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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local By-Election Preview : April 10th 2013 (t-22

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  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    This is a curious juxtaposition of pages which popped up on a search when I wanted to find out more about the next person who will become an MP:

    "Councillor Emma Lewell-Buck, who is the Labour leader for adult social care and support services for South Shields, has defended the council’s day care shake-up which has and will continue to lead to centre closures in the area."

    http://www.carehomesuk.co.uk/resources/news/senior-councillor-defends-centre-closures-as-step-to-improve-day-care-services-in-the-city/

    EMMA LEWELL LIMITED

    Company sics:

    88990 - Other social work activities without accommodation not elsewhere classified


    http://www.companies-uk.co.uk/emma-lewell-limited-07408814



    That looks like a personal services company, doesn't it?

    If she does free lance work then not such an unusual arrangement.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2013
    sam said:

    Looks like lobby fodder to me if she is elected.

    Pong said:
    A socialist-feminist with a double barrelled name... Lay labour at big odds on?
    There was a report mentioning 21,000 postal votes in South Shields.

    http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/ukip-will-put-up-fight-for-south-shields-seat-1-5564294
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Everyone should have an avatar!

    @Neil - I don't know how to put this delicately... but, between friends, and I hope you won't take offence at me bringing up the subject, shouldn't you get a new avatar?

  • samsam Posts: 727

    sam said:

    Looks like lobby fodder to me if she is elected.

    Pong said:
    A socialist-feminist with a double barrelled name... Lay labour at big odds on?
    I think there was a report mentioning 21,000 postal votes in South Shields.

    I guess that means lab have a few in the bag already?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    From Ellen Wilkinson to that!
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    This is a curious juxtaposition of pages which popped up on a search when I wanted to find out more about the next person who will become an MP:

    "Councillor Emma Lewell-Buck, who is the Labour leader for adult social care and support services for South Shields, has defended the council’s day care shake-up which has and will continue to lead to centre closures in the area."

    http://www.carehomesuk.co.uk/resources/news/senior-councillor-defends-centre-closures-as-step-to-improve-day-care-services-in-the-city/

    EMMA LEWELL LIMITED

    Company sics:

    88990 - Other social work activities without accommodation not elsewhere classified


    http://www.companies-uk.co.uk/emma-lewell-limited-07408814



    That looks like a personal services company, doesn't it?

    If she does free lance work then not such an unusual arrangement.
    Does the local council do tax-efficient BBC-style contracts?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013

    sam said:

    Looks like lobby fodder to me if she is elected.

    Pong said:
    A socialist-feminist with a double barrelled name... Lay labour at big odds on?
    I think there was a report mentioning 21,000 postal votes in South Shields.

    In 2010 GE 23.222 postal ballots issued. 18,422 postal votes received out of 37,417 votes cast.
    17.634 postal votes included in the count.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Having seen her photo, I can safely assume the personal services are not of the Cynthia Payne type.

    This is a curious juxtaposition of pages which popped up on a search when I wanted to find out more about the next person who will become an MP:

    "Councillor Emma Lewell-Buck, who is the Labour leader for adult social care and support services for South Shields, has defended the council’s day care shake-up which has and will continue to lead to centre closures in the area."

    http://www.carehomesuk.co.uk/resources/news/senior-councillor-defends-centre-closures-as-step-to-improve-day-care-services-in-the-city/

    EMMA LEWELL LIMITED

    Company sics:

    88990 - Other social work activities without accommodation not elsewhere classified


    http://www.companies-uk.co.uk/emma-lewell-limited-07408814



    That looks like a personal services company, doesn't it?

    If she does free lance work then not such an unusual arrangement.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    South Tyneside council is quite useful as it's one of the few that always report the number of postal votes per ward each year.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    UKIP Treasurer interview:
    "£200,000 to be spent on advertising in local elections over the next few weeks

    As of a few weeks ago, the party's accounts showed a healthy balance of £340,000, Wheeler said."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/10/tory-donors-switching-ukip-treasurer

    (I assume this is an excerpt from the Times piece mentioned below by TSE)

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    For ex...taking a low turnout example...2012 locals ...South Shields wards

    Beacon and Bents (37% turnout): 1,020 votes cast in person, 1,556 by post
    Biddick and All Saints (28.1%): 506 in person, 1,272 by post
    Cleadon Park (33.6%): 498 in person, 1295 by post
    Harton (34.2%): 561 in person, 1,729 by post
    Horsley Hill (37.8): 856/1,794
    Simonside and Rekendyke (29.1%): 541/1,317
    West Park (33.2): 686/1,226
    Westoe (32.8): 821/1,328
    Whitburn and Marsden (37.8): 651/1,557
    Whiteleas (32.2): 611/1,496
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RodCrosby said:

    The only British PM to be defenestrated by her own party... after they realised she was clinically insane...

