IMO, the biggest long-term economic problem has been the fact that growth in output hasn't fed through into growth in median incomes since about 2000. I don't know if that's permanent, or just a blip.
That's because there hasn't been any growth in ouput since 2000 instead we've had a steep borrowing, now government borrowing and perhaps a restart of household borrowing is now occurring.
If it's permanent we're all buggered. Relentlessly stagnating or falling standards of living will that none of our political parties have begun to think about yet. But they need to.
That ties in with discussions about the next election. We could easily see GDP rise by 6% between Q3 2013, and Q2 2015, which would be well ahead of population growth over that period. But, will it result in wage rises for the average voter?
Absolutely. Focusing on abstract numbers and proclaiming their upwards or downwards ore or less money in your pocket after bills have been paid is what counts.
Getting more money in people's pockets can only be achieved now through extra borrowing. Whether its Brown, Darling, Osoborne or Balls as Chancellor that's the only strategy governments have for survival.
None of them have a solution to our long term problem which is that we're a high cost, high tax, high regulation country now challenged by people who are as intelligent and educated as we are but willing to work harder for less money and with fewer restrictions.
Spot on the noughties saw the growth of the "distributive" sectors in law, government and finance. White collar jobs which don't actually produce much but take a cut from the sectors that do and push their profits down. It's the secular version of the tithe.
The vast bulk of the City's earnings come from abroad. I'm quite comfortbale with extracting a tithe from other countries...
Right so you earn money by investing our savings in other people's countries rather than our own ? i can understand how Germany has a competitve advantage.
PoliticsHome @politicshome GMB gen sec Paul Kenny - "the chickens have come home to roost" for Labour after @Ed_Miliband given "pretty grubby advice" on Falkirk #twtw
Constant new government regulations means businesses have to spend ever more money on QA consultants, HR consultants, H&S consultants, environmental consultants etc etc.
These people add fck all value but significant extra overhead costs leading to output becoming more expensive. While extra employee time is taken up with performing all the new procedures the consultants have deemed necessary.
Customers then buy cheaper alternatives from countries which don't bother with QA, HR, H&S or environmental concerns.
Meanwhile these 'consultants' become ever more influential in creating more regulations for them to consult about.
I remember 'Have I Got News For You' saying in an episode during the 1990s that there were now more personal managers in the UK than miners.
God knows how many the white collar managers/consultants overheads amount to now.
Don't start me on consultants ! :-)
Go on you know you want to ;-)
But do I detect a lack of appreciation for a group of people with whom we apparantly lead the world ?
Surely you did know Alan that the UK's 'business services' are world leaders and without doubt a source for our future prosperity ?
Only in politician land. Our businesses services providers just basically serve up the latest Harvard crap to anyone who'll listen. I fully expect all those offshoring experts to be employes as onshoring experts in about five years. A total waste of time for all concerned except those "advising".
"On Tuesday, the flag of Gibraltar will fly across Whitehall to mark Gibraltar Day.
Clearly stage 1 of the grand EU renegotiation plan, which is for England and Wales to leave the UK and instead become part of Gibraltar, releasing them from the Common Agricultural Policy and all the other bits that Gibraltar has opted out of.
" The Duke of York was challenged by police officers who failed to recognise him as he took a stroll in the gardens of Buckingham Palace less than 48 hours after a break-in at the Queen’s London home, it has emerged.
In an embarrassment for the force, the Metropolitan Police today confirmed that a man was ordered to verify his identity by two officers at about 6pm on Wednesday, although it denied a newspaper report that the officers drew guns and ordered Prince Andrew to get down on the ground." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article3863586.ece
"These are difficult days for Ed Miliband. Our YouGov poll shows the Labour lead at just four points, even though most voters are not yet fully aware of the improved economic data. The Labour leader’s Commons victory on Syria has turned into defeat, his rating on it worse than David Cameron’s — who lost the vote. Mr Miliband’s overall rating is grim even among Labour voters. More of them think he is doing badly than say he is doing well as party leader. >> http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/leaders/article1310796.ece
"Mr Miliband’s overall rating is grim even among Labour voters. "
While a fan of the blog - and a more measured perspective is always welcomed from the " triumph and disaster!" of daily polling, I did find the following sentence curious:
"Our figures for the main parties show a small movement, but hardly enough to justify the many column inches. In the last month, Labour have seen a marginal decline in their support, down 0.4 percentage points at 37.7%. The Conservatives have seen a slight rise, up 0.6 points at 31.8%."
Yesterday marked 35 years since the assassination of Bulgarian writer and critic of the totalitarian regime Georgi Markov in London. The attack was probably carried out by Francesco Gulino on behalf of the Bulgarian secret service with the assistance of the KGB.
The Conservatives will win a comfortable outright majority.
