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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What LAB has not factored in is that TMay’s successor will get a huge polling boost and won’t surely be as bad

Great news for the Tories from @StephenKB Team Corbyn is complacent about the polls & thinks that next time will be like last time https://t.co/XrhciDtzI7

Read the full story here

RobD

Ahhhh, complacency feels so good.

tlg86

Even Martin Schulz got a boost in the polls!

Foxy

Hmm. Remind me how that May "honeymoon" poll boost ended...

RobD

Foxy said:

Hmm. Remind me how that May "honeymoon" poll boost ended...

Something to do with the dire election campaign, perhaps?

IanB2

Depends who it is. I can't see JRM getting much of a polling boost and any honeymoon would not last beyond his character and opinions entering the radar of those who don't follow politics.

And timing is of course everything.

TheJezziah

I do think in part it was the energy of Corbyn's campaign that made May's look even worse by comparison. Not that it wasn't a bad campaign but the general ideas (not manifesto) were not exactly out of the ordinary. Will the next Conservative leader just do a normal campaign far better with a bit more voter interaction or a different approach?

Foxy

tlg86 said:

Even Martin Schulz got a boost in the polls!

Vince Cable didn't!

OldKingCole

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control. And responsible.

Nigelb

But how long do we expect a new Tory leader to be in office before the next election ?
Too long, and it could go all Gordon Brown; to little time and it would look remarkably cynical persisting with May - and leaves open the possibility that she might cling on. It's going to be quite a difficult balancing act to pull off.

Yes, Labour are complacent, but an easy Tory handover to the next leader is not a given.

JackW

I contend that the only sustainable polling boost for the Conservatives would be the election as leader of a Scottish peer of impeccable credentials.

As is widely noted in the right circles .... Scottish nobles do it better ....

RobD

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

And horrendous queues? I doubt they get many other planes arriving from outside Schengen anyway. Not sure it'll be any different.

RobD

JackW said:

I contend that the only sustainable polling boost for the Conservatives would be the election as leader of a Scottish peer of impeccable credentials.

As is widely noted in the right circles .... Scottish nobles do it better ....

Hear, hear! It's been too long since we've had a PM from upstairs.

OldKingCole

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

RobD

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

JackW

RobD said:

JackW said:

I contend that the only sustainable polling boost for the Conservatives would be the election as leader of a Scottish peer of impeccable credentials.

As is widely noted in the right circles .... Scottish nobles do it better ....

Hear, hear! It's been too long since we've had a PM from upstairs.

Your morning contribution has much to commend it.

RobD

JackW said:

RobD said:

JackW said:

I contend that the only sustainable polling boost for the Conservatives would be the election as leader of a Scottish peer of impeccable credentials.

As is widely noted in the right circles .... Scottish nobles do it better ....

Hear, hear! It's been too long since we've had a PM from upstairs.

Your morning contribution has much to commend it.

Late evening here Perhaps too late....

IanB2

Lead is also why laying Corbyn as next PM is a great bet.

OldKingCole

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

alex.

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

You can’t miss the reference on the front of the Guardian.

alex.

The leaked Telegraph “memo” apparently says that Corbyn is “open to NI border fix”. Any chance he says what that “fix” is?

RobD

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Why is it more complicated than that? Is leaving the EU going to make the UK's testing regime more lax or something?

OldKingCole

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out..
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Found it https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/08/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-wave-of-red-tape-for-uk-drivers-and-hauliers

And thanks Alex.

ydoethur

alex. said:

The leaked Telegraph “memo” apparently says that Corbyn is “open to NI border fix”. Any chance he says what that “fix” is?

A fix of whatever he was on when he came up with his education policies would do nicely. It clearly causes awkward problems with reality to dissolve into a mellow haze of smugness and ignorance.

RobD

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out..
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Found it https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/08/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-wave-of-red-tape-for-uk-drivers-and-hauliers

That doesn't explain why they are doing it. I suspect it's just out of spite.

Foxy

alex. said:

The leaked Telegraph “memo” apparently says that Corbyn is “open to NI border fix”. Any chance he says what that “fix” is?

Presumably it is from remaining in the Customs Union, as he said he was open to yesterday.

Corbyn is refreshingly unideological about the EU.

ydoethur

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Why is it more complicated than that? Is leaving the EU going to make the UK's testing regime more lax or something?

Our driving licences are accepted in the US and Australia within certain limits. It really would be astoundingly petty of the EU not to apply equivalence, and it might actually be illegal under WTO rules on non-tariff barriers.

(Not of course that a former French minister of agriculture and a former prime minister of the world tax evasion capital will give a monkey's fart about the law, but it would lose them what is left of the moral high ground they have so asssiduously occupied.)

RobD

ydoethur said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Why is it more complicated than that? Is leaving the EU going to make the UK's testing regime more lax or something?

