Imagine, if you will, that you are a horse. Take that extra step and imagine that you’re a horse capable of reasoning, a Houyhnhnm if you will. As you stand in your stable at the end of the day, imagine you are reflecting on your species’ relationship with humans. It got off to a poor start, with humans seeing you as a food source. Fortunately, humans in general saw greater possibilities in you, learning that you could be a far greater source of power than they could manage on their own.
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Bancroft was fined 75% of his match fee and given three demerit points.
http://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/43531491
That will learn 'em, NOT. It is the equivalent of being put on the naughty step by Labour for dodgy Facebook posts.
What the....?
That’s no punishment at all, I was expecting something up there with what the Patistani spot fixers got, or someone who’d failed a drug test. After all, they were basically drugging the ball. One year ban, minimum for the Captain was required if it’s to be a deterrent.
It is hard to imagine the current system would hold with a revolution in robots taking over jobs and not enough jobs replacing them. Unless a sufficient enough number were winners from the change then democratic governments would get voted out. I think even authoritarian governments would struggle unless they shared some of the proceeds.
I'm of the view that we're not yet at a tip-over point where more jobs are lost to new tech than are gained from applications of that new tech. In fact, IMV it'll take either a catastrophe - e.g. a solar storm or EMP event - or true AI for it to happen. And I'm a good deal more bearish than many on here about the future prospects of AI.
As an aside, after the war my dad was taught to plough both with horses and with a tractor. He is the last generation for which horse-ploughing would have been seen as a 'useful' skill. He also remembers steam-ploughs - a steam engine at each end of a field, with a cable between the two pulling the plough, although that was a dying craft even when he was a child.
The rate of change has been massive. How will I explain to my three-year old that TV's used to be big boxes with tiny screens, and the state-of-the-art was black and white?
At the same time, the way he's been sacked mid-match is so far as I can find totally unprecedented. The nearest parallel would be when Ben Smith resigned as captain of Worcestershire mid match a few years ago (without checking, 2004?).
However, every cloud has a silver lining. Let's feast on Schadenfreude with some awesome puns:
Australia have shown they pay no heed to Warnerings about their conduct.
Their senior players are clearly Lyon about what they knew.
There was camera on Bancroft and this has led them to um Marsh.
Australia are going to need some serious Paine to get over this.
One prospect that intrigues me is 3D printing. I'm incredibly bullish (*) on it, and good multi-material 3D printing that is cheap enough, put together with good designs, could be truly transformative.
(*) No, that's not bullsh*t.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/15/heroes_of_tech_jim_westwood
A truly lovely and great chap.
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/William_Gibson
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/01/24/future-has-arrived/
Neigh, neigh and thrice neigh!
More seriously, interesting article. A friend of mine wrote an MA thesis on horse power in the late nineteenth century and actually suitable draught animals were much rarer than most people realised in this country by 191. There was a panic that those pesky Germans were buying them up to cripple the British army's supply lines, but really it was just because Britain had such a dense railway network that horses were not needed for carting any more. 75% of all horses used by the British army in World War One consequently came from Ireland, which of course did not have such a good railway network.
One factor I note you don't account for is food supplies. Without wishing to sound like Thomas Malthus, what do you think the impact of water shortages, population growth and wealth imbalances will have on food security, and what implications do you foresee from that?
Not that Bancroft is Test standard, but Warner really is a piece of work isn't he? Can't believe he was seen as a possible captain until this morning.
https://twitter.com/willie_rennie/status/977909097055096833
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IE6hSQu4lI
Mass unemployment won't be the problem. Greater inequality due to the owners of machines accumulating more of the capital is.
But there will be a point where capability and price will meet to make the tech truly transformative. Want a new toy for a children's party. Don't go to Toys R Us (*) or Amazon, but just download the designs and print one.
We're not there yet, and won't be for many years, but we will. But even this may end up increasing the number of jobs rather than decreasing it.
(*) Ooops
I agree however that this is an extraordinary and exceptional case. I don't see how Smith can remain captain or how any member of the current side can credibly replace him.
http://www.basicinstructions.net/basic-instructions/2007/2/25/how-to-apologize-without-accepting-any-blame.html Indeed. Suspension for several games (rather than a time period, in which they might not play that many games) would seem reasonable. Something has to recognise the difference in someone making a stupid call in the heat of the moment (which is still wrong) to an organised attempt to cheat, followed by an insincere apology (and even that, from Bancroft, contained phrases expressing 'I was nervous about it because there are hundreds of cameras around. Unfortunately I was in the wrong place at the wrong time' that is to say, regret at being caught, and Smith called it a mistake, even as they would have clearly been happy had they succeeded, and therefore done again).
I'd add that if the beneficiaries of automation are not only limited in number but largely able to avoid paying tax like everyone else, then left-wing populism is appropriate, and if it failed then revolution would loom on the horizon.
If technological unemployment does grow precipitously, so will mental health problems. We have not evolved to be idle.
Tim Paine may be about to have the shortest ever stint as official Test captain of Australia. Their batting is so poor they may not make it to the close, meaning (unless he captains in the next match) he will have been captain for one day.
Good article Alastair, an enjoyable read and no mention of the b-word!
Pause.
I still want a jetpack, tho...