Would you be so kind as to say which individual constituencies the Conservatives will gain in order to achieve this ?
Yawn. You come out with this guff question every time I mention the likelihood of a Cons win. It's because you're so busy focusing on the trees you're missing the ruddy forest. Reminds me of that shite line 'we're doing better in the key constituencies' bollocks.
When the national mood swings for a Cons lead of 8-10% you can go do the math yourself on your little individual constituencies.
Well we'll just have to wait until this national mood swing occurs.
Any suggestions as to when it will happen and why?
I would hazard to guess that the Tories will post intermittent and small leads from the New Year to around the Euros in late May, take a dip following a solid UKIP performance, gradually rising in the autumn then being pretty consistent and above 5% from February to May, when the result on polling day will be broadly that predicted by Ricardohos.
Guys if I may draw on your collective wisdom? I've almost always live in safe Labour seats, so my opinion is somewhat clouded. Say the Conservative were on course to win the next GE (I take no position, only hypothecating), bar an earthquake, how could it happen? Take my neighbouring seat Bury South, typical bell weather seat, high percentage of workers moving between public and private sector, relatively low immigration, yet the Conservatives couldn't win it in 2010, with a great team and candidate. How could they conceivably win there or in similar seats, when they have lost most of their Cllr's and activist base and Labour have massively rebuilt, alibi from a small pool? Thanks in advance for your considered responses, SZ
Hold on a second. Just thought I would check Bury South. In 2005 it had a Labour majority of 22%! In 2010, the Tories secured a sizeable 8% swing - 3% more than nationally - though of course that wasn't sufficient. In short Bury South on its current boundaries is most emphatically not a bell-weather seat.
If the Tories repeat the same performance in 2015, they will get a ruddy landslide!
I was the campaign manager for the Con in Bury South, I can tell you we had a lot of "others" helping us, which I doubt will do the same again and since 2010 the Con vote has collapsed spectacularly. That said, (unaffordable Tax Credits aside) Bury South is demographically marginal, just the Lab MP has very dedicated activist as he never forgot them in the "Labour good years" Not knowing the thinking inside the Conservative party anymore, I'm curious how much social media/Tel canvassing can make the difference?
The vast bulk of the City's earnings come from abroad. I'm quite comfortbale with extracting a tithe from other countries...
Fair point.
But for how much longer ?
There was a time when most of the world's ships or motorbikes were made in this country. Then overseas competition were able to beat them on price and/or quality grounds.
The same thing will happen to the City and to most of the other services we now export.
At least having a cutlery set stamped 'Made in Sheffield' is a mark of quality - how many of the services we produce have extra cachet because of a UK location ? Some schools and universities but nobody is going to pay extra for the services of a London banker.
@ShneurOdze - If you were the Conservative campaign manager in Bury South, I would have thought you'd be congratulating yourself on such an admirable result. Your swing, at 8%, was 3% higher than in neighbouring Bury North but that seat was captured, being more marginal..
"On Tuesday, the flag of Gibraltar will fly across Whitehall to mark Gibraltar Day.
Clearly stage 1 of the grand EU renegotiation plan, which is for England and Wales to leave the UK and instead become part of Gibraltar, releasing them from the Common Agricultural Policy and all the other bits that Gibraltar has opted out of.
No, the Channel Islands have first dibs - 1066 & all that.....not sure we can afford them though.....
Clearly stage 1 of the grand EU renegotiation plan, which is for England and Wales to leave the UK and instead become part of Gibraltar, releasing them from the Common Agricultural Policy and all the other bits that Gibraltar has opted out of.
Sounds like an excellent plan: "Let it be so!" Makes more sense than 'It is eight'.
Hows your research go EiT? Is it a frangible, or is eight summinck like 4 (or maybe five)...?
ShneurOdze - welcome to the site - an auspicious start as you've prompted a series of serious replies.
I think an outright Tory win depends primarily on a slump in the 2010 Labour voters. I'm very confident of the post-2010 LibDem switchers in marginals - they have switched for a specific reason (that they don't want to ally with the Tories), and recent Tory moves to fend off UKIP have reinforced it. They're motivated, angry and can't wait to vote the Government out.
That certainty is IMO less for the 2010 Labour vote taken as a whole, or indeed the 2010 Tory vote. There are people in there who voted out of habit, out of sympathy or dislike for Gordon, because their MP helped rehouse their budgie, all kinds of little things that we can't pick up in polls. (Someone once told me seriously that she voted for me because I was taller than my opponent.) I'd think that the large majority will still vote the same way, but there has to be some potential for either a 5% Lab-Con swing or a 5% Con-Lab swing - it's remarkable that the polls show virtually no evidence of either (churn is well under 10%, the lowest I can remember, ever). I think that could change either way, which I why I believe the odds on another hung Parliament are too short.
