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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Has Clegg told Cameron when he’ll stand down?

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  • Twickenham Conservatives select Tania Mathias (beating Thomas O’Malley and Richard Reynold) for 2015 election.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I saw Andy Burnham and Norman Lamb speak on the same platform at the National NHS commissioning show in June in an audience of NHS professionals. There was virtually no difference in their vision of how the HSC bill will be implemented. It was an astonishing consensus between govt and opposition front benchers.

    The mistake on tuition fees by the LibDems was in the pre election pledges and in negotiating the coalition agreement if it truly was a red line. In govt they converted it into a defacto graduate tax, and Labour Seem to have no plans to reverse it.

    I am not embarrassed by the LDs in govt. I want to see them continue it in 2015 whoever the biggest party is.
    SMukesh said:

    <

    The other influence that the LibDems have had includes the pupil premium, and attenuating the NHS changes and Tuition fees. A more positive attitude to Europe is a further one.

    It is the right wing of the Tory party that most resents the LibDems, and the Labour party should not be too disparaging about the LibDem ministrrs and their policies, not least because they may be in cabinet with Labour ministers in 2015. It is rarely worth making permenant enemies.

    SMukesh said:

    Apart from stabilizing the economy and taking millions of low paid out of tax?

    After all, what have the Romans done for us?

    SMukesh said:

    Regarding plastic bags from 2015,the two parties can agree to slash housing benefit for thousands,split the NHS and create an artificial housing boom by tax-payer guaranteed mortgages.But they can`t agree to introduce a 5 p cost for plastic bags till the next election.

    Moral:Anything the Conservatives support will be implemented now
    Anything the Conservatives oppose will be introduced in 2015.

    And therein lies the failure of Clegg.He has been good for coalition by being a Yes-man but has got very little in return.

    What else of the Lib-Dem agenda has gone through apart from raising the income-tax
    So what you are saying is the achievement that they have moderated the rabid right-wing of the Tory party.And you are the first person who touts their role on tuition fees and NHS changes as a success.

    It`s not Labour who despises them,it`s their former voters.
  • Twickenham Conservatives select Tania Mathias (beating Thomas O’Malley and Richard Reynold) for 2015 election.

    Thanks for info. No chance of getting elected unless Vince Cable decides that approaching 72 (June 2015) he should retire. May depend upon whether there is an LD Leadership contest before the GE.
  • TimT2TimT2 Posts: 45
    Here is the link to my piece on Syria's CW in the Times today:

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article3868733.ece

    Hope it is not behind the paywall...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    And now Lamb is in health and Lansley is not. So who won the argument?

    TCPB: both Farron and Cable are centrists (albeit left leaning)

    The next LD leader will be a centrist, but I expect the contest will be post election.
    tim said:

    @foxinsox

    There never was between Burnham and Lamb, the unhinged Lansley refused to work with Lamb though.
    Hopefully the Lib Dems will do to the crazy Help To Buy scheme what they should've done to Lansleys enterprise, bomb it on the runway

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,551
    edited September 2013

    class="Quote" rel="JosiasJessop">perversely, I once saw such a feccu-bag hanging from a tree in Hampshire alongside a pair of blue frilly panties.

    Or just a dogger covering all bases?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,551
    You have to wonder whether St. Vince would like a reasonable stint in the House of Lords....
  • TimT2 said:

    Here is the link to my piece on Syria's CW in the Times today:

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article3868733.ece

    Hope it is not behind the paywall...

    Hi Tim, unfortunately it does seem to paywalled! Nice intro though!
  • You have to wonder whether St. Vince would like a reasonable stint in the House of Lords....

    If Ming goes then Vince will be the eldest LD MP after the GE.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,551


    If Ming goes then Vince will be the eldest LD MP after the GE.

    Not sure that would be reason enough for Farron to stand aside - Vince taking the reins as the "safe pair of hands" candidate?

  • I think Clegg will soldier on right up to the election. He and Cameron are quite similar politically.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited September 2013
    Mr Sked on Daily Politics, explaining his New Deal party. Will not have any MEP candidates. Not clear if it is any more than just himself.

    http://playpolitical.typepad.com/other_uk_parties/2013/09/ukip-founder-alan-sked-launches-new-deal-party.html
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,890
    I think Clegg will lead the Lib-Dems into the election and then stand aside afterwards (or perhaps remain as leader if the Lib's do better than expected, which I think they might)

    But I do think the Lib's and Con's will break up the coalition some time before the election - Probably Q4 2014.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited September 2013

    I think Clegg will soldier on right up to the election. He and Cameron are quite similar politically.

    Didn't Lord Oakshott all but announce a leadership contest to be held in June 2014 after the EU/locals?

  • My parents live in the country, and when I visit them I like to take their dogs for walks. I don't like picking up poo, so I keep to country lanes, fields and woods. Since these walks seem to be either covered in Sheep shit, Billions of dried up bits rabbit poo, or fox or badger poo (as the dogs love rolling in that) plus the one foot high piles of horse shit I walk around, I don't see what people get so precious about.

    I don't take them to Public parks or along town pavements. It avoids the stress of people with their mastiffs and kids and as they are terrier mixes they like to chase rabbits if the see any.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,723
    edited September 2013

    "When you go into government with a party whose attributes are greed prejudice and fear it's always going to be difficult"

    I just heard a Lib Dem (MP?) say this as an explanation why the Lib Dems are unpopular at the moment.