Our driving licences are accepted in the US and Australia within certain limits. It really would be astoundingly petty of the EU not to apply equivalence, and it might actually be illegal under WTO rules on non-tariff barriers.

(Not of course that a former French minister of agriculture and a former prime minister of the world tax evasion capital will give a monkey's fart about the law, but it would lose them what is left of the moral high ground they have so asssiduously occupied.)

Astoundingly petty? Hm, nailed on for it to happen then.

RobD

Foxy said:

alex. said:

The leaked Telegraph “memo” apparently says that Corbyn is “open to NI border fix”. Any chance he says what that “fix” is?

Presumably it is from remaining in the Customs Union, as he said he was open to yesterday.

Corbyn is refreshingly unideological about the EU.

Isn't his position being in a customs union, rather than "the" customs union?

JackW

JackW said:

RobD said:

JackW said:

I contend that the only sustainable polling boost for the Conservatives would be the election as leader of a Scottish peer of impeccable credentials.

As is widely noted in the right circles .... Scottish nobles do it better ....

Hear, hear! It's been too long since we've had a PM from upstairs.

Your morning contribution has much to commend it.

PBers taming the colonies also has much to commend it ..

OldKingCole

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out..
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Found it https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/08/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-wave-of-red-tape-for-uk-drivers-and-hauliers

That doesn't explain why they are doing it. I suspect it's just out of spite.

No; read the article.

RobD

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out..
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Found it https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/08/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-wave-of-red-tape-for-uk-drivers-and-hauliers

That doesn't explain why they are doing it. I suspect it's just out of spite.

No; read the article.

I don't see any argument as to why they wouldn't agree to continue recognising licenses. If someone can travel in the EU with their US license, I seriously doubt there will be any problem for someone from the UK doing the same.

I also note that the Guardian states:

" but in an EU notice issued last month, the European commission said: “A driving licence issued by the United Kingdom will no longer be recognised by the member states.”

whereas the memo actually states:

"The recognition of driving licences issued by third countries is not addressed in Union law but regulated at Member States level."

ydoethur

Foxy said:

alex. said:

The leaked Telegraph “memo” apparently says that Corbyn is “open to NI border fix”. Any chance he says what that “fix” is?

Presumably it is from remaining in the Customs Union, as he said he was open to yesterday.

Corbyn is refreshingly unideological about the EU.

Corbyn is unideological about everything.

What I don't think people quite understand about him is that he is always somebody who will say whatever he thinks will play well with his core vote. For most of his life, that's been the hard left, and has led him to support Venezuela, Iran, and the Soviet Union as well as nationalisation, council housing etc while opposing tuition fees, Iraq, bank bailouts etc.

When it became the wider country, he flip-flopped with remarkable rapidity. Welfare cuts spring to mind, but trident, police numbers and NATO also have a place.

Now he realises he needs a wider base, he's rowing back on some of his other pledges e.g. on student debt because he realises that he needs to appear credible as well as desirable. This goes a long way to explaining his confusion on the EU - he's got two core votes with irreconcilable views and cannot decide between them.

The key difference between Blair and Corbyn is that Blair was at least intelligent. This is why I keep comparing the latter to Trump.

OldKingCole

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out..
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Found it https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/08/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-wave-of-red-tape-for-uk-drivers-and-hauliers

That doesn't explain why they are doing it. I suspect it's just out of spite.

No; read the article.

I don't see any argument as to why they wouldn't agree to continue recognising licenses. If someone can travel in the EU with their US license, I seriously doubt there will be any problem for someone from the UK doing the same.

I also note that the Guardian states:

" but in an EU notice issued last month, the European commission said: “A driving licence issued by the United Kingdom will no longer be recognised by the member states.”

whereas the memo actually states:

"The recognition of driving licences issued by third countries is not addressed in Union law but regulated at Member States level."

Noted. Could as you said be Project Fear. Think there's a still an issue over hauliers though.

RobD

OldKingCole said:

Noted. Could as you said be Project Fear. Think there's a still an issue over hauliers though.

I would like to see the treaty that states the UK can only send 103 lorry loads of goods abroad per year.

Foxy

RobD said:

Foxy said:

alex. said:

The leaked Telegraph “memo” apparently says that Corbyn is “open to NI border fix”. Any chance he says what that “fix” is?

Presumably it is from remaining in the Customs Union, as he said he was open to yesterday.

Corbyn is refreshingly unideological about the EU.

Isn't his position being in a customs union, rather than "the" customs union?

Customs Union means Customs Union, to coin a phrase.

CarlottaVance

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

Te economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

Ilt for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Found it https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/08/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-wave-of-red-tape-for-uk-drivers-and-hauliers

That doesn't explain why they are doing it. I suspect it's just out of spite.

No; read the article.

I don't see any argument as to why they wouldn't agree to continue recognising licenses. If someone can travel in the EU with their US license, I seriously doubt there will be any problem for someone from the UK doing the same.