Fox - thanks, it's OK, had understood your post as you meant it. Some posters are aggressive, as we all know, and I don't think it's especially directed at women, but some women may be even more put off by it than others. On the whole PB's moderators do a good job at stamping on personal aggression - the main problem of the site IMO is the volume of "your party/leader sucks" posts, which are just tedious, convince nobody and sometimes clog up entire threads.
It's worth remembering as well that a chunk of the 2010 electorate will have died by 2015. The newly qualified electors in their teens and twenties are likely on the whole to be less tribal than those who will have died.
An interesting little note on conhome about Cameron and Merkel getting together to fillet the EU - starting with slashing the number of commissioners
I'm glad I ignored the torrent of mystic smeg advice from the left about 'flounce bounces' and spineless fops achieving nothing from the other countries.
Can a well paid job as the chief executive of a political 'charity' be far away?
On her initial election did she not pocket ~£90K p.a. as a charity representative (on top of her Westminster abuses)? Odious little child with a will to please herself and not to serve anyone else....
@ShneurOdze - If you were the Conservative campaign manager in Bury South, I would have thought you'd be congratulating yourself on such an admirable result. Your swing, at 8%, was 3% higher than in neighbouring Bury North but that seat was captured, being more marginal..
2012 council results in the wards making up Bury South Labour 13674 Conservative 5452 Labour 8 wards Conservatives 1 and in Bury North Labour 10915 Conservative 8360 Labour 6 wards Conservatives 2
Another thing that could go wrong is that Labour just fails to match the effectiveness of Gordon Brown's ground operation. Apparently it was actually very effective,
Only if you believe those Labour groundworkers who - surprise, surprise - have a vested interest in blowing their own horn.
There were far more Conservative gains above the national swing than Labour holds below it.
If every constituency had followed UNS in 2010 we could well have had a Lab-Lib coalition.
Additionally the change in incumbancy in so many marginal constituencies means that it will be much harder in reality than it suggests on paper for Labour to make a significant number of gains.
What we're likely to see in 2015 is some repeat of 1974.
Yet, given how badly Labour did, in terms of vote share, things could have been worse. The swing to the Tories was about 1% better in marginal seats than it was overall, but Labour incumbents still blunted that swing.
Can a well paid job as the chief executive of a political 'charity' be far away?
On her initial election did she not pocket ~£90K p.a. as a charity representative (on top of her Westminster abuses)? Odious little child with a will to please herself and not to serve anyone else....
I can remember the similarly critical posts of her prior to the 2010 GE and saying that there was not a snowball's chance in hell of her winning the new seat . You were wrong then and are wrong now in your opinion of her .
I wonder what Sarah Teather's new job is? If she wanted to shaft Clegg and The Coalition why didn't she just resign as an MP and cause a bigger splash?
An interesting little note on conhome about Cameron and Merkel getting together to fillet the EU - starting with slashing the number of commissioners
I'm glad I ignored the torrent of mystic smeg advice from the left about 'flounce bounces' and spineless fops achieving nothing from the other countries.
So is this a plan to reduce the national element and appoint commissioners on merit from wherever they are in the EU, or is it a plan to divide up the jobs among the big countries and screw the small countries? If it's the former it makes the EU less a group of independent nations and more like a normal country, which I think is a good idea, but isn't usually a British objective. If it's the latter obviously the big countries will like the idea, but the difficulty is getting the smaller countries that are getting screwed to agree, since everybody has a veto.
Either way it doesn't sound like something you'd have to flounce out of meetings to get the Germans to agree to...
The Conservatives will win a comfortable outright majority.
Would you be so kind as to say which individual constituencies the Conservatives will gain in order to achieve this ?
Yawn. You come out with this guff question every time I mention the likelihood of a Cons win. It's because you're so busy focusing on the trees you're missing the ruddy forest. Reminds me of that shite line 'we're doing better in the key constituencies' bollocks.
When the national mood swings for a Cons lead of 8-10% you can go do the math yourself on your little individual constituencies.
Well we'll just have to wait until this national mood swing occurs.
Any suggestions as to when it will happen and why?
I would hazard to guess that the Tories will post intermittent and small leads from the New Year to around the Euros in late May, take a dip following a solid UKIP performance, gradually rising in the autumn then being pretty consistent and above 5% from February to May, when the result on polling day will be broadly that predicted by Ricardohos.
It will be the economy.
If you're hoping on some 'feel good' factor in the economy you're going to be wrong.
Even though the word 'boom' is as much misused in economic terms as 'world class' is regarding English footballers we're not going to have a 'boom'.
Now it may be that a 'fear factor' works to keep the Conservative vote solid (as it did in 1992) but I'm not sure how this will atract new voters to the Conservatives.