    Which rather begs the question........
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    edited September 2013
    I am not sure Clegg would be so willing to distance himself too much from the one Libdem Leadership legacy that makes him stand out from his predecessors in the run up to the next GE? The Libdems might also think onto the possibility of there being another Hung Parliament, and the fact that the electorate might not take too kindly to another GE in relatively quick succession if they decided to head back to the Opposition benches rather than forming another Coalition under a new Leader. Keeping Clegg on as Leader until after the GE might not be as bad an idea as some think, he is probable still be the best man to steer them through this scenario having successfully formed a solid coalition deal with the Tories that has lasted the distance in this Parliament. And more importantly, he and Danny Alexander will be in a good position to learn from previous mistakes when it comes to negotiations and delivering a better deal for their party with either of the main parties if required. A panicked change of Libdem Leader just as Ed Miliband is beginning to look so toxic for the Labour party might not be such a clever move.

    Its going to be interesting to see how well some of the more high profile Libdems in Government perform in their on seats at the next GE, I suspect they might even do better locally than some of their less well known colleagues relying on just the incumbency factors alone. JackW did an interesting couple of articles for PB before the last GE, and I remember questioning the idea that Alastair Darling was ever really in danger of losing his Edinburgh seat despite the unpopularity of the previous Labour Government. I was convinced that being in the high profile position of Chancellor made that far less likely despite the state of the economy.

    The Libdems were always going to struggle to regain an air of equidistant from both the main parties now that they have experienced Coalition Government, so why bother making it a self inflicted negative by trying to undermine their part in a Coalition Government that rescued the economy? The Libdems are going to be asked repeatedly what their terms will be to form another coalition with either party in the event of another Hung Parliament during the next GE campaign. They should just get on with producing their own individual manifesto based on their record, but with a focus on a desire to continue building on that rather than gimmicks aimed at making them look like an Opposition party again.



  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,890
    edited September 2013

    I think Clegg will soldier on right up to the election. He and Cameron are quite similar politically.

    Didn't Lord Oakshott all but announce a leadership contest to be held in June 2014 after the EU/locals?

    Lord Oakshott has said a lot over the past three years and my general attitude to his musings is, "Whatever"
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,890
    Of course, what should really happen is that the SDP wing of the Lib-Dems should go back home to Labour.

    The "Orange Bookers" should join the Conservative Party and the genuine Liberals should be left to enjoy their mid 20th century style obscurity in peace.

    That way we can go back to having majority governments on 40%+ of the vote again. :D
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited September 2013
    Roger said:


    "When you go into government with a party whose attributes are greed prejudice and fear it's always going to be difficult"

    I just heard a Lib Dem (MP?) say this as an explanation why the Lib Dems are unpopular at the moment.

    Which rather begs the question........

    It could have been worse , they could have gone into a government with a party whose attributes were financial incompetence , statism , making white voters angry etc etc .
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,723
    MikeK
    Shouldn't you be Yom-Kippering rather than U-Kippering today?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,457
    TimT2 said:

    Here is the link to my piece on Syria's CW in the Times today:

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article3868733.ece

    Hope it is not behind the paywall...

    Yes, good piece - was pleased to see pb's Rational Tendency spreading its influence. (Pity it's in the Times, which appears to have resigned from the Rational Tendency under the new editor and decided wa-hey! partisanship is the way to go.)



    The European Parliament has to sign off, but they can only reject the whole thing, rather than being able to veto individuals. I doubt they'd reject someone purely because they were Euro-sceptical if they were in the mainstream of the elected British government, although you never know. I suppose if they tried to send someone who specifically said they intended to break things it's possible there might be some push-back, but it feels more likely that they'd let them in but give them the paperclip-counting portfolio...

    The EP now votes on individual Commissioners, in a daring advance for Euro-democracy. I was recently involved in a serious EP lobbying operation to get a Commissioner approved - he had a lot of opposition as his views on abortion were said to be a bit debatable but he was sound on banning animal tests for cosmetics, so we had a member-by-member lobby and got him through by a large majority (and the ban then got through, to sulphurous indignation from industry). The EP is increasingly reluctant to be a pushover though and I think if there was a Faragist nominee he'd be resoundingly rejected. A mainstream representative with a bolshy mandate...well, maybe.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lots of red on orange attacks today - I assume ths is a strategy .
  • NPxMP - what's your view on this? To my harsh blue eye, it looks rather pathetic...

    Mehdi Hasan‏@mehdirhasan9m
    'Humiliating'? Hmm not sure she should be drawing more attention to it...
    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/sep/14/rachel-reeves-boring-newsnight
    #moveon
  • BBC confused... on subsidy or tax???

    BBC Politics‏@BBCPolitics2m
    Updated with corrected headline: A UK Labour government 'would axe the bedroom tax': http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-24090772

    BBC Politics‏@BBCPolitics1h
    Labour 'will axe spare room subsidy' http://bbc.in/164aGx5
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,519
    edited September 2013
    @BostonGlobe
    BREAKING: US, Russia agree to framework of pact to deal with Syria's chemical weapons. More to come.
    At the time I didn't expect it to make a difference, but if it hadn't been for the vote in the UK, the US would probably already have started bombing, escalating the proxy war with Russia and Iran.