For horse welfare their replacement by steam and the internal combustion engine was the best thing that ever happened.
https://www.fastcompany.com/40538464/this-house-can-be-3d-printed-for-4000
Revolutionary if they can scale it.
It is what always comes into my head when people talk about robots taking over human roles.
https://youtu.be/Tb627xDlqBs
You would have to have a heart of stone not to laugh at the send off he seems to be copping...
It's also bullsh*t. A house is more than just the shell; it's all the services as well, the finish, etc, etc. Yes, such tech could speed things up, but the '24 hours' claim is rubbish. It's like making a car's monocoque, putting a simple axle and wheels on it, and calling it a 'car'.
Even for homes for the poor, it's a poor solution.
BTW, have you ever seen Concrete Canvas?
I mean, the article even uses the phrase: "Because it is built using software..."
1) In policy terms, how do we expand ownership of capital to the many, not the few? The drastic solution would be forcible redistribution, with all the issues that entails. I wonder if a gentler 'nudge' solution, started gradually and imminently, might achieve the same result in a better way; e.g. tax incentives for employers to provide compensation in the form of shares or for private individuals to purchase them.
2) Part of the solution surely has to be encouraging shorter working hours to ration an increasingly scarce amount of work highly-skilled humans can't do. Again, a nudge might be preferable to a French-style hard cap. An improved work-life balance would no doubt be to the benefit of mental health and to the care needs of an ageing population.
F1: Channel 4 highlights are currently on. But if you don't mind spoilers, here's my post-race analysis of a race that was quite interesting:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/03/australia-post-race-analysis-2018.html
The human and horses comparison is flawed, because horses were the mode of transport. The shift of that led to horses largely becoming leisure creatures for many people rather than working (riding) animals.
Barring very rare events such as the Black Death, or the prehistoric supervolcanic eruption that very nearly wiped us out, the human population has only ever risen. Nor has technology reduced human work.
The idea that technology can free us from labour to enjoy leisure pursuits and idle fancies is a wonderful idea, but belongs in the Utopian sci-fi of Star Trek.
Their medical stuff in the UK is good http://www.alderhey.nhs.uk/welcome-to-alder-hey-the-uks-first-cognitive-hospital/how-it-helps/ . It's not robot nurses, it's computerised check-in, patient monitoring, predicting outcomes and recommending treatments. A help to nurses and doctors on their tablet/phone/PC, not a robotic replacement.
Presumably the recommendation of undetectable poisons to weed out undesirable patients and secure power for the singularity will come later....
Concrete Canvas is another interesting one, I’d imagine the aforementioned printer uses something similar. Building technology is certainly progressing at the moment.
https://youtu.be/JdLvUkLW5Jk
86/6.
They may have lost Marsh, but they are definitely in the mire...
Recent tests with it have had the AI equal to specialist oncologists (and way ahead of the average GP or A&E consultant) at identifying certain types of cancer, and at giving very good second opinions when presented with unusual symptoms. It’s not going to replace doctors anytime soon, but it could have the effect of allowing specialists to better allocate their schedules and generalists to help with diagnosis, referrals and training.
Sadly, it seems that role hasn't really taken off and it's much more used in general civils work. This sort of tech would have similar issues with adoption IMO, along with added difficulties.
Still, CC is a great British invention.
I’ve been married a long time!
Second two in two of the innings. Can Morkel in what may be his last Test take the hat trick?
Edit - no. Starc channels his inner Jessop and hammers it for four.
https://news.sky.com/story/first-direct-flight-from-australia-to-london-heathrow-takes-17-hours-11303554
So called Vloggers currently earn money, the best earn a lot of money simply by letting people watch them put their make-up on. Humans have found ways to create and trade value through their efforts since the first primitive man threw some stones on the floor and told someone’s fortune. Art, sport, entertainment, politics, bureaucracy, theoretical science, care, literature... fields of human activity we haven’t dreamt of yet... all will flourish in the future as robots do what the plough did and free time...
BTW you can't possibly hate Dominic Cummings more than I do.
PS. I’m now off to the pub. That’s not been automated. See you all later
On the other hand it could be like the information technology revolution. People expected the money to be made in the hardware, but it turned out to be the software and apllications that were the real bonanza. Similarly the railway revolution did not make much money for the railway owners (indeed they often lost their shirts), the money came from being able to exploit the transport to trade and travel better.
He was hit on the head earlier, apparently. However, there was no evidence of a brain. Sorry, that should have 'injury' on the end.
Even as socially Britain has moved sharply to the right on an anti-immigration wave, economically Britain looks to be moving to the left.
These are more consistent than the author's worldview permits him to believe.
Free market values are only going to be preserved if their advocates can come up with a format that enables enough people to participate properly in the free market.
i.e. free market values can not be preserved under the current EU consensus.
That would require a universal basic income once more people were out of permanent, full time work than had full time jobs and that would have to be funded by a robot tax on large companies based on the number of machines they employ. Share ownership would also need to be expanded to try and ensure more people benefit from some of the profits of those companies.
This must be the worst Test Australia have ever, ever played. It's dismal.
Just imagine how badly they would have been humiliated if they hadn't tried to cheat...why, the captain would surely have had to resign in disgrace!
I think there is much pain to come for Aus!
Edit - and surely, Hazle Wood throw it away. So it's not quite as bad as I feared, they only lose by 322 runs.