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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ashcroft poll of London suggests TMay’s Tories should expe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ashcroft poll of London suggests TMay’s Tories should expect a hammering in May
There’s a new 3,060 sample London poll from Lord Ashcroft in the Evening Standard which points to the blue team facing a struggle for the blue team in the capital to hold onto to all the council that it runs . Three are highlighted, Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster, as being ones which could fall. The Tories could also struggle in SW London where it is defending Kingston and Richmond from the LDs.
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https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/a-tale-of-two-brexit-speeches-and-an-eu-protocol-the-epilogue
Of course the Tories will be hammered there. But this has little significance for national politics.
Labour will win the London elections easily but they already hold 20 out of 32 councils there, the Tories only hold 9 and they are all largely Tory strongholds with the exceptions of Wandsworth and Barnet and Kingston upon Thames
Maybe a couple of hard left councils in London will seek to educate those who don’t remember the 1970s.
https://twitter.com/petenorth303/status/970652892708392961
What will Corbyn do to help young people in London buy a house? From what I’ve seen so far prices might fall, but no-one needing a mortgage is going to get more than 50% LTV as the money races out of London. Great for institutional and foreign investors who will buy at the bottom though.
http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI
It's still going to be a terrible night for the Tories in London, of course, but we already knew that.
Four of the top ten (and two of the top three) EU>Non-EU city pairs involve London and the USA, there will be a deal no matter what happens, neither country can afford for there not to be one.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_passenger_air_routes
If countries A and B are EU members and do not have recognition for each other's regulations, how can both agree to recognise the UK's regulations?
FWIW I don't think your summary of his article is accurate. He is merely saying that TM's position of 'comprehensive system of mutual recognition' is not possible.
In one of the comments on the article - he makes clear that there is some limited mutual recognition in the Canada deal - so he's not saying 'no mutual recognition is possible'.
Dozens of new abuse allegations reported by 26 UK aid charities in past three weeks, Penny Mordaunt says - but regulator keeps them secret
https://twitter.com/AndreaChalupa/status/970662450591883265
If all he means is that we won't get everything we want, then he's right. That doesn't mean that we'll get nothing, or that it's wrong to ask for more than the EU is happy to accept. In the end, it will come down to how 'comprehensive' the 'comprehensive system of mutual recognition' actually is, and what mechanisms will be put in place to manage divergence. My personal guess, as I've said many times both before and after the referendum, is that in practice we won't deviate to any significant degree from EU standards; the debate is really about how to codify this whilst retaining the illusion of sovereignty so beloved of the Ultras.
On the other side of the coin, the Cons might be hoping for gains in the W Midlands if they can build on Andy Street's performance last year. Newcastle-Under-Lyme could be one to watch as it is all up.
While the media are all based in London they are going to under-report results elsewhere, it could well be that we Blues gain seats and councils around the country - but the media narrative will be that we lost a couple of boroughs in the capital.
1/3 up, the Labour council really are pissing off a lot of people with their tree cutting.
Lib Dem revival anyone?
Our electoral system?
** runs and hides **
Therefore I think they are less economically oriented (If you're rich you can afford Corbyn; if you're poor then you don't have much to lose), and more socially oriented voters.
It's the middle B,C where economic arguments have the most effect I think..
My current guilty pleasure is a decent cortado. No true Londoner has chocolate sprinkles. That's definitely an out of towner thing to do!
South Lakeland and Eastleigh - LD defending against Con
South Cambs and Harrogate - Con defending against LD
It says our deal will be worse than now.
You won. Suck it up!
Coffee is black or white.
The Conservatives may well pick up seats in Dudley and Walsall, but I don't see any councils changing hands in the West Midlands conurbation.
The Conservatives should also gain Thurrock and Basildon.
The English are very prone to taking delicious dishes from abroad and turning them into the sort of mush you find in some of the less nice old peoples' homes. Pineapple on pizza, for instance; chocolate on cappuccino - which barely tastes of coffee at all in any case; spag Bol which is usually some overcooked pasta with a bit of mince and tomato paste on top (the horror!).
Here is the defence map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_City_Council_election,_2014
Once we are not subject to EU any more there will be questions as to whether or not our regulation of financial services, for example, meets the EU standards. If it does then mutual recognition of the decisions and authorisations by the respective authorities is possible. If they start to differ over time then a view would have to be taken as to how material those differences were.
What I thought May recognised, and I was surprised she went as far as she did, was that a FTA of the sort she is contemplating requires ongoing regulatory convergence going forward and she expressly recognised that not converging in that way might imperil the FTA, at least in that sector, going forward. That seemed to me to be logical but surprising as it could easily be portrayed as a Norway type situation where we either choose to adopt EU regulation or we lose market access.
1) will Brexit fallout alter levels of enthusiasm for voting (on either side)? I can imagine furious Remainers being particularly keen to go out and send a message.
2) as Labour becomes less a party of the working class, will its turnout in local elections improve?
3) or, as the Conservatives get steadily more geriatric, will their voter base become keener on turning out for local elections?
