politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a day when TMay’s future has been in the news the last nine

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a day when TMay’s future has been in the news the last nine months on Betfair

Follow @MSmithsonPB // < ![CDATA[ // < ![CDATA[ xfunction(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); // ]]>

Read the full story here

Ishmael_Z

No value in any of that lot.

dixiedean

Second. Subject to contract. Good luck and best wishes @Richard_Tyndall

tyson

Guess who was the highest earning tennis player last year by a country pile?

dixiedean

Can't see why any of the named would be noticeably better than Tezza. All are either bland or divisive.

HYUFD

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

Nigelb

Ishmael_Z said:

No value in any of that lot.

Or in their odds....

williamglenn

Williamson is dominating the front pages of the Telegraph and Mail. Surely not accidental...
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/956649468673314817

Danny565

williamglenn said:

Williamson is dominating the front pages of the Telegraph and Mail. Surely not accidental...
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/956649468673314817

Williamson doing his "I'm dead hard, me" act again. He reminds me so much of a 14-year-old boy trying too much to win street cred.

Luckyguy1983

The nutters in charge really are trying to drive us into war with Russia aren't they?

RoyalBlue

Williamson is ridiculous. If he ever ends up as leader then Labour deserve a go.

tyson

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

chloe

Rees-Mogg or Boris would guarantee a Corbyn landslide.

RoyalBlue

Luckyguy1983 said:

The nutters in charge really are trying to drive us into war with Russia aren't they?

I don’t agree with you on everything, but I share your bewilderment about the Russia hysteria. A country with an economy smaller than that of South Korea wants to play at being a superpower.

Let them! The only people they are impoverishing are themselves, and for most Russians, regaining Crimea was worth the price paid.

Big_G_NorthWales

chloe said:

Rees-Mogg or Boris would guarantee a Corbyn landslide.

I do not support either but Corbyn and landslides are for the birds

Also Gavin Williamson is just stupid if he thinks playing the Russia will kill us card is even credible

Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future

Mortimer

FPT:

Right. I've changed my mind from this morning.

The developments of today make me wonder if the PM has lost the patience of significant parts of the party, and that it couldn't get much worse with pretty much any of the posited replacements.

I agree with David H, and think she loses a VoNC, if it happens.

williamglenn

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future

Apparently she and Nick Timothy are the ones grooming Williamson.

https://reaction.life/nick-timothy-propped-pm-weird-plot-make-gavin-williamson-tory-leader/

The Mayite candidate when that contest eventually comes thus has a head start and is already in the cabinet. That is the defence secretary Gavin Williamson so vigorously promoted as the future of a grittier “Nottingham not Notting Hill” Conservatism, by Nick Timothy, May’s former chief of staff. Timothy still has a great influence on May, who has long relied on his political skills.

Barnesian

williamglenn said:

Williamson is dominating the front pages of the Telegraph and Mail. Surely not accidental...
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/956649468673314817

I genuinely thought that was a photo of Boris waving to the crowd until I saw the headline.

tyson

RoyalBlue said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

The nutters in charge really are trying to drive us into war with Russia aren't they?

I don’t agree with you on everything, but I share your bewilderment about the Russia hysteria. A country with an economy smaller than that of South Korea wants to play at being a superpower.

Let them! The only people they are impoverishing are themselves, and for most Russians, regaining Crimea was worth the price paid.

I doubt you'd be saying that comrade if Russia was being led by some Venezuelan, leftist socialist.

Sometimes you have to take to close your eyes and just kind of accept when people are behaving badly. And the Russians are behaving badly.

Alistair

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

ReggieCide

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future

Apparently she and Nick Timothy are the ones grooming Williamson.

https://reaction.life/nick-timothy-propped-pm-weird-plot-make-gavin-williamson-tory-leader/

The Mayite candidate when that contest eventually comes thus has a head start and is already in the cabinet. That is the defence secretary Gavin Williamson so vigorously promoted as the future of a grittier “Nottingham not Notting Hill” Conservatism, by Nick Timothy, May’s former chief of staff. Timothy still has a great influence on May, who has long relied on his political skills.

Timothy has political skills? I must have blinked.

Big_G_NorthWales

Barnesian said:

williamglenn said:

Williamson is dominating the front pages of the Telegraph and Mail. Surely not accidental...
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/956649468673314817

I genuinely thought that was a photo of Boris waving to the crowd until I saw the headline.

