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There were three polls released overnight, The YouGov for the Sunday Times, an Opinium poll for the Observer, and a Wisdom Index Poll for the Sunday Telegraph (which asks what voters think each party will get at the next General Election)
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Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister
Wakey, wakey PB youngsters .... we've got an "Ed is Crap" thread to muster !!
It's been a couple of weeks since the last one...
However glancing into my Sunday morning tealeaves indicates a slow decline for Ed slipping to the low thirties before he gets the full on campaign treatment and contends with Gordon for another spectacularly awful election night.
The more enticing question will be, might Cameron eek out a small majority or retain his present comfortable Coalition position ??
No boundary changes
Falling living standards
Useless fops/chumocracy
Toxic brand
Strong, decisive LotO
Tory majority nailed on!
a) They should be ejected for providing false witness and bringing the party into disrepute, with an investigation into who (if anyone) was behind them
b) Were they offered anything to retract their testimony, my guess is an autographed picture of Ed would not have been enough ?
or
c) were the witnesses threatened or intimidated in any way?
Quite a fellow - Former England football manager one day, Conservative fruit loop another, husband to the inestimable Mrs Bone every day and now first rate wind blower last night !!
The last three UKIP projections were 3,2,2.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ditching-union-funds-is-ed-milibands-sound-investment-8803354.html
Looks like John Rentoul gets it.
Still, it's a good thing Ed's shining the light of openness onto the whole affair, isn't it?
1. Economy improving steadily.
2. Poll lead falling steadily
3. Funding falling steadily
4. Personal ratings falling steadily
Steady as you go Ed, steady as you go !!
2.Gilt rates going up steadily at high of 3%
3.A&E crisis looming.
4.Senior Lib Dem to quit because of Clegg`s policies.
We can all pick and choose.
I'd rather pick and choose mine than yours and any serious pundit would !!
I am really beginning to feel sorry for Ed now. It's not his fault that he's a square peg in a round hole. We expect PMs to be leaders, and even when they're wrong, they gain something for decisiveness.
Churchill and Kennedy had loads of faults but they knew their own mind. Ed may well be cerebral, and happy to discuss the competing factors before making a decision. He may even be decisive in his own household. "No, Justine, I'll definitely have my eggs fried today." He may even get most of the calls correct (eventually). But none of that matters enough.
"It's not fair"?
But life isn't always fair.
If position is reversed(C-38,L-34),then Con short by 13.(Source:Graphic Swingometer,UKPR)
Tories have a mountain to climb and they lost the next election in January 2013.
"Nobody's rushing to join the Labour Party".
Tories couldn`t get a majority with Labour on 29% and they`ll certainly be higher than that next time.I think we can all agree on that.
They've both had reasonable success and both have a lot of mileage left in them. The Tories should worry that their dislike factor is 55 against Labour's 44 and Labour should worry that improving Ed's image will cost money. Something they're going to be short of after their spat with the unions.
The good news is that it shouldn't be too difficult. Think 'Not Flash Just Gordon. He's still an open book and relatively unknown.
Start with "Eds credibilty"
Labour have no automatic rights to funding - after all, many unions are not affiliated with the party. If Labour has chosen to bring in rules which the GMB dislikes, then the GMB is perfectly free to take its ball home.
As for the TUC speech: Miliband flip-flopped on Syria. He flip-flopped on Falkirk. Will the TUC make it three out of three in a fortnight?
Presently Labour are on track for a range of 28% - 32%.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6vU_Urxgbg
The rise in Bond yields has the effect of greatly reducing the deficit of defined benefit pensions schemes, and also should increase annuity rates for those on defined contribution schemes. It is good news for pensioners and savers.
It also shows that there are other sources competing for spare capital, such as companies bidding for investment.
The consequent rise in interest rates will help savers and prevent the rise in house prices getting out of control.
The organisation that will suffer the most is the exchequer, which will find itself paying more to borrow. This means that there can be no relaxation of austerity over the next parliament, and certainly not a Balls spending spree.
It is good news.
l 1.Housing bubble getting bigger.
2.Gilt rates going up steadily at high of 3%
3.A&E crisis looming.
4.Senior Lib Dem to quit because of Clegg`s policies.
We can all pick and choose.
Just trim a tad. You'll feel much better for it !!
`It is good news.`
1)House prices are going up with only a mild increase in supply,so there`s the potential of a bubble.Rising interest rates could result in some mortgage-payers being unable to afford it raising worries that it will be a repeat of 2008.
2)Rising gilts are a blow to the government`s deficit reduction policy.Their initial stated principle was to cull the deficit within this Parliament and they may not even achieve half of that.So it`s politically important.
He either ploughs on and tells the union leaders where to go, or he backs down.
The first will produce short-term pain but long term gain. The second? Unthinkable, even Ed has to nail his colours to the mast now.
