had Paddy H slipped one through in a nom de plume?
With 10% house in the right area twenty years ago will find themselves on that list.
Indeed - I know a fair back in the 80s
And they will then not be millionaires.
Why not? funds they had.
OK, if they only have exactly £1 million, pack in their job and use some of the money for living expenses then they will not be.
I can ue if the asset is held £1m in cash or in some other form, that's the millionaire's choice.
The key word there is asset. Ed is certainly an asset millionaire. As are many, many people in this country; including a fair number of PB posters who perhaps might not class themselves as being very well off. But if you own your own home in the south of England or even the midlands and have a relatively small, or no, mortgage, you are a member of the financial elite and have no right to moan about anything, as you can always move to Hartlepool and live the life of Reilly!
Ed is also more than just an asset millionaire, his family is well off in their own right, Ed earns a 6 figure salary as does his wife these are not poor people.
And yes if you own a large house outright then you are also well off but with your assets tied up in bricks and mortar. There is nothing stopping you moving to Hartlepool or picking up a cheap place in Spain, it's your choice. A fair few people do take that option by selling up and downsizing for retirement or occasionally selling a flat in London to buy a house elsewhere to raise a family.
Quite surprised by this poll. However, given the bounceyness of such things around conference season and the fact the Lib Dems have just had theirs (and probably got a few percentage points from Labour) I don't think it means all that much really.
F1: McLaren haven't confirmed their lineup for next year. Some suggest Di Resta may be off there:
http://www.espn.co.uk/mclaren/motorsport/story/125485.html
Personally, I'd be surprised if McLaren got rid of Button. With massive regulation changes next year an old hand (who is still outscoring his team mate by a sizeable margin) would probably be very handy to have.
To date, without reading every word spoken at the Conferences, the TUC are still living in the early 20thC, demanding better wages and benefits for their clients (as they should) but have not faced reality. The LDs are fighting for survival and so are not able to lift their eyes unto the Horizon of Mankind on this quite small planet.
The UK has over-priced labour in the world marketplace and so is unable to compete with the emerging economic powerhouses. The only way it can compete is by technical innovation and at the same time being self-sufficient in food and energy. Unfortunately, technical innovation and especially in the world of IT is not a large employer. So what will we do with the growing army of unemployed and unemployable as well as the growing number of graduates who cannot find a job relevant to their qualification. (Our office cleaner, from Poland, has a Masters in biology, but has settled for, in her words, "a simple life."
The Crick-Watson discovery of the DNA molecule to the later development of the DNA code in 1966, has revolutionised criminology and is on the brink of discovering not only the causes but the prevention of diseases like cancer, and cell-replacement technology. So does the future beckon for extremely long lives and how will we cope with a rapidly growing population or will there be a scheduled lifetime according to a person's usefulness on earth, to make room for the new born - or will we stop procreation and and a certain few live a timeless existence served by robotic/slaves?
I expect that none of the above will be mentioned by either Labour or the Cons - both having eyes only for 2015.
"Look at the full figures in the Yougov poll
Before weighting Con 455 voters Labour 549
After weighting Con 507 voters Labour 507
very neatly done to change a Labour lead of 8% into a dead heat"
Are you suggesting skulduggery?
Indeed this causes a problem in other parts of the country where once affordable family homes are being snatched up by "wealthy" southerners pricing locals out of the market.
A nice 3-4 bedroom house in Dunbar (easy commute to Edinburgh - 30 mins on the train) will set you back ~£200k - £250k... a nice lump-sum if your London property is priced in excess of a mil. But not really affordable for an average family.
Don't even get me started about the cost of property in the Capital. The New Town is basically little Chelsea.
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/Cambridge-UKIP-candidate-David-Kendricks-role-in-horse-racing-betting-scam-revealed-20130919060500.htm
"The businessman selected as UKIP’s parliamentary candidate for Cambridge was banned from horse racing for four years for his role in a betting scam, it emerged last night.
David Kendrick, a member of Shepreth Parish Council, was linked to a group who laid bets on horse races using inside information, colluding with owners and jockeys who had deliberately ridden horses to lose."
Are you saying that people with foreign surnames should not have a say in UK politics? I know that Labour have had issues with your issues with women in the North-West but are you really Phil Woollas in disguise...?
:discloure:
My surname - via a foreign tongue - is a derivative of Mohammed.
My thoughts from it:
Yes seemed to be predominant
Lib Dems Booed over Royal Mail
Still a fair few to make their mind up but they are not so inclined to NO
Tories were just laughed at
SNP & Green representatives were miles better than Tory and Lib Dems
Looks far from what YouGov etc keep telling us
"Yesterdays figures were
Before weighting Con 445 voters Labour 506
After weighting Con 448 voters Labour 501"
Shouldn't Peter Kellner be hauled infront of the PB Star Chamber to explain this somewhat bizarre inconsistency?