    We should all be thankful that David Cameron and Ed Miliband have the amount of political skill, courage and non-partisan high-mindedness that they do.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723

    NPxMP - what's your view on this? To my harsh blue eye, it looks rather pathetic...

    Mehdi Hasan‏@mehdirhasan9m
    'Humiliating'? Hmm not sure she should be drawing more attention to it...
    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/sep/14/rachel-reeves-boring-newsnight
    #moveon

    The actual quote is not so bad`.It was slightly humiliating` is what she said and fair enough I suppose.But it wasn`t anyone`s fault.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,723
    Scrapheap.

    I thought it was quite sweet if that doesn't sound too patronising. it reminded me that MP's are human beings
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,723
    Edmund.

    Where would we be without these high minded party leaders!
  • Roger said:

    Edmund.

    Where would we be without these high minded party leaders!

    Non-snarkily, it was a failure by the politicians, but a triumph for the political system.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited September 2013
    Syria has just been handed a very large hot potato.. what will it do now..
    I love the way Kerry told them that the US has watched them move every box of this sh*t and know where it is.
  • NPxMP - what's your view on this? To my harsh blue eye, it looks rather pathetic...

    Mehdi Hasan‏@mehdirhasan9m
    'Humiliating'? Hmm not sure she should be drawing more attention to it...
    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/sep/14/rachel-reeves-boring-newsnight
    #moveon

    Rachel Reeves?? Where??

    :)
  • My parents live in the country, and when I visit them I like to take their dogs for walks. I don't like picking up poo, so I keep to country lanes, fields and woods. Since these walks seem to be either covered in Sheep shit, Billions of dried up bits rabbit poo, or fox or badger poo (as the dogs love rolling in that) plus the one foot high piles of horse shit I walk around, I don't see what people get so precious about.

    I don't take them to Public parks or along town pavements. It avoids the stress of people with their mastiffs and kids and as they are terrier mixes they like to chase rabbits if the see any.

    My preciousness is not about the faecal matter, as much as the fact people put it in plastic bags and then leave it around to brew.

    But it should be remembered that contact with dog feaces can cause blindness:
    http://www.netdoctor.co.uk/ate/childrenshealth/200336.html
    http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/Toxocariasis/Pages/Introduction.aspx

    On a similar point, ISTR reading somewhere that dog faecal matter carries much more harmful bacteria than those of undomesticated animals.

    Basically, if you are in an area where people travel regularly, and especially if children play, clean up after your dog.
  • Syria has just been handed a very large hot potato.. what will it do now..
    I love the way Kerry told them that the US has watched them move every box of this sh*t and know where it is.

    "U.S. won’t insist that a U.N. resolution enforcing the Russian plan for Syria to give up its chemical weapons include military force as an enforcement mechanism."

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/358510/obama-wont-insist-un-syria-resolution-has-threat-force-patrick-brennan
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The frilly knickers were presumably used as a marker so the dog owner(s) could identify their own turd. The alternative theory is presumably that the owners got bored while waiting for the dog to do its business...

    Or perhaps she (I assume it was a 'she') misunderstood the concept of 'dogging'?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    This is how mad Osborne's policy is

    @PhilAldrick @EdConwaySky House price to earnings ratio is above US and at Lawson Boom levels - see Fathom chart pic.twitter.com/fSHiVdcZvC

    Starting to pump up the bubble from Lawson boom levels, insane.

    Who will stop the enemy within?

    What's the difference between interest rates under Lawson and interest rates today (or at a normalised rate of, say, 5%)?

    Do you think that will have any bearing on affordability and hence on house prices?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Rather enjoying the Sunday Times economics editor David Smith's tweeting smackdown of Fraser Nelson for his bubble claims. Nelson getting a lesson.
  • Charles said:

    The frilly knickers were presumably used as a marker so the dog owner(s) could identify their own turd. The alternative theory is presumably that the owners got bored while waiting for the dog to do its business...

    Or perhaps she (I assume it was a 'she') misunderstood the concept of 'dogging'?
    "You must dog"?

    http://www.cbrd.co.uk/indepth/motoservices/img/13.jpg
    http://www.cbrd.co.uk/indepth/motoservices/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2013
    I dont think it a strategy. The Labour party shows very little evidence of any strategy on anything.

    It is just Labour sympathisers lashing out at possible allies. Friends? Who needs them?

    Meanwhile tim campaigns for the pet lovers vote.

    Off to see the mighty foxes thrash the FA cup holders. Well, there is a small chance!
    TGOHF said:

    Lots of red on orange attacks today - I assume ths is a strategy .

  • tim said:

    This is how mad Osborne's policy is
    @PhilAldrick @EdConwaySky House price to earnings ratio is above US and at Lawson Boom levels - see Fathom chart pic.twitter.com/fSHiVdcZvC
    Starting to pump up the bubble from Lawson boom levels, insane.

    Tim since the GE 2010 this ratio has bumped along at 140 from that graph. It actually reached 170 under Labour in Brown's far worse boom time "end of boom & bust" boast. Under Labour that 170 was the highest of any Govt shown on that graph going back to 1975. I may not agree with many of Osborne's actions on housing but he is doing a better job than Labour did. Not hard to do though.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    This is how mad Osborne's policy is

    @PhilAldrick @EdConwaySky House price to earnings ratio is above US and at Lawson Boom levels - see Fathom chart pic.twitter.com/fSHiVdcZvC

    Starting to pump up the bubble from Lawson boom levels, insane.