    It sure as heck beats being defenestrated by your own party to be replaced by someone who is clinically insane...
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    LOL.

    RodCrosby said:

    The only British PM to be defenestrated by her own party... after they realised she was clinically insane...

    It sure as heck beats being defenestrated by your own party to be replaced by someone who is clinically insane...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    RodCrosby said:

    The only British PM to be defenestrated by her own party... after they realised she was clinically insane...

    It sure as heck beats being defenestrated by your own party to be replaced by someone who is clinically insane...
    lolz
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lib Dems have held the Luton by-election.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    LD 982 Lab 517 Con 281 UKIP 230 Ind 62 Green 27
  • Hello all

    Just signed up to VanillaForum.

    It seems to have automatically given me a nice round face so no change there, but I seem now to have a heart as a mouth.

    Concerning the password my old one was extremely weak so I tried :'MargaretThatcher'. VanillaForums is obviously a fan, as it said that it was 'amazing'.

    Have changed it now to an equally amazing password.

    Do I get a badge for my first post ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think the number of female MPs will increase to 147 if Emma Lewell-Buck wins.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Luton:

    LD 46.8%
    Lab 24.6%
    Con 13.4%
    UKIP 11.0%
    Ind 3.0%
    Green 1.3%
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I think
    LD up by around 5%, Labour more or less stable, Con down 10%, UKIP stable
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    I see the spinners have already got to work:

    A direct decedent [sic] of local town hero William Wouldhave, the inventor of the Lifeboat, Emma was born in South Shields.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    LDs hold Wigmore ward in Luton after 3% swing from LAB. LD 982, LAB 517, Con 281, UKIP 230, Ind 62, Green 27
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,863
    AveryLP - Not quite sure how you deduced that from my comments Avery LP, but a public services manager is a job at least outside the confines of the Westminster village
  • TubOfLardTubOfLard Posts: 3
    edited April 2013
    Re. Ms Lewell-Buck. Looks like she is well prepared for becoming the next MP for South Shields. I assume this is her service company.

    http://www.companies-uk.co.uk/emma-lewell-limited-07408814

    EDIT: Whoops! Already mentioned an hour ago, I now notice.

    How does one reply on VanillaForums ?
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Doug Daniel ‏@DouglasDaniel
    Seeing a fair few folk on here outwith the usual crowd saying the fawning over Thatcher is turning them towards independence.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Click on "quote" at the bottom of the comment you want to reply to
  • Click on "quote" at the bottom of the comment you want to reply to

    Thank you.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    Doug Daniel ‏@DouglasDaniel
    Seeing a fair few folk on here outwith the usual crowd saying the fawning over Thatcher is turning them towards independence.

    Roger claimed it was causing him to slit his wrists.

    I fear both PB and the Nationalists will be disappointed by broken promises, James.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I fear both PB and the Nationalists will be disappointed by broken promises, James."

    I can assure you, Avery, that I will be delighted to hear that Roger has resisted the temptation to self-harm.

    This whole thing has mostly passed me by - I seem to have got out of the habit of watching television. I did accidentally stumble across the 'Thatcher party' in George Square on Monday, but I hastily got out of the way once I realised what it was.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    HYUFD said:

    AveryLP - Not quite sure how you deduced that from my comments Avery LP, but a public services manager is a job at least outside the confines of the Westminster village

    You never know, HYUFD.

    Few people would have thought that a daughter of a grocer from a provincial town who first stood as a parliamentary candidate at the age of 24 in the early 1950s would progress to becoming the UK's greatest peacetime Prime Minister.

    But I still think the odds are stacked against Miss Lewell-Buck following in Maggie's footsteps.

    I agree we do need more outside experience and achievements in our parliamentary candidates but the CV of Ms. Buck, prima facie, doesn't convince me this is what is needed to boost the breadth and depth of our parliamentarians.

    But as Maggie proved, I may be wrong.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    "I fear both PB and the Nationalists will be disappointed by broken promises, James."

    I can assure you, Avery, that I will be delighted to hear that Roger has resisted the temptation to self-harm.

    This whole thing has mostly passed me by - I seem to have got out of the habit of watching television. I did accidentally stumble across the 'Thatcher party' in George Square on Monday, but I hastily got out of the way once I realised what it was.

    All countries need their icons and idols, James, as well as their rites and rituals.

    You should have done a karaoke turn in George Square and then made the video recorded result available for download from ScotGoesVoxPop.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "You should have done a karaoke turn in George Square and then made the video recorded result available for download from ScotGoesVoxPop."