I also note that the Guardian states:

" but in an EU notice issued last month, the European commission said: “A driving licence issued by the United Kingdom will no longer be recognised by the member states.”

whereas the memo actually states:

"The recognition of driving licences issued by third countries is not addressed in Union law but regulated at Member States level."

Simple. A member state refuses to recognise UK licences, we refuse to recognise theirs. Similarly if the EU tries to 'ground British planes' how many Air France or Lufthansa flights do you expect at Heathrow?

This whole 'queues at Malaga airport' would happen whether or not we were leaving the EU and is down to us not being in Schengen - so Irish passengers will be facing 'queues at Malaga airport' too.

Dura_Ace

IanB2 said:

Depends who it is. I can't see JRM getting much of a polling boost and any honeymoon would not last beyond his character and opinions entering the radar of those who don't follow politics.

And timing is of course everything.

JRM is a British Trump. He will be massively polarising but will do well with the type of person that drives a P-reg Corsa with an odd coloured door because he will appear aggrieved on their behalf.

CarlottaVance

On topic - this is precisely why Mrs May should stay in post now - get Brexit largely out of the way and retire to the applause of a grateful nation or exit stage right to opprobrium depending on the outcome. Then let her successor take the fight to Corbyn - who will have been Labour leader seven years by 2022 - longest of any first elected this Century. Those agitating for May's removal now are silly billies...

Richard_Tyndall

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Ain't democracy a terrible thing. And no, petty unreasonable behaviour is not excused just because someone made a decision you don't agree with. That is the logic of the 5 year old.

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

Te economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

Ilt for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Found it https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/08/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-wave-of-red-tape-for-uk-drivers-and-hauliers

That doesn't explain why they are doing it. I suspect it's just out of spite.

No; read the article.

I don't see any argument as to why they wouldn't agree to continue recognising licenses. If someone can travel in the EU with their US license, I seriously doubt there will be any problem for someone from the UK doing the same.

I also note that the Guardian states:

" but in an EU notice issued last month, the European commission said: “A driving licence issued by the United Kingdom will no longer be recognised by the member states.”

whereas the memo actually states:

"The recognition of driving licences issued by third countries is not addressed in Union law but regulated at Member States level."

Simple. A member state refuses to recognise UK licences, we refuse to recognise theirs. Similarly if the EU tries to 'ground British planes' how many Air France or Lufthansa flights do you expect at Heathrow?

This whole 'queues at Malaga airport' would happen whether or not we were leaving the EU and is down to us not being in Schengen - so Irish passengers will be facing 'queues at Malaga airport' too.

It appears that the EU think the member states will cut off their noses to spite their faces over Brexit. There will be plenty of customs officers in Malaga and Majorca, and planes will keep flying. In case no-one noticed, there’s a massive imbalance in trade in goods, they all head west from Calais and Rotterdam.

ydoethur

Richard_Tyndall said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Ain't democracy a terrible thing. And no, petty unreasonable behaviour is not excused just because someone made a decision you don't agree with. That is the logic of the 5 year old.

Ah well, that's OK then, as the European Commission and their esteemed negotiating team have repeatedly demonstrated they haven't the logic of a five year old

Sandpit

Great investigation on the Times front page about Oxfam.

If the government want to do something constructive that’s not going to cost money, then a thorough review of the operation and regulation of the charity sector would I think have large public support. AIUI Batmanwoman still isn’t in jail.

CarlottaVance

Level pegging.......

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/961857196379328512

CarlottaVance

One aspect of the Treasury Analysis Faisal hasn't got to yet:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5535660/fishermen-better-off-after-brexit/

Mortimer

CarlottaVance said:

Level pegging.......

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/961857196379328512

And West was a strong hold. Nice to get out there yesterday:

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/961773131965722624

TheJezziah

he's rowing back on some of his other pledges e.g. on student debt
...................................................................

I must say I feel quite cheated, there's quite a bit of PM Corbyn's manifesto not currently being implemented!

williamglenn

CarlottaVance said:

One aspect of the Treasury Analysis Faisal hasn't got to yet:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5535660/fishermen-better-off-after-brexit/

Bad news for British fish if it’s based on the removal of quotas.

FF43

Foxy said:

alex. said:

The leaked Telegraph “memo” apparently says that Corbyn is “open to NI border fix”. Any chance he says what that “fix” is?

Presumably it is from remaining in the Customs Union, as he said he was open to yesterday.

Corbyn is refreshingly unideological about the EU.

A Brexit, not THE Brexit ?

RobD

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

One aspect of the Treasury Analysis Faisal hasn't got to yet:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5535660/fishermen-better-off-after-brexit/

Bad news for British fish if it’s based on the removal of quotas.

Is it? I thought the contentious issue was non-UK fisherman fishing in UK waters.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Ain't democracy a terrible thing. And no, petty unreasonable behaviour is not excused just because someone made a decision you don't agree with. That is the logic of the 5 year old.