I can still break out in a cold sweat about "well done" (cremated) beef, and vegetables boiled to death, which my grandparents generation seemed to enjoy.
Afternoon all. How good would it be to get some local elections polling away from London? Perhaps the Good Lord A is holding it back, but as others have said how about some more coverage elsewhere?
Eastleigh may be tricky for the LDs but not because of the parliamentary vote - there has been a falling out involving defections over the Local Plan, and I can't imagine that will help cohesive campaigining.
I think Labour could lose seats in Manchester. They are all up on new boundaries. They can only have one of their weakest candidates miss out to go backwards, and although I don't have info (other than the Lib Dems hoping for a handful) they are fighting on so many bases that I would be surprised if they all win. Could be quite a media story if it's significant.
Anyone reading the recent FT article with McDonnell could hardly think that he will be a social democratic Chancellor.
Jones's question is a good one though: why has social democracy lost its charm? The answers might not, though, be to his tastes, given the sorts of parties voters are turning to.
Incidentally I thought she made one particularly interesting point on regulation:
The UK has responsibility for the financial stability of the world’s most significant financial centre, and our taxpayers bear the risk, so it would be unrealistic for us to implement new EU legislation automatically and in its entirety.
But with UK located banks underwriting around half of the debt and equity issued by EU companies and providing more than £1.1 trillion of cross-border lending to the rest of the EU in 2015 alone, this is a clear example of where only looking at precedent would hurt both the UK and EU economies.
The media is full of speculation about the new European president. Probably within a week the way will be open for the new appointment.
Sadly the Irish Yes vote to the Lisbon Treaty leaves only the Czech government with any power in the situation. The Czech Republic has suffered grievously from invasions and clearly values its sovereignty. It has rejected the US missile defence system and its desire for independence in foreign policy may well lead to a rejection of the Lisbon Treaty. But, should President Vaclav Klaus allow the treaty to pass, the door will be opened to a new president of Europe.
The position is a sort of executive head of the government of Europe. He or she is to be “elected” for two-and-half years and would be allowed to seek re-election for a second term. The president is supposed to operate by consensus to ensure “continuity” in European policy-making. Working almost in parallel will be another new position, that of foreign affairs and security representative.
The European Union has always suffered a serious democratic deficit and the new positions would make the situation even worse. For all the talk of the new leader’s “election,” the situation is more akin to the College of Cardinals electing a new Pope. The 25 heads of government will meet and agree by a majority who the new president will be. Thus, 13 heads of government can elect a president for the entire continent. The European Parliament will have no say, national parliaments will have no say and perish the thought that the people should have any say.
The creation of the post of president is a triumph for the tenacity of the European long-sighters. The project has always been to create a ... Europe, with ever-limiting powers for national parliaments and an increasingly powerful common foreign and security policy.The proposed European constitution met a swift end when it was rejected in France by people concerned about the marketisation of Europe and the explicit limiting of the public enterprise role of national governments. But the European council of ministers was undeterred. It set about creating the much more innocuous-sounding Lisbon Treaty.
In reality it is little different from its predecessor. It, too, requires member states to subscribe to a common foreign and defence policy
...
Post-Lisbon, the European president and the foreign and security representative will have enormous and largely unaccountable powers.
Tony Benn famously described democracy and accountability to a Labour Party conference by advising us to ask three questions of all leaders:
“From where do you derive your authority? In whose interests to do you deliver it? How do we remove you from office?”
Wise words indeed.
Mr. tpfkar, ha. Next you'll be expecting EU coverage to include views of people outside the Metropolitan bubble
Edited extra bit: ahem, Elizabethan*
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/970567681064820736
1) would these be the same furious remainers who got the Lib Dems, the only party pushing for a second referendum, up to the giddy heights of 7% at the GE last year? I see very little evidence that Brexit is actually a motivation for anyone other than a tiny minority.
2) Labour stopped being a working class party at least 20 years ago with New Labour. Its problem, like the Democrats in the US, is persuading its traditional supporters that they understand them at all and are worth turning out for.
3) Probably not more than it does already.
I suppose I could vote Lib Dem as a sort of electoral pity-fuck. Or I could wash my hair that day.
I think I'd go for the 'Theresa May' explanation. After all, until May 2017 Labour looked as though it was going down the plughole in a quite spectacular manner.
Still echoes of it on this board with the sneering about London coffee - as if the best we should aspire to is a cup of instant/charred gerbil without accusations of pretentiousness.
But before Conservatives become too smug, they have similar problems, with traditional-values voters in steady retreat and intellectual free marketeers a minority taste. Even more than Labour, they have an identity crisis to the point that it's hard to determine what they're for, except for keeping Labour out.
WRT coffee, I draw the line at drinking weasel vomit or civet cat excrement.
Good food is one of the great pleasures of life. If you had tasted my mother's bolognese, mmmm!! - you would not put up with what passes for it here. It is not zealotry. It is wanting to repeat sensuous pleasures.
I have always been one for simple food, well cooked. Cheaper, better quality, quick to prepare.