    Who will stop the enemy within?

    What's the difference between interest rates under Lawson and interest rates today (or at a normalised rate of, say, 5%)?

    Do you think that will have any bearing on affordability and hence on house prices?

    Of course it will this mad bubble's start point is with 0.5% base rates, making it even more reckless when rates rise to normal levels.

    House price to earnings ratio

    4.39 Oct 12
    4.63 Aug13

    Now Osborne is really going to try and pump it up.
    That's not the point you were making. Stop changing the argument.

    5x earnings when the cost of buying a house is 5% is more affordable than 5x earnings with a cost of financing of 10%

    Stop posting random tweets and stick to stuff you understand. Otherwise people might think you are turning into ScottP
  • @EdConwaySky shows his usual Labour bias by linking Lawson's peak with the current situation. @EdConwaySky omits to point out that it is well below Labour's!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Have you come up with a definition of bubble yet? I seem to have missed it.
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    This is how mad Osborne's policy is

    @PhilAldrick @EdConwaySky House price to earnings ratio is above US and at Lawson Boom levels - see Fathom chart pic.twitter.com/fSHiVdcZvC

    Starting to pump up the bubble from Lawson boom levels, insane.

    Who will stop the enemy within?

    What's the difference between interest rates under Lawson and interest rates today (or at a normalised rate of, say, 5%)?

    Do you think that will have any bearing on affordability and hence on house prices?

    Of course it will this mad bubble's start point is with 0.5% base rates, making it even more reckless when rates rise to normal levels.

  • tim said:

    tim said:

    This is how mad Osborne's policy is
    @PhilAldrick @EdConwaySky House price to earnings ratio is above US and at Lawson Boom levels - see Fathom chart pic.twitter.com/fSHiVdcZvC
    Starting to pump up the bubble from Lawson boom levels, insane.

    Tim since the GE 2010 this ratio has bumped along at 140 from that graph. It actually reached 170 under Labour in Brown's far worse boom time "end of boom & bust" boast. Under Labour that 170 was the highest of any Govt shown on that graph going back to 1975. I may not agree with many of Osborne's actions on housing but he is doing a better job than Labour did. Not hard to do though.
    Crash level is what he's deliberately aiming at, using taxpayers guarantees to achieve it.
    Very hard if not impossible to crash worse than under Labour.
  • Sky News .. Obama retains the milItary option.
  • Dunfermline Labour shortlist is

    Cara Hilton (Dunfermline South Cllr, daughter of former Falkirk East MSP Cathy Peattie, works for Dunfermline MP Thomas Docharty)
    Fiona Yates (daughter of Cowdenbeath MSP Helen Eadie and wife of a Kirkaldy Cllr)
    Lesley Laird (Fife Cllr, daughter of former STUC chairman John Langan)

    So we are back where we were: the Daughters of Devolution shortlist. The road to come back there is pretty bizarre but given how inept SLAB can be, you shouldn't be surprise. I am not sure I've reconstructed everything but I've a good idea.
  • Ed Conway is a total economic pr*t by anyones standards. it is a miracle that Sky still employ him
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    GIN, agreed, whatever. :) If I was a cynic, I would say that Lord Oakshott knows that he is guaranteed a wee round of media slots to wax lyrical about his own views if he regularly trots out a demand for Clegg or Osborne to go. :)
    GIN1138 said:

    I think Clegg will soldier on right up to the election. He and Cameron are quite similar politically.

    Didn't Lord Oakshott all but announce a leadership contest to be held in June 2014 after the EU/locals?

    Lord Oakshott has said a lot over the past three years and my general attitude to his musings is, "Whatever"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    This is how mad Osborne's policy is

    @PhilAldrick @EdConwaySky House price to earnings ratio is above US and at Lawson Boom levels - see Fathom chart pic.twitter.com/fSHiVdcZvC

    Starting to pump up the bubble from Lawson boom levels, insane.

    Who will stop the enemy within?

    What's the difference between interest rates under Lawson and interest rates today (or at a normalised rate of, say, 5%)?

    Do you think that will have any bearing on affordability and hence on house prices?

    Of course it will this mad bubble's start point is with 0.5% base rates, making it even more reckless when rates rise to normal levels.

    House price to earnings ratio

    4.39 Oct 12
    4.63 Aug13

    Now Osborne is really going to try and pump it up.
    That's not the point you were making. Stop changing the argument.

    5x earnings when the cost of buying a house is 5% is more affordable than 5x earnings with a cost of financing of 10%

    Stop posting random tweets and stick to stuff you understand. Otherwise people might think you are turning into ScottP
    So rates are never going to rise then.
    Pump up prices as high as you can before rates rise what happens to affordability when they inevitably go up?

    You did read my post?

    You noticed that I used 5% (which I view as a reasonable long term assumption of normal rates). Not 0.5%?

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    So what level of increase in the next year would be a bubble?

    By your definition we have been in a real estate bubble for most of my adult life!

    Mostly under Labour of course.
    tim said:

    Have you come up with a definition of bubble yet? I seem to have missed it.