Sky reporting on her meeting with Trump was the first time I can remember for a long time that they have said something complimentary for her

tyson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

chloe said:

Rees-Mogg or Boris would guarantee a Corbyn landslide.

I do not support either but Corbyn and landslides are for the birds

Also Gavin Williamson is just stupid if he thinks playing the Russia will kill us card is even credible

Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future

TM's the future of the Tory party since there are no credible alternatives. I think Hunt is an alternative, but clearly swivel eyed zealots do not rate him.

ReggieCide

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

chloe said:

Rees-Mogg or Boris would guarantee a Corbyn landslide.

I do not support either but Corbyn and landslides are for the birds

Also Gavin Williamson is just stupid if he thinks playing the Russia will kill us card is even credible

Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future

TM's the future of the Tory party since there are no credible alternatives. I think Hunt is an alternative, but clearly swivel eyed zealots do not rate him.

credibility might not be a bar

HYUFD

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

Ishmael_Z

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/956644125473992706?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

chloe

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway

Not all Tories are Brexiteers.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/956656754233937921

Ishmael_Z

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

Reads very much like him getting the story out there to defuse it.

rcs1000

Alistair said:

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/956659043489271810

tyson

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party

dixiedean

chloe said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway

Not all Tories are Brexiteers.

There are however quite a few who think they should be...

HYUFD

Alistair said:

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

So over 50% of 35-44 year olds are still able to get on the property ladder and buy their first property even if those in their early thirties and those in their twenties cannot. Thus with the young mainly renting and voting Labour and the old mainly property owners, it will be 35-44 year old mortgage holders who will decide the next general election and if fewer of them get on the property ladder that boosts Labour, if more get on the property ladder that boosts the Tories

Mortimer

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.

I'm wondering if graduates were less likely to be homeowners in their 20s, during the 90s, than they are now...

HYUFD

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party

Would you vote for a Hunt led Tories over Labour and the LDs that is the question? If not all your admiration for him does the Tories no good

AndyJS

What percentage of people in their 30s are married today compared to 1995?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/956660464938778625

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/956660514691715072

Pong

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.

But when you did buy homes, you bought expensive homes, right?

or, like, something around the UK average property price?

AndyJS

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/956660464938778625

The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.

Labour are very likely to win the popular vote in Westminster but their vote tends to be concentrated in a few wards in the north of the borough.

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/20/

tyson

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party

Would you vote for a Hunt led Tories over Labour and the LDs that is the question? If not all your admiration for him does the Tories no good

I absolutely would vote for a Hunt over Corbyn Labour Party a gazillion times over if Hunt committed to a second referendum....admittedly putting my cross into a Tory box would make me feel slightly light headed....

williamglenn

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/956660464938778625

The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.

Perhaps May should launch a 'Building Strong And Stable Communities' policy.

ReggieCide

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party

do you get a vote?

chloe

dixiedean said:

chloe said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway

Not all Tories are Brexiteers.

There are however quite a few who think they should be...

True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.

Danny565

Question Time....

Michael Forsyth is still around?!!?

ExiledInScotland

If there is any lesson from the last decade or so of UK politics it must be that the public notice when party leaders are comfortable in themselves and perform competently on TV - think Blair, Cameron and Salmond vs Brown, IDS and Farron.

If the Tories want to win next time, their leader must fit that. May, Hammond, Rudd, Gove, etc. don't. Johnson, Rees-Mogg and - possibly - Hunt do. The public will not forgive them if they choose someone who ticks party boxes but can't perform. The country want leadership, vision and inspiration. And build more blasted houses pronto.

tyson

ReggieCide said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party

do you get a vote?

No...and I wouldn't take a 3 quid offer to vote either (which will not happen).....

so to coin something that I learnt from Nick Palmer..... I should STFU.....

dixiedean

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.

But quite a few non graduates did. My brother bought at 21 in 1991. In the North, with a steady job, and very low deposits it wasn't difficult to get a mortgage on a terraced house. In fact, it was relatively easy. Most of his peers working in catering were home owners then. Today, not likely.

TheScreamingEagles

Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

Danny565

Peter Oborne is a very peculiar man.

Big_G_NorthWales

chloe said:

dixiedean said:

chloe said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway

Not all Tories are Brexiteers.

There are however quite a few who think they should be...

True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.

