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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What 2018 could have in store for Trump (and who might he face
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What 2018 could have in store for Trump (and who might he face in 2020)
Having spent a few weeks in New Jersey, as I usually do this time of year, it will not come as much of a surprise that the news media there is wall to wall Trump. However, as a keen observer of US politics, I do enjoy being over there and watching the political comings and goings ‘live’ – you can often pick up some nuances that you might not when watching from overseas. Here are some observations from my time there over the Christmas break.
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I did my own version of trying to predict how a Dem win in popular vote could translate into seats and came out with a much lower number than 538... when I plotted vote % against house seats it suggested 2-3% popular vote win would be enough for Dems.
Now admittedly gerrymandering has probably got worse over time - but I suspect that within the range 538 gave (5.5-8) it should be towards the lower end...
https://www.gillibrand.senate.gov/
After a quick look at the video of her tax cut speech, which she highlights on that page, I am not convinced she is a good speaker -- though to be fair, she might have a cold as she sounds a bit nasal and sniffs a lot. Whether that matters at this stage is unclear -- it seems pretty usual for American politicians to learn public speaking during the primaries.
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for next PM and will probably be a dead duck by August.
Labour Uncut have named him the politician of the year - the last four winners have been May, Cameron, Salmond and Mandela.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Rachman
Good article, Mr. Pedley, and especially useful to have a little odds list. Harris was tipped by Mr. Smithson a year or two ago at 67 (for the job, 26 for the nomination) so that's eminently hedgeable if anyone backed it (I did but with such a tiny stake it's not really worth hedging).
Might put a bit on Gillibrand.
Edited extra bit: unrelated market but Five Star and PD are both evens for most seats. How do PBers see that going?
Edit: Happy New Year all.
To maximise his profits he wanted to get rid of sitting tenants and relet the properties at much higher rents. He developed an effective three step approach to dealing with "unprofitable tenants".
tenants were offered a modest sum to leave
tenants' lives were made intolerable with all night music and parties in the rooms next door
Rachman's henchmen would go in and cut off electricity and water and break locks and lavatories
It was an effective strategy. The new tenants were usually immigrant families from the West Indies who had nowhere else to go and had to pay extortionate rents for tiny squalid rooms....
"But I, being rich and know better, have my dreams;
I have spread my dreams under your feet;
Tread softly because you tread on my dreams."
WB Yeats (adapted for Remainers)
67 was excellent odds, but at current prices it seems a bit early to be placing money on this race unless you have a particularly strong belief in one of the candidates. An awful lot can happen in the next twelve months...
Edited extra bit: oh, and happy new year
Lord Adonis, in his resignation letter, reminded me of Mandy Rice-Davies' famous quip.
A happy new year to everyone.
Edited to be strictly accurate.
Its tip for the next GE appears to be Rudd v Thornberry. Whether it has a future as a tipster remains to be seen. None of its previous predictions have come to anything.
From Liverpool. 1,600 cars destroyed. Is parking too close so dangerous? Any fire experts to advise?
Thanks Charles. I had found Rachman but as you spelled it differently I wondered if you were referring to someone else. He sounds a right charmer.
Of course, they didn't predict Corbyn would be leader or that there would be a hung parliament. But they're not bad predictors on the whole. If the message is unwelcome, that's very much Labour's problem.
In any case it wasn't their predictions I was referring too - it was the fate of the politicians it has previously picked for this accolade, one of whom was dead at the time, two of whom had been driven out of politics altogether within 18 months, and one of whom is still there but looks shaky. If Corbyn stays true to form, he's in for a shocker.
Don't put it past the American media to lean haaaaaaard into that narrative though.
But thanks for the article - and hpapy new year, everyone!
As for who wins the Democratic nomination in 2020 I think Sanders will run again and this time will win it, as Keiran suggests his supporters are motivated and organised. If he does not run then his support base will likely shift to Warren, though she is more likely to end up Sanders running mate in my view
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Italian_general_election,_2018
There would have been a fuck load more democrats (of both sexes) angry at him keeping his seat.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Italian_general_election,_2013
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42531669
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/947628428261560320
Though if Labour gained a few more seats from the SNP they could increase that lead but they would still almost certainly need SNP confidence and supply anyway
Re Poll(s) why should anyone trust them when they get things so hideously wrong? Why should 2018 be any better than 2017 or 2016 or 2015 for that matter?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018
In 2016 Leave was leading in the penultimate week but there was a swingback to Remain in the polls in the final week
At this point what really matters in US politics is the war. Trump has the disposition and the incentives to start one, and if it produces even a moderate rally-behind-the-flag effect it's going to be a tightrope for the Democrats.
Almost like a political casting couch.
It was in the context/aftermath of Harvey Weinstein.
Interesting thread from Keiran as always for which many thanks.
I don't think the question of "leadership" of the Democrats is important at this stage. The GOP controls all three elected bodies at this time as they did from 2000-06. There are Democrat Minority leaders in the senate and House and inasmuch as they are national figures that's where you start.
