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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe won’t split Labour – but it does present a problem for GE2022
It’s not true that the Conservatives have been split from top to bottom on the subject of Europe for the last 70 years. Occasionally, peace broke out and something approaching a consensus arose. The first decade of Margaret Thatcher’s leadership was one such, when the Tories were enthusiastic about the EEC and keen to complete the Single Market. Later, under William Hague, the party settled on what amounted to ‘thus far and no further’. But for most of the post-war era, EU enthusiasts have competed with sceptics for ascendency in policy and in the party.
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If 20+ MPs such as Owen Smith were willing to take that step Labour would have a problem. There is a precedent, the SDP was largely formed by Labour politicians who opposed the party's then policy on Europe but one only has to compare the likes of Smith or Umuna with Roy Jenkins or Shirley Williams to see how different the current landscape is.
But once we leave, the EU will be a marginal issue in British politics. Housing and health will be far higher up the agenda. The idea of diverting a sizeable chunk of funding for those two - just to pay membership fees of something we are living happily without - is just not going to fly with the voters.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-43517234
Edited extra bit: although the end of that article suggests he might try doing both anyway.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/listen-diane-abbotts-brexit-hypocrisy/
@Cyclefree said:
Does being a supporter of the oppressed justify associating with Holocaust deniers - people who do not just spew hatred but deny facts? Holocaust deniers tend, on the whole, to be quite keen on oppression of Jews. Does Corbyn’s support of the oppressed not extend to oppressed Jews?
The difficulty with Corbyn’s views is that he claims to have principles but when his record is examined his support of those principles is in reality pretty wafer-thin. It would be truer to say that he likes some goups and does not care about others. Jews fall in the group he does not care about and therefore he is utterly indifferent to attacks on them, regardless of the source, type and offensiveness. Until it is pointed out and then he realises that it does not look good and he makes all sorts of inconsistent statements (some would call them lies) about not having seen or read the offensive material in question etc etc.
But it all feels as if he realises has been caught out and is trying to deal with the perception created rather than that he has a genuine understanding of why, for instance, no respectable, intelligent or decent politician ahould ever associate with Holocaust deniers.
I say, obviously not. But if you think that your people are being brutalised by an occupying force that is quite open to shooting children, which destroys the family home of any that oppose them, that has used water and food as weapons and which constantly refers back to the Holocaust to justify all this is it really surprising that some of their supporters get very fed up with this get out of jail free card and question its validity?
These people are not holocaust deniers in the way that neo-Nazis are, seeking to excuse Hitler's appalling policies. They have no interest in Hitler or Nazism. They are people who claim (wrongly of course) that this has all been exaggerated and in any event does not excuse what Israel is doing now. As I said in my post on the previous thread I think this is a bit more complicated than simple accusations make it seem.
Better than Farron and better than Cable. Serious, intelligent, and has experience of government. Not a leftwing dingbat like Cable, more sensible and serious than most of the Cabinet.
He should've stood last time, although I seem to recall he felt his policy of respecting the referendum result wouldn't sit well with Lib Dem members. Ironic, given their name.
So if we take Caroline Flint for example, she can't really afford to split off from Labour on this basis, her area voted leave and her majority is a few thousand rather than being untouchable.
Then the areas with the biggest remain vote are sometimes the areas that Corbyn has a lot of support. Any remain led split in Labour would likely be crushed unless events really work in their favour.
Interesting stats on the improvement in qualifying times from last year:
2017 Vs 2018:
Hamilton 1.22.188 - 1.21.164 = 1,024 Seconds
Vettel 1.22.456 - 1.21.838 = 0,618 Seconds
Verstappen 1.23.485 - 1.21.879 = 1,606 Seconds.
Rather suggests (as does Vettel's lack of advantage over Raikkonen) that Ferrari have yet to get to the best from their new car, in the same way Merecedes struggled with handling at the beginning of last season.
And Red Bull are a contender on the non-power tracks.
Given the probable qualifying power deficit, I'd say that qualifying was a fantastic result for Red Bull.
Lengthening the wheelbase must've affected Ferrari on street circuits. Might that not explain the (relative) performance loss?
It is said there are 80 or so labour mps who are committed remain supporters and if they want to have any effect on Brexit they need to be courageous and resign the whip and form their own group and invite other mps to join them.