The conservative party will not let Corbyn in no matter what problems they have

AndyJS

Danny565 said:

Peter Oborne is a very peculiar creature.

Why is he?

chloe

Big_G_NorthWales said:

chloe said:

dixiedean said:

chloe said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway

Not all Tories are Brexiteers.

There are however quite a few who think they should be...

True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.

The conservative party will not let Corbyn in no matter what problems they have

Rees-Mogg would

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/956658642811486229

Big_G_NorthWales

chloe said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

chloe said:

dixiedean said:

chloe said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway

Not all Tories are Brexiteers.

There are however quite a few who think they should be...

True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.

The conservative party will not let Corbyn in no matter what problems they have

Rees-Mogg would

You cannot even be sure of that

RoyalBlue

TheScreamingEagles said:

Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

Yet more evidence of his unsuitability. He isn’t trustworthy, he tells people what they want to hear, and I’ve yet to hear of an original idea he’s had.

Ishmael_Z

TheScreamingEagles said:

Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

As noted below that's him getting the story out there to detox it, before someone else does.

tyson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

Read the article...Gavin's only admitted to a couple of little kisses. Whether there was any tongue or not, or where said tongues licked or probed......

All sounds a bit Clitonesque to me...

TheScreamingEagles

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

As noted below that's him getting the story out there to detox it, before someone else does.

You cynic.

Benpointer

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

Yet more evidence of his unsuitability. He isn’t trustworthy, he tells people what they want to hear, and I’ve yet to hear of an original idea he’s had.

Sounds just like a typical Tory leader then

chloe

Big_G_NorthWales said:

chloe said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

chloe said:

dixiedean said:

chloe said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway

Not all Tories are Brexiteers.

There are however quite a few who think they should be...

True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.

The conservative party will not let Corbyn in no matter what problems they have

Rees-Mogg would

You cannot even be sure of that

Maybe not but I wouldn’t vote for a Rees-Mogg led party.

TheScreamingEagles

Anyhoo.

You ain’t seen me right.

HYUFD

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/956660464938778625

The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.

Labour are very likely to win the popular vote in Westminster but their vote tends to be concentrated in a few wards in the north of the borough.

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/20/

So the Tories are likely to hold Westminster in seat terms then, given Ed Miliband won most votes and seats in the 2014 local elections when the seats up in May were last up the results may not be as bad for the Tories as some expect, especially given the UKIP vote will also be well down

HYUFD

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party

Would you vote for a Hunt led Tories over Labour and the LDs that is the question? If not all your admiration for him does the Tories no good

I absolutely would vote for a Hunt over Corbyn Labour Party a gazillion times over if Hunt committed to a second referendum....admittedly putting my cross into a Tory box would make me feel slightly light headed....

Except Hunt has said he is now a Leaver and would not commit to a second referendum

OblitusSumMe

I'm confused by the implied probability figures in the chart above. My understanding was that bookmakers odds converted to probabilities would normally sum too more than 100% - the excess, or overround, being one source of their profits in the long-term. So it's sure striking that the front eight in the betting only have a combined probability of becoming the next leader of 53%, probably under half when you take the overround into account.

Could the next Tory leader be any one of more than a dozen MPs not in the top eight? Or should most of the top eight be at shorter odds?

chloe

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/956660464938778625

The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.

Labour are very likely to win the popular vote in Westminster but their vote tends to be concentrated in a few wards in the north of the borough.

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/20/

So the Tories are likely to hold Westminster in seat terms then, given Ed Miliband won most votes and seats in the 2014 local elections when the seats up in May were last up the results may not be as bad for the Tories as some expect, especially given the UKIP vote will also be well down

It is looking very dodgy in Barnet for the Tories

dixiedean

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party

Would you vote for a Hunt led Tories over Labour and the LDs that is the question? If not all your admiration for him does the Tories no good

I absolutely would vote for a Hunt over Corbyn Labour Party a gazillion times over if Hunt committed to a second referendum....admittedly putting my cross into a Tory box would make me feel slightly light headed....

Except Hunt has said he is now a Leaver and would not commit to a second referendum

So what is to stop him becoming a Remainer again?

SandyRentool

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/956658642811486229

More of a stark sign how crap May is.

chloe

SandyRentool said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/956658642811486229

More of a stark sign how crap May is.

And Brexit

RobD

SandyRentool said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/956658642811486229

More of a stark sign how crap May is.

