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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-YouGov President, Peter Kellner, raises doubts about the “No GE17 Youthquake” claims
For those who have been following the BES report that concludes that there was no “youthquake” at GE17 the former President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, makes some controversial observation in Prospect casting doubt on the core conclusion that has made the headlines.
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What seems undeniable is the massive increase in turnout that the BES found in the 25-40 age group and its sharp swing to Labour. A millennialquake, perhaps.
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/958375425310380034
This is probably the last posting on topic. The Brexit obsessives will now hijack the thread.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42875216
Was he a PB'er?
Though he said he was always a Leaver just that he wanted to be loyal to Dave.
Who can blame him, Dave inspires loyalty from those around him.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/911301/gavin-williamson-pressure-affair-workplace-office-romance-defence-secretary
I am now at the point that whatever happens, happens
O/T JRM allowing the possibility he may be vote with opposition over transition deal on C4 News.
I have no idea where the extra taxes for all the promises are coming from but it will not be a ''little more' and only the wealthy few. If Corbyn gets his way it will be a lot more for the many AND the few
Remember Jess "I'm willing to knife Corbyn in the front" Phillips MP.
There was a survey last week stating over 40 per cent of workers in the UK had less than £1000 in savings. I expect that figure is far higher amongst younger workers. How on earth can you buy a home when your savings are less than £1k - it wouldn't even cover your solicitors fees let alone a deposit.
Is this youth enthusiasm for Corbyn down to Brexit - as we are told - or is it more likely to be a combination of low or stagnating wages, facing a lifetime of renting, few secure career prospects, high levels of debt, student tuition fees, austerity and a general feeling of resentment at a system and a party (the Tories) which you consider has literally destroyed your future.
Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change
Singly, each is unbearable. Why would anyone want the double helping?
Our owners are not short of money and always reluctant to sell. £80 million may start to tempt.
Though why you felt the need to indulge in some entirely irrelevant ad hominem is beyond me. I can only assume that you agree with his advice but can’t bring yourself to say so.
But popcorn time at select committee on the BBC
The reports today of the BBC capping newsreaders at £320,000 received a torrent of anger from the public at their astonishing salaries.
Also why has Tony Hall not resigned over the pay controversy
Stuff no-one will ever say #374
(although we won't lend more than 50% of the value of a super prime London property any more)
The philanthropist who established and endowed the University of Westminster funded it with the money that he (and his father) had made as Chairman of the East India Company
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/958422907511820289
https://twitter.com/davidwilletts3/status/958237443584651265
' CAN millennials really afford a deposit just by ditching the mochachinos and avocado toast? We asked one to keep a spending diary, but it wasn’t one who lives in London and works in the media so the entire thing was a waste of time.
Still, since we did it, here’s the spending diary of 26-year-old Tom Logan who lives in Preston and works as a mechanic and is therefore representative of absolutely nobody.
DAY 1
I have a couple of slices of toast and margarine then walk to work. Sorry, I’m already doing this wrong. I should have bought breakfast and got the tube and then bought a coffee. Sorry.
I packed sandwiches for lunch too, because there isn’t anywhere you can buy them near the garage. I know, I’m completely fucking this up.
I should have a gym membership or something, but I just keep fit by walking to work.
Total spend: negligible '
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/features/the-spending-diary-of-a-millennial-who-doesnt-live-in-london-and-therefore-doesnt-matter-20180129143358
And the Guardian article its based upon:
' DAY 1
Bus then tube to work £3.90
Coffee from new cafe £2.80
Lunch from work canteen £4.50
Downpayment on a gym membership £70
Tube home £2.70
Dinner out £15
Snack on the way home £2.20
Total £101.10
I have managed to avoid including the Taylor Swift ticket, but this is not an auspicious start, what with the list including the most expensive flat white within half a mile of the office and two out of three meals eaten out.
An old friend is staying with me and we want to try the Chinese restaurant that was booked up on his last visit. Then, on the way home, we stop at the local Turkish supermarket and the Wafe Up biscuits my flatmate and I like are four for £1.10 and, well, here we are.
I may live to regret the Gymbox membership, but I have learned that scrimping on a gym means I do not go. If I experience a flutter of alarm every time the direct debit goes through, I will make the effort to bring down the cost per visit. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jan/29/can-you-really-save-for-a-deposit-by-ditching-coffee-and-avocado-toast-i-tried-to-find-out
The Remainer frenzy over this new dossier suggests that they have learned nothing from their referendum defeat and the failure of Project Fear. Deluging the public with statistics from official bodies didn't work in 2016. But now, with the Brexit process underway, they desperately latch onto any further figures they can find.
The latest batch has been received by them as if manna from heaven. In their delirium, they risk forgetting that voters at large haven't been waiting with bated breath to see what "EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing" would say before deciding how to feel about Brexit.
They have already been presented with big scary numbers, and made their decision at the ballot box. Many knew there could be a cost, but went ahead and backed Leave anyway. Until Remainers work out how to appeal to these voters, they will remain on the sidelines.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/30/project-fear-flopped-yet-remainers-still-obsessed-killing-brexit/
Interesting new book out on the subject recently, out on kindle this Friday.
http://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/inglorious-empire/
"Those Brits who speak confidently about how Britain’s “historical and cultural ties” to India will make it easy to strike a great new trade deal should read Mr Tharoor’s book. It would help them to see the world through the eyes of the … countries once colonised or defeated by Britain.’ — Gideon Rachman, Financial Times
Still if its real world manufacturing reports you want then you're in luck - we get the Manufacturing PMI data on Thursday.
You can imagine him planning a ‘grid’ with tabloid pleasing stories. “Williamson saves cat stuck up tree”, “Williamson uncovers spy ring in Ministry of Defence”, “Williamson sends troops to Africa to protect elephants from poachers.”
Incidentally I agree with Martin: "Scanning my spending diary, he says it would be “very possible” for me to save from £400 to as much as £700 of my disposable income each month by cutting back on coffees, lunches out, rounds at the pub and holidays." (she said £1,000 above - must be the definition of "disposable".
I save approximately £900 of my disposable income of £1,300 each months but accept I'm the minority.
(I know his great-great-great grandson, who still whines about it occasionally)
An outstanding piece of British workmanship.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/958450075688230912
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5459762/tourists-left-shocked-when-man-sprints-straight-into-wall-at-kings-cross-platform-9-3-4-in-bid-to-emulate-wizard-harry-potter/
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/958451827409813509
Assuming she spends £3 a day on coffee or £1100 a year she should have no bother saving up enough for her deposit in about 200 years if she stopped buying coffees each day.
Still cutting avocado toast out might reduce the wait to 150 years.
Just shows how silly these articles are in the context of London prices - and £350k would barely get you a studio in most of zone 2 these days not a one bed.
I find that rather interesting.