Personally I think a small Conservative majority is much less likely than another Conservative led Coalition. I also believe differential turnout will adversely effect Labour in the marginals.
Eastleigh will be a LibDem hold.
It's funny what you passes you by waiting for a policy from the Labour party !!
2) Gilt rates are predicted to rise by the OBR, and are factored in to the forecasts that they make. Rising rates won't come as a surprise -- falling or static ones will. See here for instance (p 93):
http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/December-2012-Economic-and-fiscal-outlook23423423.pdf
"3 years in situ mean he's not an open book Roger, his lack of policies and positioning mean the vacuum he created has been filled for him he's Dwayne Dibbley"
Cast your mind back to the early days of Godon PM. Everyone thought they knew him after ten years as chancellor then some very smart marketing coincided with a couple of confected crises and suddenly a bumbling buffoon became 'Chance' the gardiner. Ed could yet become popular in a way Hague IDS Kinnock and Howard never could
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0078841/
He's Steve McLaren in the umbrella phase.
MBE is right-wing: GFY! I'm "right-wing" but hold one of the most liberal (Millsian) positions on here. MBE should be bookmarked as another instance of Yellow Submarine; a thoughtful centrist who is self-derprecating. The fact that Sven does not undertand this shows the lack of quality that our "senior" politicains possess....
Fact - Interest rates have not increased and accorded to the BoE will not do so for some time yet !!
Labour conference is going to be interesting. If there is to be a putsch it has to be very soon, or there has to be a bite on the bullet and acceptance of Ed Milibands policies (and some attempt to put these into comprehensible form)
The LDs should not cosy too much up to Labour. Drowning people clutching each other is not a good idea. There should be discussion in the LDs about how they would work a coalition again if Tories are largest party in 2015, which certainly looks possible.
Ed Miliband does not even have a positive reputation to begin with. How does he rebuilt it now? What possible mechanism can he use to recover?
Hoping Monza's an exciting and profitable race.
Mr. Jessop, you're wrong about E. Miliband. He does have a reputation. Admtitedly, it's for being a two-faced backstabber, and agreeing with French presidents and Russian foreign policy, but it's there.
He has also vowed to reduce the foreign aid budget by A$4.5bn ($4bn; £2.6bn).
But New Zealand Prime Minister John Key warned the cuts would strain small Pacific island nations, a major beneficiary of Australian aid.
"These are countries that need a lot of support and help, so if there is less money coming their way, they'll obviously feel that over time," he said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24005687
Mr Sox, I think that is an excellent summary of the situation.
Gilt rates are also being pushed higher by developing countries withdrawing capital to protect their currencies. As this will reduce the proportion of our gilts held abroad this is also ulitmately good news.
The idea that it is ok for governments to borrow at rates of about 1% when inflation is nearer 3% is truly nuts and dangerous. What sort of politician could resist? Even someone with the vision of George might be tempted to slow down the cut in borrowing and increase infrastructure spending. And he has.
This sounds tiresome - I can imagine grappling to get the thing out of its holster whenever someone rings. Is there some serious science behind this, or are they just covering themselves?
Interest rates are currently disconnected from gilt yields, but are also disconnected from BoE rates at the retail level.
These coming back to alignment are further signs of normalisation and recovery of the economy.
I am not expecting short term rises in interest rates, but shortly after 2015, and planning my own finances on that basis.
No messy draws, excellent coverage on the box and the depth of the mens game ensures some varied opportunities.
I've gone heavy with Nadal from early in the American hard court season. His form has been fantastic and his US Open run has been no less impressive.
The compilers of that blog are just as guilty of projecting their own wishes when reading the chicken entrails. The compilers of that blog largely dismiss a 1% reduction in the gap between Labour and the Conservatives in a month. This followed a 0.5% reduction in the gap the previous month which they also dismissed. One wonders when they might start regarding the reduction as potentially significant.
The biggest certain effect is thermal heating of human tissue, although the powers used do not give much of an effect. Then there is the heat given off by the device itself; some mobiles do get somewhat warm with everything turned on.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_phone_radiation_and_health
I'm guessing they've included the text to help negate any future potential claims; e.g. 'Well, we did say to use it in its holster'.
Or there might be a technical reason why it's advised - RF is a weird little beastie at the best of times. Think of the iPhone 4's Grip of Death.
http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/events/iphone-4-death-grip
From what I've gathered Nadal is having a rather good comeback. Shame Federer appears on an increasingly steep decline, however.
In many ways this is the effect of globalisation, so while East Europe and Asia looks more like us economically we are trending the other way. The welfare state needs to adapt or die.
Perchance the ICM Wisdom poll immediately post Tory conference will have a Tory lead.
If Labour ditches the union link, what will be the difference between them and the lib dems? Not that much, it seems to me.