My wife and I agree that we need to leave the EU but we need a close relationship with Europe probably defined as Associate Membership, and would expect that in due course and time the UK could rejoin the EU but only if it has not become a United States of Europe and respects the democracy of individual member states. (Also that Junckers is long gone and forever remembered as the person who lost the UK to Europe)
By the time of the next scheduled general election in 2022 the Tory government supported by the DUP will have taken us out of the EU, the single market and most likely the customs union too with Corbyn supporting the Tories on all of that bar leaving the Customs Union. Diehard Remainers May therefore decide that while they could never vote Tory voting LD rather than for Corbyn Labour is the only way to challenge Brexit
Less than 10% of Britons identify as European. Once we’ve left, and the economy hasn’t collapsed, enthusiasm for reopening the issue will dwindle, and will deter swing voters.
To win an election, Labour needs to attract the support of ex Tories and ex Leavers.
However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.
*Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.
I think too much is made of the wheelbase thing in terms of street circuits; it's more about learning how to best manage the tyres with the very different car dynamics. Mercedes have had a season working at the problem and seem to have cracked it.
1. What you say may excuse how some Palestinians feel but it does not justify a British politician who claims anti-racism as one of his key principles giving succour, support and associating with Holocaust deniers. We would not support the BNP if they suddenly claimed to be doing it for love of the Palestinians. A fortiori for Labour.
2. Palestinians themselves have been guilty of some pretty atrocious acts of violence against innocents and this is explicitly supported by their leaders. Neither side is innocent.
3. Much of the anti-Jewish materiel found in some of these groups and in Islamist propaganda does derive from Nazi propaganda and, specifically, from Nazi propaganda targeted at the Arab world. Paul Berman’s books spell it out in depressing detail. A cursory glance at Arab history in the 1930’s and 1940’s will show that some did have quite a bit of support for Hitler and Nazism.
4. As SO has rightly pointed out, quite a lot of the anti-Jewish feeling on the far Left derives from Soviet memes and from an older and more traditional anti-Jewish meme of Jews being in love with money, capitalist, bankers, usurers, cosmopolitan and somehow undemining the state. This tradition has combined with an anti-Israel meme (which also conveniently includes a wrong-headed anti-colonialist - Israel was established by the UN not by an Empire - and anti-American meme) into the toxic brew we have today.
It disgraces Labour.
I will never vote for a party led by a man who sees nothing wrong with associating with Holocaust deniers or inviting them to Parliament. It is, for me, a matter of conscience. My father was one of the doctors who had to go into Belsen. What he saw there sickened him. It was one of the few things he told me about his war experiences. I have friends whose parents either fled or survived the Holocaust. My mother’s family, despite being Catholic, were racially Jewish enough for the purpose of the laws in force that they had to hide in Italy during the war.
It sickens me to read posters here seeking to wave away anti-semitism as something of minor importance because of the need to win an election, because Tories are apparently so much more evil than the sorts of people who deny facts and justify murderous genocidal hatred.
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/977248089563127809
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/977472855368781824
Storm in a tea cup. Some backbenchers will whine but they cannot beat Corbyn. They know it and he knows it.
Perhaps he means PR?
PR, of course, is the work of Satan. Not to mention the idiot in question is seeking to change the electoral system on the basis of what advantages his own side and harms his main opponent.
The reason I suspect so many wave it away is because of the embarrassment of having to line up next to those non Jews who jump on the anti-Semite bandwagon without even knowing what 'being a Jew' means.
In my day, OR was Operations Research, and involved things like queuing theory.
They should have their little sounding offs on twitter and have no more talk of new parties, we know it won't happen.
Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:
1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.
It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.
By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.
The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg
Hannibal crossing the Alps they are not.
Mr. Borough, be a disaster for the UK political system generally, though that's a good point.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43523811
If as reported support for independence has dropped sharply, maybe the Spanish authorities should consider some sort of official vote.
If the Gov caves in on the CU (and they might because of the numbers) then Labour will move to include the single market. If the Gov caves in on the SM (unlikely) then Labour will say BINO - why leave?
Brexit is stuck on the Tory shoe and they can't scrape it off.
Any sign of longterm stability?
If that's the case they are all going to have to articulate a Brexit position. The current vogue for creative ambiguity is going to be hopelessly fucked out by then.