    I tend to agree, Avery. Some people say you shouldn't mess with perfection, but I think a multimedia element probably would add something to Scot Goes Pop. I shall give it some thought.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    AveryLP said:

    I see the spinners have already got to work:

    A direct decedent [sic] of local town hero William Wouldhave, the inventor of the Lifeboat, Emma was born in South Shields.
    As ancestors go that's pretty cool.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    welshowl said:

    Roger said:

    "He got his Knighthood from his father's Baronetcy."

    Can Mark then pass it down through his family without even having to sleep with anyone?

    Well he can pass it onto his son, the Grandchild of Lady Thatcher, whom she memorably announced that "We are a grandmother"
    Isn't grandson American?
    Oh yes. Michael Thatcher is not only American, but hunkily so.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-504291/Margaret-Thatchers-grandson-rising-star-American-football.html
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Henry Greathead and Lionel Lukin have better claims to having invented the lifeboat than William Wouldhave.

    Though as @AveryLP observes, the spinners have got to work already.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    While watching Glenda Jackson's speech, apart from being appalled at the sour and bitter rant of bile which she spouted, I couldn't help noticing the way her ear-rings were flailing about hysterically. I just don't get ear-rings (especially of the dangly type, as hers were). How on Earth anyone can put up with being constantly tickled by tiny ballistic projectiles in such a way is beyond my comprehension. The same applies to long dangly droopy hair which constantly squaggles itself all over the face, and the bizarre adverts for women to have huge piles of sticky gunge pasted all over their eyelashes.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Dan Hodges is the son of Glenda Jackson? Well I never..
  • GeoffM said:

    Henry Greathead and Lionel Lukin have better claims to having invented the lifeboat than William Wouldhave.

    Well, they would have wouldn't they?

    (I'll get me coat)

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790

    Dan Hodges is the son of Glenda Jackson? Well I never..

    Who the fuff-a-doodle-doo is Dan Hodges? Am I supposed to care? Is he a deranged lefty thought-criminal?

  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Swing to LD from Lab? From Con, surely?
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    JohnLoony said:

    Dan Hodges is the son of Glenda Jackson? Well I never..

    Who the fuff-a-doodle-doo is Dan Hodges? Am I supposed to care? Is he a deranged lefty thought-criminal?

    he may be deranged in the sense that he thinks he's a labour supporter but only pens Ed is crap stories for the Daily telegraph.

    his column the other day said Ed should say nice thigns about mrs t, then sit down and shut up. he forgot to tell his mum, apparently.

    not that any of this means you should care, particularly
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 10th April - CON 28%, LAB 42%, LD 12%, UKIP 11%; APP -33
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    Scotland Subsample
    Cons 17; Lab 40; LD 8; SNP 32; UKIP 2

    Yesterday it was:
    Cons:14; LAB:35; LD 24; SNP 17; UKIP:9

    This looks to be way outside MOE, could YouGov explain if they have a sampling problem.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 10th April - CON 28%, LAB 42%, LD 12%, UKIP 11%; APP -33

    I guess that answers OGH question from yesterday then!

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting split among UKIP VI:

    Which option best for Britain:

    Maj Con govt: 46
    Con - LD coalition : 4
    Lab - LD coalition : 9
    Maj Lab govt : 10
    Don't know: 31
  • I think the high degree of YG daily fluctuations must cast doubt either on their methodology or the merit of Daily polling so far from a GE. I'm on their panel and I guess also one of many who can't be arsed to complete their survey requests.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,029

    Interesting split among UKIP VI:

    Which option best for Britain:

    Maj Con govt: 46
    Con - LD coalition : 4
    Lab - LD coalition : 9
    Maj Lab govt : 10
    Don't know: 31

    Wonder what the x-tabs between this and the VI question are?!
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited April 2013
    Financier said:

    YouGov

    Scotland Subsample
    Cons 17; Lab 40; LD 8; SNP 32; UKIP 2

    Yesterday it was:
    Cons:14; LAB:35; LD 24; SNP 17; UKIP:9

    This looks to be way outside MOE, could YouGov explain if they have a sampling problem.

    Half the country is still on holiday, at least in my part of the world
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,693
    edited April 2013
    On topic, looking at the Luton result the total number of votes dropped by 753, of which 437 were previously Conservative voters, The next biggest fall was among Labour voters, 180.

    Hmmmm
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    scampi said:

    I think the high degree of YG daily fluctuations must cast doubt either on their methodology or the merit of Daily polling so far from a GE. I'm on their panel and I guess also one of many who can't be arsed to complete their survey requests.