Surprised it doesn’t say “because of Brexit”.

SandyRentool

chloe said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/956660464938778625

The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.

Labour are very likely to win the popular vote in Westminster but their vote tends to be concentrated in a few wards in the north of the borough.

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/20/

So the Tories are likely to hold Westminster in seat terms then, given Ed Miliband won most votes and seats in the 2014 local elections when the seats up in May were last up the results may not be as bad for the Tories as some expect, especially given the UKIP vote will also be well down

It is looking very dodgy in Barnet for the Tories

Moreso for Trump..

Night all...

ReggieCide

chloe said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

chloe said:

dixiedean said:

chloe said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway

Not all Tories are Brexiteers.

There are however quite a few who think they should be...

True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.

The conservative party will not let Corbyn in no matter what problems they have

Rees-Mogg would

any new leader will be the least unpopular candidate not the most popular. JRM would not fit either description

Nigelb

dixiedean said:

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.

But quite a few non graduates did. My brother bought at 21 in 1991. In the North, with a steady job, and very low deposits it wasn't difficult to get a mortgage on a terraced house. In fact, it was relatively easy. Most of his peers working in catering were home owners then. Today, not likely.

Quite - and don't forget the numbers going to university more than doubled during the 90s. Many more aged 25 would have been in full time employment for half a decade or so back then.

viewcode

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

So over 50% of 35-44 year olds are still able to get on the property ladder and buy their first property even if those in their early thirties and those in their twenties cannot. Thus with the young mainly renting and voting Labour and the old mainly property owners, it will be 35-44 year old mortgage holders who will decide the next general election and if fewer of them get on the property ladder that boosts Labour, if more get on the property ladder that boosts the Tories

Careful, you're running into the cohort/agegroup problem.

The "35-44 year olds" you refer to were 35-44 in 2013/4, so they were born in the 1969-1978 cohort. They are now 39-48.

If we assume the next election is in 2022, then the "35-44 year old mortgage holders who will decide the next general election" will have been born in the 1978-1987 cohort, so in 2013/4 they would have been in the 26-35 age group.

GIN1138

Danny565 said:

Peter Oborne is a very peculiar man.

He is very strange...

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/956662995630903297

another_richard

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/956658642811486229

Doesn't the rest of the world know that the UK is now an 'Aid Superpower' ?

OblitusSumMe

OblitusSumMe said:

I'm confused by the implied probability figures in the chart above. My understanding was that bookmakers odds converted to probabilities would normally sum too more than 100% - the excess, or overround, being one source of their profits in the long-term. So it's sure striking that the front eight in the betting only have a combined probability of becoming the next leader of 53%, probably under half when you take the overround into account.

Could the next Tory leader be any one of more than a dozen MPs not in the top eight? Or should most of the top eight be at shorter odds?

Looking again at the chart you can see that the sum of the implied probabilities at the beginning of the period was about 58% for just the top three in the odds at that time. So the change is quite large.

Perhaps it implies that Theresa May's leadership of the Tories will be so dire that there's a non-negligible probability that she will be the last leader of the Conservative Party...

GIN1138

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/956662995630903297

EU trying to ratchet up the "crisis" angle again to help keep Theresa May in power?

another_richard

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.

In large parts of the country you could buy a house for under £20k in 1995.

GIN1138

GDP Day tomorrow for Q4 2017.

Any predictions?

Big_G_NorthWales

GIN1138 said:

GDP Day tomorrow for Q4 2017.

Any predictions?

0.4

AndyJS

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.

In large parts of the country you could buy a house for under £20k in 1995.

All those terraced houses in Lancashire, south Wales, Nottingham, etc.

Dura_Ace

Danny565 said:

williamglenn said:

Williamson is dominating the front pages of the Telegraph and Mail. Surely not accidental...
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/956649468673314817

Williamson doing his "I'm dead hard, me" act again. He reminds me so much of a 14-year-old boy trying too much to win street cred.

He's just the very latest is a series of right wing turds who are superficially pro defence but never felt the need to take the Queen's shilling in their youth themselves.

Williamson is all about generating headlines not actual and useful defence capabilities.

another_richard

GIN1138 said:

GDP Day tomorrow for Q4 2017.

Any predictions?

Forexfactory is predicting 0.4%.

I think there's a good possibility of upward revisions in earlier quarters because of the upwardly revised manufacturing and construction data which we have had recently.