Cameron failed to 'seal the deal' in 2010 and nothing that he has done since suggests he will gain the 3%+ he needs to get an overall majority.
Though why establishment Conservatives are so desperate to be in government between 2015-2020 with all the problems we will face baffles me.
And with that time to say goodbye for the afternoon.
@EdmundInTokyo "The extra hurdle that you don't mention is that the LibDem left seem to have defected to Labour, while the LibDem right hasn't defected to the Tories, which gives Labour another big block of voters they didn't have in 2010 before you even start trying to swing people who voted for Gordon Brown in 2010 over to David Cameron's side."
We often see the assumption on here that every single one of the Labour "rump" who voted for Gordon Brown will vote Labour in 2015. This may not be quite right. There are 2 significant factors (closely linked) that will be different in Labour's campaign next time - Peter Mandelson - presumably he won;t be so involved. - Fear - I think this played a big part in preventing a Tory majority. Can Labour use it again?
Also the right assumption to be poking at. I don't think I'm really convinced by either of those, though.
Peter Mandelson - presumably he won;t be so involved.
I'm a bit skeptical about the impact of particular individuals on campaigns. Presumably if Mandelson was _that_ important they could get him back, but I think the techniques are reasonably well known.
- Fear - I think this played a big part in preventing a Tory majority. Can Labour use it again?
I think so. Cameron's had to undo a lot of the good branding work he did to slow the bleeding to UKIP - I think this shows up in the polling - and the Tories and LibDems will both be working hard to to differentiate themselves from each other, by pretending the government would have been completely different if it hadn't been for the coalition.
I think a more promising angle would be to see whether there were a chunk of voters, probably not strongly politically aligned, who voted Labour because they had some grudging respect for Gordon Brown as a serious politician, and won't see Ed Miliband the same way. In other words, is the Labour core vote actually a fair bit lower than 29%?
According to Yougov, about one in five Lib Dem voters from 2010 have shifted rightwards to Conservative or UKIP.
I wonder what Sarah Teather's new job is? If she wanted to shaft Clegg and The Coalition why didn't she just resign as an MP and cause a bigger splash?
@EdmundInTokyo "The extra hurdle that you don't mention is that the LibDem left seem to have defected to Labour, while the LibDem right hasn't defected to the Tories, which gives Labour another big block of voters they didn't have in 2010 before you even start trying to swing people who voted for Gordon Brown in 2010 over to David Cameron's side."
We often see the assumption on here that every single one of the Labour "rump" who voted for Gordon Brown will vote Labour in 2015. This may not be quite right. There are 2 significant factors (closely linked) that will be different in Labour's campaign next time - Peter Mandelson - presumably he won;t be so involved. - Fear - I think this played a big part in preventing a Tory majority. Can Labour use it again?
Also the right assumption to be poking at. I don't think I'm really convinced by either of those, though.
Peter Mandelson - presumably he won;t be so involved.
I'm a bit skeptical about the impact of particular individuals on campaigns. Presumably if Mandelson was _that_ important they could get him back, but I think the techniques are reasonably well known.
- Fear - I think this played a big part in preventing a Tory majority. Can Labour use it again?
I think so. Cameron's had to undo a lot of the good branding work he did to slow the bleeding to UKIP - I think this shows up in the polling - and the Tories and LibDems will both be working hard to to differentiate themselves from each other, by pretending the government would have been completely different if it hadn't been for the coalition.
I think a more promising angle would be to see whether there were a chunk of voters, probably not strongly politically aligned, who voted Labour because they had some grudging respect for Gordon Brown as a serious politician, and won't see Ed Miliband the same way. In other words, is the Labour core vote actually a fair bit lower than 29%?
According to Yougov, about one in five Lib Dem voters from 2010 have shifted rightwards to Conservative or UKIP.
I wonder what Sarah Teather's new job is? If she wanted to shaft Clegg and The Coalition why didn't she just resign as an MP and cause a bigger splash?
That certainty is IMO less for the 2010 Labour vote taken as a whole, or indeed the 2010 Tory vote. There are people in there who voted out of habit, out of sympathy or dislike for Gordon, because their MP helped rehouse their budgie, all kinds of little things that we can't pick up in polls.
I think you are discounting the very effective Labour campaign last time round. It appeared that a lot of the strategy was based on 'evil Tories are going to take your benefits away'. I suspect that persuaded a lot of waverers to stick with the devil they knew. Clearly this will be blunted this time around
According to Yougov, about one in five Lib Dem voters from 2010 have shifted rightwards to Conservative or UKIP.
That is not correct , it is around 1 in 7
And presumably a lot of those LibDem->UKIP switchers will be protest voters rather than tactically-squeezable right-wingers.