    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    This is how mad Osborne's policy is

    @PhilAldrick @EdConwaySky House price to earnings ratio is above US and at Lawson Boom levels - see Fathom chart pic.twitter.com/fSHiVdcZvC

    Starting to pump up the bubble from Lawson boom levels, insane.

    Who will stop the enemy within?

    What's the difference between interest rates under Lawson and interest rates today (or at a normalised rate of, say, 5%)?

    Do you think that will have any bearing on affordability and hence on house prices?

    Of course it will this mad bubble's start point is with 0.5% base rates, making it even more reckless when rates rise to normal levels.

    This one will do

    "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property)."

    Arguably London is already there, SE catching up.

    And the Boy Chancellor has barely started.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited September 2013
    Even though Clegg clearly isn't the brightest button when it comes to strategy it's pushing credibility to think he would do anything other than give the same bland "I am here to stay" to the quad just like he has to for the press.

    Any statement other than that would be a clear invitation to massive speculation about leadership contests and the timing of the end of the coalition.

    Clegg and Cammie might not trust their MPs very much but after the Lords Reform/boundary changes and AV debacle even Clegg would have to have lost his mind to make private assurances to Cameron that he would then try to keep secret from his own ministers and could be used to destabilise him or his party at any time of Cammie and Osbrowne's choosing.

    Oakshott is making a statement of the blindingly obvious when he says Clegg is not an electoral asset. Clegg's utterly toxic personal ratings and the lib dems year on year hammering at the locals and hemorrhaging of their members and grassroots is not some fiction that can be credibly glossed over by incompetent and comical spinners.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Fitalass

    I shouldn't worry the RSPCA will keep the money coming in partly because of - not despite - it is trying to enforce the law.


    I don't know why Tories get so worked up about charities. What the hell happened to big society?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2013
    fitalass said:

    GIN, agreed, whatever. :) If I was a cynic, I would say that Lord Oakshott knows that he is guaranteed a wee round of media slots to wax lyrical about his own views if he regularly trots out a demand for Clegg or Osborne to go. :)

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Clegg will soldier on right up to the election. He and Cameron are quite similar politically.

    Didn't Lord Oakshott all but announce a leadership contest to be held in June 2014 after the EU/locals?

    Lord Oakshott has said a lot over the past three years and my general attitude to his musings is, "Whatever"
    Whatever..! - not cynical, it sums it up perfectly.

    The BBC has a list of runners and riders at the Lib Dem conference, here’s Lord Oakshott :

    “The City grandee and former economics spokesman has been a persistent thorn in Nick Clegg's side, regularly calling for him to quit to save the party from electoral oblivion. Once seen as Vince Cable's closest ally and mouthpiece, until the business secretary disowned his attacks.”

    That’s it - I seem to recall those ‘IT’ girls from yesteryear had more depth to their CVs.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,833
    Julia Gillard 'losing power hits you like a fist' http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/13/julia-gillard-losing-power-fist
  • Miss Fitalass, the site I recall seeing such unwanted arboreal ornaments was perhaps 50 feet, at most, away from a bin.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    IOS said:

    Fitalass

    I shouldn't worry the RSPCA will keep the money coming in partly because of - not despite - it is trying to enforce the law.


    I don't know why Tories get so worked up about charities. What the hell happened to big society?

    Rumour has it that they are going to nuke the U.N headquarters after the U.N called it `bedroom tax` rather than `spare room subsidy`.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,833
    FrankBooth - Previous thread, what do you mean all LDs are boring? Charles Kennedy, Paddy Ashdown, Lembit Opek, Jeremy Thorpe are many things, but boring is not one of them. Further back Lloyd-George is another example
  • Mr. SMukesh, it is reasonable to express doubts regarding the objectivity of someone sent to be a neutral party assessing a policy when, months before the conclusion is due, she attends events organised by opponents of the policy and only refers to it using the term preferred by those against it.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    edited September 2013

    Mr. SMukesh, it is reasonable to express doubts regarding the objectivity of someone sent to be a neutral party assessing a policy when, months before the conclusion is due, she attends events organised by opponents of the policy and only refers to it using the term preferred by those against it.

    But they didn`t attack her only on that basis.They also attacked her for being Brazilian, for Brazil`s housing policy and her religious views-a classic smear campaign.

    The government is becoming intolerant to any criticism-cue their attacks on RSCPCA,BBC etc etc.

    Their nasty side is showing and it`s not pretty.
  • IOS said:

    Fitalass

    I shouldn't worry the RSPCA will keep the money coming in partly because of - not despite - it is trying to enforce the law.


    I don't know why Tories get so worked up about charities. What the hell happened to big society?

    It's being sabotaged by left wing politicos who have taken over some of the larger charities, and are using them to advance their own agendas.

    The Girl Guides is another.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2401899/MELANIE-PHILLIPS-An-unholy-war-Girl-Guides-ALL-fight-secular-bigots.html

    and the National Trust.

    http://burningourmoney.blogspot.co.uk/2007/07/big-is-bad-stick-to-knitting.html

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Have you come up with a definition of bubble yet? I seem to have missed it.


    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    This is how mad Osborne's policy is

    @PhilAldrick @EdConwaySky House price to earnings ratio is above US and at Lawson Boom levels - see Fathom chart pic.twitter.com/fSHiVdcZvC

    Starting to pump up the bubble from Lawson boom levels, insane.