If people had voted the same way the last election would have been
Con 276
Lab 261
LD 49
SNP 20
UKIP 12
Green 11
PC 3
NI 18
But my estimate of how they would have actually looked is something like:
Con 236
Lab 211 (under a remainer since Corbyn isn't part of the party)
LibDem-Centre Alliance 74
The Left 40
Green 21
UKIP 25
SNP 20 (quite a different 20 though!)
PC 5
NI 18
Govern that...
Sometimes I think it provides psychotherapy and allows posters to get some powerful emotions off their chest and no doubt provides relief.
In another 14 years I predict most posters will be AI bots proving interesting facts, provocative arguments, trolling, and all the other stuff we do - with a few humans still left on the site getting psycho-therapeutic relief.
However, he smashed the Romans in numerous battles and spent over a decade rampaging around Italy. The loss, ultimately, was down to the constitutional strength of Rome and weakness of Carthage.
Crossing the Alps enabled Hannibal to reach Italy, which caused the Romans huge problems.
Edited extra bit: hmm. Raikkonen is 9 to win. He starts 2nd. Not backing it, but he was 31 yesterday...
"Operational Research", thank you, not "Operations Research" (the latter is an Americanism). I don't care what the Americans say, the Brits invented it...
[pedant mode off]
These people are not holocaust deniers in the way that neo-Nazis are, seeking to excuse Hitler's appalling policies. They have no interest in Hitler or Nazism. They are people who claim (wrongly of course) that this has all been exaggerated and in any event does not excuse what Israel is doing now. As I said in my post on the previous thread I think this is a bit more complicated than simple accusations make it seem.
1. What you say may excuse how some Palestinians feel but it does not justify a British politician who claims anti-racism as one of his key principles giving succour, support and associating with Holocaust deniers. We would not support the BNP if they suddenly claimed to be doing it for love of the Palestinians. A fortiori for Labour.
2. Palestinians themselves have been guilty of some pretty atrocious acts of violence against innocents and this is explicitly supported by their leaders. Neither side is innocent.
3. Much of the anti-Jewish materiel found in some of these groups and in Islamist propaganda does derive from Nazi propaganda and, specifically, from Nazi propaganda targeted at the Arab world. Paul Berman’s books spell it out in depressing detail. A cursory glance at Arab history in the 1930’s and 1940’s will show that some did have quite a bit of support for Hitler and Nazism.
4. As SO has rightly pointed out, quite a lot of the anti-Jewish feeling on the far Left derives from Soviet memes and from an older and more traditional anti-Jewish meme of Jews being in love with money, capitalist, bankers, usurers, cosmopolitan and somehow undemining the state. This tradition has combined with an anti-Israel meme (which also conveniently includes a wrong-headed anti-colonialist - Israel was established by the UN not by an Empire - and anti-American meme) into the toxic brew we have today.
It disgraces Labour.
I will never vote for a party led by a man who sees nothing wrong with associating with Holocaust deniers or inviting them to Parliament. It is, for me, a matter of conscience. My father was one of the doctors who had to go into Belsen. What he saw there sickened him. It was one of the few things he told me about his war experiences. I have friends whose parents either fled or survived the Holocaust. My mother’s family, despite being Catholic, were racially Jewish enough for the purpose of the laws in force that they had to hide in Italy during the war.
It sickens me to read posters here seeking to wave away anti-semitism as something of minor importance because of the need to win an election, because Tories are apparently so much more evil than the sorts of people who deny facts and justify murderous genocidal hatred.
I agree with DavidL. Also who are these posters on here who wave way anti-Semitism ? You sicken me by making such an accusation without quoting them.
Got lucky against some disorganised opponents but when they became organised they won and ultimately Carthage/Germany ceased to be nations as they were before.
He lost. He lost the battle, he lost the war, he lost the kingdom, and he lost his life. His blood swirled downriver with the rubies from his breastplate and the usurper rode over his corpse to steal the throne. He fought valiantly, he fought nobly, he fought valiantly. And he died.
No one wants to be the one dying a noble political death, and very few will risk it even if there's a chance of being the next Macron, and certainly not when they guy they would split from is very popular with the members they hope to take with them.
either a leftist Leave leader, and LD-Centre (remain) becomes difficult to manage, or vice versa.