However the preliminary GDP estimate which we get tomorrow usually doesn't revise previous quarters so any revisions will have to wait at least a month.

I'm not sure how this affects the RCS-DavidL bet.

viewcode

OblitusSumMe said:

I'm confused by the implied probability figures in the chart above. My understanding was that bookmakers odds converted to probabilities would normally sum too more than 100% - the excess, or overround, being one source of their profits in the long-term. So it's sure striking that the front eight in the betting only have a combined probability of becoming the next leader of 53%, probably under half when you take the overround into account.

Could the next Tory leader be any one of more than a dozen MPs not in the top eight? Or should most of the top eight be at shorter odds?

I have an explanation, but I don't know if it's correct. Have a look, see if this makes sense

In classical bookmaking, you bet with the bookie, and lodge your money with him. He sets the odds and ensures that his full book has an overround. His profit is the difference between the money lodged and paid out, which will always be positive if the overound is positive

But the "Betfair" above isn't Betfair Sportsbook, it's Betfair Exchange, which is exchange betting. In exchange betting you bet with another punter not the bookie: the bookie just holds the money until the bet is decided. In this scenario, there is no requirement for an overround since the bookie gets paid even if the overround is negative (I think they make their profit by interest paid on the money held, or by a small commission: happy to be contradicted if wrong).

Foxy

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.

In large parts of the country you could buy a house for under £20k in 1995.

In 1992 I bought my first house, in Leicester for £46 000. It was possible to get them for circa £30 000 in cheaper parts of Leicester. While I could afford that on my junior doctors salary, it is worth noting that I was paying 12% interest. The price was lower, but the repayments were still about 35% of my salary.

A friend bought a 3 bed terrace in Stoke for £17 000 in the late eighties. It had some nice original features, but also was in a subsidence area.

another_richard

viewcode said:

OblitusSumMe said:

I'm confused by the implied probability figures in the chart above. My understanding was that bookmakers odds converted to probabilities would normally sum too more than 100% - the excess, or overround, being one source of their profits in the long-term. So it's sure striking that the front eight in the betting only have a combined probability of becoming the next leader of 53%, probably under half when you take the overround into account.

Could the next Tory leader be any one of more than a dozen MPs not in the top eight? Or should most of the top eight be at shorter odds?

I have an explanation, but I don't know if it's correct. Have a look, see if this makes sense

In classical bookmaking, you bet with the bookie, and lodge your money with him. He sets the odds and ensures that his full book has an overround. His profit is the difference between the money lodged and paid out, which will always be positive if the overound is positive

But the "Betfair" above isn't Betfair Sportsbook, it's Betfair Exchange, which is exchange betting. In exchange betting you bet with another punter not the bookie: the bookie just holds the money until the bet is decided. In this scenario, there is no requirement for an overround since the bookie gets paid even if the overround is negative (I think they make their profit by interest paid on the money held, or by a small commission: happy to be contradicted if wrong).

Betfair Exchange takes a small commission on winnings.

viewcode

another_richard said:

viewcode said:

OblitusSumMe said:

I'm confused by the implied probability figures in the chart above. My understanding was that bookmakers odds converted to probabilities would normally sum too more than 100% - the excess, or overround, being one source of their profits in the long-term. So it's sure striking that the front eight in the betting only have a combined probability of becoming the next leader of 53%, probably under half when you take the overround into account.

Could the next Tory leader be any one of more than a dozen MPs not in the top eight? Or should most of the top eight be at shorter odds?

I have an explanation, but I don't know if it's correct. Have a look, see if this makes sense

In classical bookmaking, you bet with the bookie, and lodge your money with him. He sets the odds and ensures that his full book has an overround. His profit is the difference between the money lodged and paid out, which will always be positive if the overound is positive

But the "Betfair" above isn't Betfair Sportsbook, it's Betfair Exchange, which is exchange betting. In exchange betting you bet with another punter not the bookie: the bookie just holds the money until the bet is decided. In this scenario, there is no requirement for an overround since the bookie gets paid even if the overround is negative (I think they make their profit by interest paid on the money held, or by a small commission: happy to be contradicted if wrong).

Betfair Exchange takes a small commission on winnings.

Thank you, that is useful to know.