It's a bit hard to see a really big move to Con because if you think the coalition government is OK you'll probably vote the same way again. On the other hand I suppose it's possible you'll get some anti-Labour tactical voting by people who like the coalition and don't like Ed Miliband. And maybe there are some Cleggasm LibDems out there who will go with whoever puts on the best debate performance next time or whatever.
Constant new government regulations means businesses have to spend ever more money on QA consultants, HR consultants, H&S consultants, environmental consultants etc etc.
These people add fck all value but significant extra overhead costs leading to output becoming more expensive. While extra employee time is taken up with performing all the new procedures the consultants have deemed necessary.
Customers then buy cheaper alternatives from countries which don't bother with QA, HR, H&S or environmental concerns.
Meanwhile these 'consultants' become ever more influential in creating more regulations for them to consult about.
I remember 'Have I Got News For You' saying in an episode during the 1990s that there were now more personal managers in the UK than miners.
God knows how many the white collar managers/consultants overheads amount to now.
Don't muddle up QA with the rest.
In my industry, at least, without QA/QC you don't have a product.
Lobbing one new thought in here, at what point will incumbent LD MPs judge that they have to do something about Clegg and the Coalition to give themselves a better chance in a GE campaign that is now 18 months away*?
Is it before 2014 or shortly after the Euro elections or Sept/Oct 2014. Leaving it until Nov 2014 may be too late, so their window for change may be reducing to the next 12 or so months. * Ms Teather
According to Yougov, about one in five Lib Dem voters from 2010 have shifted rightwards to Conservative or UKIP.
That is not correct , it is around 1 in 7
And presumably a lot of those LibDem->UKIP switchers will be protest voters rather than tactically-squeezable right-wingers.
It's a bit hard to see a really big move to Con because if you think the coalition government is OK you'll probably vote the same way again. On the other hand I suppose it's possible you'll get some anti-Labour tactical voting by people who like the coalition and don't like Ed Miliband. And maybe there are some Cleggasm LibDems out there who will go with whoever puts on the best debate performance next time or whatever.
The ICM/Populus figures are in fact much lower around 1 in 10 .
I think you are discounting the very effective Labour campaign last time round. It appeared that a lot of the strategy was based on 'evil Tories are going to take your benefits away'. I suspect that persuaded a lot of waverers to stick with the devil they knew. Clearly this will be blunted this time around
If Labour ran a campaign now about attacks on welfare it could increase the Conservative vote.
I can remember the similarly critical posts of her prior to the 2010 GE and saying that there was not a snowball's chance in hell of her winning the new seat . You were wrong then and are wrong now in your opinion of her .
Ehh? I may not like Ms Teather but - apart from the obvious "charity" links - she does not float upon the radar. I would certainly not know; care or punt for whatever seat she occupies: Too lightweight for me son....
Spot on the noughties saw the growth of the "distributive" sectors in law, government and finance. White collar jobs which don't actually produce much but take a cut from the sectors that do and push their profits down. It's the secular version of the tithe.
The vast bulk of the City's earnings come from abroad. I'm quite comfortbale with extracting a tithe from other countries...
Right so you earn money by investing our savings in other people's countries rather than our own ? i can understand how Germany has a competitve advantage.
I was thinking about loan products (underwrite-to-distribute rather than take-and-hold). We lend a bunch upfront, and then recycle quickly to local banks and markets. Walk away with our 2% and our capital intact (assuming we have judged the risks correctly).
Equity investment - which is what you are thinking about - is much more heavily weighted (probably sub-optimally so) to the UK
Constant new government regulations means businesses have to spend ever more money on QA consultants, HR consultants, H&S consultants, environmental consultants etc etc.
These people add fck all value but significant extra overhead costs leading to output becoming more expensive. While extra employee time is taken up with performing all the new procedures the consultants have deemed necessary.
Customers then buy cheaper alternatives from countries which don't bother with QA, HR, H&S or environmental concerns.
Meanwhile these 'consultants' become ever more influential in creating more regulations for them to consult about.
I remember 'Have I Got News For You' saying in an episode during the 1990s that there were now more personal managers in the UK than miners.
God knows how many the white collar managers/consultants overheads amount to now.
Don't muddle up QA with the rest.
In my industry, at least, without QA/QC you don't have a product.
I think there's a difference between a consultant who is contracted to handle a specific job that the business requires, and a consultant who gets paid to tell you what they think you should do.
.......... If she wanted to shaft Clegg and The Coalition why didn't she just resign as an MP and cause a bigger splash?
Please re-phrase that.
If Sarah Teather wanted to embarrass Clegg and The Coalition why didn't she just resign and cause a bigger splash?
If Sarah Teather wanted to shaft Clegg and The Coalition why didn't she just resign and cause a bigger problem?
If Sarah Teather wanted to cause real trouble for Clegg and The Coalition why didn't she just apply for The Chilten Hundreds and trigger off a difficult by-election?
