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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks and his predictions for 2018
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks and his predictions for 2018
I broke my habit of recent years last year and didn’t make any predictions for the coming year (I had no time at the end of last year). That was fortunate because I would have got almost everything wrong. However, it is a good discipline to make these predictions if only so that I can identify what I thought was going on and think about why I was wrong (or right) later on. That way I might actually get better.
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http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/12/27/alex-jones-says-the-new-star-wars-is-total-sjw-and-princess-leia-is-a-lesbian/amp/
Do you really want to be in that crowd?
'If the government wants to start converting Remain supporters in numbers it is going to need to show that it can include their values in its vision of Brexit. ' - I'm not sure anything will hugely move the dial on this except Brexit itself. I don't see that it will change until we've left.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/27/labour-voters-could-abandon-party-over-brexit-stance-poll-finds
What one can make out is that the core Labour vote is about 30% (as a quarter of Labour voters "might" change their minds, and at present most think the party is aligned with them and some would be upset if it proved otherwise. It's not clear how many want an immediate policy switch, or if they actually care enough to change their votes - some clearly would, but in general I think voters accept that it's difficult to take a firm stance on a moving target.
Incidentally, while I agree with Alastair that a deal will be done, I'm sure there will be moments in 2018 when it will appear otherwise. That's how EU negotiations work. DYOR, but punters may want to bet accordingly.
Whose demand? Is he dismissing it or the party? A lot of hypothetical scenarios rely on him changing tune on that score.
He's a very professional troll after all.
It's the sort of thing that would be funny if plenty didn't really believe it (whether he does or not I have no idea).
Happy New Year everyone.
He came across quite well reminiscent of fellow historian Tristam Hunt.Checked his odds on betfair exchange for next tory leader and it was a 1000/1!
Took that out before someone else could and before I could find out if I am unaware of something stigmatic about him.
1). There will be a Brexit deal. Of course there will. The EU will get what it wants. Doesnt it always. It is after all a very powerful Mafiosi, able to destroy economies if it does not. I think there will be some concessions on freedom of movement however.
2). Of course the party leaders will stay the same if illness or death doesnt decree otherwise. Theresa May will be prime minister, and Corbyn is a fanatic who loves the adulation and the songs and the Corbyn colouring books and tee shirts.
3). There will probably more cabinet departures. Probably. If you look back at British political history, there are very few years under any government when there are not cabinet departures. There was at least one for nearly every one of the Thatcher and Blair years. Why would Theresa May's government be any different.
I would be bold however, and suggest that there will be some rising cabinet stars tipped for the top job when May goes.
4) Labour and the Tories will remain neck and neck in the polls. Probably. But the fact remains that oppositions should be streets ahead. No opposition has ever won a general election without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections. That rule has never been broken.
An interesting domestic prediction is Boris 'Bonking' Johnson gets caught by a Russian honey-trap and is filmed/ taped or photographed in the throws of passion and is forced to resign.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/946144686720344066
Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
I suspect both will get awards heaped upon them.
Both seemed OK-ish to me; moderately entertaining, but not remarkable. Neither seemed to offer much more than the original trio of movies, which considering the intervening three and a half decades is a little disappointing.
Hair and Make-up too. The transformation is exceptional.
https://twitter.com/leobarasi/status/946144754210885632
(b) even if he did, he wouldn't win
On topic, Alastair has been uncharacteristically vague in his predictions. 2 is probably right. 3 is true in a literal sense ('There will be more Cabinet departures'), but is wrong in analysis; the three resignations under Theresa May haven't been caused by lack of loyalty nor by her being willing to throw ministers under buses, but by three individuals being unfortunately prone, retrospectively at least, to self-induced prostration under buses. 4 is probably right.
The one I would really take issue with is 1. Yes, there will be a Brexit deal, unless things go badly wrong (still a significant risk). However, every indication is that the EU is gradually dissolving its red lines. Of course, any deal will be depicted by the irreconcilables and partisan opponents of the government as being on the EU's terms, but I don't think that will be the reality. We will, in all likelihood, have some modicum of having our cake and eating it, with good access to the Single Market but without freedom of movement de jure.