Ah well, that's OK then, as the European Commission and their esteemed negotiating team have repeatedly demonstrated they haven't the logic of a five year old

Do I gather you're on half-term?

williamglenn

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

One aspect of the Treasury Analysis Faisal hasn't got to yet:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5535660/fishermen-better-off-after-brexit/

Bad news for British fish if it’s based on the removal of quotas.

Is it? I thought the contentious issue was non-UK fisherman fishing in UK waters.

Gove has promised to give them continued access becasue we don’t have enough capacity. Maybe the Treasury didn’t take that into account.

RobD

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

One aspect of the Treasury Analysis Faisal hasn't got to yet:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5535660/fishermen-better-off-after-brexit/

Bad news for British fish if it’s based on the removal of quotas.

Is it? I thought the contentious issue was non-UK fisherman fishing in UK waters.

Gove has promised to give them continued access becasue we don’t have enough capacity. Maybe the Treasury didn’t take that into account.

Let's see what they offer

DavidL

The local elections are still some way off and there is no guarantee that things will remain as they are now over that length of time. If they do, however, the Tories are likely to have a net gain of seats, somewhat flattered by Ed Miliband's performance the last time out. Will that shake any Labour complacency? I think it might.

The problem I have with Mike's analysis is who is this new Messiah that is going to boost the Tories going to be? The hypothesis is that anyone is better than May. It is a hypothesis that is yet to be tested.

DavidL

Interesting developments in the dead tree press: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42991304

Trinity Mirror acquire the Express group. Presumably Diana will continue to dominate the front page but might we just see a little less strident views on other matters?

OblitusSumMe

DavidL said:

Interesting developments in the dead tree press: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42991304

Trinity Mirror acquire the Express group. Presumably Diana will continue to dominate the front page but might we just see a little less strident views on other matters?

Does the deal have to face the Competition Commission?

OblitusSumMe

DavidL said:

The local elections are still some way off and there is no guarantee that things will remain as they are now over that length of time. If they do, however, the Tories are likely to have a net gain of seats, somewhat flattered by Ed Miliband's performance the last time out. Will that shake any Labour complacency? I think it might.

The problem I have with Mike's analysis is who is this new Messiah that is going to boost the Tories going to be? The hypothesis is that anyone is better than May. It is a hypothesis that is yet to be tested.

A situation in which Mogg is the frontrunner in the betting to succeed May is either a great opportunity to make a betting profit, or deeply worrying for the Conservatives.

Nigelb

Richard_Tyndall said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Ain't democracy a terrible thing. And no, petty unreasonable behaviour is not excused just because someone made a decision you don't agree with. That is the logic of the 5 year old.

There has been, and likely will be plenty more petty and unreasonable behaviour on both sides. Whether or not you choose to excuse it is rather beside the point.

MikeSmithson

DavidL said:

The local elections are still some way off and there is no guarantee that things will remain as they are now over that length of time. If they do, however, the Tories are likely to have a net gain of seats, somewhat flattered by Ed Miliband's performance the last time out. Will that shake any Labour complacency? I think it might.

The problem I have with Mike's analysis is who is this new Messiah that is going to boost the Tories going to be? The hypothesis is that anyone is better than May. It is a hypothesis that is yet to be tested.

Dominic Raab

DavidL

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Interesting developments in the dead tree press: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42991304

Trinity Mirror acquire the Express group. Presumably Diana will continue to dominate the front page but might we just see a little less strident views on other matters?

Does the deal have to face the Competition Commission?

Don't think so. It has been in the offing for several months so I would have expected a referral by now if it was going to happen.

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

It's more complicated than that, but as I say I can't find the reference. However, your post does demonstrate a feature of what I expect to be a feature of the next couple of years; if there's a problem, it's the other sides fault.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's UK's fault for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Ain't democracy a terrible thing. And no, petty unreasonable behaviour is not excused just because someone made a decision you don't agree with. That is the logic of the 5 year old.

Ah well, that's OK then, as the European Commission and their esteemed negotiating team have repeatedly demonstrated they haven't the logic of a five year old

Do I gather you're on half-term?

Alas no, not for another week.

Nigelb

Kelly possibly in trouble at the White House ?
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/08/john-kelly-rob-porter-security-clearance-400987

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/961870203712716801

not_on_fire

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

Te economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

Ilt for voting to lave in the first place. LOL

Found it https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/08/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-wave-of-red-tape-for-uk-drivers-and-hauliers

That doesn't explain why they are doing it. I suspect it's just out of spite.

No; read the article.

I don't see any argument as to why they wouldn't agree to continue recognising licenses. If someone can travel in the EU with their US license, I seriously doubt there will be any problem for someone from the UK doing the same.

I also note that the Guardian states:

" but in an EU notice issued last month, the European commission said: “A driving licence issued by the United Kingdom will no longer be recognised by the member states.”

whereas the memo actually states:

"The recognition of driving licences issued by third countries is not addressed in Union law but regulated at Member States level."

