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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Case Not Proven: The suggestion that there’s been a LAB>CON shift amongst women
With the apparent sharpish shifts that we’ve seen in recent days in the polls to the Conservatives there has, inevitably, been a lot of examination of the detailed data.
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https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/feb/12/metoo-strikes-aid-sector-as-sexual-exploitation-allegations-proliferate
This does not seem entirely surprising to me. As we discussed in the previous thread, the relationship between aid worker and recipient is one of great power imbalance and without proper systems of safeguarding, abuses are highly likely to occur.
In a manner similar to the abuse scandals in schools last century, it seems that the management of many of these organisation preferred not to know.
The reported decision to "recall" Mr Zuma followed marathon talks by senior party officials that continued into the early hours of Tuesday."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-43039928
TM's a dead woman walking. It can't go on like this, yet it does. Until it doesn't.
When she's finally ousted, the new PM - who will have won the leadership by offering a radically different prospectus - will need a mandate.
IMO, it's 1/2 they'll be forced into an election within the year.
~Evens the next GE before 2020.
https://twitter.com/far_right_watch/status/962848109494788096
Those who support aid (as I do) ought to be every bit as concerned with how it is delivered, and its effectiveness, as those who do not.
These women have clearly found the charms of Penny Mordaunt, future Prime Minister, impossible to resist.
Yougov's finding with a marginal difference is much more credible. Of course that is not to say that their finding of a Tory lead was right either....
A lot of ageing females probably identify with Teresa` s resilience and if the Tories replace her that might have a negative impact on them
I have a little doubt that history will judge May as the worse PM ever however it is risky for Tories to replace her when they are over 40% in the polls
The 2001 report on sexual exploitation of West African refugees linked in the Guardian article lists extensive abuse by aid workers, peacekeepers and civilians such as miners, but were locally engaged staff.
Aid organisations get criticised for spending too much on admin, yet sound admin is the core of good internal governance. It is challenging to have good practice in this country. How much harder is it to have it in a country where the authorities are venal, corrupt and abusive themselves? The idea that the Haitian police would have taken effective action in 2011 is delusional.
The Aid industry has long debated these issues and there is an extensive literature. In particular I would recommend as an eye opener "Lords of Poverty" by Graham Hancock, and "White Mans burden" by Easterly.
Thinking hard the Tories got some bad publicity about the cuts in funding to women's refuges 3-4 weeks ago. I would be astonished if that was still having a significant impact. Anything else?
Women are in lower paid work, and more likely to have frequent use of public services such as schools, NHS and adult social care for themselves and their families. These frame their world view more than Brexit trivia.
*diversity at the top can be very superficial. Female and BME for example, but still rich and privately educated in the main. This is true of all parties and organisations.
I think Mike, unusually, underestimates Mumsnet. The question of gender identity has become extremely highly charged among those who care about it and Labour have found themselves on the wrong side of Mumsnet opinion on the subject. It occupies the “asylum seeker in £1.2 million house” slot of public debate: something that is highly marginal in reality but that acts as an emblem of what many see as something very wrong with the world.
Elsewhere on Mumsnet right now there’s a vigorous debate about whether a man who persists in showering naked in the men’s communal area of the changing rooms at a local swimming pool should be stopped from doing so when children are present. The consensus seems to be that he’s a deviant, despite that fact that so far as I can tell he is using the facilities exactly as they are designed. Self-identification as a woman needs to be understood against that background.
I don’t think we’re yet seeing an anti-trans swing to the Tories. It is, however, possible that Labour are alienating some potential supporters on this subject.
I am very doubtful there has been such a significant change.
Oxfam will inevitably attract such people then. The question therefore is not whether Oxfam has employed such abusers but what it has done to stop them and what actions it has taken after the fact. So far the evidence seems to suggest that Oxfam have taken the matter seriously (as compared with other bodies in a similar position) but not seriously enough and at times have been more concerned about their short term reputation than the long term harm.
At least, according to some on here ...
I think there's an element here of Tory supporters wanting to believe that it is the case.
The economy is still doing OK, she is gradually making progress in negotiations with the EU on Brexit while respecting the Leave vote and she has not involved the UK in any disastrous wars
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election
Of course, if laying 70-80% directly were possible that'd be easier, but Betfair doesn't have that specific band and the Ladbrokes Exchange doesn't have the market at all (that I can see).
(I guess not with him only as leader; as PM he might introduce some more union-friendly policies).
"Unilever has threatened to withdraw ads from platforms like Google and Facebook if they do not do enough to police extremist and illegal content.
Unilever said consumer trust in social media is now at a new low.
"We cannot have an environment where our consumers don't trust what they see online," said Unilever's chief marketing officer Keith Weed."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43032241
In this case I am wondering whether differential turnout may apply. Younger women say they are more likely to vote than younger men.
I’m sure Labour in power would seek to repeal most of the last 40 years of union reform legislation though, bringing back wildcat sympathy strikes and show of hands ballots.
(Remember that the advertisers are their customers, those who use their services are the product).
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/02/13/world/politics-diplomacy-world/italys-ex-premier-berlusconi-campaigns-populism-moves-prevent-5-star-movement-gaining-power/#.WoKsuxCKreQ
In the 1970s, most married women were still housewives. They would have likely been responsible for spending the household budget, and worried about inflation and the overbearing effect of trade unions on their husbands. Meanwhile, for many working-class
men, trade unionism and blue-collar heavy industry was still a major part of their identity.
Fast-forward to today, and working women are more concerned with
workplace fairness/ equality, affordable childcare, education and the NHS,
so are probably more likely to find Corbyn's messages attractive with his past utterances on defence/terrorism either irrelevant or a historical curiosity. Working class men will be more likely to think it says a lot about him.
https://twitter.com/captainmfp/status/963208357241917440
But is that a good thing despite Brexit or a bad thing because of Brexit ?
Although that does raise an interesting echo chamber question. Does rising social media use entrench political perspectives (compared to the recent past) or lead to higher 'shy' voting, whereby action and stated intentions differ?
But whatever, the transgender issue is totally irrelevant to how women vote.
Women are more likely to be influenced by economic issues.
Now we just need Monaco to do likewise...
Monaco is way too small for the modern F1 cars, but there's no chance of that race ever changing. Qualifying is always great to watch there though, as the grid position is so important. Still upset with Jenson Button for spoiling my No SC bet last year though
I very nearly had a 200/1 winner in Azerbaijan, having backed Perez each way for the win. Another needless collision cost me that.
The race was entertaining, but farcical too.
Incidentally, Ladbrokes has a market on fastest car in the first test. My current inclination is to avoid it at all costs.
I read somewhere in the last couple of days that the Army and Navy teams get around 30 callouts a year to genuine unexploded bombs, plus no doubt loads of others that are less dangerous.