But Nick will know that the study design was crap - it should have been a double-blind study with an objective assessment.
Many studies are flawed in some way because of possible confounders, but usually the scientists (but not the reporters) will also report the caveats. Add in special interest blindness, and it's no wonder that AGW work is so reported in such one-eyed ways.
The vast bulk of the City's earnings come from abroad. I'm quite comfortbale with extracting a tithe from other countries...
Fair point.
But for how much longer ?
There was a time when most of the world's ships or motorbikes were made in this country. Then overseas competition were able to beat them on price and/or quality grounds.
The same thing will happen to the City and to most of the other services we now export.
At least having a cutlery set stamped 'Made in Sheffield' is a mark of quality - how many of the services we produce have extra cachet because of a UK location ? Some schools and universities but nobody is going to pay extra for the services of a London banker.
We have a number of advantages - language, location etc. Additionally, we have easy access to the global law of business (English), and a relatively predictable and attractive tax and regualtory system.
This means we attract more than our fair share of talented international individuals to London to work in financial services. There's nothing fundamental keeping them there - but there is the classic "cluster" effect where it makes sense for competing companies to group together in the same geographical area.
About half a million people in the UK die each year so 2.5 million over a 5 year parliament.
If we estimate that 0.3 million are ineligible due to being children, foreign, prisoners etc that leaves 2.2 million
Now turnout at the last election was 65% but as this group are mostly older let's increase it to 75%
This means we had 1.65 million votes cast in 2010. As older voters tend to be more tribally loyal to the big 2, perhaps we should allocate it 40% Con, 40% Lab, 20% other
That suggests Lab and Con will each lose 660,000 votes or 2.2% of their 2010 vote by 2015 due to death. Of course some will be replaced by new voters but as mentioned these are less likely to be tribal and less likely to vote (and if they do vote may be more influencable by things like the Cleggasm)
Of course it could also be argued this problem is worse for Labour due to lower life expectancy in Labour areas
Twitter Faisal Islam @faisalislam 5m Bob Crow calls for General Strike... murmurings of coordinated strike action elsewhere.... Crow also launching a No to EU party tomorrow
Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC 9m Prentice of Unison: "the focus now should be election, not a special conference contemplating our navel. That is cloud cuckoo land."
That certainty is IMO less for the 2010 Labour vote taken as a whole, or indeed the 2010 Tory vote. There are people in there who voted out of habit, out of sympathy or dislike for Gordon, because their MP helped rehouse their budgie, all kinds of little things that we can't pick up in polls.
I think you are discounting the very effective Labour campaign last time round. It appeared that a lot of the strategy was based on 'evil Tories are going to take your benefits away'. I suspect that persuaded a lot of waverers to stick with the devil they knew. Clearly this will be blunted this time around
Twitter Faisal Islam @faisalislam 5m Bob Crow calls for General Strike... murmurings of coordinated strike action elsewhere.... Crow also launching a No to EU party tomorrow
Twitter Faisal Islam @faisalislam 5m Bob Crow calls for General Strike... murmurings of coordinated strike action elsewhere.... Crow also launching a No to EU party tomorrow
What? But Mr Crow has been Mr No 2 EU Party for years already.
Twitter Faisal Islam @faisalislam 5m Bob Crow calls for General Strike... murmurings of coordinated strike action elsewhere.... Crow also launching a No to EU party tomorrow
Chrisg formerly of PB parish. Twitter chris g @chrisg0000 6m Dave Prentis & Bob Crowe now joining Len McCluskey in the headlines, years since Unions made so much noise. #Miliband looking weak.
Twitter Faisal Islam @faisalislam 5m Bob Crow calls for General Strike... murmurings of coordinated strike action elsewhere.... Crow also launching a No to EU party tomorrow
Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC 9m Prentice of Unison: "the focus now should be election, not a special conference contemplating our navel. That is cloud cuckoo land."
Spot on the noughties saw the growth of the "distributive" sectors in law, government and finance. White collar jobs which don't actually produce much but take a cut from the sectors that do and push their profits down. It's the secular version of the tithe.
The vast bulk of the City's earnings come from abroad. I'm quite comfortbale with extracting a tithe from other countries...
Right so you earn money by investing our savings in other people's countries rather than our own ? i can understand how Germany has a competitve advantage.
I was thinking about loan products (underwrite-to-distribute rather than take-and-hold). We lend a bunch upfront, and then recycle quickly to local banks and markets. Walk away with our 2% and our capital intact (assuming we have judged the risks correctly).
Equity investment - which is what you are thinking about - is much more heavily weighted (probably sub-optimally so) to the UK
Actually Charles I was gently ribbing you on how much the City is valued outside the SE. And while many of the SE Blues rush to its defence ( or more accurately the defence of their jobs ) the fact remains until the Conservatives have something for people outside their Southern Heartlands, they won't get a majority. With under2 years to go there's little sign Cameron realises this.