    The MOE on Labour's VI is 2.26 and on the Conservatives is 3.5 - so these "swings" are almost all within MOE - hence the surprise at yesterday's thread on "Lab lead "down to 8".

    On a related note the MOE on the SNP vote is 11 - so again the "fluctuation" is almost all MOE.

    http://www.comres.co.uk/poll-digest/11/margin-of-error-calculator.htm#
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    edited April 2013
    There are two possibilities for the rather depressing Conservative results in the latest Yougov poll.

    1. That all this talk of an ex leader reminds them of the shortcomings of their present one

    2. Or that as the dust settles people start to remember what she was like. Her support for apartheid. Her support and friendship for the tyrant Pinochet. Section 28. Her support for the Contras. Her gift of an hereditary peerage to her son Mark. For turning the country from a compassionate one to an avaricious one.

    My guess is it's the second and as people wake up to the ugly realization that the current lot are her spawn they are starting to feel nauseous.
  • @Roger ">There are two possibilities for the rather depressing Conservative results in the latest Yougov poll.

    1. That all this talk of an ex leader reminds them of the shortcomings of their present one

    2. Or that as the dust settles people start to remember her support for apartheid. Her support and friendship for the tyrant Pinochet. Her support for the Contras. Her gift of a hereditary peerage to her son Mark. For section 28. For turning the country from a compassionate one to an avaricious one.

    My guess is it's the second and as people wake up to the ugly realization that the current lot are her spawn they are starting to feel nauseous."

    Lol - How very Glenda Jackson - guardianistaland is not the real world dear.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    My guess is it's the second and as people wake up to the ugly realization that the current lot are her spawn they are starting to feel nauseous.

    My guess is that your attribution of MOE swings say much more about your wish fulfilment than anything about the electorate.

    The polling directly on Thatcher suggests that while still highly polarising she's still net popular,

    Why this should have any bearing on a Coalition government in power 23 years after she left office is for the birds...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    Her support for apartheid.

    "Johannesburg - Former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher had a better grasp of the complexities and geo-strategic realities of South Africa than many of her contemporaries, former president FW de Klerk said on Monday.

    A steadfast critic of apartheid, she had consistently and correctly believed that much more could be achieved through constructive engagement with the South African government than through draconian sanctions and isolation, De Klerk said in a statement."

    http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/Thatcher-had-better-grasp-of-SAs-complexities-FW-20130408

    Then there was her championing of white minority rule in Rhodesia....oh, hang on.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Dan says Tony says Ed is crap:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100211660/tony-blairs-critique-of-ed-miliband-is-harsh-but-accurate-labour-has-left-itself-on-the-wrong-side-of-every-debate/

    Tony Blair's critique of Ed Miliband is harsh but accurate: Labour has left itself on the wrong side of every debate
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Another "automatic membership" for an independent Scotland falls - this time NATO:

    In a written response on the question of membership, a Nato statement said this week: “It appears widely agreed that, as a matter of law, a Scotland which has declared its independence and thereby established its separate statehood would be viewed as a new state.”

    It continued: “If it were to choose to apply for Nato membership, its application would be subject to the normal procedure, as outlined in article ten of the treaty.”

    Mr Salmond has argued that Scotland is already a member of Nato “by virtue of our membership of the United Kingdom.”

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/our-nato-spot-is-safe-after-yes-vote-insist-snp-1-2887431
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Have the tea party tories found a reason yet why anyone should believe Cast Iron Cameron's pledges for an EU referendum

    Cameron's govt. spokesman have admitted there might not be a treaty. Yet it's not just Cameron and the tory party's own position on whether to support IN or OUT that was predicated on treaty negotiations that likely won't happen.

    The entire referendum itself even happening is predicated on those treaty negotiations occurring, even down to the wording of the question.
    "The next Conservative manifesto in 2015 will ask for a mandate from the British people for a Conservative government to negotiate a new settlement with our European partners in the next Parliament," he said. "It will be a relationship with the single market at its heart.

    "And when we have negotiated that new settlement, we will give the British people a referendum with a very simple in or out choice: to stay in the EU on these new terms or come out altogether.
    It's all there in Cameron's own words.

    For anyone who missed that it's a get out clause and loophole every bit as huge as the one Cammie used for Lisbon.

    How hard will it be for Cameron to wriggle out of his Cast Iron Pledge for an IN/OUT EU referendum in the future on the grounds that it can't be held since there will have been no treaty, no negotiations, no new settlement and no new terms?

    About as hard as it was for Cammie to wriggle out of the Cast Iron Lisbon pledge.
This discussion has been closed.