Big_G_NorthWales

Good night everyone - sure there will be lots on politics and economics tomorrow

TheJezziah

FPT

ydoethur said:

TheJezziah said:

ydoethur said:

I don't think you buy a Victorian mansion for £99,000 in Islington, although it meets most of your other requirements apart from the fact it's in some small unimportant egotistical city in the east rather than God's Own Country.

Edit - more seriously, which part of Wales do you live in? Will admit I am asking purely out of curiosity so don't feel you have to answer.

Islwyn though moved from Swansea recently.

So very close to Caerphilly then? My mother's family was from there and we scattered her ashes on Caerphilly Mountain. Some very beautiful places in the Valleys, which I often think are under appreciated.

Yeah very close, I'm in Caerphilly county borough. It is nice to have the mountains and all the green around. Used to work away in London, just put up in a hotel for the week was just too busy for me, think I prefer something a bit busier than here but it definitely has its charms. Nice for growing up going out camping in the mountains!

TheJezziah

The other consideration for a lot of millennials is not just paying these much higher house prices but having to save these much bigger deposits (which now require a higher percentage*) whilst paying much higher rents, because property is worth a lot more.

*I'm not saying change this, there is sound logic behind it but it is another factor.

another_richard

You can still buy houses for under £40k in Gainsborough. Now some look nasty as well as cheap but these two seem presentable:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64958159.html
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63165349.html

Foxy

another_richard said:

You can still buy houses for under £40k in Gainsborough. Now some look nasty as well as cheap but these two seem presentable:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64958159.html
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63165349.html

Gainsborough is not the bucolic idyll that the name suggests. I wouldn't recommend it, having worked in Lincs myself. Incidentally, both those houses asking prices are substantially less than they were a decade ago. The top one sold for £61000 in 2008, and has lost over a third of its value.

Richard_Nabavi

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future

Apparently she and Nick Timothy are the ones grooming Williamson.

https://reaction.life/nick-timothy-propped-pm-weird-plot-make-gavin-williamson-tory-leader/

The Mayite candidate when that contest eventually comes thus has a head start and is already in the cabinet. That is the defence secretary Gavin Williamson so vigorously promoted as the future of a grittier “Nottingham not Notting Hill” Conservatism, by Nick Timothy, May’s former chief of staff. Timothy still has a great influence on May, who has long relied on his political skills.

No doubt that is so. The Mayites will, I think, unanimously back Gavin Williamson.

That's the good news, from the point of view of Mr Williamson. The bad news is that there are precisely two Mayites amongst MPs, and zero elsewhere in the party.

TheJezziah

If you are buying a house that cheap then you are looking out for brothels, crack dens and the like, the kind of local amenities that indicate affordability.

another_richard

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

FTPT:

Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years



In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.

In large parts of the country you could buy a house for under £20k in 1995.

In 1992 I bought my first house, in Leicester for £46 000. It was possible to get them for circa £30 000 in cheaper parts of Leicester. While I could afford that on my junior doctors salary, it is worth noting that I was paying 12% interest. The price was lower, but the repayments were still about 35% of my salary.

A friend bought a 3 bed terrace in Stoke for £17 000 in the late eighties. It had some nice original features, but also was in a subsidence area.

Of course savings accounts also had much higher interest rates in that era.

And with much lower levels of personal debt a deposit could be saved up much quicker than today.

HYUFD

chloe said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/956660464938778625

The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.

Labour are very likely to win the popular vote in Westminster but their vote tends to be concentrated in a few wards in the north of the borough.

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/20/

So the Tories are likely to hold Westminster in seat terms then, given Ed Miliband won most votes and seats in the 2014 local elections when the seats up in May were last up the results may not be as bad for the Tories as some expect, especially given the UKIP vote will also be well down

It is looking very dodgy in Barnet for the Tories

Though the Jewish vote will help

HYUFD

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party

Would you vote for a Hunt led Tories over Labour and the LDs that is the question? If not all your admiration for him does the Tories no good

I absolutely would vote for a Hunt over Corbyn Labour Party a gazillion times over if Hunt committed to a second referendum....admittedly putting my cross into a Tory box would make me feel slightly light headed....

Except Hunt has said he is now a Leaver and would not commit to a second referendum

So what is to stop him becoming a Remainer again?

Ambition

Richard_Nabavi

Apparently we are to believe that in 25 years time no-one will own a house.

That seems odd, unless I suppose the successors to the Corbyn revolution will have nationalised housing by then.