Simple. A member state refuses to recognise UK licences, we refuse to recognise theirs. Similarly if the EU tries to 'ground British planes' how many Air France or Lufthansa flights do you expect at Heathrow?

This whole 'queues at Malaga airport' would happen whether or not we were leaving the EU and is down to us not being in Schengen - so Irish passengers will be facing 'queues at Malaga airport' too.

Nonsense. Currently as EU members a Malaga immigration officer doesn’t need to worry about a UK citizen overstaying as they have residence rights. This will not be the case after Brexit. This will inevitably lead to longer passport checks at EU borders.

Thank goodness I’m eligible for an Irish passport.

not_on_fire

DavidL said:

Interesting developments in the dead tree press: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42991304

Trinity Mirror acquire the Express group. Presumably Diana will continue to dominate the front page but might we just see a little less strident views on other matters?

NOW BREXIT CAUSES CANCER

not_on_fire

Mortimer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Level pegging.......

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/961857196379328512

And West was a strong hold. Nice to get out there yesterday:

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/961773131965722624

Amazed it was that close, isn’t Portland full of millionaires?

NickPalmer

I also think that a new Tory leader would get a bounce, but you have to weigh that against the dip likely from a divisive leadership contest - the new leader would risk being seen as the best ferret from the sack rather than a real leader. But I also think that Labour is taking a risk in thinking that normal trends will carry forward - they may, but it's impossible to say.

This is an interesting Brexit development which seems to justify its front page status, unlike some Brexit stories:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/09/northern-ireland-will-stay-in-single-market-after-brexit-eu-says

If that happened, then either Britain would need to be de facto in the single market too (it's news to me that Davis has suggested permanent full alignment, as the article claims), in which case we've automatically ended up with Norway, or a Britain-Northern Ireland division opens up, which is Christmas for Republicans. Or am I misreading it?

DavidL

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

The local elections are still some way off and there is no guarantee that things will remain as they are now over that length of time. If they do, however, the Tories are likely to have a net gain of seats, somewhat flattered by Ed Miliband's performance the last time out. Will that shake any Labour complacency? I think it might.

The problem I have with Mike's analysis is who is this new Messiah that is going to boost the Tories going to be? The hypothesis is that anyone is better than May. It is a hypothesis that is yet to be tested.

Dominic Raab

Maybe. Jumping a generation certainly looks like the right move. His profile is miniscule at the moment though. Very few people will even have heard of him. That might change if he delivers bigly on housing of course. He also seems to have gone to both Oxford and Cambridge so that is the diversity box ticked.

not_on_fire

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

But this is yet another example of “taking back control” just being an illusion

not_on_fire

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/961870203712716801

Perhaps we need a Hong Kong “one country, two systems” model for NI

DavidL

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

Interesting developments in the dead tree press: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42991304

Trinity Mirror acquire the Express group. Presumably Diana will continue to dominate the front page but might we just see a little less strident views on other matters?

NOW BREXIT CAUSES CANCER

BREXIT CAUSES COLDEST WINTER ON RECORD

NickPalmer

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Interesting developments in the dead tree press: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42991304

Trinity Mirror acquire the Express group. Presumably Diana will continue to dominate the front page but might we just see a little less strident views on other matters?

Does the deal have to face the Competition Commission?

Yes, apparently they're likely to just say the companies need to stay separate for one year, meh. But I don't think we should expect the Express to suddenly swing Labour or they'd lose what readership they still have. They may as you say just become less ideological.

OblitusSumMe

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

One aspect of the Treasury Analysis Faisal hasn't got to yet:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5535660/fishermen-better-off-after-brexit/

Bad news for British fish if it’s based on the removal of quotas.

My recollection of past Fisheries negotiations may not be perfect, but I thought that the UK position was normally for tighter quotas in the short-term on the basis of scientific advice that predicts this would allow for higher fish stocks, and therefore greater catches, in the future.

So, could be good all round.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Perhaps. There'll likely be a lot of bloodletting too.

Mortimer

not_on_fire said:

Mortimer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Level pegging.......

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/961857196379328512

And West was a strong hold. Nice to get out there yesterday:

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/961773131965722624

Amazed it was that close, isn’t Portland full of millionaires?

Weymouth and Portland is always very close. I'm not sure the council has been anything other than hung in my entire life....

DavidL

not_on_fire said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

But this is yet another example of “taking back control” just being an illusion

Not really. We get to decide who drives on our roads, they get to decide who drives on theirs. Of course this is pretty much the current status quo in this particular context, there would just be no overarching body who might challenge an adverse decision.

malcolmg

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

One aspect of the Treasury Analysis Faisal hasn't got to yet:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5535660/fishermen-better-off-after-brexit/

Bad news for British fish if it’s based on the removal of quotas.

Is it? I thought the contentious issue was non-UK fisherman fishing in UK waters.