    Who will stop the enemy within?

    What's the difference between interest rates under Lawson and interest rates today (or at a normalised rate of, say, 5%)?

    Do you think that will have any bearing on affordability and hence on house prices?

    Of course it will this mad bubble's start point is with 0.5% base rates, making it even more reckless when rates rise to normal levels.

    This one will do

    "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property)."

    Arguably London is already there, SE catching up.

    And the Boy Chancellor has barely started.
    The problem with that is how do you define "unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators".

    I can absolutely accept that normal Brits are being priced out of London. But there is no sign that the current prices are unsustainable for the various oligarchs and potentates who buy P/SP property in London. Similarly, those Brits who used to buy in these areas are being displaced out, but they can afford higher prices for Fulham and Islington and the like.

    In my view the market clearing price has changed. That's not the same as a bubble.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SMukesh said:

    Mr. SMukesh, it is reasonable to express doubts regarding the objectivity of someone sent to be a neutral party assessing a policy when, months before the conclusion is due, she attends events organised by opponents of the policy and only refers to it using the term preferred by those against it.

    But they didn`t attack her only on that basis.They also attacked her for being Brazilian, for Brazil`s housing policy and her religious views-a classic smear campaign.

    The government is becoming intolerant to any criticism-cue their attacks on RSCPCA,BBC etc etc.

    Their nasty side is showing and it`s not pretty.
    TBF, I think that was Guido (who is nasty) not the Tory party.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    It might help if you could articulate a response that rises above a partisan dig at the Tories and actually showed you had some understanding of the reasons behind the current PR difficulties for the RSPCA.
    IOS said:

    Fitalass

    I shouldn't worry the RSPCA will keep the money coming in partly because of - not despite - it is trying to enforce the law.


    I don't know why Tories get so worked up about charities. What the hell happened to big society?

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    On the RSPCA

    Have people finally accepted that we aren't going to see a return of hunting. There is no appetite for it in the country or in parliament.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2013
    IOS said:

    On the RSPCA

    Have people finally accepted that we aren't going to see a return of hunting. There is no appetite for it in the country or in parliament.

    Small point. - But the only person to have mentioned hunting is you - and concern's that the RSPCA had become 'too political' and threaten the charity's future, was made by the RSPCA deputy leader.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013
    @tim

    House price to earnings ratio

    4.39 Oct 12
    4.63 Aug13

    Now Osborne is really going to try and pump it up.


    More uninformed twaddle from tim.

    There has been no substantive change in price to earnings ratios between the first quarter of 2007 (the height of the pre-crash boom) and the same quarter in 2013.

    The only change to note is that loans granted on unevidenced income has fallen from around 40% of total to less than 10%.

    See the following table from the latest Mortgage Lending Adminstration Return (MLAR) Report from the Bank of England.
    BoE MLAR Report: September 2013                                 
    2007 | 2013
    Q1 | Q1
    ------------------------------------------------|---------------
    Income multiple cum. | cum.
    Single: |
    Less than 2.50 9.20% 9.20% | 10.48% 10.48%
    2.50 < 3.00 5.88% 15.08% | 4.93% 15.42%
    3.00 < 3.50 8.14% 23.23% | 5.69% 21.10%
    3.50 < 4.00 7.31% 30.54% | 5.78% 26.89%
    4.00 or over 9.83% 40.37% | 10.07% 36.96%
    Other 9.82% 50.19% | 13.09% 50.04%
    Total on Single income 50.19% | 50.04%
    of which : Not evidenced 19.92% | 4.35%
    |
    Joint: |
    Less than 2.00 9.11% 9.11% | 9.47% 9.47%
    2.00 < 2.50 7.10% 16.21% | 7.12% 16.58%
    2.50 < 2.75 5.18% 21.38% | 4.26% 20.84%
    2.75 < 3.00 6.29 27.67% | 4.78% 25.63%
    3.00 or over 20.30% 47.97% | 23.12% 48.75%
    Other 1.84% 49.81% | 1.21% 49.96%
    Total on Joint income 49.81% | 49.96%
    of which : Not evidenced 19.38% | 5.15%
    The antidote to anecdote is data.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723

    IOS said:

    On the RSPCA

    Have people finally accepted that we aren't going to see a return of hunting. There is no appetite for it in the country or in parliament.

    Small point. - But the only person to have mentioned hunting is you - and concern's that the RSPCA had become 'too political' and threaten the charity's future, was made by the RSPCA deputy leader.
    The RSPCA were attacked by the government because they filmed Cameron`s local hunt and managed to successfully prosecute two people for killing foxes.
  • New Man U manager, same home decisions.
  • SMukesh said:

    IOS said:

    On the RSPCA

    Have people finally accepted that we aren't going to see a return of hunting. There is no appetite for it in the country or in parliament.

    Small point. - But the only person to have mentioned hunting is you - and concern's that the RSPCA had become 'too political' and threaten the charity's future, was made by the RSPCA deputy leader.
    The RSPCA were attacked by the government because they filmed Cameron`s local hunt and managed to successfully prosecute two people for killing foxes.
    You obviously have not read, or understood the article and the associated comments. Just as I’m sure the deputy leader of the RSPCA, is better informed than you to comment on the subject.
  • Mr. SMukesh, the very large amount of money expended upon that prosecution could've sheltered and fed a significant number of cats and dogs. It's entirely legitimate to criticise the decision on that basis, even disregarding other controversies the RSPCA has gotten itself into.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TGOHF said:

    The LDs saved the country from 5 more years of Labour - there is no higher achievement possible.