Which leads me to my main prediction for 2018. I agree with Alastair both that there will with alarums, excursions and brouhahas on the Brexit negotiations, and that the UK economy will surprise to the upside*. But I go further: Theresa May's political reputation will surprise to the upside.
" This is not investment advice, but you might like to consider the discount to NAV of British Land... Do your own research, etc etc.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/20m-bill-to-taxpayer-mayor-takes-control-of-london-stadium-a3707266.html?amp
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/946143892742836224
Incidentally, Robbins has been working on the Northern Ireland deal with the EU from the beginning. If it proves to be a slow-burning stitch-up of the Brexiteers, his, and May's, fingerprints are all over it.
https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/876842084078170113
1. Agree with Alistair. I’d be more specific and say we will do a deal and say we will have good access to single market and maintain freedom of movement in practice. A few Tory Brexiteers will fuss but most will be persuaded by the Gove line that we are out and have the power to change things further in future/when they stand as leader.
2. Suspect party leaders will stay but I also think May could be forced into giving an exit date.
3. I think no/very few Cabinet departures and no reshuffle. But the briefings against each other will intensify. I think we will see much greater clarity on who is planning to replace Theresa, deals will be done. Total guess but I think both Gove and Leadsom will offer their support to someone if they can be Chancellor. High profile leavers will be in demand to give the Remainer leader hopefuls some street cred with the membership.
4. I think Tories may pull ahead of Labour slightly after Brexit deal is announced/clear but otherwise both parties will drift downwards in polls back to the 30s.
5. UK Economy will under perform as growth drifts downwards. No recession.
6. Republicans will lose House in mid terms, just hold onto Senate (possibly needing Pence for tiebreaks). Dems will begin impeachment process but probably jump the gun. The evidence from Mueller will be both damning and deniable and ultimately the Republican Senators won’t back impeachment in significant numbers.
7. My black swan event/longshot - some kind of major NHS catastrophe a la Grenfell which captures the public consciousness..
The shadow chancellor, together with the Labour Party chairman Ian Lavery and shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, has endorsed the policies of a Labour think-tank that wants to repeal all prohibitive trade union laws passed since 1979, when Margaret Thatcher came to power.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/27/john-mcdonnell-backs-return-flying-pickets-labour-drive-take/
Manchester City pay £3 million a year rent for the Etihad Stadium compared to West Ham paying £2.5 million a year for the Olympic Stadium.
For starters as City gave Maine Road to the council when they became tenants of the Etihad.
Secondly City spent close to £25 million to refurb the ground when they took possession.
Thirdly City have spent close to £300 million on developing the ground and surrounding areas.
Fourthly any sponsorship deals of the Etihad the council get a proportion of the income.
2. How crap is the Met. They can’t do rape cases and now children are being let down. What the hell do they do well?
Edit: In all seriousness, maybe the Met and Met Office should swap jobs for a week, just to shake things up.
Maybe this article will turn out to be absolutely fine - but ultimately I try to limit the amount of misinformation I get and wait for better sources.
The West Ham deal is for 25 days usage a year.
In addition the conversion of the Etihad was to remove the running track and prevent it being used for future Athletics events - something that is explicitly prohibited at the Olympic Stadium.
The main annoyance (outside of the fringe that TSE mentioned earlier who see political and social overtones in everything they view) seems to be from the fanboys who are finding out that, as Luke Skywalker says in the trailer, “This is not going to go the way you think”.
England in danger of losing their strong position here.
I think I concur with Mr Meeks that British politics, barring a serious external event, will spend 2018 in a holding position blowing Brexit snow from the runway.
One mistake. "We should ignore them all. We won't" - why so modest as to not use "I" in that sentence!
Mileage may vary on that last one, but your fourth reason is I think the biggest complaint, and the least reasonable in terms of backlash imo.
Night all.
I know his average is low compared to others on the all time list, and he’s no Sanggakara or Tendulkar, but the additional challenge from being an opener I don’t think is acknowledged enough -generally openers are not the most fluid, talented scorers in a team, and it’s even harder to get not outs.t
Moving at a fair lick since Broad got in, and broad having one of his lucky innings, the only way he scores runs anymore.
Edit - do people talk in terms of East and west hemispheres?