politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57%
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57% chance of the UK leaving the EU on time
Betdata.io
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/979274614705721345?s=21
' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.
According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '
http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half
As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:
https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs
We've built the fallout shelter just waiting for the bomb to fall.
I've worked out our plan for relocation of jobs to Germany.
Plus those banking jobs you've linked to weren't the jobs at risk from Brexit.
Though those jobs will likely to go even if we had Remained, the profile of retail banking has changed with less and less foot traffic into branches.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.” '
https://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
24.6.16
Just frinstance.
As in the previous survey, most respondents said bigger moves could be in store in a decade or more, however.
“I doubt there will be a mass migration overnight, but my guess is in 5, if not 10 years, London will be down quite a lot,” said one executive at a large U.S. bank, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press.
“London was the only game in town, at least in Europe, and now it won’t be.”
But one thing is for sure, namely there's many an 'expert' who has been shown to know a lot less than they thought they did.
As to London banking jobs generally I fear there will be increasing problems over the next few decades - can high cost jobs in a high cost location add enough value to compete against cheaper and 'hungrier' alternatives in a globalised and increasingly computerised world economy ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html
https://fullfact.org/economy/10000-finance-jobs-lost-since-brexit/
Of course the guess could prove to be right, but it was still a guess to start off with.
However political and economic gravity kicks.
UK firms have over 300,000 financial passports which shakes out to somewhere to £25-£30 billion in financial service exports to the rest of the EU.
Lose those passporting rights and a lot of those jobs will have to relocated to inside the EU.
We're hoping for equivalence but our industry had meetings with David Davis, DExEU, Liam Fox, and the International Trade Department, those idiots couldn't find a cup of water if you dropped them into the Atlantic Ocean.
It pains me to say this but Michel Barnier and Germany have got a better understanding on financial services than our own government.
Likewise all those 'experts' who predicted that the Euro would lead to economic and political stability within the EU.
I rather suspect that 'experts' have a good track record in predicting what they have a vested interest in happening.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/03/29/labour-quietly-reinstated-six-councillors-posted-anti-semitic/
Told you that Labour have been quietly reinstating people
The ministers really do believe their own spin/hype.
The hope is they end up capitulating on financial services like they did on so many other areas of Brexit.
Its amazing to me that after the last few years that people still are willing to make 100% predictions.
And on a betting associated site as well.
James Taylor: Steve Smith and David Warner used to mock opponents — many will feel it is cricket karma
I was playing for England against Australia in a one-day international in Sydney and I had just been dismissed for a second-ball duck, lbw to Mitchell Starc. As I was walking off, head down, David Warner charged over and screamed abuse in my face.
I don’t need to repeat what he said, but that story from 2015 is enough to explain why a lot of cricketers around the world have little or no sympathy after hearing Warner had been suspended for 12 months. Many of them will feel this is a classic case of cricketing karma. As soon as you get personal on the field, you will find yourself with enemies.
https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/cricket/james-taylor-steve-smith-and-david-warner-used-to-mock-opponents-many-will-feel-it-is-cricket-karma-a3802306.html
I expect that the effect of Brexit will not be a bang, but a whimper. It will only be seen for what is is in retrospect. It will be not a catastrophe, just a bit crap, and a milestone in our steady decline.
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/979464466625695744?s=21
Also...the pros know...it wasn't just bruiser Warner and poor naive Bancroft...
When I played for England, it was inconceivable that anything would happen to the ball without Jimmy Anderson or Stuart Broad knowing about it. They would be on top of the fielders all the time — don’t get sweat on the ball, don’t get sun cream on it, keep one side dry.
That is my experience of playing with some test cricketers, as a young man I often used to get more grief from my own teams bowlers than the opposition if I messed up when handling the ball.
We know that Olly Letwin did when he handed over the final millions to Kids Company but how many other specific examples are there.
2) Congratulations
Good evening, everyone.
I have been married 28 years, and there have certainly been bad patches, but I am glad I stuck it out.
He clearly didn't do any sort of risk / reward analysis beforehand.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/979471364489928705
Arguably the greatest action movie ever made, and now the greatest Christmas movie ever made, too. Bruce Willis’ John McClane may seem like an unlikely Santa Claus – he doesn’t have enough hair for one – but what better Christmas present is there than the gift of terrorists getting taken down as they try to take Nakatomi Plaza hostage during a Christmas party in order to carry out an elaborate theft? Not for Empire readers the cutesy Christmas trees of other Christmas movies, or the sight of people in ill-advised knitwear drinking eggnog. For you guys, nothing says deck the halls like jumping off a roof tied to a fire hose, and nothing says season of goodwill like a machine gun. Ho ho ho.
Oh sorry, were we supposed to be cheering you up
(ps I am sorry to hear about the split. Life gets shitty sometimes - as I know too well - so good luck and soldier on)
Make sure you remember all the good times you had together but probably better to end things now and remain on good terms than let things escalate negatively to mutual damage.
There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
Also, does the story even say who has labelled them the unacceptable faces of capitalism? I imagine it is easy to label pretty much anyone as such.
'that means Craig Overton misses out and England will have the tail of a diplodocus.'
The Daily Mail is going to end up way to the left of me pretty soon and then my feelings are just going to become very confused.
@SeanT
Onwards and upwards, plenty more fish and other meaningless phrases
As link text. Paywalled.
All its Remainers tell us that they've been proved right by events since the referendum.
Whereas the official Remainers from Cameron downwards were all proved wrong.
I know Wood is quicker than he looks, but I don't think the batsman really fear him. England continually struggle that once the shine has gone, batsman have got 20 or so, they look totally ineffective.
They don’t take a salary but instead get a cut of the profits from their work. They are very good so make lots of profits - which makes pensions bigger for people like you and me
Either way he was spouting bollocks
I recall again that PB meets some of these criteria but not all and is actively hostile to one of them ("mix with people who wish to predict accurately"). @BlackRook, @isam and @RodCrosby were good but have been either banned or chased off.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5560181/The-vile-anti-Semitic-Facebook-sites-endorsed-Jeremy-Corbyns-Labour-activist-son.html
What odds would you give on them either building a new UK factory or closing a present UK factory ?
There is also the fact there aren't actually that many of them, I'd be surprised at anything much above 50.
They wouldn't be able to take the Labour name either. Also Brexit cuts through some of the anti-Corbyn MPs. Limiting their ability to make the new party anti-Brexit without limiting its numbers.
I wouldn't rule out them holding at least a few seats but where are the Blairite MPs that would go down well enough to hold a seat against Labour and the other challengers?
Let alone in any number. It would seem at best a suicide charge at the moment.
Mike banned him.
Labour should watch and learn
I'm not complaining, I turned a nice profit on the takeover. I bought at 175p some years ago, and have good dividends in the meantime. I sold in Feb at 408p.
I prefer to hold shares in companies doing something socially useful, and regarded British engineering manufacturing as part of that.
Frankly I don't know how the Tories usually manage to seem less divided, given their own troubles.
I think we need to move on and find a new opener.