The Green Party (I think there would be only one under PR) would be an interesting concept, probably far less of the statist-excuse ("watermelons") they are now
Shame on those Tories preaching protectionism and economic nationalism.
You’d expect such nonsense from morons like Priti Patel.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/23/brazen-scooter-gang-targets-bbc-cameras-along-route-university/
The plod really need to get a handle on this stuff.
The only sane thing to do is simply watch events unfolding while enjoying life as much as possible.
2. Palestinians themselves have been guilty of some pretty atrocious acts of violence against innocents and this is explicitly supported by their leaders. Neither side is innocent.
3. Much of the anti-Jewish materiel found in some of these groups and in Islamist propaganda does derive from Nazi propaganda and, specifically, from Nazi propaganda targeted at the Arab world. Paul Berman’s books spell it out in depressing detail. A cursory glance at Arab history in the 1930’s and 1940’s will show that some did have quite a bit of support for Hitler and Nazism.
4. As SO has rightly pointed out, quite a lot of the anti-Jewish feeling on the far Left derives from Soviet memes and from an older and more traditional anti-Jewish meme of Jews being in love with money, capitalist, bankers, usurers, cosmopoliundinining the stateradition has combined with an anti-Israel meme (whicolonialist - Israel was established by the UN not by an Empire - and anti-American meme) into the toxic brew we have today.
It disgraces Labour.
I will never vote for a party led by a man who sees nothing wrong with associating with Holocaust deniers or inviting them to Parliament. It is, for me, a matter of conscience. My father was one of the doctors who had to go into Belsen. What he saw there sickened him. It was one of the few things he told me about his war experiences. I have friends whose parents either fled or survived the Holocaust. My mother’s family, despite being Catholic, were racially Jewish enough for the purpose of the laws in force that they had to hide in Italy during the war.
It sickens me to read posters here seeking to wave away anti-semitism as something of minor importance because of the need to win an election, because Tories are apparently so much more evil than the sorts of people who deny facts and justify murderous genocidal hatred.
I agree with DavidL. Also who are these posters on here who wave way anti-Semitism ? You sicken me by making such an accusation without quoting them.
Foxy and BJO, especially the latter were pretty explicit last night. The lack of moral compass was both stark and sad.
Like Scipio? And Sempronius? And Flaminius? And Marcellus? And Varro/Paullus?
He rampaged around Italy for over a decade when the Republic was at the height of its patriotic power.
Mr. kle4, to defeat Persia, Thermopylae was necessary.
I joined in about 2008 and remember thinking Rod Crosby was a bit of a leftie for predicting the Tories would fail to get a majority! I hope I now understand GE probabilities modelling and trading betting far better than I did thanks to this site.
Posted more often in my first couple of years and thoroughly enjoyed jousting with tim who could be entertaining and infuriating in equal measure.
On a peaceful subject as the last few threads have been a bit intense, what do we make of this?
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2018/mar/23/first-non-stop-direct-flight-between-uk-and-australia-perth-london
It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours (I've had several 12-hour flights in tourist class) - I definitely don't want to be wired up to test my posture or any such nonsense (I incidentally dislike those chairs with ridges to make you sit in an anatomically correct position - I'll sit how I like, thanks). A litte extra leg room would be nice, but otherwise No Big Deal. I remember frequent traveller SeanT feeling very differenly. Do most people have a problem with long flights?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5536775/England-football-louts-causing-chaos-Amsterdam-ahead-friendly-fixture.html
Had Rome been more organised and less arrogant they’d have crushed Hannibal within a few years.
Like Hitler, Hannibal despite a few early victories lost the war, endex.
Mr. Eagles, Rome was extremely well-organised. The arrogance point is legitimate, although the only commander in Italy to equal him was Quintus Fabius Maximus (Scipio beat him at Zama, of course, but did have substantial advantages in other areas).
Also, your Hitler comparison, beyond the obvious ridiculousness, is ineffably wrong. Hannibal was a brilliant leader of men. Hitler put himself in command of certain armed forces groups and tended to bugger things up. The less Hitler had to do with actual military decisions, the better the Nazis did. The less Hannibal had to do with decisions, the worse the Carthaginians did.
Anyway, I must be off for a little while, but I shall return to peruse the markets.
Now there are three! I can only guess that the new ones are Russian and the whiff of Novichok has found its way to the Riviera