    In all seriousness they deserve a lot of credit for that.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013
    Charles said:

    SMukesh said:

    Mr. SMukesh, it is reasonable to express doubts regarding the objectivity of someone sent to be a neutral party assessing a policy when, months before the conclusion is due, she attends events organised by opponents of the policy and only refers to it using the term preferred by those against it.

    But they didn`t attack her only on that basis.They also attacked her for being Brazilian, for Brazil`s housing policy and her religious views-a classic smear campaign.

    The government is becoming intolerant to any criticism-cue their attacks on RSCPCA,BBC etc etc.

    Their nasty side is showing and it`s not pretty.
    TBF, I think that was Guido (who is nasty) not the Tory party.
    Charles

    She is from Brazil where the nuts come from!

    The only reason she is proposing that taxpayers subsidise spare bedrooms for benefit recipients is that she sees a need for a place to store voodoo dolls and conduct seances.

    Look at her. She wears pink spectacles!

  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    edited September 2013

    Mr. SMukesh, the very large amount of money expended upon that prosecution could've sheltered and fed a significant number of cats and dogs. It's entirely legitimate to criticise the decision on that basis, even disregarding other controversies the RSPCA has gotten itself into.

    It`s not the government`s job to tell the charity what to do with their money.And foxes are in no way less deserving than dogs and cats to be saved from a cruel death.

  • Mr. SMukesh, assuming you believe that dogs/cats and foxes have an equal right to life then you must be aghast that two foxes were not saved with such vast expenditure, when the money could've been used to rescue, house and feed a significant number of cats and dogs.

    Also, the criticism of the RSPCA in that case was from me. I'm not sure if the Government has issued a response.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SMukesh said:

    Mr. SMukesh, the very large amount of money expended upon that prosecution could've sheltered and fed a significant number of cats and dogs. It's entirely legitimate to criticise the decision on that basis, even disregarding other controversies the RSPCA has gotten itself into.

    It`s not the government`s job to tell the charity what to do with their money.And foxes are in no way less deserving than dogs and cats to be saved from a cruel death.

    Indeed. But why does the government underwrite the cost of failed prosecutions by the RSPCA?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SMukesh said:

    Mr. SMukesh, it is reasonable to express doubts regarding the objectivity of someone sent to be a neutral party assessing a policy when, months before the conclusion is due, she attends events organised by opponents of the policy and only refers to it using the term preferred by those against it.

    But they didn`t attack her only on that basis.They also attacked her for being Brazilian, for Brazil`s housing policy and her religious views-a classic smear campaign.

    The government is becoming intolerant to any criticism-cue their attacks on RSCPCA,BBC etc etc.

    Their nasty side is showing and it`s not pretty.
    Strange, you claim its a classic smear campaign and profess it shows the Tories are "nasty"

    Yet, you ignore all of Labours smearing over the years and continue to vote for them.

    So, what does that say about you?
  • There really is a case to be made that SLAB pols do best when they keep their traps permanently zipped.

    'A UK Labour government would reverse housing benefit changes, the party's Scottish welfare spokeswoman has said.
    Jackie Baillie told BBC Radio Scotland an announcement on the issue would be made soon.
    Labour has not set out its policy on cuts to the subsidy for people with unused spare rooms but has called on the UK coalition to drop the changes.
    However, a Labour source has told BBC Scotland that Ms Baillie has "gone a bit too far".'

    http://tinyurl.com/ph9437n
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,299
    McBride, Woolas, Brown hardly three of Labour's nice guys.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    Twitter
    Tim Reid ‏@TimReidBBC 6m
    Labour says no change in its position re #bedroomtax or spare room subsidy despite Jackie Baillie claim. Wants to drop it-not a commitment.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,994

    IOS said:

    Fitalass

    I shouldn't worry the RSPCA will keep the money coming in partly because of - not despite - it is trying to enforce the law.


    I don't know why Tories get so worked up about charities. What the hell happened to big society?

    It's being sabotaged by left wing politicos who have taken over some of the larger charities, and are using them to advance their own agendas.

    The Girl Guides is another.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2401899/MELANIE-PHILLIPS-An-unholy-war-Girl-Guides-ALL-fight-secular-bigots.html

    and the National Trust.

    http://burningourmoney.blogspot.co.uk/2007/07/big-is-bad-stick-to-knitting.html

    You don't wonder ...... perish the thought ...... if the public has in fact become more liberal/left on such matters and it's the objectors who are out of step?

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2013
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Tim Reid ‏@TimReidBBC 6m
    Labour says no change in its position re #bedroomtax or spare room subsidy despite Jackie Baillie claim. Wants to drop it-not a commitment.