Gove has promised to give them continued access becasue we don’t have enough capacity. Maybe the Treasury didn’t take that into account.

Typical Tory creep giving away Scottish fish. Bring out the tumbrils.

alex.

DavidL said:

The local elections are still some way off and there is no guarantee that things will remain as they are now over that length of time. If they do, however, the Tories are likely to have a net gain of seats, somewhat flattered by Ed Miliband's performance the last time out. Will that shake any Labour complacency? I think it might.

The problem I have with Mike's analysis is who is this new Messiah that is going to boost the Tories going to be? The hypothesis is that anyone is better than May. It is a hypothesis that is yet to be tested.

It's also not particularly clear that May being replaced will be popular. After all, the stated reasons why she is expected to go have nothing to do with (opinion polling measured) public opinion. It is based on an event in the past (the General Election) and a prediction of the future (a belief amongst Tory MPs that she can't be allowed to fight another).

RobD

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/961870203712716801

A glaring omission from the headline?

British officials negotiating in Brussels were told by their counterparts that there could be a “sunset clause” included in the legally binding text, which is due to be published in around two weeks. Such a legal device would make the text null and void at a future date should an unexpectedly generous free trade deal, or a hitherto unimagined technological solution emerge that could be as effective as the status quo in avoiding the need for border infrastructure.

So only in the event these two other scenarios don't pan out.

And even then, you don't have to be member of the single market to be in alignment with it.

malcolmg

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

The local elections are still some way off and there is no guarantee that things will remain as they are now over that length of time. If they do, however, the Tories are likely to have a net gain of seats, somewhat flattered by Ed Miliband's performance the last time out. Will that shake any Labour complacency? I think it might.

The problem I have with Mike's analysis is who is this new Messiah that is going to boost the Tories going to be? The hypothesis is that anyone is better than May. It is a hypothesis that is yet to be tested.

Dominic Raab

Maybe. Jumping a generation certainly looks like the right move. His profile is miniscule at the moment though. Very few people will even have heard of him. That might change if he delivers bigly on housing of course. He also seems to have gone to both Oxford and Cambridge so that is the diversity box ticked.

Just another nonentity , an unknown nomark.

RobD

malcolmg said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

One aspect of the Treasury Analysis Faisal hasn't got to yet:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5535660/fishermen-better-off-after-brexit/

Bad news for British fish if it’s based on the removal of quotas.

Is it? I thought the contentious issue was non-UK fisherman fishing in UK waters.

Gove has promised to give them continued access becasue we don’t have enough capacity. Maybe the Treasury didn’t take that into account.

Typical Tory creep giving away Scottish fish. Bring out the tumbrils.

Isn't control of fisheries being devolved?

FF43

CarlottaVance said:

One aspect of the Treasury Analysis Faisal hasn't got to yet:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5535660/fishermen-better-off-after-brexit/

I think deep sea fishermen are potentially better off if we are outside the Single Market, depending on whether British consumers are prepared to change their tastes and swap white fish for mackerel and herring. These fish get higher prices in the Continental markets.

I expect in practice the UK government will trade fishing rights for other things, as it has always done in the past.

The economically more important fish farming industry would be worse off outside the Single Market. The EU is an important customer for salmon where there is plenty of competition.

malcolmg

DavidL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Interesting developments in the dead tree press: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42991304

Trinity Mirror acquire the Express group. Presumably Diana will continue to dominate the front page but might we just see a little less strident views on other matters?

Does the deal have to face the Competition Commission?

Don't think so. It has been in the offing for several months so I would have expected a referral by now if it was going to happen.

Hard to see why two toilet paper companies merging would be an issue

alex.

not_on_fire said:

CarlottaVance said:

Simple. A member state refuses to recognise UK licences, we refuse to recognise theirs. Similarly if the EU tries to 'ground British planes' how many Air France or Lufthansa flights do you expect at Heathrow?

This whole 'queues at Malaga airport' would happen whether or not we were leaving the EU and is down to us not being in Schengen - so Irish passengers will be facing 'queues at Malaga airport' too.

Nonsense. Currently as EU members a Malaga immigration officer doesn’t need to worry about a UK citizen overstaying as they have residence rights. This will not be the case after Brexit. This will inevitably lead to longer passport checks at EU borders.

Thank goodness I’m eligible for an Irish passport.

Not saying this isn't true, but at many airports the EU/non EU passport control isn't separated, and actually sometimes it is quicker to join the non-EU queue. Although obviously that is skewed by most UK travellers being in the EU one!

tlg86

not_on_fire said:

Mortimer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Level pegging.......

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/961857196379328512

And West was a strong hold. Nice to get out there yesterday:

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/961773131965722624

Amazed it was that close, isn’t Portland full of millionaires?

I think you might be confusing Portland with Sandbanks. They are quite different!

malcolmg

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

One aspect of the Treasury Analysis Faisal hasn't got to yet:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5535660/fishermen-better-off-after-brexit/

Bad news for British fish if it’s based on the removal of quotas.