Twitter Faisal Islam @faisalislam 5m Bob Crow calls for General Strike... murmurings of coordinated strike action elsewhere.... Crow also launching a No to EU party tomorrow
Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC 9m Prentice of Unison: "the focus now should be election, not a special conference contemplating our navel. That is cloud cuckoo land."
Both the TUC and Labour Conferences this year are going to be a very interesting political bell weather for Ed Miliband's Leadership and the direction the Labour party will take in the run up to the next GE.
Humanity appears to be just clever enough to work out how stupid it is.
But more – the source is a nice example of a simple psycho-social experiment that is pertinent to many of the discussions here. A few pb.com egos might deflate if they read it with humility.
I understand that USA median income has been static since the early seventies, despite incresing economic size. It is quite possible that ours will follow suit.
In many ways this is the effect of globalisation, so while East Europe and Asia looks more like us economically we are trending the other way. The welfare state needs to adapt or die.
US median income started to stagnate a few years after the 1965 immigration act for entirely obvious supply and demand reasons.
1)House prices are going up with only a mild increase in supply,so there`s the potential of a bubble.Rising interest rates could result in some mortgage-payers being unable to afford it raising worries that it will be a repeat of 2008.
2)Rising gilts are a blow to the government`s deficit reduction policy.Their initial stated principle was to cull the deficit within this Parliament and they may not even achieve half of that.So it`s politically important.
I must have missed the increase in interest rates.
It's funny what you passes you by waiting for a policy from the Labour party !!
Mortgages are generally paid over a 20 to 25 year period. If house prices are rising as average earnings are stagnating or falling it does not take a genius to work out what even a slight rise in interest rates could do. If they return to historical norms it could get very nasty indeed.
IMO, the biggest long-term economic problem has been the fact that growth in output hasn't fed through into growth in median incomes since about 2000. I don't know if that's permanent, or just a blip.
Massively increasing the supply of labour will reduce the price.
Comments
GMB gen sec Paul Kenny - "the chickens have come home to roost" for Labour after @Ed_Miliband given "pretty grubby advice" on Falkirk #twtw
" The Duke of York was challenged by police officers who failed to recognise him as he took a stroll in the gardens of Buckingham Palace less than 48 hours after a break-in at the Queen’s London home, it has emerged.
In an embarrassment for the force, the Metropolitan Police today confirmed that a man was ordered to verify his identity by two officers at about 6pm on Wednesday, although it denied a newspaper report that the officers drew guns and ordered Prince Andrew to get down on the ground." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article3863586.ece
Pudsey: Jamie Hanley
Argyll & Bute: Mary Galbraith
Elmet & Rothwell will also select by the end of the day. Probably Karen Bruce or Veronica KIng
Awesome Ed
"Our figures for the main parties show a small movement, but hardly enough to justify the many column inches. In the last month, Labour have seen a marginal decline in their support, down 0.4 percentage points at 37.7%. The Conservatives have seen a slight rise, up 0.6 points at 31.8%."
http://nottspolitics.org/2013/09/05/polling-observatory-28-too-early-to-telloutside-the-westminster-bubble/
Or, in précis, "Labour's lead fell by 1 percentage point in one month."
Yesterday marked 35 years since the assassination of Bulgarian writer and critic of the totalitarian regime Georgi Markov in London. The attack was probably carried out by Francesco Gulino on behalf of the Bulgarian secret service with the assistance of the KGB.
Markov died as a result of an incident on the Waterloo Bridge in London street when a micro-engineered pellet containing ricin was fired into his leg via an umbrella. This type of deadly poison breaks down in the body after death and can not be traced . Markov died on September 11, 1978 in London. http://www.standartnews.com/english/read/35_years_since_the_kgb_assassination_of_writer_georgi_markov-542.html
It will be the economy.
That said, (unaffordable Tax Credits aside) Bury South is demographically marginal, just the Lab MP has very dedicated activist as he never forgot them in the "Labour good years"
Not knowing the thinking inside the Conservative party anymore, I'm curious how much social media/Tel canvassing can make the difference?
But for how much longer ?
There was a time when most of the world's ships or motorbikes were made in this country. Then overseas competition were able to beat them on price and/or quality grounds.
The same thing will happen to the City and to most of the other services we now export.
At least having a cutlery set stamped 'Made in Sheffield' is a mark of quality - how many of the services we produce have extra cachet because of a UK location ? Some schools and universities but nobody is going to pay extra for the services of a London banker.
YouGov Net Leadership Ratings (amongst own supporters)- Cameron 81 Clegg 26 Miliband -4
Hows your research go EiT? Is it a frangible, or is eight summinck like 4 (or maybe five)...?