The tightening of the polls might just help Ed during the conference. He's going nowhere, so the delegates might remember the saying about "hanging together or hanging separately".
Expect orgasms over his speech and lots of supportive guff about anything that has even a tiny piece of policy. Sniping will be off the agenda for a week.
Or am I being too logical?.
In principle there's nothing wrong with this, but it should induce a certain wariness in over-interpretation.
(Edit: parish notices
OGH, glad to hear you're okay. Sounds like it was a lucky escape.
Sunil: hope everything went well. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
)
http://www.spectator.co.uk/spectator-life/spectator-life-life/9022871/socialist-climbing/
"Revealed: Ed Miliband's Bollinger bolsheviks"
Despite the class-war rhetoric, Labour’s elite is still intensely comfortable with being filthy rich — and it’s becoming ever more so"
No Hunchman. No Comment
EDIT: and now it's 6/5. Good to see some of you are tucking in.
The BHA could (and did) impose the maximum penalty that they were empowered to do...a ban from their race-courses. For someone who never went racing, less than the value of a parking fine. I didn’t defend myself, because spending 12 days in court for avoiding the equivalent penalty of say, 1 point on my driving licence, was an inefficient use of my time. I am sure that the case against me would have been thrown out, especially had I spent an equivalent amount of money on legal assistance as did the BHA
Doubtless, it will excite the whiter-than-white brigade.
"Revealed: Ed Miliband's Bollinger bolsheviks"
Despite the class-war rhetoric, Labour’s elite is still intensely comfortable with being filthy rich — and it’s becoming ever more so" "
That was before we met 'Hunchman'
"Big Issue" anyone......
"David Kendrick, a member of Shepreth Parish Council, was linked to a group who laid bets on horse races using inside information, colluding with owners and jockeys who had deliberately ridden horses to lose.""
True or Tory dirty tricks?
Are there any 0208s in central London and vice versa?
http://www.royston-crow.co.uk/news/parish_councillor_defends_role_in_betting_scandal_1_1169338
Mr Kendrick I do feel a lot of sympathy and I like your attitude to it all. Unfortunately if you get into the bed of politics which is full of dogs with fleas, you will have a high chance of catching some.
"Labour candidate was under fire today for performing a Nazi salute while speaking at a students’ debate.
Daniel Zeichner, 53, was appearing at the Cambridge University Union to discuss whether the Conservatives were ready to return to power.
During his speech, when he accused the Tories of associating with ‘fascists’ such as the Polish Law and Justice Party, he made the ‘Heil Hitler’ salute."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1268389/Labour-candidate-performing-Nazi-salute-Cambridge-University-debate.html
Could turn into an "entertaining" race
It is possible that UKIP are becoming a realistic alternative for those Labour voters pissed off about immigration, in the way that the Tories could never be, for various cultural and historical reasons.
Next year's local elections in the Metropolitian boroughs could be very interesting.
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/3947498
I know there are some Apple fans on here (you fools!), so some of you might like this Guardian article on Apple's move to a 64-bit processor architecture on IOS.
A fair warning: it was written by techies (actually, ex-colleagues of mine) who know the ARM chipset in a rather worryingly intimate way.
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/sep/18/iphone-5s-apple-a7-chip-64-bit-explained
And an Anandtech review on the new iPhone 5S, which uses the new architecture. Apparently it's fast. Very fast.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/7335/the-iphone-5s-review/5
No doubt Labour will regain the lead soon, maybe tomorrow, but the pre-conference season polls did reveal a trend and it will interesting to see if that continues after the shindigs are over.
Fair enough, I knew there were 0203s.
To be fair to @SouthamObserver, most people who have livedor worked in London over the last twenty years would know what he meant by the 0207 part of London
For example, if you look at all the YouGov polls in May, then the outlier most in the Conservatives favour still had them 6% behind. That's quite a shift in four months.
This is one of the advantages of the daily YouGov polling - it becomes clear which polls are outliers with only a little hindsight. With a monthly poll - such as from ICM - it is much harder to discriminate between real shifts in opinion and statistical outliers.
Still won't make me get a 5s yet, still v happy with my 5.
Upgraded to iOS7 last night. MUCH better than iOS6. Some really nice features.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-crisis-rebels-turn-on-each-other-in-border-city-of-azaz-8825052.html
I'm mildly surprised that Gulf states are reportedly shipping weapons to ISIS rather than the FSA. Depends which countries, of course, but several (Qatar, Bahrain etc) would seem to be of the pro-Western sort, and the most anti-Western country (Iran) is clearly in Assad's corner.