The primary process is about choosing the leader (or standard bearer or sacrificial offering, delete as appropriate) for the Presidential election. Trump could not have been described as a Republican "leader" in 2013 - indeed, most people had probably not considered him politically.
It is true that the process often starts with the Convention by which I mean a keynote Convention speech is often the way a potential Presidential candidate first comes to the sight of both the Party and the wider electorate - that was certainly true of both Clinton and Obama - so that puts Elizabeth Warren firmly in the picture.
That doesn't make her a leader, more a spokesperson.
In the well-established PB tradition of boasting about how I mentioned something before everybody else and how clever that makes me, I have mentioned Kirsten Gillibrand a couple of times in the past as a possible Dem candidate and I'm on at big prices but to be honest don't expect to collect.
The other issue for the Dems is whether they'll be facing Trump, Pence or A.N Other Republican. We've got used to two-term Presidents - Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama and before them Reagan but Ford, Carter and George H.W Bush all lost as incumbents so it's not inconceivable Trump could lose in 2020.
I don't think Trump is a man who wants to be remembered as a loser - I think if the polls continued to look bad he'd rather stand aside, claim his work was done and let Pence (who could well reunite the GOP more effectively while also preserving the Trump legacy) take his chance in 2020. If Pence wins, fine, if he loses, well, it won't be Donald's fault, will it ?
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has warned the United States that his country's nuclear capabilities are now complete and the nuclear launch button is always on his desk.
"The entire mainland of the US is within the range of our nuclear weapons and the nuclear button is always on the desk of my office. They should accurately be aware that this is not a threat but a reality," said Kim during his annual New Year's Day address, according to a CNN translation of the speech.
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/31/asia/kim-jong-un-new-year-address-nuclear/index.html
And at the moment they have a historically unpopular president.
When I was in Israel, I was with a large number of Hilary supporters. I commented that while I thought Trump was crazy I wasn't mad keen on the Clintons, which didn't make me popular. When asked why, I asked how they would feel if I had seduced a 22-year-old NQT in my department, who was under my professional care and direct management (I carefully didn't use the example of a 19-year-old student, because obviously different rules apply there anyway) even if she was perfectly willing. I suggested that they would feel uncomfortable sitting at a table with me.
There was a long silence and then muttered agreement. I was 33 at the time and in a far less junior position vis a vis my hypothetical girlfriend than Clinton was. But it would still, in my judgement, have been wrong. So was Clinton, although the real issue of course was that he lied about it.
The second isn't hugely important if Trump isn't the candidate
https://twitter.com/jelvisweinstein/status/909110782553595904?lang=en
Betfair exchange punters should note that the two independents who currently caucus with the Democrats are not included, i.e. four gains are needed. I do believe both independents are restanding, although I will check at some point.
Basically for Betfair, the Dems need to change the game by having more Republicans stand down before the election.
Happy New Year, everyone. Given that they seem better (bettor?!) for me than other events, may there be a crisis and a snap general election ...
I find it hard to see how the Democrats can take the Senate given the make up of the Seats up for grabs - they may even gain seats despite the national polls. Not every Republican senate candidate will be a Roy Moore with sexual abuse allegations against them - and he only just lost.
Would stay clear of next Democratic Nominee markets until Michele Obama and Zuckerberg`s intentions are clear.Could see either standing if Trump was to stand again and they thought they were the most likely to beat him.If the Warrens and Bidens were that good how come they did not try to be the Democratic nominee in 2016?
Trump is full of surprises; he may even last the term.
Hope all you culture vultures are enjoying the New Year's Day concert from Vienna.
He should have resigned, and if he didn't resign, Congress should have impeached him.
Trump won because he was able to get voters other Republicans would probably have not reached and this enabled him to win the big ticket states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania and hold Florida. Whether another Republican would have managed it is debatable - I think that's doubtful a more establishment GOP candidate would have.
These voters have stayed loyal to Trump so far but is their loyalty only to Trump or to the GOP in general ? Can the GOP rely on "Trump Democrats" or "Trump Independents" if there is no Trump on the ticket - possibly with Pence, doubtful with anyone else.
Recent history also tells us incumbency is no bar to a primary challenge - will a GOP candidate challenge Trump if the 2018 midterms are very bad ?
One Clinton union supporter just before Florida declared for me summed up her problem - 'record numbers voted in Philadelphia, and in North Miami, and when the votes in cities all over America are counted I think you will see her win.'
Only preached to the choir - and not to all of that. Never thought of the rural hinterlands that swung it for Trump.
Once again I am struck with the parallels with May's disastrous campaign this year.
Frankly there is no chance even throwing in the independents with the Dems either, the map is savage.
I'm sorry for the owners though. Not a good night for them.
Given the Clinton's campaign total campaigning incompetence they could have well let some of the '''firewall''' slip through their fingers into the R column.
It also explains why Jacob Rees Mogg leads polling as to who Tory members want to succeed May as someone who can motivate the base whereas the establishment May's manifesto seemed designed precisely to turn off the Tory base.