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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Vote blue go green? Farage,
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Vote blue go green? Farage, Boris & 2nd referendums (again) plus Labour NEC election fallout
On this week’s podcast, Keiran and Leo continue with the new format of the show where each guest chooses a news story that has interested them from the past week and provides some polling analysis on a key issue of the day. Topics discussed this week include:
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Carillion demonstrates clearly enough what the Conservatives are all about.
And first!!!!!!
Looking at newspaper headlines finally questioning PFI, the scale of recent defence cuts and the plight of ex-servicemen, it is like several years of pb postings flashing before my eyes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-42727174
Corbyn: 29
May: 25
Not quite a Labour slam-dunk, is it?
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/
Second is the pyrrhic victory of Cameron and Osborne's gerrymandering -- by which is meant purging the electoral rolls for GE2015. As well as losing Labour voters (one of its intended results, the other being its corollary of reducing Labour constituencies) it dropped Remainers.
Too late to rescue their own political careers, the then government launched its own desperate pre-referendum registration drive (which later cost Theresa May her majority). You may remember Ukip's protests, especially when the deadline was extended. The net result is there are more Remain-inclined people registered to vote next time in any Noel Edmonds referendum.
https://www.thelocal.ch/20180117/free-movement-initiative-could-result-in-swiss-brexit?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.
Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.
The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".
But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."
https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300
I doubt even the Pope could preach Catholicism as fervently as William preaches European union.
News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.
News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.
Maybe we will now start to see how PFI and outsourcing have hollowed out our state infrastructure.
The question is whether the State got value for money for those S&Hs. I think the picture there is mixed. In some cases, including many of Carillion's contracts, the answer is yes. In other cases the somewhat naïve and inexperienced Civil Service were undoubtedly ripped off by QSs who had been playing this game in the construction industry their entire lives and could spot a chargeable variation when it was a glimmer in their customer's eye.
For me, the lessons are:
If the government is to do PFI contracts it should not be just to hide borrowing and making the deficit look better. Debt off the books is ultimately more expensive than direct government borrowing.
The government needs expertise and discipline in negotiating and conducting PFI contracts. Paying for that is a good investment.
Service contracts, not really PFI at all but often related, can be good VFM for the State provided they deal with businesses focussed on and providing that service, not intermediaries who subcontract all the work like Carillion.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/solomonhughes/toby-young-has-lost-another-job-in-education
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/953751783670730753
Keep it up!
Boxing
Athletics
Olympic Games 2020
Motor sport
Australia sports
Sailing
Snooker
Darts
Disability sport
Chess
I think the real news is that DT barebacked that pornstar.
Porn stars receive regular STD checks (every 30 days or so)
Ironically they are very clean.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/953869306705666048
I think you might be ignoring the effect of such things at the margin, where most elections are decided. No one expects his true believers to desert him.
Things really not looking good for the Republicans in the midterms (contd.)...
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/17/republicans-mueller-midterms-russia-probe-341592?lo=ap_b1
But yes, not one of May's finer choices.
If all the crap I said at university were made public, I doubt I'd have any job.
Cut him a break.
Surely it's a basic test of competence for a politician to delete such obviously embarrassing tweets etc *before* they appear on the front pages ?
If you were a senior party official, the same would apply to you.
I really wouldn't cite political rhetoric or newspaper headlines as your evidence.
He could have said he supported the LibDems.
A stupid choice of words, not unforgivable for a 21 year old, but pretending it's not embarrassing is just silly.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/01/stormy-daniels-trump-said-i-reminded-him-of-daughter.html
"David Blunkett told the head of the Prison Service to call in the Army and "machine-gun" rioting inmates to regain control of a jail in 2002, reports say.
Martin Narey, then director general, said the then home secretary told him he did not care about possible deaths during bids to retake Lincoln prison."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6057528.stm
David Cameron’s quip about Twitter will be taught in politics lectures long after Twitter has ceased to be.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/01/17/h-1b-immigrants-make-up-nearly-three-quarters-of-silicon-valley-tech-workforce-report-says/
I'd give the benefit of the doubt for a few throwaway remarks made as a student, years before he decided to enter public service.
https://twitter.com/DMReporter/status/953653064984088576
Too much focus on deficit and debt can lead to other stupid decisions like selling off student loans at a knock down price. IMO ONS should redefine these numbers to reduce the temptation for accounting tricks.
When the Grieve amendment's vote (a meaningful vote on the deal) occurs, I do wonder how much of a push there'll be to make it deal or referendum 2, rather than deal or no deal.
Also, a lot of comments that might have seemed innocent at the time might look a lot worse out of context years later. Back in 2011 people were saying a lot worse than this guy about the Met standing by and letting rioters and looters have the freedom of parts of London.
The bloke who wrote the Mail story a year ago now works for Mrs May.
With Juncker dictating terms to a UK begging to remain in the EU.
This isn't an argument against PFI per se, but poorly negotiated, inflexible contracts can be extremely expensive for those on the wrong end of them (us, the taxpayers).
Has anyone ever decided to vote for a politician because of a tweet ?
If you're right, I'll be delighted.
Legal blog UpCounsel puts the cost of the H-1B process at $10,000 to $11,000 per employee....
These tend to be people with masters degrees.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/pathologising-brexit-1.3359025#.WmBdZrkXfMg.twitter
There’s a big campaign in SV to raise the minimum salary for H1-B visas to $100k, so they’re used to employed genuinely talented people rather than undercutting Americans’ wages.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/18/us-leadership-world-confidence-poll
Domestically, it suggests that Boris's attack on Corbyn for not being enamoured of the US alliance is not going to resonate. Corbyn is lucky that some of his classic themes - criticism of US policy, opposition to PFI, scepticism about British foreign intervention - are now commonplace, even among people who thought them deplorable 10-20 years ago.
And they now have to contend with a visit from Andrew Adonis in his "Humility and Understanding Tour"
https://tinyurl.com/ybtqlpxn
"In the coming months, I will be touring Brexit strongholds around the country, not to convince but to listen and learn".
Presumably along the lines, "There, there, I understand, little dears, you were misled by the media. It's best to leave matters like this to the grown-ups."
There are many good things to chuckle over in the article from the architect of tuitions fees, but my favourite is:
" I admit our collective failure to understand the plight of those in this country who didn’t go to university and get well-paid jobs, and whose children are faced with declining living standards. '
It is amazing how the very personal failure of Adonis in the matter of tuition fees has now become a "collective failure".
First, the National Liberal Club has the romantic charm of a large lavatory.
And second, that Bolton is even a member of the National Liberal Club.
I suggest the "political statement" won't be much more than an intention to have a future relationship. We would also need to wrap up the actual negotiations during the "transition" period if we are to avoid the shifted cliff edge.
https://twitter.com/MarietjeSchaake/status/953686819798994945
Seriously, this sort of complete nonsense going through tweets from years ago and seeking to take them out of context is one of the major reasons no one sane would want to stand for political position anymore.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-minimum-salary-to-be-paid-to-a-H1B-visa-holder