    Well, the BBC are yet to catch up - they are still going with “Labour 'will abolish bedroom tax' claims Jackie Baillie”

    And just in case you are wondering which line Aunty is pushing, on the 'room subsidy' or 'bedroom tax' they provided a helpful photo caption.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-24090772
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,299
    When the world drops out of your bottom...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24091683

    So why not have the green benches of The Palace of Westminster on vinyl?
  • Blackburn extend their 34 year unbeaten run against Burnley with today's 1-1 draw. It's incredible to think OGH was still in short trousers when the Clarets last prevailed against their old enemy in 1979.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    If there is a complaint about a fox hunt - do the police have to carry out horse to horse inquiries?
  • Ed leads, the world follows!

    Iain Dale@IainDale

    RT @GlenysKinnock: Excellent Russian and US Syria deal would not have happened without Ed Miliband and the Labour vote on 29 August. > LMFAO
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Next said:

    If there is a complaint about a fox hunt - do the police have to carry out horse to horse inquiries?

    only if enquiries are lead by inspector Brian Paddock.
  • SMukesh said:

    Mr. SMukesh, it is reasonable to express doubts regarding the objectivity of someone sent to be a neutral party assessing a policy when, months before the conclusion is due, she attends events organised by opponents of the policy and only refers to it using the term preferred by those against it.

    But they didn`t attack her only on that basis.They also attacked her for being Brazilian, for Brazil`s housing policy and her religious views-a classic smear campaign.

    The government is becoming intolerant to any criticism-cue their attacks on RSCPCA,BBC etc etc.

    Their nasty side is showing and it`s not pretty.
    Leaving aside your rant, let us take one thing the RSPCA has been criticised for recently. Is it right that they have (even limited) access to police records?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10234259/RSPCA-inspectors-given-access-to-unprecedented-personal-infomration-by-one-in-four-police-forces.html

    Can you justify this in any way, if it is true? If the RSPCA is allowed access to criminal records in this manner, why not other groups and charities?

    Criticisms are not automatically valid just because they come from the other side of the political fence.
  • Next said:

    If there is a complaint about a fox hunt - do the police have to carry out horse to horse inquiries?

    Groan. - Two weeks at ConHome for you me lad - off you go...! :-)
  • I lived and worked in Boulder during the first three months of 2011. My apartment block was just a few yards from Boulder Creek.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24068804
  • Next said:

    If there is a complaint about a fox hunt - do the police have to carry out horse to horse inquiries?

    Groan. - Two weeks at ConHome for you me lad - off you go...! :-)
    No need to be such a neigh-sayer!
  • Re Syria.. I rather fancy the negotiations took place because there is still a plausible threat of the US striking Assad.
    I get the impression the Russians want to get rid of that nutter too.
    Who TF is Ed Milliband
  • Re Syria.. I rather fancy the negotiations took place because there is still a plausible threat of the US striking Assad.
    I get the impression the Russians want to get rid of that nutter too.
    Who TF is Ed Milliband

    Get rid of Assad and you let in the nutters supported by Al Qaeda.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    I lived and worked in Boulder during the first three months of 2011. My apartment block was just a few yards from Boulder Creek.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24068804

    Did you enjoy Colorado as somewhere to live? And how did the interview go?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,141
    edited September 2013

    You don't wonder ...... perish the thought ...... if the public has in fact become more liberal/left on such matters and it's the objectors who are out of step?

    I'm not sure it's a question of the NT being (lefty-)liberal, it seems to be that they are running a political campaign. It would be just as bad if they were to campaign against IHT - which would, in fact, have the result of preserving old buildings. Maybe they need to set up a political fund so that members have the option of choosing to fund the campaign or not.

    The Mail article shows that Melanie Phillips is suffering from a bad case of paranoia, which of course we already knew. But while pursuing a left-liberal agenda, the Guides are in danger of making themselves less liberal, as individual troops (packs?) are required to use the new form of words. It seems to be anathema that individual troops could choose to do different things. Maybe this is nothing other than the Guides adopting modern top-down corporatism, though.
  • Get rid of Assad and you let in the nutters supported by Al Qaeda.

    The ideal would be (i) ally with some Syrian "moderate" opposition who hate al Qaeda as much as we do (ii) get rid of Assad (iii) conspire with the moderates to waste the nutters.

    Don't think current Western strategy is aimed at such a happy result, though.

  • JonathanD said:

    I lived and worked in Boulder during the first three months of 2011. My apartment block was just a few yards from Boulder Creek.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24068804

    Did you enjoy Colorado as somewhere to live? And how did the interview go?
    Yes I thought it was great. Still have fond memories walking up into the hills overlooking the town and taking pictures. Denver was a one-hour bus ride away (free travel for University workers!). Managed to "do" Denver's light rail network, though never got round to riding on the Amtrak to Chicago or LA!

    Thanks for asking but interviews are next week, Monday and Wednesday.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'Of course it will this mad bubble's start point is with 0.5% base rates, making it even more reckless when rates rise to normal levels.'

    At least we can all agree that a Labour government would be pursuing an identical policy.
  • Get rid of Assad and you let in the nutters supported by Al Qaeda.

    The ideal would be (i) ally with some Syrian "moderate" opposition who hate al Qaeda as much as we do (ii) get rid of Assad (iii) conspire with the moderates to waste the nutters.

    Don't think current Western strategy is aimed at such a happy result, though.

    Everything's black and white - can't believe Obama on the day of the 9/11 Commemoration spoke of effectively backing people allied to those who sent the hijackers to wreak havoc in New York and DC.
This discussion has been closed.