Is it? I thought the contentious issue was non-UK fisherman fishing in UK waters.

Gove has promised to give them continued access becasue we don’t have enough capacity. Maybe the Treasury didn’t take that into account.

Typical Tory creep giving away Scottish fish. Bring out the tumbrils.

Isn't control of fisheries being devolved?

Nothing is being devolved , all being held by London carpetbaggers.

JWisemann

Of course, there is also the view that May *was* supposed to be the brave new alternative and look how that turned out, and the accompanying fact that it wasnt May’s vote that was the problem for the Tories, but that Corbyn managed to massively increase the Labour vote. Cant quite see how these obvious facts still seem to be ignored in virtually all westminster bubble analysis.

Also the aforementioned lack of obvious magic Tory saviours also has to be taken into account.
Dominic Raab seems to be being bandied about (in a similar way that people here banged on about Liz Kendall in 2015, (!) so clearly there is some wesminster bubble backstage promotion going on here).

But are the public that likely to come flocking to someone who wrote a whole book on how lazy the Brits are and how all their employment rights need to be removed, in the current climate?

RobD

FF43 said:

The economically more important fish farming industry would be worse off outside the Single Market. The EU is an important customer for salmon where there is plenty of competition.

Is there a link to a study on that? Interesting that the government thinks that the fishing industry on the whole would be better of, yet such a big part of it would be worse off.

SquareRoot

"cant be as bad " ? I think T May has done as well as she could given some of the "bastards" she has to deal with.

TheScreamingEagles

Ah yes Gordon Brown’s election that never was, what an absolute crazy time for punters.

This article, which I don’t think has ever been shared on PB, was written by one of Brown’s ministers, summed up the craziness.

We cannot be killed

'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

Nigelb

SquareRoot said:

"cant be as bad " ? I think T May has done as well as she could given some of the "bastards" she has to deal with.

That's no way to talk of the electorate.

bigjohnowls

DavidL said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

Interesting developments in the dead tree press: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42991304

Trinity Mirror acquire the Express group. Presumably Diana will continue to dominate the front page but might we just see a little less strident views on other matters?

NOW BREXIT CAUSES CANCER

BREXIT CAUSES COLDEST WINTER ON RECORD

Why haven't we taken back control?

SquareRoot

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ah yes Gordon Brown’s election that never was, what an absolute crazy time for punters.

This article, which I don’t think has ever been shared on PB, was written by one of Brown’s ministers, summed up the craziness.

We cannot be killed

'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

It didn't take long for voters to realise that Brown was bonkers and a nasty piece of work rolled into one.

MarqueeMark

not_on_fire said:

Mortimer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Level pegging.......

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/961857196379328512

And West was a strong hold. Nice to get out there yesterday:

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/961773131965722624

Amazed it was that close, isn’t Portland full of millionaires?

Until they get a Proceeds of Crime Act 2002 order against them!

Rough old place, Portland. I was told people there rarely involve the police. They sort stuff out themselves....

Still, it does get some fabulous rare birds and lepidoptera. Spent many an unhappy day, there not seeing something special on a twitch.

Metatron

However poorly history is likely to judge Theresa May as both PM and party leader there is no guarantee that the next leader is likely to be more popular.The public and Westminster have a genuine respect for her resilence and `public spirited altitude`.
Off the current alternatives high up in the betting Rees Moog,Boris and Gove might quickly be seen as right wing Michael Foot journalist types.
Unlike May Rudd looks depressed most of the time.Hunt might get blamed for NHS problems
Also if May had to stand down against her will due to 48 letters of no confidence the public might be put off by that treatment of her.
.When Mrs Thatcher was stabbed in the back she was a diversive love hate figure whereas Theresa May is a bland figure who people have some respect for. . On the other hand part of the problem about May`s blandness that is that under her the Tories will struggle to get people to join their party

kle4

not_on_fire said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

The confounding factor of course is that if there's a new Tory Leader in 2020 and he or she leads the Party into he 2022 election, then the effect of Brexit will be plain for all to see.
On a worst case scenario the massive jams on the M20 and A14 will, almost certainly be a thing of the past; somehow it will have been worked out how to deal with them. However, the horrendous queues at Palma and Barcelona Airports will have been experienced the previous Summer, and will be a clear memory, although by Summer 2022 the Spaniards will have sorted something out.
And there could well be a host of other minor inconveniences for the travelling Brit; acceptable driving licences are one example. Travel insurance is another.
If the economic forecasts are wrong, then otherwise things will be much as they are now, albeit with somewhat higher interest rates.
However, if they are right, or even half right, the economic effects will be taking hold, perhaps with a vengeance, and the Tories will be seen to be in control.

Not recognising driving licenses sounds like another project fear story, like planes no longer landing at Heathrow after Brexit day. The UK and EU already accept each other's licenses, why change that?