There was an MP named Teather;
CV as light as a feather;
With students to please;
She tripled their fees
& Quit at the sight of bad weather.
Can a well paid job as the chief executive of a political 'charity' be far away?
I'm glad I ignored the torrent of mystic smeg advice from the left about 'flounce bounces' and spineless fops achieving nothing from the other countries.
and in Bury North Labour 10915 Conservative 8360 Labour 6 wards Conservatives 2
As the Cameroons seem hell-bent on their own Iraq, Syria may give Cerise an opportunity to turn his poll numbers round if he wants to take it.
Billy Hayes of the CWU says Ed Miliband's ideas are 'ill thought through.' #tuc13
Either way it doesn't sound like something you'd have to flounce out of meetings to get the Germans to agree to...
Even though the word 'boom' is as much misused in economic terms as 'world class' is regarding English footballers we're not going to have a 'boom'.
Now it may be that a 'fear factor' works to keep the Conservative vote solid (as it did in 1992) but I'm not sure how this will atract new voters to the Conservatives.
Cameron failed to 'seal the deal' in 2010 and nothing that he has done since suggests he will gain the 3%+ he needs to get an overall majority.
Though why establishment Conservatives are so desperate to be in government between 2015-2020 with all the problems we will face baffles me.
And with that time to say goodbye for the afternoon.
That kind of approach is unacceptable in my mind.
Of course, he may not be misogynistic - but just an unpleasant w*nker.
It's a bit hard to see a really big move to Con because if you think the coalition government is OK you'll probably vote the same way again. On the other hand I suppose it's possible you'll get some anti-Labour tactical voting by people who like the coalition and don't like Ed Miliband. And maybe there are some Cleggasm LibDems out there who will go with whoever puts on the best debate performance next time or whatever.
In my industry, at least, without QA/QC you don't have a product.
Is it before 2014 or shortly after the Euro elections or Sept/Oct 2014. Leaving it until Nov 2014 may be too late, so their window for change may be reducing to the next 12 or so months.
* Ms Teather
Equity investment - which is what you are thinking about - is much more heavily weighted (probably sub-optimally so) to the UK
One of these is useful.
If Sarah Teather wanted to shaft Clegg and The Coalition why didn't she just resign and cause a bigger problem?
If Sarah Teather wanted to cause real trouble for Clegg and The Coalition why didn't she just apply for The Chilten Hundreds and trigger off a difficult by-election?
OSM,
As NP says, an interesting link.
But Nick will know that the study design was crap - it should have been a double-blind study with an objective assessment.
Many studies are flawed in some way because of possible confounders, but usually the scientists (but not the reporters) will also report the caveats. Add in special interest blindness, and it's no wonder that AGW work is so reported in such one-eyed ways.
This means we attract more than our fair share of talented international individuals to London to work in financial services. There's nothing fundamental keeping them there - but there is the classic "cluster" effect where it makes sense for competing companies to group together in the same geographical area.
About half a million people in the UK die each year so 2.5 million over a 5 year parliament.
If we estimate that 0.3 million are ineligible due to being children, foreign, prisoners etc that leaves 2.2 million
Now turnout at the last election was 65% but as this group are mostly older let's increase it to 75%
This means we had 1.65 million votes cast in 2010. As older voters tend to be more tribally loyal to the big 2, perhaps we should allocate it 40% Con, 40% Lab, 20% other
That suggests Lab and Con will each lose 660,000 votes or 2.2% of their 2010 vote by 2015 due to death. Of course some will be replaced by new voters but as mentioned these are less likely to be tribal and less likely to vote (and if they do vote may be more influencable by things like the Cleggasm)
Of course it could also be argued this problem is worse for Labour due to lower life expectancy in Labour areas
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_EhJQ-WwbN6Q/SXjaqXv5SsI/AAAAAAAAAxA/bdyvOahTFnI/s1600-h/dawnbutler.jpg
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 5m
Bob Crow calls for General Strike... murmurings of coordinated strike action elsewhere.... Crow also launching a No to EU party tomorrow
Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC 9m
Prentice of Unison: "the focus now should be election, not a special conference contemplating our navel. That is cloud cuckoo land."
He's joining UKIP?
Twitter
chris g @chrisg0000 6m
Dave Prentis & Bob Crowe now joining Len McCluskey in the headlines, years since Unions made so much noise. #Miliband looking weak.
We also have this
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5122960/Red-Len-McCluskey-strike-plot-to-cripple-Britain.html
"BRITAIN’S biggest union has drawn up a secret masterplan to drag the country to its knees with a wave of strikes.
Unite boss Red Len McCluskey put activists on an industrial war footing, saying: “Prepare for crisis.”
His plot to wreak havoc is revealed in a leaked memo obtained by The Sun."
Same old unions