Agree about Project Fear; can't find the reference at the moment, but apparently there's a change on the way. There's also an issue about the licensing of lorries and trailers, and their driver.

Or we could just agree to continue accepting each other's licenses? Probably too sensible a choice for Juncker et al. to agree to.

But this is yet another example of “taking back control” just being an illusion

Why would taking back control have to mean not permitting such a basic administrative equivalence in order to be real? Is there no difference between people wishing to restrict or change more major things they previously could not but being ok with keeping other matters, albeit by specific agreement not through membership?

We choose to allow commonwealth citizens to vote and even stand for parliament without having 'lost control', I hardly think a suggestion to accept EU driving licenses as valid, and vice versa, would be a sign we have no control.

CarlottaVance

First overseas visit of HMS Queen Elizabeth.....


https://twitter.com/HMSQnlz/status/961860053115420675

Metatron

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

alex. said:

The leaked Telegraph “memo” apparently says that Corbyn is “open to NI border fix”. Any chance he says what that “fix” is?

Presumably it is from remaining in the Customs Union, as he said he was open to yesterday.

Corbyn is refreshingly unideological about the EU.

Corbyn is unideological about everything.

What I don't think people quite understand about him is that he is always somebody who will say whatever he thinks will play well with his core vote. For most of his life, that's been the hard left, and has led him to support Venezuela, Iran, and the Soviet Union as well as nationalisation, council housing etc while opposing tuition fees, Iraq, bank bailouts etc.

When it became the wider country, he flip-flopped with remarkable rapidity. Welfare cuts spring to mind, but trident, police numbers and NATO also have a place.

Now he realises he needs a wider base, he's rowing back on some of his other pledges e.g. on student debt because he realises that he needs to appear credible as well as desirable. This goes a long way to explaining his confusion on the EU - he's got two core votes with irreconcilable views and cannot decide between them.

The key difference between Blair and Corbyn is that Blair was at least intelligent. This is why I keep comparing the latter to Trump.

Corbyn is (like Blair) though emotionally intelligent unlike May and Hammond

Metatron

Dura_Ace said:

IanB2 said:

Depends who it is. I can't see JRM getting much of a polling boost and any honeymoon would not last beyond his character and opinions entering the radar of those who don't follow politics.

And timing is of course everything.

JRM is a British Trump. He will be massively polarising but will do well with the type of person that drives a P-reg Corsa with an odd coloured door because he will appear aggrieved on their behalf.

JRM is not like Trump.JRM is like IDS except one worked in the City and the other in the Army

kle4

Metatron said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

alex. said:

The leaked Telegraph “memo” apparently says that Corbyn is “open to NI border fix”. Any chance he says what that “fix” is?

Presumably it is from remaining in the Customs Union, as he said he was open to yesterday.

Corbyn is refreshingly unideological about the EU.

Corbyn is unideological about everything.

What I don't think people quite understand about him is that he is always somebody who will say whatever he thinks will play well with his core vote. For most of his life, that's been the hard left, and has led him to support Venezuela, Iran, and the Soviet Union as well as nationalisation, council housing etc while opposing tuition fees, Iraq, bank bailouts etc.

When it became the wider country, he flip-flopped with remarkable rapidity. Welfare cuts spring to mind, but trident, police numbers and NATO also have a place.

Now he realises he needs a wider base, he's rowing back on some of his other pledges e.g. on student debt because he realises that he needs to appear credible as well as desirable. This goes a long way to explaining his confusion on the EU - he's got two core votes with irreconcilable views and cannot decide between them.

The key difference between Blair and Corbyn is that Blair was at least intelligent. This is why I keep comparing the latter to Trump.

Corbyn is (like Blair) though emotionally intelligent unlike May and Hammond

He certainly seems able to connect with the mood of a lot of people and strike the right tone to get them fired up, though I must say most of the time, like most politicians, his words seem pretty stock to me.

CarlottaVance

Cherry Picking:

But, counter the Brits, any free-trade agreement involves access to the single market. The CETA deal with Canada, for example, abolished 98 percent of EU tariffs on Canadian goods. It cuts tariffs on Canadian forestry and wood products from 10 percent to zero and also eliminates tariffs on Canadian fish exports — some of which were as high as 25 percent. Canadian firms will also have guaranteed access to European public procurement.

In the Brexit negotiations, Britain will ask for as many cherries as it can get.

Canada did not have to accept European Court of Justice jurisdiction or freedom of movement in return (although there are potential sanctions if it violates parts of the deal), so that looks from London remarkably like a form of cherry-picking. The Brits just argue that a U.K. deal should involve juicier cherries since it is starting from a position of maximum alignment.

The lesson, say British officials, is that free-trade agreements are not bought off the shelf — they vary depending on the size and shape of each economy (hence why they take so long to negotiate). They are quintessential exercises in cherry-picking.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-cherry-picking-is-inevitable-but-it-will-cost/